Revised Severe Weather Operation Plan 2012 Brooke Taber 2012 Warm Season Workshop 2 May 2012 Brooke...

Revised Severe Weather Operation Plan 2012

Revised Severe Weather Operation Plan 2012

Brooke Taber

2012 Warm Season Workshop

2 May 2012

Brooke Taber

2012 Warm Season Workshop

2 May 2012

2

Motivation/GoalMotivation/Goal

Improve staffing and utilization of workstations during historic events

Updated to include social media and public information officer for improved DSS

Better description of events with previous severe/hydro events reference in staffing models

Improve overall SA with team approach to operations

Improve staffing and utilization of workstations during historic events

Updated to include social media and public information officer for improved DSS

Better description of events with previous severe/hydro events reference in staffing models

Improve overall SA with team approach to operations

3

Severe weather team produced a list of duties and responsibilities associated with pre-storm, during storm, and after storm

Developed Excel spreadsheet, then placed into SWOP staffing charts

Team revised event descriptions with storm write up reference material

Severe weather team produced a list of duties and responsibilities associated with pre-storm, during storm, and after storm

Developed Excel spreadsheet, then placed into SWOP staffing charts

Team revised event descriptions with storm write up reference material

SWOP DevelopmentSWOP Development

4

SWOP GuidelinesSWOP Guidelines

Have flexibility, no two events are similar

Use only as guidance and adjust as the situation or event changes

Beware of warning fatigue and have people potentially rotate working the radar

Place people in areas of their strengths, especially during big events

Have flexibility, no two events are similar

Use only as guidance and adjust as the situation or event changes

Beware of warning fatigue and have people potentially rotate working the radar

Place people in areas of their strengths, especially during big events

5

Staffing Model 4Staffing Model 4NON-SEVERE, CONVECTIVE WEATHER: Minimum Staff =4 Definition: Convection, generally within a synoptic precipitation area. SPC general thunderstorm outlook area. Not severe, not expected to become severe. Small hail possible, locally heavy rain. No watches or warnings for severe weather or flooding would be anticipated. Position Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of

NWS ESTF products (AFD, ZFP, Grids, SPS, Web graphics/headline,etc), NWS Chat

LX 2

Aviation Forecaster (long term)

Routine aviation products/long term grids, meso analysis and monitoring radar/hydro trends, SPS, NWS Chat/briefings, phones

LX 1

Radar-1/Hydro

Continuous Radar Watch (Issues warning/follow-ups) Monitoring Hydro

LX 3

Public Service Desk Nowcasts, NWR Operations, making/answering phone calls, along with routine products/social media. Assist in watching radar/hydro trends, Monitor D-Lan, interviews/briefings

LX 5/Public Service Desk Workstation

NON-SEVERE, CONVECTIVE WEATHER: Minimum Staff =4 Definition: Convection, generally within a synoptic precipitation area. SPC general thunderstorm outlook area. Not severe, not expected to become severe. Small hail possible, locally heavy rain. No watches or warnings for severe weather or flooding would be anticipated. Position Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of

NWS ESTF products (AFD, ZFP, Grids, SPS, Web graphics/headline,etc), NWS Chat

LX 2


Routine aviation products/long term grids, meso analysis and monitoring radar/hydro trends, SPS, NWS Chat/briefings, phones

LX 1

Radar-1/Hydro


LX 3

Public Service Desk Nowcasts, NWR Operations, making/answering phone calls, along with routine products/social media. Assist in watching radar/hydro trends, Monitor D-Lan, interviews/briefings

LX 5/Public Service Desk Workstation

6

Staffing Model 4-5Staffing Model 4-5ISOLATED SEVERE/HYDRO ISSUES: Minimum Staff =4 or 5 Definition: Very disorganized and very isolated severe convection with a low threat to life. SPC general thunderstorm outlook with maybe part of the CWA in a slight risk. A couple of warnings maybe issued for marginally severe hail/wind. Convection is very short lived and pulse like. High CAPE (2000 J/KG)/low shear (0-3km around 15 knots) with limited moisture/triggers. Also, some slow moving storms may cause a few hydro products to be issued. Part of the CWA may be in a watch box. This plan would be utilized frequently during a normal convective season. For example, June 25, 2005 Williston Pulse Severe. Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of

NWS ESTF products (AFD, ZFP, Grids, SPS, WCN, Web graphics/headline,etc), NWS Chat

LX 2


Routine aviation products, long term, SPS watches, NOWs, HWO, Chat/briefings, phones

LX 1

Radar-1/Hydro or Radar-2/Hydro


LX 3 or LX 4

Public Service Desk Social Media, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, Monitor D-Lan/HAM Radios/briefings/interviews

LX 5/Public Service Workstation

ISOLATED SEVERE/HYDRO ISSUES: Minimum Staff =4 or 5 Definition: Very disorganized and very isolated severe convection with a low threat to life. SPC general thunderstorm outlook with maybe part of the CWA in a slight risk. A couple of warnings maybe issued for marginally severe hail/wind. Convection is very short lived and pulse like. High CAPE (2000 J/KG)/low shear (0-3km around 15 knots) with limited moisture/triggers. Also, some slow moving storms may cause a few hydro products to be issued. Part of the CWA may be in a watch box. This plan would be utilized frequently during a normal convective season. For example, June 25, 2005 Williston Pulse Severe. Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of


LX 2


Routine aviation products, long term, SPS watches, NOWs, HWO, Chat/briefings, phones

LX 1

Radar-1/Hydro or Radar-2/Hydro


LX 3 or LX 4

Public Service Desk Social Media, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, Monitor D-Lan/HAM Radios/briefings/interviews


For example, June 25, 2005 Williston Pulse Severe

7

Staffing Model 5-6Staffing Model 5-6SCATTERED SEVERE/HYDRO ISSUES: Minimum Staff =5 or 6 Definition: Scattered small-scale organized convection, but low threat to life. Sometimes, within an SPC outlook area for slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Expecting some severe warnings along with the potential for some flooding and associated hydro products to be issued. High CAPE (>2000 J/KG) with some modest shear (0-3km=25 to 30 knots), along with a cold front with some upper level moisture/lift. Convection is pulse with brief winds gust to 60 mph and penny/nickel size hail. Typical severe weather event, occurring 10 to15 times annually (most events). Sectorize by radar or state, or area coverage, east-west. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods. For example, August 21, 2011 severe weather event. Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of


LX 2

Aviation Forecaster/SWAN Routine aviation products, airport ops briefings, SPS, HWO. Meso-analysis with convective/hydro trends/SA, Chat, Phones

LX 1

Radar/Hydro-1 and (sectorize) Radar/Hydro-2

Continuous Radar Watch (Issues warning/follow-ups associated with severe or hydro)

LX 3 or LX 4

Warning Coordinator Warning Dissemination, Coord. with SPC/EM’s/FEMA, media interviews/briefings, Work event logs, focus on big picture. Monitors convective/hydro trends/SA, NWS chat, phones, organizes storm survey team

LX 4 or LX 6

Public Service Desk Social Media, Nowcasts, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan


SCATTERED SEVERE/HYDRO ISSUES: Minimum Staff =5 or 6 Definition: Scattered small-scale organized convection, but low threat to life. Sometimes, within an SPC outlook area for slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Expecting some severe warnings along with the potential for some flooding and associated hydro products to be issued. High CAPE (>2000 J/KG) with some modest shear (0-3km=25 to 30 knots), along with a cold front with some upper level moisture/lift. Convection is pulse with brief winds gust to 60 mph and penny/nickel size hail. Typical severe weather event, occurring 10 to15 times annually (most events). Sectorize by radar or state, or area coverage, east-west. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods. For example, August 21, 2011 severe weather event. Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of


LX 2


LX 1

Radar/Hydro-1 and (sectorize) Radar/Hydro-2

Continuous Radar Watch (Issues warning/follow-ups associated with severe or hydro)

LX 3 or LX 4

Warning Coordinator Warning Dissemination, Coord. with SPC/EM’s/FEMA, media interviews/briefings, Work event logs, focus on big picture. Monitors convective/hydro trends/SA, NWS chat, phones, organizes storm survey team

LX 4 or LX 6

Public Service Desk Social Media, Nowcasts, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan


For example, August 21, 2011 severe weather event

8

Definition: Scattered to widespread severe/hydro issues, which requires two radars to cover completely. SPC outlook usually will have the CWA in Slight Risk or higher for severe thunderstorms but the threat to life is low. A high CAPE (>2000 J/kg), along with a moderate to high shear (0 to 3km=40 knots) environment. Severe thunderstorm warnings and/or flash flood warnings are issued. Very active weather day with both severe and hydro products issued. Occurs 2 to 5 times a year. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods.

Definition: Scattered to widespread severe/hydro issues, which requires two radars to cover completely. SPC outlook usually will have the CWA in Slight Risk or higher for severe thunderstorms but the threat to life is low. A high CAPE (>2000 J/kg), along with a moderate to high shear (0 to 3km=40 knots) environment. Severe thunderstorm warnings and/or flash flood warnings are issued. Very active weather day with both severe and hydro products issued. Occurs 2 to 5 times a year. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods.

Staffing Model 6Staffing Model 6

For example, May 9, 2009 (Washington County Tornado)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/09May2009/

9

Staffing Model 6Staffing Model 6Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of


LX 2


LX 1

Radar/Hydro-Sector 1 Continuous Radar Watch (Issues warning/follow-ups associated with severe or hydro)

LX 3


LX 4

Warning Coordinator/Public Information Officer

Warning Dissemination, Coord. with SPC/EM’s/FEMA, media interviews/briefings, Work event logs, focus on big picture. Monitors convective/hydro trends/SA, NWS chat, phones, organizes storm survey team

LX 6/Ops area

Public Service Desk Social Media, Nowcasts, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan, media interviews


10

Staffing Model 7Staffing Model 7

WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AND OR MAJOR FLOODING (RECORD BREAKING POSSIBLE:

Definition: Widespread severe convection or hydro issues, which requires two radars to cover completely. SPC outlook usually will have the CWA in Slight Risk or greater for severe thunderstorms some threat to life. Convection is widespread with multiple lines, which produces extensive flooding or from a tropical system. A numbers of severe thunderstorm warnings and/or flash flood warnings issued. This staffing model maybe used once or twice a year at most and could be needed for several forecast periods. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods.

For example, May 26th-27th Event (widespread flooding) or July 18, 2008 Event (Cambridge Tornado)

WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AND OR MAJOR FLOODING (RECORD BREAKING POSSIBLE:

Definition: Widespread severe convection or hydro issues, which requires two radars to cover completely. SPC outlook usually will have the CWA in Slight Risk or greater for severe thunderstorms some threat to life. Convection is widespread with multiple lines, which produces extensive flooding or from a tropical system. A numbers of severe thunderstorm warnings and/or flash flood warnings issued. This staffing model maybe used once or twice a year at most and could be needed for several forecast periods. Also, please be thinking about warning fatigue and rotating radar operators, especially during the larger and more complex events, which may extend several forecast periods.

For example, May 26th-27th Event (widespread flooding) or July 18, 2008 Event (Cambridge Tornado)






http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/18July2008/






http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/18July2008/

11



LX 2


LX 1


LX 3


LX 4

Warning Coordinator (Facilitator)/Floater

Coord. with SPC/WFO’s, Meso analysis, monitors convective/hydro trends/SA, Chat, fills in where needed/completes event logs, Phones

Operations Area/Cubicle 2

Public Information Officer

Warning Dissemination, EM’s/FEMA, media interviews/briefings, NWS chat/D-LAN, Phones, organizes storm survey team

LX 6

Public Service Desk Social Media, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan, media interviews/RER info


12

Staffing Model 8Staffing Model 8EXTREME SEVERE/HYDRO ISSUES (HISTORIC):

Definition: Organized, widespread, severe convection and hydro issues. Life threatening scenario with supercell storms, tornadoes, derecho, or a tropical system, with widespread historic flooding. SPC outlook has most of the CWA in moderate to high risk or highlighted in heavy rain potential. Also, expecting multiple thunderstorm/tornado watch boxes with numerous warnings. A historic event with widespread and significant damage, with numerous severe and hydro products issued. Briefings and damage surveys could last for weeks during the clean-up process. These events occur once every 5 to 10 years and this staffing model would not be used very often.

For example, Hurricane Irene on August 28, 2011.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Irene2011/

13


NWS ESTF products (AFD, ZFP, Grids, AFM, PFM, Etc, Web Graphics/headline, WCN)

LX 2

Aviation Forecaster/SWAN Routine aviation products,, monitoring hydro trends, SPS, HWO. Monitor convective/hydro trends/SA, Chat, Phones

LX 1


EM’s/FEMA, and media interviews/briefings, NWS chat/D-LAN, RER info, Phones

LX 6


LX 3


LX 4

Floater Position Fill-in where/when needed, phones, SA, monitor hydro/convective trends

Operations Area/Any workstation/cubicle 2

Office Warning Coordinator (Facilitator)

Warning Dissemination, Coord. with SPC and surrounding offices, Work/Event logs, Focus on big picture. Consults with radar one and two, Utilizes NWS Chat/D-Lan, Organizes storm survey teams.

Operations Area/cubicle 1

Public Service Desk Social Media, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan, media interviews/RER Info


Position Brief Description Workstation Public Forecaster (short term) Creation, updating, and issuance of

NWS ESTF products (AFD, ZFP, Grids, AFM, PFM, Etc, Web Graphics/headline, WCN)

LX 2

Aviation Forecaster/SWAN Routine aviation products,, monitoring hydro trends, SPS, HWO. Monitor convective/hydro trends/SA, Chat, Phones

LX 1


EM’s/FEMA, and media interviews/briefings, NWS chat/D-LAN, RER info, Phones

LX 6


LX 3


LX 4

Floater Position Fill-in where/when needed, phones, SA, monitor hydro/convective trends

Operations Area/Any workstation/cubicle 2

Office Warning Coordinator (Facilitator)

Warning Dissemination, Coord. with SPC and surrounding offices, Work/Event logs, Focus on big picture. Consults with radar one and two, Utilizes NWS Chat/D-Lan, Organizes storm survey teams.

Operations Area/cubicle 1

Public Service Desk Social Media, NWR operations, making/ answering phone calls, UCP manipulation, LSR, among routine products, monitor Disaster Lan, media interviews/RER Info


14

Position DescriptionsPosition Descriptions

Public Forecaster (short term) -This person is responsible for creation, updating, and issuance of all NWS Public enhanced short term forecast products (ESTF) (AFD, ZFP, Grids, AFM, PFM, RVD, and Web Graphics) and watch information (WCN). Potential coordination with SPC.

Aviation Forecaster (long term) -This person is responsible for creation, updating, and issuance of all NWS aviation products, such as TAFs, Aviation Discussions, days 4-7 of the forecast, and the NFDRS products and could brief airport ops. When utilized, this forecaster could also issue the office’s NOW, Special Weather Statements, along with updating the HWO related to the severe weather event

Public Forecaster (short term) -This person is responsible for creation, updating, and issuance of all NWS Public enhanced short term forecast products (ESTF) (AFD, ZFP, Grids, AFM, PFM, RVD, and Web Graphics) and watch information (WCN). Potential coordination with SPC.

Aviation Forecaster (long term) -This person is responsible for creation, updating, and issuance of all NWS aviation products, such as TAFs, Aviation Discussions, days 4-7 of the forecast, and the NFDRS products and could brief airport ops. When utilized, this forecaster could also issue the office’s NOW, Special Weather Statements, along with updating the HWO related to the severe weather event

15


RADAR/Hydro 1 -This primary Radar Operator will be responsible for issuance of warnings and follow-up statements across the entire CWA until a second radar person is introduced to the team. RADAR 1 will utilize Warn Gen for all warnings and statements. This position will obviously be utilized in all severe weather events.

RADAR/Hydro 2 -When level 5 or 6 staffing is required, a second Radar Operator will be utilized. At this point, the warning area becomes sectored. This additional Radar Operator will be responsible for issuance of warnings and follow-up statements across his/her sector of the CWA. RADAR 2 will also employ Warn Gen for warnings and statements. The Shift Leader and WACO should work together to ensure that the workload is evenly distributed between the two Radar Operators.

RADAR/Hydro 1 -This primary Radar Operator will be responsible for issuance of warnings and follow-up statements across the entire CWA until a second radar person is introduced to the team. RADAR 1 will utilize Warn Gen for all warnings and statements. This position will obviously be utilized in all severe weather events.

RADAR/Hydro 2 -When level 5 or 6 staffing is required, a second Radar Operator will be utilized. At this point, the warning area becomes sectored. This additional Radar Operator will be responsible for issuance of warnings and follow-up statements across his/her sector of the CWA. RADAR 2 will also employ Warn Gen for warnings and statements. The Shift Leader and WACO should work together to ensure that the workload is evenly distributed between the two Radar Operators.

16


Public Service Desk -This person is responsible for things such as initiating/receiving calls to trained spotters or other affiliations, sending Local Storm Reports, and social media updates, (web graphics, Facebook, Twitter), and D-LAN, possible media interviews, make changes to the ORPG for radar performance and normal PSD duties (CLI, REC, HYD, and creating local climate maps). Furthermore, monitor CRS, Disaster Lan, NWS Chat and HAM Radios.

Public Information Officer– This person will be responsible for coordination with FEMA/VEM/EM’s/ and local media through emails and phone. Also, this person will monitor Disaster LAN and NWS-chat. In addition, this person would be responsible for information in Public Information Statements and Record Event Reports. Also, the PIO could be responsible for updating social media outlets and the web page.

Public Service Desk -This person is responsible for things such as initiating/receiving calls to trained spotters or other affiliations, sending Local Storm Reports, and social media updates, (web graphics, Facebook, Twitter), and D-LAN, possible media interviews, make changes to the ORPG for radar performance and normal PSD duties (CLI, REC, HYD, and creating local climate maps). Furthermore, monitor CRS, Disaster Lan, NWS Chat and HAM Radios.

Public Information Officer– This person will be responsible for coordination with FEMA/VEM/EM’s/ and local media through emails and phone. Also, this person will monitor Disaster LAN and NWS-chat. In addition, this person would be responsible for information in Public Information Statements and Record Event Reports. Also, the PIO could be responsible for updating social media outlets and the web page.

17

Position DescriptionsPosition DescriptionsWarning Coordinator -This person is the communications link between the other operational positions. Keeps track of all watches, warnings, advisories, statements, public products issued, and updating the radar operator (s) on the status of warnings/statements issued as well as other critical products. The WACO can also coordinate with the SPC or adjacent offices about watch information via 12 Planet or the phone, but mainly acts as a facilitator to guarantee effective communication. Finally, the WACO could be responsible for coordination with FEMA/VEM/EM’s/airport ops, and local media through emails, Disaster LAN and NWS-chat. (models 6,7, and 8)

Severe Weather Analyst or Mesoscale Forecaster (SWAN) - This person will assist the severe weather team by identifying mesoscale features or boundaries, which could initiate convection or cause hydro issues. The SWAN will focus on near storm environments and will complete a convective checklist.

Warning Coordinator -This person is the communications link between the other operational positions. Keeps track of all watches, warnings, advisories, statements, public products issued, and updating the radar operator (s) on the status of warnings/statements issued as well as other critical products. The WACO can also coordinate with the SPC or adjacent offices about watch information via 12 Planet or the phone, but mainly acts as a facilitator to guarantee effective communication. Finally, the WACO could be responsible for coordination with FEMA/VEM/EM’s/airport ops, and local media through emails, Disaster LAN and NWS-chat. (models 6,7, and 8)

Severe Weather Analyst or Mesoscale Forecaster (SWAN) - This person will assist the severe weather team by identifying mesoscale features or boundaries, which could initiate convection or cause hydro issues. The SWAN will focus on near storm environments and will complete a convective checklist.

18

Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts

Have flexibility and try to develop a plan early based on expected convection

Remember: use only as guidance and try to share best practices with staff members

Be-aware of scheduling conflicts and summer leave when limited staffing is available

Have flexibility and try to develop a plan early based on expected convection

Remember: use only as guidance and try to share best practices with staff members

Be-aware of scheduling conflicts and summer leave when limited staffing is available

19

Remember Always Be Prepared and Expect the Unexpected

Remember Always Be Prepared and Expect the Unexpected

Look: Snow shovel at 430 Poker Hill Road in North

Underhill, Vermont (Prepared for the next

storm) and the home of the most snow in VT

20

Any Questions???Any Questions???

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