REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A PANDEMIC …...Oct 30, 2020  · Ppt. chg. vs. YA Ppt. chg....

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Part October 2020 REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A PANDEMIC ENVIRONMENT COVID-19 The Changing Shape of the CPG Demand Curve 30

Transcript of REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A PANDEMIC …...Oct 30, 2020  · Ppt. chg. vs. YA Ppt. chg....

  • Part October

    2020

    REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A PANDEMIC ENVIRONMENT

    COVID-19

    The Changing Shape of the CPG Demand Curve 30

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFollowing the COVID-19 pandemic surge, CPG has seen rising price/mix across channels, driven by a combination of fewer promotions, shifts to more premium products and increasing shelf price. While these increases are starting to slow, price/mix growth remains well above historical averages. In this pandemic environment, continued high demand and supply constraints have lowered price sensitivity of shoppers, particularly in e-commerce and grocery channels. In this report we focus on how price and promotion sensitivity has changed in the largest channel, grocery, which has gained share during the pandemic. A variety of pricing and promotion strategies are used in this channel, enabling IRI to measure price elasticity accurately. We contrast how shoppers react to price in grocery channel vs. other leading channels such as e-commerce, mass merchandisers and drug.

    Key Pricing and Promotional Trends

    • Shoppers have become less price sensitive in edible categories and even more in some supply-constrained nonedible categories.

    • Shoppers are willing to pay more while shopping in e-commerce and grocery channels for high demand categories such as meat,

    frozen meals and paper products.

    • Mainstream and value brands, typically more price sensitive, have seen slightly greater declines in sensitivity than premium brands.

    Premium products are, as expected, the least price sensitive and are in higher demand even among lower income shoppers.

    • Sensitivity to promotional pricing fell more than everyday prices with a reduction in promotions in many categories. Promotion levels

    and promotional investment efficiency are returning to normal levels for most categories.

    Implications

    • Optimize revenue management practices to reflect K-shaped economic recovery:

    − Ensure adequate opening price points and value products for low-income shoppers.

    − Drive sales of premium and super premium products to shoppers who are willing to redirect more of their discretionary income

    to CPG products.

    − Refine price-pack-channel architecture to capture emerging growth demand spaces (e.g., nonedible in grocery, e-commerce).

    • Fine tune assortment to meet the unique needs of premium and value customers.

    • Track promotional execution and effectiveness to direct investments to maximize returns.

    • Understand the effect of your pricing and promotion on specific shopper segments in order to drive penetration and incremental

    revenue.

    • Continuously monitor price and promotional elasticity at granular levels and adapt revenue growth management practices.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3

    PRICING ANDPROMOTION TRENDS

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4

    CPG Price / Mix Growth Accelerated Since March,

    But High Growth Is Starting to Slow in Recent Periods

    2020 CPG Price / Mix1 and Sales % Change vs. YA / MULO Including ePOS2

    1.8 1.8

    3.95.0 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.7

    3.8

    2.9 2.63.3

    6.4 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.74.8

    8 WE

    2/23/20

    4 WE

    3/22/20

    4 WE

    4/19/20

    4 WE

    5/17/20

    4 WE

    6/14/20

    4 WE

    7/12/20

    4 WE

    8/9/20

    4 WE

    9/6/20

    4 WE

    10/4/20

    -0.2 36.3 17.3 19.4 10.4 9.4 9.5 6.6 8.3

    1.6 38.7 21.9 25.3 16.4 15.2 14.7 11.6 12.3

    -1.9 29.3 -1.3 2.6 -0.2 1.3 2.4 -2.2 0.1

    0.9 32.7 1.9 9.2 5.8 7.4 8.2 3.3 4.9

    Price / Mix per Volume

    Est. Volume

    Dollars

    EDIBLE

    Price / mix

    has grown

    on average

    2.5%over last

    10 years

    Price / mix

    growth last

    exceeded

    5% in

    2008

    1. Dollar-weighted price per volume change across categories. 2. Includes e-commerce Click & Collect from reporting retailers. Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20.

    NONEDIBLE

    Price / Mix per Volume

    Est. Volume

    Dollars

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5

    Reduced Promotions Are the Main Driver of Increased Price / Mix Growth, But

    Increases in Everyday Prices and Premiumization Are Also Contributing to Growth

    Decomposition of Price per Volume % Change vs. YA / Grocery Channel / 26 WE 10/4/20

    1.6%

    1.6%

    2.2%

    1.6%

    1.0%

    1.0%

    3.9%

    4.8%

    4.2%

    4.1%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    2.9%

    1.3%

    0.8%

    1.0%

    2.9%

    1.7%

    Ice Cream

    Frozen Dinners

    Frozen Pizza 7.7%

    Salty Snacks

    Carbonated Soft Drinks

    Reduction in Promotion

    Shampoo

    4.7%

    Mix Shift / PremiumizationShelf Price Increases

    8.4%

    6.7%

    7.2%

    4.8%

    EXAMPLES

    Total Price / Vol Change

    Note: Shelf Price refers to changes in everyday price at item level. Promotions includes promotion frequency and depth (driven by frequency). Mix shift refers to different in product mix vs. YA, driven by shifts to more premium brands (positive effect) countering shift to larger pack sizes (negative effect). Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20. IRI Strategic Analytics

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6

    Price Promotion Was Initially Less Frequent,

    Yet Is Returning in Recent Months

    2020 CPG Promotional Index / MULO

    100.789.7

    60.6 57.5 65.969.3

    86.5 88.2 90.0

    102.092.5

    52.6 45.3 53.356.1

    73.8 72.7 75.0

    Promotional index defined as % of dollar sales sold with any merchandising condition, indexed to YA value. Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20.

    8 WE

    2/23/20

    4 WE

    3/22/20

    4 WE

    4/19/20

    4 WE

    5/17/20

    4 WE

    6/14/20

    4 WE

    7/12/20

    4 WE

    8/9/20

    4 WE

    9/6/20

    4 WE

    10/4/20

    EDIBLE

    NONEDIBLE

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7

    With Increased At-Home Spending, Consumers Are Trading Up to

    More Premium Products in Grocery and Other Large Format Channels…

    Price Tier Growth by Channel / Dollar Share in 40 Largest Categories1

    15.6% 14.8%

    9.3% 8.8%

    47.7% 47.8%

    11.1% 11.6%

    16.3% 16.9%

    Value

    Private Label

    Mainstream

    Super Premium

    Premium

    +0.9

    +0.3

    -0.2

    -0.4

    -0.6

    +0.6

    +0.3

    -0.4

    -0.2

    -0.3

    Ppt. chg. vs. YA

    Ppt. chg. vs. YA

    Ppt. chg. vs. YA

    19.3% 19.4%

    10.7% 9.9%

    46.6% 45.9%

    10.2% 10.9%

    13.3% 13.8%

    Private Label

    Super Premium

    Premium

    Value

    Mainstream

    +0.6

    0.0

    -1.2

    -0.2

    +0.8

    Ppt. chg. vs. YA

    +1.0

    +0.7

    -1.2

    -0.5

    +0.1

    1. Top 25 largest edible and top 15 largest nonedible CPG categories. Price tier defined as avg price per volume vs. subcategory. Super Premium = >+50% above subcategory average, Premium = +25% to +50%, Mainstream = -25% to +25%, Value =

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8

    …With Largest Growth Among Premium Products in high demand

    Household Cleaning and Beverage Alcohol Categories

    Vitamins,

    Bread

    & Ice

    Creamare also seeing

    gains in

    Premium, while Value and

    Private Label lose share

    Share of Dollar Sales in Largest Categories1 for Key Price Tiers / Grocery Channels

    Top Premium & Super Premium Growth Categories

    Category12 WE Oct-4

    Share

    L12 Share

    ppt. chg. vs. YA

    Soap 32.9% 10.1

    Household Cleaner 37.2% 6.5

    Paper Towels 45.4% 6.1

    Spirits/Liquor 45.0% 4.6

    Beer/Ale/Alcoholic Cider 35.0% 3.2

    Wine 51.6% 2.7

    Coffee 29.6% 2.2

    Pet Food 48.8% 1.9

    Dish Detergent 55.5% 1.9

    Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets 57.0% 1.8

    Top Mainstream Growth Categories

    Category12 WE Oct-4

    Share

    L12 Share

    ppt. chg. vs. YA

    Internal Analgesics 35.8% 2.3

    Luncheon Meats 43.5% 2.2

    Vitamins 31.3% 2.2

    Fresh Bread & Rolls 45.1% 1.9

    Food & Trash Bags 21.3% 1.7

    Laundry Detergent 44.3% 1.6

    Pizza – Frozen 54.9% 1.5

    Ice Cream/Sherbet 26.8% 1.4

    Breakfast Meats 48.2% 1.2

    Juices/Drinks - Refrigerated 64.3% 1.2

    1. Top 25 largest edible and top 15 largest nonedible CPG categories. Price tier defined as avg price per volume vs. subcategory. Super Premium = >+50% above subcategory average, Premium = +25% to +50%, Mainstream = -25% to +25%, Value =

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9

    EVERYDAYPRICE

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    EDIBLE NONEDIBLE

    In the Current Pandemic Environment, Grocery Channel

    Shoppers Have Become Less Price Sensitive to Everyday Prices

    Impact of Everyday Price Change on Volume 2020 vs. 2019 – Grocery Channel

    16.6

    13.714.7

    9.6

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20 -1.9

    -4.2

    2019

    2020

    % change

    in volume

    from 10%

    decrease

    in price

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. 26 weeks ending 10/6/19 compared to 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    • Edible products are more price sensitive than nonedible products.

    • There has been a decrease in price sensitivity in 2020.

    • There is a greater decline in price sensitivity with nonedible products.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11

    GROCERY E-COMMERCE

    In Edibles, E-Commerce Price Sensitivity

    Is Now Below Grocery Channel Levels

    Impact of Everyday Price Change on Volume 2020 vs. 2019Grocery Channel vs. E-Commerce, Edible Categories

    16.618.1

    14.7

    13.0

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20 -1.9-5.1

    % change in volume from 10% decrease in price

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. E-Commerce based on pure-play ecom retailer. 26 weeks ending 10/6/19 vs 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary models.

    2019

    2020

    Significant

    increase in

    demand for

    food-at-home is

    driving bigger

    declines in price

    sensitivity in

    e-commerce.

    E-commerce is

    driving lower

    price sensitivity

    in this channel.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12

    EDIBLE

    NONEDIBLE

    Shoppers in Other Channels (Excluding Grocery)

    Exhibit More Everyday Price Sensitivity

    Impact of Everyday Price Change on Volume 2020 vs. 2019% Change in PPG Volume from 10% Decrease in Price

    16.612.4 13.6

    16.514.7 13.2 12.616.6

    10

    -1.9 +0.8-1.0

    +0.2

    13.7 12.3 11.88.69.6

    14.711.3 9.6

    Grocery Drug

    10

    -4.2+2.4

    -0.5 +1.0

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. 26 weeks ending 10/6/19 vs 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    2019

    2020

    The mass

    channel is

    exhibiting higher

    price sensitivity

    in 2020,

    consistent with

    skew to lower

    income shopper.

    Shoppers are

    willing to pay

    more for

    nonedibles

    while shopping

    in the grocery

    channel.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13

    21.1 16.9 -4.2

    15.5 11.5 -4.0

    14.3 11.0 -3.3

    15.3 12.6 -2.7

    17.0 14.3 -2.7

    16.1 14.0 -2.1

    14.6 12.5 -2.1

    19.6 18.6 -1.0

    16.3 15.3 -1.0

    10.5 10.4 -0.1

    11.3 11.3 0.0

    Price Sensitivity Declines Are Greatest in High Demand Categories…

    Edible Categories Change in Everyday Price Sensitivity% Change in PPG Volume from 10% Decrease in Price, Grocery Channel

    CategoryCategory Growth

    2020 vs. YA

    Everyday Price Sensitivity% change in volume from 10% decrease in price

    2019 2020 Δ 2020 - 2019

    Coffee 12%

    Refrigerated Meat 27%

    Ice Cream / Sherbet 20%

    Frozen / Refrigerated Poultry 26%

    Frozen Pizza 25%

    Salty Snacks 15%

    Frozen Dinners / Entrées 13%

    Carbonated Beverages 16%

    Cold Cereal 9%

    Fresh Bread & Rolls 13%

    Tea – Bags / Loose 22%

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    Insensitive

    Sensitive

    Price Sensitivity

    Less Sensitive

    More Sensitive

    Sensitivity Δ

    Little change in price sensitivity in

    staple categories

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14

    …with Similar Trends in E-Commerce

    Edible Categories Change in Pricing Sensitivity / Grocery Channel vs. E-Commerce% Change in PPG Volume from 10% Decrease in Price

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. E-Commerce based on pure-play ecom retailer. Pre COVID is 26 weeks ending 10/6/19. Post COVID is 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary models.

    Category

    Category

    Growth

    2020 vs.

    YA

    Grocery E-Commerce

    Everyday Price Sensitivity% chg. in volume from 10% decrease in price

    Everyday Price Sensitivity% chg. in volume from 10% decrease in price

    2019 2020Δ 2020 -

    20192019 2020

    Δ 2020 -

    2019

    Coffee 14% 21.1 16.9 -4.2 23.1 15 -8.1

    Refrigerated Meat 35% 15.5 11.5 -4.0 16.9 10.3 -6.6

    Ice Cream / Sherbet 21% 14.3 11.0 -3.3 15.1 9.7 -5.4

    Frozen/Refrigerated Poultry 27% 15.3 12.6 -2.7 16.6 11.2 -5.4

    Frozen Pizza 25% 17.0 14.3 -2.7 17.3 12 -5.4

    Salty Snacks 18% 16.1 14.0 -2.1 16.2 11.7 -4.5

    Frozen Dinners/Entrées 16% 14.6 12.5 -2.1 - - -

    Carbonated Beverages 19% 19.6 18.6 -1.0 - - -

    Cold Cereal 10% 16.3 15.3 -1.0 15.8 12.6 -3.2

    Fresh Bread & Rolls 15% 10.5 10.4 -0.1 9.2 8.5 -0.8

    Tea – Bags / Loose 24% 11.3 11.3 0.0 23.9 12.8 -11.2

    Insensitive

    Sensitive

    Price Sensitivity

    Less Sensitive

    More Sensitive

    Sensitivity Δ

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15

    High Demand, Supply-Constrained Categories in

    Nonedible Had Significant Drop in Price Sensitivity

    Nonedible Categories Change in Pricing Sensitivity / Grocery Channel% Change in PPG Volume from 10% Decrease in Price

    CategoryCategory

    Growth

    2020 vs. YA

    Category In

    Stock %

    2020

    Everyday Price Sensitivity

    2019 2020Δ 2020 -

    2019

    Bleach 38% 63% 16.9 7.7 -9.2

    Toilet Tissue 12% 71% 17.1 9.2 -7.9

    Paper Towels 21% 71% 15.5 8.5 -7.0

    Air Fresheners 18% 82% 14.9 10.7 -4.2

    Soap 52% 80% 13.2 9.6 -3.6

    Cups & Plates 12% 85% 14.4 11.0 -3.4

    Food & Trash Bags 12% 82% 13.7 11.1 -2.6

    Household Cleaner 37% 76% 11.8 9.6 -2.2

    Foils & Wraps 24% 90% 10.5 9.6 -0.9

    Eye/Contact Lens Care Product -9% 92% 7.3 6.4 -0.9

    Cosmetics - Facial -26% 95% 4.9 4.2 -0.7

    Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets -11% 76% 9.7 9.1 -0.6

    Shampoo 0% 91% 10.0 10.1 0.1

    32% 63% 16.9 7.7 -9.2

    17% 71% 17.1 9.2 -7.9

    28% 71% 15.5 8.5 -7.0

    13% 82% 14.9 10.7 -4.2

    79% 80% 13.2 9.6 -3.6

    18% 85% 14.4 11.0 -3.4

    15% 82% 13.7 11.1 -2.6

    44% 76% 11.8 9.6 -2.2

    29% 90% 10.5 9.6 -0.9

    -1% 92% 7.3 6.4 -0.9

    -23% 95% 4.9 4.2 -0.7

    -8% 76% 9.7 9.1 -0.6

    3% 91% 10.0 10.1 0.1

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    Insensitive

    Sensitive

    Price Sensitivity

    Less Sensitive

    More Sensitive

    Sensitivity Δ

    Significantly less price sensitivity in

    high demand, low in-stock

    categories and little promotion after

    pandemic outbreak.

    Little change in price sensitivity in

    low demand categories.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16

    PRIVATE LABEL VALUE MAINSTREAM PREMIUM

    Mainstream and Value-Priced Brands Have Higher Price

    Sensitivity and a Bigger Decline in Sensitivity During COVID-19

    Elasticity by Price Tiers / Grocery Channel

    13.4

    16.417.6

    14.6

    11.3

    14.0

    15.6

    13.0

    10

    -2.1

    -2.3-2.0

    -1.6

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. 26 weeks ending 10/6/19 vs. 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    2019

    2020

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17

    PROMOTIONALPRICES

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    Snacks, Beverage, Beverage Alcohol, Mouth Care, Laundry Aisles Are Back

    to Typical Promotion Levels, While Meals, Frozen, Paper Products Are Low

    Promotion Index Select Periods / Grocery Channel

    EDIBLE

    AislePre COVID-19

    % on Merch

    Promotion Index vs. YA

    4 WE 4/19/20 4 WE 7/12/20 4 WE 10/4/20

    Cookies & Crackers 51% 58 68 99

    Coffee & Tea 41% 66 80 98

    Carbonated Soft Drinks 61% 67 78 98

    Candy 40% 67 58 97

    Snacks 49% 59 66 97

    Liquor 36% 70 72 97

    Water 46% 45 70 97

    Breakfast 39% 68 80 93

    Juices 33% 56 73 90

    Frozen Desserts 35% 70 75 90

    Dairy 31% 61 88 89

    Bakery 39% 55 59 89

    Refrigerated Beverages 35% 67 77 89

    Ethnic 38% 41 42 86

    Frozen Meat/Poultry/Seafood 43% 54 61 85

    Sports/Energy Drinks 38% 71 84 83

    Refrigerated Meats 41% 68 60 83

    Frozen Meals 40% 61 67 82

    Frozen Fruits & Vegetables 32% 54 49 80

    Meals 35% 52 47 79

    NONEDIBLE

    AislePre COVID-19

    % on Merch

    Promotion Index vs. YA

    4 WE 4/19/20 4 WE 7/12/20 4 WE 10/4/20

    Mouth Care 28.9% 63 68 95

    Laundry 36.2% 51 81 93

    Feminine Products 27.4% 59 72 92

    Nutrition/Weight Loss 37.8% 65 76 91

    Skin Care 24.8% 49 55 87

    Personal Cleansing 30.3% 42 51 86

    Health Remedies 25.3% 49 61 85

    Household Plastics/Storage 30.1% 74 69 84

    Hair Care 27.8% 64 72 78

    Foils, Wraps & Bags 23.3% 74 63 69

    Disposable Tableware 27.9% 51 54 57

    Baby Care 27.6% 46 66 57

    Household Cleaning 25.3% 44 34 52

    Paper Products 40.4% 26 21 40

    Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20.

    Greater vs. YA

    Lower vs. YA

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19

    EDIBLE NONEDIBLE

    Grocery Shoppers Become Less

    Price Sensitive to Promotional Prices

    CPG Average PPG Price Elasticity 2020 vs. 2019 / Grocery Channel

    19.0

    14.0

    16.3

    8.5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    10

    -2.7

    -5.5

    2019

    2020

    % change in

    volume from

    10% decrease

    in price

    Note: Average PPG price elasticity measured across PPGs (top 80% by volume) in 30 representative categories. E-Commerce based on pure-play ecom retailer. 26 weeks ending 10/6/19 vs 26 weeks ending 10/4/20. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary models.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20

    However, Promotional Efficiency Has Begun to Improve In Recent

    Weeks, Suggesting That Promotional Prices Are Driving Incremental Sales

    2020 CPG Promotional Efficiency Index / Grocery

    Promotional Efficiency index defined as incremental promotional sales dollars per dollar invested in promotional price buy-down, indexed to YA value. Source: IRI POS data ending 10/4/20.

    8 WE

    2/23/20

    4 WE

    3/22/20

    4 WE

    4/19/20

    4 WE

    5/17/20

    4 WE

    6/14/20

    4 WE

    7/12/20

    4 WE

    8/9/20

    4 WE

    9/6/20

    4 WE

    10/4/20

    EDIBLE

    NONEDIBLE

    97.4

    132.6

    98.086.5

    74.6 75.386.8 89.3 91.8

    100.5

    134.7

    94.782.1 78.2 82.5

    98.8 99.9 93.0

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21

    CategoryCategory

    Growth

    2020 vs. YA

    Category In

    Stock % 2020

    Promotional

    Index vs YA

    Promoted Price Sensitivity

    2019 2020 Δ 2020 - 2019

    Toilet Tissue 12% 71% 35 23 6.3 -16.7

    Paper Towels 21% 71% 31 15.8 4.2 -11.6

    Bleach 38% 63% 40 16.7 5.7 -11.1

    Household Cleaner 37% 76% 45 13.1 7.7 -5.4

    Ice Cream / Sherbet 20% 84% 85 14.5 11 -3.4

    Meat - Refrigerated 27% 84% 90 15.8 13.4 -2.4

    Carbonated Beverages 16% 83% 85 21.8 19.5 -2.2

    Snack Bars/Granola Bars -11% 89% 84 17.7 15.7 -2

    Cold Cereal 9% 88% 86 18.1 16.8 -1.3

    Fresh Bread & Rolls 13% 88% 76 11.6 10.3 -1.2

    Tea – Bags / Loose 22% 85% 81 13 12.1 -0.9

    Foils & Wraps 24% 90% 67 6.5 6.2 -0.3

    Cosmetics - Facial -26% 95% 50 4.7 4.5 -0.2

    Promotions Declined in high demand Supply-Constrained Categories;

    Other Categories Remained Sensitive to Promotional Prices

    Categories Change in Promoted Price Sensitivity / Grocery Channel% Change in PPG Volume from 10% Decrease in Price

    Note:. Promotional index defined as % of dollar sales sold with any merchandising condition 32 weeks ending 10/4/2020, indexed to YA value. Source: IRI Revenue Growth Management proprietary store-level models.

    Insensitive

    Sensitive

    Price Sensitivity

    Less Sensitive

    More Sensitive

    Sensitivity Δ

    Categories with low supply and

    high demand were promoted less

    and saw promoted price sensitivity

    drop significantly.

    Less promoted price sensitive

    categories that remained in stock

    were promoted less and did not see

    decline in price sensitivity.

    Promoted price sensitive categories

    that had less supply issues

    remained price sensitive and saw

    less drop in promotional levels.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22

    • Monitor price elasticity at a granular level with high frequency to capitalize on pricing opportunities in the supply-constrained environment.

    • Understand price-pack opportunities across channels and assess potential evolution since onset of COVID-19, especially with e-commerce vs. store.

    • Ensure adequate opening price points and value products, while driving sales of premium and super premium products.

    • High demand categories have significant declines in elasticities, even going from being elastic to inelastic.− CPG manufacturers may have an opportunity to increase

    prices to cover increased costs in high demand categories.• Manage trade-in gap between value and mainstream and

    between mainstream and premium brands.• Continuously track promotional effectiveness and direct

    investments to efforts that deliver the highest returns.

    • Attract and retain e-commerce shoppers who are less price sensitive and more loyal with right targeting, messaging and assortment.

    • Fine tune assortment; build both value and premium offerings and manage trade-in gap between value and mainstream and between mainstream and premium brands.

    • Understand the effect of your pricing and promotion on specific shopper segments in order to drive penetration and incremental revenue.

    • Use promotions strategically to drive growth where there is greater price reaction and return on investment. − Consider empathetic promotional strategies for categories of

    growing need (e.g., meals, frozen vegetables, fruits) as fatigued home cooks look for more meal inspiration.

    • Continuously monitor price and promotional elasticity at granular levels and adapt revenue growth management practices.

    Manufacturers Retailers

    Tailor Revenue Management Strategies for Success in a PandemicIt is critical to understand shifting price and promotion elasticities across channels and tailor revenue management strategies and tactics accordingly to maximize sales and margin. COVID-19 cases are surging, and a new wave of pantry stocking is expected. This is likely to reaccelerate price / mix growth, with increased demand driving everyday prices up and promotional activity down. Further, with cold weather and COVID-19 restrictions driving consumers back into their homes, the shift to premium and super-premium products is likely to accelerate, a win for both brands and retailers prepared for these shifts.

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23

    Vivek Sankaran

    President & CEO, Albertsons Companies

    August 25, 2020

    Ram Krishnan

    Global Chief Commercial Officer, PepsiCo

    August 17, 2020

    Brian Cornell

    CEO of Target

    July 16, 2020

    https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-us/csuite2https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-us/csuite1https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-us/csuite3

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24

    Insights and Strategic

    Guidance for Better Decisions

    IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time

    Updates and Weekly Reports That Track

    the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail

    The IRI COVID-19 lmpact

    Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards

    and the latest thought leadership on supply chain,

    consumer behavior and channel shifts for the U.S.

    AND international markets.

    IRI CPG Economic Indicators, Including

    the IRI CPG Demand Index™, IRI CPG

    Supply Index™ and IRI CPG Inflation

    Tracker™

    Accessible through the insights portal

    to track the daily impact of COVID-19.

    This includes top-selling and out-of-stock

    categories across the country and

    consumer sentiment on social media.

    https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Publications/coronavirus-impact-to-CPG-and-retailhttps://bit.ly/IRI-COVID-19-Reportshttps://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/index.html

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    (click to see full report)IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS

    COVID-19: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE

    SPECIAL COVID-19 SERIES: RECESSION PROOF YOUR BUSINESS

    COVID-19 EMERGING POINT OF VIEW

    https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-3-25-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-4-3-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-4-9-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Thought-Leadership-4-17-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-Millennials-Meat-5-15-20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-COVID-19-Impact-Assessment-4-24-2020.pdf/https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-3-6-18-20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-4-6-30-20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-5-7-24-20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-6-7-29-20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/U-S-CPG-Growth-Leaders-TL_aug20.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-8-8-28-2020.pdfhttps:/www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Changing-Shape-of-the-Demand-Curve-Part-8-8-28-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-3-Brand-Performance-5-21-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-2-Maintaining-Pricing-Discipline-5-7-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-I-4-29-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-4-Private-Label-5-28-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-5-Building-Brands-6-3-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-6-Innovation-Lessons-6-12-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/IRI-TL-Recession-Series-Part-7-Defending-and-Recapturing-the-Shelf-7-6-2020-vF.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-9-Total-Store-Display-9-28-2020-vF.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-10-Convenience-Rebound-10-20-2020-vF.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Emerging-Point-of-View-7-30-2020.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Emerging-Point-of-View-8-11-2020-vF.pdf/https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Emerging-Point-of-View-8-14-2020-vF.pdfhttps://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/COVID-19-Demand-Curve-Part-11-Holidays-10-30-2020-vF.pdf

  • © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26

    The IRI CPG Demand Index™ provides a

    standard metric for tracking changes in spending

    on consumer packaged goods. It measures

    weekly changes in consumer purchases, by

    dollar sales, against the year-ago period across

    departments, including fixed and random weight

    products, grocery aisles and retail formats. The

    IRI CPG Demand Index™ is available for eight

    U.S. regions, all U.S. states, UK, France, Italy,

    Germany and the Netherlands.

    CLICK HERE FOR MORE!

    IRI CPG Demand Index™NOW INCLUDES

    U.S., UK, FRANCE, ITALY, GERMANY & NETHERLANDS

    https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/?i=0

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    The IRI CPG Channel Shift Index provides a

    standard metric for tracking changes (migration)

    in spending on consumer packaged goods across

    select channels. The index measures weekly

    changes in consumer purchases by dollar sales

    and product trips against the year-ago period for

    edible and nonedible products. The index is

    available for seven geographies – All Outlets,

    Grocery, Club, Dollar, Drug, Mass and Total E-

    Commerce.

    CLICK HERE FOR MORE!

    IRI CPG Channel Shift Index™

    https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/?i=2

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    The IRI CPG E-Commerce Demand Index provides a standard metric for tracking changes in spending on consumer packaged goods purchased online. The index measures rolling quad-weekly changes in consumer purchases by dollar sales against the year-ago period across releasable edible and nonedible departments. The index is available for three channels – Total E-Commerce, Brick & Mortar E-Commerce and Online E-Commerce, and two fulfillment types –Click & Collect and Delivery / Shipment.

    CLICK HERE FOR MORE!

    IRI CPG E-Commerce

    Demand Index™

    https://advantage.iriworldwide.com/Engineering/covid19/?i=3

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