Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus

Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus

Positioning Your Neighborhood for Economic DevelopmentChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

March 17, 2016

Roberta GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd

© RW Ventures, LLC 2016© RW Ventures, LLC 2016

It’s Not Our Parents’ Economy: Neighborhood and Regional

Development in the 21st CenturyChoice Neighborhoods Grantee Conference

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Robert WeissbourdMarch 17, 2016

THE FOLLOWING PRESENTATION HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR

MATURE AUDIENCES

RP THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN RATED RP FOR CONTENT. AUDIENCE DISCRETION ADVISED.

RADICAL + PRESUMPTUOUS

CONTENT MAY BE UNCONVENTIONAL,EXPLORATORY, ILLUSTRATIVE AND PROVOCATIVE

© RW Ventures, LLC 2016

Poverty and Economic Growth“… poverty has no causes. Only prosperity has causes. Analogically, heat is a result of active processes; it has causes. But cold is not the result of any processes; it is only the absence of heat. Just so, the great cold of poverty and economic stagnation is merely the absence of economic development. It can be overcome only if the relevant economic processes are in motion.”

-- Jane Jacobs

Photo from Shelf-Basin Interactions

4


Therefore, to increase wealth in poor communities, expand market activity to the assets of those communities

Market-Based Development

The economic mechanism for investing in assets is the market

Wealth is created by investing in assets

To address poverty, create wealth

5


Agenda

Changing Dynamics of Cities

Changing Dynamics of Neighborhoods

Neighborhood Business Planning


0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

$s lbs

% C

hang

e

GDP Growth, 1950-2000 Human Capital Information technologiesProduct innovation; flexible

customization Firm, consumer and knowledge

networks Increasing returns; divergence

The Global Economy is Undergoing a Fundamental Transformation, Driven by Knowledge Assets

7Source: “Greenspan Weighs Evidence and Finds a Lighter Economy,” Wall Street Journal


1920s 1990s0

20406080

Years Spent on the S&P Index

As a Result, the Economy is More Dynamic

8Sources: Newsweek, Manyika, Lund and Auguste, “From the Ashes,” 8.16.2010; Brookings Institution

15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33%0%

20%40%60%80%

100%

Churn and GRP Growth by MSA

Firm Starts and Closures (Churn) as % of All Firms

GRP

Gro

wth


…and Centered in Metropolitan Areas

9


…and Centered in Metropolitan Areas

Population

83.7%

Employm

ent

89.8%

Personal Income

96.3%Knowledge Industries (G

DP)

87%

Metros Share of U.S. Total

Source: Brookings Institution; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

Gross Product

90%

Patents

95.5%

9


What Makes Metropolitan Regions more Productive in the Next Economy?

Economic Geograph

y Institutional

Economics

New Growth Theory

10


Metros Concentrate People and Firms to Achieve Efficiencies

Economic Geograph

y

Institutional EconomicsNew

Growth Theory

Act Comprehensively – The Whole is Greater than the Sum of the Parts.

Develop Institutional Capacity and Intentionality.

Customize and Build on Distinctive Assets.

10


Leverage Points

for Sustainable and Inclusive

Prosperity

Five Market Levers Drive RegionalEconomic Performance

11


Leverage Points


Prosperity

EnhanceRegional

Concentrations/Clusters


11

Current Concentrations: Assets, Legacies and Bets

Cluster Dynamics and Drivers


Leverage Points


Prosperity

DeployHuman CapitalAligned with

Job Pools

EnhanceRegional



11

High levels of human capital and rich job pools

Job matching and worker mobility

Inclusiveness and opportunity


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-

EnablingInfrastructure


11

Commercialization of R&D

Cluster- and firm-based innovation

Entrepreneurship


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

Create EffectivePublic & Civic

Culture & Institutions

EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



11

Government fragmentation

Tax-value proposition

Cross-sector governance


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

Increase Spatial

Efficiency



EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



11

Compact, well-connected urban form

Segregation and isolation

Jobs-housing mismatch

Next generation infrastructure


Implications for Urban Economic Development

12

Success = Dynamic Economic Growth

Success = Short Term

Jobs

Subsidize companies

Reduce taxes

Train the unemployed

Municipal competition

Government-led

Traditional economic development

New economic growth planning

Leverage regional strengths

Add value

Connect training to jobs

Regional collaboration

Public-private partnerships


The Inclusive Growth Paradox

13

Drivers of growth exacerbate inequity

0.020.040.0

Changes in Share of Total Household Income, 1979 - 2007

19792007

Shar

e of

Tot

al

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e



13

-.20

.2.4

.6W

age

Gro

wth

(199

0-20

00)

0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)

Inequity is bad for growth


0.020.040.0


19792007

Shar

e of

Tot

al

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Congressional Budget Office; RW Ventures Analysis



13

-.20

.2.4

.6W

age

Gro

wth

(199

0-20

00)

0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)

Inequity is bad for growth


0.020.040.0


19792007

Shar

e of

Tot

al

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Congressional Budget Office; RW Ventures Analysis

INCLUSION is a

BUSINESS IMPERATIVE


Principles for Practicing Inclusive Growth

14

“It’s the Economy” Focus on opportunities (specific assets, markets and

growth drivers) to leverage (not supplant) markets to create value.



14



“Skate to Where the Puck Is Going to Be” It’s the next economy. Stop programming that moves the

disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!



14




disadvantaged into old economy jobs and businesses!New Civics Embrace new cross-sector partnerships, networks and

institutions to inform and implement work.



14





institutions to inform and implement work.Act in Context Activities and geographies succeed or fail in context of

each other and their interactions in place. Strategies and initiatives need to be aligned, integrated and mutually reinforcing.



14





institutions to inform and implement work.Act in Context Activities and geographies succeed or fail in context of

each other and their interactions in place. Strategies and initiatives need to be aligned, integrated and mutually reinforcing.

Inclusion is Not a Separate Economic Practice It’s an intentional, integral design principle for every

growth activity.


Leverage Points


Prosperity

Examples: Inclusive Regional Economic Growth Practice

15


Leverage Points


Prosperity

EnhanceRegional



15

Inclusive Clusters: Chicago FOOD


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

EnhanceRegional



15


Targeted inclusive training for emerging industries: YearUp


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



15


Doer-Maker Space: Blue1647



Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools



EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



15



Neighborhood/Sub-Regional Business Planning: Greater Chatham Initiative



Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

Increase Spatial

Efficiency



EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



15



Neighborhood/Sub-Regional Business Planning: Greater Chatham Initiative

Industrial land reuse:Casey-Atlanta



Agenda





Inclusive Regional Growth

Comprehensive Neighborhood Planning

ECONOMICGROWTH

Productivity,Outputs

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENTHealthyCommunities

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

WealthCreation

Wealth creation for residents

Neighborhoods as healthy, vital places to live

17


Two Frames

Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice

Neighborhoods as collection of amenities – housing, retail, public goods, etc. – interacting in place

Function = attract and retain particular segments of residents

Emphasis on quality of life

18


Two Frames

Frame 2: Neighborhoods of Choice Frame 1: Neighborhoods of Opportunity

Neighborhoods as collection of amenities – housing, retail, public goods, etc. – interacting in place

Function = attract and retain particular segments of residents

Emphasis on quality of life

Neighborhoods as collection of assets – labor, land, businesses, etc. - nested in larger markets

Function = develop and deploy assets into larger systems

Emphasis on economics

18



ECONOMICGROWTH

COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

19



MARKETS

AMENITIES ASSETS

20


Neighborhoods are Complex

21


Neighborhoods are Complex

AMENITIESPhysical environment, Entertainment venues,

Public transit

PEOPLEEthnicity, Age, Family Structure

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

Civic engagement, Social networks, Community

organizations

GOVERNANCEInfrastructure, Policing,

Social Services

REAL ESTATECommercial and

Residential, Type and Quality of Housing

BUSINESSNumber, size and type

of businesses

22


Neighborhoods are Dynamic

AMENITIESEnvironmental

deterioration; development of parks, institutional

anchors

PEOPLEChange or lose jobs;

have kids; move

SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTChange in crime,

participation,social behaviors

GOVERNANCEChanging infrastructure, services, enforcement

demands

REAL ESTATEDeterioration and renewal

BUSINESSEntry, Investment, Failure

A Web of Interdependent Activities: “Organized Complexity” (Jacobs)

23


Neighborhoods are Dynamic

24


Frame 1: Neighborhoods of Opportunity

MARKETS

AMENITIES ASSETS

25


ECONOMICSYSTEMS

POLITICALSYSTEMSSOCIAL

SYSTEMS

Labor Markets

Business Markets

Housing Markets

Capital Markets

Consumer Markets

GovernmentServicesInfrastructure

Neighborhoods arise from the interaction of regional economic,social and political systems with physical place.

PublicGoodsGovernance

Social CapitalCivic Networks

Neighborhoods are Nested in Larger Systems Which Drive the Flows of People and Capital

26


Neighborhoods Need Regions

Poverty Productivity

Connectedness

Isolation

27


Neighborhoods Need RegionsEmployment networksEntrepreneurial opportunitiesBusiness, real estate investment

Expanded products and services

Productive, healthycommunities

Undervalued, underutilized assets

Poverty Productivity

Connectedness

Isolation

27

Goal: Neighborhoods that Build Capacity and Opportunity (Amartya Sen)


Regions Need Neighborhoods

-.20

.2.4

.6W

age

Gro

wth

(199

0-20

00)

0 .1 .2 .3 .4Poverty Rate (1990)

225%200%175%150%125%100%75%50%25%0%

1990 1995 2000 2004

Repe

at S

ales

Inde

x

Year

Variation of appreciation across NeighborhoodsKing County 1990-2004

28


Connecting the “Frames”

Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply

Mobility –who moves in/out

29



Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply

Wealth and Connectedness of Residents

Wealth and Connectedness of Businesses


29



Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply


Human Capital Stock and Deployment

Urban Growth Form

Clusters


Innovation and Entrepreneurshi

p

Inst

itutio

nal E

nviro

nmen

t (Go

vern

ance

)


29


Unified Theory of Change –Frame 1: Choice Frame 2:Opportunity Neighborhoods do not have

economies: they have assets Frames are closely interrelated

– Success in frame 1 affects frame 2 –attractiveness and types of changes

– Frame 2 iterates with and supports success in frame 1

Neighborhoods are whole greater than sum of parts:– Differentiated amenities to serve/house

varied residents/assets – range of neighborhood types and trajectories

– Where economic and non-economicfactors most iterate

– Ultimately, we care about morethan economics

30


Next-Economy Dynamics Create New Urban Development OpportunitiesIndustrial Economy

Knowledge Economy

Large factoriesSmaller space, less physical capital

Sectoral specializations

Functional specializations

Sprawl Densification

Continuous rise in VMT

Decrease and stabilization of VMT

Highest property values = single family houses

Highest property values = condos, apartments

Majority of households married with children

Majority of households single, no children

0.0%4.0%8.0%

12.0%16.0%

Population Growth in Large Metros, 2000-

2010 Downtown PopulationMetro Population

31


Leverage Points


Prosperity

Regional Market Levers Create Opportunities for Neighborhoods in the Next Economy

32


Leverage Points


Prosperity

EnhanceRegional



Employment and entrepreneurship opportunities

Commercial and industrial development

32


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

EnhanceRegional



Targeted training

Access/ mobility/ networks

32


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



Targeted entrepreneurship

Connecting to ecosystem

32


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools



EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



Efficiency Engagemen

t Networks

32


Leverage Points


Prosperity


Job Pools

Increase Spatial

Efficiency



EnhanceRegional


DevelopInnovation-



New, mixed uses Development

opportunities Bring jobs back Next- generation

infrastructure

32


Agenda





Identify neighborhood assets/opportunities

Develop customized strategies

Turn strategies into concrete actions

Build institutional capacity

Execute

Business Planning: A Proven Discipline for Comprehensive, Effective Action

34


Identify neighborhood assets/opportunities

Develop customized strategies

Turn strategies into concrete actions

Build institutional capacity

Execute

NEIGHBORHOOD BUSINESS PLANNING

Mission and Vision

Market Analysis

Strategies

Products and Services

Operational Planning

Financial Planning

Performance Monitoring

Business Planning: A Proven Discipline for Comprehensive, Effective Action

34


Elements of a Business PlanMISSION/VISION

• Tailored to specific assets, opportunities, type

• What kind of neighborhood do you aspire to be?

• What residents, businesses, outcomes?

35






MARKET ANALYSIS• Rigorous, fact-based • Comprehensive assessment of

assets, market barriers, opportunities, existing initiatives

• Status, Dynamics

35









STRATEGIES• Tailored to assets, opportunities,

targeted trajectories identified in market analysis

• Mutually reinforcing

35






INITIATIVES, PRODUCTS• Specific activities to implement

strategies• Adapt best practices• Design, engage stakeholders, market

test• Evaluate feasibility, effectiveness







35









OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Staffing, facilities, necessary to

deliver products• Operational and organizational

implications• Financial requirements, sources,

pro formas







35


Elements of a Business Plan

PERFORMANCE MONITORING

• Measurable goals, metrics• Continually track progress• Update market analysis• Adjust strategies and initiatives

based on results

MISSION/VISION• Tailored to specific assets,

opportunities, type• What kind of neighborhood do

you aspire to be?• What residents, businesses,

outcomes?




OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS• Staffing, facilities, necessary to

deliver products• Operational and organizational

implications• Financial requirements, sources,

pro formas







35


Why Neighborhood Business Planning?

36


Why Neighborhood Business Planning? Neighborhoods and regions succeed or fail

together Regions need neighborhood assets to sustainably grow Neighborhoods don’t have economies – they have

assets, and prosper when they contribute to & benefit from regional growth

36


Why Neighborhood Business Planning? Neighborhoods and regions succeed or fail

together Regions need neighborhood assets to sustainably grow Neighborhoods don’t have economies – they have

assets, and prosper when they contribute to & benefit from regional growth

Integrated regional/sub-regional growth plans align the two Regional plans provide “North Star” – market context,

mutually reinforcing strategies Neighborhood plans bring regional priorities to ground,

tailored to the challenges and opportunities of specific places

36


Outcomes: Catalyzing Action

37



37

Detailed, objective market analysis, providing a shared, understanding of opportunities and foundation for collaboration

A strategic economic growth action agenda, providing unified goals, vision and strategies; detailed business plan for coordinating, organizing and aligning activities

The

Plan



37



Identification and design of implementation activities, the most important outcome of the planning process

The

Plan

Initi

ativ

es



37



Identification and design of implementation activities, the most important outcome of the planning process

Institutional infrastructure, providing platform for long-term cross-sector collaboration and invention

The

Plan

Initi

ativ

esC

ivic

s


The Civics of NBP

38

Next-economy plan requires next-economy governance

Next-economy imperatives include:– Regional connectivity– Flexibility/adaptability– Inclusion– Rich formal and informal networks

Key partners include:– Civic/non-profit – convene stakeholders, represent

community constituencies, deliver programs/services– Business – provide market perspective, drive economic

growth– Government – align resources/programming with

strategiesCivics and economics are iterative and mutually informing


FORTUNE100CLOSE, COOL,

COMMERCIALNO PLACELIKE HOME

THE TRULY DISADVANTAGED TRANSIENT

UNDER-DEVELOPED

lower income higher income

STABLE LOW INCOME PORT OF

ENTRYCOMING

ATTRACTIONSURBAN TAPESTRY

Taxonomy Structure: “Genus, Phylum, Species”

39


Applying the Taxonomy: Neighborhood Transition

2000

1990

Truly Disadvantaged

Trans. Under-

developed

Stable Low Income

Port of Entry

Urban Tapestry

Coming Attractions

No Place Like

HomeClose, Cool, Commercial

Fortune 500

Truly DisadvantagedTrans.

Underdeveloped

Stable Low Income

Port of Entry

Urban Tapestry

Coming Attractions

No Place Like

HomeClose, Cool,

CommercialFortune 500

Transition Matrix

40


Applying the Taxonomy: Neighborhood Transition

High Racial DiversityOlder, Single Family HomesAverage Incomes, Low UnemploymentLow Crime

Type 5: Urban Tapestry58.9%

Type 4: Port of Entry 21.1%

Type 8: Close, Cool, Commercial

7.8%

Type 3: Stable Low

Income7.2%

High Population Foreign BornFamilies, High Resident MobilityBelow-average IncomesUnemployment < 10%Low Crime

Young, Educated ProfessionalsRented ApartmentsMid-High IncomeMany Consumption AmenitiesHigh Residential Mobility

Primarily African AmericanSingle Family Homes,High Residential StabilityHigh CrimeHigh Unemployment

2000

1990

Truly Disadvantaged

Trans. Under-

developed

Stable Low Income

Port of Entry

Urban Tapestry

Coming Attractions

No Place Like

HomeClose, Cool, Commercial

Fortune 500

Truly DisadvantagedTrans.

Underdeveloped

Stable Low Income

Port of Entry

Urban Tapestry

Coming Attractions

No Place Like

HomeClose, Cool,

CommercialFortune 500

Transition Matrix

40




March 17, 2016

Roberta GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd

Background –Columbus TA Request

Focus on retail/commercial initiatives – Potential grocery store– Historic commercial/arts district– Proposed neighborhood gateway

Issues– Neighborhood in regional context– Aligning strategies– Looking forward: serving existing AND future residents– Staging

114221

2

Physical Context 43

3

Development Context: Challenges Vacant residential and commercial buildings Depopulation Only 3% of people who work in the neighborhood,

live in the neighborhood Poverty—large family public housing development Crime and safety issues Limited retail/commercial options Few large commercial sites that are ready to

develop

44

4

Development Context: Assets Adjacent to downtown, Columbus State, major

thoroughfares– New Long St. and Spring St. bridges and caps over I-71

Significant new development and revitalization in the west end of the neighborhood– King-Lincoln Historic Cultural District– NoBo homeownership development

Active residential market Ohio State investment in PACT, Taylor Ave. corridor

Poindexter Village demolished in 2013; rapid new housing development

45

5

Blueprint for Community Investment

46

6



Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply


47



Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply




47



Retail Demand

Retail Supply

Quality of Life

Housing Demand

Housing Supply


Human Capital Stock and Deployment

Urban Growth Form

Clusters


Innovation and Entrepreneurshi

p

Inst

itutio

nal E

nviro

nmen

t (Go

vern

ance

)


47

Neighborhood Retail Framework Retail tends to follow neighborhood

development– Leading edge retail possible,

but difficult

49

Strategic Retail Development:Retail development that capitalizes on neighborhood trends, aligned with the emerging market, to accelerate neighborhood transformation

Neighborhood /Trade Area

Trajectories

CurrentNeighborhood /

Trade AreaStatus

RetailMarket

Opportunities

8

Retail Guidance for Columbus Viability depends on mutually

reinforcing and aligned strategies– Define/brand the neighborhood– Adding households, income, daytime

population– Addressing safety and other concerns– Business retention

50

9

Retail Guidance for Columbus Viability depends on mutually

reinforcing and aligned strategies– Define/brand the neighborhood– Adding households, income, daytime

population– Addressing safety and other concerns– Business retention

Trajectory and Timing– Future focused– Role in regional economy– Targeting and staging – Specialty retail opportunities

50

9

Takeaways for Columbus Retail tends to follow neighborhood development

– Leading edge retail possible,but difficult

Need coordinated vision for where community is going, and staged activities to get there, to create and stage retail opportunity– SF rehab market– Anchors: co-investing, procurement, employee

homeownership– Strategic employer attraction add’l shoppers– Branding– Business friendly; Public safety (e.g., “safe zones”)

51

10

Takeaways FROM Columbus “helped us focus…appreciated the straightforward

feedback” “brought new people to the table” “better understanding of sequencing of

retail/commercial and housing development” “plan is more focused…targeted geographic

nodes and fewer individual projects…thinking about what kinds of businesses fit where and what their needs are”

“could have used more help to move it along”

52

11

After the TA: Back to Reality Neighborhood economic development strategy is

bigger than retail/commercial– Institutional organizations and buildings are the drivers

of investment

No one entity is in charge of implementing the overall economic development strategy– Many individual projects

The readiness issue– Need to strike while the iron is hot

Choice CCI parameters

53

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March 17, 2016

Bobbie GarberHannah JonesLyneir RichardsonRobert Weissbourd

Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Retail in Context: Observations from Columbus