Resurrecting Laplace's Demon: The Case for Deterministic Models · 2018-04-03 · Nevertheless,...
Transcript of Resurrecting Laplace's Demon: The Case for Deterministic Models · 2018-04-03 · Nevertheless,...
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Resurrecting Laplace's Demon: The Case for Deterministic Models
Edward A. Lee Robert S. Pepper Distinguished Professor UC Berkeley Keynote Talk: MODELS October 4, 2016 St. Malo, France
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MODELS2010Oslo,Norway
Keynotetalk:DisciplinedHeterogeneousModeling
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Notjustinforma.ontechnology:• Cyber+Physical• Computa@on+Dynamics• Security+SafetyProper.es:• Highlydynamic• Safetycri@cal• Uncertainenvironment• Physicallydistributed• Sporadicconnec@vity• Resourceconstrained
Doesitmakesensetotalkaboutdeterminis;cmodelsforsuchsystems?
Automotive
Context:Cyber-PhysicalSystemsApar@cularlychallengingcasefordeterminism
Biomedical
Military
Energy
Manufacturing
Avionics
Buildings
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Modelsvs.Reality
Inthisexample,themodelingframeworkiscalculusandNewton’slaws.Fidelityishowwellthemodelanditstargetmatch
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The model
The target (the thing being modeled).
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Solomon Wolf Golomb
You will never strike oil by drilling through the map!
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Engineers often confuse the model with its target
But this does not in any way diminish the value of a map!
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Determinacy
Someofthemostvaluablemodelsaredeterminis;c.
Amodelisdeterminis;cif,giventheini@alstateandtheinputs,themodeldefinesexactlyonebehavior.
Determinis@cmodelshaveprovenextremelyvaluableinthepast.
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Laplace’sDemon
“Wemayregardthepresentstateoftheuniverseastheeffectofitspastandthecauseofitsfuture.Anintellectwhichatacertainmomentwouldknowallforcesthatsetnatureinmo@on,andallposi@onsofallitemsofwhichnatureiscomposed,ifthisintellectwerealsovastenoughtosubmitthesedatatoanalysis,itwouldembraceinasingleformulathemovementsofthegreatestbodiesoftheuniverseandthoseofthe@niestatom;forsuchanintellectnothingwouldbeuncertainandthefuturejustlikethepastwouldbepresentbeforeitseyes.”— PierreSimonLaplace
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Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749–1827). Portrait by Joan-Baptiste Paulin Guérin, 1838
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Didquantummechanicsdashthishope?
“Atfirst,itseemedthatthesehopesforacompletedeterminismwouldbedashedbythediscoveryearlyinthe20thcenturythateventslikethedecayofradioac@veatomsseemedtotakeplaceatrandom.ItwasasifGodwasplayingdice,inEinstein’sphrase.Butsciencesnatchedvictoryfromthejawsofdefeatbymovingthegoalpostsandredefiningwhatismeantbyacompleteknowledgeoftheuniverse.”(StephenHawking,2002)
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Nevertheless,Laplace’sDemoncannotexist.
In2008,DavidWolpert,thenatNASA,nowattheSantaFeResearchIns@tute,usedCantor’sdiagonaliza@ontechniquetoprovethatLaplace’sdemoncannotexist.Hisproofreliesontheobserva@onthatsuchademon,wereittoexist,wouldhavetoexistintheveryphysicalworldthatitpredicts.
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David Wolpert
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The Koptez Principle
Many properties that we assert about systems (determinism, timeliness, reliability) are in fact not properties of the system, but rather properties of a model of the system. If we accept this, then it makes no sense to talk about whether the physical world is deterministic. It only makes sense to talk about whether models of the physical world are deterministic.
Hermann Kopetz Professor (Emeritus) TU Vienna
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Theques@onswitchesfromwhetheramodelisTruetowhetheritisUseful
“Essen@ally,allmodelsarewrong,butsomeareuseful.”
Box,G.E.P.andN.R.Draper,1987:EmpiricalModel-BuildingandResponseSurfaces.WileySeriesinProbabilityandSta@s@cs,Wiley.
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Physicistscon@nuetodebatewhethertheworldisdeterminis@c
Determinismisapropertyofmodels,notapropertyofthesystemstheymodel.
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Deterministic model
Deterministic system?
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Schema@cofasimpleCyber-PhysicalSystem
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What kinds of models should we use? Let’s look at the most successful kinds of models from the cyber and the physical worlds.
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SoewareisaModel
PhysicalSystem Model
Single-threadedimpera;veprogramsaredeterminis;cmodels
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Considersingle-threadedimpera@veprograms
Thetargetofthemodeliselectronssloshingaroundinsilicon.Ittakes@me,consumesenergy,andfailsifdroppedintheocean,noneofwhichareproper@esofthemodel.
This program defines exactly one behavior, given the input x. Note that the modeling framework (the C language, in this case) defines “behavior” and “input.”
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Soewarereliesonanotherdeterminis@cmodelthatabstractsthehardware
PhysicalSystem Model
Instruction Set Architectures (ISAs) are deterministic models
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Image: Wikimedia Commons Waterman, et al., The RISC-V Instruction Set Manual, UCB/EECS-2011-62, 2011
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…whichreliesonyetanotherdeterminis@cmodel
PhysicalSystem Model
Synchronousdigitallogicisadeterminis;cmodel
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Determinis@cModelsforthePhysicalSideofCPS
PhysicalSystem Model
Signal Signal
Differen;alEqua;onsaredeterminis;cmodels
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Image: Wikimedia Commons
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Signal Signal
19 Image: Wikimedia Commons Lee, Berkeley
AmajorproblemforCPS:combina@onsofdeterminis@cmodelsarenondeterminis@c
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Correct execution of a program in all widely used programming languages, and correct delivery of a network message in all general-purpose networks has nothing to do with how long it takes to do anything.
Programmers have to step outside the programming abstractions to specify timing behavior. CPS designers have no map!
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Timing is not part of software and network semantics
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AStory
In“flybywire”aircrae,computerscontroltheplane,media@ngpilotcommands.
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Abstrac@onLayersAllofwhicharemodelsexceptthebohom
Thepurposeofanabstrac@onistohidedetailsoftheimplementa@onbelowandprovideaplaiormfordesignfromabove.
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Abstrac@onLayersAllofwhicharemodelsexceptthebohom
Everyabstrac@onlayerhasfailedfortheaircraedesigner.Thedesignistheimplementa@on.
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Determinism?Really?
CPSapplica@onsoperateinanintrinsicallynondeterminis@cworld.Doesitreallymakesensetoinsistondeterminis;cmodels?
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• Inscience,thevalueofamodelliesinhowwellitsbehaviormatchesthatofthephysicalsystem.
• Inengineering,thevalueofthephysicalsystemliesinhowwellitsbehaviormatchesthatofthemodel.
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In engineering, model fidelity is a two-way street!
For a model to be useful, it is necessary (but not sufficient) to be able to be able to
construct a faithful physical realization.
TheValueofModels
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AModel
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APhysicalRealiza@on
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ModelFidelity
• Toascien;st,themodelisflawed.
• Toanengineer,therealiza@onisflawed.
I’manengineer…
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ForCPS,weneedtochangetheques@on
Theques@onisnotwhetherdeterminis@cmodelscandescribethebehaviorofcyber-physicalsystems(withhighfidelity).Theques@oniswhetherwecanbuildcyber-physicalsystemswhosebehaviormatchesthatofadeterminis@cmodel(withhighprobability).
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Determinism?Whataboutresilience?Adaptability?
Determinis@cmodelsdonoteliminatetheneedforrobust,fault-tolerantdesigns.
Infact,theyenablesuchdesigns,becausetheymakeitmuchclearerwhatitmeanstohaveafault!
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Existenceproofsthatusefuldeterminis@cmodelsforCPSexist
Determinis@cmodelsforCPSwithfaithfulimplementa@onsexist:
• PTIDES:distributedreal-@mesoeware– hhp://chess.eecs.berkeley.edu/p@des
• PRET:@me-determinis@carchitectures– hhp://chess.eecs.berkeley.edu/pret
Thesetwoprojectsendedin2015.
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Together,thesetechnologiesgiveaprogrammingmodelfordistributedandconcurrentreal-;mesystemsthatisdeterminis;cinthesenseofsingle-threadedimpera;veprograms,andalsodeterminis;cw.r.t.to;mingofexternalinterac;ons.
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But…
Determinismhasitslimits.
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• Complexity • Uncertainty • Chaos • Incompleteness
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Complexity
• Somesystemsaretoocomplexfordeterminis@cmodels.
• Nondeterminis@cabstrac@onsbecomeuseful.
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“Iron wing” model of an Airbus A350.
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Complexity
• Somesystemsaretoocomplexfordeterminis@cmodels.
• Nondeterminis@cabstrac@onsbecomeuseful.
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Deep Learning, draft book in preparation, by Yoshua Bengio, Ian Goodfellow, and Aaron Courville. http://www.deeplearningbook.org/
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But…
Determinismhasitslimits.
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• Complexity • Uncertainty • Chaos • Incompleteness
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Uncertainty
• Wecan’tconstructdeterminis@cmodelsofwhatwedon’tknow.
• Forthis,nondeterminismisuseful.
• Bayesianprobability(whichismostlyduetoLaplace)quan@fiesuncertainty.
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Portrait of Reverend Thomas Bayes (1701 - 1761) that is probably not actually him.
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But…
Determinismhasitslimits.
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• Complexity • Uncertainty • Chaos • Incompleteness
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Determinismdoesnotimplypredictability
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Edward Lorenz
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Determinismdoesnotimplypredictability
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Edward Lorenz
The position of a point is not meaningfully predictable even though the system is deterministic.
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Determinismdoesnotimplypredictability
[ThieleandKumar,EMSOFT2015]
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But…
Determinismhasitslimits.
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• Complexity • Uncertainty • Chaos • Incompleteness
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IncompletenessofDeterminism
Anysetofdeterminis@cmodelsrichenoughtoencompassNewton’slawsplusdiscretetransi@onsisincomplete.[Lee,FundamentalLimitsofCyber-PhysicalSystemsModeling,toappear,ACMTr.onCPS,2017]
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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Illustra@onoftheIncompletenessofDeterminism
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ArbitraryInterleavingYieldsNondeterminism
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RecalltheHeisenbergUncertaintyPrinciple
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IsDeterminismIncomplete?
• InLee(2017),IshowthatthissequenceofmodelsisCauchy,sothespaceofdeterminis@cmodelsisincomplete(itdoesnotcontainitsownlimitpoints).
• InLee(2014),Ishowthatadirectdescrip@onofthisscenarioresultsinanon-construc@vemodel.Thenondeterminismarisesinmakingthismodelconstruc@ve.
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Rejec@ngdiscretenessleadstodeterminis@cchaos
Acon@nuousdeterminis@cmodelthatmodelstheballsasspringsischao@c.
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Discretebehaviorscannotbeexcludedunlesswealsorejectcausality
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Example from Lee, “Constructive Models of Discrete and Continuous Physical Phenomena,” IEEE Access, 2014
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Summary
• Determinis@cmodelsareextremelyuseful.
• Combiningofourbestdeterminis@ccybermodelsandphysicalmodelstodayyieldsnondeterminis@cmodels.
• Butdeterminis@cmodelswithfaithfulimplementa@onsexist(inresearch)forcyber-physicalsystems.
• Determinis@cmodelsaren’talwayspossibleorprac@calduetocomplexity,unknowns,chaos,andincompleteness.
• Determinismisapowerfulmodelingtool.Useitifyoucan.Backoffonlywhenyoucan’t.
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Conclusion
Modelsplayacentralroleinreasoningaboutanddesigningengineeredsystems.Determinismisavaluableandsubtlepropertyofmodels.
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Plato and the Nerd On Technology and Creativity
Edward Ashford Lee
MIT Press, 2017
Forthcoming book My first for a general audience