Resurgent Cities? European Urban Trajectories 1960-2005
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Resurgent Cities?European Urban Trajectories 1960-2005
Vlad Mykhnenko & Ivan TurokCentre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR) & Department of Urban Studies, University of Glasgow
The RGS-IBG Annual International Conference, The Royal Geographical Society, Kensington Gore, London
30th August 2006
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Background
New conventional wisdom about the contribution of cities to national and regional growth– contain the key drivers of innovation, creativity and
productivity in advanced, knowledge-based economies – provide vital economic, social, educational and cultural
facilities to help attract and retain vital human capital and creative talent (‘buzz’)
– contain the assets and infrastructure to attract high order business and consumer services & tourism
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Illustration
“Cities and metropolitan areas are drivers of economic development … creating growth, innovation and employment … The European Union will be most successful in pursuing its growth and jobs agenda, if all regions – especially those with the greatest potential for higher productivity and employment – are able to play their part. Cities are essential in this effort. They are the home of most jobs, businesses, and higher education institutions and are key actors in achieving social cohesion. Cities are the centres of change, based on innovation, entrepreneurship and business growth” (European Commission, 2005)
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Research Questions
Are there any signs of an improvement (‘resurgence’) in the position of European cities – in historical terms & relative to their national contexts?
Any obvious attributes associated with stronger or weaker city growth?– size– regional location– national political-economy
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Population as an indicator of urban economic dynamism and growth
1. A consequence of wider conditions in different places – differential employment opportunities
2. A contributor to economic development – skilled labour, enterprise, demand for consumer & public services
Both facilitated by rising personal mobility, wider regional disparities, falling international barriers (hence easier ‘adjustment’) and increasing policy attention
Hence economic and demographic trends becoming more interdependent
“there can be no doubt that at all stages of urban growth and decline there is causal interaction between population and employment movement” (Cheshire and Hay, 1989)
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Link between population & employment trends
EU-25 NUTS-1 regions: changes in employment and populaiton between 1995 and 2003, %
R2 = 0.53
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50employment growth
popu
latio
n gr
owth
Eurostat Regio Database (2006).
EU-25: employment and population correlations in NUTS-1 regions, 1995-2003
UK's 37 NUTS-2 regions: changes in employment and population, 1985-1995, %
R2 = 0.66
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
employment growth
popu
latio
n gr
owth
UK: employment and population correlation in NUTS-2 regions, 1985-1995
Eurostat Regio Database (2006) and NOMIS (2006).
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Five propositions
1. The rate of population growth in cities has increased in recent years and in relation to their national averages
2. Big cities have performed better than smaller cities ‘cos of the larger scale of opportunities, assets & amenities
3. Cities in the economic and political core of Europe (where proximity to wealth and power is high) are growing more strongly than those in the periphery
4. Cities located in regions with a higher quality of life (e.g sunnier climate) have out-performed cities elsewhere
5. Western European cities are growing more strongly than those in the East
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Methods and data sources
City as a continuous built-up area with over 200,000 population in 2000
Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals Created by amalgamating constituent local authorities
or using nationally defined urban agglomerations Yields 310 cities in 36 countries of Western and
Eastern Europe They account for 37% of total population (42% in
Western Europe; 30% in Eastern) Data traced back to 1960 at 5-year intervals
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Examples of British and Irish cities
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Key findings
Europe overall
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Far fewer growing cities than before, more declining cities
Europe: number of cities by absolute and relative population change direction
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Growing StableDeclining Relatively growingRelatively declining
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Relative improvement for large cities
Europe: average annual % population change by city size
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Small Medium Large Average city
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Absolute fall of small cities
Europe: shares of growing cities by size
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Small (200,000-400,000)Medium (400,000-1,000,000)
Large (>1,000,000)
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But not strong statistically
Europe: city population size and growth, 1960s
R2 = 0.30-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000population (log-scale), 1960
% p
er y
ear
Europe: city population size and growth, 2000-2005
R2 = 0.07
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000population (log-scale), 2000
% p
er y
ear
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1960s-70s were all about urbanisation, esp to smaller cities. Not any more
Relationship between urbanisation and city growth rates
Europe: urbanisation and city population change, 1960s
R2 = 0.29
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100national urbanisation % rates, 1960
% p
er y
ear
Europe: urbanisation and city population change, 2000-2005
R2 = 0.04
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100national urbanisation % rates, 2000
% p
er y
ear
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Levels of urbanisation and population concentration in cities have stabilised; The East-West gap endures
Europe: urbanisation and concentration levels, shares of total population
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%
urbanisation:West
urbanisation:East
concentration:West
concentration:East
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Most cities have become growth laggards, following rather than leading national population change trends
Europe: city and national population growth, 1960s
R2 = 0.20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
national % change
aver
age
city
% c
hang
e
Europe: city and national population growth, 2000-2005
R2 = 0.65
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
-2 -1 0 1 2 3national % change
aver
age
city
% c
hang
e
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Quality of life not an influence
Europe: sun and population growth in cities, 1960s
R2 = 0.01
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000solar radiation, Wh/m2/day
% p
er y
ear
Europe: sun and population growth in cities, 2000-2005
R2 = 0.05
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000solar radiation, Wh/m2/day
% p
er y
ear
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Key findings
The West v. the East
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Dramatic decline in Eastern Europe;Steady decline then stabilising in the West
Europe: annual city population growth rates in the West and the East
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
% p
er y
ear
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Number of growing cities flatters the West, disparages the East
Western Europe: number of cities by population change direction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
no. o
f citi
es
Growing Stable Declining
Eastern Europe: number of cities by population change direction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
no. o
f citi
es
Growing Stable Declining
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Most cities still lagging in the West; Dramatic transformation in the East
Western Europe: number of cities with positive or negative population change relative to the national average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Relatively growing
Relatively declining
Eastern Europe: number of cities with positive or negative population change relative to the national average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Relatively growing
Relatively declining
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Cities lag behind more in the West, but have stabilised. Major decline in the East
Western Europe: population growth of cities v. nations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
% p
er y
ear
National population change (non-weighed mean)
City population change (non-weighed mean)
Eastern Europe: population growth of cities v. nations
-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
% p
er y
ear
National population change (non-weighed mean)
City population change (non-weighed mean)
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No differences between cities in the core and periphery
Western Europe: annual % population growth rates in the core and peripheral cities
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1.25
1.5
1.75
2
2.25
2.5Politicalcore
Politicalperiphery
Economiccore
Economicperiphery
Geographiccore
Geographicperiphery
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Capital cities are growing faster, especially in the West, recently in the East
Western Europe: average annual population change in capitals and other cities
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Capitals Other cities
Eastern Europe: average annual population change in capitals and other cities
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960-65
1965-70
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
Capitals Other cities
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Continuity + decline in Eastern EuropeEastern Europe: city population growth rates, 1960-2005
Belgorod
Magd
eburg
Cluj-N
.
G.Ber
lin
Halle
Togliatti, 28% Balakovo, 17%
Nebr.Chelny, 13%
SaranskG.Novgorod
G.Dre
sden
Budapest
Chem
nitz
I.-Frankivs'k
Luts'kNizhnekamsk Ternopil'
BrestStaryi Oskol
Naberezhnye Chelny
Minsk
Kryv.R
ihSofiaTirana
Cluj-NapocaChişinău
Constanţa
GalaţiBraşov
IaşiTimişoara
G.Leipz
ig
BrestHrodna
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
aver
age
% p
er y
ear
1960s 1980s 2000s
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Similar but confused by ‘recovery’ in the West
Western Europe: city population growth rates, 1960-2005 G.Toulon, 8.9% Vitoria-Gasteiz,
8.6% G.Bonn, 8.2%
G.ToursG.Grenoble
G.Malmö
Bruns
wickG.Glas
gow
G.Bel
fast
G.Hagu
e
G.G
lasgow
G.Milan
G.Trie
ste
G.Genoa
G.Florence
G.Geneva
G.Lausanne
G.Zurich G.Tampere
G.Turku
G.Mes
sina G.Trieste
AlicanteMurcia G.Madrid
Palma de M.G.Utrecht
G.Heerlen GranadaWuppertal
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
aver
age
% p
er y
ear
1960s 1980s 2000s
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Trajectories: long-term growth, fairly recent decline but little resurgence
Most common population growth trajectories (number of cities)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Constant decline (5)
Long-term decline (8)
Medium-term decline (75)
Recent decline (41)
Growth set-back (26)
Recent resurgence (12)
Medium-term resurgence (7)
Long-term resurgence (23)
Constant growth (94)
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Conclusions – Western Europe
Cities clearly out-paced national trends during the 1960s and early 1970s – engines of growth
Then sharp slowdown lasting a decade Then broadly stabilising at a low rate of growth
and below national trends Slight recovery since the nadir of early 1980s,
especially for large cities/capitals, but not robust Many more cities are now growing than shrinking,
but only very slowly Resurgence premature, but improvement signs
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Conclusions – Eastern Europe
Cities far out-paced national trends throughout the 1960s-1980s – partly planned, partly universal (yet failed) urbanisation ‘catching-up’ with the West
Then dramatic slowdown lasting a decade Broadly stabilising at a slow rate of decline,
analogous to national trends No recovery since the nadir of the late 1990s,
except for a few large cities and capitals Four times as many cities are now shrinking than
growing
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