Results Q3 2010 - Akcansa · 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 Number...
Transcript of Results Q3 2010 - Akcansa · 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 Number...
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Results Q3 2010Results Q3 2010IIstanbul , stanbul , November 25November 25th 20th 201010
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ContentsContents
Market Overview 3
Key Figures Overview 16 Export Cement and Clinker 17 Cement and Readymix Volumes and Prices 19 Company Turnover, Operating Income and Net Income 20
Business Lines Cement Profit and Loss Results 22 Readymix Profit and Loss Results 23 Profit and Loss Results 24 Cash Flow 25
Prospects 26
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ContentsContents
Market Overview Key Figures Financial Report Prospects
4" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi veTicaret A.Ş. in addition to sourcing from Exane BNP Paribas Sep’10 report. "*North Africa, West Africa, Russia, Western Europe and USA are the traditional Akcansa export routes.
Cement Consumption Cement Consumption Trends Trends : : Regional Consumption Regional Consumption 20102010--ForecastForecast+7%e excl. India & China; +2%e incl. India & China
-11%
NA
+1 %
Latin America
+5%
WE
-6%
EE
-0%
MED RIM
+5%
+8%
+10%
+8%
+2%
-7%
-4%+10%
+5%
-9%
+5%
+4%
+10
+7-8%
Africa
+2%
Middle East
+8%
Ocenia
+2%
Asia Mature
-2%
Emerging Asia
(excl. India&Chi
na)
+7%
-2%
+12%
Traditional Akcansa Export Routes
+6%
5" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi veTicaret A.Ş. in addition to sourcing from Exane BNP Paribas Sep’10 report. "*North Africa, West Africa, Russia, Western Europe and USA are the traditional Akcansa export routes.
Cement Consumption Cement Consumption Trends Trends : : Regional Consumption Regional Consumption 2011 Estimate2011 Estimate+3%e excl. India & China; +3%e incl. India & China
-11%
NA
+1 %
Latin America
+5%
WE
-3%
EE
+6%
MED RIM
+5%
+7-9%
+10%
+8%
+5%
-7%
-4%+10%
0%
+4%+5%
+10
+5%
Africa
+3%
Middle East
+8%
Ocenia
+5%
Asia Mature
+2%
Emerging Asia
(excl. India&Chi
na)
+5%
+6%
Traditional Akcansa Export Routes
+5%
6Source: Sabancı Holding and Undersecretary of Treasury
Turkey Macroeconomic IndicatorsGovernment
Budget Deficit/GDP
TR-3 Months Deposit Rate,
Annual,%
Population (mio)
2007 -1,6% 21,2% 70,32008 -1,8% 25,7% 71,12009 -5,5% 7,6% 71,92010 -4,0% 8,0% 72,72011 -2,8% 9,2% 73,52012 -2,4% 10,6% 74,32013 -1,6% 11,1% 74,3
4,5% 5,0% 5,5%5,9%
8,1%
5,9%
8,0%7,0% 7,0% 7,0%
6,8%
0,7%
-4,7%
4,7%
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP Growth Inflation (PPI)
Turkey Macroeconomic Assumptions 2007Turkey Macroeconomic Assumptions 2007--2013 2013
• Positive developments in the economy have led to revision in our growth expectation for 2010 from 5.5% to 6,8%.
• EUR/TRL expectation is up by %9, due to weakening of USD against Euro.
1,4640 1,55001,6952
1,85501,7102
2,1408 2,16031,9910 2,0150
2,20382,4115
1,5123 1,5057
1,1647
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
USD/TL EURO/TL
7" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association figures. "
Turkish Cement Sector (1993 Turkish Cement Sector (1993 –– 2011E)2011E)
29,826,7
30,1 32,1 32,7 34,1 31,7 31,5
25,3 26,8 28,130,7
35,1
43,0 44,5 42,7 42,846,0 48,3
3,25,2
4,63,7 4,6 4
4,6 6,6
8,610,4
10,410,7
9,7
7,28,3 13,7
20,519,5
18,0
31,3 31,933,2
34,936,5 36,1
37,339,5 39,5
40,7 41,0 41,7
45,4
50,2 50,6
62,2
68,670,3 70,9
45,4
62,2
68,670,3 70,9
41,741,040,739,539,5
37,336,136,5
34,933,2
31,931,3
48,147,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E 2011 E
mio
tons
Domestic Consumption Exports (cement + clinker)Cement Production Capacity - 90 % with imports cement production capacity 90 %
About 5% growth is expected in domestic
cement demand in 2011
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-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10
GDP
Construction
Turkish Cement Sector (Trends)Turkish Cement Sector (Trends)
" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to GYODER (Real Estate Platform of Turkey). "
Construction sector grew over 20% in second quarter of 2010 and is the fastest growing sector.
9" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association figures. "
Turkish Cement Market (Expectations)Turkish Cement Market (Expectations)
Cement Consumption by Segment
66,3% 61,2%53,4% 54,9% 54,7% 54,1%
13,1%14,6%
12,2% 8,3% 8,2% 8,2%
3,5% 4,0%
4,1% 3,8% 3,8% 3,8%
17,2% 20,2%30,3% 33,0% 33,4% 34,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-E 2011-E1. Private Housing 2. Commercial 3. Public 4. Infrastructure / Projects
Infrastructure projects share has dramatically increased in recent years. Housing has still the highest portion
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Turkey Clinker&Cement Geographical DistributionTurkey Clinker&Cement Geographical Distribution
" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association figures. "
Cement Capacities (%)
AKCANSA; 9%
OYAK; 17%
NUH; 6%
CIMENTAS; 5%
Other; 55%
BURSA; 3%
CIMSA; 6%
Clinker Capacities (%)
OYAK; 14%
NUH; 7%
CIMENTAS; 5%
Other; 55%
BURSA; 2%CIMSA; 7%
AKCANSA; 11%
-Sabancı and Heidelberg Groups represent 18% of Turkey's total clinker capacity
- 2010: 65 plants (48 integrated, 17 grinding)
- 65% owned by Turkish Groups
OYAK (Mardin)
LIMAK
ASKALE
Cementir
YURT
ASKALE
ASKALE
ASKALE
LIMAK
Cementir
LIMAK
Sanko/Barbetti
Titan
OYAK (Unye)
OYAK
OYAK (Adana)
Çimsa
Çimsa
Cimpor
Cimpor
AkçansaCimpor
Cimpor
Vicat
Titan
Batı
Göltaş
Italcementi
Denizli/CRH
Batı
Egeçim
Cementir
Batı
Italcementi
Bursa
Vicat
Italcementi
Çimsa
OYAK (Bolu)
SankoOyak
NUH
OYAK (Aslan)Ado/Titan
Tracim
CimporSancim
Karçimsa
Akçansa
Akçansa
Ado/Titan
Cementir
Ado/Titan
Italcementi
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Turkish Cement Market, Sales Volumes Change %, 2010 vs 2009 Turkish Cement Market, Sales Volumes Change %, 2010 vs 2009 (August YTD)(August YTD)
" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association figures. "
East Anatolia+28 %
Marmara+19 %
South East Anatolia+6 %
Aegean+4%
Central Anatolia+22 %
Mediterranean-4%
Black Sea+20%
Cement demand in Turkish domestic market increased by 13,6% yoy.
Mediterranean region is the only region experiencing decline in volumes in 2010.
Akcansa operates in Marmara, Aegean and Black Sea regions with increasing cement demand
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Steam Coal Prices vs. Petroleum CokeSteam Coal Prices vs. Petroleum Coke
Source: HC Fuels and Petroleum Coke Quarterly
API4: Coal Index; PACE:Petrocoke Index
API4 vs. PACE
79,672,5
58,363,6
57,361,8 61,2
65,361,7 63,5
68,0 68,4
86,081,3 83,9 86,6
89,8 92,9 90,8
35,0
23,020,0
24,028,0 31,0
35,0 35,040,0
46,0
54,058,0
68,072,0 72,0 74,0 77,0
83,087,0 88,088,7
94,094,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
API 4 PACE
13
Baltic Supramex IndexBaltic Supramex Index
Source: HC Trading Research
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Number of Building Permits
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2
Number of Building Permits
IndicatorsIndicators
Source: GYODER Q210 report
Housing Loans bn TL
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3
Housing Loans bn TL
Mortgage Loan Rates
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2011 E
Mortgage Loan Rates
Housing Loan rates expected to
be low
Housing loan stockon the increase
Number of building permits issued on the
rise
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ContentsContents
Market Overview Key Figures Financial Report Prospects
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Financial HighlightsFinancial HighlightsYTDYTD’’10 vs. YTD10 vs. YTD’’09 09
Turnover is up by 16% to 624,9 mio TL due to increasing cement volume and price.
Readymix sales volumes at highest levels.
Higher cost of sales due to increased volume and input price inflation, notably in fuel and energy prices.
– Fuel prices increased significantly compared to last year (60%).– Purchasing Fitness and energy efficiency management (highest alternative fuel
consumption achieved) to offset the effect of increasing prices
Operating Income is 32% lower in Sep’10 vs. Sep’09 (58,9 mio TL vs. 87,1 mio TL) due to the higher energy costs.
* These figures include Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
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AkAkççansa is still increasing the share of cement in total export ansa is still increasing the share of cement in total export
Akçansa Total Export (Q2'10)
35%
65%
Clinker
Cement
Akçansa Total Export (Q3'10)
74% 26%
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AkAkççansa outperformed in Export (YTDansa outperformed in Export (YTD’’10 vs. YTD10 vs. YTD’’09)09)
TON (000) Akçansa 2010 vs. 2009
Total 2010 vs. 2009
Export Cement 20% -5%Export Clinker -15% -32%Total Export -7% -10%
" This presentation/report demonstrates "estimated results" of market research done by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. in addition to Central Anatolian Exporters Union figures. "
$ (000) Akçansa 2010 vs. 2009
Total 2010 vs. 2009
Export Cement 15% -3%Export Clinker -20% -31%Total Export 4% -7%
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Market Performance YTD 2010Market Performance YTD 2010
Volume Price (TL/ton)
Domestic Cement
North Marmara
South Marmara
East Marmara
Aegean
Black Sea
Cement2010
Volume Price ($/ton)
Export Cement
Export Clinker
Cement2010
* These figures include only Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
Volume Price (TL/m3)
General
Europe
Asia
Thrace
Aegean
Black Sea
Readymix2010
-2%<Volume, Price < 2%
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Key Figures (million TL)Key Figures (million TL)
163,7 138,3 173,8
254,4
205,8
240,5
226,5
194,7
210,5
2008 2009 2010
27,916,9 8,3
62,2
37,0
28,3
51,1
33,2
22,2
2008 2009 2010
Turnover Operating Income
Net Income
Operating income in 2010; • volume and price growth, • upward trend in the cost structure,
• Electricity cost increase.• Fuel prices are higher in 2010, compared to 2009
• Higher AF consumption in 2010 vs. 2009
Net income in 2010;• Lower interest and tax charge
* These figures include Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
8,2-3,4 3,9
62,0
44,1 27,1
36,7
27,0
19,6
2008 2009 2010
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ContentsContents
Market Overview Key Figures Financial Report Prospects
22
Cement B/L Cement B/L Profit and Loss Accounts YTDProfit and Loss Accounts YTD & Q& Q33
YTD Var Q3 Var.2010 YTD'10 vs. YTD'09 2010 Q3'10 vs. Q3'09
Net Sales 421,1 45,3 140,5 7,7
Cost of Sales -348,1 -64,0 -112,7 -15,2
Gross Margin 73,0 -18,7 27,8 -7,5
Operating Expenses -19,1 -4,2 -6,4 -0,7
Other Operating Income/Charges -3,3 1,6 -0,8 1,2
Operating Profit/Loss 50,6 -21,2 20,7 -7,0
Cement Mio TL
* These figures include only Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
• Turnover is still increasing in Q3’10 compared to Q3’09 due to both increasing volumes and prices.• However increase in cost of sales are higher than increase in net sales mainly due to input price inflation and increased volume.
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Readymix Readymix Profit and Loss Accounts YTDProfit and Loss Accounts YTD & Q& Q33
YTD Var Q3 Var.2010 YTD'10 vs. YTD'09 2010 Q3'10 vs. Q3'09
Net Sales 262,6 52,3 91,0 13,1
Cost of Sales -248,4 -60,2 -87,5 -17,8
Gross Margin 14,2 -8,0 3,5 -4,7
Operating Expenses -4,9 -0,2 -1,6 -0,1
Other Operating Income/Charges -0,9 1,1 -0,2 1,0
Operating Profit/Loss 8,3 -7,0 1,6 -3,9
Readymix Mio TL
* These figures include only Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
• Increase in both YTD and quarterly sales comparing to previous year.
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Profit and Loss Accounts YTDProfit and Loss Accounts YTD & & Q3Q3
YTD Var Q3 Var.2010 YTD'10 vs. YTD'09 2010 Q3'10 vs. Q3'09
Net Sales 608,7 82,5 204,0 14,2Cost of Sales -521,5 -109,2 -172,7 -26,5Gross Margin 87,2 -26,7 31,3 -12,3Marketing&Sales Expense -5,6 -0,5 -1,9 -0,1General Management Expenses -18,5 -3,9 -6,1 -0,8Other Operating Income/Charges -4,2 2,7 -1,0 2,2Operating Profit/Loss 58,9 -28,3 22,2 -10,9Non-Operating Financial Income 26,8 0,7 4,6 -1,0Non-Operating Financial Charge -24,3 8,1 -2,6 3,8Profit/Loss before Taxes 61,4 -19,5 24,2 -8,2Taxes On Income -7,8 7,2 -3,6 2,7Deferred Tax for the Period -3,0 -4,9 -1,1 -1,9Net Income/Loss 50,6 -17,1 19,6 -7,4
Company Mio TL
* These figures include only Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
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Cash Flow Statement JanCash Flow Statement Jan--SepSep 20201010YTD YTD2009 2010
Cash flow from operating activitiesOperating Income before the adjustments in Working Capital 134,3 99,5Changes in Working Capital 3,1 -72,2Decrease of provisions through cash payments -0,6 -0,3
136,9 26,9
Cash flow from investing activitiesTangible fixed assets -5,2 -18,4Financial assets 0,0 1,4Proceed from fixed asset disposals/consolidation 0,2 0,6Dividend Received 6,7 8,2
1,7 -8,2Cash flow from financing activitiesDividend payments -70,0 -65,4Net proceeds from bonds and loans -65,7 99,2
-135,7 -135,7 33,8 33,8
Net change in cash and cash equivalents - continuing operations 2,9 52,5
Change in cash & cash equivalents
Cash & cash equivalents at 1 January 29,3 40,1
Cash & cash equivalents on 30 Sep 32,2 2,9 92,5 52,5
Company Mio TL
* These figures include only Akçansa and Karçimsa results. These figures represent the management report view.
* Improvement in economic conditions reflected on capital expenditure.
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ContentsContents
Market Overview Key Figures Financial Report Prospects
27
Prospects 2010Prospects 2010 and beyondand beyond
•• Significant sales volume growth in the domestic marketSignificant sales volume growth in the domestic market
•• GGrowth expectations rowth expectations for the construction businessfor the construction business
•• Electric cElectric cost ost reduction at reduction at ÇÇanakkale Plant after mid 2011 anakkale Plant after mid 2011 following the following the Waste Heat projectWaste Heat project
•• Continuous and steady increase in alternative fuel usage Continuous and steady increase in alternative fuel usage going forward going forward
•• Sales prices are increasing both in cement and readymixSales prices are increasing both in cement and readymix
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Turkey is under constructionTurkey is under construction
MarmarayContinuing, 320 k m3
Metro projectsContinuing, 500 k m3
Sinpaş residence projectsContinuing, 500 k m3
Hydroelectric Power Plant Projects• As of 2009:
- Operating: 187- As of May 2010:
- Under construction:145- Projects: 1.576- Planned: 325
- Source: Zaman July 19 2010
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Projects in the PipelineProjects in the Pipeline
İzmit – İzmir HighwaySigned, not started• Highway (421 km)• İzmit Bridge (3 km)• Four tunnels (7,4 km)• 30 viaducts (18,2 km)
Çanakkale BridgeProject• Çanakkale Bridge (2,2 km)• Highway (13,7 km)
Third BridgeProject• 3 mio m3 concrete excluding
the accomodation consumption
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High Speed Train Projects• İstanbul - Ankara (533 km)• Ankara - Konya (212 km)Planned• İzmir – Ankara (606 km)
Tunnels Construction in İstanbul
Project, 140 km
Third Airport in SilivriProject
Projects in the PipelineProjects in the Pipeline
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Cement Consumption and Pre Election
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Parlimentary Municipal Parlimentary Municipal
November 2002 March 2004 July 2007 March 2009
3 Month Before6 Month Before12 Month Before
Pre Election and Cement ConsumptionPre Election and Cement Consumption
Source: EFG Cement Sector Update-Sep 10
Global financial crisis otherwise elections seem to propel
consumption
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-1H
SOUTHERN ANATOLIAEASTERN ANATOLIACENTRAL ANATOLIAMEDITERRANEANBLACK SEAAEGEANMARMARA
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Domestic Sales by Regional Shares (1998Domestic Sales by Regional Shares (1998--2010)2010)
Municipal elections Mar 2004-Mar 2009
Turkish Financial Crisis
Parlimentary elections Nov 2002-Jul 2007
Global financial crisis in 2009
Coalition government years
Elections have positive impact on consumption in regions where Akcansa operates
Source: TCMA
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ThanksThanks for your attention.for your attention.
Questions?Questions?
34
ContactsContacts
Gary WhiteheadGary Whitehead CFOCFO
PhonePhone +90 216 571 30 20+90 216 571 30 20 [email protected]@akcansa.com.trFaxFax +90 216 571 30 21+90 216 571 30 21
Banu Banu ÜçÜçer er Communication OfficerCommunication Officer
PhonePhone +90 216 571 30 13+90 216 571 30 13 [email protected]@akcansa.com.trFaxFax +90 216 571 30 11+90 216 571 30 11
Info Adress: Info Adress: [email protected]@akcansa.com.tr
WebsitesWebsites
www.akcansa.com.trwww.akcansa.com.trwww.betonsa.com.trwww.betonsa.com.trwww.sabanci.com.trwww.sabanci.com.trwww.heidelbergcement.comwww.heidelbergcement.com
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DisclaimerThis presentation (Presentation) has been prepared by Akçansa Çimento Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. for the sole purpose of providing information relating to Akçansa (Information).
This Presentation is based on public information and data provided by Akçansa management and basically demonstrates forward looking statements based on numerous assumptions regarding our present and future business strategies and the environment in which we will operate in the future.
Please be aware that the forward looking statements and/or assumptions of future events declared in the Presentation and/or in the Information may not prove to be accurate.
No warranty or representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or timeliness of this Information is made by Akçansa.
No profitability or any other warranty is claimed by the Information provided either on company or sectoral basis.
No liability/responsibility is accepted by Akçansa for any loss or damages of any kind, incurred by any person for any information howsoever arising from any use of this Presentation or the Information.
The Information contained at this Presentation has been included for general informational purposes only and no person should make any investment decisions in reliance upon the information contained herein.
Akçansa shall not be held responsible for any kinds of losses that may rise from investments and/or transactions based on this Presentation or Information or from use of this Information and/or Presentation.