RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/ES1/GRAINDUS_20150504.pdf · Grasim...

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Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Grasim Industries(Grasim) Q4FY15 EBITDA of INR1.3bn was lower than our INR1.7bn estimate due to poor VSF performance. Though VSF volumes surprised surging 19% YoY (versus our 12% estimate), realisations dipped 4.5% QoQ (versus our 3% estimate) and cost/t stood flat (with increase in fixed costs from newly commissioned Vilayat plant offsetting decline in pulp cost). Ergo, VSF margins dipped ~430bps QoQ versus our 200bps estimate. While lower variable costs (down 7% YoY) will cushion margins, sharp recovery is unlikely in the near term given pricing pressure owing to subdued outlook for cotton and polyester fibres. Accordingly, we lower our FY16E EBITDA for VSF by ~23% and keep it unchanged for FY17. Performance of cement business has already been discussed in our note, Soft Volumes a near term concern , dated April 27, 2015, wherein we had pruned our FY16/17 EBITDA estimates by ~13%/9%. Ergo, we prune our consolidated EBITDA estimates by 13%/8% for FY16/17. We remain optimistic on recovery in both cement and VSF businesses from H2FY16 and maintain ‘BUY’ with target price of INR4,422 (INR4,725 earlier). VSF: Realisations remain under pressure VSF volumes, at 118kt, rose 19% YoY while realisations dipped ~4.5% QoQ. As cost of pulp fell 13% YoY, overall cost/t remained flat due to higher fixed cost from newly commissioned Vilayat project. Ergo, PBIDT margin slipped 430bps QoQ. Owing to weakness in cotton and polyester prices, VSF prices are expected to be under pressure in the near term. Hence, we lower our FY16 EBITDA estimates for this segment by 23% and being optimistic on recovery, keep FY17 estimates unchanged. Outlook and valuations: Optimistic on recovery; maintain ‘BUY’ We continue to be positive on the cement business on expectation of demand improvement from H2FY16 and slowing capacity addition. In VSF too, we estimate slowing capacity addition globally to aid improvement in industry utilisation. We continue to value Grasim on SOTP basis, valuing VSF at 5x FY17E EV/EBITDA and 60.3% stake in UltraTech Cement at 35% holding company discount to our fair value estimate. At CMP, the stock trades at 6.7x FY16E and 4.6x FY17E EV/EBITDA. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ recommendation/rating with target price of INR4,422. RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES Lower VSF realisations impact performance EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Absolute Rating BUY Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium Sector Relative to Market Underweight MARKET DATA (R: GRAS.BO, B: GRASIM IN) CMP : INR 3,625 Target Price : INR 4,422 52-week range (INR) : 4,025 / 2,583 Share in issue (mn) : 91.9 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 333 / 5,241 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 93.3 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q3FY15 Q2FY15 Promoters * 25.5 25.5 25.5 MF's, FI's & BK’s 16.9 16.7 16.4 FII's 22.8 22.8 22.8 Others 34.7 34.9 35.3 * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) : NIL PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock Nifty EW Construction Material Index 1 month (2.3) (3.7) (2.0) 3 months (7.4) (6.1) (6.8) 12 months 37.2 23.5 6.6 Navin Sahadeo +91 22 6623 3473 [email protected] Rahul Veera +91 22 6623 3321 [email protected] India Equity Research| Cement May 4, 2015 Financials (Conslidated) (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % change Q3FY15 % change FY15 FY16E FY17E Net rev. 88,196 84,187 4.8 80,365 9.7 328,473 361,904 417,801 EBITDA 15,489 15,270 1.4 12,025 28.8 51,445 68,638 92,560 Core PAT 7,227 9,895 (27.0) 4,585 57.6 24,369 36,069 54,153 EPS (INR) 78.7 107.7 (27.0) 49.9 57.6 190.8 271.3 401.6 P/E (x) 19.0 13.4 9.0 EV/EBIDTA (x) 9.1 6.7 4.6 ROE (%) 7.8 10.3 13.6

Transcript of RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/ES1/GRAINDUS_20150504.pdf · Grasim...

Page 1: RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/ES1/GRAINDUS_20150504.pdf · Grasim Industries 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Company Description Headquartered in Mumbai,

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.

Edelweiss Securities Limited

Grasim Industries’ (Grasim) Q4FY15 EBITDA of INR1.3bn was lower than our INR1.7bn estimate due to poor VSF performance. Though VSF volumes surprised surging 19% YoY (versus our 12% estimate), realisations dipped 4.5% QoQ (versus our 3% estimate) and cost/t stood flat (with increase in fixed costs from newly commissioned Vilayat plant offsetting decline in pulp cost). Ergo, VSF margins dipped ~430bps QoQ versus our 200bps estimate. While lower variable costs (down 7% YoY) will cushion margins, sharp recovery is unlikely in the near term given pricing pressure owing to subdued outlook for cotton and polyester fibres. Accordingly, we lower our FY16E EBITDA for VSF by ~23% and keep it unchanged for FY17. Performance of cement business has already been discussed in our note, Soft Volumes a near term concern, dated April 27, 2015, wherein we had pruned our FY16/17 EBITDA estimates by ~13%/9%. Ergo, we prune our consolidated EBITDA estimates by 13%/8% for FY16/17. We remain optimistic on recovery in both cement and VSF businesses from H2FY16 and maintain ‘BUY’ with target price of INR4,422 (INR4,725 earlier).

VSF: Realisations remain under pressure

VSF volumes, at 118kt, rose 19% YoY while realisations dipped ~4.5% QoQ. As cost of

pulp fell 13% YoY, overall cost/t remained flat due to higher fixed cost from newly

commissioned Vilayat project. Ergo, PBIDT margin slipped 430bps QoQ. Owing to

weakness in cotton and polyester prices, VSF prices are expected to be under pressure

in the near term. Hence, we lower our FY16 EBITDA estimates for this segment by 23%

and being optimistic on recovery, keep FY17 estimates unchanged.

Outlook and valuations: Optimistic on recovery; maintain ‘BUY’

We continue to be positive on the cement business on expectation of demand

improvement from H2FY16 and slowing capacity addition. In VSF too, we estimate

slowing capacity addition globally to aid improvement in industry utilisation. We

continue to value Grasim on SOTP basis, valuing VSF at 5x FY17E EV/EBITDA and 60.3%

stake in UltraTech Cement at 35% holding company discount to our fair value estimate.

At CMP, the stock trades at 6.7x FY16E and 4.6x FY17E EV/EBITDA. We maintain

‘BUY/SO’ recommendation/rating with target price of INR4,422.

RESULT UPDATE

GRASIM INDUSTRIES Lower VSF realisations impact performance

COMPANYNAME

EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS

Absolute Rating BUY

Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer

Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium

Sector Relative to Market Underweight

MARKET DATA (R: GRAS.BO, B: GRASIM IN)

CMP : INR 3,625

Target Price : INR 4,422

52-week range (INR) : 4,025 / 2,583

Share in issue (mn) : 91.9

M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 333 / 5,241

Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 93.3

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

Current Q3FY15 Q2FY15

Promoters *

25.5 25.5 25.5

MF's, FI's & BK’s 16.9 16.7 16.4

FII's 22.8 22.8 22.8

Others 34.7 34.9 35.3

* Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue)

: NIL

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)

Stock Nifty EW

Construction Material Index

1 month (2.3) (3.7) (2.0)

3 months (7.4) (6.1) (6.8)

12 months 37.2 23.5 6.6

Navin Sahadeo +91 22 6623 3473

[email protected]

Rahul Veera +91 22 6623 3321

[email protected]

India Equity Research| Cement

May 4, 2015

Financials (Conslidated) (INR mn)

Year to March Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % change Q3FY15 % change FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net rev. 88,196 84,187 4.8 80,365 9.7 328,473 361,904 417,801

EBITDA 15,489 15,270 1.4 12,025 28.8 51,445 68,638 92,560

Core PAT 7,227 9,895 (27.0) 4,585 57.6 24,369 36,069 54,153

EPS (INR) 78.7 107.7 (27.0) 49.9 57.6 190.8 271.3 401.6

P/E (x) 19.0 13.4 9.0

EV/EBIDTA (x) 9.1 6.7 4.6

ROE (%) 7.8 10.3 13.6

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Cement

2 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Other highlights

Chemicals: Volumes and margins decline QoQ

The segment volumes surged ~21% YoY, but fell ~1% QoQ. Blended realisations/t were

down 2% QoQ, while the costs/t jumped 1% QoQ impacting PBIDTA margin by ~220bps

QoQ. Though the volume outlook remains positive, margins are unlikely to see an uptick in

the near term. Accordingly, we lower our FY16/17 EBITDA estimates for the segment by

19%/12%.

Plant shutdown at Nagda (MP)

Grasim has temporarily suspended production at its Nagda plant (capacity 162KTPA), due to

water shortage caused by deficient rain. Production is fully suspended since April 30, 2015

and operations will resume with the onset of monsoons. However, ramp up at Vilayat is

expected to ensure no downward revision in our volume estimates. We are currently

assuming volumes of 427kt for FY16 versus Grasim’s guidance of 465kt

Capex update

The company commissioned 22ktpa of the new VSF capacity at Vilayat, Gujarat, in March

2015. Grasim’s total VSF capacity now stands at 497KTPA in India.

Merger of Aditya Birla Chemicals India (ABCIL) with the company (with effect from April 1,

2015) will increase production capacity of caustic soda from 452KTPA to 804KTPA. The

process is on track and expected to be completed by Q3FY16 on obtaining requisite

approvals.

In cement, subsidiary UltraTech Cement had proposed to acquire cement units of Jaiprakash

Associates in Madhya Pradesh in Q3FY15. As per the company, the transaction is expected

to be completed in Q3FY16, months after obtaining all required regulatory approvals.

Table 1: SOTP valuation: Target price of INR4,422 (INR mn)

Source: Edelweiss research

Particulars FY17E

Assumed EV/EBITDA multiple for VSF (x) 5.0

EV of VSF segment (1) 36,915

EV of Chemicals & Textile segments @3x EV/EBITDA (2) 9,615

EV of Grasim Standalone (1) + (2) = (3) 46,530

Net debt of Grasim excl UltraTech (4) (18,656)

Derived Mcap of Grasim Standalone (3 ) + (4) = (5) 65,186

Value of 60.3% holding in UltraTech @35% disount (6) 340,905

Derived Mcap of Grasim (5) + (6) = (7) 406,092

S/o (8) 91.8

Value per share (7) / (8) 4,422

Potential Upside 21.8

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Grasim Industries

3 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Financial snapshot - Standalone (INR mn)

Year to March Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % change Q3FY15 % change

Revenues 17,332 15,489 11.9 15,593 11.2

Raw material 10,099 9,093 11.1 8,590 17.6

Staff costs 1,401 820 71.0 1,171 19.6

Power & fuel 2,601 2,168 20.0 2,687 (3.2)

Freight outward 334 281 18.9 268 24.4

Others 1,606 1,541 4.2 1,065 50.8

Total expenditure 16,040 13,902 15.4 13,782 16.4

EBITDA 1,291 1,587 (18.6) 1,811 (28.7)

Interest 131 109 20.0 116 12.6

Depreciation 843 635 32.8 629 34.2

Other income 507 630 (19.4) 308 64.8

Extraordinary items 262 - NA - NA

PBT 562 1,472 (61.8) 1,374 (59.1)

Tax 252 169 49.0 437 (42.2)

Reported Profit 310 1,303 (76.2) 937 (66.9)

Adj EPS (INR) 3.4 14.2 (76.2) 10.2 (66.9)

as % of net revenues

Raw material 58.3 58.7 55.1

Staff expenses 8.1 5.3 7.5

Power & fuel 15.0 14.0 17.2

Freight outward 1.9 1.8 1.7

Other expenses 9.3 9.9 6.8

EBITDA 7.5 10.2 11.6

Adjusted net profit 1.8 8.4 6.0

Tax rate (%) 44.9 11.5 31.8

Segmentwise results - standalone

Segment Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % change Q3FY15 % change

Viscose staple fibre

Revenue (INR mn) 14,053 12,736 10.3 12,035 16.8

Volume ('000 tonnes) 118.5 99.4 19.2 97.0 22.1

Blended realisation (INR/tonne) 118,606 128,144 (7.4) 124,066 (4.4)

PBIDTA (INR mn) 970 1,282 (24.3) 1,359 (28.6)

PBIDTA margin (%) 6.9 10.1 (3.2) 11.3 (4.4)

PBIDTA / tonne (INR/tonne) 8,190 12,901 (36.5) 14,009 (41.5)

Chemicals

Revenue (INR mn) 4,285 3,367 27.3 4,416 (3.0)

Volume ('000 tonnes) 105 86 21.4 107 (1.4)

Net realisation (INR/tonne) 40,807 38,936 4.8 41,461 (1.6)

PBIDTA (INR mn) 555 550 0.8 674 (17.7)

PBIDTA margin (%) 12.9 16.3 (3.4) 15.3 (2.3)

PBIDTA / tonne (INR/tonne) 5,282 6,362 (17.0) 6,324 (16.5)

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Cement

4 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % change Q3FY15 % change FY15 FY16E FY17E

Net revenues 88,196 84,187 4.8 80,365 9.7 328,473 361,904 417,801 Raw material 22,899 22,026 4.0 20,201 13.4 - - -

Power and fuel 16,040 15,893 0.9 16,522 (2.9) - - -

Freight outward 15,636 14,576 7.3 14,007 11.6 - - -

Staff costs 5,693 4,281 33.0 5,354 6.3 - - -

Other expenses 12,439 12,141 2.5 12,256 1.5 - - -

Total expenditure 72,708 68,917 5.5 68,339 6.4 277,029 293,267 325,241

EBITDA 15,489 15,270 1.4 12,025 28.8 51,445 68,638 92,560

Depreciation 4,175 3,892 7.3 3,832 8.9 15,632 17,893 19,140

Other income 1,096 1,283 (14.5) 571 92.0 5,390 7,408 10,028

Interest 1,826 1,082 68.7 1,857 (1.7) 6,674 7,391 7,417

Profit before tax 10,489 11,579 (9.4) 6,907 51.9 34,528 50,762 76,032

Tax 3,262 1,684 93.8 2,322 40.5 10,159 14,693 21,878

Minority interest 2,609 3,405 (23.4) 1,603 62.8 8,379 12,656 18,772

Reported net profit 7,227 9,895 (27.0) 4,585 57.6 24,369 36,069 54,153

Adjusted Profit After Tax 7,227 9,895 (27.0) 4,585 57.6 17,533 24,929 36,896

No. of shares (mn) 92 92 92 92 92 92

Diluted EPS (INR) 56.2 107.7 (27.0) 49.9 57.6 190.8 271.3 401.6

Market cap / rev. (x) - - - 1.0 0.9 0.8

As % of net revenues

Raw material 26.0 26.2 25.1 - - -

Employee cost 6.5 5.1 6.7 - - -

Power & fuel 18.2 18.9 20.6 - - -

Freight outward (% of revenue) 17.7 17.3 17.4 - - -

Other expenditure 14.1 14.4 15.3 - - -

EBITDA 17.6 18.1 15.0 15.7 19.0 22.2

Adjusted net profit 8.1 11.6 5.7 7.3 9.8 12.7

Tax rate 31.1 14.5 33.6 29.4 28.9 28.8

Change in Estimates

FY16E FY17E

New Old % change New Old % change Comments

Net Revenue 361,904 382,143 (5.3) 417,801 437,857 (4.6) Factoring in cuts in VSF and

Chemicals segment, we reduce our

EBITDA for FY16/FY17 estimates by

13%/9% respectively

EBITDA 68,638 79,300 (13.4) 92,560 101,121 (8.5)

EBITDA Margin 19.0 20.8 22.2 23.1

Adjusted PAT 24,929 30295 (17.7) 36,897 41471 (11.0)

PAT Margin 10.4 11.4 13.3 13.9

Capex 34,000 23,000 47.8 17,000 17,000 0.0

Page 5: RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/ES1/GRAINDUS_20150504.pdf · Grasim Industries 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Company Description Headquartered in Mumbai,

Grasim Industries

5 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Company Description

Headquartered in Mumbai, Grasim is the flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, and is

one of the largest private sector companies in India. Incorporated in 1947, it commenced

operations in 1948 as a textile manufacturer. Over the years, it has become a diversified

conglomerate with presence in four business segments—VSF, cement, chemicals, and

textiles. VSF and cement are the main segments, contributing ~90% to the company’s

revenue and operating profit. Post the de-merger of its cement business, Grasim holds

60.3% in UltraTech, which now has a cement capacity of 63mtpa (including 3 mtpa of ETA

Star Cement). Investment Theme

We continue to value Grasim on SOTP basis, valuing VSF business at 5x FY17E EV/EBITDA

and 60.3% stake in the cement business at 35% holding company discount to our fair value

estimate of UltraTech Cement. Our revised target price of INR4,422 offers ~22% upside

potential. We maintain our recommendation/rating of ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer ’for

Grasim.

Key Risks

Sharp increase in cement and VSF prices.

Sharp decrease in input cost for VSF and also international and domestic coal prices.

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6 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Cement

Financial Statements

Income statement (INR mn)

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Income from operations 293,240 328,473 361,904 417,801

Total operating expenses 244,096 277,029 293,267 325,241

EBITDA 49,144 51,445 68,638 92,560

Depreciation & Amortization 14,575 15,632 17,893 19,140

EBIT 34,570 35,812 50,744 73,420

Add: Other income 5,766 5,390 7,408 10,028

Less: Interest Expense 4,473 6,674 7,391 7,417

Profit Before Tax 35,862 34,528 50,762 76,032

Less: Provision for Tax 7,348 10,159 14,693 21,878

Less: Minority Interest 8,828 8,379 12,656 18,772

Add: Share of profit from

associates

1,029 1,542 1,516 1,516

Reported Profit 20,715 17,533 24,929 36,897

Adjusted Profit 20,715 17,533 24,929 36,897

Adjusted Basic EPS 225.6 190.8 271.3 401.6

No. of Diluted shares outstanding

(mn)

92 92 92 92

Adjusted Diluted EPS 225.6 190.8 271.3 401.6

Adjusted Cash EPS 384.3 361.0 466.1 610.0

Dividend per share (DPS) 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5

Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 17.1 13.8 9.7 6.6

Common size metrics

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Operating expenses 83.2 84.3 81.0 77.8

Depreciation 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.6

Interest Expense 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.8

EBITDA margins 16.8 15.7 19.0 22.2

Net Profit margins 10.1 7.9 10.4 13.3

Growth ratios (%)

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Revenues 5.1 12.0 10.2 15.4

EBITDA (17.0) 4.7 33.4 34.9

PBT (30.7) (3.7) 47.0 49.8

Adjusted Profit (19.0) (15.4) 42.2 48.0

EPS (19.1) (15.4) 42.2 48.0

Key Assumptions

Year to March FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Macro

GDP(Y-o-Y %) 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.7

Inflation (Avg) 9.5 6.7 5.0 5.0

Repo rate (exit rate) 8.0 7.5 6.8 6.5

USD/INR (Avg) 60.5 61.0 62.0 62.0

Sector

All India cement demand (mn

tonnes)

238 257 281 309

Industry capacity utilisation (%) 74.4 75.8 76.9 81.5

All India average price (INR/50 kg

bag)

290.3 303.0 321.0 346.0

Company

VSF Capacity ('000 tonnes) 377.8 497.8 497.8 497.8

Capacity Utilisation (%) 96 82 86 93

Effective tax rate (%) 20.5 29.4 28.9 28.8

VSF volumes ('000 tonnes) 367 403 427 461

VSF realisations(INR/tonne) 128,459 123,474 122,373 130,311

VSF EBITDA/tonne (INR) 17,848 9,687 11,097 16,011

VSF cost per tonne 110,610.4 113,786.7 111,275.7 114,300.0

Debtor days 29 29 27 25

Inventory days 60 60 61 57

Payable days 46 46 48 45

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7 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Grasim Industries Cement

Peer comparison valuation

Market cap Diluted Price to Earnings

Ratio _x0028_P/E_x0029_

(X)

Enterprise Value / EBITDA (X) Return on Average Equity

_x0028_ROAE_x0029_ (%) Name (USD mn) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E

Grasim Industries 5,241 13.4 9.0 6.7 4.6 10.3 13.6

ACC 4,358 22.2 15.4 11.2 7.9 14.8 19.7

Ambuja Cement Ltd 5,889 29.3 17.6 14.3 9.1 12.2 18.5

UltraTech Cement 11,701 23.3 15.7 13.2 9.2 15.7 19.8

Median - 22.8 15.6 12.2 8.5 13.5 19.1

AVERAGE - 22.0 14.4 11.4 7.7 13.3 17.9

Source: Edelweiss research

Cash flow metrics

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Operating cash flow 35,566 71,553 59,853 79,210

Investing cash flow (23,968) (65,233) (44,484) (15,484)

Financing cash flow (10,463) 22,908 (9,809) (9,835)

Net cash Flow 1,136 29,228 5,560 53,891

Capex (33,568) (66,776) (34,000) (17,000)

Dividend paid (3,536) (2,418) (2,418) (2,418)

Profitability and efficiency ratios

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Return on Average Equity (ROAE)

(%)

10.0 7.8 10.3 13.6

Pre-tax Return on Capital

Employed (ROCE) (%)

25.8 25.3 33.3 43.5

Debtors Days 29 29 27 25

Current Ratio 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.2

Gross Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.0

Gross Debt/Equity 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

Adjusted Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

Interest Coverage Ratio 7.7 5.4 6.9 9.9

Operating ratios

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Total Asset Turnover 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Fixed Asset Turnover 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2

Equity Turnover 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Valuation parameters

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Adjusted Diluted EPS (INR) 225.6 190.8 271.3 401.6

Y-o-Y growth (%) (19.1) (15.4) 42.2 48.0

Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 384.3 361.0 466.1 610.0

Diluted Price to Earnings Ratio

(P/E) (x)

16.1 19.0 13.4 9.0

Price to Book Ratio (P/B) (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2

Enterprise Value / Sales (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0

Enterprise Value / EBITDA (x) 9.1 9.1 6.7 4.6

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Balance sheet (INR mn)

As on 31st March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Share capital 1,364 1,510 1,510 1,510

Reserves & Surplus 214,779 229,887 252,397 286,876

Shareholders' funds 216,143 231,398 253,908 288,386

Minority Interest 69,358 76,818 89,474 108,246

Short term borrowings 20,692 30,714 30,714 30,714

Long term borrowings 76,298 64,233 64,233 64,233

Total Borrowings 96,990 94,947 94,947 94,947

Deferred Tax Liability (net) 28,030 34,291 34,291 34,291

Sources of funds 410,522 437,453 472,619 525,870

Gross Block 233,249 290,623 317,991 323,098

Net Block 218,674 274,991 300,098 303,958

Intangible Assets 676 676 676 676

CWIP (incl. intangible) 50,080 37,330 28,330 22,330

Total Fixed Assets 302,200 345,831 361,938 359,798

Non current investments 26,733 38,577 38,577 38,577

Cash and cash equivalents 53,342 38,780 56,340 110,230

Inventories 42,565 47,885 49,885 51,885

Sundry Debtors 25,092 26,474 27,974 29,474

Loans & Advances 26,782 42,348 42,348 42,348

Other Current Assets 634 641 641 641

Total Current Assets (ex cash) 95,072 117,347 120,847 124,347

Trade payable 32,459 37,195 39,195 41,195

Other Current Liabilities & Short

Term Provisions

34,366 65,888 65,888 65,888

Total Current Liabilities &

Provisions

66,825 103,083 105,083 107,083

Net Current Assets (ex cash) 28,247 14,264 15,764 17,264

Uses of funds 410,522 437,453 472,619 525,870

Book Value per share (INR) 2,353.5 2,518.8 2,763.8 3,139.1

Free cash flow (INR mn)

Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E

Reported Profit 20,715 17,533 24,929 36,897

Add: Depreciation 14,575 15,632 17,893 19,140

Deferred tax 3,557 4,710 5,251 5,283

Others 1,457 35,643 13,279 19,391

Less: Changes in WC 4,738 1,965 1,500 1,500

Operating cash flow 35,566 71,553 59,853 79,210

Less: Capex 36,294 59,199 34,000 17,000

Free Cash Flow (727) 12,353 25,853 62,210

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8 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Cement

Holding - Top 10

Perc. Holding Perc. Holding

Life Insurance Corp. of India 8.38 Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd. 6.09

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co. Ltd. 3.61 Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd. 3.10

HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd. 2.43 Capital Research & Management Co. (World Investors) 1.68

Fidelity Management & Research Co. 1.34 Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt Ltd. 1.08

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 0.97 Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co. Ltd. 0.96

*as per last available data

Insider Trades

Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded

No Data Available

*in last one year

Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price

No Data Available

*in last one year

Additional Data

Directors Data Kumar Mangalam Birla Chairman Rajashree Birla Director

M L Apte Independent Director B V Bhargava Independent Director

R C Bhargava Independent Director Cyril Shroff Independent Director

Shailendra K Jain Director Adesh Gupta Whole Time Director & CFO

K K Maheshwari Managing Director Thomas M Connely Director

Om Prakash Rungta Independent Director N Mohan Raj Independent Director

Auditors - M/s. G. P. Kapadia & Co, M/s. Lodha & Co.

*as per last annual report

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9 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Company Absolute

reco

Relative

reco

Relative

risk

Company Absolute

reco

Relative

reco

Relative

Risk

ACC BUY SP M Ambuja Cement Ltd HOLD SU M

Grasim Industries BUY SO M India Cements HOLD SU H

JK Cement BUY SO M Shree Cements BUY SP M

UltraTech Cement BUY SO M

RATING & INTERPRETATION

ABSOLUTE RATING

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy More than 15%

Hold Between 15% and - 5%

Reduce Less than -5%

RELATIVE RETURNS RATING

Ratings Criteria

Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return

Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return

Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe

within the sector

RELATIVE RISK RATING

Ratings Criteria

Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector

High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model

SECTOR RATING

Ratings Criteria

Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return

Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return

Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return

Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return

Page 10: RESULT UPDATE GRASIM INDUSTRIES - Myirisbreport.myiris.com/ES1/GRAINDUS_20150504.pdf · Grasim Industries 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Company Description Headquartered in Mumbai,

10 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Cement

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.

Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]

Nischal Maheshwari

Head Research

[email protected]

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Cement

ACC, Ambuja Cement Ltd, Grasim Industries, India Cements, JK Cement, Shree Cements, UltraTech Cement

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap

Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe

Rating Distribution* 155 45 8 208 * stocks under review

Market Cap (INR) 151 54 3

Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos

Recent Research

30-Apr-15 Ambuja Cements

Soft volumes, tepid realisations; Result Update

238 Hold

30-Apr-15 Shree Cement

Costs control benefits offset realisation disappointment; Result Update

10,332 Buy

27-Apr-15 UltraTech Cement

Soft volumes a near-term concern; Result Update

2,655 Buy

> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn

Buy Hold Reduce Total

Rating Interpretation

Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period

Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period

Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period

Rating Expected to

-

149

297

446

594

743

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

(IN

R)

One year price chart

2,362

2,849

3,336

3,824

4,311

4,798

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

(IN

R)

Grasim Industries

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11 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Grasim Industries

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12 Edelweiss Securities Limited

Cement

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