RESTRUCTURING OF THE GERMAN POWER MARKET · 2014. 1. 17. · VGB PowerTech e.V. | 14 February 2013...

RESTRUCTURING OF THE GERMAN POWER MARKETNUCLEAR POWER IN GERMANY

KDI International Seminar, Seoul, January 15, 2014

„Nuclear Power Industry Economics and Policy“

Dr.-Ing. L. Mohrbach | VGB PowerTech e.V. | Klinkestr. 37-31, 45136 EssenT: +49 201 8128 221 | F: +49 201 8128 306 | [email protected]

VGB PowerTech e.V. | 14 February 2013 | SLIDE 2

Fossil-fired Power Plants: 306,000 MWNuclear Power Plants: 130,000 MWHydro, Wind, et al. RE: 94,000 MW

Total: ~ 530,000 MW

EU 28: 473 Members in 21 CountriesAustria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, United Kingdom

Remaining Europe: 18 in 4 CountriesNorway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey

Outside Europe: 17 in 11 CountriesArgentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Israel, Japan, Libya, Mongolia, South Africa, USA

Total: 508 in 36 Countries

VGB Represents ~ 530,000 MW Installed Power Capacity

VGB Membership Countries


Member Companies, Contacts


VGB PowerTech, Essen (Germany)

• Exchange of Operating Experience (1800 Experts in 200 Committees)

• Training of Power Plant Personnel:Training Centre KWS (320 Trainers) andNuclear Simulator Centre KSG/GfS (145 Staff)

• Organisation of Research Projects (VGB RESEARCH FOUNDATION)

• Co-operation with European Associations like EURELECTRIC, FORATOM, WANO and others

• Construction Supervision

• Other Services, e.g. Vendor Auditing,

Component Qualification (Spare Parts)- Supply Chain still existing (AREVA: Olkiluoto-3, Angra-3,…)- No Compliance Issues (Strict Separation Operators/ Regulators)

Association of Power Plant Operators (Manufacturers,…)


The Electricity Markethad been

• always Private (today four Major Utilities + 900 Smaller + Industry)

• EU Market Liberalisation 1990ies:- Unbundling of Production and Distribution

- Free Supplier Choice


Power to the People - EU

TWh/a

Wind,Biomass,Solar HydroNuclear

Conventional

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

1200 TWh/a

2010 2035


Requirements for 1200 TWh/a (EU-27):

100 Nuclear Units with 1600 MW, or

160 Lignite Units with 1000 MW, or

266 Hard Coal Units with 600 MW, or

400 CC- Gas Units with 400 MW, or

80.000 Wind Turbines with 5 MW(+ 94% Reserve, e.g. 250 Hard Coal Units)

Options for Future Power Plants


Total Net Power Plant Capacityin EU 27: 793 GW 2007

GW

140120100

80604020

0GER IT UK PL AU RO BEL GR BUL SK LI EE LUX MA

F ES S NL CZ SF PO DK HU EIR SLO LAT CY

Power Plant Capacities in EU 27

160


EU Targets 20 – 20 – 20 in 2020:

20 % Reduction of CO220 % Increase of Energy Efficiency

20 % Share of Renewables

EU Energy Package with three Main Directives

RES: Utilisation of Renewable Energy Sources

CCS: CO2- Capture and Storage

ETS: Emission Trading Scheme for CO2 Certificates

Political Targets EU 2007


German Implementation in the Power Sector

Priviledged Feed-in for Renewables (except Hydro)

Renewable Energy Law „EEG“:

• Feed-in-Tariffs for Renewables (Wind, Solar, Biomass… Cogeneration),Average 14 €ct/kWh (for 20a, slight Decrease), Market Value 3.5 – 5 €ct/kWh

• To be Payed by Electricity Customers (2014: 21.5 G€) (6.24 Ct/kWh)

• Power- Intensive Industries (under International Competition) Exempted(2013: 1691 Companies, 6 G€)

EU Commission 2014: EEG Violates EU Competition Regulations

• Market Premium Model (Stock Price Oriented) instead of Feed-in Tariffs?• „Capacity Markets“ (Additional Subsidies for Conventional Plants)


Source: VGB Data Base

Total capacity of projected or announced ⃰ ) new projects since 2007 in Europe

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Gas Oil Hard Coal Lignite and Peat Biomass Nuclear Hydro Wind Other Renewables

GW

Announced Capacity Additions Since 2007


and then . . .

Fukushima


And then: Fukushima

Chancellor Merkel:

New Energy Policy „Energiewende“ (Energy Turnaround):

• Energy Saving

• Decarbonisation

• Decentralisation

and…

• Abandoning Nuclear (30% of Production) until 2023

• „Fukushima has shown that the Residual Risk of Nuclear is not onlyTheoretical…“


Results of Probabilistic Safety Analyses (PSA)


Left(former GDR party, in Parliament since 1990)8.6%

Greens

(in Parliament since 1983)8.4%

Social Democrats

Since 1949

25.7%

Christian Democrats

Since 1949

41.5%Free Democrats(Liberals)

Since 1949

4.8%

Socialistic

Pro-nuclear until Fukushima

Market Oriented

Source: Wössner, Deutsches Atomforum

Political Spectrum in Germany


2011 2020 2050

Greenhouse Gas EmissionsCompared to Base 1990 -26.4% -40% 2030

-55%2040-70%

2050-80 to 95%

Efficiency

Primary EnergyConsumption (Base 2008)

-6% -20% -50%

Gross ElectricityConsumption (Base 2008)

-2.1% -10% -25%

Transport

Final Energy Consumption(Compared to Base 2005)

-0,5% -10% -40%

Renewables

Share in Gross ElectricityConsumption

20.3% 35%+ 203050%+

204065%+

205080%+

Share in Gross Final EnergyConsumption

12.1% 18% 203030%

204045%

205060%

„Energiewende“ Targets (Excerpt), plus …


Unit Start Shutdown

1 Biblis A 1975

Energie-Wende

2007

20112007

2 Neckarwestheim 1 19763 Biblis B 19774 Brunsbüttel 19775 Isar 1 19796 Unterweser 19797 Philippsburg 1 19808 Krümmel 19849 Grafenrheinfeld 1982 2015

10 Gundremmingen B 1984 201711 Philippsburg 2 1985 201912 Grohnde 1985

202113 Gundremmingen C 198514 Brokdorf 198615 Isar 2 1988

202216 Emsland 198817 Neckarwestheim 1 1989

Source: Welt Kompakt / AFP

1

5

7

3

11

10 1315

9

12

16

6

14

8

4

… Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants


Nuclear Facilities in/out of Operation

Source: Wössner, Deutsches Atomforum

In OperationShut Down 2011

Shut Down


Lignite162 TWh

27%

Hard Coal124 TWh

21%

Nuclear97 TWh

16% Gas/Oil 73 TWh12%

Renewables147 TWh

24%

Hydro21 TWh 3%

Wind50 TWh 8%

Biomass43 TWh 7%

PV28 TWh 4%

Waste5 TWh 1%

Power Production 2013

Total (+ 2.1%) : 603 TWh = 570 TWh Domestic + 33 TWh ExportSource: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen, BDEW


Energy Mix for Power Generation

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Gas

Nuclear

Lignite

Hydro, Wind, PV

Biomass

Others

Hard Coal

PJ

Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen, BDEW


System Stability - Generation & Grid Interaction

What about System Stability?

determined by

• Ratio between Intermitting and Dispatchable Generation

• Availability of Grid Control Instruments as Inertia Given by big Masses (= Turbines and Generators) Load Flexibility Following the Demand Storage Capacities Bridging the Gap Demand – Supply and Back-up Power Providing Inertia and Capacity in Calm/Dark


Residual Load = Total Demand - Renewables Feed‐In

Source: EURELECTRIC/ VGB Study “Power Choices”

2010 Anticipated 2020

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Total Storage Capacity(Pumped Hydro)

Total Demand PV HydroGWResidual Load

OffshoreWind Cogeneration


If Renewable Feed-in is larger than Demand (Windy + Sunny, 60 GW):

• All Conventional Power Plants Stopped

• Surplus Export (2013: 33 TWh = 5,5%)

• Low or Negative Prices !

If Renewable Feed-in is near Zero (Calm + Dark):

• All Conventional Power Plants Needed (60 – 80 GW)

Synergy is only about 6% (some Wind somewhere…)

Two Separate Power Supply Systems in Parallel

Frame Conditions for Grid Operators


Source: RWE, VGB

Load Ramp Capacities of Large Power Plants

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

00 5 10 15 20 25 30

MW

Nuclear

Existing Coal

New Coal

New Combined Cycle Gas


Reliability Consequences

What about Security of Supply?

determined by

• Grid Availability

• Extraordinary Increase of Grid Management Measures

• Wind in the North, Sun in the South


Nuclear

Lignite

Hard Coal

Hydro

Gas

Wind (Onshore)

Oil

Pumped Storage

Photovoltaics

Full Load Hours per Year (Example Germany 2008)


Source: RWE

2008 2030

Capacity (MW)

-1,000 9,0000 3,000 6,000

Capacity (MW)

-1,000 15,0000 5,000 10,000

Grid Bottlenecks !

!

!

!

OffshoreWind

ConventionalNew-Builds

NuclearShut-Down

Regional Imbalance between Supply and Demand


Grid Extensions to Transport Wind Energy from North to South

3500 km of 380 KVfor Wind

from NorthTo South

Acceptance?(Licensing > 10a)

+Low Voltage Grid:

150.000 kmfor Solar + BiomassFeed-In

(¼ of Infrastructure)


Cost Consequences

What about CO2?

determined by

• Increasing Renewables

• Shutting Down Nuclear

• Lignite Replacing Gas


Costs for Avoiding CO2 Emissions

60 – 70 60 – 80

80 – 110

220 – 270

CoalRe-

powering

WindOn-

shore

Biomass PV

Source: IER Stuttgart, VGB

250

200

150

100

50

0

37

HydroCoalCCS

€ / t CO2

Certificates: 5 – 10 € / t CO2

NewNuclear

NuclearLife-time

Exten-sion

15 – 2012

- (5-10)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Target 2020: Minus 20% I 2007Minus 40 % I 1990

Source: UN Millenium Goals Indicators, AG Energiebilanzenmdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/SeriesDetail.aspx?srid=751&crid=

CO2 Emissions per Capita

Mg/a

„Wallfall Profits“

Financial Crisis


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Industry

Non-Energy-IntensiveIndustryBasic Materials Industry

Source: Carbon Leakage: Ein schleichender Prozeß, (a sneaky process), Deutsche Bank Research, Dec. 18, 2013

„Carbon Leakage“: Exporting Energy-Intensive Industries

Net Assets of German Industry

Energy- Intensive Industries Leave the Country,(thus improving National Carbon Balance)

%


Cost Consequences

What about Costs?

determined by

• Production Costs (Share of Renewables)

• Distribution Costs

• Taxes etc… (now 52% for Households)


OECD / IEA Report „Levelised Cost of Electricity“Survey EUROPE by Eurelectric/VGB:

Ultra Wind Pumped PVHard Critical Onshore Run-of ThermalCoal w. CCS River

Nuclear Lignite Gas Offshore Hydro SolarCCGT close far

Production Costs of Electricity

100

50

0

€ct/kWh

Interest Rate 5%


Distortion of Merit Order

Classic Market Market with Priviledged Renewables

Reduced Operating Hours,Impairing Economics

DemandDemand

Nuclear OilGas Hard CoalLignite GW

€/ct/kWh





DemandDemand

GW GWNuclear OilGas Hard CoalLignite

€/ct/kWh €/ct/kWh





DemandDemand

GW GW

Subsidiesfor

Renewables

Nuclear OilGas Hard CoalLignite

€/ct/kWh €/ct/kWh


Electricity Prices for Households in Europe

Source: EUROSTAT, BDEW

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

323028262422201816141210

€ Cent / kWh

Germany

Italy

Spain

France

AustriaNLUK


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Typical Household Electricity Price (8500 kWh/a)

Inflation

1.72 %/a

8.23 %/a

12.71 %/a 2006

€ Cent/ kWh

Development of Electricity Prices

Source: Own Calculations, Statistical Federal Agency


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Typical Household Electricity Price (8500 kWh/a)

Inflation

1.72 %/a

8.23 %/a

12.71 %/a 2006

€ Cent/ kWh Since Fukushima:Costs Rise 1% per Month

Development of Electricity Prices

Source: Own Calculations, Statistical Federal Agency


Decommissioning and Dismantling

What to do with Shut-down Plants?

determined by

• Decommissioning Licensing (4 – 5 Years)

• Fuel: Dry Cask Storage on Site (40 Years)


Dismantling Material Mass Flows of a Typical Nuclear Power Plant Unit

Source: VGB, Reference Study Decommissioning, Deutsches Atomforum

For FreeRecyclingExcept600 Mg

Masses from Controlled Area156.500 Mg

ConventionalRecycling

Waste Dump

Final Disposal

Final Disposal

Concrete etc.ComponentsRadioactive Waste(Concrete)

Normal RecyclingNormal Disposal

Radioactive Waste(Components)Radioactive Waste(Secondary, e.g. fromDecontamination)

Final Disposal600 Mg

500 Mg

3000 Mg

700 Mg

9800 Mg143.000

Mg

13.500 Mg


Site Geological Formation

Current Status

Schacht Konrad Former iron ore mine

Licensed after around 30 years as final repository (around 303.000 m3) for LMW; after further significant delay commissioning now planned not before 2021; project costs now around 2.2 GEUR. Until then Waste from public sources collected in state

facilities and at research centers.

Waste from utilities stored in interim on-site storage facilities.

Pilot Mine Gorleben Untouched salt dome for HAW High-Active-Waste (spent fuel), deposition depth 850m

In 1960 political consensus to use salt as host rock for HAW, selected from 140 salt domes.

Since 1979 in scientific exploration, now stopped.

2013: New site selection process (next 20 years), including Gorleben (already 1.6 GEUR invested)

Repository Projects

Source: VGB Reference Study Decommissioning, Deutsches Atomforum


Structure of a Repository for Radioactive Waste in a Salt Dome

Non-Permeable Layers

Salt dome

Repository Packages(Casks)Depth approx. 800 m

Depth Approx. 1,100 m

Repository Packages (Canisters)

Tunnel

Bore holes

Final Repository


What about the Others?

determined by

• Nuclear Policies after Fukushima

• All Plants have Passed the EU Stress Tests


Shutdown of Operating Plants

Source: VGB, 2012

BYUAE TRVN SA JO BD

AR BR CN SE

ZA

BG CZ FI GB HR HU IN IR KR

MX PK RO

RU

SK TW UA US

CA FR LT NL

CH JP

BE ES

IT

New Projects

GER

Newcomer Countries

Unmodified NuclearDevelopment

New Build Moratorium

Future not yet Defined

Fixed Residual Operation Time

Abandoning of Re-introduction

Consequences Country

Nuclear Policies after Fukushima


Thank You for Your Attention

Dr.- Ing. L. MohrbachVGB PowerTech e.V.Klinkestrasse 27-31

D-45136 EssenGermany

[email protected].: xx49 201 8128 221Fax: xx49 201 8128 306

www.vgb.org

RESTRUCTURING OF THE GERMAN POWER MARKET · 2014. 1. 17. · VGB PowerTech e.V. | 14 February 2013...

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