RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLIONRESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLION FORECAST IS FOR...

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www.spotsndots.com Subscriptions: $350 per year. This publication cannot be distributed beyond the office of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or [email protected] Copyright 2017. The Daily News of TV Sales Monday, March 6, 2017 RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLION FORECAST IS FOR 4.3% GROWTH THIS YEAR Although just about every segment of the restaurant business is having problems keeping customer visits up, the National Restaurant Association predicts its industry’s sales will grow by 4.3% this year to $799 billion. The growth will come from price inflation to some degree (even in the face lower food prices at supermarkets)—but still, after adjusting for that inflation, the NRA predicts a 1.7% increase that would be slightly better than the 1.5% increase expected to become the final number for 2016 once the total is finalized. Most of the growth will come from limited-service options, as many customers continue to shift their restaurant business towards quicker, more convenient options. Sales at quick-serve restaurants are expected to grow by 2.5% adjusted for inflation, while full-service establishments are only projected to grow by 1.1%. The growth will vary by region, according to the NRA. Not surprisingly, the Southeast and West which have been adding population, will produce the biggest year-to-year growth while the Midwest will see the lowest growth. Nation’s Restaurant News notes the industry has been growing at a steady pace since recovering from the recession that produced an actual decline in restaurant sales in 2009, but the growth rate has been slowing down. “The fact remains that growth rates are definitely more moderate than the pre-recessionary period,” the restaurant association’s SVP for research said, “That’s the environment we see in the years ahead.” The question that must be asked, however, is if the projection is too optimistic. The NRA says some of the growth will come from new options and locations, but as we’re reported recently a census done by the NPD Group found the number of restaurants in operation last fall was actually 2% lower than had been in business a year prior, with a shift from independent restaurants to units of chains (many of them owned by local franchisees or franchise groups) one of the visible trends. Also, total restaurant visits were down last year, with continuing thought that deflation in many food items at supermarkets has been in sharp contrast to price increases at restaurants, making food-at-home a more attractive option to budget-conscious diners. One of the points of optimism for the NRA is growth in options beyond traditional dine-in experiences, including take-out, to go, and delivery formats. “It’s important to note that restaurants are in a better situation than they were a few years ago,” NRA SVP Hudson Riehle said. “The fact is a lot of growth in the industry has not really come from more people going through the doors.” ADVERTISER NEWS hhgregg has already started liquidation sales at 88 stores after announcing plans to close about 40% of its total store roster. As we have already reported, the chain, after a very poor holiday season in which its strategy had been to avoid competing on price, recently hired an investment banking firm to explore strategic alternatives and there have already been rumors of a bankruptcy in the near future……Kroger’s streak of 52 quarters in which it had reported positive same-store sales came to an end in the fiscal quarter that ended on 1/28 when, excluding fuel, same-store sales were down 0.7%. After a year that included some acquisitions, however, total sales were up 5.5%, and the company also claims it grew market share during the past year……After merging with SABMiller, Anheuser-Busch InBev brews seven of the top ten beers in the world, but sagging sales in many regions led to a disappointing earnings result for the combined company. In North America, volume was down 1.6% last year as many consumers shifted to craft beers, and Bud Light, the nation’s top-selling beer, continued its downward trend……Stage Stores joined other department store groups in announcing disappointing results for the November-to-January period. Comparable sales were down 8.5%, completing a fiscal year with comps down 8.8%, even after 37 stores were closed with no others opened. Stage operates 798 stores in 38 states using the Bealls, Goody’s, Palais Royal, Peebles, and Stage banners, with stores predominately located in smaller towns……Costco, the second-largest retailer in the country behind just Walmart, reported same store sales up 3%, but also announced an increase of $5 in membership fees to $60. The Wall Street Journal says that’s the real profit-generator for the company, which last raised the cost of membership in 2011. In the latest quarter, Costco said foot traffic was up 2% with the average sale up 1%......Barnes & Noble remains in a tough retail segment and has become quite used to negative comps— in its latest fiscal quarter, same-store sales dropped 8.3% and it now projects the current fiscal year will end in April with a 7% decline……Could a data plan become a basis of differentiation in the automotive business? Chevrolet has just announced it will offer unlimited data for $20 a month to all models equipped with an OnStar 4G wi-fi hot spot. Previously it had been charging $40 a month for 10 gigabytes. “We have contractors bidding for jobs in their Silverados, families streaming movies in their Suburbans and Malibus, and everyone tapping into the cloud for music,” the President of GM North America said.

Transcript of RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLIONRESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLION FORECAST IS FOR...

Page 1: RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLIONRESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLION FORECAST IS FOR 4.3% GROWTH THIS YEAR Although just about every segment of the restaurant business

www.SpotsnDots.com PAGE 1

www.spotsndots.comSubscriptions: $350 per year.

This publication cannot bedistributed beyond the office

of the actual subscriber. Need us? 888-884-2630 or

[email protected] Copyright 2017.The Daily News of TV Sales Monday, March 6, 2017

RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLIONFORECAST IS FOR 4.3% GROWTH THIS YEAR Although just about every segment of the restaurant business is having problems keeping customer visits up, the National Restaurant Association predicts its industry’s sales will grow by 4.3% this year to $799 billion. The growth will come from price inflation to some degree (even in the face lower food prices at supermarkets)—but still, after adjusting for that inflation, the NRA predicts a 1.7% increase that would be slightly better than the 1.5% increase expected to become the final number for 2016 once the total is finalized. Most of the growth will come from limited-service options, as many customers continue to shift their restaurant business towards quicker, more convenient options. Sales at quick-serve restaurants are expected to grow by 2.5% adjusted for inflation, while full-service establishments are only projected to grow by 1.1%. The growth will vary by region, according to the NRA. Not surprisingly, the Southeast and West which have been adding population, will produce the biggest year-to-year growth while the Midwest will see the lowest growth. Nation’s Restaurant News notes the industry has been growing at a steady pace since recovering from the recession that produced an actual decline in restaurant sales in 2009, but the growth rate has been slowing down. “The fact remains that growth rates are definitely more moderate than the pre-recessionary period,” the restaurant association’s SVP for research said, “That’s the environment we see in the years ahead.” The question that must be asked, however, is if the projection is too optimistic. The NRA says some of the growth will come from new options and locations, but as we’re reported recently a census done by the NPD Group found the number of restaurants in operation last fall was actually 2% lower than had been in business a year prior, with a shift from independent restaurants to units of chains (many of them owned by local franchisees or franchise groups) one of the visible trends. Also, total restaurant visits were down last year, with continuing thought that deflation in many food items at supermarkets has been in sharp contrast to price increases at restaurants, making food-at-home a more attractive option to budget-conscious diners. One of the points of optimism for the NRA is growth in options beyond traditional dine-in experiences, including take-out, to go, and delivery formats. “It’s important to note that restaurants are in a better situation than they were a few years ago,” NRA SVP Hudson Riehle said. “The fact is a lot of growth in the industry has not really come from more people going through the doors.”

ADVERTISER NEWS hhgregg has already started liquidation sales at 88 stores after announcing plans to close about 40% of its total store roster. As we have already reported, the chain, after a very poor holiday season in which its strategy had been to avoid competing on price, recently hired an investment banking firm to explore strategic alternatives and there have already been rumors of a bankruptcy in the near future……Kroger’s streak of 52 quarters in which it had reported positive same-store sales came

to an end in the fiscal quarter that ended on 1/28 when, excluding fuel, same-store sales were down 0.7%. After a year that included some acquisitions, however, total sales were up 5.5%, and the company also claims it grew market share during the past year……After merging with SABMiller, Anheuser-Busch InBev brews seven of the top ten beers in the world, but sagging sales

in many regions led to a disappointing earnings result for the combined company. In North America, volume was down 1.6% last year as many consumers shifted to craft beers, and Bud Light, the nation’s top-selling beer, continued its downward trend……Stage Stores joined other department store groups in announcing disappointing results for the November-to-January period. Comparable sales were down 8.5%, completing a fiscal year with comps down 8.8%, even after 37 stores were closed with no others opened. Stage operates 798 stores in 38 states using the Bealls, Goody’s, Palais Royal, Peebles, and Stage banners, with stores predominately located in smaller towns……Costco, the second-largest retailer in the country behind just Walmart, reported same store sales up 3%, but also announced an increase of $5 in membership fees to $60. The Wall Street Journal says that’s the real profit-generator for the company, which last raised the cost of membership in 2011. In the latest quarter, Costco said foot traffic was up 2% with the average sale up 1%......Barnes & Noble remains in a tough retail segment and has become quite used to negative comps—in its latest fiscal quarter, same-store sales dropped 8.3% and it now projects the current fiscal year will end in April with a 7% decline……Could a data plan become a basis of differentiation in the automotive business? Chevrolet has just announced it will offer unlimited data for $20 a month to all models equipped with an OnStar 4G wi-fi hot spot. Previously it had been charging $40 a month for 10 gigabytes. “We have contractors bidding for jobs in their Silverados, families streaming movies in their Suburbans and Malibus, and everyone tapping into the cloud for music,” the President of GM North America said.

Page 2: RESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLIONRESTAURANTS STUMBLE TOWARDS $800 BILLION FORECAST IS FOR 4.3% GROWTH THIS YEAR Although just about every segment of the restaurant business

PAGE 2 The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com

NETWORK NEWS Arnold Schwarzenegger has made it clear he won’t return as host of any future Celebrity Apprentice. The former California Governor and film star cited the show’s “baggage” as one reason for his decision. Schwarzenegger substituted for now-President Donald Trump in the current season only to find out later that Trump was still an executive producer. This season of Celebrity Apprentice has struggled to find viewers, averaging a 1.3 18-49 Nielsen rating for the season....ABC’s Doomsday has added Clair Holt (Aquarius) as the lead. The pilot follows a group of creative minds from science and entertainment tasked with dreaming up man-made disasters in the wake of 9/11. Holt will play the newest member of the Doomsday project, considered the best cyber security analyst in the country. She had a recurring role on The CW’s The Vampire Diaries and its spinoff The Originals……In other news from ABC, producers of the drama pilot Salamander have cast Allison Miller (Incorporated) as the lead. The pilot centers on a brilliant but misanthropic engineer who recruits a skeptical Homeland Security agent to help him track a mysterious bank robber. Daniella Alsonso (Animal Kingdom) will play the lead in another ABC drama pilot. Alonso will play Detective Alex De La Reina in Las Reinas centering on a crime family in Miami……. The actress that plays Nicole on NBC’s Days of our Lives is leaving the soap after nearly 20 years. Adrianne Zucker told Soap Opera Digest “I know there are a thousand girls who would take my job in a second. For me, it’s time to go.”.…CBS has casting news as well with the announcement that British Actress Alice Eve has been selected to play the lead in Hannah Royce’s Questionable Choices. The single-camera comedy pilot revolves around the title character (Eve) who has made some interesting choices in her life, like having three different kids with three different men. The comedy comes from Matt Tarses (Mad Love) and Aaron Kaplan’s Kapital Entertainment……The CW’s DC drama pilot Black Lightning has tapped Nafessa Williams (Code Black) and China Anne McClain (House of Payne) to star opposite Cress Williams. In the DC comics, Anissa (Williams) and Jennifer (McClain) join their father Black Lightning (Cress Williams) as superheroes, taking the names Thunder and Lightning……Continuing its recent trend of rebooting primetime game-shows, ABC has announced a revival of Battle of the Network Stars. The show was a television classic in the 70’s and 80’s and pitted teams of TV stars against one another in athletic competitions……Alexander Siddig has landed a major role in the Fox primetime series Gotham. The former Game of Thrones cast member will play the semi-immortal leader of the League of Assassins.

ACCOUNT ACTIONS HP is consolidating its media account with Omnicom’s PHD, which already handles the traditional media for the client and will now get the digital media assignment away from WPP’s Essence unit. Advertising Age reports the account spends most of its budget, about 65% of an estimated $95 million in 2015, on digital media.

AVAILS Local Sales Manager: KXLT TV (FOX), Rochester, MN seeks a strong leader in sales management for our multi-platform sales team. This position includes a base salary plus commission AND a bonus opportunity to reward your success. Are you respected as a great motivator of people? Driven to over deliver? As the LSM at KXLT, you will do all of this and more while leading a team of experienced, professional producers. If you’re ready to join an award winning station, send your cover letter, resume and references to: [email protected]. EOE.

E.W. Scripps is seeking a qualified, dynamic, driven leader to join our market leading team. We are currently seeking a high-energy, multi-tasking Local Sales Manager to join our sales team at KMGH-TV in Denver. The LSM is responsible for leading and motivating the local sales team, and for developing new business for station utilizing and maximizing all station platforms including but not limited to broadcast, digital and mobile Minimum 3-5

years media sales experience, management experience strongly preferred. Apply at www.scripps.com. EOE Do you dream of a well-balanced professional and personal life? Are you interested in living in a community that offers an abundance of fresh air where you can hike, bike, boat and hunt…right outside your doorstep? KTVO ABC and CBS is located in Kirksville MO, serving the Kirksville MO\Ottumwa IA market, has an opening for a Sales Manager. We’re looking for someone who is motivated to learn and grow in this position. Get more info or apply now at: www.sbgi.net, look for job #7626. EEO/Drug Free KSLA News12, a Raycom-owned CBS and Bounce affiliate serving the Shreveport/Bossier City market in Northwest Louisiana, is looking for a dynamic General Sales Manager to join the best sales team in the ArkLaTex. Candidate must be an innovative leader who knows how to maximize revenue on our CBS and Bounce stations and digital platforms. This individual will have experience coaching, training and leading team members to consistently growing market share and new revenue. Please CLICK HERE to apply, and send a cover letter, resume and references. No calls please. EOE-M/F/D/V WKMG-TV/News 6 Getting Results is seeking a Research Director to join the Graham Media Group owned CBS Affiliate in Orlando, FL. The Research/Marketing Director will work with WKMG departments and play a key leadership role in utilizing research to grow and develop ideas for sales, news, marketing and promotions. Join a team in a Top 20 Market that has consistent population growth, vibrant communities and a growing economy! CLICK HERE for more info or to apply now. EOE.

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3/6/2017

FunnyTweets.com

Did you know that you can get kicked out of a gym

for using a laser to point out areas people should

work on?

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The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com PAGE 3

ECONOMIC NEWS The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey rose to 114.8 last week, up from 111.6 at the end of January. The Present Situation aspect of the survey rose to 133.4 and the Expectation Index (How consumers feel they will be six months from now) rose from 99.3 to 102.4. The overall index is now at a 15-year high. “Consumers expect the economy to continue improving,” the Conference Board’s Director of Economic Indicators commented……New unemployment claims fell to just 223,000 for the week of 2/20, completing a full two years below the 300,000 mark that is considered to be the threshold of a strong labor market. The four-week moving average fell to 234,250, the lowest number since April, 1973. BUSINESS BYTES The banking business made a record profit last year according to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, which says net income in the industry was $171 billion, up about 4.9% in a year. The FDIC also indicated only 4.2% of banks were not profitable, the lowest percentage since 1995. American Banker’s Index of Banking Activity was slightly lower for January, which is seen as a seasonal pullback, although scores were unusually low in some components including consumer loan applications and consumer loan approvals. AB adds, however, “the data reveal an industry continuing to reap the benefits of pricing power on new loans, an effect that bodes well assuming spring brings its customary bounce”…..The average loan for a new vehicle reached a record $30,621 (up 3.6%) in the fourth quarter according to Experian data while the average loan for a used vehicle grew by 2.5% to $19,329. To keep payments at a reasonable monthly level, however, the length of loans has extended once again, with 32.1% of new-vehicle loans now in the 73 to 84 months grouping and that same 6-7 year loan now accounting for 18% of used-vehicle deals. Leases in the fourth quarter were up very slightly to 28.94% of all deals from 28.87% last year and the average lease payment is now $414 (about $92 monthly less than the average new vehicle monthly payment). A McDONALD’S ACQUISITION? Don’t look for McDonald’s to make a major acquisition (like Burger King’s parent buying Popeye’s) in the near future, according to Nation’s Restaurant News, which says there’s a better chance Mickey D’s could use some of its cash to make a technology or intellectual property purchase that it could use to increase business at its current restaurants. CEO Steve Easterbrook touched on the subject last week, saying, “If we were to see an acquisition opportunity where we could spread across 36,000 restaurants quickly, that is the classic way of bringing the greatest benefit to the most people in a short time. All we’re saying is that we’re curious. We’re open-minded.” About 15 years ago, McDonald’s did pursue expansion by buying or investing in other chains, including short-lived ownership of Boston Market and investing in the concept that grew into Chipotle Mexican Grill.

NBC INVESTS IN SNAPCHAT Why has NBCUniversal invested $500M in Snapchat? It’s part of the company’s ambitious investment in digital media, says CNBC. NBC has spent about $1.5 billion on digital assets in the past 18 months, including $400 million in Buzzfeed and $200 million in Vox. The company recently acquired SportsEngine, a digital business for youths involved in local team sports. According to CNBC, the partnership offers NBCUniversal an opportunity to create new programming using its content and brands

to reach millennials, which traditional media companies and advertisers have found increasingly hard to reach on linear television.

THIS AND THAT Now that Google has plans to launch YouTube TV this spring, Apple executives are reving up their ‘TV’ plans, even though we’re not sure what those plans are. Apple is talking to Hollywood TV and film producers about joining the company,

and they’re not just looking to buy TV shows. Apple is said to be looking to produce original TV programming. “They are preparing something big,” a source told The New York Post last week.... It’s day four of the standoff between Hearst and DISH TV. Hearst blacked out DISH customers’ access to its local channels in 26 markets across 30 states last Thursday night....Total 2016 U.S. ad dollars grew at the fastest pace in 12 years, increasing 5%; 6.7% when political and Olympic spending are included. The strong Q4 growth rate caused Pivotal Research Group Senior Analyst Brian Wieser to up his 2017 advertising forecast to 2.5% growth this year, up from 2.0%. Wieser says total TV ad dollars were up 6.5% in 2016 with national up 2.6% on a normalized basis, or 4.5% including Olympics. Local TV fell slightly (-0.8%) but rose 10.8% including political advertising. Radio and Outdoor were flat in Q4. Direct mail dollars fell by 5%.

P&G CHIEF LOOKING FOR BETTER ROI P&G Chief Brand Officer Marc Pritchard made headlines at the ANA Media Masters conference in Orlando by announcing that the ‘days of chasing shiny objects in the name of becoming (a) first mover are over, and it’s time to hold digital advertising accountable.’ Forbes says what’s behind Pritchard’s speech is the anemic 2% growth among U.S. consumer companies, despite the fact that marketers spend $200 billion on advertising in the U.S. alone. Most of this underperformance can be traced to the low quality of digital media supply chain. Instead of engaging and persuasion, advertising bombards consumers with thousands of often irrelevant ads a day, subjecting them to endless ad load times, pop-ups, overpopulating screens and feeds which then result in ad blockers growing 40% annually. Prichard announced a four part plan to clean up the media supply chain during 2017. Read it HERE. Pritchard believes that cleaning up the ecosystem from complexity and making it more transparent has one simple objective – better work and better ROI. “This is essential.... Better ads and improved user experience are crucial.”

3/6/2017

Seth Meyers

Taco Bell has created a hybrid of its Quesalupas and Doritos Locos Tacos,

called the Doritos Quesalupa Crunch. Of course, if you

can say that, you’re probably not drunk enough to eat it.