1.2 Responses to high and low fertilityExplain dependence and ageing ratiosExamine the impacts of youthful and ageing populations.Evaluate examples of a pro natalist and anti natalist policy.

Key TermsTerm Definition

Dependency ratio

This is the ratio of the number of people under 15 and over 64 years to those between 15 and 64 years of age.

Ageing population

This is where there is a rise in the median age of a population. It usually occurs when fertility decline is coupled with life expectancy increase.

Pro natalist policy

This is a population policy that aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives.

Anti natalist policy

This is a population policy designed to limit fertility through the use of both incentives and deterrents.

Overpopulation When the population is greater than the resources available in the country. E.g. India, China, Bangladesh

Underpopulation When the population is not big enough to fully utilise the economic potential of a country. E.g. Canada, Australia

Optimum Population

When population and resources are perfectly matched. In reality this never really happens.

Non-economically active popn (Children (0-16 yrs) + Elderly (65 +))

Dependency ratio =

Economically active popn (Those of working age (17-64 yrs))

Age group Population total

0-16 964,196

17-64 1,996,207

65 + 65,714

Can you work out Oman’ dependency ratio?

Dependency Ratios

The causes of an ageing population

Rapidly reducing birth rates.

Increasing life expectancies

Reduced death rate

Case Study: Ageing in JapanFACT FILE CAUSES OF THE PROBLEM 26% of the population are over 65.

By 2055 40% of the population will be over 65.

Only 52% of the population are 16 – 65.

Population is expected to have decreased by 20% before 2055.

Low fertility rate of 1.37 due to high employment for women, later marriages and small living spaces in urban areas.

Longer life expectancy (83) due to excellent medicine and health care, good diet and a high quality of life.

Case Study: Ageing in JapanIMPACTS MANAGEMENT

A shrinking population (by 20% before 2055)

Health care and nursing home costs are increasing. They are already 12% of Japan’s GDP.

Falling working population meants that Japan’s current position as the world’s 3rd largest economy would be hard to maintain.

Workforce is predicted to drop by 15% in the next 15 years.

Consumption taxes doubled from 5% to 10%, allowing Japan to fund the increasing pension costs .

The “New Angel Plan” introduced in 2000 was designed to increase the birth rate by providing free child care and improving working hours for mothers.

Doing its part to boost the birth rate, the Bandai Corp has offered each employee around $10,000 for every baby they had after their first child.

Relaxing immigration laws to allow young working people to move into Japan to help increase the working population.

Case Study – The United Kingdom When pensions were introduced in the early 1900s there were 22 people of

working age in Britain for every retired person. In 2024 there will be less than three.

The cost of state pensions is increasing rapidly and the cost of nursing homes and health care is also being pushed up.

On the plus side, the elderly population are spending more money than ever, boosting the economy in some areas.

The UK are increasing their retirement age and also cutting pensions.

Most people view ageing populations with negative connotations but there are some positives. The ‘Grey Economy’ – Many firms such as holiday

companies and healthcare providers are cashing in on the ageing population as an important market.

Granny culture – With childcare becoming increasingly expensive, grandparents are looking after children more which can boost the economy by allowing more women in the workplace.

Older employees – many employers favour an older workforce due to reliability and experience.

Evaluating – an ageing world – an advantage or disadvantage?

The causes of an youthful population

Very high birth and fertility rates

Low life expectancies

Fairly high death rates

Case Study: Youthfulness in UgandaFACT FILE CAUSES OF THE PROBLEM In 2010, 50% of the population were

under 15 years old.

In 2010, there were only 3% of the population over 65.

High birth rate of 48/1000.

High fertility rate of 7 children per female on average.

Low life expectancy of just 52 years old.

Case Study: Youthfulness in UgandaIMPACTS

Pressure on health services – current health infrastructure is insufficient to deal with problems and so significant spending required.

Increased demand for education – target from the Millenium Development Goals was to achieve universal primary education by 2003 but they have failed to meet this.

Labour force too large – there are not enough opportunities in the formal employment sector meaning increased unemployment, informal work and probably crime.

Housing pressures – the population momentum of a youthful population is huge and will lead to overpopulation, overcrowding, growth of slums etc…

Demand on resources such as water, forests and food.

POPULATION POLICIESPopulation policies are measures taken by a government to influence the way a population is changing.

Pro Natalist policies aim to increase birth rates and total fertility rates. Why?

Anti Natalist policies aim reduce birth rates and total fertility rates. Why?

PRO NATALIST SINGAPOREBACKGROUND FEATURES OF THE POLICY Singapore is a country of 5 million. The

government has long been concerned that they are underpopulated.

36% of the population are foreign nationals.

It has one of the lowest total fertility rates in the world at 1.1.

Increased maternity leave by 50% and will cover the costs for the first four children.

Increased child benefits. $1000 a year for the first 6 years for up to four children.

Government sponsored dating groups to encourage earlier marriages.

STRENGTHS OF THE POLICY WEAKNESSES OF THE POLICY Population is projected to rise to 5.4

million by 2025.

Initial rise in Total Fertility rate from 1.1 to 1.8 in the years immediately following the introduction of the policy in 2000.

Monetary incentives often fail in changing social mind sets.

After initial rises, the TFR is now falling again.

Some companies are not on board with increases in maternity leave.

PRO NATALIST SINGAPORE

ONE CHILD POLICY CHINABACKGROUND FEATURES OF THE POLICY China population 1.4 billion. Highest

population in the world.

Serious overpopulation problems. Environmental problems (air and water quality are worst in world)

Resource imbalance – China has resorted to land-grabbing in Africa.

1979 introduced and aimed to reduce the population to 700 million (optimum) over a 100 year period.

Included fines, no education for second child, forced abortions, forced sterilisations and loss of jobs.

Also promoted the use of contraception and later marriages.

STRENGTHS OF THE POLICY WEAKNESSES OF THE POLICY Total Fertility rate dropped from 6 – 1.7.

Growth rate has slowed from 2.61% in 1970 to 0.65% in 2010.

Birth rate has dropped from 45/1000 to 13/1000.

250 million births have been prevented.

Human rights abuses.

Female infanticide

Gender imbalance (117:100)

Many children abandoned for adoption.

Ageing population/ increased elderly dependency ratio.

Little emperor syndrome (spoiled only children)

Policy open to bribery from richer families.

ONE CHILD POLICY CHINA

In January 2016, the one child policy ended and was replaced by the 2 child policy.

Other population policies

PRO NATALIST

ANTI NATALIST

Romania FranceSwedenSingaporeEstonia

IndiaChinaIranBangladesh