Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate … · 2015. 11....

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Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers Maria Sand Terje K. Berntsen, Knut von Salzen, Mark G. Flanner, Joakim Langner, and David G. Victor [email protected]

Transcript of Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate … · 2015. 11....

  • Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived

    climate forcers

    Maria Sand Terje K. Berntsen, Knut von Salzen, Mark G. Flanner,

    Joakim Langner, and David G. Victor

    [email protected]

  • Arc0chaze

  • WhatareSLCFs?

    Gasesandpar0clesthathaveanatmosphericlife0meofafewdaystoadecade.

    BLACKCARBON Sootproducedfromcombu0onsources.Absorbssolarradia0on.CO-EMITTEDPOLLUTANTS ~Sulfurdioxide,organiccarboncomponds.ScaFersolarradia0on.OZONE Troposphericozone,airpollutant,harmful.Greenhousegas.

    METHANE OtherreportJ

  • ∆T>0

    ∆T<0 ∆T>0 ∆T>0∆T>0

    dzdθ

    The direct effect The indirect effect

    The ‘semi-direct’ effect

    The snow/ice-forcing effect

    SW

    LW

  • GlobaltrendsinSLCFsemissions

    AMAPBC&O3report,2015

    BC OC SO2

    NOx nmVOC

    Griddedemissions1850-2000Lamarqueetal.(2010).

  • Goal:AssesstheimpactonArc0cclimateofSLCFemissionsfromdifferentregionsandsectors

    Ø  Challengingtaskbecauseofsmalld(climate)signalandlargeuncertain0es,especiallyduetocloudindirecteffects

  • Problem:smallperturba0ons,largevariability

  • Estimating the climate response

    UsingregionaltemperaturesensiKvityfactors:allowsarapidevalua0onofregionalemissionreduc0ons(ShindellandFaluvegi,2009;Shindell2012)

    Emissions

    ConcentraKons

    RadiaKveForcing

    TemperatureResponse

  • Surface temperature response altitude dependent

    IncreasedabsorpKonathigheralKtudesintheArc0c(posi0veforcing)couldleadtosurfacecooling.

    Flanner,JGR,2013

    IncreasedAAOD

    IncreasedAAOD

  • Blueshading:indicatesal0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtocooltheArc0csurface.Redshading:al0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtowarmtheArc0csurface.

    Surface temperature response altitude dependent VerKcalprofilesofBCintheArcKcàorigina0ngfromBCemissionsoccurringwithindifferentla0tudebands.

    AMAPBC&O3report,2015

  • Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringoil/gas

    AMAPBC&O3report,20153%ofglobalBCemiss,33%>60°N,66%>66°N

  • JAN

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • FEB

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • MAR

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • APR

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • MAY

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • JUN

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • JUL

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • AUG

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • SEP

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • OCT

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • NOV

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • DEC

    Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia

  • Emissionregions

    Canada UnitedStates NordicCountries

    SouthEastAsiaRussia Non-Arc0cEurope

  • Arctic temperature change

    1)domes0c2)energy/industry/waste3)Transport4)agriculturalwasteburning5)forestfires6)flaring

    1234 56

    •  Largest sources of warming: –  E/S Asia domestic emissions (largely via extra-Arctic forcing) –  Russia gas flaring (via Arctic forcing) –  ROW domestic emissions (high BC/SO2 emission ratio)

    •  Largest sources of cooling: –  Energy+Industry+Waste emissions (esp. E/S Asia, low BC/SO2 emission ratio)

    •  Fire emissions are near climate-neutral because of low BC/OC emission ratio

    Sandetal.,NCC,2015

    Arc0csurfacetemperaturechange

    4

  • ‘Bang for the buck’ •  High-latitude sources (Russia,

    Nordic, Canada) have largest impact by this measure

    •  Warming from BC stands out because of its large radiative efficiency

    Sandetal.,NCC,2015

  • Mitigation potential

    Global mitigation scenario for SLCFs –  all emission mitigation measures with both a

    beneficial air quality and short-term climate impact

    –  focused on mitigation options that resulted in a global net cooling (using the GTP20 metric).

    –  2015 … 2050 Derived from model-mean equilibrium dT’s and impulse response functions (Boucher and Reddy, 2008)

  • 1)domes0c2)agriculturalwasteburning3)energy/industry/waste4)transport

    Volkswagen

    Sandetal.,NCC,2015

    Mi0ga0onpoten0alArc0csurfacetemperatures


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