GOLD

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OIL & GAS

BASE METALSJuly-August 2016

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INSIDE...Gold: Plan BEight years after our near meltdown in 2008, trust in our politicians, central banks  and the intelligentsia have eroded, in part due to the failed promises and solutions which, beside pushing up asset prices has resulted in the an anemic economic recovery despite rounds and rounds of monetary stimulus and the lowest rates in 5,000 years. Consequently, voter frustration, disillusionment and anger has led to a rise in populism and radical political solutions, such as Brexit. As such investors are more concerned about the return of their money, rather than the return. To be sure in the last twenty years, we have seen steady debt accumulation, and a shift of risk to debtors, at the expense of savers.

...Continued on page 8

Rare Earth MetalsPay the Price ofPrevious ExcessRare earths supply has still not recovered from the excesses of 2009-2011. The common assumption is that rare earths are irreplaceable in many of their uses. Not so apparently. Now Honda and Daldo have just delivered a tail-wind demand shock.

…Page 11

Investment Newsletter DigestThe nation’s leading commodity newsletters and analysts give their advice on Coffee, Spectra Energy, Eggs, Gold Miners, Commodity Complex, “Buy” advice for DBA, DBC and GLD.

...Page 14

Did Oil Kill the Dinosaurs?What killed the dinosaurs? It’s a question as old as – well the dinosaurs themselves, and one that everyone from school children to scientists have been asking for decades. Now according to a new scientific study, it seems that black gold may have been the source of the dinos’ demise.

... Page 10

Precious and copper may extend gains while energy, grains and palm oil may suffer from further losses in the third quarter. Softs remain mixed, with sugar and coffee riding on steady uptrend and cocoa on downtrend. The dollar index could have completed a consolidation from March 2015 and resumed its long-term uptrend, says Wang Tao, Reuters market analyst for commodity and energy technicals. Tao gives his technical analysis for Q3 2016 for U.S. Oil, Brent Oil, Spot Gold, Spot Silver, LME Copper, NY Coffee, CRB Index and the Dollar Index.

... Page 3

Technical Analysis Q3 Commodity Outlook

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3

Precious metals and copper may extend gains while energy, grains and palm oil may suffer further losses in the third quarter. Softs remain mixed, with sugar and coffee riding on steady uptrend and cocoa on downtrend. The dollar index could have completed a consolidation from March 2015 and resumed its long-term uptrend, says Wang Tao, Reuters market analyst for commodity and energy technicals.

Here is Tao’s technical analysis for the third quarter 2016 for U.S. oil, Brent oil, Spot gold, Spot Silver, LME copper, NY coffee, CRB index and the dollar index.

U.S. Oil May Retrace Towards $41.85

U.S. oil may retrace towards $41.85 per barrel over the next three months, as a temporary top could have formed at the June 8 high of $51.62.

The top followed a completion of a zigzag that developed from the Feb. 11 low of $26.05. The pattern consists of three small waves, with the third wave labeled c having traveled a similar distance as the first wave labeled c, as suggested by a Fibonacci projection analysis.

The bearish divergence on the daily MACD confirms an exhaus-tion of the uptrend which could reverse, as the trendline rising from $26.05 was broken.

The chart from $26.05 could be roughly symmetrical to the part from the Aug. 24, 2015 low of $37.75 to the Jan. 1 low of $26.19, which indicates the formation of an inverted head-and-shoulders.

The right shoulder may develop into the range of $38.84-$41.85, formed by the 50 percent and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retrace-ments on the rise from $26.05 to $51.62

Given that the left shoulder has taken almost two months to complete, the right shoulder could last a similar period. The implication is the target at $41.85 may not be reached so soon.

Most likely, oil could consolidate for some time in the range of $45.59-

Technical Analysis Q3 Outlook 2016Precious Metals & Copper May Extend Gains, Softs Mixed

$49.83, formed by the 23.6 percent and the 7 percent retracements, before falling towards $41.85.

On the monthly chart, the cur-rent correction could be regarded

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4

Brent oil may retrace into a range of $40.28-$43.35 per barrel in three months, before resuming its uptrend towards the June 9 high of $52.86.

The contract failed to break a resistance at $53.38, the 61.8 high percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the May 6, 2015 high of $69.63 to the January 20 low of $27.10.

The failure suggests the comple-tion of the first leg of the uptrend from $27.10. Over the next three months, oil could retrace to $43.35, the 38.2 percent level. The uptrend seems to be controlled by another set of Fibonacci retracements as well, which are calculated on the downtrend from the August 2013 high of $117.34 to $27.10.

This retracement analysis re-veals a lower target at $40.28, the 14.6 percent level, which will only be available should the support at $43.35 fail to hold. The fall from $52.86 could be regarded as a pull-back towards a support at $42.11 on the monthly chart.

Wave pattern on the uptrend suggests the completion of a dou-ble-zigzag, which as a slim chance to extend, as the bearish diver-gence on the MACD confirms the exhaustion of the trend.

The chart pattern from Aug. 28, 2015 looks like an inverted head-and-shoulders, with the right shoulder developing towards $43.35.

The left shoulder took around two months to finish. This duration may apply to the right shoulder. That means oil could be bound in the range of $43.35-$53.38 in the third quarter.

A rise above the June 22 high of $51.24 could be extended to $53.38.

Spot Gold Targets $1,483-$1,527 Range

Spot gold may rise into a range of $1,483-$1,527 per ounce over the next three months, as suggested by a Fibonacci retracement analysis and its wave pattern.

The uptrend from the Dec. 3, 2015 low of $1,045.85 has been controlled by two sets of Fibonacci retracements. The first set is on the downtrend from the 2011 high of $1,920.30, and the second is on the uptrend from the August 1999 low of $251.70 to $1,920.30.

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as a pullback towards the range of $42.66-$43.84, formed by the 76.4 percent Fibonacci projection level of a downward wave C from the May 2011 high of 114.83, and the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the December 1998

low of $10.35 to $147.27.After the pullback, oil is expected

to resume its uptrend towards the range of $57.40-$62.65, formed by the 50 percent projection level and the 61.8 percent retracement.

Brent Oil May Retrace into $40.28-$43.35

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Continued from previous page

The metal has broken above a resistance zone of $1,252-$1,283, formed by the 23.6 percent retrace-ment of the downtrend and the 38.2 percent retracement of the uptrend.

The next resistance will be at $1,380, the 38.2 percent retrace-ment on the downtrend. Working together with this barrier is an-other similar one provided by a trendline falling from $1,920.30.

A break above $1,380 could open the way towards the next resistance zone of $1,483-$1,527, formed by the 50 percent retracement on the downtrend and the 23.6 percent retracement on the uptrend.

The break is highly likely, as suggested by a detailed study on the rally from $1,045.85.

The rally has adopted a five-wave mode, with its fifth wave labeled (5) having extended. A Fibonacci projection analysis suggests this wave may travel to $1,457, its 100 percent level, based on the rise from $1,045.85 to $1,303.60, the May 2 high and the presumed peak of the wave (3).

A Fibonacci retracement analy-sis suggests a similar target at $1,454, assuming the wave (4) divides the five-wave cycle into two parts by a ratio of 0.618.

Logically, if gold could travel to $1,457, it is expected to break $1,380. The target zone of $1,483-$1,527 will be aborted should the metal break below $1,260, the 23.6 percent projection level.

Spot Silver May Rise into $21.09-$22.07

Spot silver may break a resis-tance zone of $18.12-$18.84 per ounce and rise into a range of $21.09-$22.07 over the next three months, as indicated by a few Fibo-nacci retracement analyses.

The resistance zone is formed by the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement on the uptrend from the October 2008 low of $8.42 to the April 2011 $49.51 and the 14.6 percent Fibonacci retracement from the downtrend from $49.51 to the December 2015 low of $13.60.

A break above $18.84 could open the way towards $22.07, the 23.6 percent retracement on the downtrend. However, the current

rally seems to be controlled by another set of retracements as well.

This set is calculated based on a bigger uptrend from the 1993 low $3.53 to $49.51. It reveals a lower target at $21.09, the 61.8

percent retracement, only a break above which could lead to a gain to $22.07.

Silver has a better chance of breaking above $18.12, as it is

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testing this barrier again after a failure in May. It touched a high at $18.31 on June 24, which is higher than the May 2 high of $18.01, confirming the uptrend from the Dec. 14, 2015 low of $13.60.

A detailed study on this uptrend on the daily chart suggests an immediate target range of $19.03-$19.79, which is high above $18.12.

The range is formed by the 100 percent and the 123.6 percent Fibonacci projection levels of an upward wave c, the third wave of a three-wave cycle from the April 1 low of 14.75. A rising trendline indicates this range as well.

Support is at $17.01, the 38.2 percent level, a break below which could cause a loss to the 14.6 percent level at $16.25.

LME Copper to Test Resistance at $5,144

LME copper is expected to test

a resistance at $5,144 per tonne in the next three months, a break above which could lead to a gain to the next resistance at $5,400.

The rise from the Jan. 15 low to $4,318 has not completed. It consists of three waves, so far, only two have unfolded. The third wave labeled C is progressing towards $5,297, its 100 percent Fibonacci projection level. However, before reaching $5,297, copper needs to overcome a key resistance at $5,144, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement on the drop from May 5, 2015 high of $6,481 to $4,318.

This resistance has caused a deep correction towards the 7 percent retracement at $4,469. It may cause another shallow correction when it is approached.

Copper is facing an immediate resistance at $4,794, the 38.2 percent projection level of the wave C, which temporarily blocks the way towards the 61.8 percent level at $4,986.

There could be three scenarios on the development of this wave: it ends around $4,986, if it is very weak, or travels to $5,297, the 100 percent level, or it extends to $5,799, the 161.8 percent level.

Under the first scenario, a wedge will form, which will be a bearish continuation pattern. The target at $5,144 has to be aborted and a bearish target will be established at $4,318.

Once the metal reaches $5,297, it will have a better chance of rising to $5,799, as the chart pattern will turn out to be a high-low bottom.

A further drop from the current level could be limited to $4,602, the 14.6 percent level.

NY Coffee to Rise to $1.5760

New York coffee is expected to rise to $1.5760 per lb. over the next three months, as it has cleared a resistance at $1.4070.

The resistance was provided by the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement on the Oct. 13, 2014 high of $2.210 to the March 1, 2016 low of $1.1340.

The next resistance will be at $1.5760, the 38.2 percent level, a break above which could open the way towards to 50 percent level at $1.7125.

An inverted head-and-shoulder forming between September 2015 and June 2016 has been confirmed, suggesting a target at $1.6285, well above $1.5760. The resistance, along with other lower resistances at $1.3030 and $1.2150, provided respectively by the 14.6 percent and the 7 percent levels, seems to be not sensitive enough to reflect the real market behavior, as coffee has not reacted exactly to these levels.

A detailed study on the rally from $1.1340 on the daily chart reveals more resistances that are working exactly on the move.

One of them is $1.4730, the 114.6 percent Fibonacci projection level of an upward wave c. This barrier will be tested as coffee has surged above the 100 percent level at $1.4370.

A rising trendline indicates a target zone of $1.5610-$1.5905, formed by the 150 percent and the 161.8 percent levels. This zone well engulfs the target at $1.5760.

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A further correction from the current level could be limited to support range of $1.3785-$1.4035, formed by the 76.4 percent and the 86.4 percent levels.

CRB Index May Rise to 215.4267

Thomson Reuters CRB index may test a resistance at 201.507 over the next three months, a break above which could lead to

a gain to the next resistance at 215.4267.

The rally from the Jan. 20 low of 154.8462 was caused by a support at 161.5333, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci projection level of a downward wave C that developed from the April 29, 2011 high of 370.7105.

Based on this calculation, the index is expected to climb to 201.507, the 61.8 percent level. In the meantime, the rally could be regarded as a retracement on a downtrend from the June 23, 2014 high of 313.434.

A retracement analysis reveals a target at 215.4267, the 38.2 percent level, as a rise to 201.507 could well confirm a break above the 23.6 percent level at 192.2729.

A drop below the June 27 low of 187.0135 could be extended to the 14.6 percent retracement at 178.

Dollar Index to Rise Towards 101.797

The dollar index is expected to rise towards a resistance at 101.797 in the next three months, as it could have completed a correction from the March 2015 high of 100.39.

The correction has been driven by a wave 4, the fourth wave of a five-wave cycle from the March 2008 low of 70.698. This wave has adopted a flat mode, consisting of three roughly equal waves labeled a, b, and c.

This wave will be totally re-versed by a wave 5, which is capable of traveling to 117.709, the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the February 1985 high of 164.72 to 70.698.

A more realistic target could be 101.797, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the July 2001 high of 121.02 to 70.698.

Support is at 92.887, a 23.6 percent retracement, a break below which could cause a loss limited to 89.921, a 38.2 percent retracement.

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AND MARKET TRENDSGoldStockNews.com

8

By John Ing, President & CEOMaison Placements Canada Inc.

Eight years after our near meltdown in 2008, trust in our politicians, central banks and the intelligentsia have eroded, in part due to the failed promises and solutions which, beside pushing up asset prices has resulted in the an anemic economic recovery despite rounds and rounds of monetary stimulus and the lowest rates in 5,000 years. Consequently, voter frustration, disillusionment and anger has led to a rise in populism and radical political solutions, such as Brexit.

As such investors are more concerned about the return of their money, rather than the return.

To be sure in the last twenty years, we have seen steady debt accumulation, and a shift of risk to debtors, at the expense of savers. Taxpayer bail-outs have given way to depositor bail-ins. A new monetary order must emerge. What damages trust in the US damages the whole worlds. The world’s major economies have experienced rapid money growth of 10 percent plus per annum in recent years. Although the Fed is the largest holder of gold, supplies are limited. If gold is a finite currency, its value against not just the dollar, but pounds and the euro too, must rise particularly when fiat currencies yield negative interest rates. Stores of values are needed and in the end, everyone must deal with the consequences of the past. Central banks are part of the problem, not the solution. Gold is everyone’s Plan B.

RecommendationsGold is a beneficiary of negative

rates and was one of this year’s best performers as investors sought refuge from turbulent markets and Brexit fears. China also was a big buyer while gold held by ETF funds jumped 40 percent to over 2,000 tonnes. Noteworthy was that the gold mining sector outpaced gold bullion. We believe the gold stocks provide superior leverage to the gold price. Over

the years miners have plucked the low hanging fruit, developing the most easily accessible deposits but today there is more risk as miners go further and deeper searching for deposits. Mine grade has been cut in half over the last three years and miners have fought back by high grading at the expense of future margins. Cost cutting has taken place with a focus on margin improvement, grade control and balance sheet reparation. High cost production was shuttered and the majority of producers did not replace reserves last year. Balance sheets improved with the writing down of billions in assets. No longer it seems will the industry grow, for growth sakes. Miners have finally learned how to make a profit on every ounce they produce.

Not surprisingly then the large senior gold producers have gained almost 200% since yearend. The developers in particular have lifted and a flood of equity issues have replenished their treasuries, making them the next round of producers. TMAC and Osisko filled their treasuries while Richmont Mines raised $31 million to expand the Island Gold Mine. Notwithstanding the performance of the gold miners, we believe they remain cheap, particularly since their reserves in

the ground are valued at a market cap per ounce of less than $300 an ounce. It is still cheaper to buy ounces on Bay Street than explore. Goldcorp has bought Kaminak’s Coffee project at less than $200 per ounce. There are rumours that China National Gold, the largest gold company in China will purchase with a consortium, Glencore’s 360,000 ounce Vasilkovskoye Mine in Kazakhstan, for $2 billion financed by the state backed $40 billion Silk Road Fund. Silk Road is an ambitious plan to link Europe with China along an ancient network of trade routes spanning some 60 countries.

We continue to expect a $1,400 gold price near term and a $1,600 price over the intermediate-term with an ultimate target at $2,200 an ounce.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) shares have outperformed its peers as the market has rewarded John Thornton’s turnaround of Barrick, which slashed debt, cut costs, focused on optimizing core assets and today has one of the lowest AISC in the industry. Possible non-core divestures include the 64 percent stake in Acacia, 50 percent of Zaldivar and the other

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Gold: Plan B

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Continued from previous page

half of Kalgoorie. And rather than focus on diversified M&A deals, the focus remains on gold. Thornton’s well-articulated strategy is finally understood by the market and its management has bought into his partnership structure. Barrick is a world class producer with a renewed focus on strong profitable growth and increasing shareholder value. The miner has an enviable array of tier 1 assets and the largest in-situ resource in the world. Having reduced its debt and regained balance sheet flexibility, it is unlikely that we will see another megadeal. Rather, we expect a continuation of the partnership or joint venture approach which minimizes risk and provides opportunities to establish new strategic partnerships (even outside mining). We continue to like Barrick here.

B2 Gold Corp. (BTO) produced 135,000 ounces in the quarter reflecting strong results from from Masbate (up 30 percent), Limon, and Otjikoto despite a pit failure. Construction is underway at Fekola in Mali which is on schedule, on budget and will commence production in late 2017. Fully funded Fekola is an open pit mine that will produce 350,000 ounces at a cash cost of $418 per ounce. Once completed, B2Gold will have grown its production from 2015 to 2018 by more than 60 percent, in contrast to projected declines at Eldorado, Kinross and Goldcorp over the same period. B2Gold is also developing Kiaka which is one of the largest undeveloped resources in West Africa. With a strong pipeline, a proven track record and rising growth profile, we recommend the shares here.

Centerra Gold Inc. (CG) is acquiring Thompson Creek Met-als for $1.1 billion in a transaction that will reduce its exposure to Central Asia. Thompson Creek was a problem moly producer whose production was shut down because of low prices. Thompson Creek op-erates the Mount Milligan copper/gold mine which is a high cost, low grade deposit in British Colum-bia. We believe the acquisition is expensive and only Thompson

Creek’s bondholders benefit since Centerra will assume almost $900 million of debt, a heavy price to lessen Centerra’s exposure to Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, Centerra faces ongoing negotiations with the Kyrgz Republic whose govern-ment is pushing for a bigger stake in the Kumtor Mine. We prefer B2Gold here.

Detour Gold Corp. (DGC) had an analyst tour to show its progress at Detour Mine. The plant averaged 64 ktpd for more than a month, up from design capacity of 55 kptd due to the clearing of the 410 bottleneck. Detour’s guidance at 540,000 to 560,000 ounces is on track and the Ontario based miner has become one of Canada’s major producers. Detour Gold has only twenty percent of its property explored and the recent lower Detour West results will allow the expansion of Detour Lake’s 16.4 million ounces in reserves (23 years). To be sure, Detour’s teething issues have been resolved. Detour has $200 million of cash on hand allowing flexibility to refinance their convertible notes next year. We like the shares for its long reserve life.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD) has been a laggard due to its permitting problems in Greece. Eldorado is a low cost producer operating three core mines which should produce 400,000 ounces this year at AISC of $842 per ounce. Eldorado recently received the official go-ahead permit approving the building at Skouries in Greece which should be commissioned in early 2017. Nonetheless, we expect a slow resolution of the Greek problems and with the resumption of development in Greece. Eldorado can provide needed jobs and capital, something that Greece needs. Eldorado recently exited China by selling its Chinese gold mines for $900 million to local companies leaving management to concentrate on the development of the Greek mines and return to its core assets, Efemcukuru and Kisladag mines in Turkey which make up about 60 percent of NAV. Eldorado has a solid balance sheet with pro forma cash of $1.1 billion allowing it to finance Skouries in Greece, Olympias and Certej in Romania. We like the shares down here.

Goldcorp Inc. (G) acquired Ka-minak’s Coffee gold project in the Yukon which is a high-grade open pit heap leach project with a re-source of three million ounces plus. However, Kaminak is in the middle of nowhere and infrastructure costs will be high. Nonetheless, the acquisition of Kaminak fills a gap and but is insufficient to make up for slower development from Eleonore in Québec, Cerro Negro and Penasquito in Mexico, the flag-ship which is in a low-grade cycle. Goldcorp is in need of a rationaliza-tion of assets and the company’s still has to sort out its Ontario plan having acquired Borden and Cochenour for $2 billion with noth-ing to show. Newly minted CEO, David Garofalo still has to reduce overheads, flatten management ranks and refocus operations. Like Agnico-Eagle, McEwen Mining and Barrick, Goldcorp has invested in a portfolio of juniors hoping acorns will grow into trees. In the interim, we prefer Barrick here.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K) has expanded reserves at Bald Mountain and Round Mountain which was recently acquired from Barrick. While Kinross paid top dollar the deal makes tactical sense because it replaces declining production. Kinross should produce about 2.7 million ounces this year but faces production declines due to chronic problems at Tasiast in Mauritania where they halted mining and processing due to a work stoppage. Kinross had unveiled a phase 2 expansion plan but the government is hoping to renegotiate Kinross’ agreement, so those plans are be on hold. Kinross has eight mines in the Americas, West Africa and the recent acquisition reduces its unhealthy exposure to Russia, which represents about a third of its assets. We prefer Agnico Eagle here.

McEwen Mining (MUX) – Debt-free McEwen Mining has put in a sterling performance partly due to the turnaround of the Argentine political climate and strengthened mining operations. McEwen Mining plans to build the Gold Bar Mine in Nevada adding to flagship El Gallo in Mexico and San Jose in Argentina. Rob

Continued on page 13

10

By Michael McDonaldOilprice.com

What killed the dinosaurs? It’s a question as old as – well the dinosaurs t h e m s e l v e s , and one that everyone from school children to s c i ent i s t s have been ask-ing for decades. Movies like Ju-rassic Park and the Land Before Time only heighten that sense of wonder and raise the stakes be-hind that question. Now according to a new scientific study, it seems that black gold may have been the source of the dinos’ demise.

Japanese researchers at Tohuku University and the Meteorological Research Institute authored a recent study in the research journal Scientific Reports suggesting that a meteor impact 66 million years ago on an oil rich region of Yucatan Peninsula led to the death of the dinosaurs. When the asteroid hit the vast oil deposits of Mexico, it sent thick black smoke into the atmosphere, changing the climate around the world. That soot blocked out the sun leading to a significant cooling of the planet. Equally importantly, it also led to

a substantial drought around the world.

The asteroid in question was roughly 6 miles wide and its impacted created the 110 mile wide crater that exists in the Yucatan today – the third largest crater on Earth. The impact was the equivalent of roughly 1 billion atomic bombs of the equivalent power to what struck Hiroshima at the end of World War 2.

The researchers calculate that the amount of soot released would have lowered sunlight exposure by 85 percent and reduced rainfall by 80 percent. That would have had a significant impact on plant growth, which in turn would have limited food options for most dinosaurs. In addition, the soot cooled the Earth by 16 degrees Celsius (about 28.8

degrees Fahrenheit) over the course of just 3 years. Think of the event as the reverse of global warming – and on steroids.

A g a i n s t t h i s backdrop it is not surprising that di-nosaurs all died out. Only smaller mam-mals that could live underground would have survived. In fact, the fossil record suggests that only 12 percent of the pre-asteroid life was able to survive af-

ter the impact. It was not just dinosaurs that died either, con-trary to myths about the Ice Age – around 93 percent of mam-m a l s p e c i e s were killed off as well, accord-ing to a separate research study by scientists at the University of Bath. The largest animals that would have survived the ex-

tinction event were about the size of a house cat.

Still, life bounced back “fairly quickly” researchers say, with about twice as many species ex-isting 300,000 years after the event versus before it. Of course, given that the course of human his-tory only goes back around 25,000 years, three-hundred thousand years is still a long period of time. It reflects the reality that the aster-oid strike had a significant enough impact that its effects took tens of thousands of years to dissipate. It was the adaptability of mammals after the strike versus various reptiles that led the mammals to ultimately come to dominate the planet. Dinosaurs were in decline for millions of years before the as-teroid strike, but that event aided by the oil rich soil of the Yucatan finished them off.

It’s ironic that oil, so fundamen-tal for modern human life was ultimately the catalyst that wiped out the dinosaurs. Had the aster-oid stuck in a less oil rich region, back of the envelope calculations suggest its impact would have only been around one-third as devastating. It’s impossible to say if that would have allowed any of the dinosaurs to live or not, but it is at least a possibility. Perhaps if not for the existence of oil, none of us would have cars, but maybe we would all have a pet brontosaurus.

By Michael McDonald of Oilprice.com

Chicxulub Crater, third largest impact crater in the world, lies mostly underwater and buried underneath the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.

Did Oil Kill the Dinosaurs?

11

Reuters – For every action there is a reaction and never more so than when it comes to industrial commodity supply chains.

Japanese automotive giant Honda and its technology partner Daldo Steel have just announced a materials breakthrough in the electric motors used in hybrid vehicles.

Starting with the next genera-tion of “FREED’ minivan due to go on sale later this year, Honda will be using a motor that doesn’t need rare earth metals.

Specifically, it will be the world’s first hybrid engine, one combining a gasoline and electric motor, to dispense with terbium and dys-prosium.

“Major deposits of heavy rare earth elements are unevenly (dis-tributed) around the world (…) thus, the use of heavy rare earth carries risks from the perspectives of stable procurement and material costs,” Honda said.

A fairly innocuous sounding statement but one that cuts to the heart of the roller coaster history of the rare earths market.

Boom and BustThe price of terbium metal in

China is currently 3,475 yuan ($520) per kilogram, according to Mysteel. This month five years ago it was 26,500 yuan.

That of dysprosium, again according to Mysteel, has fallen from 15,500 yuan per kilogram to 1,650 over the same period.

The year 2011 marked the peak of the rare earths bubble, a price explosion that transformed an esoteric section of the chemical table into front-page news.

It was a bubble made exclusively in China, the world’s dominant producer across the full spectrum of rare earths metals.

The country had imposed an export tariff and quota system on its exports in 2009, sending shock waves down a global manufac-turing chain, which had become increasingly dependent on these

Rare Earth Metals Pay the Price of Previous Excess

Honda creates electric motor without using heavy rare-earth metals for its magnets.

weird and wonderful metals for everything from mobile phones to nuclear fuel rods.

A World Trade Organization (WTO) case found against China in 2014 and the country eliminated all export quotas last year.

But by that time the boom had already turned to bust. Collective thrifting and hoarding by buyers saw demand disappear, while illegal smuggling of rare earth across China’s porous northwestern borders went into overdrive.

The latter remains a key damp-ener on prices, which are back at pre-boom levels.

Chinese authorities have this year launched a new crackdown on illegal mining and have an-nounced a new stockpiling scheme to support the country’s own offi-cial producers, many of which are piling up losses.

Stable ProcurementThat price explosion of 2009-

2011 was the trigger for Honda to hook up with Daldo to look at redesigning the magnets that lie at the heart of electric automotive vehicles.

But price is only part of the picture.

The magnets in the “FREED” minivan will still use another rare earth metal, neodymium, which has experienced the same boom and bust price cycle as its heavier

sister metals such as terbium and dysprosium.

But neodymium is one rare earth metal that is produced in quantity outside of China.

Australia’s Lynas Corp. mines rare earths at its Mt. Weld op-erations in Western Australia and sends them for refining to its Ma-laysian separation plant.

In its first-quarter 2016 op-erations report Lynas noted that neodymium and praseodymium “remained in high demand from magnet makers in Japan where we maintain over 50 percent share.”

Japan’s enthusiasm for Aus-tralian neodymium is a result of China’s temporary ban on rare earth exports to its Asian neighbor in 2010, a move that only added fuel to already red-hot prices.

Although never explicitly stated, the ban seemed linked to a smouldering dispute over the status of the islands in the East China Sea called Senkaku by the Japanese and Diaoyu by the Chinese.

So when Honda notes the “uneven” geographic distribution of heavy rare earth metals, it doesn’t take too great a leap of the imagination to guess which specific geographical location has been troubling its supply chain planners.

Continued on page 13

12

Rueters – Andy Home: Zinc is this year’s investment pick of the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The price of LME zinc for three-months delivery has risen by 42 percent since the start of January to a current $2,235 per tonne.

It is by a wide margin the strongest year-to-date performance among the LME pack and prices are now back at levels last seen in May last year.

Also rising at a fast clip, though, is speculative interest on both the London and Shanghai markets.

Market open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is surging, while spec-ulative length in the LME is rapidly approaching those May 2015 peaks. Investment money is betting on zinc’s supply-side story of raw materials crunch, a stand-out in a sector still overshadowed by the overarching demand-side narrative of Chinese slowdown.

But timing this story has always been tricky. Investors have got sucked into the zinc market before, most recently in May last year, when the London price peaked at $2,400 only to collapse back below $1,500 by the end of the year.

Is this time going to be any different?

Piling on the BetsSpeculative length has been

steadily growing in the London zinc contract, both reacting to and adding to the current strong price rally.

The LME’s own positioning reports show that money managers were net long of zinc to the tune of 73,928 lots, equivalent to around 18 percent of open interest, at the end of last week.

That’s the largest cumulative long position since May 2015, when it peaked at just over 100,000 lots.

The exchange’s commitment of traders report has many detractors for the way entities, particularly some of the larger ones, are clas-sified.

However, an alternative take on

Zinc starts to bubble as investors pile in (again)

speculative positioning from LME broker Marex Spectron, is painting pretty much the same picture.

Marex estimates the net specu-lative long position in LME zinc has surged by 13,000 lots over the last week to a current 28,000 lots, equivalent to 14.6 percent of open interest.

The methodologies may be different but the underlying theme is the same. Marex too estimates that this is the most speculative length in the contract since May of last year.

Something very similar is happening in the Shanghai zinc market.

Market open interest has risen to 508,000 contracts from just over 300,000 as recently as the middle of May.

It has exceeded current levels on just two occasions in the past.

The first was in the July-Sep-tember 2014 period, when prices were also surging. The second was in November last year, when open interest and volumes spiked as prices fell, attesting to a collective bear raid on the market.

Volumes in this particular price up-cycle have been relatively subdued, suggesting no return of the retail crowd that roiled Chinese commodity markets in the first quarter of this year.

Rather, the inference is that the build in open interest in tandem with rising prices is mirroring the structural build in investment money in London without overly attracting the masses of day-trad-ers that populate both Shanghai and other domestic exchanges.

Tightness Now…That zinc’s prospects are rela-

tively brighter than most of the other London base metals packs is not really in doubt.

There is a hardening consensus that zinc is suffering from a hard-rock supply problem as some of the world’s oldest but biggest mines reach the end of their lives. All the evidence is supportive of this thesis.

Global mine production slumped by 8.1 percent in the first four months of this year, according to the latest monthly statistical update from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG).

That has caused a drop in treat-ment charges, the amount smelters charge miners for turning their raw material into metal, as pro-cessors compete for supply. Spot Chinese import terms, for example, have slid from $170 per tonne at the end of last year to around $100, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS.

That in turn has fed through to significantly lower Chinese imports so far this year. At 910,000 tonnes (bulk weight, not metal contained) they were down by 23 percent in the January-May period.

All of which reinforces the bull story of a fast-evolving concen-trates crunch, albeit one massaged by Glencore’s continued idling of 500,000 tonnes of annual mined capacity.

…Tightness TomorrowThe only problem is that these

constraints don’t yet appear to have translated into the refined metal part of the supply chain.

So for example, Swedish com-pany Boliden, which operates both mines and smelters, notes in its second- quarter report that “the market’s concentrate stocks are low and continued to decline during the quarter” but that “Euro-pean spot market metal premiums have remained stable”.

Physical metal premiums should be the real litmus test as to when concentrates shortfall translates into metal shortfall.

Quite evidently, it isn’t happen-ing yet and that is probably down to the amount of metal inventory, only partly visible, still sitting in warehouses around the world, but most particularly in New Orleans.

Some of it has been on the move, according to LME broker Triland Metals, which noted in its

Continued on page 13

13

Continued from page 11

PaybackRare earths supply has still

not recovered from the excesses of 2009-2011.

China is still struggling to control its own black market, which is undermining Beijing’s stated aim of becoming a global power-house in materials that feed into a host of evolving technologies.

Now Honda and Daldo have just delivered a tail-wind demand shock to those ambitions.

The common assumption is that rare earths are irreplaceable in many of their uses.

Not so apparently.And not only have the Japanese

companies worked out how to design two rare earth metals out of electric motors, but they have reduced costs by around 10 percent and weight by around 8 percent in doing so.

Starting next month Daldo Electronics will begin the mass-production and shipment of the new magnet from a new production line at its plant in Nakatsugawa City in Gifu Prefecture.

Honda “will continue expanding application of this technology to new models in the future.” Good news for the neodymium market. Less good news for the terbium and dysprosium markets.

These are relatively new metal-lic raw materials but the salutary lesson from the story is an old one.

If producers push prices to excess, there will be a demand payback, even if it takes several years to take concrete form.

Other new-age material sup-pliers, such as those of lithium, another market where prices are starting to bubble, should take note.

Continued from page 9

McEwen who is now a dollar a year man has made a point that executives don’t need to have a grand salary or a Gulf stream for success. McEwen owns 25 percent of McEwen Mining and at a dollar a year is grossly underpaid. McEwen will produce 144,000 ounces for the next couple years, ramping up to 170,000 ounces in 2018. We continue to like the shares here.

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) has reached a deal to sell Batu Hijau in Indonesia for $1.3 billion to an Indonesian/Chinese group. The price is attractive given the fact that the development price tag of Elang alone would have cost billions and Newmont faced export permit delays with Indonesian government. The sale is also attractive from a balance sheet point of view since Newmont will retire almost $600 million of debt with this deal. Newmont is the world’s second largest gold company with operations in seven countries and was penalized for its operations in Indonesia. However, looking ahead Newmont has little on the horizon and except for Phoenix, the miner is “harvesting” its

assets. We prefer Barrick here.

Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI) r e s u l t s w e r e i n l i n e w i t h expectations and the shares have done well since a rising tide lifts all boats. Yamana has gold operations in five countries with a strong base in South America but it’s been plagued with a healthy debt load of $1.7 billion which is why Yamana trades at a discount to its peers. Canadian Malartic (50% owned) continues to perform well. However, its high cost spinoff Brio Gold has not yet been spun off, hurting overall performance. Yamana produced 308,000 ounces in the first quarter while coproduction cost helped lower AISC. We expect the gold rally will allow Yamana an opportunity to reduce debt and spinoff Brio. Until then, we prefer Eldorado or B2Gold here which have better balance sheets and growth profiles.

Editor’s Note: John Ing is President, CEO and gold analyst at Maison Placements Canada Inc. Mr. Ing has 45 years of experience as a portfolio manager, mining analyst and investment banker.

Maison Placements Canada Inc. is recognized for providing the highest quality research for emerging growth companies with an emphasis on in-depth analysis instead of the quick synopsis in vogue today. For more information visit www.maisonplacements.com.

Gold: Plan BRare Earth Metals

Continued from page 12

latest weekly physical premium report that “traders (are) shipping material from New Orleans to Asia to meet long term contracts demand”.

But equally there still appears to be sufficient metal sitting in what is the black hole of the refined market’s supply chain to feed 77,000 tonnes into LME stocks at the U.S. port over the second half of June.

TimingThe route of travel in the zinc

market seems clear. Its speed in getting there, however, remains

highly uncertain.That is why some players have

opted for long-dated options as a way of playing the expected upside, in effect placing their bets on December 2016 and June 2017.

Plenty of others, however, are still expressing their bullish views in the form of the LME three-months price and shorter dated ShFE contracts.

Possibly too many of them.Without confirmation, and soon,

that the refined metal part of the supply chain is tangibly tightening, the current levels of open interest look like an accident waiting to happen.

Zinc starts to bubble

— Online —The Bull & Bear Financial Report

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ResouRce stocks: Gold, silveR & oil & Gas shaRes

Conrad’s UTILITY INVESTORCapitalist Times, LLC6841 Elm St. #1057, McLean, VA 22101.Monthly, Online e-Letter, 1 year, $299www.ConradsUtilityInvestor.com.

Spectra Energy Corp. Safety Lags in Risk-On Environment

Roger Conrad: “In June 2007, Spectra Energy Corp (NYSE: SE) – the newly separated midstream segment of Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK) – launched a partial initial public offering of some of its US gas pipelines as Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP).

Over the intervening years, the master limited partnership (MLP) has grown its distribution in 34 consecutive quarters for a total increase of 117.1 percent. And over the past 12 months, Spectra Energy Partners has hiked its payout by 8.3 percent – above the five-year average of 7.3 percent.

Spectra Energy Partners’ asset base now includes all the US gas pipelines formerly owned by its general partner. The MLP also boasts an $8 billion project backlog that includes a number of expansions to deliver inexpensive natural gas from the Marcellus Shale to demand-pull customers in underserved markets. Many of these utilities continue to transition away from coal.

Legitimately long-term contracts with investment-grade counter-parties account for about 95 percent of the partnership’s cash flow.

Spectra Energy Partners boasts one of the most secure cash flow profiles among publicly traded partnerships, one of the strongest balance sheets, a wide margin of distribution coverage and a relatively low cost of debt and equity capital. These qualities give the MLP a huge leg up on the competition, especially in an environment where oil prices trade in a much lower range than in recent years.

The partnership offers exposure to three potential

upside catalysts.First, Spectra Energy Partners’ stock has lagged

since energy stocks bottomed in February, generating a total return of 13.8 percent, compared with the Alerian MLP Index’s 56.8 percent gain.

This underperformance reflects Spectra Energy Partners’ relative outperformance when MLPs sold off in late 2015 and early 2016 as well as the stock’s relatively small weighting (1.6 percent) in the Alerian MLP Index and many popular exchange-traded funds – a product of Spectra Energy owning 80.35 percent of the partnership’s float.

Investors have also pared their exposure to safer names to ride the upside in riskier fare, a phenomenon that enabled us to exit several of our Aggressive Income Portfolio holdings for narrower losses.

When the risk-off trade inevitably comes back in vogue, expect Spectra Energy Partners to benefit from the flight to quality. Potential catalysts for such a move include another retreat in crude-oil prices – a distinct possibility if the oversupply of gasoline prompts US refineries to run at lower utilization rates – or a distribution cut at a high-profile MLP.

Spectra Energy Partners’ strong balance sheet also mean that the partnership could take advantage of distressed asset sales or participate in joint ventures to help weaker MLPs fund growth projects. Partnering with a customer could also be in the cards, with Southern Company (NYSE: SO) and other electric utilities seeking to add exposure to interstate gas pipelines.

Spectra Energy Partners LP yields 5.6 percent and joins the Aggressive Income Portfolio as a buy up to $55 per unit.”

Editor’s Note: Conrad’s Utility Investor delivers high-quality analysis and rational assessment of the best dividend-paying utilities, MLPs and dividend-paying Canadian energy names. Call for a Special Subscription Offer, 1-877-302-0749. Sign up to receive a free subscription to The Scoop, daily market intelligence from Roger Conrad, Elliott Gue and their hand-picked team of expert analysts, www.ConradsUtilityInvestor.com.

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The Hackett MONEY FLOW COMMODITY REPORT, 9259 Equus Circle, Boynton Beach, FL 33472. 1 year, 24 issues, $300. www.HackettAdvisors.com.

Coffee: Potential summer top

Shawn Hackett: “The million dollar question is…will there be harvest pressure coming for coffee or not? Normally coffee prices swoon downward in June and remain under pressure building a base into August before turning up in September. This year thus far coffee has defied normal seasonal price patterns which are normally quite bullish.

Evidence continues to mount that Brazil has completely destocked all of their above ground coffee stocks and one must solely rely on current production to fill demand needs.

The current Brazil crop was originally supposed to be 62 to 65 million bags. It now looks as though it will come in somewhere between 53 and 55 million with a risk to production being even worse than this. This will not build any above ground stocks and places the global coffee market into 3rd year of a deficit with 2017 looking very likely very likely to be another and the 4th.

This means that any weather volatility that is contrary to perfection will cause coffee prices to spike violently in response.

I believe that a weather volatility event in coffee against a destocked global coffee producer could provide the ammunition for coffee prices to revisit the $3/pound area last seen in 2011 by March to May of 2017.

Even though Vietnam is experiencing better rains this summer when compared to the last two summers, the cumulative effects of the preceding 2 year drought will not allow for production to recover until the harvest in November of 2017. That is a long time from now.

Brazilian cash coffee differentials have remained firm despite ongoing harvest which continues to paint a bullish longer term picture. Given the volatile nature of coffee moves higher in years past, out of the money December call options should be looked at for aggressive investors.

End users should continue to extend coverage and protect upward price risks.”

Editor’s Note: Shawn Hackett provides commodity market analysis for hedgers and investors. The Hackett Commodity Report focuses on Agricultural Commodities/Grain Markets (Corn, Soybean Complex, All Wheat Markets and Rice), SOFT Commodity Markets (Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton, Sugar Orange Juice and Lumber) and Livestock (Cattle, Hogs and Milk). Each commodity complex is price analyzed from the perspective of unique set of highly multi-decadal correlated fundamental, money flow, and technical indicators to determine the proper course of action for Investors and Hedgers to take. The cornerstone of Hackett’s analysis revolves around the proprietary Hackett Smart Money Flow Indicator which provides decisive long term buy and sell alerts to maximize effective decisions. For more information visit www.HackettAdvisors.com.

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THE COMPLETE INVESTORP.O. Box 248, Williamsport, PA 17703. Monthly, year, $199. www.completeinvestor.com.

Cheaper eggsKwen Chan: “Shares of Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

have struggled lately as sharply lower egg prices – a 70 percent drop in wholesale prices since February – have lowered earnings expectations. An avian flu outbreak had inflated prices, but the price correction seems overdone. The current average wholesale price of

about 45 cents per dozen is only around one-third the three-year average.

The egg market tends to be cyclical, and the excellent fundamentals that attracted us to Cal-Maine still stand: a pristine balance sheet, strong history of earnings growth, consistent cash flow generation, and a dependable dividend policy.

Furthermore, egg consumption is projected to return to pre-flu highs by next year, which should offset some of the negative impact from lower prices. We continue to like Cal-Maine.”

***************

THE PERSONAL CAPITALIST9524 East 81st Street Ste. B #1715, Tulsa, OK 74133. 1 year, 24 issues, $195.

“Our” gold shares are a buySean Christian feels gold miners are an excellent

way to invest in gold today. Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) are all listed as four star buys by Standard & Poor’s. As of 7/12 all of our producers are up nicely from their 52-week lows: NEM up 166%, ABX up 266%, FCX up 261% and OZ Minerals (OZMLF) up 45%. Looking at the global economy today, you can’t help noticing several worrying developments. On the one hand, we have currency

devaluations and negative interest rate policies; on the other hand, slow-to-no economic growth in both developed and developing economies. This scenario creates uncertainty among investors and causes investors to consider buying gold. The most recent World Gold Council report mentioned that Russia and China, the two largest purchasers of gold last year, continue to accumulate significant quantities of gold. China added 35.1 tons in the first quarter. Gold outperformed all other asset classes in the first quarter. We plan to hold our shares of gold mines.”

*************

The Peter Dag PORTFOLIO STRATEGY & MANAGEMENT, 65 Lakefront Dr., Akron, OH 44319. 1 year, 24 issues, $389. www.peterdag.com.

Commodity prices strong…butGeorge Dagnino: “Commodity prices are strong.

Lumber is up +45.5%, gold +26%, Commodity index +25%, copper +10%, crude oil +50%, agriculturals +7.5% from their bottom last December. These are impressive gains. These gains typically reflect a strengthening economy. Quite frankly we must confess we do not agree with the optimism of the commodity complex. But we are watching their trend very closely.

Gold’s trend is up as long as it stays above the 200dma. However, it has reached overbought levels. We are not buyers at these levels.”

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NATE’S NOTESP.O. Box 667, Healdsburg, CA 95448. Monthly, 1 year, $289. www.NotWallStreet.com.

New bull market for commodity prices

Nate Pile: “Though shares of PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) have cooled off quite a bit more dramatically than PowerShares DB Commodities (DBC) or SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), I am pleased to report that all of these commodity ETFs are continuing to trace out chart patterns that are consistent with the idea that we may entering a new bull market for commodity prices across the board… and, consequently, you are encouraged to be patient when taking profits (in fact, unless you have become significantly overweighted in DBA or DBC, you are encouraged to continue adding to your position in small pieces at regular intervals!). While gold is its own beast, there are a lot of reasons to believe that commodities across the board may be entering a new uptrend in response to a number of different variables around the globe… and the newsletter’s primary focus is on finding great growth stock opportunities, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take advantage of “inevitable price trends” when we think they are starting to materialize (as I believe is finally happening with regards to commodity prices). Of the two, DBC is showing better relative strength than DBA (which might make it the “slightly better” of the two this month, to answer another question!), but your overall goal should be to own “a balanced mix of DBA, DBC, and GLD” rather than fret over the exact amounts of each. DBA is a buy under $24. DBC is considered a buyer under $17.

I believe the multi-year bull market for the precious metal that I have been waiting on for a few years now may finally be getting underway! As part of a disciplined game plan, GLD is a buy under $130.

P.O. Box 917179, Longwood, FL 32791Publisher: The Bull & Bear Financial Report Editor: David J. Robinson1 year, 12 issues, $198TheResourceInvestor.com© Copyright 2016 The Resource Investor. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is strictly prohibited. The Resource Investor publishes investment news and comments of investment advisory newsletters whose thoughts are deemed of interest to subscribers. Neither the information, nor any opinion which may be expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or investment referred herein.

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