Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous position to Low Carbon World? 　

International Conference on Green Industry in Asia10 　 September 2009, Manila

Shuzo Nishioka 　　 　　 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

　　　 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan 　

Demand side

Supply side

20502005

To stabilize climate, demand side energy saving, especially in developing countries, plays a big role globally

% OECD nOECD

Share 35 65Energy saving -47 -59

Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 ScenarioA 　 research result to endorse Japanese policy of 60-80% reduction in 2050 by NIES, Kyoto Univ., TIT, Tokyo Univ. ＋ α 　 (2004-2009)

Key　conclusion:1.Japan　has　the　technological　potential　to　reduce　its　CO2　emission　by　70%　compared　to　the　1990　level,　while　satisfying　the　expected　demand　for　energy　services　in　2050.2.　Energy　saving　and　LC　primary　energy　contribute　almost　equally.3.　Innovation　necessary　not　only　in　technology　but　in　social　　　infrastructure　and　institutions　as　well

Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress (Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese environmental power, lead world transition towards Low Carbon Society…”(May 18) Japanese long-term target 60-80% reduction until 2050,

How to reach Low Carbon Society:Japanese case and Asian opportunity

Industry Household

Business

Passenger　transport

Freight　transport

0 100 200 300 400

2000

Scenario A

Scenario B

Industry Household BusinessPassenger transport

Freight transport

2050

2050

Eco-efficient　product　and　

consumers’　smart　choices　can　

reduce　energy　consumption　by　as　

much　as　40-45%

一次エネルギー供給

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Hydro

Solar/Wind

- 100 200 300 400 500 600

2000

Scenario A

Scenario B

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear

Hydro Solar/Wind

(Mtoe)

Low　carbon　shift　in　primary　energy　

sources　via　introduction　of　renewable　energies

Use of centralized energy

Use of distributed energy

2050

2050

(Mtoe)

Reduced energy demand

40-45 ％ reduction

Equal　effort　by　demand　&　supply　side

70 ％ CO2　

reductioncan　be　attained　by　

Energy×

CO2

Emission ＝PopGDP Service

DemandCO2

×Pop GDP

×Energy

×Energy

GDP/Cap2.7

Service IndustryShift 0.45

Energy efficiency

0.6

Service DemandSame as 2000

【 Demand side 】Saving energy devices,

hi-insulated housing, renewable energy,Compact city 70%40 ％ reduction

【 Supply side 】Nuclear,

Renewables,CCS with Coal

30 ％ reduction

Low Carbonize

0.5

CO20.3

Pop は0.8

Step 1Social change

Step 2Service demand

Step 3 ：Energy demand

Step 4 ：CO2

emission

Service Demand

Energy Efficiency is the key, but not enough

2050 Japan LCS Scenario

Significant CO2reduction Potential in demand side

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Secondary　energy　demand　(million　tonC) ）

Industry Res. OfficePassenger　　　　　　Cargo

others2000

2050A2%/yGrowth

2050B1%/yGrowth

Toshiba aims Factor 10 Toshiba aims Factor 10

The ideal situation in 2050People lead rich lifestyles in harmony with the EarthCommon goal to reduce CO2 emissions by half to prevent global

warmingReducing the environmental impact generated by human beings by half

An increasingly growing populationReducing the environmental impact generated by each person by 1.5 times

Economic development accelerated, especially in developing countries

Creating 3.4 times more value

Factor 10 by 2050Factor 10 by 2050EnvironmentalVision　

2050 Simplifiedeco-

efficiencyGDP/CO2

CO2 : 1/2CO2 : 1/2

Population : X 1.5Population : X 1.5

GDP/Population : X 3.4GDP/Population : X 3.4

GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2

= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2

GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2

= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2

Takeda (Toshiba): 2009

Factor = Degree of Improvement of Eco-efficiency

Eco-efficiency and Factor

Eco-efficiency =Environmental

Impactof a product

Value of a product

*The value of the factor indicates to what extent the eco-efficiency of the product has increased.

*The higher the value, the greater the eco-efficiency is.

Toshiba’s Approach: “Factor T” integrating three environmental perspectives - To optimize the trade-off between Environment and Lifestyle - 1. Integration of environmental

impact by the LIME Method2. Integration of value of a product

with multiple functions by the QFD method

3. Integration of product and business process eco-efficiency

What is Product Value?

•Voice of customer is translated into engineering metrics.

•Customers’ evaluation of a product is reflected in an indicator to enhance customer satisfaction.

•We adopted QFD* method to reflect customers’ evaluation in determination of product value.

*QFD (Quality Function Deployment):A systematic process for integrating product functions based on the degree of importance customers attach to them when selecting a product.

We

igh

t o

f C

un

tom

er

Re

qu

irem

en

t

Va

cuu

m W

ork

Ra

tio [

W]

Bo

dy

We

igh

t [g

]

To

tal W

eig

ht

[kg

]

Bo

dy

Vo

lum

e [

m3

]

Bru

sh W

eig

ht

[kg

]

Bru

sh V

olu

me

[m

3]

Ca

sse

t T

rash

[ -

]

Wh

ee

l Siz

e [

mm

]

Tra

p E

ffic

ien

cy [

%]

No

ise

[d

B]

Ru

nn

ing

We

igh

t [N

]

Nu

mb

er

of

Filt

er

[pcs

]

Co

mp

ress

Ra

tio o

f T

rash

[g

/L]

Ro

tary

Bru

sh [

rpm

]

Du

st P

ick-

up

Ra

tio [

%]

Tra

sh L

eft

be

sid

e W

all

[mm

]

Nu

mb

er

of

Ata

chm

en

ts [

pcs

]

Le

ng

h o

f N

ozz

le [

mm

]

Careless exhaust 5.3 1 9 3 9 1Vacuum everything 8.7 9 1 1 3 1 3 9 1Silent 5.7 3 3 9 1Easy to dispose trash 2.3 1 1 9 3Clean up narrow area 3.4 1 3 9Clean up flooring 7.0 9 9 3Subordinate body 2.7 3 9 3Clean up corners 7.8 3 3 9 3Easy to clean 4.0 1 9 9 3 9 1 3 3 1 1Easy to move brush 3.1 9 9 1 3Many attachments 1.5 1 3Compact storage 2.1 1 1 9 3 9 1

Weight of Engineering Metrics

16

.8

3.2

2.4

0.3

4.8

4.5

2.4

0.8

2.4

9.6

1.6

2.4

1.9

9.8

13

.0

8.0

1.6

2.7

Weights

Engineering Metrics

Customer Require-

ments

Voice of Customer

ex. Vacuum Cleaner

Correlation;9: large 3: middle1: small

QFD matrix

Process of Integrating Environmental Impact

Environmental Load

HFC, SOX, T-N, T-P, CO2, NOX, etc

Easy-LCA ＊

・・・

Integration

Social Property Primary Production Biodiversity Human Health

・・・

LIME**

Procure-ment

Procure-ment Manufa-

cturingManufa-cturing

Distribu-tion

Distribu-tion Consum-

ptionConsum-

ptionWaste

treatmentWaste

treatment

RecyclingRecycling

Ozone Depletion

Acidifi-cation

Eutro-phication

Global Warming

Air Polution

CancerPlant Production

Aquatic Plant Decrease Malaria Dengue Fever Respiratory

Diseases

* A simplified LCA tool developed by Toshiba, incorporating a database of 30 inventory items based on the input/output table of Japan

**Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling : developed by AIST as part of a NEDO project.

Factor Description and Applications

Factor Value Factor

Environmental Impact Reduction Factor= ×

•“Factor T” is already applied to 80% of all Toshiba products.

•Factors are calculated on the basis of FY2000 models.

•Graph shows factors of products using two axes:

“Value Factor” “Environmental Impact Reduction Factor”

•Lines indicate enhancement of the value or reduction of the environmental impact.

Asian Opportunity 1: Low carbon technologies already availablei ｆ technologies commonly shared (2020)

China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500JP

N

CH

N

IND

IDN

KO

R

TH

A

XS

E

XS

A

XM

E

AU

S

NZ

L

CA

N

US

A

XE

15

XE

10

RU

S

AR

G

BR

A

XL

M

XA

F

XR

W

GH

G R

ed

uct

ion

po

ten

tial (

Mt-

CO 2

eq

)

un

de

r 1

00

US

$/t-

CO

2

50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2

20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2

0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2

X <= 0 US$/t-CO2

Huge reduction potential whenBest Available Technology applied

GHG Reduction Potential

Negative cost ！

Infrastructure　is　importantExample:　Passenger　transport　sector　can　

achieve　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 80%　reduction　in　energy　demand　via　suitable　 　　　　　　　　　

　　　　　　 land　use　&　improved　energy　efficiency　

Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance

due to proximity of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids,

lightweight designs etc.)

Energy　efficiency　improvement　

Land　use ・ Reduction　in transport　volume

Decline　in transport　volume

Grid electricity

Energ

y D

em

an

d (

Mto

e)

2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario A) 2050(scenario B)

Change in passenger transport volume

Change in passenger transport methodsChange in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities')Improved energy efficiency

Hydrogen

Solar energy generation

Biomass

Natural gas

Petroleum oil

Energy demand in 2000

北京 1975 北京 1984 北京 1991 北京 1997

東京 1927 東京 1967 東京 2001

ソウル 1920 ソウル 1960 ソウル 2006

台北 1920 台北 2003

Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities

Ｔｏｋｙｏ　＆　Ｏｓａｋａ

Ｍａｎｉｌａ

Bangkok

Beijing

Seoul

From Kaneko: 2009

Ｎｏｒｔｈ　Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎ　Ｐａｔｔｅｒｎ

Most efficient patterndaa

＊ Tokyo

＊ Hong Kong

European Pattern

＊ San Francisco

＊ Munich

50,000GDP/Capita (USD)

100%

Modal share of motorized private mode

0%

＊ Rome

＊ Beijing ＊ Manila

Asian Opportunity 2: Designing efficient Infrastructure

From IEA: 2008

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

->Di

esel

ICE

V軽

油 ->Di

esel

ICE

HEV

軽油

->Ga

soli

ne I

CEV

ガソ

リン ->

Gaso

line

ICE

HEV

ガソ

リン

->FP

. Ga

s. F

CHEV

ガソ

リン

->FP

. Ga

s. F

CEV

ガソ

リン

->FC

HEV

圧縮

水素

->FC

EV圧

縮水

素 ->FC

HEV

液体

水素

->FC

EV液

体水

素

->Di

esel

ICE

V合

成デ

ィー

ゼル ->

Dies

el I

CEHE

V合

成デ

ィー

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FP.

MeOH

FCH

EVメ

タノ

ール

->FP

. Me

OH F

CEV

メタ

ノー

ル->

FCHE

V圧

縮水

素->

FCEV

圧縮

水素 ->

FCHE

V液

体水

素->

FCEV

液体

水素

->Di

esel

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成デ

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縮水

素->

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圧縮

水素 ->

FCHE

V液

体水

素->

FCEV

液体

水素

->BE

V石

油火

力LN

G->

BEV

火力

->BE

V石

炭火

力->

BEV

平均

電源

構成

->BE

Vバ

イオ

マス

発電

->->

FCHE

V石

油火

力圧

縮水

素->

->FC

EV石

油火

力圧

縮水

素LN

G->

->FC

HEV

火力

圧縮

水素

LNG

->->

FCEV

火力

圧縮

水素

->->

FCHE

V石

炭火

力圧

縮水

素->

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EV石

炭火

力圧

縮水

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平均

電源

構成

圧縮

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平均

電源

構成

圧縮

水素

->->

FCHE

Vバ

イオ

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発電

圧縮

水素

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FCEV

バイ

オマ

ス発

電圧

縮水

素 ->FC

HEV

圧縮

水素

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EV圧

縮水

素 ->FC

HEV

液体

水素

->FC

EV液

体水

素

max mi n

副生水素電力バイオマス石炭天然ガス原油

Well

to

Whee

l CO

2[g

-CO2

/km]

排出

原単

位Technology:　Projected　Car　CO2　

Emission/km

0

50

100

150

200

250デ

ィー

ゼル

車

ディ

ーゼ

ルＨ

Ｖ

ガソ

リン

車

ガソ

リン

ＨＶ

燃料

電池

車（水

素）

()

燃料電池車ﾒﾀﾉｰﾙ

燃料

電池

車（水

素）

燃料

電池

車（水

素）

燃料

電池

車（水

素）

電気自動車

最小 最大

副生水素 電力ﾊ ｲ゙ｵﾏｽ 天然ガス原油

Wel

l to

Whe

el C

O2

[g-C

O2/

km]

排出

原単

位

※ ※ＨＶ：ハイブリッド車の省略形 電力：日本の平均電源構成※ ※燃料電池車：回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収 水素：圧縮水素を仮定

EVEV

GasolineGasoline

Hy. AugHy. Aug

FCFC

DieselDiesel

(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN 　 370km/h MAX.SPEED 　

Asian Opportunity 3:Technological

leap-fogging starts now

Electric Car:

Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.

Experiences in Mobile Phone

PLATFORM by SIM-Drive

No engine but only motors in every wheel

From Toyota to Pansonic?

Body Panels

Body Frame

Chassis

Lighter,wider, and

flexible design,

when move engine away

Let’s design customized

Asian Eco-car

NEW SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY “PLATFORM by SIM-Drive”

TANDEM WHEELSUSPENSION

↑

↑

IN WHEEL MOTOR MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEMS ARE INSERTED IN EACH 8 WHEELS

・ HIGHER EFFICIENCY・ LIGHTER WEIGHT・ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN CABIN

COMPONENT BUILT IN FRAME MAJOR COMPONENTS ARE IN 16cm HEIGHT FRAME UNDER THE FLOOR ･ LIGHTER WEIGHT ･ LOWER CENTER OF GRAVITY ･ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN

TWO WHEELS ARE 　　CONNECTED BY AN OIL PIPE

・ COMFORT・ FASTER CORNERING SPEED・ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN

22

China ？　　 India ？

＊

Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP)　　

Japan’s leap-frog 　　　　

Possibility of Asian countries’ catch-up　　　　

– How can we facilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon development?

– What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non market) that could facilitate those leap-floggings to low carbon technologies?

Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energy-depending technology track

Acceleration　of　Technology　Essential　to　Realize　a　Low　Carbon　

Society

2.38

1.72

2.79

1.70

2.36

1.25

1.26

1.62

0.85

1.41

0.78

0.65

0.45

0.68

0.61

0.53

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Germany

France

UK

Scenario B

Scenario A

Past

Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)

Energy　intensity Carbon　intensity （ excluding　CCS ）Carbon　intensity　（ CCS　equivalent ）

Considerations (1)

International decoupling competition started

IEA Energy statistics

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

Ene

rgy/

GD

P [to

e/thou

sand$

]

U.S. EU-15U.K. GermanyFrance JapanKorea

KoreaU.S.

U.K.

Japan? Japan almost

caught up by European countries

Energy Intensity

米国

New Energy competition : distributed energy

Solar Panel Capacity Growth

Germany

Spain

Japan USA

Oceania

Other Asian Countries

EuropeChina

Hong Kong

NorthAmerica

South America

J apan

500 100

PE waste (391510)PS waste (391520)PVC waste (391530)Other plastic waste (391590)

10 (in thousand t)

Material flows of plastic waste among J apan, China and Hong Kong in 2002

Asia: Tightening material linkage: cooperation

From NIES

27Embedded Water to Japan (Virtual water)accompanied with food, meat, industrial product,,

tightening of mutual dependency in natural resource usage

2002 年に穀物、肉、工業製品として日本に輸入されたバーチャルウォーター

出典： T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.

出典： T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.

世界の水資源への影響が、日本にも及ぶかもしれない。

Toward Resource Efficient-Economies in Asia and the Pacific

March 2009

Taku OHMURA3R Project Team LeaderAsian Development Bank

ADB-IGES Joint Publicationin 2008

The Report:

• Propositions:1. Current inefficient development patterns do not allow the

region to continue support high demand resource without negative impacts:

– higher price, severe degradation, growing internal competition

2. Government around the region have the ability to follow an alternative path not only to avoid such impacts but also to take advantage of opportunities to invest in infrastructure and institutes wisely:

– Strengthen competitiveness, generate jobs, provide clean and productive environment

Resource Inefficiency in Asia

• Resource efficiency has huge room to improve in developing countries – Energy consumption per GDP of PRC is 3 times higher

than US, 10 times than Japan)– In many mega-cities, non-revenue water of water supply

is around 40%– In developing countries, 75% of water intended to for

irrigation is lost to evaporation, leakage, seepage of bad management

• Fresh water is a renewable resources, but world demand for water has tripled over last half century, it increasingly emerging scares commodity due to population pressure, intensive irrigation, erratic weather pattern, and pollution caused by human activities.

Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (1)

• Asian economies is continuing its growth, even its growth rate is slowing down. Economic expansion is associated with rapid urbanization (2.21 Billon in 2040 1.56 Billion current)

• Necessary to improve services to the people, to reduce poverty (54% of population living less than $2/day poverty line or 27% for <$1.25/day)– more than 600 million people lack access to safe drinking water

and nearly 2 billion people have inadequate, or no, sanitation facilities.

• Resulting in rapidly increasing demand of resources (material, energy and water), and waste generation (solid waste, pollutants, GHG)– Asian energy consumption will grow by 112% from 2005 to 2030– GO2 emission from Asia will be doubled and

represent 36% of world emission in 42% in 2030 in comparison to 29% in 2005

– Solid waste generation will be doubled in 2050

Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (2)

-- Not only for environmental objectives, but also economic competitiveness and sustainable economic growth --

• Tackling Local Environmental Problems• Mitigating Climate Change• Ensuring Energy Security (+water/food security)• Preserving Natural Capital• Improving Economic Competitiveness• Minimizing Disposal Costs• Developing New Business Opportunities• Pursuing Social Benefits• Avoiding Resource Conflicts

Government role: Develop National Policy Framework

• Overarching Policies, such as “Circular Economy”

• National Policies to Support Material, Energy and Water Efficiency

• Targets, Monitoring, and Benchmarking

Regulatory, Economic and Financial, Information-based, Voluntary Initiatives, Substance, product or technology bans, Extended producer Responsibility and take-back, Green purchasing, Biomass policies and programs, Construction and demolition debris, Energy Audit, Energy Efficiency and Emission Standards, Energy pricing and taxation, Favorable subsidies (tax credit & favorable loan), Energy service company, Demand side management, GHG reduction project, Improving allocative efficiency, River basin planning, Water Pricing, Water market

Report examines wide range of policy instruments:

Government Role : Investing in Resource-Efficient Infrastructure

• Infrastructure investments often establish a country’s pattern of resource use for subsequent decades. If traditional low efficiency infrastructure is introduced, the economies and the sustainability of resource use will suffer in the long term. – ADB estimates: US$60 Billion/yr is needed to expand urban

services – water, sanitation, SWM, road, and mass transit.– US$8 Billion/yr over the next decade to meet MDG targets for

sanitation and safe drinking water– Investment in industry and energy sectors is continuing to

meet the increasing demands • US$6 trillion needed for energy investments by 2030

Conclusion

1. Resource efficiency for reducing energy demand is the key to shift to Low Carbon Society, front- runner to the stationary world

2. Embedding resource efficiency concept into management is indispensable to win international competition among countries and business as well

3. Fully integrated application of resource efficiency concept required: innovations in products as well as in infrastructure and institutions to activate them. Immediate action of Governments based on firm future oriented plan is indispensable

4. Much of the Asia now situates in an advantageous position to leapfrog to resource efficient society, avoiding locked–in with past inefficient developing pattern, if their current rapid and massive investment aims properly to our common future

5. Collaboration first, competition second: collaborative improvement of resource efficiency benefits widely over the countries in Asia, under tightening regional flow of materials and energy, within stationary world

Can we live with such a catastrophe?Projection of surface temperature from 1900

東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター

地球シミュレータによる２１００年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度

CCSR/NIES/FRSGC ＋ Earth Simulator

Earth System Integrated Mod Kakushin = Innovation Program (2007-12)

気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル（ ESM) であり、これの高度化

をはかる。

力学的植生モデル

Chemical process Aerozol

Land area C cycle

Land energy water cycle

Ocean circulation Marine bio-chemical process

Ice sheet

Stratosphere process

1850 22502000

0

4[PgC/yr]

2100

No　FB

With　Feed　Back

No　FB

With　FB

Estimate

*present

550ppm stabilize3.2-4 degrees

Estimate

Interim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model JAMSTEC(2007)

1000ppm stabilizeMore than 6 degrees

To stabilize climate, emission = absorption, but absorption capacity decreases while temperature rises.AlmostZero emission ultimately needed

Slow absorptionto deep see

PgC/y

Now 　 we are stepping into stationary society

Resources: Fossil F

Wastes: CO2

Products: Energy

Infrastructure

as source of resources

as sink of residuals

The earth is finite

Solar E

nergy

Moriguchi ＋SN

Thank you for your attention!

Can you see and feel the blessings of the mother nature?