Resource Demand of Pathways towards Electric Mobility ...Boron magnet replaced by electrically...

Based on project “Global Perspectives and Life Cycle Assessment of Electro Mobility - STROM Assist”

Resource Demand of Pathways towards Electric Mobility: Analyzing material demand, critical resources and emissions

World Resources Forum, Davos, 13 October 2015 Katrin Bienge Project Team: Ole Soukup, Peter Viebahn, Katrin Bienge, Michael Ritthoff

Seite Wuppertal Institut 2 Wuppertal Institute

Global Perspectives and Life Cycle Assessment of Electro mobility (STROM – Assist)

DLR – German Aerospace Center e.V. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy

DLR Institute for vehicle concepts

DLR Institute for transport research

Wuppertal Institute

Client: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Duration: Oct 2011 - Mar 2015

Aim (WP4): Material Intensity Analysis: Identifying material demand for the introduction of e-mobility in Germany (and worldwide) and depicting potentially conflicting goals


Material Intensity Analysis Objectives

Overarching objective: Identifying resource intensity for the introduction of e-mobility in Germany (and

worldwide) and depicting potentially conflicting goals

Sub-Objectives: Identifying resource intensity of individual electric vehicles and of conventional

vehicles, and comparing them

Scenarios as frameworks for calculating and projecting material requirements in Germany (and worldwide)

Recommendations regarding future support measures for the introduction of e-mobility


Material Intensity Analysis Method

Three methods for assessing cumulated material demand:

MIPS-Method („Material-Input per Service-Unit“) for system analysis: “Material intensity“ as ecological indicator of resource use across the life

cycle (incl. “material rucksacks“)

Identifying “critical“ materials, where availability or environmental hazard at extraction may threaten set extraction targets

Identifying Global Warming Potential for system analysis: GHG emissions as ecological indicator of climate impact across the life cycle

(incl. “GHG rucksacks“)

Nd? Dy?

Li?


Material Intensity Analysis Method and Approach

Approach Identifying material inventories per system component, including a targeted analysis of

critical raw materials and material losses

Linear scaling according to weight of components

Identifying material requirements (Material Footprint) and emissions (GWP)

ICE-B Combustion Gasoline

Middle Segment MPT

ICE-D Combustion Diesel

ICE-CNG Combustion Nat. Gas

HEV-B Hybrid Gasoline

PHEV20 Plugin-Hybrid

BEV Battery-electric

REEV80 Range Extender

FCEV Fuel Cell

Object of study Reference segment: middle segment of

motorized private transport (MPT), GER

Drive concepts: ICE-B, ICE-D, ICE-CNG, HEV-B, PHEV20, REEV80, BEV, FCEV

Life cycle phases: production, use, end of life

Service unit: kg/component or vehicle

Period of time: 2010, 2020, 2030 (until 2050)

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

ICEV - Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles, �darunter ICEV-B (Benzin), ICEV-D (Diesel) und ICEV-CNG (Compressed Natural Gas/Erdgas) HEV - Hybrid Electric Vehicles sind Fahrzeuge mit Verbrennungsmotor als Hauptantrieb und unterstützendem Elektroantrieb (zählt nicht zur „Elektromobilität“, da Hauptantrieb E-motor; aber gilt als „elektrifiziert“) PHEV - Plugin-Hybrid Electric Vehicles sind Fahrzeuge mit Verbrennungs- und Elektromotor, die Kurzstrecken auf einem rein elektrischen Betrieb ermöglichen (größere Entfernungen als HEV) und deren Batterie sowohl über Rekuperation als auch über das Stromnetz geladen werden können. BEV - Battery Electric Vehicles sind Fahrzeuge mit rein elektrischem Antrieb, deren Akkumulatoren über das Stromnetz und zusätzlich per Rekuperation geladen werden. REEV - Range Extender Electric Vehicle sind Fahrzeuge mit elektrischem Hauptantrieb und Verbrennungsmotor und Generator zum Nachladen der Akkumulatoren. FCEV - Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle verfügen wie batterieelektrische Fahrzeuge über einen rein elektrischen Antrieb, der seine Traktionsenergie mit Hilfe von Brennstoffzellen aus Wasserstoff gewinnt.


Material Intensity Analysis Basic assumptions for vehicle analysis

Technological development: e.g. market share of electric machine types (permanently excited synchronous machines -PSM- based on Neodymium Iron Boron magnet replaced by electrically excited asynchronous machines -ASM- without rare earth metals: ASM: 15 % from 2030 und 25 % from 2040); e.g. Lithium-Ion battery (no change in technology due to missing LCI data of 4th generation Li-sulphur or Li-air)

Weight reduction: from 2010 to 2030 (beyond 2030 constant) Energy (use phase): reduction from 2010 to 2020 (beyond constant); hydrogen

production process based on steam reformation of natural gas replaced by alkaline electrolysis after 2030

Energy mix: based on existing scenarios with increasing share of renewable energy

No replacement of system components Use phase: 10 years and 150.000 km


Material Intensity Analysis Comparing drive concepts and their direct material input

Comparing electric drive concepts across time and in the production phase Material demand per system component in 2010

Drive concepts of e-mobility

Mat

eria

l dem

and

(kg/

com

pone

nt)

Fuel Cell

Battery

Power Electronics

ICE engine

Rest of Drivetrain

Harness


Material Intensity Analysis Abiotic Material Requirements of Vehicles (Material Footprint)

Comparison of abiotic Material Demand of drive concepts across time from a life cycle perspective (per year)


Material Intensity Analysis Global Warming Potential of Vehicles

Comparison of global warming potential of drive concepts across time from a life cycle perspective (per year)


Material Intensity Analysis Abiotic Material Requirements at Scenario Level

Definition of transport scenarios for Germany

STROM-min STROM-mid (NPE)

Strom-max

Number of cars (Tremod 2012 basis)

42 mil. (2010-2050) 42 mil. (2010-2050) 42 mil. (2010-2050) no ICE- Gasoline, ICE-Diesel until 2050

Number of electric vehicles (PHEV20, REEV80, BEV)

0,1 mil. (2020) 1 mil. (2030) 2 mil. (2040) 3 mil. (2050)

1 Mio. (2020) 6 Mio. (2030) 11 Mio. (2040) 16 Mio. (2050)

1 mil. (2020) 12,6 mil. (2030) 19 mil. (2040) 25,3 mil. (2050)

Number of FCEV 0 (2020) 0 (2030) 0 (2040) 0 (2050)

0 (2020) 1,4 mil. (2030) 2,4 mil. (2040) 3,1 mil. (2050)

0 (2020) 4,2 mil. (2030) 6,3 mil. (2040) 8,4 mil. (2050)

Graph


Material Intensity Analysis Abiotic Material Requirements and GWP at Scenario Level (Germany)

Results: Abiotic material requirements and GWP of scenarios (cumulated, example: Germany) Production, use and disposal of all vehicles in the period 2011-2050 in Germany with

supply of electric drive energy based on BMU 2012, Scenario 2011 A:

Abiotic material intensity of MPT in Germany based on scenarios (2011-2050, only cars)

GWP of MPT in Germany based on scenarios (2011-2050, only cars)

Use, conventional vehicles

Use, electric vehicles (energy mix BMU 2012, Scenario 2011 A

Production

EOL/Disposal

Use, conventional vehicles

Use, electric vehicles (energy mix BMU 2012, Scenario 2011 A

Production

EOL/Disposal


Material Intensity Analysis Assessing Criticality

Assessing 11 elements: silver, gold, gallium, indium, germanium, tantalum (used in power electronics and other electronic devices), platinum, palladium (being predominant in the exhaust gas catalytic converter), lithium (battery), neodymium, dysprosium (permanent magnets of electric engines).

Criticality and Use of Elements



Results: Demand for raw materials of scenarios, example: Dy

Cumulated demand (2011-2050) for Dysprosium of MPT in Germany in different scenarios(only cars)

Cumulated demand (2011-2050) for Dysprosium of MPT worldwide in different scenarios(only cars)



Example: Rare earths – Dy, Tb

Other countries

Reserves of rare earths are distributed across few countries

Europe has no reserves, but resources

Rare earths have to be assessed in a differentiated way according to Elements (e.g. in many extraction areas of SEE high share of Nd, but low share of Dy)

Critical demand: strongly exceeds the assumed limits of one annual extraction in all scenarios (390% – 3,130% in case of Germany, 196% - 845% globally) and that one of the reserves in all German scenarios (0.1% – 1.2%) and in most global scenarios (10% – 44%).

Greenland

India

Former Soviet Union

D; ca. 5,2 kt

World; ca. 142 kt


Material Intensity Analysis Results and Recommendations

Conflicting goals – climate and resource protection: Large share of electric vehicles in future fleets may contribute to GHG-reduction, but the needed additional components are characterized by high material intensity.

Criticality: In relation to worldwide reserves, scenarios with high market penetration of electric vehicles show a high demand for specific raw materials (e.g. Li, Dy).

Recommendations (selection): Prevent scarcities: Dy-demand should drastically be reduced and Li-recycling advanced; R&D for recycling of Nd and Dy: timely availability of infrastructure and technology

Select technologies for minimized use of critical resources during product development; Dilemma: short-term competitive disadvantage (expensive materials), but long-term advantage (avoiding price shocks)

Material Input: Recycling to reduce extraction of primary raw materials; Substituting materials (however, material requirements of Glider can hardly by reduced by substitutes); Recycling-friendly production (e.g. with homogeneous materials); Reducing scrap

More intelligent use patterns / mobility and better utilization of vehicles

Vorführender

Präsentationsnotizen

Substitution at component level: e.g. ASM (less compact construction) instead of PSM Substitution at material level: e.g. R&D of alternative magnetic materials The demand for lithium is more critical than tantalum with regard to the annual extraction but reveals the same range regarding the global reserves. However, further deposits that are not yet included in the current reserves exist, which could enable a higher production in the future. Furthermore, recycling facilities are being built-up (USGS, 2013a) which may take the tension out of a possible critical demand.

Thank you for your attention!


Material Intensity Analysis MIPS method

Up-stream material flows

Life-cycle material inventory (production, processing, use, etc.)

Emissions (e. g. CO2, CH4, NOx, hazardous waste etc.)

Impact Assessment (e. g. Global Warming Potential)

Output

MIPS

LCA

Abiotic Resources

Biotic Resources

Water

Air

Translocation of soil

Unused extraction

Source: WI

While LCA usually consider abiotic depletion, MIPS (material input per service unit) also includes the economically unused extraction (and further categories).

Resource Demand of Pathways towards Electric Mobility ...Boron magnet replaced by electrically...

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