Reshaping Europe’s auto industry - Amazon Web Services · 2018-02-12 · Reshaping Europe’s...
39
Tuesday, 14 November 2017 Reshaping Europe’s auto industry: Towards clean and smart mobility FISITA WORLD AUTOMOTIVE SUMMIT 2017 GENEVA Erik Jonnaert ACEA Secretary General
Transcript of Reshaping Europe’s auto industry - Amazon Web Services · 2018-02-12 · Reshaping Europe’s...
Tuesday, 14 November 2017
Reshaping Europe’s auto industry:Towards clean and smart mobility
FISITA WORLD AUTOMOTIVE SUMMIT 2017GENEVA
Erik JonnaertACEA Secretary General
ACEA MEMBERS
12.6 million Europeans work in the automotive sector
3.3 million jobs in automotive manufacturing
€396 billion in tax revenues (EU15)
€50.1 billion in R&D spending, largest private investor
€90 billion positive net trade contribution
KEY FIGURES ABOUT THE INDUSTRY
3
4
What are the challenges?
TRENDS REDEFINING THE AUTO INDUSTRY
5
People Profit Planet
Demographicchanges
Globalisation versusdecentralisation
Environmentalchallenges
New customer profilesHarmonised standards
versus tailor-made solutionsAir quality and climate change
• Consumer profiles changingo Older versus younger population
• Global population growtho Expected to reach 9 billion by 2050
• Urbanisationo Need for solutions that respond to increased
urbanisation: from 3.5 to 5 billion in 2030!
6
People: Demographic changesWHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?
People
Profit
Planet
Presenter
Presentation Notes
• Cost and profitabilityo €50.1 billion invested in automotive R&D annuallyo Suppliers offer a range of solutions – but at what price?o Overcapacity – low profitability in Europe
• Economies of scaleo Finding balance between globalisation and local needso Need for globalised standards and regulations
• Uncertainty following Brexit
7
Profit:WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?
People
Profit
Planet
• Climate changeo COP21 – UN aim to limit total warming to 2.0°Co EU aim of 30% GHG reduction by 2030 compared
to 2005 for non-ETS sectorso 60% GHG reduction by transport sector in 2050
compared to 1990
• Air qualityo Especially important in urban areaso Addressing NOX & particles
8
Planet: Environmental challengesWHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES?
People
Profit
Planet
• Challenges = opportunities for innovation
• Main focus areas:Smart & safe mobility New mobility solutions Clean mobility
• Objective: a cleaner, safer and smarter mobility ecosystem
INNOVATION
9
Connectivity and automationSmart & safe mobility
10
11
SOCIETAL BENEFITS
Improved road safety 90% of accidents today occur due to human error
Decarbonisation ITS can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 20%
Increased traffic efficiency Smoother traffic flows, less congestion
Improved access to mobility Elderly, people with disabilities, those in remote areas
Wider economic impact Increased productivity, efficient transport systems
“Drops me off, finds a parking spot and parks on its own”
“Allows me to multi-task and to be productive during my ride”
“Switches to self-driving mode during traffic”
12
TOP 3: WHAT CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTING
Source: BCG analysis, consumer survey August 2015
13
SMARTER MEANS SAFER
Connectivity and automation
Safer,more efficient
mobility
Intelligent infrastructure
AUTO INDUSTRY PRIORITIES
14
• Legal/policy framework needs to be coherent and consistent o Definition of automated vehicleso Clarification of type-approval requirements
• Access to vehicle data for third-party services
• Cybersecurity
• Communication technology choice and spectrum allocation
• Cross-border testingo Essential to test connected and automated driving applications on a
cross-border basis, tests should mimic real road conditions across Europe
Innovation and disruptionNew mobility solutions
15
MORE CONSUMER ORIENTED
16
• Addressing the diversity of consumer profileso Older Youngero Urban Ruralo Low budget High budget
• Consumer segmentationwill require:o Diversification of
vehicle portfolio o Development of
tailored mobility services
Younger
Rural
High budgetLow budget
Older
Urban
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Let’s explore these common trends Starting with the importance of focusing on the consumer first: what does she or he wants or needs? Consumers have a range of profiles: Older – or those with families customers may want more automation Younger customers may more connectivity ‘Environmentally-minded’ customers may become more numerous Urban users may decide that ownership is no longer a necessity Diverging tastes and budgets mean that the market may continue segmenting into ‘premium’ and ‘economy’ classes All consumers require some form of mobility Industry must respond to this need across the full range of profiles
NEW BUSINESS MODELS
17
• Offering new mobility solutions, especially in an urban contexto New models of ownership, eg car sharing: Car2Go, DriveNow, Greenwheels
o On-demand mobility solutionso Intermodal mobility solutionso Innovative logistic concepts
• Manufacturers are evolving from being ‘just’ producers of vehicles to providers of integrated mobility solutions
Presenter
Presentation Notes
COOPERATION AND DISRUPTION
18
• Traditional automotive business models will changeo Auto industry has to establish new alliances with non-automotive
partners in the telecom and IT sectors …o … and develop innovative mobility solutions around new
technologies together with other players
• Increasing convergence between sectors• Disruption will bring great change to our industry
o Digital skills: will need engineers specialised in softwaredevelopment, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and robotics
o Not only competition from other world economies (US, Japanand China), but also non-traditional players (large IT companies)
Towards low- & zero-emission vehiclesClean mobility
19
CLEAN MOBILITY
20
Clean mobility is about addressing two issues:
• Air qualityo Pollutant emissionso Substances like carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC),
oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particles
• Climate changeo CO2 emissionso Causes increase in average global temperature
CO2 VERSUS AIR QUALITY POLICY
21
• Over the past years, EU policy focussed on reducing CO2o Resulting in the most stringent CO2 targets for cars in the worldo Policy makers have prioritised diesel for decades
• Now, local air quality issues have become main priority, but these require different technical and non-technical solutions
o Solutions to tackle both, but costly and technology trade-offs must be madeo Europe needs a more coordinated approach for air quality and climate change
WLTP and RDEAir quality
22
IMPROVING AIR QUALITY
23
• WLTPo More rigorous laboratory test for measuring pollutants and CO2 from carso Provides data that better match the on-road performance of vehicleso From September 2017 WLTP officially applies to new types of cars
IMPROVING AIR QUALITY
24
• Real driving emissions (RDE) test o Measures pollutant emissions emitted
by cars while driven on the roado Comes on top of lab testingo Came into effect in September 2017
• RDE-compliant Euro 6 vehicleso Diesel cars now fitted with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and/or
lean-NOx aftertreatment systemso Significant improvements on NOx emissions of Euro 6 vehicles o Emit very low pollutant emissions on the road under new RDE test
Powertrain optionsClimate change
25
ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAINS
26
• Move to alternatively-powered vehicles will be crucial
• Yet, they still only represent small share of car sales
• Industry is investing significantly in alternative powertrains
• Market uptake remains low!
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Industry addressing the challenge Improving battery technology Extending the range and speed of ECVs Reducing the cost for consumers Lowering cost of batteries Making ECVs more attractive Finding better balance between battery size and internal space Expanding availability and choice
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM GOVERNMENT?
27
• Consumer acceptance and market uptake depend on:
Necessary investments in recharging and refuelling infrastructure
Supportive schemes and incentivesto stimulate APV sales• Including fleet renewal
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Infrastructure Directive on Alternative Fuel Infrastructure (DAFI) already set clear objectives for national governments Implementation has been poor to date Incentives Often not sustainable in the long run (Dutch and Danish examples) Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, and especially their monetary value, differ greatly across Europe Single European market for APVs does simply not exist today Comment Paul:�“Government action needed, but also existing fuel and energy providers need to start considering to do more. How will fuel suppliers react to electrification? Liquid fuels, gaseous fuels and fast charge electricity at filling stations?”
COMBUSTION ENGINE
28
• So, improving internal combustion engine and diesel technology will continue to play a major role in future CO2 reductionso ICE needed as a ‘bridge’ technology
• RDE-compliant Euro 6 diesel cars play important role in (gradual) transition to low-carbon vehicleso Abrupt move away from diesel will risk meeting CO2 targets
• Sustainable biofuels: lower CO2 from existing engines using today’s infrastructure
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Not a question of APVs versus diesel Manufacturers need to leverage mix of powertrain options to reduce CO2 Increasingly important role for APVs, but mix will continue to include diesel
Keeping mobility affordableCompetitiveness & decarbonisation
29
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Of course, it’s not just a question of providing smart and sustainable mobility, it’s also about providing affordable mobility solutions! Time for a “fact-based discussion”* on the link between competitiveness and decarbonisation. * one of FISITA’s objectives for this summit!
Competitiveness• Automotive industry one of the most regulated sectors in Europe Around 80 EU Directives Over 70 international UNECE regulatory agreements
• Regulations relating to safety, the environment, type approval of vehicles and taxation have already added significantly to the industry’s costs
• For example, the 2021 CO2 target is estimated to impose an additional
30
Presenter
Presentation Notes
2021 CO2 target Car prices have, over the same period, increased only in line with inflation
Competitiveness• Between 1998-2011, regulatory requirements and
other improvements (such as ESP, airbags and weight reduction) increased production costs by 3-4% per year
• More recent regulations are expected to add a further 24% to the manufacturing costs of a car by 2020: 2021 CO2 target Euro 6 with RDE New noise limit eCall
31
Keeping mobility affordableTowards a more effective approach
32
Need for an integrated approach• Current system focuses on new vehicle
technology alone
• A more effective approach will look at the full fleet and how it is used
• Not only by reducing emissions from new vehicles, but also by focusing on factors influencing emissions during use of the vehicle
33
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Not only by reducing emissions from new vehicles, but also by focusing on factors influencing emissions throughout the lifetime of the vehicle
More balanced across modes• Relative costs of reducing carbon
emissions must be similar and proportionate across all: Industry sectors Modes of transport
• CO2 reductions should be balanced between sectors covered by the ETS (the EU emissions trading system) and non-ETS sectors, across transport modes, and in Europe versus the rest of the world
34
Presenter
Presentation Notes
By 2020, average emissions of new passenger cars will need to be reduced by 39% compared to their 2005 level 10% reduction expected from other non-ETS sectors (including buildings, agriculture and waste) 21% reduction expected from ETS sectors (such as power stations and combustion plants) during the same timeframe
Delivering clean and smart mobilityConclusions
35
CONCLUSION
36
• Major trends reshaping mobility and the auto industryo Demographic changeso Globalisationo Environmental challenges
• Main focus areas of innovationo Smart & safe mobilityo New mobility solutionso Clean mobility
• Creating a new eco system for mobility in Europe
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Main drivers of innovation: Decarbonisation Low and zero emissions vehicles Electrification > new battery technology Low carbon fuels Digitalisation Connected vehicles Autonomous driving vehicles Tailor-made solutions Urban areas <-> rural areas Motorways <-> cities
CONCLUSION
37
• Key challengeso Affordability of new (smart and clean) vehicle technologyo Consumer uptake and social acceptanceo Regulatory environment to enable deployment of these new technologies
• Mobility should stay affordableo Impact of regulatory frameworko Range of factors contributing to CO2 emissions, besides vehicle technologyo Need to link EU long-term climate objectives to the reality of the marketo More effective CO2 policy should also safeguard competitiveness
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Key challenges Affordability of new technology Example: cost of battery > cost of EVs Impact on market uptake Cost of recharging infrastructure EG fuel-cell vehicles Cost of digital infrastructure EG roll out of 5G for connectivity Consumer uptake and social acceptance Need to do more to improve consumer information and education Driver training How to use AND when to use vehicles Impact of autonomous vehicles, eg on: Truck drivers Taxi drivers
38
•Exciting times :o the future is yours
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
@ACEA_euwww.ACEA.be
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
