Researching public opinion.Ethics (WAPOR Code).

Election polls

L 11+12

Ing. Jiří Šnajdar 2014

Researching public opinion. Qualitative and quantitative methods.

“Formal” methodologies for measuring public opinion are usually classified into quantitative and qualitative approaches. Generally, formal methods are more systematic ways of ascertaining public opinion.

Formal methods are likely to be conducted by scholars who understand their proper—and improper—uses and who are less likely than politicians or other non-scholars to misuse them or misinterpret them as standing for mass public opinion when they do not.

Quantitative methods involve numbers—and usually statistics. Most public research is conducted quantitatively, almost always by surveys.

However, much research on public opinion is conducted qualitatively.

Although qualitative research methodologies tend to be less important in academic research, they are often extremely important when politicians and candidates conduct research for their own purposes.

Methodologies

Advanced Statistical Methods: When analyzing survey results, most polling firms employ simple percentages and crosstabs.

But we go beyond these basic analytic tools to get more useful information out of the data.

Regression analysis, CART and CHAID, and cluster and factor analysis are a few of the statistical techniques that we use to paint a clearer picture of your target universe.

CART is based on landmark mathematical theory introduced in 1984 by four world-renowned statisticians at Stanford University and the University of California at Berkeley. 

These methods are valuable tools to identifying what drives the image of your candidate or company, to segment target groups that are most important for communication, and for determining the psychographic profile of your voters or customers.

CHAID is a type of decision tree technique, based upon adjusted significance testing (Bonferroni testing). The technique was developed in South Africa and was published in 1980 by Gordon V. Kass, who had completed a PhD thesis on this topic. CHAID can be used for prediction (in a similar fashion to regression analysis, this version of CHAID being originally known as XAID) as well as classification, and for detection of interaction between variables.

Focus Group Research:

Focus groups are a method for study that allow us to perform in-depth listening and analysis. They are used to understand what drives personal opinions and gain insights on how respondents view an issue, candidate or product.

Online Surveys:

While telephone surveys remain the highest standard when researching the general public there are projects where web surveys are an effective alternative. More targeted studies among certain demographics or using membership lists are examples where internet surveys provide an

accurate alternative.

Quantitative Traditional Telephone Surveys Web ResearchExecutive One-on-One Interviewing Online Ad Testing Tracking studies Executive Interviews Advanced Analytics: CHAID, Cluster, Factor, Regression Micro-Targeting and Predictive ModelingInternational and Multilingual Research

Qualitative

Traditional Focus Groups Online GroupsIn-depth One-on-One InterviewingAd Testing sessionsOn-site InterviewingDial TechnologyOpinion Leader GroupsInternational and Multilingual Research

INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE - IRI

IRI believes that a well informed citizenry is paramount to democratic reform. Qualitative and quantitative research are pivotal to modern societies, and demystifying the process of research to ensure broader use and increased public trust in the results is a key goal of IRI’s public survey research.

Public opinion research is a crucial instrument in IRI’s efforts to make political parties more responsive to voters, assist elected officials at all levels of government in improving their service to citizens.

IRI sponsors public opinion research in many of the countries where it works.

Depending on the circumstances in a specific country, IRI uses a variety of public opinion methods.

These methods include public opinion polls (quantitative research), focus groups (qualitative research), and occasionally, more specialized techniques such as exit polling, oversampling, panels and tracking polls.

Polling is an excellent means of determining public opinion.

The safety of aggregate, anonymous data via public opinion research will provide a legitimate means by which people can voice their thoughts and opinions, and by which they can hold their leaders accountable to the priorities and interests of constituents.

Comprehensive nonpartisan public opinion research is the most effective method of determining the concerns and needs of voters.

When done correctly, public opinion research plays an essential role in determining the success and failure of government, opposition and party communication with constituents. It is the only proven method of determining the level of public understanding of the roles and powers of institutions and newly-implemented legislation. In its programs involving public opinion research, IRI complies with professional standards in the industry.

All polls are essentially snapshots in time and while IRI has high standards and exercises careful oversight over its public opinion research, opinions are continually evolving and developing.

IRI’s public opinion research is done to help strengthen political and civic institutions, such as political parties and nongovernmental organizations, IRI does not always make public the results of its polls and focus groups. IRI follows industry standards for minimum disclosure.

New approaches to researching public opinion

Public opinion research is increasingly employed by politicians not just during election periods, but also to ensure public backing of important policy proposals.

The Commission's revised strategy on communication seeks to introduce new methods of using the Eurobarometer, as public opinion research adapts to new communication technologies.

The role of opinion polling in European policymaking gained in importance even before European elections were held. As early as 1970, the Commission started to sponsor public opinion surveys in the member states of the European Community.

Eurobarometer has helped to raise awareness of what European citizens think, and has become a point of reference for EU-wide public opinion.

World Association for Public Opinion Research

WAPOR Code of Ethics

1. The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), in fulfilling its main objective to advance the use of science in the field of public opinion research and in recognition of its obligations to the public, hereby prescribes principles of ethical practices for the guidance of its members, and a framework of professional standards that should be acceptable to users of research and to the public at large.

2. In an increasingly complex world, social and economic planning is more and more dependent upon public opinion reliably studied. The general public is the source of much of this information.

Consequently, members of WAPOR acknowledge their obligations to protect the public from misrepresentation and exploitation in the name of research.

At the same time, WAPOR affirms the interdependence of free expression of opinion and the researcher’s freedom to conduct public opinion research.

3. Members of WAPOR recognize their obligations both to the profession they practice and to those who provide support for this practice to adhere to the basic standards of scientific investigation.

4. This code defines professional ethics and practices in the field of public opinion research. Adherence to this code is deemed necessary to maintain confidence that researchers in this field are bound by a set of sound and basic principles based on experience gained over many years of development.

Election Polling

One of the most prominent applications of survey research is election polling.

In election years, much of the polling by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press focuses on people’s engagement in the election, opinions about the candidates, the campaign and voter preferences.

Even in the so-called “off years,” many of our polls include questions about party identification, past voting behavior or voter reactions to events.

The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American think tank based in Washington, D.C.

Election Polling

Pre-election polling provides one of the few times when pollsters can assess the validity of their work by measuring how well their polls match election outcomes.

But, polls designed to measure voter intentions serve up some special challenges.

How do you identify which respondents will actually vote? Are respondents honest when they tell us for whom they intend to vote? How will undecided voters make their final decisions?

Election Polling

The election polls attract a great deal of attention for their ability to predict the outcome of elections, their most important function is to help journalists and citizens understand the meaning of the campaign and the election.

Polls help to explain, among other things, what issues are important, how candidate qualities may affect voters’ decisions, and how much support there is for particular policy changes.

One of the most difficult aspects of conducting election polls is determining whether a respondent will actually vote in the election.

Election Polling

More respondents say they intend to vote than actually will cast a ballot. As a consequence, pollsters do not rely solely upon a respondent’s stated intention when classifying a person as likely to vote or not.

Most pollsters use a combination of questions that measure intention to vote, interest in the campaign and past voting behavior.

Different pollsters use different sets of questions to help identify likely voters.

Election Polling

Determining voter preference among the candidates running for office would appear to be a relatively simple task: just ask them who they are going to vote for on Election Day.

In fact, differences in how this question is asked and where it is placed in the questionnaire can affect the results.

While most voters have usually made up their minds and are not likely to be affected by how the question is posed, many people have given less thought to the campaign or are genuinely ambivalent about the choices.

Election Polling

The good track record of final pre-election polls does not mean that all pre-election polls are reliable.

Polls conducted early in an election season should be taken as snapshots in time, and obviously cannot capture the impact of the campaign and events to come.

This publication examines presidential election polls conducted well in advance of the election and attempts to gauge how predictive they are.

Election Polling

Polls are a staple of every election year. Dozens of private firms, media outlets and academic institutions published election poll results during the 2012 race for president and Congress.

But reading election poll results can sometimes be confusing, especially if you're not familiar with the terminology and methodology.

Election polls results can seem like just a jumble of unintelligible numbers, but they are useful in gauging public opinion at a specific point in time.

Election Polling

Here are a handful of important questions to ask in order to read and understand election poll results.

Who Conducted the Election Poll?

This is perhaps the most important question to ask before delving into any election poll results.

Was it a university? A media outlet? A private polling firm? The polling institute must have a reliable track record.

Election Polling

Some of the most prominent and reliable firms that publish election poll results are Gallup, Ipsos, Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, and media outlets including CNN, ABC News and The Washington Post.

Be extremely skeptical of polls paid for by political parties or campaigns. They can be easily skewed to favor their candidates.

Election Polling

Margin of Error

The term margin of error seems pretty self-explanatory.

Election polls survey only a small portion, a statistical sample, of the population. So the margin of error is used to describe a pollster's confidence that his survey of the smaller sample reflects the sentiment of the entire population.

The margin of error is expressed by a percentage.

Election Polling

For example, a 2012 Gallup poll measuring support for President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney sampled 2,265 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The poll found that Romney had support from 47 percent, and Obama had support from 45 percent.The more people who are polled, the smaller the margin of error will be.

Election Polling

Are the Questions Fair?

Most reputable polling firms will disclose the exact wording of the questions they ask. Be skeptical of election poll results that are published without disclosing the questions. The wording can without question cause errors or introduce bias into polls.

If the wording of a poll seems to paint a particular political candidate in a harsh or negative light, it is likely a "push poll." Push polls are designed not to measure public opinion but to influence voter opinion.

Election Polling

Pay close attention to the order in which the questions were asked, too. Be cautious about election poll results that come from a survey asking respondents about controversial issues just before asking them their opinion about a particular candidate.

Registered Voters or Likely Voters?

Pay attention to whether the survey asks whether the respondents are registered to vote, and if so are they likely to vote. Election poll results based on a sample of adults are less trustworthy than those based on either registered or likely voters.

Election Polling

While polls based on responses from people who say they're like to vote are believed to be more accurate, pay attention to how close they are conducted before an election.

Many voters can't say with much certainty whether they will likely vote in an election six months from now. But if they're asked two weeks before an election, that's a different story.

Explains the Pew Research Center:

"One of the most difficult aspects of conducting election polls is determining whether a respondent will actually vote in the election. More respondents say they intend to vote than actually will cast a ballot.As a consequence, pollsters do not rely solely upon a respondent’s stated intention when classifying a person as likely to vote or not. Most pollsters use a combination of questions that measure intention to vote, interest in the campaign and past voting behavior. Different pollsters use different sets of questions to help identify likely voters."

Thank you for your attention.