1 Cues, Questions, Advance Organizers Generating & Testing Hypotheses.
Research Questions, Hypotheses, and Variables
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Transcript of Research Questions, Hypotheses, and Variables
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Choosing a Research QuestionSpecifying an Explanation
Hypotheses
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The Research ProcessDefine and Refine
Research QuestionLocate ResearchCollect Important
InformationWrite the
Literature ReviewMake Me Proud
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Choosing a Research QuestionConcerned with the initial steps of an
empirical research projectFirst step is to choose a research question
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Choosing a Research QuestionPolitical scientists investigate diverse
phenomena.Research question may focus on
The political behavior of individuals, groups, institutions, or political jurisdictions
Descriptive, factual, or normative knowledgeTwo or more variables
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Choosing a Research QuestionResearch questions may originate from
Personal observation or experienceWritings of othersInterest in some broader social theoryPractical concerns like career objectives
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Central Research Question
Define Your Research Question-What are you researching?-What do you seek to accomplish?
Refine Your Research Question-Is your question too broad? Too vague?-Is there an abundance of information?-Too much information? Too Little?
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Specifying an ExplanationHow are two or more variables related?
A variable is a concept with variation. An independent variable is thought to
influence, affect, or cause variation in another variable.
A dependent variable is thought to depend upon or be caused by variation in an independent variable.
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Specifying an ExplanationVariables can have many different kinds of
relationships:Multiple independent variables usually neededAntecedent variablesIntervening variablesAn arrow diagram can map the relationships
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Quantitative ResearchVariables
(Attributes)Independent
VariableDependent VariableControl VariableHypotheses (not to
be proven!)Null Hypotheses
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Specifying an ExplanationCausal relationships are the most interesting.A causal relationhip has three components:
X and Y covary.The change in X precedes the change in Y.Covariation between X and Y is not a
coincidence or spurious.We can state relationships in hypotheses.
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HypothesesSix characteristics of a good hypothesis:
1. Should be an empirical statement that formalizes an educated guess about a phenomenon that exists in the political world
2. Should explain general rather than particular phenomena
3. Logical reason for thinking that the hypothesis might be confirmed by the data
4. Should state the direction of the relationship5. Terms describing concepts should be
consistent with the manner of testing6. Data should be feasible to obtain and would
indicate if the hypothesis is defensible
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The Hypothesis
Makes a predictionMost research questions, however, formulate
more than one hypothesis. Attendance, along with solid study habits and
ample rest could also influence course grades.
Yet, the focus is typically on the null hypothesis.
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Null HypothesisA hypothesis of no
relationshipProve or disprove
the null hypothesis to show support or opposition to your actual hypothesis.
Why?
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HypothesesHypotheses must specify a unit of analysis:
Individuals, groups, states, organizations, etc…Most research uses hypotheses with one unit
of analysis.Need to be able to identify these to be
successful
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Clarity In Research
Be precise in determining unit(s) of analysis.
How will you analyze? Why are you choosing to analyze this way?
Choose the proper level of analysis.
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Ecological FallacyA higher level of
data trying to explain a lower level of behavior.
Too much generalizing.
Ex: Income level in a community
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ReductionismA smaller level of
data trying to explain a higher level of behavior.
Ex: Steve Bartman caused the Chicago Cubs to miss the World Series in 2003.
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SpuriousnessA false
relationship; a relationship that appears but is not.
Other factors often enter
Ex: Children who listen to classical music perform better in school.
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HypothesesDefinitions of concepts should be
ClearAccuratePreciseInformative
Otherwise, reader will not understand concept correctly.
Many of the concepts used in political science are fairly abstract—careful consideration is necessary.
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What is a Variable?Simply, something that varies.Specifically, variables represent persons or
objects that can be manipulated, controlled, or merely measured for the sake of research.
Variation: How much a variable varies. Those with little variation are called constants.
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Examples of VariablesIn the recent GOP
sweep of the House and Senate, variables (or factors) that may have played a part would include:
Voter TurnoutParty Message# of Open SeatsRedistricting# of IncumbentsWellstone Funeral
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Independent VariablesThese variables are ones that are more or
less controlled. Scientists manipulate these variables as they
see fit.They still vary, but the variation is relatively known or taken into account.
Often there are many in a given study.
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Dependent VariablesDependent variables are not controlled or
manipulated in any way, but instead are simply measured or registered.
These vary in relation to the independent variables, and while results can be predicted, the data is always measured.
There can be any number of dependent variables, but usually there is one to isolate reason for variation.
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Independent V. DependentIntentionally
manipulatedControlledVary at known rateCause
Intentionally left aloneMeasuredVary at unknown rateEffect
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Example: What affects a student’s arrival to class?Variables:Type of School
Liberals Arts v. UniversityType of Student
Athlete? Gender? GPA?Time
Bedtime, Waking, ArrivalMode of Transportation
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Variables
The Independent Variable (IV) causes (causal relationship) the Dependent Variable (DV).
Example:Students who attend class earn higher course
grades.IV: Class attendanceDV: Course grades
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ExampleAn investigator had 60 subjects watch a
videotaped re-enactment of a bank robbery. Half of the subjects were asked by a police investigator to recall the event, while the remaining subjects were interviewed by a police investigator while they were hypnotized.
Independent Variable:
Dependent Variable:
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Example 2To test a new voice feature in a cockpit design a flight
simulator was used. The simulator was programmed to give visual readings of flight information, or to give visual and auditory (voice) readings of flight information. All test pilots were put through a simulated emergency landing procedure, but were randomly assigned to the visual, or visual and auditory conditions. Flight experts rated each pilot’s performance in the simulator on a scale of 1 (very poor) to 10 (excellent).
Independent Variable:
Dependent Variable: