Research Proposal. Motanya
-
Upload
kirui-bore-paul -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Research Proposal. Motanya
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
1/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
ABSTRACT
Although many are the problems that Kenya is experiencing, social and human capital
deterioration, a declining economy and an institutional crisis are a reflection of Kenyas
increasing complication of socioeconomic situation. The country has further been hit hard by the
increase in its population size and according to the 2009 national census, it reached 38.6 million;
an increase of a million people annually. This made Kenya to appear among the most populated
countries of Africa after Nigeria and Gabon etc. As a result of this rapid increase in Kenyas
population, the levels of economic growth went down drastically for the period between 1969
and 2009 as indicated in the World Banks annual reports on economic development and growth
indicators for the year 2009.
In order to find out how this big rate of population growth affects the countrys economy, we
undertook a study and conducted a research on the main effect of population increase on the
economic growth and development of Kenya. The main objective of this study was to help the
country devise appropriate mechanisms towards controlling the rate of population growth as a
measure of improving its economic growth levels. This is in line with the implementation of the
millennium development goals (MDGs) as well as Vision 2030 even as the country aspires to
implement Agenda 4 and alleviate poverty by the year 2015.
Page1
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
2/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1.1. Background
Economic growth can be defined as the quantitative increase in a countrys income or output
accompanied by expansion in the countrys labor force, consumption, capital and volume of
trade. Economic development, on the other hand, can be said to encompass both the quantitative
and qualitative changes in the economy of a country. For a country to realize any meaningful
growth or development of its economy, it is inevitable for that country to take precautions on the
determinants of economic growth. Economic growth and development of a country may be
measured by the use of measures like Gross National Product (GNP), Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), GNP per capita, social indicators and welfare. Thus it is common knowledge that
economic growth of any country is a function of growth of population in that particular country.
A change in population growth can bring about changes in any of the measurements of economic
growth and development. It will be paramount to note here that for any country to achieve
meaningful economic growth it will be paramount for it to be able to control its population
growth using any means possible.
Kenyas population has been growing steadily at a rate of 3.5% p.a. over the last three
decades. For instance, the population figures according to the 2009 national census indicated that
Kenya had a total of 38.6 million people up from the 1999 figure of 28 million people and the
15.5 million people according to the 1979 national census. This thus means that Kenyas
population grows by at least 10 million people every decade translating to a million increase p.a.
(KNBS, 2010).
One of the main pillars of Kenyas vision 2030 is the economic pillar whose main aim is to
maintain a sustainable economic growth of 10% p.a. over the next 25 years. The social pillar of
vision 2030 maintains that by 2030 Kenya will be a just and cohesive society enjoying equitable
social development in a clean and secure environment. The stated pillars cannot be achieved
with a 10 million increase in population over a decade. It is therefore clear that a lot will need to
be done in the governments efforts to analyze the negative effects of population growth on the
economic growth of the country. Pressure on the available resources like water, social amenities,
infrastructural facilities and hospitals are among the most common effects of a rapidly growing
population. The pressure on the available resources leads to environmental pollution, a case in
Page 2
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
3/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
hand, pollution of the Nairobi River. The pollution of resources may result to affirmative action
from environmental organizations like NEMA, UNEP etc in their efforts to avert the problems.
According to the data provided on the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS, 2010)
website, the population trends in Kenya from the year 1969-2009 has been on an increasing rate
as shown by the high fertility rates in the country coupled with a reduction in the mortality rates
of the country.
From the national income model, per capita income is a function of population size i.e.
Per capita income (GDP Per Capita) = National Income
Total PopulationTherefore, an increase in population holding national income constant (since majority of the
people are children and old aged who are mostly dependants) will mean that per capita income
will diminish. This results to high levels of poverty witnessed in the district and the country as a
whole.
According to the 2009 national census, majority of Kenyans, approximately 67.7% are
those living in rural areas and 32.4% in urban areas. From the findings, it is clear that the rural
areas in Kenya are the most densely populated. This can be attributed to the low levels of
education of the residents, lack of knowledge and information, archaic beliefs and traditions and
high rates of unemployment experienced in the rural areas. These result to high levels of poverty
coupled with low living standards experienced in rural areas of Kenya, pressure on land leading
to subdivisions of land into smaller pieces (for instance, in Kisii) poor nutrition and lack of
health facilities are other problems associated with this problem of increasing population growth
rate (KNBS).
According to UNs program of poverty eradication in Africa, to realize a 10% growth rate in the
economy, the country should be able to control its population growth rate up to around 1.5% p.a.
Kenya should at no exception try to adopt these guidelines in order to achieve its vision 2030s
economic and social pillars.
A research gap exists in the Kenyan case in terms of the policies laid down to control population
growth since the policies are not stringent and strict as they are elsewhere. Owing to the fact that
high population growth rate affect Kenyas GDP, Kenya should therefore adopt the policy of a
maximum number of children to be sired like China. If this is done, vision 2030 can be a reality.
This research, therefore, aims at establishing the relationship between high population growth
and the decline economic growth in Kenya.
Page 3
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
4/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
1.2. Problem statement
It is clear that high population growth is not good for any country as it has many negative
effects associated with it when compared to the positive effect that accompanies it. An analysis
of the population trends in Kenya since the year 1969 shows that Kenyas population has
increased geometrically whereas the living standards of people decrease or continue o
deteriorate. For instance, Kenyas poverty index has been on the increase from the year 1969 to
2009 (World Bank). Kenyas minister for planning and national development, Hon Peter Anyang
Nyongo, while addressing a United Nations meeting in New York stated categorically that rapid
population growth in Kenya was impacting negatively on its economic growth. He said that rapid
population growth in the country had seen increased unemployment due to increase in the labor
force, increase in demand for education and increased pressure on both financial resources and
health services (Republic of Kenya, 2005).
It is therefore clear that the government must have slowed down in its efforts towards the
achievement the goal of poverty alleviation in Kenya as the millennium development goal
number two states. The 38.6 million figure of the 2009 national census indicates that Kenya
indeed over the past one decade has not succeeded in its efforts (if any) to curb the problem of
population growth. The main reason for the high growth in population in the rural areas is the
lack of knowledge and education on the ways and methods of population control and the benefits
of having manageable families right from the villages. It is very clear that the government of
Kenya has failed in its duty of educating the public on the impending danger caused by high
population growth.
This research aims at enlightening the public (especially people from the district of study)
on the consequences of increased population vis avis their living standards, poverty levels and
economic growth. At the end of the research, various recommendations will be proposed to the
ministry of planning, ministry of housing and the ministry of sports and youth affairs as well the
Kenyan government on the public enlightenment about family planning and population control.
These recommendations will be of great help to the government in making planning decisions
and budgetary allocation decisions. For instance, a larger proportion of the budget should be
devolved to those counties that experience high population growth rates to aid them in improving
their standards of living. Knowledge of the negative effects of high population growth rates on
Page 4
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
5/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
the economic growth of the country will be of great help both to planners and the policy
designers and implementers.
1.3. Research Questions
This study will aim at answering the following important questions;
i) What is the nature of the relationship between population growth rate and the
economic growth experienced in Kenya?
ii) What strategies can the Kenyan government put in place in order to control its vastly
growing population?
1.4. Objectives of the study
This study will aim at achieving the following objectives;
i) To find out the effect of population growth on the economic growth of Kenya.
ii) To determine the various recommendations to policy planners and decision makers on
how to control population growth and enhance economic growth in the Kenya.
1.5. Significance/ justification of the study
This study will be aiming at bringing about a number of social, scientific and
developmental significance both to the district of study and the Kenyan nation as a whole.
Socially, knowledge of the effects of high population growth rates on the economic growth in the
district and the country will help it succeed in laying down strategies that will reduce social
crimes through creation of more employment opportunities. This will in turn lead to
improvement of the living standards of the people living in the district. Increased security will
boost GNP of the area through increased production levels. Of important significance will be
also the devising of a model that will relate the level of economic growth with the rate of
population increase in the district. The model will give a limelight towards the achievement of
the economic pillar of Kenyas vision 2030. This study will also be important in the attainment
and implementation of Agenda 4 and vision 2030 mainly in the district of study.
In regional terms, the study will impact positively on them education of the residents of
the district since the recommendations from the study will be of help in educating the people on
the fundamentality of having manageable sizes of families. The Kenyan government can also use
the recommendation to educate its citizens in its efforts to ensure that population growth rate in
the country is checked for the benefit of the citizens and the growth and development of the
economy. Adoption of the one child policy applicable and successful in China will aid the
Page 5
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
6/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
government of Kenya in its efforts to check population growth rates, hence economic growth can
easily be realized in the district and the nation at large.
1.6. Scope and Limitation of the study
This study will encompass a wide scope ranging from classroom work to secondary data
collection and the analyzing the data, presentation of the analyzed data and the recording and
storage of data.
The choice of this topic is very timely and significant since Kenya is in its earlier stages
of vision 2030 implementation and also the Agenda 4. The recommendations from the study will
be of great help to the government in timely planning and implementation of policies aimed at
making Agenda 4 and vision 2030 a reality especially vis avis the district of study.
A wide range of research materials will be available ranging from written sources and written
journals and articles (secondary sources). However, a number of limitations may be inevitable in
the course of this study. Some of them may include my level of expertise of which will be
overcome by doing wide and broad reading so as to widen my expertise level. Time and financial
constraints will also present a challenge to this study. This will be overcome by relying mostly
on secondary sources for data collection and analysis.
Lack of or inadequate data might also present with itself a big challenge. This is because some
information might lack or some sources for referencing might also prove very hard to get. This
will slow down the research process and pose serious challenges.
Page 6
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
7/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Introduction
In Kenya, there is high population growth compared to economic growth and weak
integration of population concerns into development. There are dramatic changes taking place
in the area of population and development. There are also increasing levels of poverty and
HIV/AIDS pandemic eroding many earlier health and development gains. This has been
reflected in the studies undertaken in this area. The studies are aimed at providing up-to-date
information on: the profile of the population -population size, composition and distribution
of population, levels, trends and differentials of fertility, mortality, migration and
urbanization and establishing the macro-economic implications of demographic changes on
fertility decline, globalization, MDGs, population and sustainable development challenges.
These studies are important for policy makers, planners, researchers and program managers
in planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of population and development
programs in Kenya. According to the World Bank, population growth refers to the average
annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths
and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country (World Bank, 2010).
The rate may be positive or negative. The growth rate is a factor in determining how great a
burden would be imposed on a country by the changing needs of its people for infrastructure
(e.g., schools, hospitals, housing, roads), resources (e.g., food, water, electricity), and jobs. Rapid
population growth can be seen as threatening to economic growth and development of any
country especially developing countries like Kenya (KNBS, 2010).
During the first phase of the implementation of the vision 2030 (2008-2012) and Agenda
Four, Kenya has achieved considerable progress in various demographic and health
indicators and made important strides on the policy front, by adopting policies, frameworks,
guidelines and action plans in major areas of concern. Others are currently under
development. However, studies show that some development indicators that have deteriorated
over the decade are infant mortality, life expectancy, school enrolment and poverty levels.
Economic growth virtually stagnated for most of the decade. This shows clearly that Kenyas
population has been on the increase and the impacts of this on its economic growth have been
many as this study will prove later.
Page 7
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
8/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
2.2. Empirical Literature
According to the data provided by the ministry of planning, national development and
Vision 2030, Kenya is currently adding one million people yearly to its already high population.
This high rate of population growth has adverse effects on spending in infrastructure, health,
education, environment, water and other social and economic sectors. In order for the
Government to achieve Vision 2030 goals, there is need to invest in education to meet the
demands of the growing school age population and the demand for future manpower. In addition,
critical investment will be required in family planning services, health and other social and
economic sectors to improve the welfare of Kenyans (Ministry of Planning, 2010).
Different studies have shown that Kenyas population is youthful and over 60% of population
was largely dependent upon a productive 40% for survival. Kenya has a mixed population
composition of different groups in terms of sex, race, ethnicity and socio-economic status.
KDHS suggests that Kenyan women have longer life expectancies than the men. The study
further shows a decline in almost all indicators of health: the fertility rate, which has been
declining since 1980s, reversed from 4.7 to 4.9 in 1998 and 2003, respectively;
contraceptive prevalence rate stagnated at negative effect on ideal number of children for
Kenyan families (KDHS, 2003). The 39% in 2003 as was in 1998, infant and under- five
mortality rates continued to increase; mortality is expected to rise because of AIDS pandemic,
such that life expectancy at birth will fall to 53 years for both sexes by 2010; it is projected that
fertility will continue to decline to reach a slow TFR of 4.0 births in 2010 and medium decline of
3.25 and fast decline of 2.5. In the absence of AIDS, the picture would be different. Population
will, however, continue to grow in spite of reduced TFR due to inbuilt-momentum to population
growth arising from age structure (World Bank, 2010). Kenyas population growth rate currently
stands at 2.462% (2011 estimate).
Some studies reported that Kenya is undergoing a demographic transition due to decline
in fertility. A peek at the population structure in the country shows that it is not undergoing a
rapid change, although when one puts the economy in that equation, the picture changes.
The 1989 and 1999 Population and Housing Censuses show that Kenya has a young population.
Similarly, the composition of the population has shifted, and there is now a significantly
higher proportion that is under age 20. Fertility decline has not been brought about by
economic growth and technology such as modern contraceptive methods but, mainly by
Page 8
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
9/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
active government pursuit of the population policy. There is a likelihood of population of Kenya
growing even faster considering the poor performance of most indices as shown from the
KDHS website (KDHS, 2003).
In addition, WHO projected that in Kenya HIV/AIDS risk perception has statistically
been found to have insignificant positive effects on desire for more children. However, there is a
statistically significant negative effect on ideal number of children for Kenyan families. Despite
the governments population control efforts and strategies in the last two decades, the studies
show that Kenya's population growth rate is still among the highest in the world. Until
recently when a decline was recorded, the growth rate had remained high over a long
time. Adolescents have been contributing greatly towards this high growth rate. This places
formidable difficulties on the governments ability to meet the economic and social needs, and
general development of the nation (WHO, 2010).
According to the World Bank, if subsidies, mis-pricing, and inadequate taxation of
environmentally damaging products continue to provide the wrong incentives for consumers and
producers in the rich world, and if the developing world emulates the consumption patterns in
rich countries, we can expect great damage to the environment and its ability to sustain growth.
A major transformation, starting in the rich world, will be needed to decouple population growth
and environmental impacts and to radically change the composition of the worlds output toward
high-input efficiency and environmental responsibility. Future patterns of consumption and
production must become a part of the global public policy dialogue (World Bank, The Road to
2050).
2.3. Theoretical Literature
It is observable here to say that Kenya leads Africas population growth. The population has
doubled over the last 25 years, to about 40 million people, and rapid population growth is set to
continue. Kenyas population will grow by around 1 million per year 3,000 people every day
over the next 40 years and will reach about 85 million by 2050. Many think this is a big problem.
There are three reasons why I am less certain that the rapid population growth in Africa,
especially in Kenya, is the fundamental development challenge:
First, despite Africas rapid population growth and Europes stagnation (even decline in few
countries) the old continent remains much more densely populated than Africa. If we look at
Western Europe, there are on average 170 people living on each square km. In Sub-Saharan
Page 9
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion%20&%20Analysis/Kenya%20can%20turn%20its%20rising%20population%20into%20growth%20tool/-/539548/897970/-/atvf1oz/-http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion%20&%20Analysis/Kenya%20can%20turn%20its%20rising%20population%20into%20growth%20tool/-/539548/897970/-/atvf1oz/- -
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
10/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
Africa there are only 70 today. This gap will narrow in the next decades but even by 2050,
Western Europe is expected to be more densely populated than Africa. Following the population
debates in Europe, especially in Germany you will realize that something serious need to be done
with Kenyas rate of population growth.
Second, while the speed of population growth remains unchanged, its sources are
different. In the past, population growth was driven by increasing numbers of children. Today,
and in the future, it is driven by longer life expectance and the base effect of the previous
population boom. There are just many more young families which have children in Kenya. The
number of children per family has fallen sharply from 8.1 children in 1978 to 4.6 children in
2008,and by 2050 it may reach 2.4. As a result, the fastest growing group in Kenyas population
is not anymore young children but adults which will almost triple in size from 21 million today
to about 60 million in 2050 (World Bank, 2011).
Third, population growth and urbanization go together, and economic development is
closely correlated with urbanization. Rich countries are urban countries. No country has ever
reached high income levels with low urbanization. Population growth increases density and,
together with rural-urban migration, creates higher urban agglomeration. And this is critical for
achieving sustained growth because large urban centers allow for innovation and increase
economies of scale. Companies can produce goods in larger numbers and more cheaply, serving
a larger number of low-income customers.
Kenya has companies which have been benefitting from increasing population growth and
density in targeting the large numbers of lower and lower-middle income groups the bottom
of the pyramid .Kenyas business model is viable because it can serve a multi-million customer
base, which has increased by 25% over the last 10 years and which continues to grow rapidly.
Are we thus ahead of golden age of development in Africa? It is possible but there is no
guarantee. This will depend on many other factors as well. As the last decades have shown larger
population and increased population density are no guarantee of success. However, it seems that
the current pattern of population growth is not the main constraint to Africas development
anymore and can even be a positive force.
This study will mainly focus on testing the following hypothesis:
Null Hypothesis (Ho)
The null hypothesis will be stated as;
Page 10
http://www.planning.go.ke/index.php?view=article&catid=110%3Alaunch-of-20082009-kdhs-preliminary-report&id=220%3Apress-release-official-launch-of-20082009-kenya-demographic-and-health-survey-preliminary-report&format=pdf&option=com_contenthttp://www.planning.go.ke/index.php?view=article&catid=110%3Alaunch-of-20082009-kdhs-preliminary-report&id=220%3Apress-release-official-launch-of-20082009-kenya-demographic-and-health-survey-preliminary-report&format=pdf&option=com_contenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wdr2009http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2009http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2009https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/two-habits-of-successful-kenyan-companieshttps://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/two-habits-of-successful-kenyan-companieshttp://www.planning.go.ke/index.php?view=article&catid=110%3Alaunch-of-20082009-kdhs-preliminary-report&id=220%3Apress-release-official-launch-of-20082009-kenya-demographic-and-health-survey-preliminary-report&format=pdf&option=com_contenthttp://www.planning.go.ke/index.php?view=article&catid=110%3Alaunch-of-20082009-kdhs-preliminary-report&id=220%3Apress-release-official-launch-of-20082009-kenya-demographic-and-health-survey-preliminary-report&format=pdf&option=com_contenthttp://www.worldbank.org/wdr2009http://www.worldbank.org/wdr2009https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/two-habits-of-successful-kenyan-companieshttps://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/two-habits-of-successful-kenyan-companies -
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
11/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
High population growth in Kenya is directly related to the slow pace of economic growth in most
districts of Kenya.
This study will focus mainly on finding the truth about the above stated null hypothesis and
testing the validity of the hypothesis.
Alternative Hypothesis (Ha)
The alternative hypothesis will be stated as; the relationship between high population growth in
Kenya and its slow pace of economic growth is not direct (is inverse).
2.4. Overview of Literature
By 2050 or so, the human population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two
Chinas to the number of people alive today (and may hit 10.1bn by the year 2100 according to a
recent United Nations projection). Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources
on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life.
Economic growth is seen as being a pre-requisite for the well-being of this increased global
population. There is a growing global awareness that the Earths resources are finite - resource
depletion (e.g. peak oil), water scarcity, food shortages etc. - is an increasing challenge to
economic growth and geopolitical stability. At the same time, there are increasing concerns
about the effect of human-induced climate change over both the short- and long-term time
horizon.
This study will therefore aim at finding solutions to questions such as will Kenya really achieve a
double figure economic growth rate with a more than 2.5% growth rate in its population? How
does economic growth continue to decline or how is it slowed down by the high rates of
population growth in the country? These questions will then be narrowed down and
recommendations be made on what should be done to reduce the increasing population growth.
Page 11
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
12/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1. Research Design
This research will employ the use of two main analysis strategies namely the regression analysis
and correlation analysis of data. The main source of data will be secondary sources where
empirical data available in written books and other published journals will be used. The modules
will include analyzing of the population trends in Kenya since the year1969-2009 as well as
comparing it with the trends in growth of GDP of Kenya for the range of the years. This research
allows for the building of research models basing them on the variables being measured. The
buildup models will aid the study in that it will be easier for the analyst to compare and contrast
as well as find out how the represented variables relate to each other. Additionally, the
information obtained from the models will be applied in making conclusions and
recommendations to the government on how to fight population growth as a means of improving
economic levels of the country.
Although the modules will present a complete battery of questions that would reduce unobserved
factors, they may lack one relevant and special feature: non-cognitive abilities.
As already stated earlier, economic growth is both beneficial and attractive in a country. Each
country aspires towards the achievement of an economic growth rate that will see it achieve full
employment of labor and reduce the levels of poverty in it. This study will aim at connecting the
economic growth rate of Kenya with its population control strategies as .
3.2. Model Specification
My model for this study will be based on the general formula of calculating the Gross Domestic
stated as follows:
GDP=C+I+G+(X-M) where C=Co+CiYd
G=Go
I=Io+Ii
X=Xo
M=Mo
Therefore;
GDP= Co + CiYd + Io + Ii + Go+ Xo Mo
Page 12
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
13/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
KEY:
GDP = Kenyas gross domestic product which measures economic growth of the country;
C = the countrys consumption level, whereas Co =autonomous consumption and Ci = the
induced consumption; Yd is the disposable income;
G= the government expenditure in terms of Kenya shillings;
I =the level of investment in Kenya, whereas Io = the autonomous investment and Ii = the
induced investment;
X = the countrys exports and
M= the countrys imports
GDP Per Capita = National income (GDP)
Total Population
3.3. Description and Measurement of Variables
The variables in my model will be calculated based on the data that will be collected from
secondary sources and will be calculated based on a number of years so as to compare the trends
over years and conclude on how population growth has affected Kenyas per capita income over
the years. We will also calculate per capita income of the country over several years and
compare the trends in per capita income as the population of Kenya continues to increase over
time. GDP will be calculated from given figures and the population figures will be obtained from
the KNBS website and publications. Given the calculated GDP and the population figures, we
will then calculate the GDP per Capita which is a measure of the quality of the living standards
of people and also their poverty levels.
3.4. Sources of Data
The main sources of data for this research will be the secondary sources which are believed to be
available in written books and other publications. The following publications will serve as the
main sources of data for the study:
Economics Textbooks
Newspaper articles and magazines
Journals
World Bank publications
Government documents and reports like Agenda 4, Vision 2030 and MDGs.
WHO reports and publications
Page 13
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
14/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
Internet sources and other search engines like google and Wikipedia
GTZ, IMF, UNEP, UN reports and documents
3.5. Data Analysis
Collected data from secondary sources will be analyzed using closely related operations such as
establishment of category, coding the data, cleaning of the collected data, tabulating the data as
well as making conclusions guided by the findings of the study. Additionally, regression and
correlation analysis may be done to those variables that will apply so as to determine the nature
of the relationship between them (either direct or indirect).
Page 14
-
7/28/2019 Research Proposal. Motanya
15/15
THE EFFECT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA 2010
References
Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and National Development, (2004a).
Economic
Survey.Nairobi: Government Printer.
Central Bureau OF Statistics, Ministry of Finance and Planning, (2001b). Counting our People
for Development: Socio-economic Profile of the Population. Volume 1. Nairobi:
Government Printer.
Government of Kenya, (2008).Agenda Four: Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation
mediated by H.E Kofi Annan, chair of the Panel of Eminent African Personalities .
Nairobi: Government printer.
Karori, N. Gabriel & Ali, J. (1998).Macro-Economic Implications of Demographic Changes in
Kenya. Nairobi: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC).
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, (2004). Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS)
2003. Nairobi: Government Printer.
Meadows, H., Randers, J. and Meadows, D. (2004). The Limits to Growth - the 30 year Update.
ISBN 978-1-84407-144-9: Earth scan.
Ministry of Planning, National Development and Vision 2030, (2010). 2009 population and
Housing Census Results: The Population Report.Nairobi: Government printer.
Republic of Kenya, (2005)Statement by Hon. Prof. Peter Anyang Nyongo: Minister for
Planning and National Development To The United Nations Thirty-Eighth session of the
Commission on Population and Developmenton 4th-8th April, 2005 held in New York,
U.S.A.
Turner, G. (2008). A comparison of the limits to growth with thirty years of reality, Socio-
Economics and the Environment in Discussion. London, UK.
World Bank, (2011).Africas Poverty Index and Economic Indicators. New York, U.S.A.
Page 15