Achim Dobermann

Research Prioritization, IDOs, and the Post-2015 Sustainable

Development Agenda

Jharkhand, Eastern India, September 2013

Mandu, Jharkhand, 8 September 2013

A product that meets a clear demand.

• IR74371-70-1-1 (parents: 1 IRRI, 1 TV)• Cross made in 1997: target was upland rice• Succession of projects and IRRI breeders (3)• 1 key NARS (CRURRS) + drought network partners• Official release in 2009 in JH and OR for RL• Spreading rapidly in many states through local

partners + IRRI: seed + agronomy• Funds: CGIAR core, GCP, Cirad, BMZ, IFAD, BMGF,

government, state, ….• Released and spreading in Bangladesh and Nepal

(e.g., USAID-FtF, BMGF)• Shared with many other countries and companies

“Rice developed through collaboration”

VARIETY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINES

TRAIT DISCOVERY

GENE DISCOVERY

MARKER APPLICATIONS

Traits

QTLs, Genes, DNA-sequencesDNA-markers, marker applications

Product profiles - trait packages Varieties, Variety portfoliosBreeding lines, Parental linesBreeder / Foundation seeds

TRAIT D

EVELOPM

ENT

E. Nissilae, IRRI

Key questions for us

What needs to be done?

How are we going to do it?

How much does it cost?

Where can we find the money?

How can we track it and adjust?

Strategic assessment of research priorities for IRRI in Asia, 2010-2013

• Does IRRI’s greatest potential to benefit the poor– rest in irrigated or rainfed environments?

– arise in South Asia or Southeast Asia?

– stem from genetic improvement or enhanced management?

– result from upstream science or downstream adaptation and delivery?

• Approach: compile and integrate state of the art understanding, data and tools to evaluate 63 potential technology solutions (IRRI role)

D. Raitzer, IRRI

Approach1. Background

analysis (baseline scenarios, etc.)

2. Analysis of data on problem prevalence

3. Characterization of scientific solutions

(assumptions, timeframes,

effectiveness)

4. Estimation of outcomes and effects

at scale (adoption, productivity, supply)

5. Partial equilibrium modeling

Output: Expected impacts

quantified

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bangladesh

China

India

Laos

Myanmar

Malaysia

Nepal

Pakistan

Vietnam

South Korea

North Korea

East Timor

Taiwan

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Cambodia

Bhutan

Philippines

Japan

Indonesia

Asia

1 - IR 2 - IR / other 3 - IR / IR 4 - IR / IR / other 5 - RF 6 - RF / RF 7 - RF / RF other 8 - RF Dry/Upland

New rice agro-ecologies for Asia (ca. 2005)

Projected change in harvested area 2012-2035 (ARIMA, proportion)

D. Raitzer, IRRI

Example of constraint characterization output – average area affected by flooding (proportion harvested area)

D. Raitzer, IRRI

Example of constraint characterization process - biotic

Detailed loss surveys of 456 farms in 6

Production Situations

RICEPEST and Epirice modeling

Data collected by 3000 Indonesian staff for 22 years on rice damage, reconciled

to AEs

Expert knowledge

Results of on farm experiments in 6

Production Situations

Estimates

Stage 4: Modeling - logistic diffusion

Adoption over time is modeled against a symmetric logistic diffusion curve by solving for the inflection point using provided points on the curve by season/ecology/subregion

International research attributable adoption identified via difference between adoption curve and delayed availability

Overall results

• Gains do not exceed yield gaps

– Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 due to the 63 technologies analyzed: 6.4% – 10%

– Total increases in Asian rice production by 2035 attributable to international research: 4.0% – 6.3%

• Gains consistent with research contributions assessed historically in Asia.

• Includes R&D pipeline at various stages, from basic research to ready to use products.

D. Raitzer, IRRI

Aggregate impact potential (2005 PPP$, discounted at 5%), low attributable scenario 2013-2035

Results by ecology & subregion – total benefits (2005 PPP$ billions)

Results by ecology & subregion – benefits to the PPP$2 poor (2005 PPP$ billions)

Potential international research impacts from 2013 to 2035 – ‘constant’ elasticity with positive shutdown price in “low” scenario (values in billions of discounted [5%] 2005 PPP$, DALYs in millions)

Host plant resistance

Abiotic stress tolerance Inbred yield C4 rice

Hybrid rice

Other traits Management Mechanization

Total

3.35

10.92 8.27

2.11

2.28

2.22

7.43

4.14

Consumers

1.31

4.53 3.54

0.85

1.01

0.97

2.79

3.22

Producers

1.84

5.58 4.00

1.07

1.03

1.30

3.72

4.75

Hired labor

0.19

0.76 0.70

0.18

0.23

(0.08)

(0.26)

(3.87)

Poor consumers

0.37

1.60 1.03

0.22

0.35

0.26

0.84

0.93

Poor producers

0.43

1.82 1.06

0.25

0.32

0.31

0.85

0.67

Poor hired labor

0.10

0.49 0.35

0.09

0.12

(0.04)

(0.15)

(1.81)

Total poor (PPP2/day)

0.90

3.90 2.44

0.57

0.79

0.53

1.54

(0.21)

DALYs reduced

0.51

2.33 1.98

0.51

0.71

0.49

1.22

1.33

GHG & water

0.01

0.04 0.03

0.01

0.01

0.02

1.17

0.04

Germplasm Management related

Major individual international rice research solutions (“low” scenario, positive shutdown price, 2013-2035 surplus effects in million

2005 PPP$ discounted [5%])

Total benefits

Total benefits to 1.25 poor (including

labor)

Total benefits to 2 poor (including

labor)

DALYs reduced

GHG & water

Varieties with increased attainable yield 5,393

652.0

1,678.4

1.4

21.0

Inbred yield potential 2,874 283.8 760.4 0.6 7.3 Submergence tolerant varieties 2,326 363.6 812.3 0.5 8.1 Hybrid yield potential 2,281 317.7 789.2 0.7 5.6

Introgression of drought QTLs 2,223

472.8

1,034.2

0.6

8.6

Site-specific nutrient mgt. (NPK) 2,227 216.7 556.0 0.3 13.1 C4 rice 2,112 213.7 569.9 0.5 7.5 Salt tolerant varieties for coastal areas

1,946

299.9

662.2

0.4

4.0

Water-saving irrigation (AWD) 1,469 71.4 158.9 0.1 1,040.0

D. Raitzer, IRRI

Results by upstream/downstream

What can we use it for?

• Transparent, documented methodology and data: baseline for subsequent assessments (ex, post)

• Easy to update and tailor to various applications: scenarios, hypotheses,…

• Internalizes impact thinking and culture• Discover what we know, and what we don’t know:

guidance for filling critical data gaps• Guidance for research priorities and fundraising:

exposes many trade-offs

How should the CGIAR spend its money?

CRP CRP TitleActual unpsent carried forward

from 2012

Expected new W1 for 2013

Expected W2 for 2013

90% OF 2012 expenditure

Proposed W/W2

allocation

1.1 Drylands Systems 0.9 6.4 8.2 15.5 15.51.2 Humid tropics 0.2 8.5 5.0 13.5 13.71.3 AAS 4.1 1.9 8.7 7.8 14.7

2 PIM 11.7 7.8 12.9 17.8 32.43.1 WHEAT 1.6 5.3 4.8 10.9 11.73.2 MAIZE 4.7 9.7 4.2 14.0 18.63.3 GRiSP 0 25.8 6.1 31.9 31.93.4 RTB 11.3 9.8 12.8 20.1 33.93.5 Grain legumes 2.6 11.2 9.3 23.1 23.13.6 Dryland cereals 2 6.2 3.4 9.9 11.63.7 Livestock and fish 7.5 0.0 15.2 7.4 22.7

4 A4NH 8.1 5.0 16.2 11.4 29.3

5 WLE 6.7 8.3 10.2 21.9 25.2

6Forests, Trees & Agroforestry 0.2 19.7 6.6 26.3 26.5

7 CCAFS 4.9 32.8 4.0 36.8 41.7Gene banks 2.6 8.6 2.2 10.8 13.4

Total CRP 69 167 130 279 366

Can this be done in the CGIAR?

• Robust methodology for a new SRF and the whole CGIAR portfolio?

• Robust methodology for all CRPs?• What adaptations would be needed? Who will do

it?• Monitoring mechanisms?

1 Genetic Resources

2 New Varieties

3 Production Systems

5 Targeting & Policy

6 Regional Delivery

Global and Regional R&D Product Lines

2.1. Informatics and MET

2.2. Improved traits

2.3. Stress-tol. rice

2.4. HY irrigated rice

2.5. Hybrid rice

2.6. Healthier rice

Activities ProductsMilestones

Regional/National Initiatives- System solutions- Public & private partners

Outcomes

( Regional)

for target regions

Impact

4 New Products & Value Chains

GRiSP R&D Themes

Partners

Prod

uct d

eman

d

Product demand

• 5-yr work and business plan: 2011-2015• Interdisciplinary, product-oriented R&D: 94 R&D Products

clustered in 26 Product lines under 6 Themes• New frontiers research projects• Capacity building & gender

15-20% 25-30% 20-30% 5-10% 5-10% 10%

GRiSP Themes, Product Lines & Products

The Timeline for C4 Rice

Genediscovery

andmolecular toolbox

development

Characterize regulatory

controls

Transform rice to

express Kranz

anatomy and the C4 metabolic enzymes

Optimize C4

function in transgenic

rice

Breed C4 transgenics into local varieties

3 years

3 years

5 years

4 years

Theme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6

Genes, varieties, management technologies, information gateway, models, data, tools, capacity, etc

Products locally adapted and promoted by public, NGO, and private sector

Products adopted by farmers, value chain actors, policy makers, other stakeholders

Increased nutritious rice production

Stable and affordable price of rice

Increased resource use efficiency

Rural Poverty

Nutrition and health

Food Security

Sustainability

Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact

Development partnershipsScience partnerships

Timeline

Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions

GRiSP

CGIAR SLOs

Schematic impact pathway

Product

Pilot site farmer adopters, and benefits seen

Large scale dissemination

Large numbers of farmers adopt

Increased productivity

SLO (food security, poverty, sustainability, H&N)

Collaborative partner adopters, and benefits seen

GRiSP

“Outside”

Research outcome – Intermediate and end user

Intermediate development Outcome (IDO)

5->10 years

3-6 years

6-9 years

9-12 years

>> 12 years

100s

1000s

100,000s

1,000,000s

Farmers

GRiSP Theme 1Genetic Diversity

GRiSP Theme 2Breeding

GRiSP Theme 5Policy and Impact

GRiSP Theme 6Capacity and Delivery

GRiSP Theme 4Value adding

GRiSP Theme 3CNRM

SLO1 Rural PovertySLO3 Nutrition and healthSLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability

Gene Bank; Novel gene pool;Valuable-trait genes

Breeding tools; breeding lines; (hybrid) varieties for biotic and abiotic stress, high yield, nutritious value

Resource-use efficient, low carbon-footprint management practices; Adaptations to stresses and Climate Change; Mechanized and Diversified systems

Post-harvest technologies, Strategies for market access, Specialty rices, Novel rice-based products

C4 rice

Information and tools for technology targeting; Impact assessments; Global rice information for policy analysis

Tools for communication and Extension; Models and tools for capacity building; Platforms for innovation and delivery; Seed and variety delivery systems

NARES and ARIs use tools, genes, (pre-)breeding lines to develop improved local rice varieties

Pro-poor and pro-gender improved management practices locally adapted by NARES and promoted by public, NGO, and private sector

Post-harvest technologies, market-access solutions, and value-added products locally adapted by NARES

Local policy makers and decision takers enlightened about rice policy opportunities

Extension, delivery, and capacity building models employed by local stakeholders

Functional (public, NGO, private) local rice seed delivery systems/markets

Farmers adopt improved and nutritious rice varieties

Farmers adopt sustainable and environmentally-friendly rice management practices

Rice value-chain actors adopt improved post-harvest practices

New cadre of high-quality rice researchers and extension agents; extended partnerships for delivery and impact at scale

Policies in place that support positive impact from rice research

Increased rice yield

Increased rice production

Enhanced ecosystem resilience

Reduced pesticide use

Increased water, labor, and energy use efficiency

Increased consumption of nutritious rice

Stable and affordable price of rice

Increased expandable income on nonrice items by poor rice farmers (and urban dwellers)

Stable and sufficient market availability of rice

Increased income by actors in the rice value chain

Reduced cost of rice production

Reduced mycotoxin contamination in rice

Farmers produce value-added and novel products

Reduced GHG emissions. carbon footprint in rice production Reduced post-

harvest loss in rice

Increased value adding in the rice value chain

Intermediate Development Outcome

Research Outcome

Outputs: products

End user

Partners

En

abli

ng

act

ion

s

Local rice seed distribution systems deployed

En

abli

ng

act

ion

s

Increased health of rice farmers and rice consumers

Urban Poverty

Breeders effectively access genebank for trait mining

Improved and accelerated variety development with novel traits

Increased women empowerrment

Participation of women in decision making

MDG: reduced poverty MDG: increased gender equity

GRiSP IDOsSLO 1: Reduced rural povertySLO 2: Improved food securitySLO 3: Improved nutrition and health SLO 4: Sustainably managed natural resources

# IDO SLOs1 Increased rice yield 1,2,32 Increased rice productivity (or resource-use efficiency) 1,2,33 Decreased poverty of net rice consumers (urban and rural) and

rice producers1

4 Increased sustainability and environmental quality of rice-based cropping systems

4

5 Improved efficiency and increased value in rice value chain 1,2,36 Improved nutrition status derived from rice consumption 37 Increased rice genetic diversity for current and future

generations1,2,3

8 Increased pro-poor and gender-equitable delivery systems for improved rice technologies

1-4

9 Increased gender equity in the rice value chain 1,2,3

Potential performance indicatorsIndicator IDO Theme Asia Africa Latin America Global

India-Bihar

India-Odissa

B’desh-South, coastal

Myanmar-cebtral,delta

Vietnam-South

Laos, cambodia

Philippines

Nigeria

Ghana

Tanzania

Mozambique

Senegal

Madagascar

Peru , Equador, Colombia

Venezuela

Dominican rep., Nicaragua

Uruguay, RGS- Brasil

1 Genetic gain 1 1,2 x x X2 Farmers’ yield 1 2,3 x x x x X3 Water productivity 2,4 34 Fertilizer productivity 2,4 35 Consumer expenditure on rice 3 5 X6 Income from rice farming 3 57 Pesticide use 4 38 Greenhouse gas emissions 4 3 X9 Post-harvest loss 5 410 Value added through specialty

products5 4

What is an IDO? How are we going to measure it?

Are we going to measure real or virtual performance?

Will this inspire and guide us to do better research?

Will anyone outside the CGIAR understand all that?

How can the CGIAR contribute to the post-2015 sustainable development

agenda?

Economic development

Social inclusion

Environmental sustainability

Good governance

Post-2015 process work streams

• UN GA session, Sep 25• Open Working Group

http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org• UN System Task Team• High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons• Sustainable Development Solutions Network

(SDSN), http://unsdsn.org• National, regional, global and thematic

consultations, http://www.worldwewant2015.org• UN Global Compact,

http://www.unglobalcompact.org/

http://unsdsn.org

03 June 2013

10 Sustainable Development Goals1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger

2. Achieve Development within Planetary Boundaries

3. Ensure Effective Learning for All Children and Youth for Life and Livelihood

4. Achieve Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and Human Rights for All

5. Achieve Health and Wellbeing at All Ages

6. Improve Agricultural Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity

7. Empower Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities

8. Curb Human-Induced Climate Change and Ensure Sustainable Energy

9. Secure Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Good Management of Natural Resources

10. Transform Governance for Sustainable Development

http://unsdsn.org

Goal 6: Improve Agriculture Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity

Targets:• 6a. Ensure sustainable food production systems that

achieve high yields with high efficiency of water, nutrients, and energy, and have low food losses and waste.

• 6b. Halt forest and wetland conversion to agriculture, protect soil resources, and ensure that farming systems are resilient to climatic change and disasters.

• 6c. Ensure universal access in rural areas to basic resources and infrastructure services (land, water, sanitation, modern energy, transport, mobile and broadband communication, agricultural inputs, and advisory services).

Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems

Indicators:• Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.)• Crop yield gap (actual yield as % of yield potential)• Livestock and fish productivity growth• Full-chain nitrogen [phosphorus] use efficiency (%)• Crop water productivity (tons of harvested product per

unit irrigation water)• …..• ……

Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems

Aspirational outcomes:• Annual yield growth rate of major food crops approaches

or exceeds [1.5]%.• The majority of farms achieve [80]% of the attainable

water-limited yield potential by 2030.• Livestock productivity in developing countries doubled by

2030, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.• Full-chain efficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus

increased by [x]% relative to current levels in each country with sub-optimal efficiency.

• Water productivity of crop production increased by [30]% in countries with high water use for irrigation.

The CGIAR should adopt the post-2015 framework and terminology

Post-2015 SD• SDG• Targets• Indicators and metrics

for them• (specific outcomes)

CGIAR• SLOs• IDOs• Indicators• …

the timelines for the post-2015 process, a new SRF and a CRP II portfolio seem to match: 2013-2015

Could the CGIAR also step up and - as a major contribution to the post-2105 agenda - become the world leader in monitoring the performance of agriculture in developing countries?

Messages

• Embrace the ongoing SDG process and use the same framework.

• Focus on the unique role of the CGIAR: outcome-oriented research for SD.

• Do better priority setting at System (SRF) and CRP level using a uniform, transparent, robust theory of change and methodology.

• Measure the measurable at critical points along the R&D pipeline, for faster and greater impact.

• Leave enough room for the unexpected.