Research opportunities using IRIS and other seismic data resources John Taber, Incorporated Research...
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Transcript of Research opportunities using IRIS and other seismic data resources John Taber, Incorporated Research...
Research opportunities using IRIS and other seismic data
resources
John Taber, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology
Michael Wysession, Washington University
Overview• Hands on
– Estimating seismic hazard using IRIS Earthquake Browser
• Discovering a predictive mathematical model
• Demo– Exploring regional tectonics using focal mechanisms– Recording and analyzing data from an educational
or research-grade seismometer– Viewing a set of seismograms from an earthquake– USArray ground motion visualizations– Understanding earthquakes via a simple physical
model
Estimating seismic hazard
Research problem
You and your partner have been asked to compare the seismic hazard in two regions to determine which is safer for building a new manufacturing plant.
1.What type of data would you need to collect to make the comparison?
2. How could you express your findings in a quantitative way?
Earthquake hazard from a single fault
•Would like to know
•How often do the biggest earthquakes occur?
•When will the next big one occur?
•Extend earthquake history with geologic record
Earthquake recurrence along a single fault
Sieh et al., 1989
With a partner:
Determine when the next Pallett Creek earthquake is going to occur.
Can you estimate the uncertainty in your answer?
Earthquake recurrence along a single fault can be highly variable: probabilities hard to assess
M >7: mean = 132 yr
Standard deviation = 105 yr
Estimated probability of next earthquake in 30 yrs is 7-51%
-> Nearly Random!
Sieh et al., 1989
How can we deal with unpredictable nature of individual faults?
Try regional approach
•Use the rate of earthquake occurrencein one time period to forecast earthquake activity in another time period
•Combine results from multiple faults
•Consider more than just the biggest earthquakes
IRIS Earthquake Browser - www.iris.edu/ieb
IRIS Earthquake Browser - www.iris.edu/ieb
• Can use for introduction to plate tectonics– Explore plate boundaries
– Turn plate boundary lines on and off
– Interactive 3D viewer
• General exploration of spatial distribution of local and regional seismicity
Estimating seismic hazard
Steps:• Select a region of the world that is of interest to you • Interrogate the earthquake catalog to determine the
number of events that occur in a 25 year period– Set the Time Range
– Set the Magnitude Range
• In an Excel spreadsheet, record the total number of events for each magnitude range
• Determine the number of earthquakes/year for each magnitude range
• Plot the magnitude range vs the number of earthquakes/year
IRIS Earthquake Browser - www.iris.edu/ieb
Questions to discuss with a partner
• Given the range of the data, what sort of plot gives the clearest representation of the data?
• Do you see any patterns or trends in your data?
• How does your plot compare to your partner’s plot of a different region?
• What is the likelihood of earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater and 7.0 or greater occurring in the next year in the 2 regions?
• What is the likelihood of these events occurring in the next 100 years in each region?
Earthquakes, Magnitude >3.5, 1973-2007
Earthquakes, Magnitude >3.5, 1973-2007
Ear
thqu
akes
/yea
r
Magnitude
California (blue) and Eastern US Earthquakes (red)
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1000.00
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Magnitude
Number/Year
California Eastern US Expon. (California) Expon. (Eastern US)
How often does a M6 earthquake occur?
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1000.00
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5
Magnitude
Number/Year
California Eastern US Expon. (California) Expon. (Eastern US)
How often does a M7 earthquake occur?
Real, imperfect data set
Interpretation questions
• How can you use the seismicity information to estimate which of your two regions would be a safer choice for the manufacturing plant mentioned at the beginning of the exercise?
• What are some assumptions, limitations, and potential sources of error in drawing conclusions about long-term seismic hazard using the above technique?
http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/hough/east-vs-west.jpg
Ground shaking from a magnitude 5 earthquake in the east is approximately equivalent to that of a magnitude 6 earthquake in the west.
Virginia M 5.8
California 6.5
Going from seismicity rate to ground shaking
USGS National Seismic Hazard Map
Submitted draft exercise explores hazard map
Exploring regional tectonics
using focal
mechanisms
• Visual sorting of normal, reverse, and strike-slip mechanisms
• Can explore distribution in a subduction zone• IRIS main menu: Data and Software > Products
– Select Moment Tensors, then Quick links– http://www.iris.edu/spud/momenttensor
• Focal mechanism animation available
Recording
and
analyzing seismic
data
using jAmaseis
• Real time data streaming and simple analysis– Simple filtering, arrival picking, locations, magnitudes
Recording
and
analyzing seismic
data
using jAmaseis
• Real time data streaming and simple analysis– Simple filtering, arrival picking, locations, magnitudes
• Up to 3 data streams can be viewed and stored locally– Local or remote educational seismographs– Any global research station received and stored
in the IRIS Data Management Center
Recordings from the
Global
Seismic
Network
• Real time data streaming and simple analysis
Potential seismograph-related research topics
• Local seismograph calibration and sensitivity– Distance/magnitude relationship
• Alan Kafka
– Analyzing seismic data to find what earthquakes were recorded and then learning about the tectonics of each region
• Dave Voorhees’ student
– Finding the best recording location
Rapid
Earthquake
Viewer
• Developed and maintained by Univ S. Carolina
Understanding
earthquakes via
a si
mple
physical
model
• Earthquake machine
• Simple data collection and analysis leads to very similar result to real earthquake catalog
USArray
Ground
Motion
Visualizations
• Visualizations exist for all parts of lower 48
• 1D and 3D versions
EPO
web
page from
www.iris.edu
• Feedback?• Comments?• Questions?
EXTRAS
USArray
Ground
Motion
Visualizations
• Visualizations exist for all parts of lower 48
Investigating
Earth structure
using tomographic
models
• Select a region and a submitted velocity model and generate a cross section
• Fate of slabs • Crustal and upper mantle thickness under
mountain ranges
Selection from focal
mechanism
ani
mation