Research on Sustainable Development Seminar
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Research on Sustainable Development Seminar
Center for International Development
Harvard University
9 March 2006
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Center for International Development to establish
Fund for Sustainable Development
• “In an effort to address one of the world’s most pressing public problems – sustainable development – Harvard’s Center for International Development (CID) and the Ministry for the Environment and Territory of the Italian Republic will work together to create The Fund for Sustainable Development at the KSG.
• The fund will support training and research programs on sustainable development and natural resource management with an international orientation and a vision toward achieving shared prosperity and reducing poverty while protecting the environment.”
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Global Environmental Assessments:Lessons from History
Bill Clark
for the
Global Environmental Assessment Project(Ron Mitchell, Dave Cash, Nancy Dickson, Jill Jaeger, Alex Farrell, Sheila Jasanoff, Marybeth Long-Martello)
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The Problem…• > 200 international environmental treaties• Most requiring periodic science assessments• Through complex processes engaging ’00s – ‘000s
• 2-3 completed/yr on climate, ozone, acid rain in 80s/90s• >12 on all topics underway in 2003
• What should we learn from the experience?– Many works advocating particular assessment methods– Growing body of work by reflective practitioners
• Benedick, Bolin, Houghton, Mahlman, Jacobs…– Growing number/sophistication of scholarly studies on assessments of
single issues providing depth of analysis• Haas, Litfin, Alcamo, Miller, Parson, Morgan…
– Fewer comparative studies providing breadth…• Carnegie Commission (1992), OECD Mega-Science (1998)• Andresen et al (2000); Social Learning Group (2001); Young (2002)…• Global Environmental Assessment Project…
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Global Environmental Assessment Project
http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/gea• Multi-year research and training program• international, interdisciplinary team of faculty (20+) and fellows (30+)• workshops for scholars, practitioners• working papers (50+), published articles (40+), seminars
– Global climate change and ENSO variability– Stratospheric ozone depletion– Transboundary tropospheric air pollution– Biological, chemical hazards…– Regional assessments within global change context (fisheries, water, coastal zone)
• Summary books– Jasanoff and Martello, eds. (2004) Earthly Politics: Local and global in environmental
governance– Farrell and Jaeger, eds. (2005) Assessments of Regional & Global Environmental risks:
Designing processes for effective use of science– Mitchell, Clark, Cash and Dickson, eds. (2006) Global Environmental Assessments:
Information and influence
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Findings: What is an “Assessment”?
• A social process linking knowledge and action in public policy/decision contexts...
• usually entailing the creation of discrete products (eg. models, forecasts, reports)…
• within an institutional framework of rules, norms, expectations (eg. FCCC, LRTAP).
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A Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments
Ultimate Determinants Proximate Pathways Assessment Effectiveness
Assessment characteristics
Saliency
Credibility
Legitimacy
EffectivenessUser characteristics
Historical context
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A Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments
Ultimate Determinants Proximate Pathways Assessment Effectiveness
Assessment characteristics
Saliency
Credibility
Legitimacy
EffectivenessUser characteristics
Historical context
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Finding: What do assessments influence?
• Environmental pressures, states, impacts– IIASA RAINS for LRTAP SOx-II
• Actors’ agendas, strategies or decisions– Ozone Trends Panel (DuPont)
• Issue framing, terms of the debate– WMO/UNEP Villach ’86 Climate assessment
• R&D priorities, standards for monitoring– IPCC Special Report on Forest Sinks
• … or, more generally, the “Issue Domain” – participants, institutions, behaviors, outcomes…– (Compare Sabatier’s “policy subsystem,” Ostrom’s “actor domain”)
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A Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments
Ultimate Determinants Proximate Pathways AssessmentEffectiveness
Assessment characteristics
Saliency
Credibility
Legitimacy
EffectivenessUser characteristics
Historical context
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Finding: An assessment is more likely to influence actors’ decisions to the extent
that it is perceived to be…
• Credible (Is it true?) – of technical arguments to relevant communities– † US CIAP-Impacts vs. WMO ‘Blue Books’
• Salient (Is it relevant?)– to changing needs of specific users, producers – † US NAPAP vs. European RAINS
• Legitimate (Is it fair / respectful / accountable?)– or fairness of the process to stakeholders. – †WRI GWP vs. German Enquete I
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Findings: SCL Complexities
• S,C,L are more “multiplicative” than “additive”– poor perceptions of one cannot be (wholly) offset by good
perceptions of others
• Tight tradeoffs exist among saliency, credibility and legitimacy due to potential power of findings to support/undermine interests…– most ways of improving one dimension undermine other(s)
• Its (relatively) easy to craft an assessment that a single user/country will perceive to be adequately SCL…– the challenge is designing assessments that are simultaneously
perceived to meet SCL standards by multiple users/stakeholders with different goals
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A Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments
Ultimate Determinants Proximate Pathways Assessment Effectiveness
Assessment characteristics
Saliency
Credibility
Legitimacy
Effectiveness User characteristics
Historical context
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On what do perceptions of salience, credibility, legitimacy
most depend?
• Context of the assessment– issue characteristics, linkage, attention cycles
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Attention to Global Environmental Issues
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Findings: On what do perceptions of salience, credibility, legitimacy most depend?
• Context of the assessment– issue characteristics, linkage, attention cycles
• Characteristics of the user, target audiences– concern, openness, capacity– Implications for changing user, or changing
assessments….
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A Conceptual Framework for thinking about Effective Assessments
Ultimate Determinants Proximate Pathways Assessment Effectiveness
Assessment characteristics
- science/ governance- participation
- scope, dissent
Saliency
Credibility
Legitimacy
EffectivenessUser characteristics
- concern - capacity - openness
Historical context - issue characteristics - linkage - attention cycle
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Characteristics of theAssessment Process
• Institutionalization
• Participation;
• Treatment of scope, dissent;
• Provision for iteration, evaluation, learning
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How does the institutionalization of assessment influence effectiveness?
• Dilemma: salience vs credibility– enhance communication btw science and policy– protect scientists, policy makers from contagion
• Concept: the interface as boundary – not static gulf to be bridged (Carnegie);– rather a dynamic boundary to be negotiated;– embeddedness of assessment institutions
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How do participation decisions influence effectiveness?
• Dilemma: legitimacy vs value vs credibility– identify, attract, retain relevant participants– “great expectations” vs great numbers
• Concept: participation as means to an end– differentiate roles in the process (eg. scoping
vs. fact-finding vs. policy advice)– match expectations to institutional capacity
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How does the treatment of assessment scope influence their
effectiveness?• Dilemma: saliency vs. credibility
• Concept: integrated assessments suffer from bounded rationality, vulnerability to deconstruction; dis-integrated assessments provide focused answers to specific questions
• Cause/effect vs. impacts vs. policy options
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How does the treatment of uncertainty and dissent influence the effectiveness of assessments?
• Dilemma: value vs credibility vs legitimacy
• Concept: embracing inconclusiveness– insight oriented vs decision oriented assessment– strategies for treating extreme events– strategies for using dissent
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Provision for iteration,evaluation, and social learning
• There exists a huge variety of experiments in how to do good assessments….
• But the target is moving (changing political context, issue framing, knowledge) …
• … and the institutional frameworks tend to be “sticky,” locked in early forms (IPCC);
• We don’t learn because its hard… but also because we don’t try (a few exceptions…).
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Practical implications….
• Adjust design details for scientific assessments dependent on case, context (attn. IPCC: One size does not fit all… smaller is often better)
• Reconceptualize assessment as process of co-production through which interactions of experts and users define, shape, validate a shared body of usable knowledge…
• Work for international system of research and assessment, coupling global knowledge and local use through national institutions.
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Summary of Findings on Influential Assessments
• Assessments vary in the type of influence they have, not just the amount (influence on what?)
• Influence of a given assessment varies across audiences (influence on whom?)
• Influence for a given audience depends on its attribution of saliency and legitimacy, not just credibility, to the assessment (influence though what pathways?)
• Such attributions, and thus influence, are best achieved through processes of “co-production” that involve users in the design of assessments
• Successful co-production requires matching capacity of users with demands of assessment (and adjusting both)
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Further information…
• Global Environmental Assessment Project– http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/gea
• Science, Environment and Development Group (CID)– http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/sed/
• Bill Clark– Science, environment and Development Group– Center for International Development– John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University– [email protected]