Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price...
Transcript of Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price...
Research
Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity
June 2020 | ftserussell.com
AUTHORS
Mikhail Bezroukov
VP, Analytics Product Manager
+44 7976 161817 [email protected]
Yu Zou
Director, Yield Book Analytics Development
+1 646 989 2174 [email protected]
ftserussell.com 2
Table of contents Executive summary 3
USD investment grade corporate bonds 3
USD high yield corporate bonds 5
Investment grade sector liquidity 6
ftserussell.com 3
USD investment grade corporate bonds
Figure 1. Investment grade corporate price liquidity ratio and index return
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
WHO declares pandemic
Fed rate cut
Fed begins bond buying
Fed expands PMCCF and SMCCF and
TALF
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Index V
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e
Price L
iquid
ity R
atio %
per
100,0
00 p
ar
trade
PLR % per 100,000
USBIG Index Return
5 per. Mov. Avg. (PLR % per 100,000)
Executive summary The COVID-19 crisis has impacted asset valuations, increased volatility and
led to reduced liquidity in many cases. Most asset classes have been affected,
and governments have stepped in to support financial operations. Below, we
examine the effects of the crisis on the year-to-date liquidity of USD corporate
bonds, as measured by the price liquidity ratio.
The price liquidity ratio calculated by Yield Book looks at market impact and
measures the movement in price of a security for an executed trade of a given
size. The price movement is calculated on an excess of curve basis, and then
aggregated across the given index or sector. A higher ratio represents a larger
movement in price for a given trade size and therefore shows lower liquidity.
For this analysis, we are using executed transaction prices as recorded in the
TRACE database. The liquidity ratios are calculated based on the transaction
volumes for a given day and are then rescaled to represent a 100,000 par
amount trade size.
The Index Price Liquidity Ratio has
fallen since the March volatility
heights; but has not returned to pre-
crisis levels.
ftserussell.com 4
As Figure 1. shows, the crisis has led to a dramatic increase in the price liquidity
ratio, and by extension, the total costs of carrying out a transaction. Markets were
largely unmoved until the second week of March, when trading costs began to
climb rapidly. This correlates with the wider market turmoil that was experienced
in that week. The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02%
at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of April. The USBIG Corporate index
had a return of around -7% during this period, and almost -15% from the most
recent high to lowest point in March.
The liquidity ratio registered several spikes since March and can also be used to
gauge market reaction of various Fed policy actions. Note for example the
reduction of transaction costs after March 23, when the Fed began its corporate
bond buying program.
On the other hand, transaction costs also spiked following the Fed’s April 9
expansion of PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF programs. Since the underlying index
saw positive returns during this period, this behavior represents the somewhat
symmetrical nature of liquidity costs and difficulty of sourcing particular bonds
during a market rally.
The overall USBIG Corporate index has recovered in value since the lows of
March. Correspondingly, the price liquidity ratio has fallen in May, but remains
above the start of year average.
We can also observe the overall transaction behavior since the start of the year.
In Figure 2. below, this is represented by the average transaction size, which
also climbed during the initial volatility period as market participants reacted to
market events. Average trade sizes have fallen since around March 12 though,
potentially as a response to the liquidity crunch.
Figure 2. Investment grade corporate price liquidity ratio and average trade size
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
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Avera
ge T
rade S
ize (1
,000s)
Price L
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atio %
per
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00 t
rade
PLR % per 100,000 Avg Trade Size
Average trade size rose at the start
of market volatility in March, but then
fell as liquidity costs reached their
highest levels.
ftserussell.com 5
USD high yield corporate bonds
Figure 3. High yield corporate price liquidity ratio and index return
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
As shown in the Figure 3. above, the high yield markets also began to
experience dramatic falls in valuation around the second week of March. The
price liquidity ratio also began to climb during this period, registering more
difficult liquidity conditions. The one-month rolling average price liquidity ratio
rose from 0.03% at the end of February to 0.17% at the start of April. Unlike IG
bonds, high yield markets have not returned to pre-crisis levels given the
increased perceived risks of default. Correspondingly, the price liquidity ratio
continues to see significant spikes and has not returned to a lower average rate.
It may also be useful to look at the liquidity costs of average-sized trades, and
this is shown below in Figure 4. Since the average par-amount trade size is
around 200,000 in the HY markets and around 300,000 in the IG markets, a
higher liquidity ratio for HY suggests significantly lower overall liquidity.
Additionally, as shown above in Figure 2., while the price liquidity ratio increased
in March, the average trade size for IG bonds fell, potentially as a strategy to
keep overall transaction costs lower. Figure 4. confirms that the liquidity ratio for
an average IG trade did not increase much past 0.4% in March, in part due to
this lower trade size.
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Ind
ex V
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Price L
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PLR % per 100,000 HYM Index Return
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Figure 4. IG and HY corporate price liquidity ratio
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
Investment grade sector liquidity Returning to IG bonds, it is informative to look at more detailed behavior of
liquidity at the sector level, where the picture becomes more complex.
The Financial - Bank (FBNK) sector has remained the most liquid through the
crisis, likely reflecting the comparatively lower operational disruptions to that
industry. This sector continues to be relatively more liquid than the wider index.
The Financial - Other (FOTH) sector, which contains many Real Estate
Investment Trust and Leasing company bonds has experienced some of the
highest jumps in liquidity. Interestingly, the Financial - Insurance (FINS) sector
also saw higher transaction costs during the April 9 rally, possibly indicating the
difficulty of sourcing relatively long-dated insurance bonds. Note, the Financial –
Independent sector is particularly small and has too few trades to draw
conclusions about its liquidity.
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0.60%
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Price L
iquid
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atio %
per
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rade S
ize
IG Price Liquidity Ratio HY Price Liquidity Ratio
High Yield liquidity costs are
consistently higher than Investment
Grade. Additionally, these higher
costs are based on smaller average
transaction sizes.
ftserussell.com 7
Figure 5a. Financials - Bank
Figure 5b. Financials - Independent
Figure 5c. Financials - Insurance
Figure 5d. Financials - Other
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
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2020-01-02 2020-03-02 2020-05-02
Index V
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Price L
iquid
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FBNK FBNK_Ret
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0.50%
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2020-01-02 2020-03-02 2020-05-02
Index V
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Price L
iquid
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atio %
FIND FIND_Ret
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Index V
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Price L
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atio %
FINS FINS_Ret
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Index V
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Price L
iquid
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atio %
FOTH FOTH_Ret
The Financials – Bank sector
remained relatively liquid throughout
the market volatility period.
The Financials – Independent sector
contains around 12 bonds so may
not provide a representative
average.
The Financials – Insurance sector
has the longest Effective Duration of
the financial sector and saw the
highest liquidity cost spike during the
April market rebound.
The Financials – Other sector
contains bonds linked to aircraft
leasing and real estate and saw
some of the highest liquidity costs of
the financials sectors.
ftserussell.com 8
The Industrials sectors also saw high jumps in liquidity costs, reflecting the business
outlook uncertainly and operational challenges. Both the Transportation (ITRN) and
Energy (IEGY) sectors saw the highest spikes in transaction costs during the volatile
market periods. The Consumer (ICON), Manufacturing (IMAN) and Services (ISRV)
sectors have remained relatively more liquid throughout the period, though the
sectors also saw a jump in transaction costs during the April 9 rally.
Figure 6a. Industrials - Consumer
Figure 6b. Industrials - Energy
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IEGY IEGY_Ret
The Industrials – Consumer sector
remained comparatively liquid
throughout the market volatility in
March.
The Industrials – Energy sector was
one of the most affected and saw
Price Liquidity Ratios rise from
around 0.02% to 0.4% for a 100,000
par-amount trade.
ftserussell.com 9
Figure 6c. Industrials - Manufacturing
Figure 6d. Industrials - Services
Figure 6e. Industrials - Transportation
Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
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atio %
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The Industrials – Manufacturing
sector remained relatively liquid
compared to the Energy sector.
The Industrials – Services sector
remained comparatively liquid
throughout the market volatility in
March.
The Industrials – Transportation
sector saw one of the highest
increases in the Price Liquidity
Ratio, as the industry saw major
operational challenges.
ftserussell.com 10
The Utility sector generally contains longer dated and less liquid bonds. The
crisis combined with wider uncertaintites in the energy markets, saw the Utility
sectors experience some of the highest spikes in transaction costs. The small
Gas (UGAS) sector saw by far the highest liquidity ratios, though this may be
partly down to the small sample size and fewer trades. The larger and more
representative Electric (UELC) sector also saw spikes in liquidity costs. The
Telecom (UTEL) sector is much less affected by energy costs and has remained
relatively liquid throughout the crisis.
Figure 7a. Utilities - Electric
Figure 7b. Utilities - Gas
Figure 7c. Utilities - Telecom
Source for all figure 7: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.
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iquid
ity R
atio %
UELC UELC_Ret
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atio %
UGAS UGAS_Ret
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atio %
UTEL UTEL_Ret
The Utilities – Electric sector saw
large increases in the Price Liquidity
Ratio and saw costs reach 0.4%,
similar to the Industrials – Energy
sector.
The Utilities – Gas sector contains
around 38 bonds, and the large
spike in the Price Liquidity Ratio may
not be representative.
The Utilities – Telecom sector was
the least affected utility sector as the
industry saw fewer operational
challenges.
ftserussell.com 11
The above data suggests that sectors facing high operational challenges have
experienced both greater volatility and decreased liquidity during the crisis.
Companies exposed to energy costs and transportation have been significantly
affected, while telecom and most financial sectors have seen comparatively little
impact. Conversely, it can also be seen that traditionally more stable and long-
dated sectors such as insurance and electric utilities, have experienced spikes in
transaction costs during market rallies as investors saw difficulties in sourcing
these bonds.
ftserussell.com 12
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