Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price...

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Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity June 2020 | ftserussell.com AUTHORS Mikhail Bezroukov VP, Analytics Product Manager +44 7976 161817 [email protected] Yu Zou Director, Yield Book Analytics Development +1 646 989 2174 [email protected]

Transcript of Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price...

Page 1: Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02% at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of

Research

Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity

June 2020 | ftserussell.com

AUTHORS

Mikhail Bezroukov

VP, Analytics Product Manager

+44 7976 161817 [email protected]

Yu Zou

Director, Yield Book Analytics Development

+1 646 989 2174 [email protected]

Page 2: Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02% at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of

ftserussell.com 2

Table of contents Executive summary 3

USD investment grade corporate bonds 3

USD high yield corporate bonds 5

Investment grade sector liquidity 6

Page 3: Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02% at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of

ftserussell.com 3

USD investment grade corporate bonds

Figure 1. Investment grade corporate price liquidity ratio and index return

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

WHO declares pandemic

Fed rate cut

Fed begins bond buying

Fed expands PMCCF and SMCCF and

TALF

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Executive summary The COVID-19 crisis has impacted asset valuations, increased volatility and

led to reduced liquidity in many cases. Most asset classes have been affected,

and governments have stepped in to support financial operations. Below, we

examine the effects of the crisis on the year-to-date liquidity of USD corporate

bonds, as measured by the price liquidity ratio.

The price liquidity ratio calculated by Yield Book looks at market impact and

measures the movement in price of a security for an executed trade of a given

size. The price movement is calculated on an excess of curve basis, and then

aggregated across the given index or sector. A higher ratio represents a larger

movement in price for a given trade size and therefore shows lower liquidity.

For this analysis, we are using executed transaction prices as recorded in the

TRACE database. The liquidity ratios are calculated based on the transaction

volumes for a given day and are then rescaled to represent a 100,000 par

amount trade size.

The Index Price Liquidity Ratio has

fallen since the March volatility

heights; but has not returned to pre-

crisis levels.

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As Figure 1. shows, the crisis has led to a dramatic increase in the price liquidity

ratio, and by extension, the total costs of carrying out a transaction. Markets were

largely unmoved until the second week of March, when trading costs began to

climb rapidly. This correlates with the wider market turmoil that was experienced

in that week. The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02%

at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of April. The USBIG Corporate index

had a return of around -7% during this period, and almost -15% from the most

recent high to lowest point in March.

The liquidity ratio registered several spikes since March and can also be used to

gauge market reaction of various Fed policy actions. Note for example the

reduction of transaction costs after March 23, when the Fed began its corporate

bond buying program.

On the other hand, transaction costs also spiked following the Fed’s April 9

expansion of PMCCF, SMCCF and TALF programs. Since the underlying index

saw positive returns during this period, this behavior represents the somewhat

symmetrical nature of liquidity costs and difficulty of sourcing particular bonds

during a market rally.

The overall USBIG Corporate index has recovered in value since the lows of

March. Correspondingly, the price liquidity ratio has fallen in May, but remains

above the start of year average.

We can also observe the overall transaction behavior since the start of the year.

In Figure 2. below, this is represented by the average transaction size, which

also climbed during the initial volatility period as market participants reacted to

market events. Average trade sizes have fallen since around March 12 though,

potentially as a response to the liquidity crunch.

Figure 2. Investment grade corporate price liquidity ratio and average trade size

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

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Average trade size rose at the start

of market volatility in March, but then

fell as liquidity costs reached their

highest levels.

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ftserussell.com 5

USD high yield corporate bonds

Figure 3. High yield corporate price liquidity ratio and index return

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

As shown in the Figure 3. above, the high yield markets also began to

experience dramatic falls in valuation around the second week of March. The

price liquidity ratio also began to climb during this period, registering more

difficult liquidity conditions. The one-month rolling average price liquidity ratio

rose from 0.03% at the end of February to 0.17% at the start of April. Unlike IG

bonds, high yield markets have not returned to pre-crisis levels given the

increased perceived risks of default. Correspondingly, the price liquidity ratio

continues to see significant spikes and has not returned to a lower average rate.

It may also be useful to look at the liquidity costs of average-sized trades, and

this is shown below in Figure 4. Since the average par-amount trade size is

around 200,000 in the HY markets and around 300,000 in the IG markets, a

higher liquidity ratio for HY suggests significantly lower overall liquidity.

Additionally, as shown above in Figure 2., while the price liquidity ratio increased

in March, the average trade size for IG bonds fell, potentially as a strategy to

keep overall transaction costs lower. Figure 4. confirms that the liquidity ratio for

an average IG trade did not increase much past 0.4% in March, in part due to

this lower trade size.

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Figure 4. IG and HY corporate price liquidity ratio

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

Investment grade sector liquidity Returning to IG bonds, it is informative to look at more detailed behavior of

liquidity at the sector level, where the picture becomes more complex.

The Financial - Bank (FBNK) sector has remained the most liquid through the

crisis, likely reflecting the comparatively lower operational disruptions to that

industry. This sector continues to be relatively more liquid than the wider index.

The Financial - Other (FOTH) sector, which contains many Real Estate

Investment Trust and Leasing company bonds has experienced some of the

highest jumps in liquidity. Interestingly, the Financial - Insurance (FINS) sector

also saw higher transaction costs during the April 9 rally, possibly indicating the

difficulty of sourcing relatively long-dated insurance bonds. Note, the Financial –

Independent sector is particularly small and has too few trades to draw

conclusions about its liquidity.

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IG Price Liquidity Ratio HY Price Liquidity Ratio

High Yield liquidity costs are

consistently higher than Investment

Grade. Additionally, these higher

costs are based on smaller average

transaction sizes.

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ftserussell.com 7

Figure 5a. Financials - Bank

Figure 5b. Financials - Independent

Figure 5c. Financials - Insurance

Figure 5d. Financials - Other

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

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2020-01-02 2020-03-02 2020-05-02

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The Financials – Bank sector

remained relatively liquid throughout

the market volatility period.

The Financials – Independent sector

contains around 12 bonds so may

not provide a representative

average.

The Financials – Insurance sector

has the longest Effective Duration of

the financial sector and saw the

highest liquidity cost spike during the

April market rebound.

The Financials – Other sector

contains bonds linked to aircraft

leasing and real estate and saw

some of the highest liquidity costs of

the financials sectors.

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ftserussell.com 8

The Industrials sectors also saw high jumps in liquidity costs, reflecting the business

outlook uncertainly and operational challenges. Both the Transportation (ITRN) and

Energy (IEGY) sectors saw the highest spikes in transaction costs during the volatile

market periods. The Consumer (ICON), Manufacturing (IMAN) and Services (ISRV)

sectors have remained relatively more liquid throughout the period, though the

sectors also saw a jump in transaction costs during the April 9 rally.

Figure 6a. Industrials - Consumer

Figure 6b. Industrials - Energy

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The Industrials – Consumer sector

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March.

The Industrials – Energy sector was

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Price Liquidity Ratios rise from

around 0.02% to 0.4% for a 100,000

par-amount trade.

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Figure 6c. Industrials - Manufacturing

Figure 6d. Industrials - Services

Figure 6e. Industrials - Transportation

Source: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

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The Industrials – Services sector

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March.

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sector saw one of the highest

increases in the Price Liquidity

Ratio, as the industry saw major

operational challenges.

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The Utility sector generally contains longer dated and less liquid bonds. The

crisis combined with wider uncertaintites in the energy markets, saw the Utility

sectors experience some of the highest spikes in transaction costs. The small

Gas (UGAS) sector saw by far the highest liquidity ratios, though this may be

partly down to the small sample size and fewer trades. The larger and more

representative Electric (UELC) sector also saw spikes in liquidity costs. The

Telecom (UTEL) sector is much less affected by energy costs and has remained

relatively liquid throughout the crisis.

Figure 7a. Utilities - Electric

Figure 7b. Utilities - Gas

Figure 7c. Utilities - Telecom

Source for all figure 7: Yield Book, TRACE. Past performance is no guarantee to future results. Please see the end for important disclosures.

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202

0-0

4-1

6

202

0-0

4-2

3

202

0-0

4-3

0

202

0-0

5-0

7

202

0-0

5-1

4

202

0-0

5-2

1

Index V

alu

e

Price L

iquid

ity R

atio %

UGAS UGAS_Ret

70

80

90

100

110

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

202

0-0

1-0

2

202

0-0

1-0

9

202

0-0

1-1

6

202

0-0

1-2

3

202

0-0

1-3

0

202

0-0

2-0

6

202

0-0

2-1

3

202

0-0

2-2

0

202

0-0

2-2

7

202

0-0

3-0

5

202

0-0

3-1

2

202

0-0

3-1

9

202

0-0

3-2

6

202

0-0

4-0

2

202

0-0

4-0

9

202

0-0

4-1

6

202

0-0

4-2

3

202

0-0

4-3

0

202

0-0

5-0

7

202

0-0

5-1

4

202

0-0

5-2

1

Index V

alu

e

Price L

iquid

ity R

atio %

UTEL UTEL_Ret

The Utilities – Electric sector saw

large increases in the Price Liquidity

Ratio and saw costs reach 0.4%,

similar to the Industrials – Energy

sector.

The Utilities – Gas sector contains

around 38 bonds, and the large

spike in the Price Liquidity Ratio may

not be representative.

The Utilities – Telecom sector was

the least affected utility sector as the

industry saw fewer operational

challenges.

Page 11: Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02% at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of

ftserussell.com 11

The above data suggests that sectors facing high operational challenges have

experienced both greater volatility and decreased liquidity during the crisis.

Companies exposed to energy costs and transportation have been significantly

affected, while telecom and most financial sectors have seen comparatively little

impact. Conversely, it can also be seen that traditionally more stable and long-

dated sectors such as insurance and electric utilities, have experienced spikes in

transaction costs during market rallies as investors saw difficulties in sourcing

these bonds.

Page 12: Research Impact of COVID-19 on USD corporate bond liquidity · The one month rolling average price liquidity ratio rose from 0.02% at the end of February to 0.10% at the start of

ftserussell.com 12

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