Research Article Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on ...

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2013 Article ID 849479 8 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552013849479

Research ArticleModeling the Impacts of Urbanization on RegionalClimate Change A Case Study in the Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitan Area

Jinyan Zhan1 Juan Huang1 Tao Zhao2 Xiaoli Geng3 and Yihui Xiong4

1 State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China2 Bureau of Science and Technology for Development CAS Beijing 100864 China3 School of Resources and Environmental Science Hubei University Hubei 430062 China4 School of Information Engineering China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) Hubei 430074 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Jinyan Zhan zhanjybnueducn

Received 18 July 2013 Revised 23 September 2013 Accepted 7 October 2013

Academic Editor Xiangzheng Deng

Copyright copy 2013 Jinyan Zhan et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

China has experienced rapid urbanization since 1978 and the dramatic change in land cover is expected to have significant impactson the climate change Some models have been used to simulate the relationship between land use and land cover change andclimate change however there is still no sufficient evidence for the impacts of urbanization on the regional climate This studyaims to identify the impact of urban land use change on regional temperature and precipitation in summer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2030ndash2040 based on the analysis of the simulation results of WRF model Firstly we analyzedthe land use change and climate change during 1995ndash2005 in the study areaThe impacts of future urbanization on regional climatechange were then simulatedThe results indicate that urbanization in this area has affected the regional climate and has the potentialto increase temperature and precipitation in the summer of 2030ndash2040 These research results can offer decision-making supportinformation related to future planning strategies in urban environments in consideration of regional climate change

1 Introduction

More than 50 of the worldrsquos people live in cities and theurban population is growing at a much faster rate than theEarthrsquos population as awhole and by larger annual incrementsthan ever before [1] It is expected that 61 of the worldrsquospopulation will reside in urban settlements in 2030 [2] andChinarsquos current plan is to make the proportion of urbanpopulation reach 67 in 2030 shifting 280 million people tocities within two decades [3] Some studies have shown thatthe population size of Chinawill reach the peak around 2030ndash2040 and thereafter decline gradually shifting from the lowgrowth phase to a negative growth phase The climate systeminvolves the land surface atmosphere oceans and other waterbodies the cryosphere and the biosphere and urbanizationwhich is one of the most important human activities that

influence the climate system [4] Urban climates are warmerand more polluted than their rural counterparts [5] Thesedifferences are partly due to the urban expansion whichusually removes and replaces crops and natural vegetationwith nonevaporating and nontranspiring surfaces such asmetal asphalt and concrete [6] There is generally low landsurface albedo vegetative cover and moisture availabilityin urban areas These factors along with the presence ofhigh levels of anthropogenic heating are associated with thephenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) whichdescribes the difference in ambient air temperature betweenan urban area and its surrounding rural area [5] UHI oftenoccurs when a large fraction of the natural land cover in anarea is replaced by the built surfaces that absorb the incomingsolar radiation during the day and then reradiate it at night[7 8] UHI has been the most intensively studied climatic

2 Advances in Meteorology

feature of cities and has been quantified by calculating air orsurface temperature differences between urban and nearbyrural areas [9ndash12]

A number of studies have indicated that there is somerelationship between urbanization and climate change Forexample Bornstein found that there is less intense andless frequent urban surface temperature inversion in NewYork City than in the surrounding nonurban regions [13]The research of Kalnay and Cai suggested that half of theobserved decrease in the diurnal temperature was due tourban expansion and other land use changes [14] Sertelet al indicated that urbanization increased the averagetemperature in Turkey according to the results of simulationwith the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regionalclimate model [15] In fact the WRF model has been widelyused in previous researches that focus on the impacts offuture urbanization on climate change [16 17] What is moreurbanization can also influence the regional precipitation[18] For instance Huff and Vogel and Vogel and Huff foundthat the urban surfacewas themain factor affecting the spatialand temporal pattern and the intensity of short-term rainfallin St LouisMOUSA [19 20] Shepherd et al showed that therainfall was modified by major urban areas according to theobservation data from space-borne rain radar on the TRMM-satellite [21] Many modeling studies have also indicated thatthe urbanization increased the surface convergence on theleeward side of the urban region and consequently led toincreased precipitation [22ndash24] For example Rozoff et alandHeever et al showed that urban-enhanced aerosols couldexert significant influence on the dynamics microphysicsand precipitation once convection was initiated and theimpacts of urban aerosols on the downwind storms decreasewith the background aerosol concentration [24 25]

Previous researches have analyzed the effects of the urbanland surface change at the microscale however it is alsonecessary to study howboth the past and future urbanizationsmight affect the weather and climate In particular it is verynecessary to analyze how these effects can extend beyond thecity affecting the climate at the regional scale [26] It is urgentto develop a metric to quantify how urbanization affects theregional climate since the neglection of these effects will leadto inaccurate analysis results of climate change [4] Besidesthe metropolitan cities in China have shown the ldquospreadingrdquoand ldquoaggressiverdquo expansion accompanied by regional urbandevelopment and megalopolis formation since the reformand opening up [27ndash29] resulting in increasing effects on cli-mate change [30ndash33] Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitanarea is the economic center of northern China and it playsa strategically important role in the political and economicdevelopment of China as a whole [34]Therefore the primaryobjectives of this study are (1) to analyze the relationshipbetween urbanization and climate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 1995ndash2005 and (2) toidentify the impact of urbanization on temperature andprecipitation in summer based on the difference between twoscenario simulations during 2030ndash2040 Section 2 introducesthe study area and the simulation process which also includesthe data resource The results and discussions are shown inSection 3 and Section 4 concludes

2 Data and Methodology

21 Study Area The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitanarea is located in northeast North China Plain between38∘251015840ndash41∘51015840N and 115∘251015840ndash119∘251015840E It covers Beijing Munic-ipality Tianjin Municipality and the cities of TangshanLangfang and Qinhuangdao (TLQ) of Hebei Province witha total area of 55000 km2 and a resident population of29368600 This region is mainly mountain and plain andthe hilly area is 198 km2 The area belongs to the continentalmonsoon climateThe average annual temperature is between10∘C and 12∘C with the mean temperature of minus19∘C inJanuary and 264∘C in July The average annual precipitationis between 75 and 500mm with an uneven time distributionwhich mainly occurs during summer with 72 of the totalannual rainfall

Owing to the superior natural condition and criticalstrategic location of the Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropoli-tan area it is defined as the political cultural and eco-nomic center of China The National Eleventh Five-YearPlan concluded the development of this region The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area developed quickly withhigh land use intensity especially in large-scale science andtechnology parks economic zones industrial parks andother new development zones Thus the conflict betweenrapid city growth and water and soil resources has becomeincreasingly pronounced [35] and currently it is one of themost stressed areas for such problems in China

22 Simulation Scheme TheWeather Research and Forecast-ing (WRF)model based on the Eulerianmass solver was usedin this study to investigate the temperature and precipitationchange driven by the future urban expansion in the studyarea This mesoscale model is a state-of-the-art atmosphericsimulation system based on the Fifth-Generation PennStateNCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) [34] and it has beenwidely used in global climate and regional climate researchand it has achieved good results [36ndash40]

This study simulated the climate change in the Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitan area during 2030ndash2040 basedon two tests with the WRF model Two simulation tests wereconducted for the summer (JunendashAugust) during 2030ndash2040(Table 1) with the WRF model under the same conditionexcept the underlying surface in order to indicate the impactof urbanization on temperature and precipitation First theunderlying surface data of 1992-1993 in the WRF modelwas replaced since it cannot exactly reflect the land surfacecondition after 2000 The land cover data in 2010 were usedas the underlying surface data for the control test and theland cover data in 2030 predicted on the basis of the trendof social-economic simulation were used for the sensitivitytest Then the simulation results of the control test andsensitivity test were compared and the effects of urbanizationon the summer temperature and precipitation were finallyexamined The effects of the future urban expansion on theclimate can be explained with 119864

119894 Consider the following

119864

119894= 119877

119894minus 119903

119894 (1)

Advances in Meteorology 3

Table 1 Schemes of the simulation test

Test Test time Land cover data used in WRFControltest 20300101ndash20401231 Land cover data of 2010

Sensitivitytest 20300101ndash20401231 Land cover data of 2030

Table 2 Configuration of the physical parameterization schemes inWRF

Physical processes Scheme optionMicrophysics scheme Lin et al [16]Cumulus scheme Grell-Devenyi ensembleLand surface process Noah land surface modelPlanetary boundary layer process YSU schemeShort-wave radiation CAM schemeLong-wave radiation CAM scheme

where 119894 refers to the precipitation and temperature 119864119894is the

effect of the future urbanization on the climate119877119894is the result

of the simulation with the predicted underlying surface and119903

119894is the result of the simulation with the baseline underlying

surfaceThe parameterization schemes in this study are listed in

Table 2 The Grell-Devenyi ensemble scheme was adoptedin the cumulus parameterization scheme with YSU beingthe boundary layer process scheme and the CAM schemebeing both long-wave radiation and short-wave radiationschemes while the land surface process scheme was theNoah land surface model The boundary buffer was set tobe 4 layers of grid points and the relaxation scheme wasadopted in the boundary conditions The time interval of themodel integration was set to be 5 minutes and that of theradiation process and cumulus convection was 30 minutesand 5 minutes respectively There were 27 layers in thevertical direction and the atmospheric pressure at the toplayer was 50 hPa

The lateral boundary forcing data was from the NationalCenters for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) operationalGlobal Final (FNL) Analyses (NCEPFNL) and was updatedevery 6 hours The dataset was established on the basis ofthe assimilation of almost all kinds of observational data(eg remote sensing data and ground-based observationdata) with a spatial resolution of 1∘times 1∘ gird and a verticalheight of 27 layers and it has been updated to the presenttime since July 1999 Compared with the dataset of NCEPI NCEP II and EAR40 the NCEPFNL not only has thehigher accuracy and spatial resolution but also involvesmore kinds of environmental variables The data of futureforce filed were from the fifth phase of the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project (CMIP5) which produces a state-of-the-art multimodel dataset The model output analyzed byresearches forms the basis for the Fifth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [41] andtwo time scales of projections of future climate change areprovided The first one is the near term (out to about 2035)and the other one is the long term (out to 2100 and beyond)

Model output of the RCP 60 such as air temperature specifichumidity sea level pressure eastward wind northward windand geopotential height from 2010 to 2040 was used as theatmospheric forcing dataset of the WRF model

Urban land use data which were extracted from LandsatTM images in 1995 and Landsat ETM images from the China-Brazil Earth Resources satellite (CBERS) in 2005 [42 43] wasacquired from the data center of the Chinese Academy ofSciences The land use change during 1995 to 2005 has beendescribed in Table 3 The predicted land use and land coverdata in 2030were derived from the database of RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP 60)The new urban area pixelsduring 2010ndash2030 derived from RCP 60 were overlaid tothe map of baseline underlying surface then the underlyingsurface data in 2030 was transformed to grid data of 30 km lowast30 km of USGS data by resampling

3 Results and Discussion

31 Spatiotemporal Pattern of Urban Expansion since 1995The urban expansion is one of the key characteristics of landuse change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitanarea from 1995 to 2005 the spatiotemporal pattern of whichwas analyzed according to the remote sensing data (Table 3)During 1995 and 2005 the total area of cultivated land andforests decreased by 098 and 215 respectively whilethe urban land area increased by 334 with an averageannual rate of 033 Urban expansion is the main drivingfactor of the shrinkage of cultivated land and forests Thecenter of urban expansion has shifted from Beijing mega-city to the periphery cities such as Tianjin and Tangshandue to the regional development strategies and population-resource-environment pressures [34] The socioeconomicdevelopment and geographical factors such as the populationgrowth policy and economic development all affect theurban expansion and subsequent landscape changes

32 Spatiotemporal Change of the Temperature and Pre-cipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Areaduring 1995ndash2005 There was slight temperature change inthe Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area from 1995to 2005 (Figure 1) Overall the temperature showed anincreasing trend in most parts of the study area especiallyaround metropolitan Beijing and in the costal metropolitanarea of Tianjin and Tangshan with an average increasingrate of 0023∘Cyear However the temperature has decreasedto some degree in the northeast and northwest part of thestudy area The regions that converted from other land usetypes into cities have shown relatively higher temperaturerise indicating that the urbanization has some influence ontemperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitanarea At the same time the precipitation showed a rising trendin metropolitan Tangshan and northeast parts of BeijingMetropolitan while it showed a downward trend in the westand south part of Beijing According to the results mentionedabove it can be concluded that the process of urbaniza-tion in this region has affected the regional temperature


Table 3 Land use changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area 1995ndash2005

Yearperiod Cultivated land () Forestry area () Grassland () Water area () Built-up area () Unused land ()1995 4848 2459 632 554 1414 0922005 4750 2245 674 508 1748 076Change 2005ndash1996lowast minus010 minus021 004 minus005 033 minus002Note lowastrepresents the change rate calculated with the following equation (1198602005

119894

minus 119860

1995

119894

)(10) where 1198602005119894

means the area proportion of land use type 119894 in2005 and 1198601995

119894

means the area proportion of land use type 119894 in 1995

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

0 50 100(km)

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0102030405

minus04minus03minus02minus010

(a)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

150200250

minus50050100

(b)

Figure 1 Simulated changes of temperature (a) and precipitation (b) in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 1995ndash2005

and precipitation to a certain extent in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area

33 Urban Area Change from 2010 to 2030 There will beobvious conversion from other land use types to urban areain Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2010ndash2030 (Figure 2) The urban area in the study area would con-tinue to increase during 2010ndash2030 and the newly increasedurban land will mainly be concentrated in the regions aroundthe downtown of Beijing and Tianjin City The land useconversion mainly results from the joint effects of both theinternal factors and external factors such as the terrain trafficand economic factors behaviors of the government andcultural tradition [44] The land cover data in 2010 and 2030were put into the WRF model and two separate numericaltests were carried out the simulation results of which werecompared and thereafter the urbanization impacts of urbanexpansion on the climate were examined

34 Results of the Numerical Simulation Figure 3 depictedthe simulated impact of future urban expansion on the aver-age annual temperature in the study area during 2030ndash2040

There will be significant warming effects in the summermainly occurring in the downtown and eastern part of BeijingMetropolitan The transformation of vegetated land to urbanland results in significant differences of near-surface temper-ature As a result the temperature would increase obviouslyin the regions with urban expansion mainly owning to theurban heat island effect which is consistent with the resultsof previous researches [16 45 46]

The surface temperature is determined with the surfaceenergy balance equation Consider the following

minus120588119871V(1199081015840

119902

1015840

)

sfc+ 119877

119899minus 119878 minus 120588119888

119901119862

ℎ119906 (119879sfc minus 119879) = 0 (2)

where the first item refers to the latent heat flux the seconditem refers to the net radiation flux the third item refers tothe soil heat flux and the forth item refers to the sensible heatflux

Part of the net radiation flux is absorbed by the Earthrsquossurface which further influences the latent heat flux andsensible heat flux with the rest being transformed into the soil


Urban and built-up landDryland cropland and pastureIrrigated cropland and pastureMixed drylandirrigated cropland and pastureCroplandgrassland mosaicCroplandwoodland mosaicGrasslandShrublandMixed shrublandgrasslandSavannaDeciduous broadleaf forestEvergreen broadleaf forestEvergreen needleleaf forestMixed forestWater bodiesHerbaceous wetlandBarren or sparsely vegetated

Urban expansion during 2010ndash2030

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

0 50 100(km)

Figure 2 Conversion from other land use types to urban area inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2010 to 2030

and soil heat flux The heat transfer in soil complies with thethermal diffusion equation Consider the following

119862 (Θ)

120597Θ

120597119905

=

120597

120597119911

(119870

119905(Θ)

120597119879

120597119905

) (3)

where 119879 is the soil layer temperature Θ refers to the soilwater content 119862 means the specific heat of soil layer 119870

119905is

the thermal conduction systemThere will be many more populations in the new cities

which will need and consume a lot of heatpower due to theiractivities (transportation air conditioning and industries)thus exerting significant impacts on the balance of surfaceenergy It has been reported that the surface temperature isdetermined by the radiation flux sensible heat flux latentheat flux specific heat of soil layer and thermal conductionsystem while the surface temperature also affects the sensibleheat flux and latent heat flux [47 48] In the urbanized area

12

16

0

04

08

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

0 50 100(km)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

Figure 3 Projected summer temperature difference of monthlyaverage temperature between control test and sensitivity test inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area 2030ndash2040

the surface temperature which magnifies the sensible heatflux and the soil heat flux will rise due to the increase of thenet surface short-wave radiation and decrease of the latentheat flux All these changes alongwith the increase of human-induced heat emission will lead to the temperature rise [49]

The urban expansion has significant impacts on theprecipitation in the summer during 2030ndash2040 in the studyarea (see Figure 4) In general there is obvious heterogeneityof the local precipitation change and there will be someprecipitation increase in the urban areas which may be dueto the extended urban boundary and increased secondaryoutflow activity Shepherd also showed that the expansion offuture urban land covermight result in amore expensive areaof rainfall [50] Urbanization would increase the emissionof atmospheric pollutants cause the heat island effect andlead to the land use change The volatile air layer can leadto the thermal convection easily due to the urban heat islandeffect which can increase thermal convection and convectiveprecipitation Moreover buildings of different heights cannot only cause mechanical turbulence but also hinder themoving slowprecipitation system thus leading to the increaseof precipitation At the same time there are intensive humanactivities in the urban regions which lead to the emissionof a large amount of greenhouse gases aerosol and otherparticulatematters On the one hand thesematerials increasethe condensationnucleus for precipitation on the other handthese materials intensify the urban heat island effect in theurban regions Under the condition of sufficient moisturethere will be more precipitation due to the increased con-densation nucleus above the municipal areas and relativelyhigh underlying surface temperature which may account for


60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

Figure 4 Projected summer precipitation difference of monthlyaverage precipitation between control test and sensitivity test inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area 2030ndash2040

the increase of precipitation in this region in the summerIn summary the hydroclimate will be directly and indirectlyaffected by the urban land cover change [51] and the urbanexpansion will exert more influence on the local climate asthe urban development continues

4 Conclusions

The urban climate change results from the interactionbetween human activities and local climate change in essenceThe change of underlying surface properties human-inducedheat emission and so forth will lead to the difference betweenthe urban and rural temperature which will further changethe local climate forcing field and consequently lead to theredistribution of climate factors such as the wind cloudand precipitation This study investigated the contributionof urban land use change to the change of temperature andprecipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan areaduring 2030ndash2040 with the WRF model based on the latestactual urban land cover data from 1995 to 2005

The impact of urbanization on regional climate changeis a very complex and challenging problem and it is stillnecessary to carry out more in-depth research since thereare still some uncertainties in the results of this study Forexample more efforts should be made to more compre-hensively investigate the contribution of urbanization to thechange in the annual temperature and precipitation extremeclimate latent heat flux at the land surface wave flux atground surface and so forth Meanwhile it is necessary tocarry out further research on how to quantitatively measurethe inner link between the urban development and climate

factors and how this inner link will change as the climatefactors change For instance this study demonstrates thatthe urban expansion was the most significant land use andland cover change in the study area during 1995ndash2005 whichinfluenced the regional temperature and precipitation tosome degree There was an obvious warming effect in theurbanized regions and their surrounding regions where theprecipitation amount also increased to some degree Theurban area in this region would increase continuously andthe urban expansion leads to the continual rise of localtemperature and will make the precipitation in summer showan increasing trendduring 2030ndash2040These changeswere alldue to the complex interactions between the land surface andurban process

The results of this study indicate that the anthropogenicland cover change has significant impacts on the regionalclimate of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan areawhich can provide scientific reference for the optimization ofthe future land use in consideration of the regional climatechange The government can take some useful measuresaccording to the result of this study to mitigate the climatechange For example it is necessary for the government toincrease the proportion of the urban green land in the urbanland use planning and Consider the urban forests as animportant component of the ecological infrastructure to pro-mote the ability of cities to adapt to climate change since theurbanizationwill continue Besides it is urgent to regulate thebalance between supply and demand of water resources andreinforce the ability of cities to cope with the flood damagesince the future climate change may decrease the stability ofthe water supply system and consequently threaten the watersupply safety in the water sources of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area For example the governmentshould adjust the design standards of infrastructures suchas the water reservoirs flood control facilities and drainagesystems and integrate the water drainage function of therainwater collection system and natural landscapes in orderto improve the ability of cities to cope with rainstorms Inaddition it is necessary to implement the retreat plans inthe regions susceptible to floods or set these regions as parksso as to reduce the loss from floods to the smallest extentMeanwhile it is urgent to improve the ability to monitorforecast and cope with the extreme weather events

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests re-garding the publication of this paper

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Program forDeveloping Basic Science in China (Grant no 2010CB950-900) Data support from the projects funded by the NationalNatural Science Foundation of China is also appreciated(Grant no 41171434 Grant no 70503025 and Grant no70873118)


References

[1] World Resources InstituteWorld Resources 1996ndash97TheUrbanEnvironment World Resources Institute 1996

[2] UN World Urbanization Prospects The 2003 Revision UnitedNational Population Division Department of Economic andSocial Affairs United Nations Secretariat New York NY USA2004

[3] Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Blue Book on Micro Econ-omy Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 2010

[4] R A Pielke Sr G Marland R A Betts et al ldquoThe influence ofland-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate systemrelevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effectof greenhouse gasesrdquo Philosophical Transactions of the RoyalSociety A vol 360 no 1797 pp 1705ndash1719 2002

[5] D J Sailor ldquoSimulated urban climate response to modificationsin surface albedo and vegetative coverrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 34 no 7 pp 1694ndash1704 1995

[6] QWeng ldquoFractal analysis of satellite-detected urban heat islandeffectrdquo Photogrammetric Engineering amp Remote Sensing vol 69no 5 pp 555ndash566 2003

[7] T R Oke ldquoThe energetic basis of the urban heat islandrdquoQuarterly Journal RoyalMeteorological Society vol 108 no 455pp 1ndash24 1982

[8] D A Quattrochi J C Luvall D L Rickman J EstesMG C ALaymon and B F Howell ldquoA decision support information sys-tem for urban landscape management using thermal infrareddata decision support systemsrdquo Photogrammetric Engineeringamp Remote Sensing vol 66 no 10 pp 1195ndash1207 2000

[9] Z Bottyan A Kircsi S Szegedi and J Unger ldquoThe relationshipbetween built-up areas and the spatial development of themean maximum urban heat island in Debrecen HungaryrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 25 no 3 pp 405ndash4182005

[10] M S Alonso J L Labajo and M R Fidalgo ldquoCharacteristicsof the urban heat island in the city of Salamanca SpainrdquoAtmosfera vol 16 no 3 pp 137ndash148 2003

[11] J Unger Z Sumeghy and J Zoboki ldquoTemperature cross-sectionfeatures in an urban areardquo Atmospheric Research vol 58 no 2pp 117ndash127 2001

[12] K Klysik and K Fortuniak ldquoTemporal and spatial character-istics of the urban heat island of Lodz Polandrdquo AtmosphericEnvironment vol 33 no 24-25 pp 3885ndash3895 1999

[13] R D Bornstein ldquoObservations of the urban heat island effect inNew York cityrdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 7 no 4 pp575ndash582 1968

[14] E Kalnay and M Cai ldquoImpact of urbanization and land-usechange on climaterdquoNature vol 423 no 6939 pp 528ndash531 2003

[15] E Sertel C Ormeci and A Robock ldquoModelling land coverchange impact on the summer climate of the Marmara RegionTurkeyrdquo International Journal of Global Warming vol 3 no 1pp 194ndash202 2011

[16] Y Lin A Liu E Ma X Li and Q Shi ldquoImpacts of future urbanexpansion on regional climate in the Northeast MegalopolisUSArdquo Advances in Meteorology vol 2013 Article ID 362925 10pages 2013

[17] MGeorgesceMMoustaoui AMahalov and J Dudhia ldquoSum-mertime climate impacts of projected megapolitan expasion inArizonardquo Natural Climate Change vol 3 no 1 pp 37ndash41 2012

[18] S A Changnon Jr and F A Huff ldquoThe urban-related nocturnalrainfall anomaly at St Louisrdquo Journal of Climate amp AppliedMeteorology vol 25 no 12 pp 1985ndash1995 1986

[19] F A Huff and J L Vogel ldquoUrban topographic and diurnaleffects on rainfall in the St Louis regionrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology and Climatology vol 17 no 5 pp 565ndash577 1978

[20] J L Vogel and F A Huff ldquoRelation between the St Louis Urbanrainfall anomaly and synoptic weather factorsrdquo Journal ofApplied Meteorology and Climatology vol 17 no 17 pp 1141ndash1152 1978

[21] JM ShepherdH Pierce andA J Negri ldquoRainfallmodificationby major urban areas observations from spaceborne rain radaron the TRMM satelliterdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 41no 7 pp 689ndash701 2002

[22] M RHjelmfelt ldquoNumerical simulation of the effects of St Louison mesoscale boundary-layer airflow and vertical air motionsimulations of urban vs non-urban effectsrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology vol 21 no 9 pp 1239ndash1257 1982

[23] K J Craig and R D Bornstein ldquoMM5 simulation of urbaninduced convective precipitation over Atlantardquo in Proceedingsof the 4th Symposium on the Urban Environment San Jose SateUniversity Norfolk Va USA 2002

[24] CM RozoffW R Cotton and J O Adegoke ldquoSimulation of StLouis Missouri land use impacts on thunder stormsrdquo Journalof Applied Meteorology vol 42 no 6 pp 716ndash738 2003

[25] V D Heever C Susan and W R Cotton ldquoUrban aerosolimpacts on downwind convective stormsrdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology and Climatology vol 46 no 6 pp 828ndash850 2007

[26] H L Thompson Modelling the impact of urbanisation on theregional climate of the Greater London area [PhD thesis]University of Birminghan 2009

[27] X Deng J Huang S Rozelle and E Uchida ldquoGrowth popula-tion and industrialization and urban land expansion of ChinardquoJournal of Urban Economics vol 63 no 1 pp 96ndash115 2008

[28] X Deng J Huang S Rozelle and E Uchida ldquoEconomic growthand the expansion of urban land in Chinardquo Urban Studies vol47 no 4 pp 813ndash843 2010

[29] L Jiang X Deng and S Karen ldquoMulti-level modeling of urbanexpansion and cultivated land conversion for urban hotspotcounties in Chinardquo Landscape and Urban Planning vol 108 no2ndash4 pp 131ndash139 2012

[30] T Tang S Ran andM Tan ldquoUrbanization and its impact on theevapotranspiration in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan areardquo Journalof Geo-Information Science vol 15 no 2 pp 233ndash240 2013

[31] C L Zhang F Chen S G Miao Q C Li X A Xia andC Y Xuan ldquoImpacts of urban expansion and future greenplanting on summer precipitation in the Beijing metropolitanareardquo Journal of Geophysical Research D vol 114 no 2 ArticleID D02116 2009

[32] J Liu and X Deng ldquoInfluence of different land use on urbanmicroenvironment in Beijing City Chinardquo Journal of FoodAgriculture and Environment vol 9 no 3-4 pp 1005ndash1011 2011

[33] X Deng C Zhao and H Yan ldquoSystematic modeling of impactsof land use and land cover changes on regional climate areviewrdquo Advances in Meteorology vol 2013 Article ID 31767811 pages 2013

[34] W Kuang J Liu and Q Shao ldquoSimulating dynamic urban ex-pansion at reginal scale in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshanmetropoli-tan areardquo Journal of Geographic Science vol 66 no 2 pp 178ndash188 2011

[35] M Mohan and S Bhati ldquoAnalysis of WRF model performanceover subtropical region of Delhi Indiardquo Advances in Meteorol-ogy vol 2011 Article ID 621235 13 pages 2011


[36] J Chen P ZhaoH Liu andXGuo ldquoModeling impacts of vege-tation in western China on the summer climate of northwesternChinardquoAdvances inAtmospheric Sciences vol 26 no 4 pp 803ndash812 2009

[37] A Garcia T Schoenemeyer A Jazcilevich G Ruiz-Suarezand V Fuentes-Gea ldquoImplementation of the multiscale climatechemistry model (MCCM) for Central Mexicordquo in Proceedingsof the 8th International Conference on Air Pollution vol 8 pp71ndash78 July 2000

[38] A D Jazcilevich A R Garcıa and L G Ruız-Suarez ldquoAmodel-ing study of air pollution modulation through land-use changein the Valley of Mexicordquo Atmospheric Environment vol 36 no14 pp 2297ndash2307 2002

[39] M Wang X Yan J Liu and X Zhang ldquoThe contribution ofurbanization to recent extreme heat events and a potential mit-igation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Heibe metrololitan areardquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology 2013

[40] R Qu X Cui H Yan EMa and J Zhan ldquoImpacts of land coverchange on the near-surface temperature in the North ChinaPlainrdquo Advances in Meteorology vol 2013 Article ID 40930212 pages 2013

[41] K E Taylor R J Stouffer and G A Meehl ldquoAn overview ofCMIP5 and the experiment designrdquo Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society vol 93 no 4 pp 485ndash498 2012

[42] J Liu M Liu D Zhuang Z Zhang and X Deng ldquoStudy onspatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995ndash2000rdquoScience in China D vol 46 no 4 pp 373ndash384 2003

[43] J Liu Z Zhang X Xu et al ldquoSpatial patterns and driving forcesof land use change in China during the early 21st centuryrdquoJournal of Geographical Sciences vol 20 no 4 pp 483ndash4942010

[44] J Wang C He Y Dong L Gao and W Xu ldquoAnalysis of landuse cover driving forces in the urban fringe of Beijing cityrdquoAndvance in Sciences vol 17 pp 201ndash208 2002

[45] L Bounoua A Safia J Masek C Peters-Lidard and M LImhoff ldquoImpact of urban growth on surface climate a casestudy in Oran Algeriardquo Journal of Applied Meteorology andClimatology vol 48 no 2 pp 217ndash231 2009

[46] Y Ezber O L Sen T Kindap and M Karaca ldquoClimatic effectsof urbanization in Istanbul a statistical and modeling analysisrdquoInternational Journal of Climatology vol 27 no 5 pp 667ndash6792007

[47] J A Voogt and C S B Grimmond ldquoModeling surface sensibleheat flux using surface radiative temperatures in a simple urbanareardquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 39 no 10 pp 1679ndash1699 2000

[48] F Miglietta B Gioli Y Brunet et al ldquoSensible and latent heatflux from radiometric surface temperatures at the regional scalemethodology and evaluationrdquo Biogeosciences vol 6 no 10 pp1975ndash1986 2009

[49] S-G Miao F Chen Q-C Li and S-Y Fan ldquoMonth-averagedimpacts of urbanization on atmospheric boundary layer struc-ture and precipitation in summer in Beijing areardquo ChineseJournal of Geophysics vol 53 no 7 pp 1580ndash1593 2010

[50] J Marshall Shepherd M Carter M Manyin D Messen and SBurian ldquoThe impact of urbanization on current and futurecoastal precipitation a case study for Houstonrdquo Environmentand Planning B vol 37 no 2 pp 284ndash304 2010

[51] J M Shepherd and T L Mote ldquoUrban effects on rainfall vari-ability potential implications for Georgiarsquos water supplyrdquo inProceedings of the Georgia Water Resources Conference AthensGa USA 2009

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of


EarthquakesJournal of


Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering


GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of


OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in


MineralogyInternational Journal of


MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014


Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


feature of cities and has been quantified by calculating air orsurface temperature differences between urban and nearbyrural areas [9ndash12]

A number of studies have indicated that there is somerelationship between urbanization and climate change Forexample Bornstein found that there is less intense andless frequent urban surface temperature inversion in NewYork City than in the surrounding nonurban regions [13]The research of Kalnay and Cai suggested that half of theobserved decrease in the diurnal temperature was due tourban expansion and other land use changes [14] Sertelet al indicated that urbanization increased the averagetemperature in Turkey according to the results of simulationwith the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regionalclimate model [15] In fact the WRF model has been widelyused in previous researches that focus on the impacts offuture urbanization on climate change [16 17] What is moreurbanization can also influence the regional precipitation[18] For instance Huff and Vogel and Vogel and Huff foundthat the urban surfacewas themain factor affecting the spatialand temporal pattern and the intensity of short-term rainfallin St LouisMOUSA [19 20] Shepherd et al showed that therainfall was modified by major urban areas according to theobservation data from space-borne rain radar on the TRMM-satellite [21] Many modeling studies have also indicated thatthe urbanization increased the surface convergence on theleeward side of the urban region and consequently led toincreased precipitation [22ndash24] For example Rozoff et alandHeever et al showed that urban-enhanced aerosols couldexert significant influence on the dynamics microphysicsand precipitation once convection was initiated and theimpacts of urban aerosols on the downwind storms decreasewith the background aerosol concentration [24 25]

Previous researches have analyzed the effects of the urbanland surface change at the microscale however it is alsonecessary to study howboth the past and future urbanizationsmight affect the weather and climate In particular it is verynecessary to analyze how these effects can extend beyond thecity affecting the climate at the regional scale [26] It is urgentto develop a metric to quantify how urbanization affects theregional climate since the neglection of these effects will leadto inaccurate analysis results of climate change [4] Besidesthe metropolitan cities in China have shown the ldquospreadingrdquoand ldquoaggressiverdquo expansion accompanied by regional urbandevelopment and megalopolis formation since the reformand opening up [27ndash29] resulting in increasing effects on cli-mate change [30ndash33] Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitanarea is the economic center of northern China and it playsa strategically important role in the political and economicdevelopment of China as a whole [34]Therefore the primaryobjectives of this study are (1) to analyze the relationshipbetween urbanization and climate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 1995ndash2005 and (2) toidentify the impact of urbanization on temperature andprecipitation in summer based on the difference between twoscenario simulations during 2030ndash2040 Section 2 introducesthe study area and the simulation process which also includesthe data resource The results and discussions are shown inSection 3 and Section 4 concludes

2 Data and Methodology

21 Study Area The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitanarea is located in northeast North China Plain between38∘251015840ndash41∘51015840N and 115∘251015840ndash119∘251015840E It covers Beijing Munic-ipality Tianjin Municipality and the cities of TangshanLangfang and Qinhuangdao (TLQ) of Hebei Province witha total area of 55000 km2 and a resident population of29368600 This region is mainly mountain and plain andthe hilly area is 198 km2 The area belongs to the continentalmonsoon climateThe average annual temperature is between10∘C and 12∘C with the mean temperature of minus19∘C inJanuary and 264∘C in July The average annual precipitationis between 75 and 500mm with an uneven time distributionwhich mainly occurs during summer with 72 of the totalannual rainfall

Owing to the superior natural condition and criticalstrategic location of the Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropoli-tan area it is defined as the political cultural and eco-nomic center of China The National Eleventh Five-YearPlan concluded the development of this region The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area developed quickly withhigh land use intensity especially in large-scale science andtechnology parks economic zones industrial parks andother new development zones Thus the conflict betweenrapid city growth and water and soil resources has becomeincreasingly pronounced [35] and currently it is one of themost stressed areas for such problems in China

22 Simulation Scheme TheWeather Research and Forecast-ing (WRF)model based on the Eulerianmass solver was usedin this study to investigate the temperature and precipitationchange driven by the future urban expansion in the studyarea This mesoscale model is a state-of-the-art atmosphericsimulation system based on the Fifth-Generation PennStateNCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) [34] and it has beenwidely used in global climate and regional climate researchand it has achieved good results [36ndash40]

This study simulated the climate change in the Beijing-Tianjin-TangshanMetropolitan area during 2030ndash2040 basedon two tests with the WRF model Two simulation tests wereconducted for the summer (JunendashAugust) during 2030ndash2040(Table 1) with the WRF model under the same conditionexcept the underlying surface in order to indicate the impactof urbanization on temperature and precipitation First theunderlying surface data of 1992-1993 in the WRF modelwas replaced since it cannot exactly reflect the land surfacecondition after 2000 The land cover data in 2010 were usedas the underlying surface data for the control test and theland cover data in 2030 predicted on the basis of the trendof social-economic simulation were used for the sensitivitytest Then the simulation results of the control test andsensitivity test were compared and the effects of urbanizationon the summer temperature and precipitation were finallyexamined The effects of the future urban expansion on theclimate can be explained with 119864

119894 Consider the following

119864

119894= 119877

119894minus 119903

119894 (1)






















119894

minus 119860

1995

119894

)(10) where 1198602005119894


119894


120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

0 50 100(km)

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0102030405


(a)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

150200250

minus50050100

(b)







minus120588119871V(1199081015840

119902

1015840

)

sfc+ 119877

119899minus 119878 minus 120588119888

119901119862

ℎ119906 (119879sfc minus 119879) = 0 (2)






119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

0 50 100(km)



119862 (Θ)

120597Θ

120597119905

=

120597

120597119911

(119870

119905(Θ)

120597119879

120597119905

) (3)


119905is



12

16

0

04

08

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

0 50 100(km)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N





60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E



4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments



References






























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in






















119894

minus 119860

1995

119894

)(10) where 1198602005119894


119894


120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

0 50 100(km)

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0102030405


(a)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

150200250

minus50050100

(b)







minus120588119871V(1199081015840

119902

1015840

)

sfc+ 119877

119899minus 119878 minus 120588119888

119901119862

ℎ119906 (119879sfc minus 119879) = 0 (2)






119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

0 50 100(km)



119862 (Θ)

120597Θ

120597119905

=

120597

120597119911

(119870

119905(Θ)

120597119879

120597119905

) (3)


119905is



12

16

0

04

08

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

0 50 100(km)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N





60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E



4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments



References






























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in




119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E115∘E

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

0 50 100(km)



119862 (Θ)

120597Θ

120597119905

=

120597

120597119911

(119870

119905(Θ)

120597119879

120597119905

) (3)


119905is



12

16

0

04

08

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

0 50 100(km)

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N





60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E



4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments



References






























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

41∘N

40∘N

39∘N

0 50 100(km)

119∘E118

∘E117∘E116

∘E

38∘N

40∘N

39∘N

120∘E119

∘E118∘E117

∘E116∘E



4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments



References






























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


References






























































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in



























Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

Research Article Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on ...

Documents

Transcript of Research Article Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on ...