Research Article Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on...

Hindawi Publishing CorporationAdvances in MeteorologyVolume 2013 Article ID 362925 10 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552013362925

Research ArticleImpacts of Future Urban Expansion on Regional Climate in theNortheast Megalopolis USA

Yingzhi Lin1 Anping Liu1 Enjun Ma1 Xing Li1 and Qingling Shi23

1 School of Mathematics and Physics China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) Wuhan 430074 China2 Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China3 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

Correspondence should be addressed to Yingzhi Lin linyzccapigsnrraccn

Received 21 June 2013 Accepted 14 August 2013

Academic Editor Xiangzheng Deng

Copyright copy 2013 Yingzhi Lin et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

In this paper evidences for influences of future urban expansion on regional climate in the Northeast megalopolis USA arepresented The model-based analysis shows that future urban expansion will significantly result in regional climate change Anaverage annual temperature increase ranging from 2∘C to 5∘C in new urban area and an average annual temperature decreaseranging from 040∘C to 120∘C in the south of the megalopolis will be caused by future urban expansion The average annualprecipitation of the simulation area will decrease due to future urban expansion by 575mm 710mm and 835mm in the periodsof 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively The warming effect of future urban expansion in original and new urbanarea and drought effects in nonurban area will be more serious in summer than in winter A cooling effect will turn up in originalurban area in winterThis research further shows that a study at the scale of megalopolis helps to understand the integrated effect ofcombination and interaction of multiple cities and their surrounding areas which may crucially determine regional climate patternand should be highly valued in the future

1 Introduction

Urban expansion is regarded as one of the most noticeableeffects of human activities that cover a very small fractionof Earthrsquos land surface but notably affect climate It usuallyremoves and replaces crops and natural vegetation withnonevaporating and nontranspiring surfaces such as metalasphalt and concrete [1 2] These artificial surfaces arecharacterized by specific thermal properties (albedo thermalconductivity and emissivity) which are different from thoseof nonurban areas [3ndash5] The alteration of regional thermalproperties along with urban expansion will inevitably resultin the redistribution of incoming solar radiation and affectthe surface energy budgets [6 7] Consequently the windvelocity mixing layer depth and thermal structures in theboundary layer as well as the local and regional atmosphericcirculations are changed [8ndash11]

One of the most widely concerned phenomena ofurban-induced climate change is the effect of urban heatisland (UHI) which describes the difference in ambient air

temperature between an urban area and its surrounding ruralarea A lot of researches have been implemented focusing onthe UHI in a single city [12ndash14] Though neglecting the inte-grated effect of combination and interaction of multiple citiesat regional scale these researches help greatly in understand-ing the influences of urban expansion on climate Back in thelate 1960s Bornstein pointed out urban surface temperatureinversions to be less intense and far less frequent than thosein the surrounding nonurban regions [15] Afterwards largequantities of empirical researches have proved that urbanexpansion can inevitably cause local temperature change Forexample the research of Kalnay and Cai suggested that halfof the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is dueto land use changes especially urban expansion [16] Andaccording to the estimation of Rosenzweig et al using globalclimate models (GCMs) the average difference in urban andnonurban minimum temperatures is 30∘C for the Newarkarea and 15∘C for Camden [17] The statistical analysis ofYuan and Bauer using remote sensing data of Minnesotaindicated there is a strong linear relationship between land

2 Advances in Meteorology

surface temperature and percent impervious surface for allseasons [18] Gaffin et al analyzed the historical annualdata of New York and found that the UHI intensificationincrease along with urban expansion is responsible for 13of the total warming that the city had experienced since1900 [19] Imhoff et al found that urban expansion is theprimary driver for the increase in temperature explaining70 of the total variance inland surface temperature inLos Angeles [20] Kleerekoper et al showed that the severetemperature rise in urban environments is caused by heatstresses aggravation of phenomenon UHI along with urbanexpansion [21] Tian et al found that the diurnal temperatureranges have tight correlation with urban areas in their studyof Shenzhen China [22] Besides strengthening UHI effectit has been found that urban expansion can significantlylead to local precipitation change For instance the studyof Marshall Shepherd et al illustrated the positive effectsof urban areas on precipitation enhancement in the west-northwest Houston area and suggested that the future urbanexpansion may lead to temporal and spatial precipitationvariability in coastal urban microclimates [23] And Guo etal showed that the total accumulated precipitation in Beijingdecreases especially in the urbanized region and its distri-bution tends to become more concentrated and intensifiedalong the borderline between urban and nonurban regions[24] All above researches indicate that it is unambiguous thatthe urban expansion can result in local climate change

In addition to researches of small scale and single citythere are evidences suggesting that the impacts of urbanexpansion on climate change are significant at a regionalscale Lin et al found that the urban expansion over Taiwanrsquoswestern plain perturbs thermal and dynamic processes andhence affects the location of thunderstorms and precipitationover western plain [25] Trusilova et al pointed out thatthe urban area in Europe results in an increase of urbanprecipitation in winter (009 plusmn 016mmday) and a precip-itation reduction in summer (minus005 plusmn 022mmday) [26]Jacobson and Ten Hoeve pointed out that urban area ismodeled over 20 years to increase gross global warming by006ndash011 K and the UHI effect may contribute to 2ndash4 ofgross global warming [27] And the researches of Sang etal showed that the urban expansion in the Yangtze RiverDelta China causes obvious fluctuations of regional rainintensity andmore uncertainty of daily precipitation variabil-ity [28] These researches have sufficiently and undisputedlydemonstrated that urban expansion affects local and regionalclimate changes But for mega cities whose urban areas arestill expanding such as New York Beijing Seoul Chicagoand Moscow there are still no sufficient evidences for therelationship between future urban expansion and regionalclimate at the scale of megalopolis And arguments on theeffects of urban expansion on large scale climate still exist[13] In this paper we present some evidences for effects offuture urban expansion on regional climate based on thesimulation of precipitation and temperature in the Northeastmegalopolis of the United States of America (USA)

The primary objective of this study is to determine theinfluences of future urban expansion on regional climate ondifferent time scales in developed megalopolis The major

contribution of this paper is that it provides evidences forinfluences of future urban expansion on regional climateat the scale of megalopolis and helps to understand theintegrated effect of combination and interaction of multiplecities and their surrounding areas The simulation resultsshow that future urban expansion will lead to significantlyclimate change One of the surprising findings is that therewill be a cooling effect in original urban area in winter causedby urban expansion The future urban expansion will resultin an average annual temperature increase ranging from 2∘Cto 5∘C in new urban area and an average annual temperaturedecrease ranging from 040∘C to 120∘C in the south of themegalopolis The average annual precipitation will decreaseby 575mm 710mm and 835mm in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 due to future urban expan-sion respectively And the magnitude of warming effects anddrought effects of future urban expansion will vary with theseasons Our simulation scheme is described in Section 2The atmospheric forcing dataset and the predicted urbanexpansion dataset used in our simulation are also introducedin this section The results and discussions are provided inSection 3 and concluded in the final section

2 Data and Methodology

21 Study Area The Northeast megalopolis is the mostpopulous and largely developed megalopolis of USA Itis constituted by a number of cities including BaltimoreBoston Harrisburg Newark New York City PhiladelphiaPortland Providence Richmond Springfield Hartford andWashington [29] The megalopolisrsquos population is expectedto rise to sixty million by 2025 This megalopolis is chosenas case study area because it is one of the most typicalmegalopolis globally which can be regarded as the exampleof future megalopolis development

22 Simulation Scheme TheWeather Research and Forecast-ing (WRF-ARW) model based on the Eulerian mass solverwas used in this study to investigate the temperature andprecipitation changes driven by future urban expansion in thestudy area This mesoscale model is a state-of-the-art atmo-spheric simulation system based on the Fifth-GenerationPenn StateNCARMesoscale Model (MM5) [30] Simulationfrom 2010 to 2100 with a constant underlying surface (thepattern of urban area as well as other land use and covertypes in the study area is fixed to that of 1993 namelybaseline underlying surface) was implemented first whoseresults are regarded as baseline The effects of future urbanexpansion on climate can be measured by the difference ofthe simulation results with predicted underlying surface andbaseline underlying surface (Figure 1)

119864119894= 119877119894minus 119903119894 (1)

where 119894 refers to average annual and monthly temperaturesand average annual and monthly precipitations 119864 is theeffects of future urban expansion on climate and 119877 and 119903 arethe simulation results of WRF-ARW model with predictedunderlying surface and baseline underlying surface respec-tively

Advances in Meteorology 3

WRF-ARW model

Simulation results with baseline underlying surface

Simulation results with predicted underlying surface

Effects of future urban expansion on climate

AVHRR data 1993

Land use and cover

2010ndash2100

Atmospheric forcing data of RCP 60 from

data of RCP 60

CMIP5

Baseline underlying surface

Predicted underlying surface

Figure 1 Simulation scheme and data processing framework

23 Data and Process An advanced very high resolutionradiometer (AVHRR) grid data of 1 km times 1 km of the UnitedStates Geological Surveyrsquos (USGS) classification system span-ning a 12-month period (April 1992ndashMarch 1993 henceforth1993) was used as the baseline underlying surface data inthis study (Figure 1) And the predicted land use and covergrid data of 05∘ times 05∘ from 2010 to 2100 are derived fromthe database of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)60 This database is developed by the Asia-Pacific IntegratedModel (AIM) modeling team at the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES) Japan The reason that wechoose RCP 60 is because it is a stabilization scenariowhere total radiative forcing is stabilized after 2100 withoutovershoot by employment of a range of technologies andstrategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions [31 32]To investigate the effects of future urban expansion onclimate we only used the urban expansion information ofthe database though change information of all kinds ofland use and cover are available Supposing other types ofland use and cover constant the new urban area pixelsderived from the database of RCP 60 were overlaid to themap of baseline underlying surface Consequently twomajorunderlying surface data baseline underlying surface datadirectly derived from AVHRR data of 1993 and predictedunderlying surface data by overlaying the urban expansioninformation to the map of baseline underlying surface werefinally obtained (Figure 1) And both of these two underlyingsurface data were transformed to grid data of 50 km times 50 kmby resampling (Figure 2) According to the data of RCP60 urban area in the Northeast megalopolis had expandedrapidly during the period 1993ndash2010 and will continue toexpand in the period 2010ndash2100

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject (CMIP5) produces a state-of-the-art multimodeldataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate var-iability and climate change The model output which is beinganalyzed by researchersworldwide underlies the FifthAssess-ment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [33 34] It provides projections of future climatechange on two time scales near term (out to about 2035) andlong term (out to 2100 and beyond)Model output of the latterof RCP60 such as air temperature specific humidity sea levelpressure eastward wind northward wind and geopotential

height from 2010 to 2100 was used as the atmospheric forcingdataset of WRF-ARWmodel (Figure 1)

3 Results and Discussion

The average effects of urban expansion on temperatureand precipitation for each period of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050and 2090ndash2100 were calculated In the simulation of threeperiods the baseline underlying surface data and predictedunderlying surface data were used Concretely the temper-ature and precipitation of each period of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 with baseline underlying surface wereobtained first And then the simulation of temperature andprecipitation of three periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050and 2090ndash2100 was continuously implemented by usingthe predicted underlying surface of 2010 2040 and 2090respectively As described above the effects of future urbanexpansion on climate were measured by the difference ofthe simulation results with baseline and predicted underlyingsurfaces which can also reduce the simulation bias inducedby discontinuous simulation The original simulation resultswere hourly and aggregated into average annual data andaverage monthly data

31 Average Annual Temperature Effects Figure 3 depicts thesimulated effects of future urban expansion on average annualtemperature in the Northeast megalopolis USA From thevariation in average annual temperature change it is shownthat temperature will be locally and regionally affected byfuture urban expansion (Figure 3) The largest change inaverage annual temperature will occur in the new urban area(expanded urban area during 1993ndash2100) which can be cer-tainly referred to UHI effects The strongest UHI will lead toan increase of 573∘C in average annual temperature in somenew urban areas And for most new urban areas the averageannual temperature will increase by 2∘C to 5∘C due to urbanexpansion from 1993 to the period of 2090ndash2100 The effectsof future urban expansion on average annual temperaturewillbe strengthened along with urban area increase For instanceconversion fromdeciduous broadleaf forest to urban areawilllead to the average annual temperature of the pixel (39∘591015840N75∘501015840W) rising by 315∘C 353∘C and 376∘C in the period of2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively


1993

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(a)

2010

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(b)

2040

Urban and built-up landDryland cropland and pastureIrrigated cropland and pastureCroplandgrassland mosaicCroplandwoodland mosaic

GrasslandDeciduous broadleaf forestEvergreen needleleafMixed forestWater bodies

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(c)

2090



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(d)

Figure 2 Baseline underlying surface data (1993) and predicted underlying surface data (2010 2040 and 2090) used in this study

There will be some nonurban pixels experiencing averageannual temperature decrease due to future urban expansionswhile the average annual temperature ofmost nonurban areaswill be steady The significant average annual temperaturedecrease will mainly happen in the south of the Northeastmegalopolis withmixed forest (Figure 3)The statistics shows

that this average annual temperature decrease will range from040∘C to 120∘C And along with the urban expansion thecooling effect in this area will be more andmore notableThismaybe because the strengthenedUHIdue to urban expansionenhances the rising flow of urban area and consequentlyresults in the inflow of cold wet air stream from the sea


34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020

minus82 minus80 minus78 minus76 minus74 minus72 minus70 minus68 minus66

0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

2

4

6


minus6

minus4

minus2

(c)

Figure 3 Effects of future urban expansion on average annual temperature in the Northeast megalopolis USA (unit ∘C)

32 Average Annual Precipitation Effects The effects of futureurban expansion on average annual precipitation will mainlybe negative The spatial pattern of average annual precip-itation change will be approximately the opposite to thatof average annual temperature change (Figure 4) For somenew urban area and most of the pixels around urban areasthe average annual precipitation will decrease by 10mm to50mm And the average annual precipitation will be reducedby more than 100mm for some pixels in the south region ofthe Northeast megalopolis This reduction may be caused bychanges in surface hydrology that extend beyond the UHIeffect There were a lot of researches that argue about urbanexpansion resulting in an increase of urban precipitation[21 25 35ndash37] But our simulation showed that the futureurban expansion in Northeast megalopolis with mega citieson precipitation has different rules This simulation result isconsistent with the findings of Guo et al and Zhang et although their study area of Beijing is much smaller thanours on scale [6 24] The urban expansion will produce lessevaporation higher surface temperatures and larger sensibleheat fluxes This leads to less water vapor and hence lessconvective available potential energy (CAPE) Combination

of these factors induced by urban expansion contributes toregional precipitation reduction in general Concretely dueto urban expansion in the Northeast megalopolis the averageannual precipitation of the simulation area will decrease by575mm 710mm and 835mm in the periods of 2010ndash20202040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively

33 Average Monthly Temperature Effects Figure 5 depictsthe monthly variation of average temperature change drivenby future urban expansion The urban expansion in theNortheast megalopolis will result in an average monthlytemperature increase in original urban area (urban area in1993) in April May June July and August and opposite inother months in the period of 2010ndash2020 (Figure 5(a)) Thecooling effect inwintermay be because of the local circulationchange caused by surface energy budgets change And alongwith urban expansion in the periods of 2040ndash2050 and2090ndash2100 the cooling effect will be weakened which canbe referred to the enhancement of UHI effect The urbanexpansion during these two periods will result in an averagemonthly temperature increase from February to October andopposite in the other three months The average monthly


34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)

Figure 4 Effects of future urban expansion on average annual precipitation in the Northeast megalopolis USA (unit mm)

temperature increase in June and July in original urban areawill exceed 04∘C in the period of 2090ndash2100 due to urbanexpansion And on thewhole the future urban expansionwilllead to an average monthly temperature increase in originalurban area

The warming effect of future urban expansion in newurban area will be more significant than that in originalurban area and more serious in summer than in winter(Figure 5(b)) Particularly in June the urban expansion willlead to an average monthly temperature increase by 192∘C316∘C and 359∘C in new urban area in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively There willbe also a cooling effect in new urban area in NovemberDecember and January during the period of 2010ndash2020But it is tiny compared with the notable average monthlytemperature increase in the other months The differencesof average monthly temperature change among the threesimulation periods indicate that the UHI effect in new urbanarea will enhance along with urban expansion

And in nonurban area the effects of future urbanexpansion on average monthly temperature will also varyfrom month to month We counted the number of pixels

with average monthly temperature changes exceeding plusmn05∘C(Figure 6(a)) This number indicates the area that is severelyinfluenced by future urban expansion on average monthlytemperatureThe results show that the influence area of futureurban expansion on average monthly temperature will belarger in the period from July to January And at least 20pixels which means an area of more than 500 times 104 km2will be affected by future urban expansion and experienceaverage monthly temperature changes exceeding plusmn05∘C inthese months Particularly in the period of 2090 to 2100 theurban expansion will lead to an averagemonthly temperaturechanges of more than plusmn05∘C in a vast area of 110 times 105 km2And the increase of pixels with average monthly temperaturechanges exceeding plusmn05∘C along with time indicates that theinfluence area extends along with future urban expansionIn sum the larger area urban expands the more notablethe effects of future urban expansion on average monthlytemperature will be

34 Average Monthly Precipitation Effects There will be neg-ative effects of future urban expansion on average monthlyprecipitation in original urban area though slight Similar


0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area

2010ndash20202040ndash20502090ndash2100

(b)

Figure 5 Effects of future urban expansion on average monthlytemperature in urban area in the Northeast megalopolis USA (unit∘C)

to average monthly temperature the change of averagemonthly precipitation in original urban area caused by futureurban expansion will be more significant in summer than inwinter (Figure 7(a)) The urban expansion-induced averagemonthly precipitation decrease in original urban area willreach its maximum of 049mm 069mm and 071mm inJuly in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively And it will fall to its minimum of 004mmin December in the periods of 2010ndash2020 and 002mmand 001mm in January in the periods of 2040ndash2050 and2090ndash2100 respectivelyThe effects of future urban expansionon average monthly precipitation will continuously increasefrom January to July and then turn to fall until DecemberThis change of average monthly precipitation in originalurban area may be because of the local circulation changecaused by surface energy budgets change and can be easily

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)

Figure 6 Effects of future urban expansion on average monthlytemperature and precipitation in nonurban area in the Northeastmegalopolis USA (a) Number of pixels with average monthlytemperature change exceeding plusmn05∘C (b) number of pixels withaverage monthly precipitation change exceeding plusmn1mm

found to be more and more serious along with future urbanexpansion

The drought effect of future urban expansion in newurban areawill bemore significant than that in original urbanarea (Figure 7(b)) The most severe reduction of averagemonthly precipitation will occur in October with decreasesof 1182mm 923mm and 814mm in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively AfterOctoberthe drought effect of future urban expansion in new urbanarea will begin to weaken and gradually fall to its minimum(between 2mm and 3mm) in May And then it will turnover rapidly and become more and more severe Contraryto the effects of future urban expansion on average monthlyprecipitation in original urban area larger urban area willresult in slighter drought effect in new urban area This can


0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

Figure 7 Effects of future urban expansion on average monthlyprecipitation in urban area in theNortheast megalopolis USA (unitmm)

be deduced from the phenomenon that the average monthlyprecipitation decreases in the periods of 2040ndash2050 and2090ndash2100 will be smaller than that in the periods of 2010ndash2020 It may be because that the enhancement of UHI effectin the Northeast megalopolis will arouse the inflow of humidair from the Atlantic

To investigate the effects of future urban expansion onaverage monthly precipitation in nonurban area we countedthe number of pixels with average monthly precipitationchanges exceeding plusmn1mm (Figure 6(b)) This number indi-cates the influence area of future urban expansion on averagemonthly precipitation to some extent The results show thatthe influence area of future urban expansion on averagemonthly precipitationwill be larger in summer than inwinterA rapider urban expands will lead to more distant effects

For instance the number of pixels with average monthlyprecipitation changes more than plusmn1mm in July will be 35(covering an area of 875 times 104 km2) in the period of 2090ndash2100 and 32 (covering an area of 800 times 104 km2) and 24(covering an area of 600 times 104 km2) in the periods of 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 respectively It implies the area withaverage monthly precipitation changes more than plusmn1mmcaused by future urban expansion will increase persistentlyalong with urban expansion

4 Conclusions

A simulation-based research on the intension and scope ofinfluences of future urban expansion on regional climate ondifferent time scales in developed megalopolis was imple-mented The average annual and monthly temperature andprecipitation change caused by urban expansion from 1993 to2100 were presented taking the Northeast megalopolis USAas a case study area Some conclusions were drawn as follows

(i) It can be seen from the above analysis that the futureurban expansion will result in an average annualtemperature increase ranging from 2∘C to 5∘C innew urban area and an average annual temperaturedecrease ranging from 040∘C to 120∘C in the southof the Northeast megalopolis The average annualprecipitation of our simulation area will be reducedby 575mm 710mm and 835mm due to urbanexpansion in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050and 2090ndash2100 respectively This reduction is espe-cially severe in the south region of the Northeastmegalopolis

(ii) The effects of future urban expansion on averagemonthly temperature will vary frommonth to monthand become more and more severe along with urbanexpansion not only in original and newurban area butalso in nonurban area The warming effect of futureurban expansion in original and new urban area willbe more serious in summer than in winter And therewill be a cooling effect inwinter in original urban area

(iii) The effects of future urban expansion on averagemonthly precipitation will be severe in new urbanarea but in original urban area The drought effect innew urban area will weaken along with urban expan-sionThe influence area of future urban expansion onaverage monthly precipitation in nonurban area willbe larger in summer than in winter and will increasealong with urban expansion

(iv) The influence rules of urban expansion on climaterevealed at the scale of megalopolis differ from thosein a single city A large-scale study on the impactsof urban expansion on climate helps to understandthe integrated effect of combination and interaction ofmultiple cities and their surrounding areas And thisintegrated effect may crucially determine the climatepattern


Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Key Programmefor Developing Basic Science in China (no 2010CB950904)the Key Project funded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(no KZZD-EW-08) and the External Cooperation Programof the Chinese Academy of Sciences (no GJHZ1312)

References

[1] QWeng ldquoFractal analysis of satellite-detected urban heat islandeffectrdquo Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing vol69 no 5 pp 555ndash566 2003

[2] J B Basara H G Basara B G Illston andK C Crawford ldquoTheimpact of the urban heat island during an intense heat wave inOklahoma Cityrdquo Advances in Meteorology vol 2010 Article ID230365 10 pages 2010

[3] J A Voogt and T R Oke ldquoThermal remote sensing of urbanclimatesrdquoRemote Sensing of Environment vol 86 no 3 pp 370ndash384 2003

[4] Q H Weng D S Lu and J Schubring ldquoEstimation ofland surface temperature-vegetation abundance relationship forurban heat island studiesrdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol89 no 4 pp 467ndash483 2004

[5] M Stathopoulou A Synnefa C Cartalis M Santamouris TKarlessi and H Akbari ldquoA surface heat island study of Athensusing high-resolution satellite imagery and measurements ofthe optical and thermal properties of commonly used buildingand paving materialsrdquo International Journal of SustainableEnergy vol 28 no 1ndash3 pp 59ndash76 2009

[6] C L Zhang F Chen S G Miao Q C Li X A Xia andC Y Xuan ldquoImpacts of urban expansion and future greenplanting on summer precipitation in the Beijing metropolitanareardquo Journal of Geophysical Research D vol 114 no 2 ArticleID D02116 2009

[7] G L Makokha and C A Shisanya ldquoTemperature cooling andwarming rates in three different built environments withinNairobi City KenyardquoAdvances inMeteorology vol 2010 ArticleID 686214 5 pages 2010

[8] R Bornstein and Q Lin ldquoUrban heat islands and summertimeconvective thunderstorms in Atlanta three case studiesrdquoAtmo-spheric Environment vol 34 no 3 pp 507ndash516 2000

[9] R A Pielke Sr G Marland R A Betts et al ldquoThe influence ofland-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate systemrelevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effectof greenhouse gasesrdquo Philosophical Transactions of the RoyalSociety A vol 360 no 1797 pp 1705ndash1719 2002

[10] DNiyogi THolt S Zhong P C Pyle and J Basara ldquoUrban andland surface effects on the 30 July 2003 mesoscale convectivesystem event observed in the Southern Great Plainsrdquo Journal ofGeophysical Research D vol 111 no 19 Article ID D19107 2006

[11] M Lei D Niyogi C Kishtawal et al ldquoEffect of explicit urbanland surface representation on the simulation of the 26 July 2005heavy rain event over Mumbai Indiardquo Atmospheric Chemistryand Physics vol 8 no 20 pp 5975ndash5995 2008

[12] T R Oke and G B Maxwell ldquoUrban heat island dynamics inMontreal and Vancouverrdquo Atmospheric Environment vol 9 no2 pp 191ndash200 1975

[13] D E Parker ldquoLarge-scale warming is not urbanrdquo Nature vol432 no 7015 p 290 2004

[14] R Emmanuel and E Kruger ldquoUrban heat island and its impacton climate change resilience in a shrinking city the case ofGlasgow UKrdquo Building and Environment vol 53 pp 137ndash1492012

[15] R D Bornstein ldquoObservations of the urban heat island effect inNew York cityrdquo Journal of Applied Meteorology vol 7 no 4 pp575ndash582 1968

[16] E Kalnay and M Cai ldquoImpact of urbanization and land-usechange on climaterdquoNature vol 423 no 6939 pp 528ndash531 2003

[17] C Rosenzweig W D Solecki L Parshall M ChoppingG Pope and R Goldberg ldquoCharacterizing the urban heatisland in current and future climates in New Jerseyrdquo GlobalEnvironmental Change B vol 6 no 1 pp 51ndash62 2005

[18] F Yuan and M E Bauer ldquoComparison of impervious surfacearea and normalized difference vegetation index as indicatorsof surface urban heat island effects in Landsat imageryrdquo RemoteSensing of Environment vol 106 no 3 pp 375ndash386 2007

[19] S RGaffinC Rosenzweig R Khanbilvardi et al ldquoVariations inNew York cityrsquos urban heat island strength over time and spacerdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 94 no 1-2 pp 1ndash112008

[20] M L Imhoff P Zhang R E Wolfe and L Bounoua ldquoRemotesensing of the urban heat island effect across biomes in thecontinental USArdquo Remote Sensing of Environment vol 114 no3 pp 504ndash513 2010

[21] L Kleerekoper M van Esch and T B Salcedo ldquoHow to makea city climate-proof addressing the urban heat island effectrdquoResources Conservation and Recycling vol 64 pp 30ndash38 2012

[22] L Tian J Q Chen and S X Yu ldquoHow has Shenzhen beenheated up during the rapid urban build-up processrdquo Landscapeand Urban Planning vol 115 pp 18ndash29 2013

[23] J Marshall Shepherd M Carter M Manyin D Messen andS Burian ldquoThe impact of urbanization on current and futurecoastal precipitation a case study for houstonrdquo Environmentand Planning B vol 37 no 2 pp 284ndash304 2010

[24] X L Guo D H Fu and J Wang ldquoMesoscale convectiveprecipitation system modified by urbanization in Beijing cityrdquoAtmospheric Research vol 82 no 1-2 pp 112ndash126 2006

[25] C Y Lin W C Chen S C Liu Y A Liou G R Liu and TH Lin ldquoNumerical study of the impact of urbanization on theprecipitation over Taiwanrdquo Atmospheric Environment vol 42no 13 pp 2934ndash2947 2008

[26] K Trusilova M Jung G Churkina U Karsten M Heimannand M Claussen ldquoUrbanization impacts on the climate inEurope numerical experiments by the PSU-NCAR mesoscalemodel (MM5)rdquo Journal of AppliedMeteorology andClimatologyvol 47 no 5 pp 1442ndash1455 2008

[27] M Z Jacobson and J E T Hoeve ldquoEffects of urban surfaces andwhite roofs on global and regional climaterdquo Journal of Climatevol 25 no 3 pp 1028ndash1044 2012

[28] Y F Sang Z G Wang Z L Li C M Liu and X J LiuldquoInvestigation into the daily precipitation variability in theYangtze River Delta Chinardquo Hydrological Processes vol 27 no2 pp 175ndash185 2013

[29] J GottmannMegalopolisTheUrbanizedNortheastern Seaboardof the United States MIT Press Cambridge Mass USA 1961

[30] G A Grell J Dudhia and D R Stauffer ldquoA description of thefifth-generation PennStateNCAR mesoscale model (MM5)rdquoNCAR Technical Note NCAR Boulder Colo USA 1995

[31] J Fujino R Nair M Kainuma T Masui and Y MatsuokaldquoMulti-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios usingaim global modelrdquo Energy Journal vol 27 pp 343ndash354 2006


[32] Y Hijioka Y Matsuoka H Nishimoto T Masui and MKainuma ldquoGlobal GHG emission scenarios under GHG con-centration stabilization targetsrdquo Journal of Global EnvironmentEngineering vol 13 pp 97ndash108 2008

[33] G A Meehl L Goddard J Murphy et al ldquoDecadal predictioncan it be skillfulrdquo Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety vol 90 no 10 pp 1467ndash1485 2009

[34] K E Taylor R J Stouffer and G A Meehl ldquoAn overview ofCMIP5 and the experiment designrdquo Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society vol 93 no 4 pp 485ndash498 2012

[35] K J Craig MM5 simulations of urban induced convective pre-cipitation over Atlanta GA [Thesis] Faculty of the Departmentof Meteorology San Jose State University 2002

[36] CM RozoffW R Cotton and J O Adegoke ldquoSimulation of StLouis Missouri land use impacts on thunderstormsrdquo Journal ofApplied Meteorology vol 42 pp 716ndash738 2003

[37] M A F S Dias J Dias LM V Carvalho E D Freitas and P LS Dias ldquoChanges in extreme daily rainfall for Sao Paulo BrazilrdquoClimatic Change vol 116 no 3-4 pp 705ndash722 2013

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of


EarthquakesJournal of


Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of


Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering


GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of


OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in


MineralogyInternational Journal of


MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014


Geological ResearchJournal of


Geology Advances in


surface temperature and percent impervious surface for allseasons [18] Gaffin et al analyzed the historical annualdata of New York and found that the UHI intensificationincrease along with urban expansion is responsible for 13of the total warming that the city had experienced since1900 [19] Imhoff et al found that urban expansion is theprimary driver for the increase in temperature explaining70 of the total variance inland surface temperature inLos Angeles [20] Kleerekoper et al showed that the severetemperature rise in urban environments is caused by heatstresses aggravation of phenomenon UHI along with urbanexpansion [21] Tian et al found that the diurnal temperatureranges have tight correlation with urban areas in their studyof Shenzhen China [22] Besides strengthening UHI effectit has been found that urban expansion can significantlylead to local precipitation change For instance the studyof Marshall Shepherd et al illustrated the positive effectsof urban areas on precipitation enhancement in the west-northwest Houston area and suggested that the future urbanexpansion may lead to temporal and spatial precipitationvariability in coastal urban microclimates [23] And Guo etal showed that the total accumulated precipitation in Beijingdecreases especially in the urbanized region and its distri-bution tends to become more concentrated and intensifiedalong the borderline between urban and nonurban regions[24] All above researches indicate that it is unambiguous thatthe urban expansion can result in local climate change

In addition to researches of small scale and single citythere are evidences suggesting that the impacts of urbanexpansion on climate change are significant at a regionalscale Lin et al found that the urban expansion over Taiwanrsquoswestern plain perturbs thermal and dynamic processes andhence affects the location of thunderstorms and precipitationover western plain [25] Trusilova et al pointed out thatthe urban area in Europe results in an increase of urbanprecipitation in winter (009 plusmn 016mmday) and a precip-itation reduction in summer (minus005 plusmn 022mmday) [26]Jacobson and Ten Hoeve pointed out that urban area ismodeled over 20 years to increase gross global warming by006ndash011 K and the UHI effect may contribute to 2ndash4 ofgross global warming [27] And the researches of Sang etal showed that the urban expansion in the Yangtze RiverDelta China causes obvious fluctuations of regional rainintensity andmore uncertainty of daily precipitation variabil-ity [28] These researches have sufficiently and undisputedlydemonstrated that urban expansion affects local and regionalclimate changes But for mega cities whose urban areas arestill expanding such as New York Beijing Seoul Chicagoand Moscow there are still no sufficient evidences for therelationship between future urban expansion and regionalclimate at the scale of megalopolis And arguments on theeffects of urban expansion on large scale climate still exist[13] In this paper we present some evidences for effects offuture urban expansion on regional climate based on thesimulation of precipitation and temperature in the Northeastmegalopolis of the United States of America (USA)

The primary objective of this study is to determine theinfluences of future urban expansion on regional climate ondifferent time scales in developed megalopolis The major

contribution of this paper is that it provides evidences forinfluences of future urban expansion on regional climateat the scale of megalopolis and helps to understand theintegrated effect of combination and interaction of multiplecities and their surrounding areas The simulation resultsshow that future urban expansion will lead to significantlyclimate change One of the surprising findings is that therewill be a cooling effect in original urban area in winter causedby urban expansion The future urban expansion will resultin an average annual temperature increase ranging from 2∘Cto 5∘C in new urban area and an average annual temperaturedecrease ranging from 040∘C to 120∘C in the south of themegalopolis The average annual precipitation will decreaseby 575mm 710mm and 835mm in the periods of 2010ndash2020 2040ndash2050 and 2090ndash2100 due to future urban expan-sion respectively And the magnitude of warming effects anddrought effects of future urban expansion will vary with theseasons Our simulation scheme is described in Section 2The atmospheric forcing dataset and the predicted urbanexpansion dataset used in our simulation are also introducedin this section The results and discussions are provided inSection 3 and concluded in the final section

2 Data and Methodology

21 Study Area The Northeast megalopolis is the mostpopulous and largely developed megalopolis of USA Itis constituted by a number of cities including BaltimoreBoston Harrisburg Newark New York City PhiladelphiaPortland Providence Richmond Springfield Hartford andWashington [29] The megalopolisrsquos population is expectedto rise to sixty million by 2025 This megalopolis is chosenas case study area because it is one of the most typicalmegalopolis globally which can be regarded as the exampleof future megalopolis development

22 Simulation Scheme TheWeather Research and Forecast-ing (WRF-ARW) model based on the Eulerian mass solverwas used in this study to investigate the temperature andprecipitation changes driven by future urban expansion in thestudy area This mesoscale model is a state-of-the-art atmo-spheric simulation system based on the Fifth-GenerationPenn StateNCARMesoscale Model (MM5) [30] Simulationfrom 2010 to 2100 with a constant underlying surface (thepattern of urban area as well as other land use and covertypes in the study area is fixed to that of 1993 namelybaseline underlying surface) was implemented first whoseresults are regarded as baseline The effects of future urbanexpansion on climate can be measured by the difference ofthe simulation results with predicted underlying surface andbaseline underlying surface (Figure 1)

119864119894= 119877119894minus 119903119894 (1)

where 119894 refers to average annual and monthly temperaturesand average annual and monthly precipitations 119864 is theeffects of future urban expansion on climate and 119877 and 119903 arethe simulation results of WRF-ARW model with predictedunderlying surface and baseline underlying surface respec-tively


WRF-ARW model




AVHRR data 1993

Land use and cover

2010ndash2100


data of RCP 60

CMIP5











1993

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(a)

2010

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(b)

2040



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(c)

2090



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(d)





34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

2

4

6


minus6

minus4

minus2

(c)






34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)








0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


WRF-ARW model




AVHRR data 1993

Land use and cover

2010ndash2100


data of RCP 60

CMIP5











1993

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(a)

2010

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(b)

2040



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(c)

2090



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(d)





34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

2

4

6


minus6

minus4

minus2

(c)






34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)








0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


1993

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(a)

2010

45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(b)

2040



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(c)

2090



45∘N

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W

80∘W 75

∘W 70∘W 65

∘W

40∘N

35∘N

45∘N

40∘N

35∘N

(d)





34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

2

4

6


minus6

minus4

minus2

(c)






34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)








0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

2

4

6

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

2

4

6


minus6

minus4

minus2

(c)






34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)








0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482010ndash2020


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(a)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482040ndash2050


0

50

100

minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(b)

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

482090ndash2100

0

50

100


minus300

minus250

minus200

minus150

minus100

minus50

(c)








0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0

06

02

04

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus02

(a)

0

1

2

3

4

Aver

age m

onth

ly te

mpe

ratu

re ch

ange

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


(b)



0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Month

(a)

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Num

ber o

f pix

els

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12


(b)





0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


0

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

Original urban area

minus08

minus06

minus04

minus02

(a)

Aver

age m

onth

ly p

reci

pita

tion

chan

ge

5 101 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 12Month

New urban area


minus12

minus10

minus8

minus6

minus4

minus2

(b)





4 Conclusions







Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in


Acknowledgments


References
















































Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

















Volume 2014

Mining


Journal of



Geophysics







Journal of




Advances in











Geology Advances in

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