GSI -Introduction Overview of WP8 work Planned contributions to WP11
Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11
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Transcript of Requirements for ERMITAGE WP11
ERMITAGE: ERMITAGE: COUPLING MODELSCOUPLING MODELSINTO CIAS: INTO CIAS: WHY, WHAT, and HOWWHY, WHAT, and HOW
Nov 17, 2011Nov 17, 2011University of East AngliaUniversity of East Anglia
Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre, Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre,
Requirements for ERMITAGERequirements for ERMITAGE WP11 WP11
1. Create scenarios which simulate climate mitigation and examine their ‘sustainability’ for......adequacy of food and water supply, protection of ecosystems and water resources
2. Create scenarios that simulate ‘sustainable’ policies for land use, ecosystems, water supplies ....what is the effect on climate?
3. Identify tradeoffs/synergies; create scenarios that maximise sustainability in all these respects.
a. Links land, climate and hydrological modelsb. Combines models written at various institutions in different languages
c. Stores model outcomes traceablyd. Facilitates uncertainty analysis
e. Allows study of feedbacksf. Flexible to answer different questions
So an integrated model is So an integrated model is required that ...required that ...
CIAS 2.0CIAS 2.0Providing climate change and climate change Providing climate change and climate change impacts information for adaptation impacts information for adaptation preparedness and mitigation decisions around preparedness and mitigation decisions around the worldthe world
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS 2.0 Design Features
Involves the stakeholder Community..
Web portal
Uncertainty
Analysis:Parameters
Modules
MULTI:-institutional
-platform-language
Flexibly linked
modularsystem
Feedbacks included
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts
% of impacts avoided
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ease
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2016-5-L 2030-5-L
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS portal: Managing results
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS
Emissions
Impacts Downscaledclimate
Climate
Mitigation
Adaptation
Drivers
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS
Emissions
Impacts Downscaledclimate
Climate
Mitigation
Adaptation
Drivers
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
Detail of CIAS (current): simple linear flows
SCM Simple Climate Model
MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)
Emission scenario
database: emissions
of greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario generatorClimGEN
(UEA)
SDSM LiteWeaher Generator
(L’borough)
Wallace Initiative: Impacts on biodiversity
Impacts on crop suitability(James Cook University, WWF US)
Hydrological Models MAC, FiestaChanges in runoff
Water stress(Nottingham, Kings)
Agricultural Model PEGASUSChanges in crop yieldsFarm-scale adaptation
(UEA, McGill)
Degree Day Model(Reading)
SPI Drought indicator(UEA)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (NOW) SCM Simple
Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)
Emission scenario
database: emissions
of greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario generatorClimGEN
(UEA)
LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zonesImpacts on crop suitabilityImpacts on water resources
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5) SCM Simple
Climate Model MAGICC6 (UEA, PIK)
Emission scenario
database: emissions
of greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial
climate scenario generatorClimGEN
(UEA)
LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIELnad use change decisions
Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP5)
GENIE Emulator
(OU, UEA)
Emission scenario
database: emissions
of greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial climate scenario
generator (UEA)
LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIELnad use change decisions
Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions.
It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC –
and receives additional support from the DTI
CIAS ERMITAGE COUPLING FLOW (WP11)
GENIE Emulator
(OU, UEA)
Emission scenario
database: emissions
of greenhouse
gases
SCSG Spatial climate scenario
generator (UEA)
LPJmLImpacts on vegetation zones
Impacts on crop yieldsImpacts on water resources
(PIK)
MagPIELnad use change decisions
Crop productivityGreenhouse gas emissions
(PIK)
REMIND-ROR
TIAMOR GEMINI-E3
Burden Sharing
SimulatorWP10
WP7WP6
WP9
1.There’s a databaseThere’s a metadatabase2. Searchable: S&Q interface3.Web portal that allows uncertainty analysis4.Allows study of feedbacks between models5. Allows linking of models different instiutions in different languages.6. Can link full code, emulator, or executable
Positive features of CIAS ...Positive features of CIAS ...
A.We work together by passing files manually between pairs of models to understand the coupling (as currently in WP5) without feedbacks: consider issues of time-stepping, spatial scalesB.Pass files manually to do feedback and understand science/economics of thisNB New large data base, TDH, is available to help us exchange our data files
To work with CIAS...To work with CIAS...
C. Rupert checks bfg supports language and if not adapt (WP2)D. Sudipta needs to be informed of: (i) scientific coupling between model pairs: test in SoftIAM E. To put the couplings in the portal Sudipta needs then: (ii) the required couplings (iii) output requirements (iv) which input parameters are suitable for uncertainty analysis
To work with To work with CIAS...concurrently CIAS...concurrently
A.Scientific couplings in WP5 close to decided so...B. Couple GENIEemulator into CIASC. Couple LPJemulator into CIASD. GEMINI-E3E. MagPIEF. REMIND-R, TIAM
Possible CIAS sequence to Possible CIAS sequence to WP11..WP11..
A.Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-Magicc6 (WP5)
B.GENIEEm-LPJmL-MagPIE-GENIEEm C. GEMINIE3-GENIEEm (WP6)
D.REMINDR-MagPIE-LPJmL or TIAM-MagPIE-LPJmL (WP7)
E. REMINDR-GENIEEm (WP8)
F. REMINDR-Magicc6-ClimGEN-LPJmL-MagPIE-REMINDR
etc.
Which couplings can be Which couplings can be created?created?