REPRESENTATIVE BY TRAVIS FLENNIKEN, CFA, CVA … › wp-content › uploads › 2016 › 04 ›...

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BY TRAVIS FLENNIKEN, CFA, CVA HENDERSON HUTCHERSON & MCCULLOUGH, PLLC | CHATTANOOGA, TN | MEMPHIS, TN

Transcript of REPRESENTATIVE BY TRAVIS FLENNIKEN, CFA, CVA … › wp-content › uploads › 2016 › 04 ›...

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BUSINESS VALUATION

$10,000,000

MULTI-POINT IMPORT DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$1,500,000

DOMESTIC DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$35,000,000

HIGHLINE & IMPORT

DEALERSHIP

MULTI-POINT

BUSINESS VALUATION

$3,700,000

SOFTWARE SYSTEMS

COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$3,300,000

DOMESTIC DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$18,000,000

INDUSTRIAL CONTRACTOR

BUSINESS VALUATION

$60,000,000

FACILITIES SERVICES

COMPANYNATIONWIDE

BUSINESS VALUATION

$2,700,000

IMPORT DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$20,000,000

MEDICAL BUSINESS

BUSINESS VALUATION

$1,600,000

INDUSTRIAL PARTS SUPPLY COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$200,000

PHYSICIAN’S PRACTICE

BUSINESS VALUATION

$2,300,000

CONSTRUCTION SERVICE

COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$800,000

CHEMICAL SUPPLY

COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$15,000,000

AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS

BUSINESS VALUATION

$2,500,000

METAL WHOLESALER

BUSINESS VALUATION

$750,000

OFFICE SUPPLYCOMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$3,700,000

IMPORT DEALERSHIP

HIGHLINEDEALERSHIP$12,500,000

BUSINESS VALUATIONBUSINESS VALUATION

$5,800,000

DOMESTIC DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$4,100,000

ENTERTAINMENT SERVICES

COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$3,300,000

TRUCKING COMPANY

BUSINESS VALUATION

$1,100,000

DOMESTIC DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$38,000,000

IMPORT DEALERSHIP

BUSINESS VALUATION

$13,300,000

OIL TRANSPORTATION

COMPANYSOUTHEAST

BUSINESS VALUATION

$2,300,000

MULTI-BRAND DEALERSHIP

REPRESENTATIVE ENGAGEMENTS

Randall Hebert

JackLondon

Travis Flenniken

Matt Stelzman

Contact the HHMValuation Services Group

for your forensics, litigation, and valuation needs.

423.756.7771 | HHMCPAS.COM/VALUATION

BY TRAVIS FLENNIKEN, CFA, CVA

HENDERSON HUTCHERSON & MCCULLOUGH, PLLC | CHATTANOOGA, TN | MEMPHIS, TN

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U.S. light vehicle sales growth is expected by many industry

experts to fall to low single digits in 2016. Growth is expected to slow as dealers are experiencing falling gross profit margins and manufacturers increasingly rely on incentives to boost sales. Many industry leaders believe 2016 is the beginning of a new phase for the automotive industry,

where cost cutting is the priority, rather than capturing market share. A low unemployment environment with low fuel prices have undoubtedly buoyed auto sales, but a hawkish Federal Reserve in 2016 could spoil the fun.

The auto industry reached a new milestone in 2015 as total light vehicle units sold reached 17.4

million. The growth in 2015 was solely attributable to the increase in truck and SUV unit sales, as this category grew 11.7 percent, while car unit sales fell 2.1 percent. Sales growth for trucks and SUVs has reached the low double digits in the last three years. Chart A shows total unit sales, segmented by type.

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CARS LIGHT TRUCKS

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Chart A

AUTO DEALERS’ 2016 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Travis Flenniken, CFA, CVA

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SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE (SAAR) SAAR hovered above 18 million

units for an unprecedented three straight months ending in November 2015, exceeding the prediction of most industry experts. SAAR hasn’t reached 18 million since the summer of 2005. SAAR, in December was 17.2 million, only a 2.5 percent increase over December 2014, showing signs of a slowdown from fall’s torrid pace. What little growth was reported in December SAAR is thought by some to be artificial, as there were more selling days in December 2015 than in December 2014.

Many in the industry expect 2016 to be the peak for unit sales. The NADA is expecting 17.7 million light vehicle units sold in 2016, with the pace slowing to 17.2 million in 2017. Steven Szakaly, Chief Economist for the NADA, believes automakers will continue offering aggressive incentives and utilizing increased manufacturing capacity to chase market share in 2016. However, over the long-term, Szakaly predicts rising interest rates, regulatory compliance costs, and wage and income pressure to keep annual new vehicle sales below 17 million. A flattening SAAR appears to be the trend, as Chart B shows a fairly consistent cycle since 1980.

AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson believes that sales performance in the month of December is a bellwether for annual sales in the following year. In an interview with CNBC in January, Jackson stated that a flat December in 2015 (after adjustment for more selling days) portends a flat 2016. He went on to

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U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE SAARGROWTH TO PLATEAU CYLE

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state that the industry does not manage its margins well in flat growth cycles, citing performance in 2000 – 2005. Jackson, in a January Automotive News article, stated “...there is a huge difference between a growth environment and a plateau environment. It requires a different skill set. We have to manage

differently.” As a result, AutoNation is focused on cutting costs in the first quarter of 2016 to maintain profit margin.

Chart C (see next page) was created by Henderson Hutcherson & McCullough, CPAs (HHM) to test Jackson’s “December bellwether” theory. The chart compares year-over-year percentage growth each December since 1990 to actual unit growth for the subsequent year. It appears Jackson’s theory has some merit, with only seven years out of the last 25 years seeing percentage change in opposite directions.

"...THERE IS A HUGE

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A

GROWTH ENVIRONMENT AND

A PLATEAU ENVIRONMENT. IT

REQUIRES A DIFFERENT

SKILL SET. WE HAVE TO

MANAGE DIFFERENTLY.”

Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016

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Other industry leaders agree that the industry is headed toward a flattening phase of the business cycle. Hyundai Motor America CEO Dave Zuchowski was quoted in Automotive News saying, “If you look at historical industry cycles, it has generally been about a seven-year run. We are nearing the end of a good seven-year run, and I definitely think it starts flattening out, though I don’t see a collapse.” In the same article, Roger Penske, Penske Automotive CEO, said the expected slowdown means dealers should focus on internal efficiency rather than expansion. His company is working to turn more internet leads into sales, improve online presentation of vehicles to

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DECEMBER YoY CHANGE TOTAL ANNUAL UNITS SOLD

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customers, and make it easier for customers to at least start their transactions online.

At the Detroit Auto Show in January, Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota North America, stated that it is unheard of to have six consecutive years of unit sales growth in excess of one million units a year. He went on to state that he knows there will be a slowdown in the industry, and that Toyota will be able to adapt. Likewise, Bob Lutz, former General Motors vice chairman, was reported as counseling automakers and suppliers to move cautiously and to not increase capacity in the current environment.

While the industry’s annual sales may be flattening, some brands, such as Subaru, continue to pick up market

share. Tom Doll, president of Subaru of America, expects U.S. sales to exceed 600,000 in 2016, a 5.5 percent increase over 2015. Subaru’s growth is impressive, growing 13 percent in 2015. Total unit sales in 2015 more than doubled its total until sales in 2011.

USED AND LEASED VEHICLES

Edmunds.com reported the industry sold 38.7 million retail used vehicles in 2015, a 5.6 percent increase over 2014. Certified pre-owned (CPO) vehicles sales reached 2.6 million in 2015, representing 6.7 percent of all retail units sold. Total CPO retail sales grew 9.1 percent over the previous year. Total leased vehicles increased

Chart C

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Chart D

to four million units in 2015, up from 3.6 million the previous year.

AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE

According to TrueCar, the average transaction price (ATP) for new vehicles reached $34,081 in December 2015, with revenue reaching a record high for the month of $58 billion, up 15.4 percent from a year ago. December’s ATP was a 2.4 percent increase from the previous year, and was the first time ever exceeding $34,000.

TrueCar tracks incentive spending by manufacturer as a percent of ATP. The higher this ratio, the more

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INCENTIVES AS PERCENTAGE OF ATP

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AVERAGE: 8.8%

manufacturers are giving back to buyers to incur a sale – inferring a weakening consumer market. This ratio was 9 percent in December, and was as high as 9.7 percent in September 2015. The 2015 high has not been seen since July of 2010.

Chart D below shows Truecar’s estimate of incentive spending-to-average transaction price in each month since 2009. An increasing trend is evident in the last half of 2015, showing similarities to mid-2010.

The average transaction price for a used vehicle in 2015 was $18,500, according to Edmunds.com, marking

the highest price of any year. Edmunds suggests the average price is highest on record because 54 percent of all used cars sold were three years old or newer, and because of a large price increase for cars older than six years. Chart E (see next page) shows the annual change in average transaction price from 2014 to 2015 by vehicle age. Note the large price increases in vehicles past age seven – likely because most buy here/pay here dealers carry inventory older than seven years.

Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016

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PROFIT MARGIN COMPRESSION

According to NADA, average gross profits at dealerships have fallen each year since 2009, when it was 15.2 percent. According to NADA’s December 2015 financial profile, average gross margin was 13 percent, down 10 basis points from the previous year. Margin compression is often indicative of a slowdown within an industry, likely leading to a sales plateau in the coming years.

Public company data shows gross profit falling in the new and used vehicle categories. Charts F.1 and F.2 (facing page) show the decline in new and used vehicle gross profit margin since 2013 for the public dealership companies.

According to industry analyst, David Whiston of Morningstar, the problem is excessive discounting among dealers needed to clear luxury and midline Japanese brand inventory. In his January report on Asbury Automotive Group, he states the problem is more of a supply issue from the vehicles previously being reserved for Chinese market now coming to the U.S., than a demand problem – which would be worse. Group 1 CEO Earl Hesterberg in an investors' conference call, stated a noticeable increase in pressure on the luxury brands due to oversupply, and the premium manufacturers fighting for market share. He went on to say Group 1 plans to “rightsize” the company’s luxury vehicles in the first

two quarters of 2016. In a July Automotive News article,

Lithia Motors Inc. CEO Bryan DeBoer stated, “Lithia still believes if you can continue to drive top-line volume in vehicles, it’s worth the sacrifice in margin because volume drives service revenue and back-end gains.” In the same article, Group 1 CFO, John Rickel, was quoted as saying finance & insurance (F&I) was lucrative and dealerships don’t want to miss on this opportunity.

The average decline in gross profit margin for new unit sales and used unit sales from 2014 to 2015 were 35 basis points and 62 basis points, respectively.

While gross margins slipped, the public dealers made up for some of

Chart E

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CHANGE IN AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICE BY AGE

TYPICAL BHPH INVENTORY

VEHICLE AGE

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Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016Chart F . 1 - F.2

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NEW UNIT GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

PENSKE ASHBURY LITHIA AUTONATION GROUP 1 SONIC

201520142013

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USED UNIT GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

PENSKE ASHBURY LITHIA AUTONATION GROUP 1 SONIC

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the difference by increasing F&I per unit profit. Chart G shows that each of the public dealership companies have grown F&I revenue per unit over the last three years.

When combined with F&I, parts and other back end operations, overall gross margin compression was not as drastic as per unit gross margin compression. The public company average change in overall gross profit margin from 2014 to 2015 was 22 basis points. Chart H (see next page) below shows the three-year history of gross profit margins of the public companies.

According to NADA reports, gross margin compression is occurring across the whole industry. Chart I below shows the change in overall gross profit margins by dealers, as reported by NADA. The estimate for 2015 was derived from NADA’s December Dealership Financial Profile.

Chart G

SONIC

GROUP 1

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LITHIA

ASBURY

PENSKE

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F& I REVENUE PER UNIT

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Chart H

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PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGINGROSS PROFIT MARGIN

DEALERSHIP MARGINS

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Chart I

VEHICLE AGE

The average vehicle age on the road rose to a record 11.5 years in the summer of 2015. According to Mark Seng of IHS Automotive, during the years following the recession, the average vehicle age increased about five times its traditional rate, reflecting the 40 percent drop in new vehicle sales in 2008 - 2009. In addition to age, the average length of ownership reached 77.8 months during 2015, a 26 percent increase over the prior year. The number of vehicles scrapped declined to slightly more than 11 million in 2014, down from 14 million in 2012. Dealers who have a strong service and parts operation should likely benefit from an aging population of vehicles.

CREDIT

According to data provided by Experian Automotive, much of the market for automotive lending in 2015 remained steady relative to 2014. The average credit score for borrowers of new vehicles was 711 in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to 712 in the fourth quarter of 2014. The credit score for borrowers for used car purchases reached 649 in the fourth quarter of 2015, a point higher than the same period in 2014.

The average monthly payment for borrowers for new and used vehicles increased 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. The number of borrowers for new vehicles getting terms over 73 months increased to 29 percent, up from 26 percent the previous year.

Interest rates haven’t moved much since the fourth quarter of 2014, with

the average new vehicle loan rate at 4.63 percent, up seven basis points, and the average used vehicle loan rate of 8.78 percent, up 13 basis points. The average interest rate for super prime borrowers was 2.7 percent for new purchases and 3.35 percent for

used purchases. In March 2016, credit rating agency

Fitch issued a warning that delinquencies on U.S subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) have eclipsed 2009 recessionary levels and are at a level not seen in nearly two

Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016

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decades. Subprime delinquencies of 60 days or more hit 5.16 percent in February of 2016. The credit rating agency cited increased competition leading to higher loan-to-value ratios and extended term leasing as the reason for the rise in delinquencies. It went on to state that performance within the prime sector remains stable, albeit slightly weaker.

Leasing hit a record 28.9 percent of all new vehicles sold in the fourth quarter of 2015. Leasing continues to grow generally because automakers are pushing the practice, consumers prefer the lower payments that often come with a lease, and leasing offers the ability to trade into a new car more often than financing the purchase. Lease penetration varies greatly by state, with New Jersey and

Michigan having the highest in the country at 47.5 percent, in direct contrast to Oklahoma's 1 percent penetration rate, according to data by IHS Automotive. In a June 15 article by Automotive News, Eric Lyman of ALG, Inc. reported that lease penetration rates are beginning to increase in other markets such as Texas, where lease penetration rose to 9.3 percent in 2014, up from 7.2

percent in 2012. Likely related to the increase in Texas, is the increase in the number of leased full-size pickups, with 5.8 percent penetration in 2012 to 10.1 percent in 2014.

DEALERSHIP ACQUISITION ACTIVITY

According to The Banks Report and cited in Kerrigan Advisors’ 2015 Full Year Report, 558 franchises were traded through 242 transactions in 2015. Of the total franchises traded, 165 (30 percent) were by non-traditional buyers such as family offices, private equity firms, and conglomerates. Only 38 franchises were purchased by public companies in 2015 (Kerrigan Advisors).

Despite only making six acquisitions in 2015, Lithia Motors, in a year-end 2015 presentation to

LEASING HIT A RECORD 28.9

PERCENT OF ALL NEW

VEHICLES SOLD IN THE

FOURTH QUARTER OF 2015.

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investors, stated that acquisition opportunities are abundant, with the top 10 dealership groups owning only 7 percent of the over 17,800 dealers in the market. Lithia has identified 2,660 potential acquisition targets across all market sizes (determined by vehicle registration numbers). Dealerships targeted for acquisition have an after-tax return on equity of 20 percent or greater. This usually translates into purchase price multiples of between 3 and 5 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) as shown in Chart J below, excerpted from Lithia's Q4 2015 update. Note 2014 is an outlier due to Lithia’s acquisition of DCH Auto Group.

According to a January 2016 article by Automotive News, some of the industry's most prominent dealership acquirers say they expect to do fewer deals in 2016 because they are unwilling, in the face of slipping profits, to pay prices that would

*Equity defined as investment costs, excluding new vehicles and assuming all real estate is leased at actual rent or if owned, a 7% capitalization rate. **Assumes steady state revenues 2 years after aquisition, EBITDA adjusted to include flooring interest as an operating expense.

# OF STORE

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ACQUISITION METRICS

Chart J

Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016presume a continuation of 2015's robust profit margins. However, the article states that sellers aren't ready to lower their asking prices just yet. Add to the fact that the stock prices of the six public dealership groups have fallen sharply since September 2015, and acquisition activity is certain to cool. Chart K (see next page) shows stock performance by the six public dealership groups from mid-September 2015 to mid-March 2016.

The relative stock value of the public dealer groups have a significant effect on the M&A transaction activity within the industry. Public companies will not buy a dealership unless the purchase price is cheaper, relative to earnings, than their own stock price and earnings. In other words, the acquisition must be accretive to earnings. So as stock prices fall, many public dealer groups are buying back their own stock, rather than using capital to purchase dealerships.

Most industry leaders expect 2016

to be the beginning of a sales plateau, making it harder for sellers to bump up the blue sky value by promising a brighter future. As buyers dial back their valuations, sellers will likely need time to adjust to the new reality that price multiples are stabilizing and the market is beginning to cool.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

The U.S. economy grew 2.4 percent in 2015, matching the gains made in 2014. The fourth quarter experienced a slowdown, growing only 0.7 percent, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2015. The ISM manufacturing index, a key metric on the health of manufacturing, was negative in the last two months of 2015, a technical recession. The 2016 corporate outlook is gloomy largely because of a strong U.S. dollar and weak commodity prices. According to Capital IQ, fourth quarter 2015 earnings are expected to shrink by 5 percent, potentially making the first back-to-back decline since 2009.

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In March 2016 the Federal Reserve announced it would hold interest rates steady, and indicated that it would likely raise rates by a total of 50 basis points in 2016 because of strong job growth gains and other promising economic indicators. This announcement was made three months after the Fed’s first rate hike in nearly a decade.

The rate hike announcement followed a weak retail sales report, led by a slower rate of automobile purchases, among other items considered to be part of a core retail sales group that corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product (GDP). The Fed’s decision to hold off on hiking rates also followed a sharp

selloff in the equity markets during the first two months of 2016.

Inflation has been below the Fed’s target of 2 percent for four years, allowing the Fed to hold off rate hikes. However, with an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent as of February 2016, most economist believe accelerated inflation is unavoidable, even with low energy prices.

The strength of the housing market is traditionally a major driver of economic healthand tends to be correlated with automotive sales. In February 2016, housing starts hit their highest reading since September 2015, with a growth rate of 7.2 percent for single-family homes, the highest since 2007. The National

Association of Realtors reported that total listings for February 2016 were down 18.5 percent from the number of homes on the market in February 2014.

Chart K

PUBLIC DEALER STOCK PERFORMANCE

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AUTONATION PENSKE LITHIAGROUP 1ASBURY SONIC

THE RATE HIKE

ANNOUNCEMENT FOLLOWED

A WEAK RETAIL SALES

REPORT, LED BY A SLOWER

RATE OF AUTOMOBILE

PURCHASES.

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Auto Dealers' Economic Outlook 2016MOVING FORWARD

It looks like the automotive industry is headed toward a plateau, as the threat of interest rate hikes loom and manufacturers rely on aggressive incentives. The industry may be finally putting a dent in the pent-up demand left over from 2008

and 2009. Low unemployment and low fuel prices, along with a historically low interest rate environment should keep vehicle sales from dipping below 17 million SAAR for the foreseeable future, but dealers should prepare for flat sales growth by cutting costs and focusing

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

TRAVIS FLENNIKEN, CFA, CVA Litigation, Valuation, & Transaction Advisory Manager423.702.7252

[email protected]

ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• Auto Dealer Valuation and Transaction Specialist• Only employee of HHM to hold the CFA designation.• Has served as a financial professional since the late 90’s.• Worked for one of the top business valuation firms in the country, where he

focused on mergers and acquisitions.• Has extensive experience in corporate finance as an advisor to corporate

executives on making strategic acquisitions, and representing business owners in the sale of their company.

• Serves as adjunct professor at Bryan College, designing the curriculum and teaching courses in Managerial Economics and Finance.

EDUCATION

• University of Tennessee at Knoxville, MBA• University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Bachelor of Science in Finance

PROFESSIONAL & OUTSIDE AFFILIATIONS

• CFA Institute• Bethany Christian Services, Board Member• Mountain Fellowship Church, Member• Certified Valuation Analyst, National Association of Certified Valuators and

Analysts

AREAS OF CONCENTRATION

• Management Advisory Services• Business Valuation• Litigation Services

in F&I and backend operations. Dealerships have historically been resilient, maintaining profitability, even in bad times, so 2016 should be a profitable year for most.

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• Bureau of Economic Analysis• The Blue Sky Report, A Kerrigan Quarterly, 2015 Full Year Report, March 2016• St. Louis Federal Reserve – FRED Economic Data• NADA Dealership Profile, December 2015, nada.org• 2015 Used Vehicle Market Report, edmunds.com• TRUECar Press Releases; truecar.com • As Sales Lose Sizzle, is Industry Prepared, Automotive News, Boudette, Neal E. and Nelson, Gabe. January 16, 2016• This Sales Trend Signals Tough 2016: AutoNation CEO, cnbc.com, Belvedere, Matt. January 6, 2016• Weal U.S. Retail Sales Highlight Risks to Economic Outlook, reuters.com, Mutikani, Lucina. March 15, 2016• As Carmakers and Dealers Embrace Leasing to Boost Sales, Analysts Mull Finance Option’s Limits, Automotive News,

Henry, Jim. June 8, 2015• State of the Automotive Finance Market, Fourth Quarter 2015, Experian, Zabritski, Melinda• Fitch: U.S. Subprime Auto ABS Delinquencies Hit Highest Level Since 1996, Newswire, Fitch Ratings. March 14, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: Asbury Automotive Group, Inc., Whitson, David, February 4, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: AutoNation Inc., Whitson, David, January 29, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: Group 1 Automotive, Inc., Whitson, David, February 12, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: Lithia Motors, Inc., Whitson, David, January 6, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: Penske Automotive Group, Inc., Whitson, David, February 18, 2016• Morningstar Equity Analyst Report: Sonic Automotive Inc., Whitson, David, January 28, 2016• Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. 2015 Annual Report and Investors’ Presentation• AutoNation Inc. 2015 Annual Report• Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 2015 Annual Report and Investors’ Presentation• Lithia Motors, Inc. 2015 Annual Report and Investors’ Presentation• Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 2015 Annual Report and Investors’ Presentation• Sonic Automotive, Inc. 2015 Annual Report and Investors’ Presentation• Opinion: These Homebuilding Trends are Having a Major Impact on the U.S. Economy, Marketwatch.com, Reeves, Jeff.

March 21, 2016• National Association of Realtors economic data, realtor.org• U.S. Census – Housing Starts, census.gov

SOURCES

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