Reporting Complexity (with Complexity)

"Mass Media and Public Policy"

Reporting Complexity (with Complexity):General Systems Theory, Complexity and

Simulation Modeling

Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic Journalism

Santa Fe, New Mexicowww.analyticjournalism.com

t o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m




2 Univ. of Indiana-School of Public and Environmental Affairs-March ’10 © J.T.Johnson 2010

Online presentation for…

INDIANA UNIVERSITY - PURDUE UNIVERSITYINDIANAPOLIS

School of Public and Environmental AffairsSchool of Journalism

COURSE: Mass Media & Public AffairsMarch 31, 2010


Inst. for Analytic Journalism

www.analyticjournalism.com Convince journos to report the other

50% of the story – the quantitative half

IAJ’s four cournerstones: General Systems Theory Statistics Visual statistics/ data visualization Simulation modeling


Topics: Evolution of systems thinking

Hannibal's Army and birthday cakes General Systems Theory Chaos Complexity

Cellular automata - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life

Complex Adaptive Systems Agent-Based Modeling

Applied Complexity/Simulation Modeling

Calculus for Journalism


Think of a phenomenon as . . .

. . . an organism (with stages of life, blood, head, and heart)

. . . a factory (with raw material, source of power, bosses, and workers)

. . . a building (with foundation, windows, and façade)

. . . an ecology (with niches, climates, and food chains)

Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000

http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm








Examples of Systems

Not all are dynamic, but they can be analyzed with similar concepts and tools.

Look for/measure patterns


Narrowing the Focus: GST

SYSTEMS: "…things [agents/variables/sub-systems] that collectively behave differently as opposed to their behavior when separated.“

"Studies the organization of phenomena.... Investigates both principles common to all complex entities and the 'models' (often mathematical) which can be used to describe them.“

Resource: Mental Model Musings http://www.outsights.com/systems/welcome.htm

http://www.outsights.com/systems/welcome.htm

http://www.outsights.com/systems/welcome.htm


Why General Systems Theory?

Learn the structures and their process. When transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred.

When studying a new discipline: simply learn the labels on the structures – and the processes -- in the new discipline.


Brief introduction to GST

Attributes of a system….1) A system exists in an environment/context

2) A system has boundaries1) Physical

2) Conceptual

3) Legal: corporate, jurisdiction

4) Geographic

5) Cultural

3) Composed of variables, (elements or agents) that can be defined, or described, separately. Sub-variables. Tree-to-branch-to-leaf-to-cell Scaling or “levels”


Attributes of a system….

4) There are relationships between variables1) Horizontal relationships2) Vertical (i.e. hierarchical)

relationships

5) A system has goals, self-defined or with a definition imposed by the system OR outside observer1) Make money2) Provide for group security, happiness,

procreation


Brief introduction to GST

5) A system learns from changes in its variables and/or environment1) Feedback loops2) Suggests changes over time in

system state, in variables, in type and degree of relationships

Challenges in GST: 1) Where to enter the system for study2) How measure and tell/show changes?3) How to determine significance of

which changes


A newspaper as a system

Editorial

Production

Circulation

Advertising

“Backoffice”


A newspaper as a system

Editorial

Local News

Int’l News Business Sports


A newspaper variables and sub-systems

Editorial

Local News

Int’l News Business Sports

High SchoolCollegeProfessional


System hierarchy and “zooming”

Editorial

Sports

Newspaper

Media

Football

H. S. Football

Higher Concept

Lower Concept


Online enterprise Dynamic system model

http://www.simventure.com/models.html

http://www.simventure.com/models.html


Examples of Systems

Not all are dynamic, but they can be analyzed with similar concepts and tools.

Look for/measure patterns


Value of GST

Demands definition/focus on exactly what system are you talking about?

Demands consideration of level of analysis, i.e. “zooming” levels of focus

Demands definition of variables and then the relative importance of those variables

Demands consideration of relationships between variables


GST as basis for simulation models

Once system, goals, variables and relationships defined, start to ask “How do we measure the strength of those relationships?”

This is where dynamic simulation models (can) kick in.


These activities involve resources and power

Resources: The symbolic and material components a system needs to carry out its tasks.

Examples of resources a system might need or use to maintain itself?

Power: The use of resources by one system in order to gain compliance by another system.

Examples of how a system might use its resources to use its power?


Complex Systems

Isle of Manhattan model Stock market Social insect and ant colonies The brain Political parties and communities Social networks


Complex System

Typically, same characteristics of General System in initial state

CpxSys: greater than sum of its parts in terms of actions and potentials

CpxSys: variables/agents are coupled in nonlinear manner.

Impossible to replicate dynamic processes

Impossible to predict emergence


Other definitions of CAS

Dynamic network of many agents (cells, species, individuals, firms, nations) acting in constantly acting (often in parallel) and reacting to other agents.

Agents are adaptive, i.e. “learn” according to rules and changing environment.

“Systems on the edge of chaos.” Maximum variety and creativity leads to new possibilities. [Emergence]


Characteristics of Complex Systems


Applying Complexity to telling complex stories

RRAW-P processResearchReportingAnalysisWritingPublish/Produce/Package

Let GST drive your ResearchReportingAnalysis

Let Data InAnalysisInfoOut drive your analysis

DIAIO usually/should reflect change over time, i.e. “dynamic” aspects of change


Applied Complexity/Simulation

Emergency mgmt via Simtable

Boat Traffic in Venice

BigPharma R&D portfolio

Subway evacuation simulation

Criminal Justice through courts

http://www.vimeo.com/3225999




Criminal Justice System



Emergency mgmt via Simtable

Boat Traffic in Venice

BigPharma R&D portfolio

Subway evacuation simulation

Criminal Justice through courts

Child welfare

All are data-based, not myth-based Potential for real-

time update

Generate analytic statistics

Allow “what if” w/out cost by admin., stakeholders AND public

http://www.simtable.com/







Downside Initial cost can seem to be high, esp. when

audience doesn’t understand purpose Requires investment to learn (and keep

learning) Requires careful data collection and

updating Requires education for users and public For traditional journalism, not apparent

how to make money


Soooooo ?????

Constantly work to apply GST to any phenomena/topic/story

Learn to apply fundamental arithmetic

Learn how to interrogate your data Be constantly alert to what are the

evolving analytic and presentation methods on non-journalism/non-PA disciplines.

"Mass Media and Public Policy"

Reporting Complexity (with Complexity):General Systems Theory, Complexity and

Simulation Modeling







Reporting Complexity (with Complexity)

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