Report to Congress 2012
Transcript of Report to Congress 2012
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NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCESNATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERINGINSTITUTE OF MEDICINENATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
REPORT TO CONGRESS
2012
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When President Abraham Lincoln signed the congressional charter that created the National Academy of Sciences in 1863, the nation was locked in a bitter Civil War. Yet Congress and the president saw the need for independent, expert scientific and technical advice; one of our first studies recommended ways to improve navigation for the Union’s fleet of ironclad warships.
In 2013, the Academy — which has expanded to include the National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine — celebrates 150 years of service to the nation at a time when science, engineering, and medicine are more essential than ever for prosperity and security, not only in the U.S. but around the world.
Today’s dramatic breakthroughs in science, technology, and medicine would not be possible without the contributions of world-class research universities. However, a 2012 report by the National Research Council warns that U.S. research universities are in danger of serious decline. The report calls on the federal and state governments, industry, and universities to each do its part to ensure that our research universities continue to be critical wellsprings of progress.
Tackling the obesity epidemic is one of the nation’s best opportunities to prevent premature death and chronic diseases such as diabetes while also lowering skyrocketing health care costs. An ambitious report issued by the Institute of Medicine in 2012 sifts through more than 800 obesity prevention recommendations and identifies those that could work together most effectively to speed change.
Late in 2012, the federal government asked the National Academy of Sciences to take on a new, 30-year research initiative focused on human health and environmental protection in the Gulf of Mexico. To be funded over a period of years as a result of the settlements between the Department of Justice and BP and Transocean Deepwater Inc., the program will include issues concerning the safety of offshore oil drilling and hydrocarbon production and transportation in the region. As we do with all of our work, we will draw upon the expertise of the nation’s most knowledgeable scientists, engineers, health professionals, and other experts.
Throughout our history, NAS, NAE, IOM, and the Research Council have provided independent, authoritative advice on science, engineering, and medicine. This Report to Congress summarizes a selection of studies issued in 2012. We look forward to continuing in this tradition of service to the nation.
RALPH J. CICERONE CHARLES M. VEST HARVEY V. FINEBERGPresident President PresidentNational Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of MedicineChair Vice ChairNational Research Council National Research Council
A Message From the Presidents
SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND SECURITY
Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative 5
Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None 5
Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis 6
Managing for High-Quality Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories 7
Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas 8
Meeting Critical Laboratory Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three Options 8
The Safety Promise and Challenge of Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended Acceleration 9
NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus 10
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States 11
Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives 11
EDUCATION AND SOCIAL ISSUES
Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security 14
Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century 15
Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12 STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? 15
Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population 16
Deterrence and the Death Penalty 17
Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border 18
Selected Studies Highlights of
HEALTH AND SAFETY
Accelerating Progress in Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation 20
Best Care at Lower Cost: The Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America 20
Treatment for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations: Initial Assessment 21
The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? 22
Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces 22
Geographic Adjustment in Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access, Quality, and Efficiency 23
NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta 26
Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future 26
Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes and Flowing Waters in Florida 27
Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater 28
Alternatives for Managing the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites 29
Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the United States 29
Also in This ReportStudies and Projects Completed in 2012 31
Current Congressionally Authorized Activities 42
Revenue Applied to 2012 50
About the National Academies 51
Highlights of
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SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND SECURITY
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BEFORE DISASTER STRIKES
Communities and the nation have difficult choices
about the best ways to ensure basic security
and quality of life in the face of natural hazards
or deliberate terrorist attacks. The stakes are
high: The economic damage caused by just one
natural disaster in 2012 — Hurricane Sandy — is
estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. And in
2011, disasters caused approximately $55 billion
in damages.
Without innovations to improve resilience,
the cost of disasters will continue to rise both
in absolute dollar amounts and in losses to
social, cultural, and environmental systems at
the community level, says Disaster Resilience: A
National Imperative. The report calls on the U.S.
to formulate a national vision for increasing the
country’s ability to prepare, respond, and recover,
with complementary federal policies and locally
driven actions.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security,
in conjunction with other stakeholders, should
develop a national resilience scorecard to help
communities assess their resilience and track
improvements, the report says. The scorecard
should be adaptable to focus specifically on the
hazards that threaten each community and should
measure both the ability of critical infrastructure
to withstand and recover from impacts of
earthquakes, floods, severe storms, or other
disasters and the social, economic, cultural, and
environmental capabilities of the community to
respond and recover.
Improving resilience should be seen as a long-
term process, but it can be coordinated around
measurable short-term goals. The report identifies
universal steps that all communities can take to
improve their disaster resilience, such as adopting
and enforcing building codes and standards
appropriate to existing local hazards.
The study by the National Academy of
Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and
Institute of Medicine was funded by the U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Forest Service, U.S.
Department of Energy, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department
of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency
Management Agency, U.S. Geological Survey,
NASA, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory/
Community and Regional Resilience Institute.
A MODERN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
More than a decade ago, the National Weather
Service completed a major modernization effort
that involved upgrading weather observing and
forecast systems and reorganizing the agency’s
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field office structure. While the effort led to
significant improvements, the agency must still
keep pace with science and technology, meet
expanding user needs, and partner with other
weather, water, and climate-related institutions.
To meet these challenges, NWS should evolve
and change how it operates by prioritizing core
capabilities, evaluating its structure, and broadening
collaboration and cooperation with other
institutions, says Weather Services for the Nation:
Becoming Second to None. Embracing such changes
could allow NWS to keep up with technological
advances and provide quality services.
The agency’s challenges are exacerbated
by uncertain and constrained budget resources
and increasingly high operational performance
standards. NWS should prioritize the capabilities
that only it can provide — such as collecting and
integrating observations and issuing forecasts,
watches, and warnings, the report says.
The NWS’s capacity to serve the public would
be broadened by increasing its collaboration
and cooperation with other public and private
weather, water, and climate organizations.
Strengthening its engineering and procurement
processes for major systems — including ground-
based sensor, gauge, and radar networks;
satellites and ground processing; and major
communications and processing systems —
would also amplify NWS’s capabilities.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY
Much of the discussion about climate change
has focused on such effects as floods, droughts,
sea-level rise, and storm surges. But could these
climate-related events also pose a threat to U.S.
national security?
Climate and Social Stress: Implications for
Security Analysis says that those events could
indeed disrupt social and economic systems in
other countries, which in turn would pose security
risks to the United States. Security threats are
most likely to occur in regions with vulnerable
populations, weak infrastructure, limited response
capacities, and possible political instability.
The U.S. intelligence community should
monitor for and estimate the likelihood of
potentially disruptive climate-related events and
the ability of countries and regions of security
importance to the U.S. to cope with them, the
report says. Taking into account the key variables
that affect exposure and vulnerabilities, the
intelligence community should conduct periodic
“stress testing” for countries, regions, and
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critical global systems that are identified as both
vulnerable to the effects of climate change and
important to U.S. national security. In addition
to assessing the likely effects of potentially
disruptive climate events and whether they could
threaten security, these assessments could also
be used by the U.S. government or international
aid agencies to identify and perhaps help high-
risk areas reduce susceptibility or improve
response capacities to climate-related changes,
the report says.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. intelligence community.
MANAGEMENT AT NATIONAL SECURITY
LABORATORIES
The National Nuclear Security Administration
looks to its security laboratories for scientific,
technical, and engineering expertise in managing
the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile. However,
growing concerns about the overall quality of
science and engineering (S&E) work at the Los
Alamos, Sandia, and Lawrence Livermore national
laboratories prompted Congress to ask the
National Research Council for an independent
review. The first phase of the study addressed
management concerns at the laboratories; a
second phase is examining S&E quality.
Scientists and engineers at these laboratories
appear committed to their work and core
mission, says Managing for High-Quality Science
and Engineering at the NNSA National Security
Laboratories, a report on the first phase of the
study. However, a “broken relationship” between
the National Nuclear Security Administration
and the labs threatens to erode the quality of
the scientific research and engineering being
conducted there.
An intrusive degree of oversight stemming
from past security and safety concerns at one of
the labs has led to a breakdown of trust, the report
says. However, the change in management and
operations contractors at Los Alamos and Lawrence
Livermore in 2006 and 2007 — while stressful
and adding some $100 million annually to each
laboratory’s overhead — is not the root cause of
this problem.
Safety and security systems at the laboratories
have been strengthened to the point where
the labs no longer require special attention,
the report says. An understanding is needed
to rebalance the relationship and rebuild trust
between NNSA and lab management. In addition,
Congress should support the broadening of the
laboratories’ missions into other areas of national
security research, which would potentially
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increase the laboratories’ appeal to top-quality
scientists and engineers.
The Research Council study is being funded by
the National Nuclear Security Administration.
ANIMAL DISEASE RESEARCH NEEDS
Proper detection, diagnosis, and response to
outbreaks of animal disease are essential to
protecting public health, the food supply, and
animal agriculture. Currently the aging Plum
Island Animal Disease Center located off Long
Island conducts large-animal disease research,
but it is too small to meet the nation’s needs.
And the facility does not have Biosafety Level 4
laboratory capability, which is essential for working
with exotic and dangerous agents that affect
both humans and animals and at present have no
vaccine or treatment available.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security
selected Manhattan, Kansas, as the site for a new
facility, the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility
(NBAF), and in 2010 the department published
a risk assessment of that site. At the request of
Congress, the National Research Council reviewed
the assessment and found it contained flawed
methods and assumptions in determining the
possibility and costs of an accidental pathogen
release. In response, Congress mandated that DHS
revise its assessment to address the shortcomings
and directed the Research Council to evaluate the
updated assessment.
Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk
Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-
Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas says that
while the revised assessment is a significant
improvement over the original, there are still a
number of technical deficiencies, and the analysis
inadequately characterizes risks associated with
operating NBAF at the proposed site. DHS’s
assessment underestimates the possibility of an
accidental pathogen release, and some of the
risk analysis methods were misinterpreted and
misapplied during analysis.
Another Research Council report on the
proposed facility, Meeting Critical Laboratory
Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three
Options, explores constructing NBAF as designed,
building a scaled-back version, or maintaining
current capabilities at the Plum Island center
while conducting Biosafety Level 4 large-animal
operations at capable foreign laboratories.
Out of these options, the report concludes
that constructing NBAF as designed or as a scaled-
back version could meet the nation’s needs in the
long term. However, the proposed as-designed
facility would cost a considerable $1.14 billion
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and does not leverage existing national resources
for high-level biocontainment. With the second
option, a partnership between a central national
laboratory of reduced scope and size and a
distributed laboratory network can effectively
protect the United States, potentially save money,
reduce redundancies while increasing efficiencies,
and enhance the cohesiveness of a national system
of biocontainment laboratories. However, the cost
implications of reducing the scope and capacity
of a central facility are not known. The third
option, maintaining the Plum Island facility, would
come with substantial costs, and there could be
logistical difficulties in partnering with international
laboratories, especially during an emergency. The
report stresses that Plum Island should remain in
operation until a suitable replacement opens.
Since the reports were released, DHS has
issued a contract to build a central utility that will
serve the planned national laboratory in Kansas.
Both studies were funded by the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security.
BETTER OVERSIGHT OF VEHICLE
ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS
In recent years, the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration received numerous complaints
about Toyota vehicles accelerating suddenly
without warning, leading to accidents and injuries.
Some motorists suspected faulty electronic throttle
systems, but NHTSA attributed the problem to
drivers pressing the gas pedal by mistake or to
gas pedals sticking or getting entrapped in floor
mats. Although a subsequent investigation by
NASA would support those conclusions, persistent
questions led NHTSA to ask the National Research
Council to examine the issue.
NHTSA’s decision to close its investigation of
Toyota’s electronic throttle systems was justified,
concludes The Safety Promise and Challenge of
Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended
Acceleration. However, the entire incident
underscores the increasing role of electronic
systems in automobiles and the new safety
oversight challenges that the agency must be
prepared to meet.
It is “troubling” that NHTSA could not
convincingly address public concerns about
the safety of automotive electronics, the report
says, especially since electronic throttle systems
are relatively simple technologies. To respond
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effectively and confidently to claims of defects
in the more complex electronic systems, both in
present-day and future vehicles, NHTSA will require
access to additional specialized technical expertise.
The report recommends that NHTSA
establish a standing technical advisory panel of
individuals with backgrounds central to the design,
development, and safety assurance of automotive
electronics systems. NHTSA should also conduct
a comprehensive review to determine the specific
capabilities needed to monitor and investigate
flaws in electronics-intensive vehicles.
Since the report was released, NHTSA has
appointed and convened the recommended
expert panel.
The Research Council study was funded by
NHTSA.
NEW DIRECTION FOR NASA
NASA’s endeavors in human spaceflight, Earth and
space science, and aeronautics are hampered by
a mismatch between the programs to which the
agency is committed and the budgets provided.
The pace and approach to a number of NASA’s
programs, projects, and activities will not be
sustainable if the NASA budget remains flat.
Without national agreement on the agency’s
strategic goals and objectives, NASA cannot be
expected to establish or work toward achieving
long-term priorities, says NASA’s Strategic Direction
and the Need for a National Consensus. The White
House should take the lead in forging a new
consensus on NASA’s future in order to more closely
align the agency’s budget and objectives and
remove restrictions impeding efficient operations.
The report notes, for example, that an interim
goal of NASA’s human spaceflight program is
to visit an asteroid by 2025. However, there is
limited evidence that the goal is widely accepted
by NASA’s own work force, by the nation as a
whole, or by the international community. Such
lack of consensus as well as budget uncertainty
has undermined NASA’s ability to guide program
planning and allocate funding.
To reduce the discrepancy between the
overall size of NASA’s budget and its current
portfolio of missions, facilities, and personnel, the
report identifies options the nation could pursue,
including instituting an aggressive restructuring
program and engaging in more cost-sharing
enterprises with other agencies, the private sector,
and international partners.
The National Research Council study was
funded by NASA.
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A SAFE NUCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE
First proposed nearly 50 years ago, the
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
would prohibit nuclear-explosion testing in all
environments and establish a global network of
monitoring stations to help track compliance.
The treaty will enter into force after ratification by
the 44 countries that possessed nuclear power or
research reactors in 1996 and participated in the
treaty’s negotiation. The U.S. Senate considered
and declined to provide consent to ratifying the
treaty in 1999, although the U.S. has observed a
testing moratorium since October 1992.
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty:
Technical Issues for the United States finds that the
U.S. is now in a better position than at any time
in the past to maintain a safe and effective nuclear
weapons stockpile without testing and to monitor
clandestine nuclear testing abroad. The report
does not take a stand on whether the U.S. should
ratify the treaty.
U.S. global monitoring capabilities are superior
to those of the International Monitoring System
(IMS), which is now nearly complete, and can
focus on countries of national concern. However,
the United States should support the completion
and operation of the IMS regardless of whether
the treaty enters into force, the report says. The
IMS provides valuable data to the U.S., both as a
common baseline for international assessment and
as a way of revealing potential violations when the
U.S. needs to keep its own data classified.
Technologies for detecting clandestine testing
have improved significantly in the past decade.
And although weapons threats could arise without
being detected even if a test ban existed, they
would not require the U.S. to return to weapons
testing in order to respond.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S.
Department of State, Carnegie Corporation of New
York, and National Academy of Sciences.
IMPROVING U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE
U.S. missile defense systems are designed to protect
the U.S. homeland, military forces, and allies against
nuclear or conventional ballistic missile attacks
from regional actors such as Iran or North Korea.
One such system is known as boost-phase missile
defense, which is supposed to shoot down enemy
missiles immediately following their launch.
Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An
Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-
Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other
Alternatives says to more effectively defend against
ballistic missile attacks, the U.S. should concentrate
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on defense systems that intercept enemy missiles
in midcourse.
While boost-phase systems are theoretically
possible, they are not “practical or feasible”
because they would have only a few minutes in
which to intercept enemy missiles during the boost
phase, and air- or ground-based systems generally
cannot be located close enough to potential
threats to be effective. Space-based interceptors
of boost-phase launches would require hundreds
of satellites and cost as much as $500 billion to
acquire and operate over a 20-year span — at
least 10 times as much as any other approach, the
report estimates.
Midcourse defense systems provide more
battle space for multiple opportunities to identify
and shoot down targets, the report says. Currently,
the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)
system, which deploys 30 midcourse interceptors
at military bases in Alaska and California, provides
an “early but fragile” U.S. homeland defense
capability for a potential threat from North Korea.
However, the GMD has limited ability to defend
the U.S. from missiles launched by countries
other than North Korea, and current planned
improvements will not adequately address these.
To overcome these shortcomings, the report
recommends adding a third interceptor site to
the U.S. Northeast and several technical fixes
to make the GMD both more effective and less
expensive, such as developing smaller but more
capable interceptor missiles using already tested
technologies and employing a suite of X-band
radar components at five existing early-warning
radar sites. Provided that the U.S. GMD system
is improved, then the final phase of the program
in Europe — aimed at preventing long-range
missiles launched in Iran from reaching the U.S.
— should be canceled. This phase would be
unnecessary for European defense and less than
optimal for U.S. protection.
Since the report was released, the Obama
administration has canceled the last phase of the
program in Europe.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.
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EDUCATION AND SOCIAL ISSUES
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U.S. RESEARCH UNIVERSITIES
For more than a century, U.S. research universities
have been incubators for American prosperity
and ingenuity. Research at these institutions
has played an essential role in the development
of game-changing inventions such as lasers,
computers, and blood thinners. And graduates
have created and propelled businesses that
employ millions of Americans.
While U.S. research universities are still among
the best in the world, they are in danger of serious
decline, warns Research Universities and the Future
of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our
Nation’s Prosperity and Security. The report urges
the federal government, states, industries, and
universities to renew a long tradition of strong,
mutually beneficial partnerships.
Universities are facing critical challenges that
threaten to erode the quality of research and
education these institutions can provide, the report
says. Federal funding for research has flattened
or declined. State funding has also dropped over
the last decade — by more than 20 percent on
average and by as much as 50 percent in some
cases. At the same time, other countries have
increased R&D funding and are pouring significant
resources into their own institutions.
To address these issues, Congress and the
administration should fully fund the America
COMPETES Act, which would double the level of
basic research supported by the National Science
Foundation and other federal agencies.
As budgets recover from the recession, state
governments should strive to restore and maintain
per-student funding for higher education to levels
equal to the period of 1987-2002, as adjusted for
inflation. Businesses, which have long relied on
research universities for talent and technology,
should also partner with universities in early-stage
research and graduate education.
The report calls on the nation’s research
universities to significantly increase their cost-
effectiveness and productivity while raising
graduation rates, reducing the time needed to
complete degrees, and aligning doctoral programs
with careers.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, John D.
and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, National
Science Foundation, and U.S. Department of Energy.
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TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY KNOWLEDGE
AND SKILLS
Business, political, and educational leaders are
increasingly calling on schools to teach students a
range of broad skills they will need to navigate a
rapidly changing world — skills such as problem
solving, critical thinking, and communication. Such
skills are often referred to as “21st century skills” or
“deeper learning.”
These skills are best developed within the
teaching and learning of academic subjects and are
key to helping students master academic subject
matter, says Education for Life and Work: Developing
Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st
Century. By engaging in deeper learning, students
go beyond rote learning of facts and procedures
to understand underlying principles. They develop
knowledge and skills that can be transferred to
solve new problems and navigate new situations in
a subject area.
This type of learning will be needed to meet
the goals set by the new state standards for
English language arts, mathematics, and science.
But creating school environments that support
deeper learning and the development of 21st
century competencies in these disciplines will
require changes in teaching methods, curricula,
and assessments.
The federal and state governments should
support this shift, establishing policies and
programs to help students develop transferable
knowledge and skills. For example, in reauthorizing
the Elementary and Secondary Education
Act, Congress should support the systemic
development, implementation, and evaluation of
measures to facilitate deeper learning and students’
development of 21st century competencies.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York,
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, John D. and
Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Nellie Mae
Education Foundation, Pearson Foundation, Raikes
Foundation, Susan Crown Exchange Fund, and
Stupski Foundation.
MONITORING PROGRESS IN STEM
EDUCATION
Many states are adopting rigorous common core
standards in mathematics and science for students
in kindergarten through grade 12. These new
policy initiatives provide an opportunity to address
challenges that have been identified in students’
performance and persistence in these fields.
Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12
STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? proposes
a set of indicators that can be used by school
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districts, states, and federal agencies to monitor
progress and improve education in science,
technology, engineering, and mathematics. Each
indicator is linked directly to a recommendation
from a 2011 National Research Council report
that has informed the development of the core
standards. The proposed indicators focus on key
aspects of teaching and learning rather than on
administrative or enrollment data. Over time, they
would measure progress in students’ access to
quality learning, educators’ capacity to teach STEM
subjects, and policy and funding initiatives for
STEM education.
The report offers a framework for a national
reporting and monitoring system that would
measure student knowledge, interest, and
participation in the STEM disciplines; track local,
state, and federal investments in K-12 STEM
education; provide information about the STEM
education work force; and facilitate strategic
planning for federal investments and work-force
development. If implemented, such a monitoring
system could provide needed data to make informed
decisions about improving K-12 STEM education.
The Research Council study was funded by the
National Science Foundation.
ECONOMICS OF AN AGING NATION
The demographic profile of the United States is
undergoing a major shift to an older population.
While much focus has been on aging baby
boomers, the trend is likely to persist well into future
generations. An aging population will have broad
economic consequences for the country, particularly
for federal programs that support the elderly.
The nation has many good options for
responding to population aging, but the
transition to sustainable policies will be smoother
and less costly if steps are taken now, says Aging
and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of
an Older Population.
Together, the costs of Social Security, Medicare,
and Medicaid currently total roughly 40 percent
of all federal spending and 10 percent of the
nation’s gross domestic product. Because of overall
longer life expectancy and lower birth rates, these
programs will have more beneficiaries with relatively
fewer workers contributing to support them in the
coming decades. Population aging will drive up
public health care expenditures and make these
programs unsustainable unless action is taken.
Adapting to this new economic landscape
entails costs and policy options with different
implications for the different generations that will
bear the costs or receive the benefits. According
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to the report, the ultimate national response will
likely be some combination of major structural
changes to public support programs, more savings
during people’s working years, and longer working
lives. In addition, workers can better prepare for
retirement by planning ahead and adapting their
saving and spending habits.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Department of Treasury with
supplemental funding from the National Institute
on Aging.
DETERRENCE AND THE DEATH PENALTY
For decades, researchers have tried to determine
whether the death penalty deters murder. Though
many studies have attempted to provide the
answer, they offer conflicting results.
Deterrence and the Death Penalty concludes
that the research to date does not provide
evidence for or against the proposition that the
death penalty affects homicide rates and should
not serve as a basis to inform policy decisions.
What’s more, the studies are not asking the right
question: Is capital punishment more effective as
a deterrent than alternative punishments, such
as a life sentence without the possibility of parole?
The report finds that studies on the death
penalty thus far are based on implausible or
unsupported assumptions about potential
murderers’ perceptions of and response to capital
punishment. Many studies have simply assumed
that potential murderers respond to the actual
risk of execution, though there is no basis for that
assumption. Moreover, determining the actual risk
poses great complexities even for well-informed
researchers, let alone would-be murderers. For
instance, only 15 percent of people who have been
sentenced to death since 1976 have actually been
executed, and a large fraction of death sentences
are reversed.
These intrinsic shortcomings severely limit
what can be learned from the existing research, the
report says. Researchers should collect data that
consider both capital and noncapital punishments
for murder and use statistical methods based on
more credible assumptions about the effect of
capital punishment on homicide rates.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the Tides Foundation, Proteus Action
League, and National Institute of Justice.
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SECURITY AT THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER
To better secure and manage the border
between the United States and Mexico, the U.S.
Department of Homeland Security has stepped up
its enforcement efforts over the past decade. While
the number of unauthorized migrants apprehended
at the border has decreased during that time,
one cannot attribute the decrease to enforcement
without an estimate of the number of attempted
border crossings during the same period.
Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-
Mexico Border finds that making such an estimate
will require modeling approaches that combine
data from existing U.S. and Mexican household,
migration, and border crossing surveys with data
from DHS’s enforcement database. In order to
develop, refine, and continually validate such
complex modeling approaches, DHS will need
to engage with the broader scientific community
and make its data widely available to researchers.
DHS could use a variety of approaches to protect
potentially sensitive information in the database.
The National Research Council study was funded
by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
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AMERICA’S WEIGHT PROBLEM
Almost one-third of children and two-thirds
of adults in the U.S. are overweight or obese,
conditions that have been linked to chronic medical
problems such as diabetes, hypertension, and
cardiovascular disease. Nearly 21 percent of U.S.
annual medical spending is directed to obesity-
related diseases; childhood obesity alone accounts
for than $14 billion in direct medical costs.
America has been too slow in arresting its
obesity epidemic, says Accelerating Progress in
Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation.
Addressing this complex, stubborn problem
requires a comprehensive set of solutions that work
together to spur across-the-board societal changes.
The report focuses on five critical goals for
preventing obesity: integrating physical activity
into people’s daily lives, making healthy food
and beverage options available everywhere,
transforming marketing and messages about
nutrition and activity, making schools a national
focal point for obesity prevention, and galvanizing
employers and health care professionals to
support healthy lifestyles. More than 800 obesity
prevention recommendations were assessed to
identify those that could work together most
effectively, reinforce one another’s impact, and
accelerate obesity prevention.
Strategies are identified with the greatest
potential to speed success by making healthy
foods and beverages and opportunities for physical
activity easy, routine, and appealing aspects of
daily life. For example, the report says, 60 minutes
per day of physical activity in schools and increased
availability of lower-calorie, healthier options for
children in restaurants are two important ways to
accelerate change.
The Institute of Medicine study was funded by
the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
MORE BANG FOR HEALTH CARE DOLLARS
The U.S. spends considerably more on health care
than other industrialized nations. However, about
30 percent of U.S. health spending in 2009 —
roughly $750 billion — was wasted on unnecessary
services, excessive administrative costs, fraud,
and other problems. Moreover, inefficiencies
cause needless suffering. By one estimate, roughly
75,000 deaths in 2005 might have been avoided if
every state had delivered care at the quality level of
the best performing state.
The fact is, the nation’s health care system
has become too complex and costly to continue
business as usual, says Best Care at Lower Cost: The
Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America.
Achieving better, more affordable care will require
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system-wide changes that marshal advances in
science and technology to help transform the U.S.
health system into a “learning” system — one that
improves through transferring knowledge from
every care experience and new research discovery.
Better use of data is a critical element of a
continuously improving health system, the report
says. The health care system needs to embrace
new technologies to collect and tap clinical data
at the point of care and engage patients and their
families as partners. Mobile technologies and
electronic health records offer significant potential
to capture and share health data better.
In addition, health economists, researchers,
professional societies, and insurance providers
should work together on ways to measure
quality performance and design new payment
models and incentives that reward high-value
care. Increased transparency about the costs and
outcomes of care also boosts opportunities to
learn and improve and should be a hallmark of
institutions’ organizational cultures.
The Institute of Medicine study was funded
by Blue Shield of California Foundation, Charina
Endowment Fund, and Robert Wood Johnson
Foundation.
TREATING PTSD IN THE MILITARY
Blast injuries and posttraumatic stress disorder
have been called the “signature injuries” of the
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, with recent estimates
of PTSD among deployed service members at
around 13 percent to 20 percent. Congress asked
the Institute of Medicine to examine the military’s
ongoing efforts in treating PTSD.
The U.S. departments of Defense and Veterans
Affairs offer many programs and services for
PTSD, but treatment isn’t reaching everyone who
needs it, concludes Treatment for Posttraumatic
Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations:
Initial Assessment. DOD and VA should ensure that
service members and veterans who have PTSD
have timely access to evidence-based care.
Of the U.S. service members and veterans who
have served in Iraq and Afghanistan and screened
positive for PTSD symptoms, about 40 percent
have received a referral for additional evaluation
or treatment, and of those referred, about 65
percent go on to receive treatment, the report
notes. Although DOD and VA are making efforts
to reduce barriers to care, many obstacles remain.
For example, patients may not seek care because
of concerns that doing so will adversely affect their
military career or because they need to travel long
distances to reach a mental health provider. And
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providers might find it difficult to treat patients
because of lack of training or time or location issues.
DOD and VA should track better the
treatments that are given to patients as well as
their outcomes. The departments should also
institute research to evaluate the effectiveness of
their PTSD programs and services and disseminate
the findings widely. The report adds that PTSD
screening should be conducted at least once a year
for service members and veterans.
A second phase of the study, due in 2014,
will evaluate the success of specific programs and
services used to treat PTSD.
The Institute of Medicine study is being funded
by U.S. Department of Defense.
SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND MENTAL HEALTH
Many Americans find it difficult to receive proper
treatment for substance abuse and mental health
disorders. Two reports by the Institute of Medicine
examine the scope of these conditions among two
segments of the population: older Americans and
military service members.
The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce
for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? says that unless
there is a major effort to significantly boost the
number of health professionals and other service
providers able to supply care for mental health
and substance misuse or abuse, millions of baby
boomers will likely face difficulties getting diagnoses
and treatment as the population ages. Nearly one
in five older Americans has one or more of these
conditions, which, left untreated, can result in
higher medical costs and poorer health outcomes.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services leadership needs to promote national
attention to building a sufficient, well-trained work
force to meet the growing demand, the report
says. Organizations that accredit health and social
service professional schools and license providers
should ensure that all who see older patients —
including primary care physicians, nurses, and
social workers — are able to recognize signs and
symptoms of mental health conditions, neglect,
and substance misuse and abuse and provide at
least basic care.
The report calls for a redesign of Medicare and
Medicaid to guarantee coverage of counseling,
care management, and other types of services
crucial for treating mental health conditions and
substance use problems.
A similar situation hampers care for military
service members dealing with problems related
to misuse or abuse of alcohol and other drugs,
according to Substance Use Disorders in the U.S.
Armed Forces.
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Although data show prescription drug misuse
and binge drinking among military members
are on the rise, TRICARE — the military’s health
insurance provider — does not cover several
evidence-based treatments that are now standard
practice, including long-term use of certain
medications for the treatment of addiction. It also
does not cover treatment delivered in settings
other than specialized rehabilitation facilities.
TRICARE’s benefits should be revised to cover
maintenance medications and treatment in office-
based outpatient settings delivered by a range of
qualified providers.
Military health care professionals at all levels
need training to recognize patterns of substance
abuse and misuse as well as clear guidelines for
referring patients to specialists, the report says. The
U.S. Department of Defense should promote care
provided by a multidisciplinary team with carefully
prescribed roles and training, to include office-
based outpatient providers. This approach could
help alleviate the provider shortage created by the
military’s reliance on specialty clinics.
The armed forces should promote more
effective prevention strategies, moving away from
a permissive attitude toward alcohol by enforcing
regulations on underage drinking and reducing
the availability of alcohol on bases. They should
also work to ease the stigma that deters service
members from seeking care. Including screening
and intervention services within primary care
would help achieve this goal and increase the
number of places where service members and
families can receive basic care for these problems.
Both studies were funded by the U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services;
Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces was
also funded by the U.S. Department of Defense.
GEOGRAPHIC ADJUSTMENTS TO
MEDICARE PAYMENTS
Medicare is the largest payer of health care services
in the U.S., spending about $525 billion annually.
Although Medicare is a national program, it adjusts
payments to hospitals and health care practitioners
according to the geographic location in which
they provide service, acknowledging that the
cost of doing business varies around the country.
Federal law requires geographic adjustments to
be budget neutral, meaning any increase in the
amount paid to one hospital or practitioner must
be offset by a decrease to others so that national
payment remains level. In 2011 an Institute of
Medicine report recommended changing the way
that Medicare payments are adjusted to account
for these regional differences.
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A second report, Geographic Adjustment in
Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access,
Quality, and Efficiency, says that the proposed
recommendations would also improve the technical
accuracy of Medicare payments, which would
increase or decrease by less than 5 percent on
average for the majority of hospitals and most
physicians. However, those seemingly small
percentages could make significant differences to
certain providers and organizations, the report adds.
Given the relatively modest payment changes
that would occur in many regions and given that
geographic adjustments are only one factor in
setting Medicare reimbursements, revising these
calculations may not have a significant overall
impact on the distribution of providers and on
improving care access and quality in medically
underserved areas, the report says. It offered
several strategies that would be more effective
at boosting access to care than geographic
payment adjustments.
The Institute of Medicine study was funded by
the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services,
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
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SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF
CALIFORNIA’S BAY-DELTA
California’s Bay-Delta supplies water to agriculture
and metropolitan areas in much of the state. Over
time, the delta has been substantially modified to
meet growing demands, and this has affected the
delta’s ecosystem and wildlife.
Sustainable Water and Environmental
Management in the California Bay-Delta says that
the state’s simultaneous goals of attaining a
reliable water supply for California and protecting
and rehabilitating the delta’s ecosystem have
value, but better planning is required to identify
how trade-offs between these two goals will be
managed when water supplies are short. Failure
to acknowledge the increasing likelihood of water
scarcity in the area and craft plans and policies that
address this has made delta water management
more difficult than is necessary, the report says.
The extensive physical and ecological changes to
the delta over the last century make it impossible
to restore the habitat to its pre-disturbance state.
Overall, moving toward environmental
sustainability while continuing to supply the state
with water will require careful decision making.
Better definition and management of water
scarcity, increased collaboration between the
numerous agencies and organizations that oversee
the delta, and strategies to mitigate environmental
stressors that affect delta wildlife all will be needed.
In addition, the report says, an assessment of the
effects of climate change and projected sea-level
rise is essential, along with a comprehensive review
of water planning and management in anticipation
of future environmental and water supply needs.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior.
SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE WEST COAST
A warming planet triggered a rise in global sea
levels during the 20th century, and projections
suggest sea levels will rise at a higher rate over the
next 100 years. California, Oregon, and Washington
each have hundreds of miles of shoreline close to
valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands
vulnerable to rising sea levels. The three states asked
the National Research Council to assess how the
region would be affected.
Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California,
Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future
projects that the sea level off most of California
is expected to rise about 1 meter over the next
century, an amount slightly higher than projected
for global sea levels. Sea levels off Washington,
Oregon, and northern California will likely rise
less, about 60 centimeters over the same period
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of time. The report estimates a global sea-level
rise of 50 to 140 centimeters by 2100, which
is substantially higher than the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
projection made in 2007.
With climate change, the number and duration
of extreme storm surges and high waves are
expected to escalate, and this, combined with
sea-level rise, increases the risk of flooding, coastal
erosion, and wetland loss, the report says. And
extreme events such as a magnitude 8 or greater
earthquake could raise sea level off Washington
and Oregon much faster than the rates projected.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the states of California, Washington,
and Oregon; National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration; U.S. Geological Survey; and U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers.
FLORIDA’S WATER QUALITY RULE
Hundreds of waterways in Florida are contaminated
by excess nutrients such as nitrogen and
phosphorus, mainly from agricultural runoff.
Florida manages its waterways by using “narrative”
criteria, which use words to describe pollution
limits. In 2009 the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency proposed adopting numeric criteria to
establish limits on the concentrations of water
pollutants in an effort to accelerate and standardize
restoration efforts. The agency produced an
economic analysis of the potential costs associated
with this change.
Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final
Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes
and Flowing Waters in Florida says that while EPA’s
approach to calculating the cost of the rule change
was correct, the agency underestimated both
the number of newly impaired waters and the
mitigation costs for the stormwater, agricultural,
septic system, and government sectors. In
addition, the report finds significant uncertainty in
how costs for municipal and industrial wastewater
sectors were evaluated.
Many discrepancies in estimates by EPA
and other stakeholders were due to different
assumptions about the rule change’s impact on
actions taken over the water quality management
cycle. The report offers a more comprehensive and
explicit approach for analyzing how a rule would
be implemented over time. It also notes that the
costs of the rule change would be small relative to
the total costs required to restore Florida’s nutrient-
impaired waters.
The National Research Council study was funded
by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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THE POTENTIAL OF TREATED
WASTEWATER
Water is scarce in many parts of the world, and
demand is expected to rise as population growth
and climate change place additional stresses
on supplies. In the U.S., many municipalities
have started using another resource — treated
wastewater — to irrigate golf courses and parks or
provide industrial cooling water.
Reusing treated municipal wastewater for
many different uses, including for drinking
water, could significantly increase the nation’s
total available water resources, says Water Reuse:
Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply
Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater. New
analyses suggest that the risk of exposure to
certain microbial and chemical contaminants from
potable wastewater reuse are about the same as,
or in some cases less than, the risk posed by some
existing water supplies.
Water reuse costs vary greatly from location
to location depending on factors such as water
quality requirements and treatment methods.
Water reuse projects are generally more
expensive than most water conservation options
but less expensive than seawater desalination.
Water authorities, however, should consider
other costs and benefits in addition to monetary
expenditures when assessing reuse projects, the
report says.
Water reuse regulations differ by state, and
many are not based on risk-assessment methods.
Adjustments to the federal regulatory framework
could help ensure a high level of public health
protection, provide a consistent minimum level of
protection across the nation, and increase public
confidence in potable and non-potable water reuse.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, National
Science Foundation, National Water Research
Institute, Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, Water Research Foundation, Orange
County Water District, Orange County Sanitation
District, Los Angeles Department of Water and
Power, Irvine Ranch Water District, West Basin Water
District, Inland Empire Utilities Agency, Metropolitan
Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles
County Sanitation Districts, and Monterey Regional
Water Pollution Control Agency.
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RETHINKING GROUNDWATER CLEANUP
Over the last three decades, federal and state
agencies have spent billions of dollars to clean up
contaminated groundwater beneath hazardous
waste sites such as those at Superfund sites and
military installations. U.S. Department of Defense
sites make up approximately 3.4 percent of the
total active remediation sites, with many of these
presenting significant technical challenges and
very high costs. DOD asked the National Research
Council to examine the future of groundwater
remediation efforts.
Meeting cleanup goals at the most
challenging contaminated sites is unlikely for
many decades, says Alternatives for Managing
the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater
Sites. About 10 percent of the 126,000 DOD
sites that require remediation across the U.S.
is considered “complex,” such that restoration
to drinking water standards is unlikely to be
achieved in the next 50 to 100 years due to
technological limitations.
The estimated cost of complete cleanup at
these complex sites ranges from $110 billion to
$127 billion, but the figures for both the number
of sites and costs are likely underestimates, the
report says. The cost estimates do not account for
technical barriers to complete cleanup at complex
sites or the costs of cleanup at future sites where
groundwater may become contaminated.
If cleanup efforts at a site reach a point where
continued spending brings little or no reduction
in risk prior to attaining drinking water standards,
a re-evaluation of the site should occur. Earlier
implementation of this assessment could result
in cost savings, but funding will still be needed
to maintain long-term management at these
complex sites.
The National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Army.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ALGAL
BIOFUELS
As the U.S. strives to meet its energy security
needs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
biofuels have gained attention as possible domestic
alternatives to petroleum-based fuels. Biofuels
made from algae offer potential advantages due
to algae’s ability to grow on non-croplands in
cultivation ponds or vessels of freshwater, salt
water, or wastewater.
Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the
United States says that despite these advantages,
scaling up the production of algal biofuels with
current technologies and algal strains to meet even
5 percent of U.S. transportation fuel needs would
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place unsustainable demands on energy, water,
and nutrients.
Though estimates vary by production method,
large quantities of freshwater and nutrients
such as nitrogen and phosphorus are required
to produce algal biofuels, and the amount of
land with the correct topography, climate, and
proximity to water and nutrients required could
be expensive to purchase. Transporting resources
to cultivation facilities could cause additional
energy consumption, and there are uncertainties in
estimates of how much greenhouse gas is emitted
in the production process.
However, further research and development
could lead to innovations for sustainable
production of algal biofuels. The report proposes
a framework for research that includes assessing
sustainability throughout the supply chain,
evaluating the cumulative impact of resource use
or environmental effects, and performing cost-
benefit analyses.
This National Research Council study was
funded by the U.S. Department of Energy.
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DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY, AND SPACE
Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid
Assessment of Agent Monitoring Strategies for the Blue Grass and Pueblo Chemical Agent Destruction Pilot Plants
Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies
Assuring the U.S. Department of Defense a Strong Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce
Building a Resilient Workforce: Opportunities for the Department of Homeland Security — Workshop Summary
Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments
Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis (page 6)
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Technical Issues for the United States (page 11)
Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards
Determining Core Capabilities in Chemical and Biological Defense Science and Technology
Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative (page 5)
Disposal Options for the Rocket Motors From Nerve Agent Rockets Stored at Blue Grass Army Depot
Earth Science and Applications From Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey
Evaluation of the Updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment for the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kansas (page 8)
Export Control Challenges Associated With Securing the Homeland
Future Uses of the Department of Defense Joint Pathology Center Biorepository
Improving Metrics for the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program
Improving the Decision Making Abilities of Small Unit Leaders
An Interim Report on Assuring DOD a Strong Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce
Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives (page 11)
Managing for High-Quality Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories (page 7)
Materials and Manufacturing Capabilities for Sustaining Defense Systems — Summary of a Workshop
Meeting Critical Laboratory Needs for Animal Agriculture: Examination of Three Options (page 8)
NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space
NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (page 10)
Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities
Remediation of Buried Chemical Warfare Materiel
Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society
Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System
Testing of Body Armor Materials, Phase III
Studies and Projects Completed in 2012
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EDUCATION AND SOCIAL ISSUES
Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population (page 16)
Challenges in Chemistry Graduate Education — A Workshop Summary
Climate Change Education in Formal Settings, K-14 — A Workshop Summary
Collecting Compensation Data From Employers
Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Data in Electronic Health Records — Workshop Summary
Community Colleges in the Evolving STEM Education Landscape — Summary of a Summit
Deterrence and the Death Penalty (page 17)
Discipline-Based Education Research: Understanding and Improving Learning in Undergraduate Science and Engineering
Education for Life and Work: Developing Transferable Knowledge and Skills in the 21st Century (page 15)
From Neurons to Neighborhoods: An Update — Workshop Summary
Improving Adult Literacy Instruction: Developing Reading and Writing
Improving Measurement of Productivity in Higher Education
Infusing Real World Experiences Into Engineering Education
Key National Education Indicators — Workshop Summary
Measuring What We Spend: Toward a New Consumer Expenditure Survey
Monitoring Progress Toward Successful K-12 STEM Education: A Nation Advancing? (page 15)
Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border (page 18)
Perspectives on the Future of the Sociology of Aging
Reforming Juvenile Justice: A Developmental Approach
Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security (page 14)
Research Universities and the Future of America: Ten Breakthrough Actions Vital to Our Nation’s Prosperity and Security — Summary
Small Populations, Large Effects: Improving the Measurement of the Group Quarters Population in the American Community Survey
The Subjective Well-Being Module of the American Time Use Survey: Assessment for Its Continuation
Thinking Evolutionarily: Evolution Education Across the Life Sciences — Summary of a Convocation
Using American Community Survey Data to Expand Access to the School Meals Programs
Workforce Needs in Veterinary Medicine
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Accelerating Progress in Obesity Prevention: Solving the Weight of the Nation (page 20)
Accelerating the Development of New Drugs and Diagnostics: Maximizing the Impact of the Cures Acceleration Network — Workshop Summary
Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals, Vol. 11
Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals, Vol. 12
Alliances for Obesity Prevention: Finding Common Ground — Workshop Summary
Alzheimer’s Diagnostic Guideline Validation: Exploration of Next Steps — Workshop Summary
Analysis of Cancer Risks in Populations Near Nuclear Facilities, Phase 1
Best Care at Lower Cost: The Path to Continuously Learning Health Care in America (page 20)
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Building Public-Private Partnerships in Food and Nutrition — Workshop Summary
The California Institute for Regenerative Medicine: Science, Governance, and the Pursuit of Cures
Child Maltreatment Research, Policy, and Practice for the Next Decade — Workshop Summary
Communications and Technology for Violence Prevention — Workshop Summary
Contagion of Violence — Workshop Summary
Crisis Standards of Care: A Systems Framework for Catastrophic Disaster Response
Digital Data Improvement Priorities for Continuous Learning in Health and Health Care — Workshop Summary
Envisioning a Transformed Clinical Trials Enterprise in the United States: Establishing an Agenda for 2020 — Workshop Summary
Epilepsy Across the Spectrum: Promoting Health and Understanding
Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved Drugs
Evaluation of the Lovell Federal Health Care Center Merger: Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations
Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food — Workshop Summary
Facilitating State Health Exchange Communication Through the Use of Health Literate Practices — Workshop Summary
Fitness Measures and Health Outcomes in Youth
For the Public’s Health: Investing in a Healthier Future
Genome-Based Diagnostics: Clarifying Pathways to Clinical Use — Workshop Summary
Genome-Based Therapeutics: Targeted Drug Discovery and Development — Workshop Summary
Geographic Adjustment in Medicare Payment, Phase II: Implications for Access, Quality, and Efficiency (page 23)
How Can Health Care Organizations Become More Health Literate? — Workshop Summary
How Far Have We Come in Reducing Health Disparities? Progress Since 2000 — Workshop Summary
The Human Microbiome, Diet, and Health — Workshop Summary
Improving Food Safety Through a One Health Approach — Workshop Summary
Informatics Needs and Challenges in Cancer Research — Workshop Summary
An Integrated Framework for Assessing the Value of Community-Based Prevention
International Animal Research Regulations: Impact on Neuroscience Research — Workshop Summary
Living Well With Chronic Illness: A Call for Public Health Action
Measuring Progress in Obesity Prevention — Workshop Report
Medical Care Economic Risk: Measuring Financial Vulnerability From Spending on Medical Care
The Mental Health and Substance Use Workforce for Older Adults: In Whose Hands? (page 22)
Monitoring HIV Care in the United States: A Strategy for Generating National Estimates of HIV Care and Coverage
Monitoring HIV Care in the United States: Indicators and Data Systems
Nutrition and Healthy Aging in the Community — Workshop Summary
Post-Incident Recovery Considerations of the Health Care Service Delivery Infrastructure — Workshop Summary
Potential Health Risks to DOD Firing-Range Personnel From Recurrent Lead Exposure
Primary Care and Public Health: Exploring Integration to Improve Population Health
Public Engagement on Facilitating Access to Antiviral Medications and Information in an Influenza Pandemic — Workshop Series Summary
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Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework, Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint
Reducing Tobacco-Related Cancer Incidence and Mortality — Workshop Summary
Research Methods to Assess Dietary Intake and Program Participation in Child Day Care: Application to the Child and Adult Care Food Program — Workshop Summary
The Role of Obesity in Cancer Survival and Recurrence — Workshop Summary
The Role of Telehealth in an Evolving Health Care Environment — Workshop Summary
Safe and Effective Medicines for Children: Pediatric Studies Conducted Under the Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Act and the Pediatric Research Equity Act
Substance Use Disorders in the U.S. Armed Forces (page 22)
Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation
Tracking Radiation Exposure From Medical Diagnostic Procedures — Workshop Report
Treatment for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations: Initial Assessment (page 21)
Twenty-first Interim Report of the Committee on Acute Exposure Guideline Levels, Part A
Twenty-first Interim Report of the Committee on Acute Exposure Guideline Levels, Part B
INDUSTRY, COMMERCE, AND TECHNOLOGY
Best Practices in Assessment of Research and Development Organizations
Best Practices in Assessment of Research and Development Organizations — Summary of a Workshop
Big Data — A Workshop Report
Building Hawaii’s Innovation Economy — Summary of a Symposium
Building the Arkansas Innovation Economy — Summary of a Symposium
Clustering for 21st Century Prosperity — Summary of a Symposium
Computing Research for Sustainability
Continuing Innovation in Information Technology
Effective Tracking of Building Energy Use: Improving the Commercial Buildings and Residential Energy Consumption Surveys
From Science to Business: Preparing Female Scientists and Engineers for Successful Transitions Into Entrepreneurship — Summary of a Workshop
Interim Report — Status of the Study “An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy”
Interim Report for the Triennial Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative, Phase II
Making Things: 21st Century Manufacturing and Design — Summary of a Forum
Making Value: Integrating Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation to Thrive in the Changing Global Economy
Nutrient Requirements of Swine, 11th Revised Edition
Optics and Photonics: Essential Technologies for Our Nation
Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Developing Regional Innovation Environments — A Workshop Summary
Summary of a Workshop on the Future of Antennas
Sustainability Considerations for Procurement Tools and Capabilities — Summary of a Workshop
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Aging in Asia: Findings From New and Emerging Data Initiatives
Barriers to Integrating Crisis Standards of Care Principles Into International Disaster Response Plans — Workshop Summary
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Blueprint for the Future: Framing the Issues of Women in Science in a Global Context — Summary of a Workshop
The Case for International Sharing of Scientific Data: A Focus on Developing Countries — Proceedings of a Symposium
The Continuing Epidemiological Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa — A Workshop Summary
Country-Level Decision Making for Control of Chronic Diseases — Workshop Summary
Developing and Strengthening the Global Supply Chain for Second-Line Drugs for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis — Workshop Summary
Ensuring Safe Foods and Medical Products Through Stronger Regulatory Systems Abroad
Facing the Reality of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in India: Challenges and Potential Solutions — Summary of a Joint Workshop by the Institute of Medicine, the Indian National Science Academy, and the Indian Council of Medical Research
For Attribution: Developing Data Attribution and Citation Practices and Standards — Summary of an International Workshop
Global Navigation Satellite Systems — Report of a Joint Workshop of the National Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Engineering
Human Performance Modification: Review of Worldwide Research With a View to the Future
International Science in the National Interest at the U.S. Geological Survey
Lessons and Legacies of the International Polar Year 2007-2008
Meeting Global Challenges: U.S.-German Innovation Policy — Summary of a Symposium
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security
Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities for Converting U.S. and Russian Research Reactors — A Workshop Report
Rising to the Challenge: U.S. Innovation Policy for the Global Economy
A Sustainability Challenge: Food Security for All — Report of Two Workshops
U.S. and International Perspectives on Global Science Policy and Science Diplomacy — Report of a Workshop
NATURAL RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Alternatives for Managing the Nation’s Complex Contaminated Groundwater Sites (page 29)
Corps of Engineers Water Resources Infrastructure: Deterioration, Investment, or Divestment?
Dam and Levee Safety and Community Resilience: A Vision for Future Practice
Ecosystem Services: Charting a Path to Sustainability
The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate — A Workshop Report
Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security
Induced Seismicity Potential in Energy Technologies
A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
National Summit on Strategies to Manage Herbicide-Resistant Weeds — Proceedings of a Symposium
Preparing for the Third Decade (Cycle 3) of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program
Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Fourth Biennial Review, 2012
Proliferation Risk in Nuclear Fuel Cycles — Workshop Summary
Review of the EPA’s Economic Analysis of Final Water Quality Standards for Nutrients for Lakes and Flowing Waters in Florida (page 27)
A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Strategic Plan
The Role of the Chemical Sciences in Finding Alternatives to Critical Resources — A Workshop Summary
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Science for Environmental Protection: The Road Ahead
Scientific Review of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement: Drakes Bay Oyster Company Special Use Permit
Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future (page 26)
Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies
Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels in the United States (page 29)
Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta (page 26)
Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and Meeting Users’ Needs
The Use and Storage of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) at Bayer CropScience
Water Reuse: Potential for Expanding the Nation’s Water Supply Through Reuse of Municipal Wastewater (page 28)
Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None (page 5)
THE SCIENTIFIC ENTERPRISE
Advancing Strategic Science: A Spatial Data Infrastructure Roadmap for the U.S. Geological Survey
Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification
Assuring a Future U.S.-Based Nuclear and Radiochemistry Expertise
Challenges and Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences
Challenges in Characterizing Small Particles: Exploring Particles From the Nano- to Microscales — A Workshop Summary
Evolution of Translational Omics: Lessons Learned and the Path Forward
Exposure Science in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy
Fueling Innovation and Discovery: The Mathematical Sciences in the 21st Century
The Future of Scientific Knowledge Discovery in Open Networked Environments — Summary of a Workshop
Improving Measures of Science, Technology, and Innovation — Interim Report
Intelligent Human-Machine Collaboration — Summary of a Workshop
Nuclear Physics: Exploring the Heart of Matter
Research Frontiers in Bioinspired Energy: Molecular-Level Learning From Natural Systems — A Workshop
A Research Strategy for Environmental, Health, and Safety Aspects of Engineered Nanomaterials
A Review of the Manufacturing-Related Programs at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, Fiscal Year 2012
Sex-Specific Reporting of Scientific Research — A Workshop Summary
The Social Biology of Microbial Communities — Workshop Summary
Transforming Glycoscience: A Roadmap for the Future
Using Data Sharing to Improve Coordination in Peacebuilding — Report of a Workshop by the National Academy of Engineering and the United States Institute of Peace Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding
Using Science as Evidence in Public Policy
TRANSPORTATION
AASHTO [American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials] T 209: Effect of Agitation Equipment Type on Theoretical Maximum Specific Gravity Values
Achieving Airport-Compatible Land Uses and Minimizing Hazardous Obstructions in Navigable Airspace
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Addressing Uncertainty About Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making
Airport Apron Management and Control Programs
Airport Climate Adaptation and Resilience
Airport Ground Support Equipment (GSE): Emission Reduction Strategies, Inventory, and Tutorial (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Airport Passenger Conveyance Systems Planning Guidebook (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Airport-to-Airport Mutual Aid Programs
Alternative Fuels as a Means to Reduce PM2.5 Emissions at Airports
Analysis of Existing Data: Prospective Views on Methodological Paradigms
Analysis of Managed Lanes on Freeway Facilities
Appendices to NCHRP [National Cooperative Highway Research Program] Report 693
Application of Enterprise Risk Management at Airports (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Application of LADAR [Light Detection and Ranging] in the Analysis of Aggregate Characteristics
Assessing and Comparing Environmental Performance of Major Transit Investments
Assessing Highway Tolling and Pricing Options and Impacts: Vol. 1, Decision-Making Framework; and Vol. 2, Travel Demand Forecasting Tools
Assessing the Long-Term Performance of Mechanically Stabilized Earth Walls
Asset and Infrastructure Management for Airports — Primer and Guidebook
Attracting, Recruiting, and Retaining Skilled Staff for Transportation System Operations and Management
Audience Measurement for Transit Advertising
Automated Enforcement for Speeding and Red Light Running
Building the U.S. Battery Industry for Electric Drive Vehicles — Summary of a Symposium
Calibration of Rutting Models for Structural and Mix Design
Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program: A Status Report, 2012
Communicating the Value of Preservation
A Compendium of Best Practices and Lessons Learned for Improving Local Community Recovery From Disastrous Hazardous Materials Transportation Incidents
Competition Requirements of the Design/Build, Construction Manager at Risk, and Public-Private Partnership Contracts: Seven Case Studies
Compilation of State Airport Authorizing Legislation
Considering and Evaluating Airport Privatization (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Construction 2012
Cost-Effective and Sustainable Road Slope Stabilization and Erosion Control
Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience: Emergency Evacuation 2011
Current Hazardous Materials Transportation Research and Future Needs
Data Needs for Assessing Rural Transit Needs, Benefits, and Levels of Service
Dedicated Revenue Mechanisms for Freight Transportation Investment
Design and Management of Historic Roads
Design Guidance for Freeway Mainline Ramp Terminals
Design Guidance for High-Speed to Low-Speed Transition Zones for Rural Highways
Developing, Enhancing, and Sustaining Tribal Transit Services: A Guidebook
Developing, Enhancing, and Sustaining Tribal Transit Services: Final Research Report
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Development of Analysis Methods Using Recent Data
Distracted Driving Countermeasures for Commercial Vehicles
Driver Selection Tests and Measurement
An Ecological Approach to Integrating Conservation and Highway Planning, Vol. 2
Effective Experiment Design and Data Analysis in Transportation Research
Elevator and Escalator Maintenance and Safety Practices
Elimination or Reduction of Baggage Recheck for Arriving International Passengers
Energy and Global Climate Change 2011
Energy and Global Climate Change 2012
Engineering Economic Analysis Practices for Highway Investment
Environment 2012
Estimating Life Expectancies of Highway Assets: Vol. 1, Guidebook; and Vol. 2, Final Report
Estimating the Effects of Pavement Condition on Vehicle Operating Costs
Evaluating Airfield Capacity
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Offshore Safety and Environmental Management Systems
Evaluation of Bridge Scour Research
Evaluation of the Use of Electronic Shipping Papers for Hazardous Materials Shipments
Expedited Planning and Environmental Review of Highway Projects
Expedited Procurement Procedures for Emergency Construction Services
Expediting Aircraft Recovery at Airports
Exploring Airport Employee Commute and Parking Strategies
Extent of Highway Capacity Manual Use in Planning
Fatigue Evaluation of Steel Bridges
Fatigue Loading and Design Methodology for High-Mast Lighting Towers
Financing Surface Transportation in the United States: Forging a Sustainable Future — Now! Summary of the Fourth International Conference
Freight Systems 2012
Freight Systems 2012: Modeling and Logistics
Geology and Properties of Earth Materials 2012
Geomaterials 2012
Geotechnical Information Practices in Design-Build Projects
Going the Distance Together: A Citizen’s Guide to Context Sensitive Solutions for Better Transportation
Graduate Research Award Program on Public Sector Aviation Issues
Guidance for Quantifying the Contribution of Airport Emissions to Local Air Quality (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidance for the Selection, Use, and Maintenance of Cable Barrier Systems
A Guide for Implementing Bus on Shoulder (BOS) Systems
Guide for Managing NEPA [National Environmental Policy Act]: Related and Other Risks in Project Delivery
Guidebook for Airport Irregular Operations (IROPS) Contingency Planning
Guidebook for Assessing Evolving International Container Chassis Supply Models
Guidebook for Developing General Aviation Airport Business Plans (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidebook for Evaluating Fuel Purchasing Strategies for Public Transit Agencies
Guidebook for Evaluating Terminal Renewal Versus Replacement Options
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Guidebook for Implementing Intelligent Transportation Systems Elements to Improve Airport Traveler Access Information (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidebook for Incorporating Sustainability Into Traditional Airport Projects (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidebook for Measuring Performance of Automated People Mover Systems at Airports
A Guidebook for Nighttime Construction: Impacts on Safety, Quality, and Productivity
Guidebook for Selecting Methods to Monitor Airport and Aircraft Deicing Materials, plus Fact Sheets: On-Site Monitoring Methods
Guidebook for Understanding Urban Goods Movement (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidelines for Analysis Methods and Construction Engineering of Curved and Skewed Steel Girder Bridges
Guidelines for Evaluating and Selecting Modifications to Existing Roadway Drainage Infrastructure to Improve Water Quality in Ultra-Urban Areas (with supplemental on CD-ROM)
Guidelines for Ferry Transportation Services
Guidelines for Integrating Alternative Jet Fuel Into the Airport Setting
Guidelines for Project Selection and Materials Sampling, Conditioning, and Testing in WMA [Warm Mix Asphalt] Research Studies
Guidelines for Providing Access to Public Transportation Stations (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Guidelines for Timing Yellow and All-Red Intervals at Signalized Intersections
Handbook for Evaluating Emissions and Costs of APUs [Auxiliary Power Units] and Alternative Systems
Handbook on Applying Environmental Benchmarking in Freight Transportation
High-Performance/High-Strength Lightweight Concrete for Bridge Girders and Decks
Highway and Traffic Safety: Vehicles, Behavior, and Roundabouts
Highway Capacity and Quality of Service 2011
Highway Capacity and Quality of Service 2012
Highway Design 2011
Highway Safety 2012: Traffic Law Enforcement, Alcohol, Occupant Protection, Motorcycles, and Trucks
Highway Safety Manual Training Materials (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Human Factors Guidelines for Road Systems, Second Edition
Hydraulic Loss Coefficients for Culverts
Identification of Utility Conflicts and Solutions
Implementation and Outcomes of Fare-Free Transit Systems
Improving ADA [Americans With Disabilities Act] Paratransit Demand Estimation: Regional Modeling (with supporting material on CD-ROM)
Improving Bus Transit Safety Through Rewards and Discipline
An Index and Digest of Decisions: Compilation of Airport Law Resources (CD-ROM)
Information Technology Systems at Airports: A Primer
Institutional Architectures to Improve Systems Operations and Management
Integration of Analysis Methods and Development of Analysis Plan
Intelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2011
Interactions Between Transportation Capacity, Economic Systems, and Land Use
Issues With Use of Airfield LED [Light Emitting Diode] Light Fixtures
Legal Aspects of Airport Programs: An Update
Legal Issues Involving Surety for Public Transportation Projects
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Lessons Learned From Airport Safety Management Systems Pilot Studies
Linking Community Visioning and Highway Capacity Planning
Local and State Partnerships With Taxicab Companies
Local Policies and Practices That Support Safe Pedestrian Environments
Long-Term Performance of Polymer Concrete for Bridge Decks
Maintenance Services and Surface Weather 2011
Maintenance Services and Surface Weather 2012
Managing Aerial Firefighting Activities on Airports
Marine Highway Transport of Toxic Inhalation Hazard Materials
Marine Transportation, Marine Environment, and Port Terminal Operations 2012
Measurement of Gaseous HAP [Hazardous Air Pollutant] Emissions From Idling Aircraft as a Function of Engine and Ambient Conditions
Methodologies to Estimate the Economic Impacts of Disruptions to the Goods Movement System
Methodology for Determining the Economic Development Impacts of Transit Projects
A Model for Identifying and Evaluating the Historic Significance of Post-World War II Housing
Multimodal Freight Transportation Within the Great Lakes-Saint Lawrence Basin
NCHRP at 50 Years
Network Modeling 2011
Network Modeling 2012, Vol. 1
Network Modeling 2012, Vol. 2
Off-Board Fare Payment Using Proof-of-Payment Verification
Operation of Light Rail Transit Through Ungated Crossings at Speeds Over 35 MPH
Operator Drug- and Alcohol-Testing Across Modes
Optimization of Tack Coat for HMA [Hot Mix Asphalt] Placement
Pavement Management 2011, Vol. 1
Pedestrians 2011
Performance-Based Highway Maintenance and Operations Management
Performance-Based Track Geometry, Phase 1
Planning 2011, Vol. 2
Practical Approaches for Involving Traditionally Underserved Populations in Transportation Decisionmaking
Practices and Procedures for Site-Specific Evaluations of Earthquake Ground Motions
Practices for Wayside Rail Transit Worker Protection
Practices to Manage Traffic Sign Retroreflectivity
Preserving and Protecting Freight Infrastructure and Routes (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Procurement of Airport Development and Planning Contracts
A Proposed Technology Evaluation Program for Warm Mix Asphalt
Public-Sector Aviation: Graduate Research Award Papers, 2010-2011
Railways 2011, Including 2011 Thomas B. Deen Distinguished Lecture
The Ramifications of Post-Kelo Legislation on State Transportation Projects
Recent Roadway Geometric Design Research for Improved Safety and Operations
Ridesharing as a Complement to Transit
Role of Human Factors in Preventing Cargo Tank Truck Rollovers
Rural Public Transportation Strategies for Responding to the Livable and Sustainable Communities Initiative
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Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011, Vol. 2
Safety Management in Small Motor Carriers
The Safety Promise and Challenge of Automotive Electronics: Insights From Unintended Acceleration (page 9)
Scour at Bridge Foundations on Rock
Seismic Design of Geosynthetic-Reinforced Soil Bridge Abutments With Modular Block Facing
Selected State DOT [Department of Transportation] Cost-Reduction Initiatives for the Administration of State Public Transportation Programs
Significant Findings From Full-Scale Accelerate Pavement Testing
State and Federal Regulations That May Affect Initiatives to Reduce Airports’ GHG [Greenhouse Gas] Emissions
State DOT [Department of Transportation] Financial Auditing Requirements for Public Transportation Assistance Programs
State of Good Repair: Prioritizing the Rehabilitation and Replacement of Existing Capital Assets and Evaluating the Implications for Transit
Structural Design of Culvert Joints
Structures 2011
Subsurface Utility Engineering Information Management for Airports
Summary of Research Findings: Assessing and Comparing Environmental Performance of Major Transit Investments
The Superpave Mix Design System: Anatomy of a Research Program
Survey of State Funding for Public Transportation: Ways to Improve It
Sustainable Pavement Maintenance Practices
Sustainable Practices, Performance Measures, and Management
A Toolkit for Reporting Rural and Specialized Transit Data: Making Transit Count
Tort Liability Defense Practices for Design Flexibility
Track Design Handbook for Light Rail Transit, Second Edition
Traffic Control Devices, Visibility, and Highway-Rail Grade Crossings 2012
Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2011
Traffic Signal Systems 2011
Training of Traffic Incident Responders
Transforming Public Transportation Institutional and Business Models
Transit 2011, Vol. 1
Transit 2012, Vol. 1, Including 2012 Thomas B. Deen Distinguished Lecture
Transit 2012, Vol. 2
Transit Agency Intergovernmental Agreements: Common Issues and Solutions (with supplemental material on CD-ROM)
Transit Labor 13(c) Employee Protection Digest on CD-ROM
Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques
Travel Forecasting 2011, Vol. 1
Travel Forecasting 2011, Vol. 2
Travel Survey Methods, Freight Data Systems, and Asset Management 2012
Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes, Chapter 16: Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities
Urban and Traffic Data Systems
Use of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) by State Departments of Transportation and Metropolitan Planning Organizations
Use of Towbarless Tractors at Airports — Best Practices
Uses of Social Media in Public Transportation
Waterproofing Membranes for Concrete Bridge Decks
Winter Design-Storm Factor Determination for Airports
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Public Law
113-6 Consolidated and Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2013
Conduct a review of proposed methodologies for the National Children’s Study (NCS) Main Study, including whether such methodologies are likely to produce scientifically sound results that can be generalized to the United States population and appropriate sub-populations
112-239 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013
Review the specialized degree-granting graduate programs of the Department of Defense in science, tech-nology, engineering, mathematics, and management
Assess and provide an analysis and recommendations on the state of the Department of Veterans Affairs’ mental health services, including the department’s development and implementation of measures to assess its mental health care services and its staffing guidelines
Conduct a study of peer review and design competition related to nuclear weapons
Conduct a study of the state of molybdenum-99 production and utilization
112-141 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21)
Review a report which assesses the status of vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure dedicated short-range communications technology and applications, analyzes the known and potential gaps, and defines a recommended implementation path
Conduct a study exploring methods for understanding graduated risk behind levees and the associated land development, insurance, and risk communication dimensions
In consultation with the Comptroller General of the United States, conduct an economic analysis of the costs and benefits to the federal government of a flood insurance program with full risk-based premiums, combined with means-tested federal assistance to aid individuals who cannot afford coverage, through an insurance voucher program
Upon issuance of the rule establishing the Consumer Option for an Alternative System to Allocate Losses (COASTAL) Formula and each time it is modified, evaluate the expected financial impact on the national
Current Congressionally Authorized Activities*
*While all projects listed have been designated in legislation, a few lack funding and final contracts.
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flood insurance program of the use of the formula, the validity of the scientific assumptions upon which it is based, and whether the formula can achieve a degree of accuracy of not less than 90 percent in allocating flood losses for indeterminate losses
112-95 FAA Reauthorization and Reform Act of 2011
Review the enterprise architecture for the NextGen
Study the assumptions and methods used by the Federal Aviation Administration to estimate staffing needs for FAA systems specialists to ensure proper maintenance and certification of the national airspace system
Study the standards used by the FAA to estimate staffing needs for FAA air traffic controllers to ensure the safe operation of the national airspace system in the most cost-effective manner
Review the research plan developed by the FAA administrator on the methods and procedures to improve both confidence in and the timeliness of certification of new technologies for their introduction into the national airspace system
Conduct a study, under the Airport Cooperative Research Program, on airport sustainability practices
112-81 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012
Within four years of the enactment of the SBIR/STTR Reauthorization Act of 2011, and every four years there-after, conduct a study of how the STTR program has stimulated technological innovation and technology transfer, estimate the number of jobs created by the SBIR and STTR programs, and make recommendations with respect to these issues
112-74 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012
Conduct a study to identify the market barriers slowing the purchase of electric vehicles and hindering the deployment of supporting infrastructure
Study the lessons learned from the Fukushima nuclear disaster
Conduct up to three reviews of the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments that the Environ-mental Protection Agency seeks to make final, including a study of the cancer and noncancer hazards from oral exposure to inorganic arsenic
Form a work group to review, evaluate, and identify issues related to the Cures Acceleration Network (CAN) authority and provide a report for the CAN Board to help it identify ways to accelerate and expand the num-ber of cures
Evaluate the Clinical and Translational Science Awards program and recommend whether changes to the cur-rent mission are needed
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Conduct a scientific peer review of the 12th Report on Carcinogens determinations related to formaldehyde and styrene
111-358 America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010
Conduct a study on the scientific work force in the areas of oceanic and atmospheric research and development
Conduct a study of all federal agencies that administer an Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) or a program similar to EPSCoR regarding its effectiveness
Initiate a study to evaluate, develop, or improve impact-on-society metrics
Within three years, evaluate the regional innovation program established by this Act
111-314 National and Commercial Space Programs
Periodically over the next decade, conduct independent assessments, also known as decadal surveys, taking stock of the status and opportunities for earth and space science discipline fields and aeronautics research and recommending priorities for research and programmatic areas
At five-year intervals, review and assess the performance of each division in the science directorate of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
111-267 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2010
Beginning in FY2012, conduct a review of the goals, core capabilities, and direction of human space flight, using the goals set forth in the National Aeronautics and Space Act of 1958, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2005, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Autho-rization Act of 2008, the goals set forth in this Act, and those set forth in any existing statement of space policy issued by the president
111-212 Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2010
Conduct a study of the long-term ecosystem service impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil discharge
111-163 Caregivers and Veterans Omnibus Health Services Act of 2010
Conduct an expanded study on the health impact of Project Shipboard Hazard and Defense (Project SHAD)
111-148 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
Review research on the selection of a set of key national indicators, determine how to implement and estab-lish a key national indicator system, and report annually to the Commission on Key National Indicators any findings and recommendations
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111-117 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010
Conduct a study of the feasibility of commercially provided earth science data
111-85 Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2010
Conduct a study to address the national security and extended deterrence value of the B61 bomb for both strategic and tactical purposes in light of nuclear terrorism risks and military threats
111-84 National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2010
Study the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder
Conduct a review of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories
111-8 Omnibus Appropriations Act, 2009
Conduct an inventory of the energy development potential on all lands currently managed by the Depart-ment of Energy
Study the position of the United States in flexible electronics, its applications, and the steps that must be undertaken for a national initiative
Conduct a third-party review of the federal nanotechnology research program
110-422 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2008
Conduct a study to determine the most appropriate governance structure for U.S. earth observations programs
Study the impacts of space weather on the current and future United States aviation industry, and in particu-lar examine the risks for Over-The-Pole (OTP) and Ultra-Long-Range (ULR) operations
On a periodic basis, perform independent assessments — also known as decadal surveys — to take stock of the status and opportunities for the fields of earth and space science and aeronautics and to recommend priorities for research and programmatic areas over the next decade
110-389 Veterans’ Benefits Improvement Act of 2008
Before March 31, 2012, report to Congress assessing the feasibility and advisability of conducting additional research after Sept. 30, 2012, on the assets transferred to the Institute of Medicine’s Medical Follow-Up Agency from the Air Force Health Study (see Public Law 109-364 for background on this request)
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110-343 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
Review the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to identify the types of and specific tax provisions that have the largest effects on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and to estimate the magnitude of those effects
110-315 Higher Education Opportunity Act
Evaluate the quality of distance education programs, as compared to campus-based education programs, at institutions of higher education
Identify any race, ethnicity, or gender bias in the content and construction of standardized tests that are used for admission to institutions of higher education
Study the quality of teacher education programs to determine if teachers are adequately prepared to meet the needs of students with reading and language processing disabilities, including dyslexia
Identify constraints encountered by schools of nursing in admitting and graduating the number of registered nurses necessary to ensure patient safety and meet the need for quality assurance in the provision of health care; and develop recommendations to alleviate these constraints
110-161 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008
Establish an independent project review of NASA’s major programs
Support the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis’ Global Energy Assessment
Recommend innovative approaches to educate and train scientists and users of Earth observations and ap-plications and to assist in training students
110-140 Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Evaluate vehicle fuel economy standards, updating the initial report every five years through 2025
Assess the impact of the requirements described in Section 211(o) of the Clean Air Act on each industry relat-ing to the production of feed grains, livestock, food, forest products, and energy
Five years after enactment of this Act, assess the Department of Energy’s performance in carrying out Section 641, titled the “United States Energy Storage Competitiveness Act of 2007”
Review and provide oversight for the Carbon Capture and Sequestration Research, Development, and Dem-onstration Programs under Section 963 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and as amended by Sections 702 and 703 of this Act
Conduct a study that defines an interdisciplinary program on the undergraduate and graduate levels in geology, engineering, hydrology, environmental science, and related disciplines that will support the nation’s capability to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from anthropogenic sources, and develop guidelines for proposals from colleges and universities with substantial capabilities in the required disciplines
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110-114 Water Resources Development Act of 2007
Conduct a peer review for those project studies subject to a review as described in subsection (a), Section 2034, of this Act, which may include the economic and environmental assumptions and projections, project evaluation data, economic, environmental, and engineering analyses, formulation of alternative plans, meth-ods for integrating risk and uncertainty, models used in evaluation of economic or environmental impacts of proposed projects, and any biological opinions of the project study
110-69 America Creating Opportunities to Meaningfully Promote Excellence in Technology, Education, and Science (America COMPETES) Act
Study how the federal government should support, through research, education, and training, the emerging management and learning discipline known as “service science”
Not later than five years and 10 years after enactment of this Act, assess the performance of the science, engineering, and mathematics education programs of the Department of Energy
Four years into its operation, conduct an evaluation of how well the Advanced Research Projects Agency — Energy (ARPA-E) is achieving its goals and mission
Identify promising practices for improving teaching and student achievement in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics in kindergarten through grade 12 and examine and synthesize the scientific evidence pertaining to the improvement of teaching and learning in these fields
Conduct a study of the mechanisms and supports needed for an institution of higher education or nonprofit organization to develop and maintain a program to provide free access to online educational content as part of a degree program, especially in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, or foreign languages, without using federal funds, including funds provided under title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (20 U.S.C. 1070 et seq.)
109-364 John Warner National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2007
Receive custodianship of the Air Force Health Study assets, maintain the data and specimens, and make them available for additional studies
109-347 Security and Accountability for Every (SAFE) Port Act of 2006
Conduct a study and prepare a report on disaster area health and environmental protection and monitoring
109-155 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2005
At five-year intervals, review and assess the performance of each division in the science directorate of NASA
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109-59 Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)
Recommend a research agenda for a national cooperative freight transportation research program and to support and carry out administrative and management activities related to its governance
Carry out the nine research projects called for in the National Academies’ Transportation Research Board 2005 Special Report 283 titled “Cooperative Research for Hazardous Materials Transportation: Defining the Need, Converging on Solutions”
109-58 Energy Policy Act of 2005
Every four years, review the Department of Energy’s R&D program on technologies relating to the produc-tion, purification, distribution, storage, and use of hydrogen energy, fuel cells, and related infrastructure outlined in Section 805 of this Act
Every four years, review the demonstration projects outlined in Section 808 and consistent with “Title VIII — Hydrogen” of this Act, and the Department of Energy’s determination of the maturity, cost-effectiveness, and environmental impacts of technologies supporting each project
Conduct periodic reviews of the Next-Generation Lighting Initiative
Review the research plan for the systems biology program
Conduct periodic reviews and assessments of the Department of Energy’s research, development, demon-stration, and commercial application programs in energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear energy, and fossil energy; the measurable cost and performance goals for the programs as established under Section 902 of this Act; and the progress on meeting these goals
Determine the effect that electrical contaminants (such as tin whiskers) may have on the reliability of energy production systems, including nuclear energy
Study the potential of developing wind, solar, and ocean energy resources on federal land and the outer con-tinental shelf; assess any federal law relating to their development; and recommend statutory and regulatory mechanisms for developing them
108-176 Vision 100 — Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act
Provide staff support to the Airport Cooperative Research Program Governing Board and carry out projects proposed by the board that the secretary of transportation considers appropriate
108-153 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act
Conduct a triennial evaluation of the National Nanotechnology Program
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106-541 Water Resources Development Act of 2000
Biennial review of the progress of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
105-368 Veterans Programs Enhancement Act of 1998
Review and evaluate the available scientific evidence regarding associations between illness and service in the Persian Gulf War
Develop a curriculum for the care and treatment of Persian Gulf War veterans who have ill-defined or undiag-nosed illnesses and periodically review and provide recommendations regarding research plans and research strategies
105-277 Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1999
Study on the available scientific evidence regarding associations between illnesses and exposure to toxic agents, environmental or wartime hazards, or preventive medicines or vaccines associated with Gulf War service
102-4 Agent Orange Act of 1991
Periodic review, summary, and assessment of the scientific evidence, and recommendation for further sci-entific studies concerning the association between exposure to herbicide and each disease suspected to be associated with such exposure (reports to be submitted at least biennially for a period of up to 10 years)
93-348 National Research Service Award Act of 1974
Conduct a continuing study to establish the nation’s overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel and assess current training programs
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U.S. Government Agencies(Grants and Contracts)
Department of Agriculture $ 1,502,212Department of Commerce 11,958,299Department of Defense Defense Threat Reduction Agency 1,914,515 Department of Defense 7,486,016 Department of the Air Force 9,772,015 Department of the Army 10,474,067 Department of the Navy 12,127,696Department of Education 933,022Department of Energy 10,025,026Department of Health and Human Services 25,486,450Department of Homeland Security 2,892,174Department of the Interior 2,927,278Department of Justice 1,778,827Department of Labor 977,789Department of State 6,156,233Department of Transportation 104,412,015Department of the Treasury 1,293,176Department of Veterans Affairs 4,262,827Environmental Protection Agency 4,786,991Executive Office of the President 1,116,072Government Accountability Office 71,453General Services Administration 314,366Institute of Museum and Library Services 207,968Marine Mammal Commission 82,857National Aeronautics and Space Administration 5,589,162National Geospatial Intelligence Agency 227,784National Science Foundation 16,114,505National Security Agency 103,018National Transportation Safety Board 15,033Nuclear Regulatory Commission 919,503Office of the Director of National Intelligence 2,533Social Security Administration 291,719U.S. Agency for International Development 4,317,478U.S. Arctic Research Commission 32,734U.S. Chemical Safety Board 158,351
TOTAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES $ 250,731,164
Private and Nonfederal Sources
Grants and Contracts $ 39,158,011Other Contributions 5,713,580
TOTAL PRIVATE AND NONFEDERAL SOURCES $ 44,871,591
[Note: Complete audited information was unavailable at press time.]
Department of Health and Human Services25,486,450
Department of Transportation104,412,015
National Science Foundation16,114,505
Department of the Navy12,127,696
Department of Commerce11,958,299
Department of the Army10,474,067
All Other Federal Sources70,158,132
Revenue Applied to 2012
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About the National Academies
The U.S. government’s need for an independent adviser on science and technology matters became evident by the height of the Civil War. On March 3, 1863, President Lincoln approved the congressional charter which created that adviser, the National Academy of Sciences.
The private, nonprofit Academy has counseled the federal government in wartime and peacetime ever since. As science and technology issues have grown in complexity and scope, so too has the Academy. Four separate but related entities continue this work.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (NAS) is a society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engi-neering research, and dedicated to the use of science and technology for the public welfare. In addition to its role as adviser to the federal government, the Academy sponsors symposia, monitors human rights abuses against scientists worldwide, promotes the public understanding of science, and publishes a research journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. RALPH J. CICERONE, President BRUCE DARLING, Executive Officer JAMES HINCHMAN, Deputy Executive Officer
THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING (NAE) is an association of outstanding engineers from industry and aca-demia. Established in 1964 under NAS’ charter, NAE is autonomous in its administration and selection of its members. It shares with NAS responsibility for advising the federal government. It also conducts studies of policy issues in engineer-ing and technology, encourages education and research, and grants awards to distinguished engineers. CHARLES M. VEST, President LANCE DAVIS, Executive Officer
THE INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE (IOM) is an association of eminent health care professionals and experts in related fields. Established by NAS in 1970, IOM examines policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. It shares responsibilities with NAS and NAE for advising the federal government. It also undertakes studies on its own initiative, addressing issues of health care, health sciences, and education. HARVEY V. FINEBERG, President JUDITH SALERNO, Leonard D. Schaeffer Executive Officer
THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, founded in 1916, has become the principal administrative arm of NAS, NAE, and IOM. The Council’s staff convenes study committees for the NAS and NAE, and most of the studies appear under the Council’s name. The IOM convenes its own committees, following the same quality assurance procedures used by the Council.
In addition to conducting studies, the National Research Council brings together scientists, engineers, and educa-tors to set priorities and encourage self-examination and improvement within their professions. It also works to improve science and math education at all levels, from kindergarten through doctoral programs. RALPH J. CICERONE, Chair CHARLES M. VEST, Vice Chair BRUCE DARLING, Executive Officer JAMES HINCHMAN, Deputy Executive Officer
Photographs
Front cover: (clockwise from upper left) Photo courtesy NASA/ESA/R. O’Connell (University of Virginia)/F. Paresce (National Institute for Astrophysics, Bologna, Italy)/E. Young (Universities Space Research Association/Ames Research Center)/WFC3 Science Oversight Committee/Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA); photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; ©Hemera/Thinkstock; Trident Laser Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, photo by LeRoy Sanchez/LANL; U.S. Army photo by Air Force Staff Sgt. Aaron D. Allmon II
Page 1: (left to right) Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences and chair of the National Research Council; Charles M. Vest, president of the National Academy of Engineering and vice chair of the National Research Council; Harvey V. Fineberg, president of the Institute of Medicine
Page 2: (from top) ©Chad Baker/Photodisc/Thinkstock; ©George Doyle/Stockbyte/Thinkstock; ©Goodshoot/ThinkstockPage 3: (from top) ©Hemera/Thinkstock; aerial over California’s Bay-Delta region, photo courtesy California Department of
Water Resources; historic National Academy of Sciences building in Washington, D.C., photo by Maxwell MacKenziePage 4: (clockwise from top) In preparation for the 2012 hurricane season, FEMA’s Logistics Management Directorate leads
a whole community resource support planning session, photo by Brittany Trotter/FEMA; photo courtesy NASA/ESA/Jesús Maíz Apellániz (Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Spain); residents cope with heavier than usual rains during the 2011 monsoon season in Thailand, U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Robert J. Maurer; Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s large accelerator for mass spectrometry, photo by Jacqueline McBride/LLNL
Pages 6-7: ©Ocean/Corbis; NOAA photo of 2012’s devastating Hurricane Sandy; researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, photo courtesy LLNL
Pages 8-9: Sandia National Laboratories’ Annular Core Research Reactor, photo by Randy Montoya/SNL; infrared image of cow infected with foot-and-mouth disease, photo by Craig Packer/USDA Agricultural Research Service; ©Hemera/Thinkstock
Pages 10-11: Photo courtesy NASA/ESA/Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration; infrasound station in Qaanaaq, Greenland that is part of a high-tech global network that monitors for nuclear tests, photo by Owen Kilgour/Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization; a ground-based missile interceptor being lowered into its silo at the Missile Defense Complex at Fort Greely, Alaska, U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Jack W. Carlson III
Page 13: (clockwise from top) ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; ©Dick Luria/Photodisc/Thinkstock; ©Creatas Images/Thinkstock; ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock
Pages 14-15: ©Fancy/Hero Images/Corbis; ©Creatas/Jupiterimages/Thinkstock; ©iStockphoto/ThinkstockPages 16-17: ©Troy House/Ivy/Corbis; ©BananaStock/Jupiterimages/Getty Images; ©iStockphoto/ThinkstockPage 19: (clockwise from top) ©Digital Vision/Thinkstock; ©Hemera/Thinkstock; U.S. Army photo by Tech. Sgt. Dawn Price;
©Radius Images/Getty ImagesPages 20-21: ©Digital Vision/Thinkstock; ©Thomas Northcut/Digital Vision/Thinkstock; U.S. Army photo by Spc. Angelica
GolindanoPages 22-23: ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; ©Ingram Publishing/Thinkstock; ©Creatas/Jupiterimages/Getty ImagesPage 25: Aerial over California’s Bay-Delta region, photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; algae fermentation
bioreactor, ©Volker Steger/Science Source; ©Richard Cohen/Corbis; Oregon coast, ©Ingram Publishing/ThinkstockPages 26-27: Photo courtesy California Department of Water Resources; Florida Everglades, photo by Brian Call, National Park
Service; photo courtesy Oregon State University’s Sea Grant ExtensionPages 28-29: ©iStockphoto/Thinkstock; scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory engaged in algae research for biofuels
production and other applications, LANL photo; removal of 1950s underground storage tanks at Fort Stewart/Hunter Army Airfield, U.S. Army photo
Back cover: The National Academy of Sciences building and the Academies’ Keck Center, both in Washington, D.C.
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national-academies.org/annualreport