REPORT OF THE STANDING COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH … · Monin Justin Ariz Tellería, Javier Arocha,...

SCRS 2013

SCRS 2013

• Background • General scope initiatives of the SCRS in 2013 • Responses to COM Requests • General Recommendations(1)

(1)Species-specific Recommendations & Responses will be presented during the appropriate Panel Meeting

Abaunza Martínez, Pablo Abid, Noureddine Addis, Pierantonio Airosa Ferreira, Júlia Albert, Thomas Amandè, Monin Justin Ariz Tellería, Javier Arocha, Freddy Arrizabalaga, Haritz Ayivi, Sylvia Sefakor Awo Baena Jiménez, Eva Báez, José Carlos Baibbat, Sid Ahmed Bannerman, Paul Brown, Craig A. Buzzi, Alessandro Campoy, Rebecca Cárdenas González, Enrique Carroceda Carballal, Aránzazu Cass-Calay, Shannon Ceyhan, Tevfik Chang, Feng-Chen Chapel, Vincent Chavance, Pierre Chou, Shih-Chin Coelho, Rui Cort, José Luis Cortés, Enric Da Conceiçao, Ilair Daniel, Patrick De Andrés, Marisa De Bruyn, Paul Deguara, Simeon Delgado de Molina Acevedo, Alicia Di Natale, Antonio Diaha, N'Guessan Constance Díaz, Guillermo Die, David Domingo, Andrés El Bakkali, Mohamed El Marhoume, Samira Erdem, Ercan Faillace, Linda Faraj, Abdelmalek Fernández Costa, José Ramón Fiz, Jesús Fonteneau, Alain Fromentin, Jean Marc Gaertner, Daniel Gallego Sanz, Juan Luis García Piña, Cristóbal García Rodríguez, Felicidad García Rodríguez, Raúl García, Alberto García-Orad, María José Garibaldi, Fulvio Gatt, Mark Gomes Pimenta, Eduardo Goujon, Michel Grichat, Hicham Guan, Wenjiang Gutiérrez, Xiomara Hanke, Alex Hassouni, Fatima Zohra Hazin, Fabio H. V. Holtzhausen, Johannes Andries Hsu, Chien-Chung Idrissi, M'Hamed Itoh, Tomoyuki Kacher, Mohamed Kai, Mikihiko Kamel, Mohammed Kaneko, Morio Karakulak, Saadet Keatinge, Michael Kell, Laurence Kilongo N'singi, Kumbi Kim, Zang Geun Kimoto, Ai Kouadri-Krim, Assia Laurent-Monpetit, Christiane Lauretta, Matthew Leboulleux del Castillo, Beatriz Leontiev, Sergei Liberas, Christine Linaae, Cristina Lizcano, Antonio Macedo Gomes De Mattos, Sergio Macías, Ángel David Maguire, Jean-Jacques Mariani, Adriano Marques da Silva Monteiro, Vanda Martínez Cañabate, David Ángel Matsumoto, Takayuki Medina, Marly Melvin, Gary Meski, Driss Meunier, Isabelle Miller, Shana Million, Julien Minami, Hiroshi Mishima, Mari Monteagudo, Juan Pedro Montero Castaño, Carlos Moreno Blanco, Carlos Moreno, Juan Ángel Moreno, Juan Antonio Morón Ayala, Julio Muniategi Bilbao, Anertz Murua, Hilario Mwilima, Aldrin Maswabi Navarro Cid, Juan José Ndaw, Sidi Nesterov, Alexander Ngom Sow, Fambaye Nomxego, Lungelwa Nottestad, Leif Ogura, Miki Okamoto, Hiroaki Ordan, Marcel Ortiz de Urbina, José María Ortiz de Zárate Vidal, Victoria Ortiz, Mauricio Pallarés, Pilar Palma, Carlos Parrilla Moruno, Alberto Thais Peña, Esther Peristeraki, Panagiota (Nota) Perry, Allison Peyre, Christine Peyronnet, Arnaud Pinet, Dorothee Porch, Clarence E. Prince, Eric D. Quílez Badia, Gemma Ramírez López, Karina Restrepo, Victor Rodríguez-Marín, Enrique Rojo, Vanessa Rouchdi, Mohammed M. Santiago Burrutxaga, Josu Santos, Miguel Neves Schirripa, Michael Scott, Gerald P. Seidita, Philomena Serra, Simone Simon, Maximilien Song, Liming Soto Ruiz, María Takeuchi, Yukio Travassos, Paulo Tserpes, George Uosaki, Koji Uozumi, Yuji Walter, John Warwick, Luke West, Wendy Whelan, Christie Wu, Ren-Fen Yokawa, Kotaro Yoon, Sang Chul Zarrad, Rafik

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SCRS participants

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Reported catches in the different oceans: Tuna, bonitos & billfishes

Atlantic & Mediterranean Tuna, Small Tuna and Billfish Production declined during the period 1994-2008 followed by an increasing trend; in the Indian Ocean there has been a recent decline (piracy); in the Pacific, catches stabilized around 4.6 million t since 2006.

6.8 million t in 2011 (0.6 in the Atlantic)

Background

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Reported catches in the different oceans: 5 major Tunas

World Tuna catches have been stabilized ~ 4.4 million MT since 2003

4.5 million t in 2011 (0.46 in the Atlantic)

Background

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Reported catches in the different oceans: 5 major Tunas (Average % 2007-2011)

ALB 5%

BFT 1%

BET 9%

YFT 27%

SKJ 58%

ALB 11%

BFT 5%

BET 18%

YFT 26%

SKJ 40%

All oceans: 4.5 million t in 2011 Atlantic: 0.46 million t in 2011

Background

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• Overall, reported catches in the ICCAT Convention Area peaked in the 1990s and have generally been in decline over the past decade

• 2009 marks the beginning of a recent reverse of this trend

Reported catches in the ICCAT Convention Area

Background

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• SKJ is the cause of the recent increase in catches: 140,000 to 240,000 from 2008 to 2012

Reported catches in the ICCAT Convention Area

Background

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ICCAT Stock Status Report card

2013

Species Stock Last SA Next SA YFT 2011 BET 2010 SKJ E 2008 2014 SKJ W 2008 2014 ALB N 2013 ALB S 2013 ALB M 2011 BFT E 2012 2014 BFT W 2012 2015

SWO N 2013 SWO S 2013 SWO M 2010 2014 BUM 2011 WHM 2012

SAI E 2009 2015 SAI W 2009 2015

BSH N&S 2008 2015 SMA N 2012 SMA S 2012 POB NE 2009 POB NW 2009 POB SW 2009

Seabirds 2009 Other sharks 2012 Sea turtles 2013

Most likely Possibly

65% 7%

28%

7% of the tuna catches in the ICCAT Convention area in 2012 came from stocks in the “red” zone

Background

*

* WBFT: Equaly plausible

SCRS 2013

• 2013 SCRS participation • SCRS Science Strategic Plan [2015-2020] • Dialogue with the Commission • Collaboration with other international organizations • Other actions and initiatives

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Participation Strategic Plan Dialogue Collaboration Other activities

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2013 SCRS participation


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UNITED STATES TUNISIE

JAPAN PANAMA

SOUTH AFRICA TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

GHANA NAMIBIA

CANADA BARBADOS

FRANCE (St-Pierre et Miquelon) HONDURAS

BRASIL ALGÉRIE

MAROC MEXICO

KOREA, Rep. of VANUATU

CÔTE D'IVOIRE ICELAND

ANGOLA TURKEY

RUSSIA PHILIPPINES

GABON NORWAY

CAP-VERT NICARAGUA

URUGUAY GUATEMALA

SÃO TOMÉ E PRINCIPE SENEGAL

VENEZUELA BELIZE

GUINEA ECUATORIAL SYRIA

GUINÉE REP St VINCENT & THE GRENADINES

UNITED KINGDOM (O. territories) NIGERIA

LIBYA EGYPT

CHINA, People's Rep. of ALBANIA

MAURITANIA SIERRA LEONE

EUROPEAN UNION

• SCRS 2013: 25 CPs. • Only 53% of the 47 CPs were represented at the 2013 SCRS

and Species Groups discussions where Scientific & Fishery Management Advice is developed.

CPs attending the SCRS

% CPs attending the SCRS


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• Extra-budgetary funds contributed to assist scientists of Contracting Parties to join in the work of the Committee. Continued contributions are encouraged.

• During 2013, participation of 30 scientists was supported with ICCAT funds provided by several CPCs.

Importance of the Protocol for the use of data funds & other ICCAT Funds adopted in 2011.

CPs attending the SCRS


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The highest number of SCRS scientific documents: 182

BFT, 55

ALB, 33 SWO, 31

GEN, 27

TROP, 16

SHK, 10

SCECO, 8 SMT, 6 BIL, 5


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2013 SCRS activities

Date SCRS – 2013 Meetings Location

Jan 21-25 Training course on Stock Synthesis Model (SS3) Madrid, Spain

Mar 11-15 Meeting of the ICCAT Working Group on Stock Assessment Methods Madrid, Spain

Mar 18-21 Tropical tuna species group intersessional meeting Tenerife, Spain

Apr 8-12 Sharks species group intersessional meeting Mindelo, Cape Vert

Apr 22-26 Albacore Data Preparatory meeting Madrid, Spain

May 7-13 Bluefin meeting on biological parameters review Tenerife, Spain

Jun 3-10 Atlantic swordfish data preparatory meeting Madrid, Spain

Jun 17-24 Atlantic Albacore stock assessment session Sukarrieta, Spain

Jul 1-6 Intersessional meeting of the Subcommittee on Ecosystems Madrid, Spain

Jul 20-22 Bluefin stock assessment methods Boston, USA

Sep 2-10 Atlantic swordfish stock assessment session Olhão, Portugal

Sep 23-27 SCRS Species Groups meetings Madrid, Spain

Sep 30-Oct 4 Meeting of the Standing Committee on Research and statistics Madrid, Spain

Dec 9-13 ICCAT-ICES Training course on MSE Copenhagen, Denmark

Other Meetings

Jun 26-28 WG of Fisheries Managers and Scientists in support of the W-BFT stock assessment

Montreal, Canada

Meeting Reports Available at: www.iccat.int

PLE P1 P4 P2,3 P2 P4 P2,3 PLE, P4 P2 P4 All

All


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Workload of the SCRS and the Secretariat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SCRS interseasonal meetings (N days)

• concerns over the increase in number and length of inter-sessional scientific meetings;

• the current workload for both SCRS and the Secretariat would be difficult to maintain with the current human resources.

• The majority of the meetings are scheduled in response to the work determined by the Commission.

• The use of more complex assessment models (e.g., integrated statistical models) implyies higher burden of work in both the preparatory and assessment processes:

• more time and focus than is possible in a typical 7-10 day assessment workshop meeting • much additional time in assembling and preparing the data streams needed to support

these models

• 11 intersessional meetings • 71 days


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• SCRS has instituted the process of conducting a data preparatory meeting in advance of a stock assessment workshop, developing new procedures for the preparation of data and analysis (i.e., CPUE procedures in 2012) and utilizing electronic communication mechanisms to facilitate intersessional collaboration to attempt to alleviate the difficulty. [Not sufficient!]

• Other tRFMOs which most commonly apply these approaches: the Secretariats have significantly larger SA and DB management staff which is used to centralize these functions.

• SCRS reiterates its recommendation that further additions to data management staff at the Secretariat should be made to address current and future demands, which are likely to increase further.

• “The implementation of the more complex models (MFCL and SS) is not well suited to the

collaborative development of an assessment in the working group environment. These models require considerable development, evaluation and testing by dedicated assessment personnel” (ALB peer review [SCRS/13/171])

• SCRS Science Strategic Plan [2015-2020]: provides the appropriate framework for this debate

Workload of the SCRS and the Secretariat


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Background:

• 2011 meeting of the WG on the Organization of the SCRS (Anon., 2012) identified a set of priorities regarding Research & Development investments, participation of CPC national scientists, capacity building, quality assurance and transparency.

• Resolution on Best Available Science [Res. 2011-17]. The Resolution proposes a set of actions affecting to the different links in the chain of the development of the scientific advice: quality assurance, including aspects in the sphere of collection of data, research, participation and capacity building, Dialogue with the SCRS and, very particularly, quality control of the stock assessments and advice.

• 2012 ICCAT Working Group On Stock Assessment Methods • [SCRS/2012/40] “IMPLEMENTATION OF BEST SCIENCE IN THE SCRS” proposed the elaboration of

the 2014-2020 SCRS Science Strategic Plan. • Recommendation of the 2012 WGSAM: “During 2013 the 2014-2020 SCRS Science Strategic Plan

(including Quality Assurance, Capacity Building and Code of Conduct text,) should be developed by the SCRS.”

• 2012 SCRS meeting “It is therefore proposed, starting in 2013, to develop a draft Strategic Science Plan which will be considered at an ad hoc meeting of the SCRS. This will be peer reviewed before approval by SCRS and adoption by the Commission. The importance of the plan and its development was agreed.”

2015-2020 SCRS Science Strategic Plan


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Background:

• 2013 ICCAT Working Group On Stock Assessment Methods • [SCRS/2013/24] “A PLAN FOR THE PLAN” outlined an approach for identifying key research needs

and components of and a roadmap for developing the 2015-2020 SCRS Strategic Plan • Recommendation of the 2012 WGSAM: “WGSAM endorsed and recommended the plan outlined in

SCRS/2013/024.

• 2013 SCRS meeting “The SCRS agreed that the Strategic Plan was an excellent proposal and noted that ICCAT will be the only tRFMO that will have such a holistic scientific vision”



2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10SCRS 1st discussion

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10Approval by SCRS

11Adoption by COM

2 - 7Assess the situation/ Identify objectives and strategies

1 - 4Complete the Plan

4SCRS ad hoc meeting

5 - 7Peer review

10 - 12Complete the Plan2013

2014

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Components of the SCRS Strategic Plan:

Period 2015-2020 Mission: Outline the purpose of the SCRS, in line with the Rules of

Procedure defined in the ICCAT Convention, its values and the necessities of the Commission. In other words, define “what business are we in?“

Vision: A statement describing where the SCRS desires to be in 2020; the target around which we pursue to focus the attention and energies of the SCRS.

SWOT Analysis: Strengths – Weaknesses – Opportunities – Threaths

Values: The guiding principles of the SCRS, including the elaboration of a code of conduct.



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Components of the SCRS Strategic Plan:



Your final destination. Broad aim towards wich efforts are directed: WHAT

Closely tied to goals. Specific and measurable milestone that must be achieved in order to reach the goal

Plan of action to achiev an objective; the overall direction you are going to take, HOW you are going to get there

Specific action step required to deliver on a strategy; WHAT you do

Goals: The goals are broad priorities for the SCRS. Objectives: Closely tied to goals. Specific and measurable milestone that must be achieved in order to reach the goal Strategies: Within each goal should be strategies, initiatives, projects and priorities that will advance the goal. Tactics, Performance measures: To accomplish the goals applying strategies identified, the plan should include accountability and performance measures. Identify who (i.e. SCRS, Secretariat, CPCs and Commission) is responsible for which elements, how success will be measured and by when (interim dates and deadlines).

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Results of Phase 1



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[draft] MISSION

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[draft] VISION

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[draft] VALUES

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[draft]

[draft] GOALS

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Why a dialogue between SCRS & COM? [Res 11-17] Resolution by ICCAT on Best Available Science: Take all measures which would be appropriate…To improve the communication between CPCs, the Commission and the SCRS by enabling a constant and regular dialogue. 1st WG Convention Amendment [Sapporo, 2013]: In the context of the Precautionary Approach, one CPC highlighted the importance for the Commission to develop clear Harvest Control Rules (HCR) for the stocks managed by it. There was broad support for the Commission to consider this matter at the upcoming annual meeting.

2013 Meeting on Bluefin Stock Assessment Methods [Gloucester, 2013]: Conduct a ‘side event’(SCRS Chairman to co-ordinate) at the 2013 Commission meeting open to CPCs and stakeholder groups, drawing upon the experience at CCSBT to initiate the management /science/ stakeholder dialogue.

[Rec. 11.02] & [Rec. 11.04]: North Atlantic swordfish & North Atlantic Albacore … the SCRS shall develop a Limit Reference Point (LRP) for this stock. Future decisions on the management of this stock shall include a measure that would trigger a rebuilding plan, should the biomass decrease to a level approaching the defined LRP as established by the SCRS.

3 Concepts: - Reference Points (RP) - Harvest Control Rules (HCR) - Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)


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Providing scientific advice: Traditional approach


Biological system

Exploitation system

Stock assessment

Management

DATA

Implementation

Collection of data: biology & fishery

Assessment: Data is analyzed within a model The model provides estimates of resource productivity & current abundance Choose the «best assessment» from alternative hypothesis (models)

Management: Advice & measures

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Reference Points (RP)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1925 1945 1965 1985 2005

SSB

(t)

Reference point (RP)

Performance measure

Performance indicator

Reference Point is a pre-determined level of a given Indicator that corresponds to a particular state of the stock that management either seeks to achieve or avoid.

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• RPs are guidelines for management; can be: • exploitation rates or biomass based; • model or empirical based

• Target Reference Points (TRPs): values for

stock size and/or fishing mortality rate that a manager aims to achieve and maintain.

• Threshold Reference Points (TrRPs), which identify a predefined management response.

• Limit Reference Points (LRPs), which describe an undesirable state of the indicator that should be avoided with high probability.

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ICCAT • Target Reference Points (TRPs):

• None in place yet. • The "green" quadrant of the Kobe

plot is implied as a target region in Rec. 11-13

• Limit Biomass Reference Points (LRPs):

• None yet. • ALB & SWO: Under development by

SCRS [Rec. 11.02] & [Rec. 11.04] • 0.4 BMSY proposed as interim by the

SCRS in 2013 for SWO and ALB

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Harvest Control Rules (HCR)

• RP are only relevant if placed as part of harvest strategies or decision rules pre-agreed (HCR).

• Harvest Control Rules (HCR): Set of pre-agreed rules that will be applied in order to ensure that a given fishery continually seeks to achieve TRPs and avoid LRPs

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• RP are only relevant if placed as part of harvest strategies or decision rules pre-agreed (HCR).

• Harvest Control Rules (HCR): Set of pre-agreed rules that will be applied in order to ensure that a given fishery continually seeks to achieve TRPs and avoid LRPs

Generic form of the HCR recommended by SCRS in 2010 that would be consistent with UNFSA (Report of the 2010 WGSAM) ICCAT

• [Rec 11-13]: “Recommendation by ICCAT on the Principles of Decision Making for

ICCAT Conservation and Management Measures” provides HCR framework but parameters not defined ("high" or "low" probability, timeframes)

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FMSY

BMSY

F

B

P(F<FMSY)=«high»

P(F<FMSY)=«high» in a «short» period Rebuilding plan

P(F<FMSY)=«high» in a «short» period

Rebuild the stock in a «short» period

Objectives of management measures under each Kobe quadrant according to [Rec 11-13]


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Stock CurrentStatus Data richness ICCAT Rec.

Long-run prob. of “Green”

What is a “short” period

SWO N Rich 99.02 50% 10 years

BFT W Medium 98-07 50% 20 years

BFT E Poor 09-06 60% 15 years

ICCAT: some recent references to "high" or "low" probability and timeframes

According to Recovery Plans

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Stock Status Data richness ICCAT Rec. TAC Long-run prob. of “Green”

What is a “short” period

SWO N Rich 11.02 13,700 50% -

SWO S Medium 12.01 15,000 70% -

YFT Medium 11.01 110,000 >80% 5 years (60%)

BET Medium 11.01 85,000 >70% 3 years (60%)

ALB S Medium 11-05 24,000 ~50% > 14 years

ICCAT: some recent references to "high" or "low" probability and timeframes

According to Kobe II Strategy Matrices

F target

B threshold

B lim

HIGH probability

SHORT period

[0.7, 0.75, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9 and 1] x FMSY

[0.6, 0.8 and 1] x BMSY

0.4BMSY

IPCC: 80% Canada: 75% MSC: 70%-80%

USA: 10 years or 1.5 generations Australia: 10 years + 1 generation MSC: 2 generations



average catch cumulative catch

Bthreshold Ftarget 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 3 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years

.6Bmsy

0.75Fmsy 29 32 36 49 54 57 61 65 68 70 73 75 77 78 80 81 82 84 26,969 139,100 293,575 454,716 620,434

0.8Fmsy 29 31 35 45 52 55 58 61 64 67 69 71 74 75 77 78 79 80 28,458 146,274 306,335 472,388 642,668

0.85Fmsy 29 31 33 42 47 52 55 56 59 62 64 67 69 71 72 74 76 77 29,911 153,211 318,349 488,666 662,774

0.9Fmsy 29 30 32 39 42 46 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 71 31,330 159,918 329,637 503,591 680,809

0.95Fmsy 29 29 30 36 37 39 42 44 48 50 51 52 54 55 56 58 60 61 32,715 166,398 340,221 517,205 696,835

.8Bmsy

0.75Fmsy 29 32 42 51 55 59 63 67 70 72 75 76 78 80 81 83 86 88 25,260 133,581 289,167 451,760 618,642

0.8Fmsy 29 32 41 50 53 56 59 62 66 69 71 73 75 77 78 80 81 83 26,655 140,496 301,820 469,532 641,152

0.85Fmsy 29 31 39 48 50 53 56 58 61 63 67 69 71 73 75 76 77 79 28,016 147,185 313,734 485,931 661,571

0.9Fmsy 29 30 37 46 48 50 51 54 56 58 60 62 64 67 69 70 72 73 29,346 153,654 324,930 500,996 679,954

0.95Fmsy 29 29 34 45 45 46 47 48 49 51 52 54 55 56 58 59 61 63 30,643 159,905 335,420 514,759 696,359

Bmsy

0.75Fmsy 29 35 47 58 62 68 72 75 78 80 82 84 87 90 92 94 95 96 22,639 123,151 277,783 441,651 610,569

0.8Fmsy 29 34 46 56 61 66 71 73 76 78 80 82 85 87 90 92 94 95 23,877 129,456 289,836 458,946 632,882

0.85Fmsy 29 33 45 55 59 63 69 71 74 77 78 80 82 84 87 89 91 93 25,083 135,543 301,142 474,839 653,068

0.9Fmsy 29 33 43 54 56 60 66 68 71 74 76 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 26,260 141,416 311,703 489,342 671,130

0.95Fmsy 29 32 42 52 54 57 62 64 67 70 72 73 76 77 78 80 81 83 27,407 147,079 321,520 502,449 687,030

• HCR evaluations indicating the projected probability of being ‘Green’. • Expected catch along different timeframes; to choose appropriate probability and time frames

and weigh tradeoffs with expected catch.

Example: “high probability”=75% & “as soon as possible”=10y

HIGH (?) probability

SHORT (?) period



B treshold F target



• Commission: identify management objectives and HCR that aim to achieve those objectives, define RPs, performance indicators, and also define the level of risk that is acceptable

• SCRS: help to define the LRP and the associated acceptable level of risk, as this is strongly influenced by the biology of the stock; conduct the stock assessments that inform on the status of the stock relative to RPs.

Stock assessment

Management

DATA

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Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)

Biological system

Exploitation system

Stock assessment

Management

DATA

Implementation

• It takes no full account of UNCERTAINTY (the model selected may not constitute the best representation of the actual resource dynamics)

• While projections based on the « best assessment » can take account of quantified uncertainty (e.g. model estimation errors & future R variability), projections typically are based on constant C of F assumptions.

• Projections of this nature do not necessarily capture the full range of uncertainty and thus may inaccurately represent risk.

Providing scientific advice with the Traditional approach:

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Providing scientific advice with the MSE approach: • MSE requires evaluating all aspects of a management strategy: data to be

collected, methods of analysis, management actions, and uncertain consequences of the these actions (implementation error).

• MSE helps identify management strategies that are robust to uncertainties in the stock assessment.

• HCRs with their ability to translate predetermined RPs and fish stock status into fishery management actions, is one of the essential components in MSE

• A vast majority of fishery scientists consider MSE to be a dominant issue in the future of fisheries stock assessment.

• MSE acts as a healthy antidote to the “Pygmalion effect”.

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Providing scientific advice with the MSE approach: • It was developed more than 20 years ago; it has been used by the International

Whaling Commission, CCAMLR, CCSBT and has been adopted as a standard fisheries tool in South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, EU…

• The strength of the approach is that instead of using a single model to find an optimal solution, multiple candidate models are put forward to evaluate alternate hypotheses.

• The other core strength of the process is that it is consultative - both managers and stakeholders can have input into the candidate models and management scenarios. As the approach demands clear objectives to do the evaluations against, the method forces participants to be clear about their objectives and to specify performance indicators to quantify whether goals have been achieved.

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OM OPERATING MODEL

Biological system

Exploitation system

MP MANAGEMENT

PROCEDURE

Stock assessment

Management

DATA

Implementation

Evaluation

Underlying reality Analyst’ perception

CONSERVATION related performance

CATCH related performance

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Equivalent to a management strategy

Includes classical “Assessment” based

on available “Data”, as well as a method of translating assessment results into “Management” decisions.

Part of the MP includes a decision about the “Data” to be collected and used.

Many current stock assessment processes end there, but the MSE paradigm insists that any useful MP should be tested by simulation before it is applied in practice.

MP MANAGEMENT

PROCEDURE

Stock assessment

Management

DATA

Implementation

Analyst’ perception Management Procedure (MP)

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Test the MP by simulation with a

model (designed to reflect realism and uncertainty).

The “Evaluation” box allows

stakeholders to judge the outcome of the MP.

OM OPERATING MODEL

Biological system

Exploitation system

DATA

Im

plem

enta

tion

Evaluation

Underlying reality Operating Model (OM)

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Work plan for the Working Group of Stock Assessment Methods • The evaluation of LRP and HCR through the use of MSE is increasingly being recognized by

global tuna RFMOs as an effective means to advance their fishery management process.

• The 2013 assessments of albacore and swordfish were used as examples of how an MSE process could possibly be formally included in the management of those stocks.

• The WGSAM plans to continue this effort by 1) continuing to refine the methods within the MSE process, 2) introduce MSE more assessments when and where appropriate, and 3) foster lines of communication that keep managers informed of their benefits and

weaknesses

Work plan for ALB & SWO The main objective will be to prepare the next assessments for these stocks (not scheduled yet), by reducing uncertainty around datasets and parameters on one hand, and developing robust management procedures that cope with the uncertainty that remains.

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2013

Data guillotine for the OM

Meeting 2016 2: MP MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES Robustness testing

Circulation OM code

Meeting 2016 1: OPERATING MODEL OM specifications (conditioning)

Meeting 2014: OPERATING MODEL Basis for a OM prototype

Meeting 2017: MP Recommendations to COM on MP to adopt

Work plan for BFT MSE 2013 meeting on BFT stock assessment methods

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ICCAT Working Group of Fisheries Managers and Scientists

• Goal: To establish a permanent dialogue to improve the SCRS scientific advice to the Commission in support of the ICCAT Convention objectives

• Items to be covered in 2014: 1 ) SCRS Science Strategic Plan 20015-2020 2 ) Reference Points and Harvest Control Rules for ICCAT stocks 3 ) MSE implementation for Atlantic BFT

Dialogue between SCRS & COM: Proposal

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• Support for collaborations between ICCAT and other organizations: this will improve the capacity,information and analysis available for scientific advice.

• Several organizations had already conducted extensive work on areas of interest to ICCAT and the SCRS could take advantage of these analyses.

• The Committee was informed that two draft MOUs between ICCAT and the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels (ACAP) and the Inter-American Convention for the Protection and Conservation of Sea Turtles (IAC) have been formulated, and the Committee recommended that these MOUs be presented to the Commission in due time for their appreciation, in line with previous request by the Sub-Committee on Ecosystems that ICCAT cooperation with the IAC be strengthened via a MOU.

• Proposal of MoU for the Consortium on Billfish Management and Conservation (CBMC)

• FAO/GEF ABNJ tuna project

Collaboration with other international organizations


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Quality Assurance initiatives: Continue testing the Protocol for inclusion or use of CPUE series in assessment

models (tested by ALB & SWO Working Groups). Standardization of assessment model diagnostics and their presentation (WGSAM)

Revise TORs for Peer review. (WGSAM)

Peer review has been taken up again: WHM [2012], ALB [2013], SKJ [2014].

Cloud computing: cloud infrastructure was tested during ALB & SWO SA

Other iniatives conducted during 2013

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2013 Meeting of the ICCAT Working Group on Stock Assessment Methods (WGSAM)

• Propose appropriate assessment model diagnostics and their presentation.

• Revise and improve methods for estimation of EFFDIS.

• Development of limit reference points for ICCAT stocks.

• Incorporation of improved biological information in stock assessment advice – evaluation of advice using MSE.

• ID components to be included in the SCRS Science Strategic Plan.

• Revise TORs for Peer review and selection of experts

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Strategic initiative on Stock Assessment methods (SISAM)


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2013 Intersessional meeting of the Subcommittee on Ecosystems

• By-catch component (Panel 4)

• Ecosystem component: Participation at meetings Approaches for implementing EBFM Resolution 12-12 (Sargasso Sea) Test case for developing a EBFM reporting framework

The Group recognized that the basic biological and ecological data provided for the Sargasso Sea offers a useful foundation for adopting this region as a basis for a case study.

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2013 Meeting of the Subcommittee on Statistics

• Review of fisheries and biological data submitted during 2013 (SCI-008)

• Improvements in T1 data reporting (catch and fleet statistics) probably related to the Data Report Card (DRC) and its implications for compliance; but DRC has limited utility in identification of data gaps which should be addressed.

• Improvements in T2 data. • However it was noted that there are numerous gaps in these data

which should be identified and rectified, where possible.

• Need to recover and report actual size frequency samples in addition to raised CAS.

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2013 Meeting of the Subcommittee on Statistics

A Burden on the Secretariat: How much data to process?

In 2013, a considerable volume of data were handled by the Secretariat, much of which represented revisions of data previously submitted, presumably to meet compliance deadlines and subsequently revised to reflect a more representative view of the real fishery performance. This practice increases the burden on the current staff at the Secretariat.

Group Item No. of files total size (MB)STAT T1 & T2 1551 972

tagging 90 23others (obsProgs, birds, turles, ISSF, JDMIP) 160 36bycatch 598 328

STAT sub-total 2399 1359COMP Vessels 1848 265

BCD's 2136 680Re-exports 332 530Catch reports (month/week) 411 133Farming 179 100others (Ports, ROP, SDP's, etc) 414 72

COMP sub-total 5320 1780TOTAL 7719 3139

Files involved in data processing(inventory/forms/intermediate/etc)

PeriodICCAT-DB

between 2012-Oct-01 and 2013-Sep-01as of 2013-09-19

dset pending (pre) new (cur) revisions Totalt1fc 3 182 8 193 t1nc 625 3,905 664 5,194 t2ce - 50,489 9,122 59,611 t2sz 5,965 877,933 64,996 948,894 TOTAL 6,593 932,509 74,790 1,013,892

Number of records processed in statistics (T1 & T2) databases

SCRS 2013

16.1 Review the content of FAD Management Plans elaborated by CPCs and define a format for FAD information from logbooks Rec. [11-01], par. 25 and 19. P1

16.2 Evaluate the BFT pilot studies to estimate both the number and weight of bluefin tuna at the point of capture and caging using stereoscopical systems, Rec. [12-03], par. 88. P2

16.3 Evaluate the BFT national observer programmes conducted by CPCs to report the Commission and to provide advice on future improvements, Rec. [12-03], par. 90. P2

16.4 Provide updated tables of BFT growth rate in weight based on the information from BCDs and other submitted data, Rec. [12-03], par. 98. P2

16.5 Response to paragraph 27 of Rec. [12-03] on the creation of sanctuaries in the Mediterranean Sea for bluefin tuna. P2

16.6 Review available fishery and stock indicator trends [of W-BFT] and estimated yearly catch rates [of E-BFT], Rec. [12-02], par. 16 and Rec. [12-03], par. 50. P2

16.7 Provide answers to a set of questions on EBFT addressed by Panel 2 to the SCRS. P2

16.8 Provide answer to the requests from the 1st Working Group WBFT Fisheries Managers and Scientists. P2

16.9 Develop Limit Reference Point for Swordfish, Rec. [11-02], paragraph 4. P4

16.10

Evaluate the number of discards and releases of silky sharks with indication of status (dead or alive) provided by CPCs and report on the sources of silky shark mortality in ICCAT fisheries, including silky shark discard mortality rates, and provide an analysis and advice regarding the benefits of a range of specific silky shark management options, Rec. [11-08], paragraph 9.

P4

SCRS 2013

16.11 Analyze the potential benefits and applicability of the use of time/area closures as a tool for marlin conservation Rec. [11-07], par. 4. P4

16.12 Review the methods used for estimating live and dead discards of blue marlin and white marlin/spearfish and provide advice on any improvements needed, Rec. [12-04], par. 8. P4

16.13

Review existing regional or individual CPC data collection programs, including capacity building programs, for artisanal fisheries and provide a plan to work with relevant regional and sub-regional international organizations and CPCs to expand such programs or implement them in new areas to improve data on billfish catches in these fisheries, Rec. [12-04], par. 9.

P4

16.14 Evaluate the national observer programmes conducted by CPCs to report the Commission and to provide advice on future improvements, Rec. [10-10], par. 6. PL

16.15 Evaluate and provide advice on alternative methods to collect bycatch and discard data on artisanal fisheries that are not subject to ICCAT’s minimum standards for scientific observer programs [Rec. 11-10].

PL

16.16 Evaluation of data deficiencies pursuant to Rec. [05-09]. P2,3,4

16.17 Response to the Commission regarding Rec. 10-09 on the bycatch of sea turtles in ICCAT Fisheries [Rec. 10-09] P4

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16.14 16.15

16.14 Evaluate the national observer programmes conducted by CPCs to report the Commission and to provide advice on future improvements, Rec.[10-10] par. 6

• The response rate to the obligation to report on national observer programs continues to be quite low.

• The Secretariat has received on average 14 responses over the past two years to the requests for information circulated to CPCs (not all in theformat specified in Form CP45)

• The information provided in the Appendix 2 of the Secretariat Report on Statistics and Coordination of Research (SCI-008) both this year and in 2012 reflects if the specified information is being collected. It does not imply the data are available to the Secretariat at this stage although several CPCs have sent their actual observer data in the format in which it is captured by their national programmes.

• During 2013, the Secretariat has updated the forms; they should facilitate the submission of both aggregated and highly dis-aggregated data to accommodate the needs of individual CPCs.

• The Sub-Committee recommended this standard form, once adopted by SCRS, be made available to all CPCs to standardise the submission of observer data and facilitate its incorporation into a database to be maintained by the ICCAT Secretariat.

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16.14 16.15

16.15 Evaluate and provide advice on alternative methods to collect bycatch and discard data on artisanal fisheries that are not subject to ICCAT’s minimum standards for scientific observer programs [Rec. 11-10].

• [Rec. 11-10], among other items, requires for artisanal fisheries that are not subject to ICCAT’s [Rec. 10-10] or [Rec. 03-13] that CPCs implement measures to collect by-catch and discard data through alternative means and describe these efforts in their Annual Reports, beginning in 2012. The SCRS shall evaluate these measures in 2013 and provide advice to the Commission on this matter.

• Limited information has been provided on this particular topic thus far, possibly due to complications in addressing this issue as noted in section 16.13.

• Shore-based sampling of landings would provide an adequate method to document and characterize catch composition and disposition.

• Electronic observation systems was recommended as an approach that could be used to supplement and, in some cases, substitute for human observers.

SCRS 2013

• Recommendations that are of a general nature and may

carry substantial financial implications for CPCs and Commission [Species-specific recommendations which also may carry substantial financial implications for CPCs and Commission will be presented during the appropriate panel discussion]

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• Travel funds be allocated to support the participation of external experts to help develop the scientific tools required to implement EBFM approaches.

• The Sub-Committee continues its collaboration with the Sargasso Sea Alliance with regard to the analysis of the ecological importance of the Sargasso Sea for tuna and tuna-like species and ecologically associated species.

• SCRS and the Secretariat work with other tRFMOs to develop common protocols for peer reviews when applicable, particularly with regard to identification of suitable experts.

• Reimbursement for invited experts and external reviewers could be based on the standard time frames and rates developed by the CIE. Invited external experts and peer reviewers should follow the TORS prescribed by the WGSAM in 2013.

Working Group on Stock Assessment Methods (WGSAM)

Work Plan Recommendations

Sub-Committee on Ecosystems

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• Increase in the Secretariat staff equivalent to 1 additional person-year to support Data Base management needs linked to the increasing demands placed on SCRS to meet the needs of the Commission.

• In order to avoid duplication and improve utility of initiatives to improve data-collection in artisanal fisheries it is recommended that a contract be made to develop an inventory of the recent and on-going initiatives to improve artisanal fishery data collection activities amongst the CPCs.


Sub-Committee on Statistics

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Proposed calendar of ICCAT scientific meetings in 2014

• SKJ (East & West Atlantic) • SWO (Mediterranean) • BFT (Eeastern) • SCRS Strategic Plan

2015: BSH, BFT (East & West), SAI (East & West)


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• The evaluation of LRP and HCR through the use of MSE is increasingly being recognized by global tuna RFMOs as an effective means to advance their fishery management process.

• The WGSAM plans to continue this effort by 1) continuing to refine the methods within the MSE process, 2) introduce MSE in more assessments when and where appropriate, and 3) foster lines of communication that keep managers informed of their benefits and

weaknesses

Working Group on Stock Assessment Methods (WGSAM)

• Develop linkages with other RFMOs that conduct scientific studies, provide management and are developing the tools to implement the EBFM approach within their management area (e.g., tRFMOs, GFCM, NAFO and ICES).

• The SCRS will examine the available data and information concerning the Sargasso Sea and its ecological importance to tuna and tuna-like species and ecologically associated species. [Res. 12-12]

Sub-Committee on Ecosystems

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• The Sub-Committee recommends that CPCs take steps to assure that Statistical Correspondents are fully versed and equipped to meet data reporting obligations and that those individuals attend the Sub-Committee on Statistics annual meeting, at a minimum.

• Identify better ways to characterize uncertainty in unquantifiable aspects of data submissions (related to quality control). An inter-sessional discussion on refining the methodology and evaluating additional methods to characterize this uncertainty will be held.

• More focused discussions on artisanal fisheries data-collection be conducted intersessionally. Strategic investments in the short-term may make improvements, but more discussion needs be carried out to avoid duplication and improve utility.

Sub-Committee on Statistics

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