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International Commission on Statistical Hydrology ICSH – IAHS (former STAHY-WG)

REPORT OF ACTIVITIES: JUNE, 2016 – JULY, 2017 SUMMARY OF THE REPORT 1. ICSH VISIBILITY IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY;

2. ICSH WORKSHOPS AD SESSIONS ORGANIZED IN THE PERIOD JUNE, 2016- JULY, 2017;

3. FORTHCOMING EVENTS;

4. UPDATE ON ICSH INITIATIVES IN PROGRESS.

1. THE ICSH VISIBILITY IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY Until now, ICSH collected 191 registered active participants from 56 countries plus many other “friends”.

Figure: Geographical distribution of STAHY website visitors.

Since January 2010 the Google Analytics service was linked to the STAHY website. It was useful to monitor the site visitors. Until now we had around 42’000 visits and 25,000 unique visitors from 168 countries with an average of 20 visits per day. Furthermore, in more than 35 scientific papers the STAHY website is mentioned in the text and suggested as focal point for statistical hydrology.

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2. THE ICSH WORKSHOPS AND SESSIONS ORGANIZED IN THE PERIOD JUNE, 2016 – JULY, 2017 May 30- June 3, 2016 Montpellier, France. Statistical French Society Conference Session: Applications in hydro-meteorology and hydro-climatology Conveners: Julie Carreau, Rim Chérif, Emna Gargouri and Luc Neppel This session is sponsored by the Committee on Probability and Statistics in the Physical Sciences of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability and by ICSH- IAHS. website: http://jds2016.sfds.asso.fr April 23-28, 2017 Vienna, Austria - EGU 2017 General Assembly HS7.7/NH1.17 - Hydroclimatic and hydrometeorlogic stochastics: extremes, scales and probabilities PICO session Convener: Alberto Viglione; Co-conveners: Rui A.P. Perdigão, Marco Borga, Andrea Langousis, Xiaolan L. Wang, Salvatore Grimaldi, Auguste Gires website: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2017/session/22999 July 24-30, 2016 Short Course "Copulas for hydrology and environmental sciences" (sixth edition) Centro Studi Alpino - Pieve Tesino, Italy. Instructors: Salvatore Grimaldi, University of Tuscia, Italy. Ivan Kojadinovic, Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, France. Gianfausto Salvadori, Università del Salento, Italy.

September 26-27, 2016 – Quebec City | Canada | STAHY’16 Workshop INRS - Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique Quebec City, Canada Chairman: Fateh Chebana, INRS website: http://stahy2016.ca

July 24-30, 2016 Centro Studi Alpino - Pieve Tesino, ItalyShort Course "Copulas for hydrology and environmental sciences" - 6th Edition

website:http://www.stahy.org/Events/2016CopulaShortCourse/tabid/120/Default.aspx

Dal 25 al 26 luglio 2016 si è tenuta la sesta edizione dello short course “Copulas for hydrology and environmental sciences” organizzata dall’International Association of Hydrological Science - International Commission on Statistical Hydrology (ICSH-IAHS).

Il Corso si è tenuto presso il Centro Studi Alpino dell’Università degli Studi della Tuscia di Pieve Tesino e ha visto la partecipazione di 17 dottorandi, ricercatori e professori con diverso background disciplinare provenienti da diversi Paesi (Thailandia, Korea, Marocco, Turchia, Germania, Iran, Italia).

La sede di Pieve Tesino si è rilevata una scelta estremamente positiva visto che ha agevolato e incentivato l’interazione scienfico-culturale tra i docenti e i partecipanti al corso risultata carente nelle 5 edizioni precedenti.

Docenti del Corso:Ivan Kojadinovic, Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, France.Gianfausto Salvadori, Università del Salento, Italy.Salvatore Grimaldi, University of Tuscia, Italy.

Comitato OrganizzatoreAndrea Petroselli, University of Tuscia, ItalyFlavia Tauro, University of Tuscia, Italy

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3. FORTHCOMING EVENTS July 10-14, 2017 Port Elisabeth, South Africa - IAHS 2017 General Assembly "Water and Development: scientific challenges in addressing societal issues" website: http://cwrr.ukzn.ac.za/iahs/call-for-papers/iahs-2017-in-south-africa---invitation August 13-19, 2017 Short Course "Copulas for hydrology and environmental sciences" (7th edition) Hohai University, Nanjing, China Instructors: Salvatore Grimaldi, University of Tuscia, Italy. Gianfausto Salvadori, Università del Salento, Italy. Fabrizio Durante, Università del Salento, Italy. Zhongmin Liang, Hohai University, China. Thanks to Yuanfang Chen, ICSH Vice-President Website: http://www.stahy.org/Events/ShortcourseCOPULA17/tabid/130/Default.aspx SEPTEMBER 21-22, 2017 STAHY'17 WORKSHOP UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES WARSAW, POLAND Chairman: Krzysztof Kochanek, Vice-President of ICSH WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.STAHY2017.ORG

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4. UPDATE ON ICSH INITIATIVES IN PROGRESS “STAHY Best Paper” award During the IAHS Bureau held in Delft on October 23, 2012 it was approved to establish a new IAHS Award promoted and managed by the International Commission on Statistical Hydrology (ICSH-IAHS). The name of the award is: “STAHY Best Paper Award” of ICSH-IAHS. The award consists in the IAHS Award Certificate and in the economical support (registration fee and accommodation) for one of the authors that will be invited lecture during the ICSH annual workshop. In the following procedure and requirements are described: The only requirement is that the paper is included in one of the ICSH reference collection lists of STAHY website. The procedure: In the first or second call of papers of ICSH topical conference it will be announced the award selection and fixed the deadlines for the paper evaluation. After the deadline all papers present in the ICSH topic reference lists and included the evaluation period will be collected. The evaluation period will be 3 years starting from 5 years before the ICSH topical conference year (for instance if the conference will be on 2015 the evaluation period will 2011-2013). All collected papers will be ordered by citations present in Scopus database (excluding self citations of all authors) at the deadline. The first 20 papers will be evaluated by the ICSH officers. STAHY Best Paper Award 2016 – Results The STAHY Best Paper 2016 is the result of evaluation of 22 papers, selected among the 274 papers (published in 2012-2013-2014) present in ICSH website and ordered by citations (SCOPUS database, excluding self citations). The STAHY Best Paper Award 2016 will be assigned during the STAHY'16 Conference - Quebec City, September 2016. The list of 22 eligible papers is: 1) Westra, S., Alexander, L.V., Zwiers, F.W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation (2013) Journal of Climate, 26 (11), pp. 3904-3918. Cited 63 times. 2) Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., López-Moreno, J.I., Morán-Tejeda, E., Zabalza, J. Recent trends in Iberian streamflows (1945-2005) (2012) Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, pp. 463-475. Cited 43 times. 3) Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A. Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model (2013) Advances in Water Resources, 57, pp. 12-18. Cited 41 times. *4) Gr̈aler, B., Van Den Berg, M.J., Vandenberghe, S., Petroselli, A., Grimaldi, S., De Baets, B., Verhoest, N.E.C. Multivariate return periods in hydrology: A critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (4), pp. 1281-1296. Cited 35 times. 5) Salas, J.D., Obeysekera, J. Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events (2014) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (3), pp. 554-568. Cited 34 times. 6) Sonali, P., Nagesh Kumar, D. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India (2013) Journal of Hydrology, 476, pp. 212-227. Cited 34 times. 7) Bessa, R.J., Miranda, V., Botterud, A., Zhou, Z., Wang, J. Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting (2012) Renewable Energy, 40 (1), pp. 29-39. Cited 32 times. 8) Tabari, H., Kisi, O., Ezani, A., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. SVM, ANFIS, regression and climate based models for reference evapotranspiration modeling using limited climatic data in a semi-arid highland environment (2012) Journal of Hydrology, 444-445, pp. 78-89. Cited 30 times. 9) Gilroy, K.L., McCuen, R.H. A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization (2012) Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, pp. 40-48. Cited 30 times. 10) Hagspiel, S., Papaemannouil, A., Schmid, M., Andersson, G. Copula-based modeling of stochastic wind power in Europe and implications for the Swiss power grid (2012) Applied Energy, 96, pp. 33-44. Cited 26 times. 11) Kisi, O., Shiri, J., Tombul, M. Modeling rainfall-runoff process using soft computing techniques (2013) Computers and Geosciences, 51, pp. 108-117. Cited 25 times. 12) Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W.J.W., Bouwer, L.M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., Ward, P.J. Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods (2014) Nature Climate Change, 4 (4), pp. 264-268. Cited 23 times. *13) Ishak, E.H., Rahman, A., Westra, S., Sharma, A., Kuczera, G. Evaluating the non-stationarity of australian annual maximum flood (2013) Journal of Hydrology, 494, pp. 134-145. Cited 33 times. 14) Piani, C., Haerter, J.O. Two dimensional bias correction of temperature and precipitation copulas in climate models (2012) Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (20), art. no. L20401, . Cited 23 times.

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15) Hao, Z., Aghakouchak, A. A nonparametric multivariate multi-index drought monitoring framework (2014) Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (1), pp. 89-101. Cited 22 times. 16) Istanbulluoglu, E., Wang, T., Wright, O.M., Lenters, J.D. Interpretation of hydrologic trends from a water balance perspective: The role of groundwater storage in the Budyko hypothesis (2012) Water Resources Research, 48 (1), art. no. W00H16, . Cited 24 times. 17) Hu, Y., Maskey, S., Uhlenbrook, S. Trends in temperature and rainfall extremes in the Yellow River source region, China (2012) Climatic Change, 110 (1-2), pp. 403-429. Cited 22 times. 18) Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L.M. The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (7), pp. 2717-2733. Cited 21 times. 19) Rougé, C., Ge, Y., Cai, X. Detecting gradual and abrupt changes in hydrological records (2013) Advances in Water Resources, 53, pp. 33-44. Cited 21 times. 20) Zhang, Q., Singh, V.P., Peng, J., Chen, Y.D., Li, J. Spatial-temporal changes of precipitation structure across the Pearl River basin, China (2012) Journal of Hydrology, 440-441, pp. 113-122. Cited 21 times. 21) Zhang, Q., Singh, V.P., Li, J., Jiang, F., Bai, Y. Spatio-temporal variations of precipitation extremes in Xinjiang, China (2012) Journal of Hydrology, 434-435, pp. 7-18. Cited 21 times. 22) Tramblay, Y., Badi, W., Driouech, F., El Adlouni, S., Neppel, L., Servat, E. Climate change impacts on extreme precipitation in Morocco (2012) Global and Planetary Change, 82-83, pp. 104-114. Cited 21 times. *these papers are excluded from the evaluation procedure since one of the authors is part of the Award Committee. The STAHY Best Paper Award 2016 is assigned to: Jose D. Salas, Colorado State University, USA Jayantha Obeysekera, South Florida Water Management District, USA for the paper: Salas, J.D., Obeysekera, J. Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events (2014) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (3), pp. 554-568.

Jose D. SalasJayantha Obeysekera The STAHY Best Paper Award 2017 working progress results: The STAHY Best Paper 2017 is the result of evaluation of 21 papers, selected among the 209 papers (published in 2013-2014-2015) present in ICSH website and ordered by citations (SCOPUS database, excluding self citations). The STAHY Best Paper Award 2017 will be assigned during the STAHY'17 Conference - Warsaw, Poland September 2017. The list of 21 eligible papers is: 1) Westra, S., Alexander, L.V., Zwiers, F.W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation (2013) Journal of Climate, 26 (11), pp. 3904-3918. Cited 122 times. 2) Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A. Multivariate Standardized Drought Index: A parametric multi-index model (2013) Advances in Water Resources, 57, pp. 12-18. Cited 87 times. Cited 73 times 3) *Salas, J.D., Obeysekera, J. Revisiting the concepts of return period and risk for nonstationary hydrologic extreme events (2014) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (3), pp. 554-568. Cited 69 times. 4) *Gr̈aler, B., Van Den Berg, M.J., Vandenberghe, S., Petroselli, A., Grimaldi, S., De Baets, B., Verhoest, N.E.C. Multivariate return periods in hydrology: A critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (4), pp. 1281-1296. Cited 59 times 5) Sonali, P., Nagesh Kumar, D. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India (2013) Journal of Hydrology, 476, pp. 212-227. Cited 58 times.

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6) Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Mechler, R., Botzen, W.J.W., Bouwer, L.M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., Ward, P.J. Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods (2014) Nature Climate Change, 4 (4), pp. 264-268. Cited 54 times. 7) AghaKouchak, A., Cheng, L., Mazdiyasni, O., Farahmand, A. Global warming and changes in risk of concurrent climate extremes: Insights from the 2014 California drought (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (24), pp. 8847-8852. Cited 49 times. 8) Hao, Z., Aghakouchak, A. A nonparametric multivariate multi-index drought monitoring framework (2014) Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (1), pp. 89-101. Cited 46 times. 9) Kisi, O., Shiri, J., Tombul, M. Modeling rainfall-runoff process using soft computing techniques (2013) Computers and Geosciences, 51, pp. 108-117. Cited 38 times. 10) *Ishak, E.H., Rahman, A., Westra, S., Sharma, A., Kuczera, G. Evaluating the non-stationarity of australian annual maximum flood (2013) Journal of Hydrology, 494, pp. 134-145. Cited 33 times. 11) Karthikeyan, L., Nagesh Kumar, D. Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models (2013) Journal of Hydrology, 502, pp. 103-119. Cited 32 times. 12) Cheng, L., AghaKouchak, A., Gilleland, E., Katz, R.W. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate (2014) Climatic Change, 127 (2), pp. 353-369. Cited 30 times 13) Madadgar, S., Moradkhani, H. Drought analysis under climate change using copula (2013) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18 (7), pp. 746-759. Cited 30 times. 14) Hannaford, J., Buys, G., Stahl, K., Tallaksen, L.M. The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17 (7), pp. 2717-2733. Cited 30 times. 15) Rougé, C., Ge, Y., Cai, X. Detecting gradual and abrupt changes in hydrological records (2013) Advances in Water Resources, 53, pp. 33-44. Cited 29 times. 16) Corbella, S., Stretch, D.D. Simulating a multivariate sea storm using Archimedean copulas (2013) Coastal Engineering, 76, pp. 68-78. Cited 29 times. 17) Cheng, L., Aghakouchak, A. Nonstationary precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for infrastructure design in a changing climate (2014) Scientific Reports, 4, art. no. 7093. Cited 26 times 18) Chiew, F.H.S., Potter, N.J., Vaze, J., Petheram, C., Zhang, L., Teng, J., Post, D.A. Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: Implications for modelling and prediction (2014) Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28 (1), pp. 3-15. Cited 25 times. 19) Chen, X.Y., Chau, K.W., Busari, A.O. A comparative study of population-based optimization algorithms for downstream river flow forecasting by a hybrid neural network model (2015) Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 46, pp. 258-268. Cited 25 times. 20) Koutsoyiannis, D. Hydrology and change (2013) Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), pp. 1177-1197. Cited 24 times. 21)Tabari, H., Aghajanloo, M.-B. Temporal pattern of aridity index in Iran with considering precipitation and evapotranspiration trends (2013) International Journal of Climatology, 33 (2), pp. 396-409. Cited 24 times *this paper is excluded from the evaluation procedure since one of the authors is part of the Award Committee or since the paper was the winner of previous editions of the award. I am particularly grateful to the ICSH Officers (Ashish Sharma, Elena Volpi,, Ebru Eris, Yuanfang Chen, Krysztof Kochanek) and to the topic/initiative coordinators for their intense and fruitful collaboration. Only thanks to their effort and enthusiasm that is was possible to develop the ICSH initiatives.

Salvatore Grimaldi ICSH-IAHS President