REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a...

287
REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW STRUCTURAL AREA INSPECTION FREQUENCY EVALUATION (SAIFE) Volume IV. Software Documentation and User's Manual 0 Book 2. Modified Program James Gillespie , OCT 10 .198 SCiN APRIL 1978 FINAL REPORT Document is available to the U.S. p'ublic through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Prepared for U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION Systems Research & Development Service Washington, D.C. 20590 Li

Transcript of REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a...

Page 1: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVWSTRUCTURAL AREA INSPECTIONFREQUENCY EVALUATION (SAIFE)

Volume IV. Software Documentation and User's Manual

0 Book 2. Modified Program

James Gillespie ,

OCT 10 .198

SCiN

APRIL 1978FINAL REPORT

Document is available to the U.S. p'ublic throughthe National Technical Information Service,

Springfield, Virginia 22161.

Prepared for

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATIONFEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

Systems Research & Development Service

Washington, D.C. 20590

Li

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DI CLAIME-4,.

THIS DOCUMENT IS BESTQUALIY AVAILABLE. TI• COPYFURNISHED TO DTIC CONTAINED

A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF

AG E 5 -' TWH'ICH DO NOT

~ FODUCYf lT B LY.

REPRODUCED FROMBEST AVAILABLE COPY

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I0S

I

NOT ICE

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of theDepartment of Transportation in the interest of informationexchange. The United States Government assumes no liabilityfor its contents or use thereof.

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Technical Repori Documentation Page1 RPortf No. 2. Goeoefm~ot Acces.*.~b No. 3. Roc,p~ont m Catalog No

8.AQ78-29, IV, B~ook 2 '1 D.

STRUCTURAL~AREA INSPECTION FREQUENCY EVALUATION" A Ap r.11 .1ý97 8 _ _

VoIumne 7T Sofwr Doue tation and'User's I *ar.- -7rgcnAhboaho Code

Manual. Book 2 MODIFIED PROGRA1\4 A FS-SI 510 _

1," _8 P.,fo.,-nq , go'ý.xoteon Rrpo'' No

Jam _ýJI es 1;lle s9 Bw1'tom.atne andd'

rAA, AFS-51.2Aeronautical Ccnie 1, P, 0. Box 25082 11 CO14

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73125DOFA4-39f(

1.Spon,song Agency No', and Add,666

Department of TransportationFederal Aviation Administration F inal yepoA.

SsesResearch and Developmen Seric Mio IAA wyWashington, D.C. 20590

1$ Sypolormqatary Notes

Tarsist in the evaluation of proposed structural inspection programs forcommerc a 1jet transport aircraft, a logic was developed to simulate structuraldefects, failures, and inspections. This logic was incorporated in a computerprogram entitled Structural Area Inspection Frequency Evaluation (SAIFE). With the

* ~objective of quantifying the evaluation process currently used to establish andmodify inspection intervals, SAIFE accounts for the following factors: (1) aircraft

* design analysis; (2) fatigue testing; (3) production, service, and corrosion de-fects; (4) probability of crack or corrosion detection; and (5) aircraft modifica-tion economics. As a five-volume document, this report covers the initial contracteffort plus a subsequent parametric analysis as follows: Volume(ý ý-nti tied FxQQýWt4ve-Jw*a4ry} presents the SAIFE logic and documents the methodology for-the de- 2cision-making processes in the simulation logic. Volume,1 1~(nlld~cit.~eSim4iio L444-ogit details the SAIFE simulation logic, presents the background datafor the analytical functions and decision-making processes, and includes data for atypical s4mulation problem. I'olu L t1it. -a p~,IJ~Jtivi mpt

~Scrvy---a-d--i~-0-~±'presents data tAbulations derived from historical trends anddesign input data for a SAIFE demonstration problem. As the user's Manual for the

SAIFE ~ ~ ~ t coptrpora,)lmKVcontains detailed computer logic flow diagrams andacomplete listing of te program which is written in SIMSCRIPT 11.5. Volume V

a ~d lcz~l3 ofMoJ~lDemrs-trri"te-)..prosents the results of the program appli-cation to a hypothetical aircraft and compares these results with the service ex-perience of operational aircraft,. __-

17. Key Worda 18. Distrdbution 5to,.ment

Aircraft experience simulation; aircraft Document is available to the publicinspection intervals; aircraft hazard truhteNtoa ehiarate and reliability; production, service truhthainl ehiaand corrosion defects; crack or corrosion Information Service, Springfield,dAete_ ion probaibi- ty;& ra k wth, Virgini a 22151.

19. Sqcv. ty Clo,.4. (of this report) 20. Security cloassil. loI this; poge) 21. No. of Poges 22. Prico

UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 280

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction, of completed page uuthorlzed

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7rTABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION. .. .. .......... ........ .......... ........SYSTEMODESCRIPTION...................1GENERAL PROGRAM DESCRITO............. .........3PROGRAM INPUT. .. ........ ........ .......... ...........3AIRCRAFT DATA. .. ...... .......... ........ ...........4LONG LIST DATA .. .. ...... ........ .......... .........7ELEMENT DATA .. .. ...... ........ .......... ...........7FORMAT SPECIFICATIONS .. .... ........ .................11SAMPLE INPUT....................1

PROGRAM OUTPUT. .. .. .......... ........ ........ .......14STANDARD OUTPUT ELEMENT DATA . ... I...... ........ .......14STANDARD OUTPUT SUMMARY DATA .. .. ...... ........ .......28LONGLISTDAATA... .. .. ... .. ........ ........ ...28

APPENDIX A -DETAILED PROGRAM DESCRIPTION......... .34APPENDIX B -MODIFIED PROGRAM SOURCE LISTING... . 9Z

........................................ ..................... .. ............

Bly~y.... ....

..

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INTRODUCTION

The Structural Area Inspection Frequency Evaluation (SAIFE) computerr simulation was developed for the FAA under contract DOT-FA74WA-3493 byTechnology Inc., Dayton, Ohio. The computer program simulates thestructural inspection program of an airline fleet. SAIFE accounts forthe following factors:

1 . Aircraft design analysis

2. Component and full scale fatigue testing3. Production, service and corrosion defects4. Probability of crack or corrosion detection5. Aircraft component repair or modification

The original computer model has been extensively modified by the Engineeringand Manufacturing Branch, Flight Standards National Field Office.Modifications have occurred in program input, simulation logic, andprogram output. Major modifications were:

1. Replacement of the two crack growth rate model by a four crackgrowth rate model.

2. Introduction of sampling at the D-level inspection in thatcertain aircraft receive an internal inspection based upon program inputand program logic.

3. Additional logic to calculate the probability of aircraftfailure based upon crack distribution.

4. Changes to inspection reliability curves which determineprobability of defect detection at a given inspection level.

5. Changes to logic for reducing inspection intervals and schedulingspecial inspections based on crack detection.

During the program modification period Technology Inc. provided supportunder an additional FAA contract.

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION

The eight blocks in Figure I represent the major aspects of the SAIFEsimulation logic. Block 1 accepts input data for the aircraft fleet and

for each structural element in the aircraft. After determining whetherelement modifications are required because of the fatigue test resultsin Block 2, Block 1 assigns a Fatigue life to each element in eachaircraft. Block 3 determines whether production, service, or corrosiondefects will occur; if it is determined that such defects will occur,Block 3 predicts the times when they will occur. After comparing theflight loads with the strength of each element, Block 4 predicts thetime to failure for each element. Block 5 conducts the periodic inspec-tions of each element. If defects are detected, Block 6 repairs theelement and assigns it a new fatigue life. However, if an existingdefect is allowed to grow until element failure, Block 5 deletes theaircraft from the fleet. Depending on the magnitude of the detecteddefects, special inspections and increased inspection frequencies may be

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).U .0

I '"• ' •7MO 2 . • .o•INPUT DATA TO .ENTR _.JGENERAT FATIGUE ]. LFE .BECAUSE OF FATIG.UE

-L .. LIFES I•| TEST FAILURE

'DEFECTS

3.0

REDUCE FATIGUELIFE BECAUSE OF

--4v- PRODUCTION, SERVICEOR CORROSION

DEFECTS

4,0 . .. . REDUCTION

8.0 I

REDUCE STRENGTH

BECAUSE OFCRACK GROWTH

PROJECT TIME TO FAILURE

EPERIENICEISPC

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A/C DELETED FROM FLEETG.O iREPAIR

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EVALUATE

i 7.0

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8.0-SDEVELOP MODS

BECAUSE OF SERVICE[I EXPERIENCE

Figure 1. Mlajor Aspectro of SAIFE Logic

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called for in Block 7 and modifications may be instituted in Block 8.When all the aircraft have been deleted from the fleet or retired fromservice, the simulation is complete.

GENERAL PROGRAM DESCRIPTION

The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulatethe structural performance of an aircraft fleet and the effectiveness ofthe inspection program for the aircraft fleet. The aircraft model inthe computer simulation is divided into structurally significant elementsand the inspection program for each element is defined. Structuraldefects are classified as follows: fatigue and corrosion which arewear-out and aging phenomena; production or design defects; and, opera-tional or maintenance damage. These defects and the inspection programare treated as probabilistic phenomena interacting over time. SIMSCRIPT11.5 (trademark, Consolidated Analysis Centers, Inc., Los Angeles,California), a computer language designed for discrete-event simulationapplications, was chosen for the SAIFE simulation.

SAIFE uses ten random number streams to generate the probabilisticphenomena in the simulation. Because random numbers generation iscomputer word length dependent, different computer systems will generatedifferent random numbers and thus different output for a given set ofinput data. This has been noticed since the computer program has beenrun on both IBM and CDC comiputers. Results may be duplicated on a givencomputer since the compiler initializes the seeds for the random numberstreams to the same value before each run. An option has been incor-porated in the computer program so that the user can input seeds toevaluate independent trials for a given set of input.

Because of the extensive detail, the program events and routines aredescribed in Appendix A,

PROGRAM INPUT

The program input consists of three parts. The first part consists ofinput variables which pertain to the aircraft type under consideration.These variables are input only once per simulation run and are constantfrom element to element. If the user desires to input random numberseeds, the ten seeds are input after the aircraft input. The secondpart of the input consists of long list data if standard output is notused. The third part of the input consists of input variables whosevalues are unique to each element. These variables must be input intheir entirety for each element being simulated.

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AIRCRAFT DATA. The input variables which pertain to the aircraft typeare listed and described below in the order in which they are read inby SAIFE.

MODrLL(*J - This one-dimensional alpha array of size two identifiesthe aircraft type under cunsideration. The total length of thisidentification cannot exceed eight characters.

SIZE.OF.FLEET - This integer variable is the number of aircraft inthe fleet being simulated. The output format requires that thisvariable does not exceed 99999.

USAGE.LIFE - This real variable is the service life in flight hoursof the aircraft being simulated. All aircraft in the fleet musthave the same service life. The output format requ1iies that thisvariable does not excee.d 9999999.

BEGIN.PRODUCTION - This real variable is the time in flight hnur3relative to tI-estart of the simulation when the first aircraftenters service. This variable in conjunction with the input variableSTART.TEST enables the user to start the fatigue test of the elementbefore, after, or at the same time the first aircraft enters service.

PRODUCTION.TIME - This real variable defines the initial aircraftproduction rate. It is the time in flight hours between aircraftentering service.

2.PRODUCTION.TIME - This real variable defines the second aircraftproduction rate. It is the time in flight hours between aircraftentering service.

PRCHG - This real variable is the simulation time when the second"ai-craft production rate takes effect. Note that this time ismeasured from the time that the first aircraft enters service andnot from the start of the simulation.

START.TEST - This real variable is the time in flight hours relativeto the start of the simulation when the fatigue test of an elementis begun. If no fatigue test is to be conducted, this variable isset to the machine upper limit.

TEST.ACCEL.FACT - This real variable is the fatigue test accelerationfactor, that is, the quotient of the equivalent flight hours dividedby the fatigue test hours.

C.GROWTH.RATE - This real variable is the corrosion area growth ratein square inches per hour for the aircraft being considered. Thegrowth rate for each element *in the aircraft is modified by itsassociated CRR (corrosion resistance rating).

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C7f- If a modification is developed because of a fatigue testIfailure, this real variable is the percentage (expressed as a

decimal fraction) of the test life when the inspection frequencyV •is increased.

C28 - This real variable is the percentage (expressed as adeecimal fraction) reduction in the remaining fatigue life of anelement when corrosion occurs in a stress concentration.

C29 - This real variable is the percentage (expressed as adecimal fraction) reduction in the remaining faLigue life ofan element when corrosion occurs outside a stress concentration.

MU.R - This real variable is the mean of the log-normaldistribution of the ratio of the actual average fatigue lifeto the predicted average fatigue life.

SIG.R - This real variable is the standard deviation of thelog-normal distribution of the ratio of the actual averagefatigue life to the predicted average fatigue life.

DLL - This real variable is the design limit load in g's abovethe l-g level.

1ABCD(1) - This real variable is the inspection interval inflight hours of the A-level inspection. It remains constantthroughout the simulation.

lABCD(2) - This real variable is the inspection interval inf- ightours of the B-level inspection. It remains constantthroughout the simulation.

"C- This one-dimensional real array of size four containsthinspection cost at each level of inspection. CABCD(l)corresponds to the A-level cost; CABCD(2) corresponds to theB-level cost; CABCD(3) corresponds to the C-level cost; andCABCD(4) corresponds to the D-level cost.

S.OPT - This alpha variable is "YES" if the random number seedsar-eto be input; it is "NO" if seeds are not input.LONG.LIST - This alpha variable is "NO" if standard output andSfor detailed output on particular aircraft. (LONG LIST

DATA).

FAIL.OPT - This integer variable is "1" for output of probabilityof failure that is based on averaging individual element failurerates to obtain element type failure rates. This integer variableis "2" for output of probability of failure that is based on usinga log-normal crack distribution and a curve fit of probability offailure versus crack length to obtain element type fellure rates.This integer variable is "3" if both options are desired.

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FAT. TEST.FACTOR- This real variable is the probability ofa fatigue test being done on the structural element. Thisreal variable is compared with a random number to determine ifthe fatigue test is done. If the fatigue test is not done,the fatigue test life is set to 9999999.

ACTUAL.AVG. FAT. LIFE - This real variable is the actual averagefatigue life in flfght hours determined by fatigue test. Ifthis value is not known, input zero and SAIFE will determineit statistically.

LEAD.TIME - This real variable is the time in flight hoursb•etween when a decision is made to develop a structuralmodification and the time the modification is available forinstallation.

T.FREQ.CHG - This real variable is the percentage expressedas a decimal fraction that the D-level inspection interval isreduced due to a fatigue test failure.

S.FREQ.CHG - This real variable is the percentage expressedas a decimal fraction that the D-level inspection interval isreduced due to service experience.

FREQ.DECREASE - This real variable is the percentage expressedas a decimal fraction that the C and D-level inspectionintervals are increased due to favorable service experience.

A. REPAIR.COST - This real variable is the repair cost at theA-level inspection.

B.REPAIR. COST - This real variable is the repair cost at theB-level inspection.

C.REPAIR.COST - This real variable is the repair cost at theC-level inspection.

D.REPAIR.COST - This real variable is the repair cost at theD-level inspection.

1ST.TOOLING - This real variable is the tooling cost of thefirst structural modification.

AD.TOOLING - This real is the tooling cost in the developmentof any additional structural modifications.

IST.MD.COST - This real variable is the installation cost ofthe first structural modification.

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AD.MD.COSI - This real variable is the installation cost ofany additional structural modification.

S.REPAIR.COST - This real variable is the repair cost of adefect detected during a special inspection.

SU - This real variable is the element ultimate strength inTs above the l-g level.

SF - This real variable is the element fail safe strength in7s above the l-g level.

S1 - S10 - These integer variables are the ten random numberseeds and are input only if S.0PT - "YES". Any integer valuemay be used as input.

LONG LIST DATA. Occasionally in the standard output, elements will appearwith unusually long fatigue cracks or early element failures. It isdesirable to have a more complete service history of aircraft with theseearly element failures than that offered by the standard output. Thisservice history is available through what is called the long list option.This output option is accessed by reading in alpha characters "YES" forthe aircraft input variable LONG.LIST. After this input, the elementdescription and identification numbers of the aircraft to be tracked areread in. The input variables for the long list option are listed anddescribed below in the order in which they are read in by SAIFE.

NOE - ThiF integer variable is the number of elements to beprocessed under the long list option.

ELID(*,* - This two-dimensional alpha array of size four byNOE identifies each element to be processed. This identifica-tion must appear in the first sixteen columns of the data cardand must be identical to the description read into the variableELEMENT(*) described in ELEMENT DATA.

NOAC(*) This one-dimensional integer array of size NOE is thenumber of aircraft to be tracked for each corresponding element.

TLID_*,_,_ - This two-dimensional integer array of size NOE byJ

R(C-) -contains the identification numbers of the aircraft tobe tracked for a particular element.

ELEMENT DATA. The input variables which are unique to each element andmust be read in for each element are listed and described below in theorder in which they are read in by SAIFE.

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ELEMENT(*) - This one-dimensional alpha array of size fouridentifies the element being simulated. The total lengthof this identification cannot exceed sixteen characters.The SAIFE program distinguishes between elements that arepressure loaded and flight loaded. Elements that are pressureloaded must start with characters FUS- and have MFR- ascharacters five through eight or FRM- as characters ninethrough twelve. Any characters can be used for the flightloaded elements.

PREDICTED.LIFE - This real variable is the average elementfatigue life in flight hours predicted by analysis. If theactual average fatigue life is known, this variable can beentered as zero.

MI.MEAN - This real variable is the average first externalcrac! growth rate in inches per flight hour.

M2.MEAN - This real variable is the average second externalcrack growth rate in inches per flight hour.

LGHT.TO.FAILURE - This real variable is the length in inchesat which the crack reaches failure under a l-g load

CONE - This real variable is the crack length in inches atw-h'ich the first external crack growth rate changes to thesecond external crack growth rate. (First external criticalcrack length).

FSAF.LGT - This real variable is the length in inches at whichthe crack reaches the fail-safe length.

BIRTH.DEFECT.PROBABILITY - This real variable is the probabilityof a production defect.

CRR - This integer variable is the corrosion resistance rating.

SDM.OCCURRENCE.RATE - This real variable is the occurrencerate of service damage per element per aircraft per flighthour.

I.PROB - This real variable is the probability of crackserriginating internally.

C.PROB - This real variable is the probability of corrosionoriginating internally.

INT.LVL.INSP - This alpha variable is the letter identifyingthe lowest internal level inspection.

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EXT.LVL.INSP - This alpha variable is the letter identifyingthe lowest external level inspection.

MOD.TEST - This alpha variable is input as "YES" if astructural modification is to be fatigue tested. Otherwiseit is input as "NO".

LOCATED. IN.STRESS.CON - This real variable is the probabilitythat there is corrosion in a stress concentration.

1ICDM.OCCURRENCE.RATE - This real variable is the initialcorrosion occurrence rate in occurrences per element peraircraft per flight hour.

2.CDM.OCCURRENCE.RATE - This real variable is the secondcorrosion occurrence rate in occurrences per element peraircraft per flight hour.

CDM.RATE.CHANGE - This real variable is the aircraft servicetime in flight'-hours when the second corrosion occurrencerate takes effect.

L.EXT - This real variable is the length in inches at whicha crack originating internally becomes external.

M3.MEAN - This real variable is the average third externalr-a-cTgrowth rate in inches per flight hour.

M4.MEAN - This real variable is the average fourth externalcrack growth rate in inches per flight hour.

CTWO - This real variable is the crack length in inches atwihh the second external crack growth rate changes to thethird external crack growth rate. (Second external criticalcrack length).

CTHREE - This real variable is the length in inches at whichthe third external crack growth rate changes to the fourthexternal crack growth rate. (Third external critical cracklength).

INT.CONE - This real variable is the length in inches at whichthe first internal crack growth rate changes to the secondinternal crack growth rate. (First internal critical cracklength).

INT.CTWO - This real variable is the length in inches at whichthe second internal crack growth rate changes to the thirdinternal crack growth rate. (Second internal critical cracklength).

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IN.CTHREE - This real variable is the length in inches atwhich the third internal crack growth rate changes to thefourth internal crack growth rate. (Third internalcritical crack length).

I- This real variable is the initial inspection7ntervil in flight hours of the C-level inspection.

1 D - This real variable is the initial inspectioninterva7 in flight hours of the D-level inspection.

POP.SIZE - This integer variable is the number of elementsof the s ame type on the aircraft. It is not necessary toinput all elements of the same type. A sampling may beused and SAIFE will extrapolate the probability of failurecalculation to the total number of elements actually in theaircraft.

AMEAN - This real variable is the result of fitting anexponential curve to flight or pressure load exceedancedata. AMEAN*exp(BL) is the number of loads per hour whichexceed the load level (L).

B - This real variable is the result of fitting an exponentialcurve to flight or pressure load exceedance data. AMEAN*exp(BL)is the number of loads per hour which exceed the load level (L).

I

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FORMAT SPECIFICATIONS. Most of the input data are entered into SAIFE bythe free-form read statement. The program has only three formatted readstatements.

The aircraft type identification, the alpha array MODEL, is enteredunder the format specifications 2A4. This identification must be containedI in the first eight columns of the first card of the Aircraft Input Data.All subsequent data in this section can appear in any columns and on asmany cards as desired. All input values must be separated from oneanother by at least one blank column and a value cannot be continued onthe next card.

The element identification alpha array ELID is entered under the formatspecification 4A4. This identification must be contained in the firstsixteen columns of the long list element data card. Subsequent data canappear in any column and on as many cards as desired. When a secondelement is to be identified, its description must again appear in thefirst sixteen columns of the data card.

The element identification alpha array ELEMENT is entered under theformat specification 4A4. This identification must be contained in thefirst sixteen columns of the first card of each set of Element InputData. As in the Aircraft Input Data, all subsequent data in thissection can appear in any columns and on as many cards as desired.

SAMPLE INPUT. Sample input data consisting of aircraft input data andfour sets of element input data are illustrated in Figure 2. Theaircraft type identification is HYBRID. The four cards immediatelyfollowing the aircraft type contain the aircraft input data. Theelement input data begins immediately after the element identificationon the same card and terminates on the last card before the next elementid, itification. The card following the last set of element input datamust contain EOD in the first three columns. Note this input is forstandard output since LONG.LIST = "NO".Sample input data to obtainlong list output on the last element (FUS-

MRF-SID-1740) of the sample case are shown in Figure 3. Long list dataare requested on aircrafts 148 and 162. In this case we are duplicatingthe output of the sample case in Figure 2 by inputting the random numberseeds appropriate to element FUS-MFR-SID-1740. Note that S.OPT = "YES"and LONG.LIST = "YES" in the aircraft data in Figure 3. The ten randomnumber seeds follow the aircraft data. Next comes the long list dataand finally the element data. Element output can be duplicated on agiven element without rerunning all the elements ahead of the desiredelement by using the random number seed option.

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Page 19: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 20: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

PROGRAM OUTPUT

Each element to be simulated by SAIFE is identified by three groups ofalpha characters and one group of nuumeric characters. The alpha charactersdefine the basic element type and general location on the aircraft, andthe numeric characters define the specific location of the element byidentifying the wing or fuselage station number. For example, anelement identified as WNG-STR-CEN-396 would be a wing stringer locatedmidway between the front and rear spars and centered at wing station396.

The standard program output consists of two parts. The first partconsists of the simulation results for each specific element. This partis printed for each set of element input data. The second part consistsof a sunriiary of the first parts for an element type. In the examplediscussed above, WNG-STR-CEN identifies the element type. Whenever theprogram encounters a set of element input data in which any singlecharacter of the three groups of alpha characters differs from those inthe previous set of element input data, a summary is printed.

The program also has a long list form of output. This output consistsof a detailed time history of individual elements and aircraft. Thisform of output would generally be used after a standard output has beenobtained on element data. Generally, only the elements that long listoutput is desired on is rerun using the seed option to input the appropriaterandom number seeds for the desired elements.

STANDARD OUTPUT, ELEMENT DATA. Figure 4 illustrates the standard output Vfor the input shown in Figure 2. The random number seeds and aircraftnumbers for aircraft having corrosion, production defects, and servicedamage are printed on the first page. The random number seeds are theinitial seeds for each element. Since the initial seeds for an elementare dependent on the history of the preceding element, it is necessaryto know the initial element seeds, if one wanted to duplicate a particular Ielement without rerunning all the previous elements.

On the next page, the aircraft type identification, number of aircraftin the fleet, aircraft service life, structural element identification,predicted average fatigue life, actual average fatigue life, and fatiguetest life are printed at the top of the page.

The number of occurrences in the fleet and the times to initiation ofthe four types of aircraft defects considered by SAIFE are displayednext. Whenever there is a fatigue crack initiation and there are noother cracks in the element, a first carck is said to have occurred. Asingle element can experience more than one first crack in its lifetimeby having a crack initiation after a repair. Similarly, there can bemore than one occurrence of corrosion and service damage defect to existsimultaneously in the same element.

14-

Page 21: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 22: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 23: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 24: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 25: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 26: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 27: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 28: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 29: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 30: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 31: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 32: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

r An

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Page 33: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

iIProduction defects are one-time occurrences unless there is a structuralmodification installed. These, too, can have production defects. Thetimes to defect initiation are measured from the time when the aircraftenters service for the initial defects and from the time when theaircraft was last repaired for subsequent defects.

Next, the number and lengths of cracks detected in the fleet at each levelof inspection are printed. These numbers include second crack detections.Following the crack detection output are the number and areas of corrosiondefects detected in the fleet at each level in inspection. A historyof the inspection interval changes is printed next, Each time that theaircraft service experience indicates that either an interval increaseor an interval decrease is needed, the new interval values are printed.The history of the inspection intervals includes the modification ineffect at a given interval, the D-level internal sampling change, and thetime the interval changed. A modification number of 0 indicates the elementwas not modified. Although the number of interval changes allowed in thesimulation is unlimited, the output array size limits the number printed to30.

A table of crack lengths versus cumulative probability of failure isprinted next. This table includes aircraft number, flight hours, cracklength, and probability of failure. Flight hours equal to the servicetime indicate that the crack was never detected or repaired. Times otherthan this indicate when the crack was repaired or a modification wasinstalled.

The number of fleet-wide special inspections performed is printed next.Next, the number of structural modifications developed is printed. Thisnumber includes modifications because of fatigue test failures or aircraftservice experience. The final actual average fatigue life is printed next.If there have been no modifications, this number will be the same as that atthe top of the page. If there have been modifications, this number is theactUdl average fatigue life of the most recently developed modification.

Shown next is the number of aircraft modified in service. If the onlymodification developed was due to a fatigue test failure, this number canbe zero if the test life was such that retrofits were not required. Ifthere were more than one modification requiring retrofits, this number canbe greater than the size of the fleet. Printed next is the element failurerate. Finally, each time an aircraft experiences structural failure orits residual strength reaches its fail-safe strength, the aircraft numberand the number of accrued flight hours are printed. The aircraft numberis assigned by its relative time of entry into service. Aircraft No. Iis the first aircraft to enter service.

- 27 -

, :1

Page 34: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

~I

STANDARD OUTPUT SUMMARY DATA. A summary is shown in Figure 4 after

the element output. Number and time to initiation of aircraftdefects, number and length of cracks detected at each level ofinspection, number and area of corrosion defects detected at eachlevel of inspection, initial, mini num and maximum Inspection intervals,number of special inspection conducted, number of structural modifica-tions, number of aircraf- modified in service, structural failures,and fail safe lengths are summaries of the element data output. Alsoincluded is the element type failure rate. Element type failure ratecar) be calculated by two methods. One is by simply taking the averageof the individual element failure rates and multiplying by the totalelement type POP.SIZE. The other method uses a log normal distributionto generate additional cracks to account for the POP.SIZE. Theprobability of failure from the additional cracks is obtained from asemi-log curve fit of crack length versus probability of failure forthe existing input elements of the element type. The constants of thecurve fit and the mean and standard deviation of the crack lengthsare shown. The output of the type of probability of failurecalculation is dependent on the input quantity FAIL.OPT.

After the last element summary, the aircraft failure rate is printed.The aircraft failure rate is based on pressure and flight loadedstructure. Two types of failure rates can be printed, depending onthe input quantity FAIL.OPT. Next the five maximum crack lengthsdivided by the fail-safe length are printed for flight and pressureloaded structure and the two failure options. The cracks based onaveraging are weighted by the POP.SIZE divided by the total numberof element types that are input. Thus, the same crack may appear morethan once for the averaging option. Cracks based on the curve fitoption include both the cracks that occur in the structural elementand additional cracks that are generated to account for POP.SIZE.Finally, a failure summary is printed.

LONG LIST DATA. If the long list option is used, a detailed timehTstory of elements and aircraft are printed. A long list printoutfor the input in Figure 3 is shown in Figure 5. Long list printinformation is contained in the following events and routines:

| 1. , . ...

T ' • ' " l... i i i i " i i -- - • - '' " i• • i• -- J

Page 35: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

1.- Event ENTLR.SERVICE2. Routine INSTALL.M'ODIFICATION3. Event IN.SERVICE.DAMAGE

k"4. Event CORROSION5. Event 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION6. Event 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION7. Event 1.ITE8. Event 2.ITE9. Event D.LEVEL. INSPECTION

10. Routine EXAMINE11. Event REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT12. Event FAILURE13. Event RETIRE.FROM.SERVICE14. Event REPAIR15. Event T.INSPECTION.INCREASE16. Event INCREASE. INSPECTION.PREQUENCYI17. Event IMMEDIATE.FLEET.INSPECTION18. Event DF.CISION.ON.MODj19. Event IMPLEMENT.MODIFICATION

-29-

Page 36: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 37: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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Page 38: REPORT NO. FAA-RD-78-29, IV Book 2, LEVW · 1$ Sypolormqatary Notes ... The SAIFE program is a large, complex math model designed to simulate the structural performance of an aircraft

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APPENDIX A

DETAILED PROGRAM DESCRIPTION

In the following detailed description of the SAIFE program, each eventand routine in the program is presented separately. Each presentationconsists of a description, the definition of the local variables, ifany, and major logic steps including subroutine calls and event schedulingas necessary. All events, subroutines, and variables are capitalized.

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APPENDIX A

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section Page

1. PREAMBLE ......... .................. 362. MAIN ........... ................ .463. INITIALIZATION .... ............... .. 474. SUM.INITIALIZE .... ............... .. 485. COMP.RISK .. ................. 496. ESTIMATE.FAILURE.RATE . ........... 517. REAL.LIFE ........ ................. 528. ENTER.SERVICE ........ ............... 539. FATIGUE.LIFE.SCATTER .... ........... .. 55

10. INSTALL.MODIFICATION .... ............ .. 5611. IN.SERVICE.DAMAGE ....... ............. 5712 T.IMPLEMENT.MOD. ....... ..... ........ 5813. PREEDICT.SERVICE.DAMAGE ... .......... ... 5914. PREDICT.CORROSION ....... ............. 6015. CORROSION ........ ............... .. 6116. RATE .......................... 6217. I.STRENGTH.REDUCTION .. 6318. 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION .... ............ .. 6519. I.ITE ....... ................. .... 6720. 2.ITE .......... ........... ...... 6821. INSPECTION.SCHEDULER ..... ............ 6922. A.LEVEL.INSPECTION .... ............ ... 7023. B.LEVEL.INSPECTION .... ............ ... 7124. C.LEVEL.INSPECTION .... ............. ... 7225. D.LEVEL.INSPECTION .... ............. ... 7326. EXAMINE .......... .................. 7527. PODD ...... 7728. CANCEL.SCHEDULED. INSPECTIONS.............. 7829. REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT .... ........... ... 7930. FAILURE ....... .................. ... 8031. RETIRE.FROM.SERVICE .... ............ .. 8132. REPAIR ....... ................... 8233. T.INSPECTION.INCREASE ..... ........... 8434. INCREASE.INSPECTIONFREQUENCY ......... ... 8535. IMMEDIATE. FLEET. INSPECTION .... ......... 8636. DECISION.ON.MOD ..... .............. .. 8837. IMPLEMENT.MODIFICATION ...... ......... 8938. DISPLAY.OUTPUT .... ............... .. 9039. SUMMARY ....... ................. ... 91

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PREAMBLE

DESCRIPTION - The PREAMBLE is the definition section of a SIMSCRIPTprogram. All global variables and global arrays are defined. Temporaryentities are defined and tally statistics are identified. Eventnotices and functions are defined and an event priority order is set.Global variables which are input variables are not included here butcan be found in the input section.

Global Real Variables

FLEET.STR.RED - This variable is the sum of.crack lengths found inthe fleet since the last inspection frequency change.

lAAFL - This variable is the actual average fatigue life of theelement design determined in the MAIN program.

CRRF - Assigned a value in routine INITIALIZATION according tothe element corrosion resistance rating, this variable ismultiplied by the aircraft corrosion growth rate to give the elementcorrosion growth rate.

COST.OF.REPAIRS - This variable is the sum of repair costs for thefleet since the last modification.

FIXIT.COST - This variable is the cost of repairing a defect foundat a particular inspection level. Its value is set in the inspectionevents.

CHG.FREQ.TIME - This variable is set equal to TIME.V whenever aninspection interval change is scheduled in the event REPAIR.

ICRKT - Each time a first crack occurs, this variable is set equal-to--he service time on the aircraft.

ICORT - Each time corrosion occurs, this variabl'e is set equal tosiervice time on the aircraft.

ISDT -Each time service damage occurs, this variable is set equalftohe service time on the aircraft.

ACRKL, BCRKI., CCRKL, DCRKL, SCRKL - Each time a crack is found duringan A-level, B-level, C-level, D-Tevel, or Special inspection,the corresponding variable is set equal to the crack length.

ACA, SCA, CCA, DCA, SCA - Each time corrosion is found during anA 1-1eve l,, B-level, C-level, D-level, or Special inspection, thecorresponding variable is set equal to the corrosion area.

A-level.B-levl C l 0e , or S l in , t

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AIRFRAME.TIME - This variable is the number, of flight hours accumulated"sInTce thelast modification for aircraft no longer in service,

G•GCRK - Each time a first crack occurs, this variable is set equal to theservice time on the aircraft.

GICOR - Each time corrosion occurs, this variable is set equal to thet. Fservice time on the aircraft.

GISD - Each time service damage occurs, this variable is set equal to the'service time on the aircraft.

GACRK, GBCRK, GCCRK, GDCRK, GSCRK - Each time a crack is found during an A-level, B-level, C-level, D-level, or Special inspection, the correspondingvariable is set equal to the crack length.

GACA, GBCA, GCCA, GDCA, GSCA - Each time corrosion is found during an A-leviel, B-level', C-level, D-level, or special inspection, the correspondingvariable is set equal to the corrosion area.

CINSL, DINSL - Each time there is an inspection interval change, thesevariables are set equal to the C-level and D-level intervals, respectively.ABC.OLD - This variable is used to store the value of the C-level inspectioninterval prior to a interval reduction.

ABCD.OLD.D - This variable is used to store the value of the D-levelinspection interval prior to an interval reduction.

t SAMP.SIZE - This variable is the number of elements of an element type thatis input.

LAMDA - This variable is used to store intermediate data in calculating theaircraft failure rate.

ELTYP.FAIL.RATE - This variable is the element type failure rate.AC.FAIL.RATE - This variable is the aircraft failure rate due to flightloads.

AP.FAIL.RATE - This variable is the aircraft failure rate due to pressureloads.

SDIF - This variable is used to store element residual strength.

RLGT - This variable is used to store crack lengths in calculatingeTFe-Tent residual strength reduction rates.

AEXP- This variable is the result of fitting a curve AEXP*EXP(BA*CL) tocrack length versus probability of failure.

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I BA - This variable is the result of fitting a curve AEXP*EXP(BA*CL)to the crack length versus probability of failure.

AVGL - This variable is the average of element type crack lengths.STDL - This variable is the standard deviation of element type

crack lengths.

The global integer variables are listed next. Again, inputvariables are not included in this list.

Global Integer Variables

ID - In each event and routine, this variable is the identificationn-umber of the aircraft being processed.

IDCK - This variable is initialized to zero and incremented by i.one each time an aircraft enters service.

I - This variable is used as a local index or array subscript indifferent locations in the program.

COUNT.ELEMENT - Each time new element data is read in, this variableis incremented by one. iNICHG - This variable is the number of times that the inspection

intervals have changed.

LHTA - This variable is the identification number of the aircraftamong the ten high-time aircraft with the fewest flight hours.

I.NUM.OF.RETIRE - This variable is the number of aircraft thathave been retired from service.

2.NUM.OF.CRASH - This variable is the number of aircraft whichhave been removed from service because of structural failure.

XTRNL - This variable is the nurmeric identification of the lowestinternal level of inspection.

EXT. INSP.LEVEL - This variable is the numeric identification ofthe lowest external level of inspection.

LIL, LEL - These variables are the numeric identifications of the-owes-tinternal and external levels of inspection, respectively.

If either of these variables is less than three, it is set equalto three.

TO.BE.MODIFIED - This variable is the number of aircraft witha pending retrofit modification.

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rr

[; •' BEEN.MODIFIED - This variable is the number of aircraft that have'had a current retrofit modification installed.

FDCK - This variable is the number of aircraft in service wheni -modification is implemented because of a fatigue test failure.

01CR OCOR, OSDM, OPD - These variables are the number of occurrences6 -fTirst-craks, corrosion, service damage, and production defects,respectively, for a particular element.

OSCR, OSCO - These variables are the number of cracks and corrosiondefects, respectively, detected during a special inspection for aparticular element.,

NSIC - This variable is the number of special inspections conductedfor a particular element.NSMD - This variable is the number of aircraft modified in service

for a particular element. 1

NSFL - This variable is the number of aircraft experiencingstructural failure for a particular element. A

NMD - This variable is the number of structural modificationsma-e on a particular element.

NRFS - This variable is the number of aircraft with the residualstrength for a particular element reaching the fail-safe strength.

SNRFS - This variable is the number of aircraft with the residualstrength for a particular element type reaching the fail-safestrength.

J -. This variable is used as a local index or array subscript indifferent locations in the program.

LDX - If the long list option is in effect, this variable is theascending sequential position of the element being processedamong those elements read in under the long list option.

GOICR, GOCR, GOSDM - These variables are the number of occurrencesof first cracks, corrosion damage, and service damage,respectively, for a particular element type.

GOSCR, GOSCO - These variables are the number of cracks and corrosiondefects, respectively, detected during a special inspection for aparticular element type.

GOPD - This variable is the number of occurrences of productiondeTe-cts for a particular element type.

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SNSIC - This variable is the number of special inspections conducted fora particular element type.

SNMD - This variable is the number of structural modifications made on aparticular element type.

SNSMD - This variable is the number of aircraft modified in service for apa-rTcular element type.

SNSFL - This variable is the number of aircraft experiencing structuralfailure for a particular element type.

CR.CTR - This variable counts the number of detected cracks.

OLD.SAMP - This variable stores the value of D-level internal samplingprior to an interval reduction.

MOD.NO - This variable counts the number of structural modifications foreach element.

NCZ - This variable is used as a counter in calculating the probabilityoTfailure.

NCZO - This variable is used as a counter in calculating the probabilityofa ailure.

NTIME - This variable is the number of times an inspection interval changeoccurs.

SAMPLING - This variable is the sampling at the internal D-level inspection.For a sampling of 4, aircrafts 1, 5, 9 ... receive internal inspections ontheir first D-level inspection. Aircrafts 2, 6, 10... receive internalInspections on their second D-level inspection. Sampling is iniLializedto 48000 divided by IABCD(4).

Alpha Variables

TES.FAILURE - This variable is set to YES if there is a fatigue testfailure.

PREVIOUSLY.MODIFIED - This variable is set to YES if an element has been""modified.

IMP.MOD.SCH - This variable is set to YES if the event IMPLEMENT.MODIFICATIONis scheduled.

LTHO - This variable is set to YES if LONG.LIST is input as YES.

DEC.ON.MOD.SCH - This variable is set to YES if event DECISION.ON.MOD isscheduled.

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SELl, SEL2 SEL3 - These variables contain parts of the element name andare used t distinguish between pressure loaded and flight loaded structures.

SM.CRK - This variable is set equal to NO if a large crack occurs and YESi-f-a-small crack occurs.

PRIOR.CR - This variable is set equal to YES when more than one crackoccurs in an element.

DEC. INT - This variable is set equal to YES when an interval decrease isscheduled.

D.INT. FIND - This variable is set equal to YES if a crack is found in aninterval D-level inspection.

DONE - This variable is set equal to YES when the inspection interval isfirst reduced.

IFLAG - This variable is set equal to YES when the inspection intervalsTi educed due to a fatigue test failure.

Real Arrays

C.INTERVAL, D. INTERVAL- The elements of these arrays are the currentMevel and D-level inspection intervals for each aircraft In the fleet.

ABCD - This array is of size four and contains the most recent intervals-o"F-each of the four levels of inspection.

CKREP.TIME - This array is the simulation time of the most recent crackrepair for each aircraft.

COREP.TIME - This array is the simulation time of the most recent corrosionrepair for each aircraft.

LAST.SD - This array is the simulation time of the most recent occurrenceof-service damage for each aircraft.

OCCUR.MOD - This array is the simulation time when the most recentdTification was installed for each aircraft.

SC, SD - These arrays contain each of the inspection interval changes forthe C-level and D-level, respectively.

XRN - This array is the random number selected to calculate the time untilstructural failure for each aircraft.

MRDD - This array is the simulation time of the most recently detecteddefect at all inspection levels for each of the ten-high aircraft.

CGRI - This array is the corrosion multiplying factor for each aircraft.

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MSRl, MFRl, MSR2, MFR2, MSRI.INT, MFRI.INT, MSR2.INT MFR2.INT - Thesevariables are the n•d-vidual element crack gro rates. There are fourexternal rates and four internal rates.

INT.LGT - Elements of this array are set equal to L.EXT for aircraftwhose cracks originate internally. They remain zero for aircraft whosecracks originate externally.

SRRATE - This array contains the aircraft strength reduction rates.

T.LAST.D - This array contains the last D-level inspection intervalsinmiulFTon time.

TRCHG - This array contains times used in the calculation of probabilityofilure.

CLGT - This array contains the length of all element type cracks.

AFACT - This array contains a loading spectrum value drawn from a lognormal distribution of AMEAN and divided by AMEAN for each aircraft.

CHG.TIME - This array records the times changes are made in theinspe-tion intervals.

FSAVE - This array 4s used to save the five largest cracks on flightlooaded structure based on failure option 2.

PSAVE - This array is used to save the five largest cracks on pressurelToaded structure based on failure option 2.

AVFSA - This array is used to save the five largest cracks on flightTloade-d structure based on failure option 1.

AVPSA - This array is used to save the five largest cracks on pressureTo-a-d-ed structure based on failure optionl.

The following are the integer arrays. Again, unless otherwise noted,all arrays are 1-dimensional and input arrays are not included.

Integer Arrays

AISR, A2SR - These arrays contain the event notice identification numbersfor each aircraft for the events I.STRENGTH.REDUCTION, and 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION, respectively.

"AF - This array is the event notice identification number for each aircraftfor event FAILURE.

AIRPLANE - This array is the temporary entity identification number foreach aircraft.

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AAL, ABL, ACL, ADL - These arrays are the event notice identification""numbers f- ai)ircraft for the events A.LEVEL.INSPECTION, B.LEVEL.INSPECTION, C.LEVEL. INSPECTION, and D.LEVEL. INSPECTION, respectively.

AC, ATII - These arrays are the event notice identification numbers fore aircraft for events COROSION and T.INSPECTION.INCREASE, respectively.

ACIU - This array contains the identification numbers of those aircraftexperiencing structural failure for a particular element.

OICRY OICO - These arrays are the number of cracks and corrosion defects,respectively, detected at each of the four levels of inspection for aparticular element.

SACID - This array contains the identification numbers of those aircraftexperiencing structural failure for a particular element type.

GOICR, GOICO - These arrays are the number of cracks and corrosiondefects, respectively, detected at each of the four levels of inspectionfor a particular element type.

HI.TIME.ACRFT - This array contains the identification numbers of thetene•high_-t-i-ie aircraft.

APID - This array contains the identification numbers of those aircraftw-T'ta particular element whose residual strength has reached the fail-safe strength.

SAPID - This array contains the identification numbers of those aircraft

w-'it-a particular element type whose residual strength has reached thefail-safe strength.

STIM - This array contains the flight hours on each aircraft when theresidual strength for a particular element reaches the fail-safe strength.

SSTIM - This array contains the flight hours on each aircraft when theresidual strength for a particular element type reaches the fail-safestrength.

.__FLTHR - This array contains the flight hours on each aircraft whenstruictural failure occurs for a particular element.

SFLTHR - This array contains the flight hours on each aircraft whenstructural failure occurs for a particular element type.

ARFSL - This array is the event notice identification number'for eachaircraft for event REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT.

AlE, A2E - These arrays are the event notice identification numbers foreach aircraft for events L.ITE, 2.ITE, respectively.

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D.IN - This array is used in determining which aircraft receive ann-t-ernal D-level inspection.

SAMP - This array contains the sampling used at different inspectionintervals.

MOD.CTR - This array counts the number of modifications for eachaicat.

MOD.SAVE - This array contains the modification at each differentinspection interval.

PFID - This array contains the aircraft number for aircraft that havecracks.

PFTIM - This array contains the time on the aircraft for cracks usedto calculate probability of failure.

The global alpha arrays are listed next. As before, input arrays arenot included in this list.

Global Alpha Arrays

I.CR.EXISTS, 2.CR.EXISTS - The elements of these arrays are set equal to"Y "for each aircraft whenever there is a first and second initiation,respectively.

CO.EXISTS - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft when ithas corrosion initiation.

SD.SCH - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft that hasevent IN.SERVICE.DAMAGE scheduled.

SSTAN - This array is the station-number which identifies each aircraftexpe-riencing the failure of a particular element type.

SELNB - This array is the station number which identifies each aircraftw---Fa particular element type whose residual strength has reached thefail-safe strength.

AIL, FSH - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft whenevents REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT and FAILURE, respectively, are scheduled.

IEl iE2 - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft that hasevenT. ITE and 2.ITE, respectively, scheduled.

TMOD.PENDING - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft thathas a modifTcation pending because of a fatigue test failure.

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SMOD.PENDING - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft thathas a modification pending because of service experience.

INSP.SCH - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft that hasinspecti'ons below the overhaul level scheduled.

.NINT - These arrays are set equal to "YES" for each aircraftthtaa first crack or second crack, respectively, initiated internally.

C.INT - This array is set equal to "YES" for each aircraft that hascorrosion initiated internally.

D.EXT - The appropriate element of this array is set equal to YES whenan aTrcraft receives a D-level external inspection.

El, E2, E3, E4 - These arrays are used to store the names of structuralelements that have aircraft failures.

The temporary entity definitions and tally statements are self-explanatory.The events, functions, and routines are described in detail in thefollowing sections.

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MAIN

DESCRIPTION - In the MAIN program, space is reserved for all global arrays.Thle following operations are performed in the order given: all input dataare read in; the actual average fatigue life of the element is calculated;the fatigue test life is calculated; the necessity of a structural nodifi-cation because of a fatigue test failure is determined; the element typefailure rate is calculated; the first event ENTER.SERVICE is scheduled;and the simulation is initiated.

Local Variables

FIRST.LIFE - This real variable is the fatigue test life in flight hours.

NFTS - This real variable is the time in flight hours from which thesec'ond production rate goes into effect to when the last aircraft entersservice.

PE - This real variable is used to store intermediate values to calculateTFobability of failure.

PROB - This real variable is used to store intermediate Values tocal-culate probability of failure.

SAIL -. This real variable is the earliest simulation time at which astr'uctural modification because of a fatigue test failure is ready forinstallation.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Reserve aircraft arrays.2. Read input data.3. Call SUM.INITIALIZE.4. Call INITIALIZATION.5. If new elelemnt type data:

a. Call ESTIMATE.FAILURE.RATE.b. Call SUMMARY.

6 If actual average fatigue life is 0: (Call REAL.LIFE).7. Calculate fatigue test life (Call FATIGUE.LIFE.SCATTER).8. If fatigue test failure (Schedule T.IMPLEMENT.MOD).9. Start simulation.

10. Call DISPLAY.OUTPUT.11. Read new element data.12. If EOJ STOP.

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ROUTINE INITIALIZATION

DESCRIPTION This routine is called immediately after reading each newset of element input by the MAIN program. This routine changes the inspection

level codes to numeric values, sets the corrosion growth multiplyingfactor based on the corrosion resistance rating, and resets the tallycounters. It also initializes all the element global variables which arenot part of the input.

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ROUTINE SUM.INITIALIZE

DESCRIPTION - This routine is called from the MAIN program each time a newelement type is read in. The element type is identified by the firsttwelve characters of the element identification. This routine initializesthe global variables and rests the tally counters.

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ROUTINE COMP.RISK

DESCRIPTION - This routine determines the probability of failure due to affirsft or second crack. Failure due to a first crack is based on a fivepart strength reduction cuirve and failure due to a second crack is basedon a nine part strength reduction curve. If a second crack exists thelength relationships of the first and second crack must be determined.These are dependent on the three critical crack lengths and the four crackgrowth rates. The logic for testing all the combinations of first crackcritical lengths to second crack critical lengths is lengthy. Thisroutine is called from routine INSTALL.MODIFICATION and events CORROSION,2.STRENGTH.REDUCTI.ON, REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT, FAILURE, RETIRE.FROM.SERVICEand REPAIR.

Local Variables

A - This real variable is obtained for each aircraft from a log-normal3istribution defined by AMEAN.

AZRD - This real variable is used to store intermediate values in calculat-Tii-the probability of failure.

CCLI, CCL2, CCL3 - These real variables are the first, second, and third

critical crackengths.

CL - This real variable is the sum of the first and second crack lengths.

CLI, CL2 - These real variables are the first and second crack lengths.

DLCI DLI, DL2 - These real variables are used to store intermediatevales in calculating first and second crack length.Kl14, K15, Kl6, KIT7, Kl8, KI9, K20, K21, K22,K23 K24, K25, K26, K27 -

*l T-he- rea• variables are used to store intermediate results in calculatingthe probability of failure.

RS - This real variable is the residual strength of an element.

SR, SRI, SR2, SR3, SR4, SR5, SR6, SR7 - These real variables are strengthreduction rates.

Sl, S2, S3, $4, S5, S6 - These real variables are strength reductions at

th•-three critica-_crack lengths for the two cracks.

TAC - This real variable is the simulation time to corrosion initiation.

TAl - This real variable is the simulation time to the first crack initia-

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TA2- This real variable is the simulation time to the second crack initia-t_-_n.

T, TI, Tll, T12, T2, T21, T22, T23, T3, T4, T5, T6 - These real variablesare intermediate time variables used in calculating the probability offailure.

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ROUTINE ESTIMATE.FAILURE.RATE

DESCRIPTION - This routine determines the failure rate of an element type.his routine fits a semi-log curve to crack length versus probability of

failure for all cracks that occur in the individual elements of theelement type. If a sample of elements is used, the routine determinesthe average number of cracks per element and extrapolates the totalnumber of cracks to the actual element population. The additional cracksare generated with a log-normal distribution using the mean and standarddeviation of the cracks in the element sample. The probability offailure:of the additional cracks is determined from the curve fit ofcrack length versus probability of failure. The element type failurerate is then determined and returned to the calling program. In addition,the five largest cracks in terms of fail-safe length are determined andsaved each time the routine is called. Cracks are saved in fourcategories as described in the discussion on program output. This routineis called from the MAIN program.

Local Variables

C - This real variable is used to count the number of cracks with aprobability of failure equal to zero.

CL - This real variable is the crack length.

LYS, XLYS - These real variables are used as intermediate storage in thecurve fit procedure.

NUM.CRKS - This real variable is the additional cracks generated in theroutine to account for the POP.SIZE of the element type.

PE,PF,PROB,DET - These real variables are used as intermediate storagein calculating the element type failure rate.

ýgL - This real variable is the sum of the squares of the crack lengths.

SUML - This real variable is the sum of the crack lengths.

T - This real variable is the fleet service life.

I, IK, J, K, KI, KK, NN, TEMP - These variables are used in determiningthe five largest cracks to save.

:5

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t ROUTINE REAL.LIFE

DESCRIPTION - This routine accepts (1) the predicted average fatigue lifeoT an element (2) the mean and standard deviation of the ratio of theactual average fatigue life to the predicted average fatigue life. Arandom selection is made from a log-normal distribution and multiplied bythe predicted average fatigue life. The ratio of the actual elementfatigue life to the predicted fatigue life is limited from .1 to 10.0.The resulting actual average fatigue life is returned to the callingprogram. REAL.LIFE can be called from the MAIN program and eventsIMPLEMENT.MODIFICATION and T. IM"LEMENT.MOD.

Local Variables

MEAN - This real variable, whose value is passed from the calling routine,is-t)he mean of the ratio distribution.

RATIO - This real variable, determined to be log-normally distributed, ist e ratio of the actual fatigue life of an element design to its predictedfatigue life.

STD.DEV - This real variable, whose value is passed to the calling routine,is the standard deviation of the ratio distribution.

PDL - This real variable is the design predicted average fatigue lifepased from the calling routine.

RFL - This real variable is the element actual average fatigue life whichTs returned to the calling routine.

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EVENT ENTER.SERVICE

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the entry into service of a newaircraft. The temporary entity AIRCRAFT is created and identified by thevariable AIRPLANE (ID). The entity attributes TAIL.ID and FNTRY.TIME aredefined and the AIRPLANE is filed in the set ACTIVE.FLEET. AFACT isdetermined for each aircraft from a log-normal distribution using inputAMEAN. The routine FATIGUE.LIFE.SCATTER is called to determine the timesto first and second crack initiation. Element external and internal crackgrowth rates are calculated. The times to corrosion initiation andservice damage are calculated. If either of these times is less than theservice life of the aircraft, the corresponding defect is scheduled. Theprobability of a production defect is determined. If there is a pro-duction defect, the time to first crack initiation is replaced by a timedrawn from a distribution of times to crack initiation of aircraft withproduction defects. Crack initations, D-level inspection, and retirementfrom service are also scheduled. If the present aircraft is not the lastaircraft in the fleet, another EN1ER.SERVICE is scheduled. This event isscheduled in the M.AIN program and within itself.

Local Variables

ASD - This real variable is the standard deviation equal to ,15 *AMEANused to determine AFACT.

DEFECTLIFE - This real variable is the time to first crack initiationwhen the aircraft has a production defect,

FIRST.LIFE - This real variable is the time to first crack initiation whenthe aircraft has no production defect.

HOURS.TO.CORROSION - This real variable is the time to corrosion initia-tion.

INT.FASTI - This real variable is the standard deviation of the secondiniternal crack growth rate distribution.

INT.FAST2 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the fourthinternal crack growth rate distribution.

INT.SLOW1 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the firstinternal crack growth rate distribution.

INTSLOW2 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the thirdinternal crack growth rate distribution.

OURS.TO.SERVICE.DAMAGE - This real variable is the time to service damageoccurrence.

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RN- This real variable is a uniformly distributed random number betweenzero and one.

STD.FASTI - This real variable is the standard deviation of the secondexternal crack growth rate distribution.

STD.FAST2 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the fourthexternal crack growth rate distribution.

STD.SLOW1 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the firstexterna-crack growth rate distribution.

STD.SLOW2 - This real variable is the standard deviation of the thirdexternal crack growth rate distribution.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Create AIRCRAFT2. Calculate times to first and second crack initiation

(Call FATIGUE.LIFE.SCATTER)3. Calculate external and internal crack growth rates (Call

RATE eight times).4. Calculate corrosion time (Call PREEDICT.CORROSION).5. Calculate service damage time (Call PREEDICT.SERVICE.DAMAGE).6. If corrosion occurs in aircraft service life (Schedule

CORROSION).7. If service change occurs in aircraft service life (Schedule

IN.SERVICE. DAMAGE).8. Determine if production defect occurs.9. If first crack occurs in aircraft service life (Schedule

1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION).10. If second crack occurs in aircraft service life (Schedule

2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION).11. Schedule D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.12. Schedule RETIRE.FROM.SERVICE.13. Schedule ENTER.SERVICE for next aircraft if not last aircraft.

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ROUTINE FATIGUE.LIFE,SCATTER

DESCRIPTION m This routine receives the actual average fatigue life of theelement design and calculates the fatigue test life and the time to crackinitiation of the two fatigue cracks. These times are random selectionsfrom a two-parameter Weibull distribution. If the routine is not beingused to calculate fatigue test life, then crack initiation times areadjusted by dividing them by AFACT. This routine can be called from theMAIN program, INSTALL.MODIFICATION, ENTER.SERVICE, and REPAIR.

Local Variables

ALPHA - This real variable is the shape parameter of the fatigue lifedistribution.

BETA - This real variable is the scale parameter of the fatigue lifeatEribution.

FIRST.LIFE - This real variable is the fatigue test life or time to firstcrack initiation.

LIFE - This real array of length two is used to temporarily store thetimes to crack initiation.

N - This integer variable, passed from the calling routine, identifies therandom number stream to be used.

RFL - This real variable is the element actual average fatigue lifepassed from the calling routine.

RN - This real variable is a uniformly distributed random number.

SECOND LIFE - This real variable is the time to second crack intiation.

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ROUTINE. INSTALL.MODIFICATION

DESCRIPTION - This routine represents the installation of a structuralmodification caused by a fatigue test failure or by aircraft serviceexperience. The modification is installed during a repair or a D-levelinspection. All previously scheduled defect initiations are cancelled,and new times to defect initiations are calculated for each aircraft whenit is modified. This routine can be called from the event REPAIR andD.LEVEL.INSPECTION.

Local Variables (Same as ENTER.SERVICE except no variable ASD).

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Call COMP.RISK if crack exists.2. If inspection scheduled (Call CANCEL.SCHEDULED. INSPECTIONS).3. Cancel FAILURE, CORROSION, 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION, 2.STRENGTH.

REDUCTION, I.ITE, 2.ITE, and REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT Ifscheduled.

4. Do steps 2-10 in ENTER.SERVICE.

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EVENT IN.SERVICE.DAMAGE

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the occurrence of a service damage: • efe-ct. This occurrence results in the immediate initiation of the next

scheduled crack. A new time to service damage is determined. If the newtime is less than the remaining aircraft service time, this event isscheduled once again. This event can be scheduled from within itself or( in event ENTER.SERVICE.

Local Variables

IDSDM - This integer variable is the Identification number of the aircraftfrom which the event was scheduled.

OURS.TO.SERVICE.DAMAGE - This real variable is the time to the nextoccurrence of service damage.

RST - This real variable is the remaining service time to the retiremento--the aircraft being considered.

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EVENT T. IMPLEMENT.MOD

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the development of a structuralmodificati6n because of a fatigue test failure. A new predicted life forthe modification is determined by using the old predicted life or twicethe actual average fatigue life, whichever is greater. The actual averagefatigue life of the modification is determined by calling REAL.LIFE. Ifthe modification is fatigue tested and the actual average fatigue life isless than the predicted life, the actual average fatigue life is se't equalto the predicted life. If the fatigue test failure occurs before oneservice life, a retrofit modification is indicated and an inspectionincrease is scheduled for active aircraft. This event is scheduled in theMAIN program.

Local Variables

NEW.LIFE - This real variable is the predicted life of the modification.

NMU - This real variable is MU.R + .15 (I.-MU.R) and is based on theassumption that a modification usually improves the actual average fatiguelife of a particular design.

NSIG - This real variable is .85(SIG.R) and is based on the same assump-Th as for NMU.

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ROUTINE PREEDICT.SERVICE.DAMAGE

DESCRIPTION - This routine generates the time to service damage occurrencefor a given aircraft from a constant service damage occurrence rate., Ifthe service damage occurrence rate is zero in the input, the routinesets the time to service damage to twice the aircraft service life.This routine can be called from events ENTER.SERVICE and IN.SERVICE.DAMAGE.

Local Variables

OURS.TO.SERVICE.DAMAGE - This real variable is the time to servicedamage in flight hours.

RN - This real variable is a uniformly distributed random number betweenzero and one.

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ROUTINE PREDICT.CORROSION

DESCRIPTION - This routine generates time to corrosion initiation for agiven aircraft from a time-dependent occurrence rate approximated by twoconstant rates. The first constant occurrence rate, the second constantoccurrence rate, and the service time on the aircraft when the second rategoes into effect are all input variables. This routine can be called fromthe routine INSTALL.MODIFICATION and events ENTER.SERVICE and REPAIR.

Local Variables

CRCT - This real variable is the remaining time in flight hours until thesecond corrosion o:currence rate goes into effect. This variable can benegative indicating that the second rate is already in effect.

HOURS.TO.CORROSION - This real variable is the flight time until corrosionTF at ion.

LP - This real variable is used to hold an intermediate value during thec-alculation of time to corrosion initiation.

RN - This real variable is a uniformly distributed random number betweenzero and one.

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EVENT CORROSION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the initiation of a corrosion defect.A probalistic determination is made of whether corrosion occurs externallyor internally and if it occurs at a stress concentration. A corrosiondamage factor is calculated depending on whether corrosion occurs in astress concentration. A multiplying factor for crack growth rates is setequal to the numeric value for the corrosion resistance rating. If eitherof the events FAILURE or REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT is scheduled, its remainingtime to occurrence is reduced by the corrosion resistance rating. Theremaining time to crack initiation is reduced by the corrosion damagefactor. This event can be scheduled in the routine INSTALL.MODIFICATIONand in events ENTER.SERVICE and REPAIR.

Local Variables

CDM.MULTIPLYING FACTOR - This real variable is the factor which whenmultiplied by the remaining time to crack Initiation accounts for theshortening effect of corrosion on fatigue life.

IDCO - This integer variable contains the identification number of theair7craft for which the event CORROSION was scheduled.

NFTM - If a FAILURE has been scheduled, this real variable is the remain--ng time until its occurrence.

REDUCED.REMAINING.LIFE - This real variable is the REMAINING.LIFE multipliedby the corrosion damage factors.

REMAINING.LIFE - This real variable is the remaining time until a scheduledcrack initiation.

RST - This real variable is the remaining service time of the aircraftunder consideration.

TRT - If a REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT has been scheduled, this real variable isthe remaining time until its occurrence multiplied by the corrosiondamage factor.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Call COMP.RISK if crack exists.2. Determine if corrosion is internal or external.3. If inspections not scheduled (Call INSPECTION.SCHEDULER).4. Determine if corrosion in stress concentration factor.5. Calculate corrosion damage factor.6. Set crack growth rate multiplying factor to corrosion

resistance rating.7. Cancel I.ITE, 2.1TE, FAILURE, REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT,

1STRENGTH.REDUCTION, and 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION if scheduled.8. Schedule l.ITE, 2.ITE, FAILURE, REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT,1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION, and 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION based on

time reduction by corrosion resistance rating or corrosion

damage factor.

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,HrROUTINE RATE

DESCRIPTION - This routine statistically generates element crack growthrates whch- reflect variation in material properties and load environment.The growth rates are randomly drawn from a normal distribution which isdefined by a mean growth rate and a standard deviation passed from thecalling routine. If a random draw yields a negative growth rate, the rateis set equal to the mean growth rate minus four standard deviations.

Thus, the user must be sure that the standard deviation is always lessthan one-fourth of the means. This routine is defined as a function inthe PREAMBLE and is used in event ENTER.SERVICE and INSTALL.MODIFICATION.

Local Variables

GIG2 - These real variables are used to hold intermediate values in tilecalculation of the crack growth rate.

M - This real variable is the mean crack growth rate passed from thecalling routine.

RN - This real variable is a uniformally distributed random number betweenzero and one.

RNF - This real variable is 1 - RN.

S - This real variable is the crack growth rate standard deviation passedii-f-rom the calling routine.

W - This real variable is used to hold intermediate values in the calcula-t-ion of the crack growth rate.

Z - This real variable is the element crack growth rate returned to theFalling routine.

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EVENT 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the initiation of the first crack.A uniform-random number is compared with the probability of internalcracking to determine whether this crack initiates internally. If itdoes initiate internally, the time until it becomes external is calcu-lated and the event I.ITE is scheduled. The time to structural failureis calculated using a five-part residual strength curve. If this timeis less than the remaining service life of the aircraft, the eventFAILURE is scheduled. The time until the residual strength of theelement reaches the fail safe length is calculated. If this time isless than the remaining service life of the aircraft, the event REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT is scheduled. This event can be scheduled in eventsENTER.SERVICE, INSTALL.MODIFICATION, and REPAIR.

Local Variables

A - This real variable is obtained for each aircraft from a log-normalUistribution defined by AMEAN.

ARG, KI, K2, K4, K8, K9, KlO, Kll, 102, K13, K14, K15, K16, K17, K18,i1TK7---'W,-K24, LG, LOK5 - These real variables are usedas intermediate values in the calculation of time until structuralfailure.

GRI - This real variable is the element first crack growth rate.

GR2 - This real variable is the element second crack growth rate.

GR3 - This real variable is the element third crack growth rate.

GR4 - This real variable is the element fourth crack growth rate.

IDISR - This integer variable is the aircraft identification number.

Rl, R2, R3, R4, R5 - These real variables represent the strength degrada-MirToron the five-part strength degradation curve.

S-, S2, S3 - These real variables represent the residual strengths at• -- T-, and CTHREE.

TAR - This real variable is the simulation time at which the aircrafte7"ng processed retires from service.

T - This real variable is the time in flight hours until a crack initiatedinternally becomes external.

TI, T2, T3, T4 - These real variables are the time required for thecrack to grow to CONE, CTWO, CTHREE, arid FSAF.LGT.

TTF - This real varidble is the time in flight hours until elementf-ailure.

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MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Determine if crack initiates internally.2. Calculate time for internal crack to become external.3. If crack internal and becomes external within aircraft service

life (Schedule I.ITE).4. If inspections not scheduled (Call INSPECTION.SCHEDULER).5. Determine time to reach fail safe length.6. If crack reaches fail safe length within aircraft service

life (Schedule REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT).7. Determine time to failure.8. If time to failure within aircraft service life (Schedule

FAILURE).

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EVENT 2.STRENG'H.REDUCTION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the second crack initiation. Auniform random number is compared with the probability of internalcracking to determine whether this crack initiates internally. If itdoes initiate internally, the time until it becomes external is cal-culated and the event 2.ITE is scheduled if it occurs within the servicelife of the airplane. The time to structural failure is calculatedusing a nine-part residual strength curve, which is dependent on thecrack growth rate history of both the first and second crack. If thetime until failure is less than the remaining service life of theaircraft, the event FAILURE is scheduled. The time until the residualstrength of the element reaches fail safe strength is calculated. Ifthis time is less than the remaining service life of the aircraft, theevent REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT is scheduled. This event can be scheduled inevents ENTER.SERVICE, INSTALL.MODIFICATION, and REPAIR.

Local Variables

A - This real variable is obtained for each aircraft from a log-normalTistribution defined by AMEAN.

ARG, KI, K2, K4, K8, K9, K10, KII, K12, K13, K14, K15, K16, K17, K18,K(19, K20, K21, K22, K23, K24, K25, K26, K27 K28, K29, K30, K31, K(32,

K33, K34, K35 K36K37, K3 K3K39, K40, K41, K42, K43, K44, LGK5, LG-These local variables are used as intermediate values in the calculat onof time to element failure.

CCL1, CCL2, CCL3 - These real variables equal CONE, CTWO, and CTHREErespectively.

DL - This real variable is the length of the first crack at corrosioninitiation.

GR1, GR2, GR3, GR4, GR5, GR6, GR7, GR8, GR9 - These real variables arethe combined growth rates o6fthe first and second cracks.

ID2SR - This integer variable is the aircraft identification number.

Rl, R2, R3, R4, R5, R6, R7, R8, R9, These real variables represent thestrength degradation on the nine-part strength degradation curve.

S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7 - These real variables represent the residualstrengths at the actual crack length and fail safe length of the firstand second cracks.

T - This real variable is the time in flight hours until a crack initiatedTnternally becomes external.

TAC - This real variable is the time of corrosion i,,.tiation.

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TAR - This real variable is the simulation time at which the aircrafte--ng processed retires from service.

TAl - This real variable -is the time of the first crack initiation.

TCLI - This real variable is the time for the crack to reach CONE.

TCLL - This real variable is the time for the crack to grow between CONEand CTWO.

TCL3 - This real variable is the time for the crack to grow between CTWOan-dCTHREE.

Ti, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8 - These real variables are the timesrequired for the two cracks to reach critical crack lengths and failsafe lengths.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Call COMP.RISK.2. Determine if crack initiates internally.3. Calculate time for internal crack to become external.4. If crack internal and becomes external within aircraft

service lifa (Schedule 2.1TE).5. Determine time for two cracks to reach fail safe length.6. If cracks reach fail safe length within aircraft service

life (Schedule REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT).7. Determine time to failure.8. If time to failure within aircraft service life

(Schedule FAILURE).

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EVENT L.ITE

DESCRIPTION " This event.represents the time when a first crack whichinitiated internally becomes external. This time is defined by L.EXT, aninput quantity. At this time the appropriate element of the alpha array1.INT is changed from "YES" to "NO". This event is scheduled in event1. STRENGTH. REDUCTION.

Local Variables

ID-E- This integer variable is the aircraft identification number.

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EVENT 2.ITE

DESCRIPTION- This event represents the time when a second crack whichinitiated Tnternally becomes external. This time is defined by L.EXT,an input quantity. At this time the appropriate element of the alphaarray 2.INT is changed from "YES" to "NO". This event is scheduled inevent 2.STRENGTH REDUCTION.

Local Variables

ID2E - This integer variable is the aircraft identification number.

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ROUTINE INSPECTION.SCHEDULER

DESCRIPTION - This routine schedules all inspections below the D-level ona given aircraft. To conserve execution time, the inspections are scheduledso that the aircraft Is not inspected before the defect reaches its minimumdetectable size at the A, B, and C inspection levels. This routine iscalled from events 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION and COROSION.

Local Variables

Cl - This real variable is the corrosion growth rate used to calculate thetfine to the minimum detectable corrosion area.

Ml - This real variable is the crack growth rate used to calculate theMt-'e to the minimum detectable crack length.

N - This integer variable indicates whether a crack initiation or a corrosionTnitiation caused this routine to be called.

S.INSP.AT - This real variable is the simulation time at which the firstinspection at each level is scheduled.

TML - This real variable is the time to the minimum detectable defect sizecaTculated for each level of inspection.

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EVENT A.LEVEL.INSPECTION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the performance of an A-level'inspect on. The constants which define the probability of detectionare passed to the routine EXAMINE which handles the actual inspection.If a defect is detected on one of the ten high time aircraft, the time isstored in array 1IRDD, This event can be scheduled in the routineINSPECTION.SCHEDULER and the events A.LEVEL.INSPECTION, B.LEVEL.INSPECTION,C.LEVEL..INSPECTION, and D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.

Local Variables

FOUND - This real variable is used to indicate if a defect is foundandithe type of defect.

IDA - This integer variable is the indentification number of the aircraftebeing inspected.

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EVENT B.LEVEL.INSPECTION

DESCRIPTION - This evcnt represents the performance of a B-level inspection.The inspection Is not done, If the B-level inspection is within one- alf aB-level interval from the next C-level or D-level Inspection. The constantswhich define the probability of detection equation at the B-level are passedto the routine EXAMINE, which determines if the defect is found. Theinspection interval for each inspection level is not necessarily an evenmultiple of all lower level intervals. If an A-level inspection is scheduled,it is cancelled and rescheduled at present time, plus one A-level intervallater. If a defect is detected on one of the ten high time aircraft, thetime is stored In array MRDD. This event can be scheduled in the routineINSPECTION.SCHEDULER and events B.LEVEL.INSPECTION, C.LEVEL.INSPECTION,and D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.Local Variables

FOUND - This real variable is used to indicate if a defect is found and,F--Type of defect.

IDB - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraft-Tng inspected.

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EVENT C.LEVEL.INSPECTION IiDESCRIPTION - This event represents the performance of a C-level ifinspection. The inspection is not done, if the C-level inspection iswithin one-half a C-level interval of the next D-level inspection.IF there is either an A-level or a B-level inspection currentlyscheduled, It is cancelled and rescheduled at one A-level or B-levelinterval, respectively, later. The constants which define theprobability of defect detection equation at the C-level are passedto the routine EXAMINE, which determines If the defect is found. TheC-level inspection uses both exploratory and non-exploratory probabil-ity of detection curves. The non-exploratory curve goes into effectafter one crack has been detected. If a defect is detected on one ofthe ten high time aircraft, the time is stored in array MRDD. Thisevent can be scheduled in routine INSPECTION.SCHEDULER and eventsC.LEVELINSPECTION and D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.

Local Variables

FOUND - This real variable is used to indicate if a defect is foundand-t-he type of defect.

IDC - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraftBeing inspected.

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EVENT D.LEVEL.INSPECTION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the performance of a D-level inspec-

tion. If there are any lower level inspections currently scheduled,they are cancelled and rescheduled at one Inspection interval later. Adetermination is made whether an aircraft receives an external orinternal inspection dependent on the current value of the variableSAMPLING. The constants which define the probability of defect detectionequation at the D internal and external levels are passed to the routineEXAMINE, which determines if a defect is found. Explanatory and non-explanatory probability of crack detection curves are used. Non-explan-atory crack detection curves go into effect after a crack has beendetected. The defect histories of the ten-high time aircraft are nowexamined. If all of the ten-high time aircraft time goes one D-levelinterval without a defect being detected at any inspection level, the C-level and D-level intervals are increased and the value of SAMPLING ischanged.

The changes in the C and D intervals and SAMPLING are dependent on thecurrent value of the D-level interval. If the current D-level intervalis less than or equal to 12,000 hours, the following relations are used:

ABCD(3) ABCD(3) * FREQ.DECREASE /2 +1NEW OLD

ABCD(4) = ABCD(4) * FREQ.DECREASE *2 +1NEW OLD

SAMPLING = SAMPLING/(FREQ.DECREASE *2 +1)+lNEW OLD

If the current D-level interval is greater than 12,000 hours, thefollowing relations are used:

ABCD(3) = ABCD(3) * (FREQ.DECREASE +1)NEW OLD

ABCD(4) = ABCD(4) * (FREQ.DECREASE +1)NEW OLD

SAMPLING SAMPLING +1NEW OLD

The D-level inspection interval is limited to 32,000 hours and the C-Level interval is limited to 32,000 times the ratio of the initial C-interval to the initial D-interval. The D-level inspection interval forall aircraft is rescheduled at the new value. No changes are permittedif a modification is pending. If a service modification or retrofitmodification is pending, it is done at the D-level. If the D-levelinterval has been decreased prior to a modification, then it is restoredto its value prior to the decrease after the modification.

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A check is done in the routine to replace the ten high time aircraftafter they retire. The ten high time aircraft are replaced by tenaircraft whose next D-level inspection occurs closest to one D-levelinterval from the last increase. After this point the last ten aircraftin the fleet are taken as the high time aircraft.

If a defect is found and a modification is not done, a repair is scheduled.This event can be scheduled in the events ENTER.SERVICE, D.LEVEL.INSPECTION, T. INSPECTION. INCREASE and INCREASE.INSPECTION.FREQUENCY.

Local Variables

DECC - This real variable is the factor the C-interval is multiplied byfor an interval increase when old D-interval is less than 12,000 hours.

DECD - This real variable is the factor the D-interval is multiplied byfor--an interval increase when old D-interval is less than 12,000 hours.

FOUND - This real variable is used to indicate if a defect is found andthe type of defect.

IDD - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraftbeing inspected.

N - This integer variable contains the identification numbers of aircraftthat receive internal D-level inspections.

SMALL - This real variable is used in determining which ten aircraftreplace the ten high time aircraft after they retire.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Schedule the next D.LEVEL..INSPECTION.2. Cancel and reschedule lower level inspections one interval

from the present D-level inspection.3. Determine if internal or external inspection.4. Call EXAMINE.5. Check high time aircraft for defect.6. Increase inspection intervals if no modification pending

and no defect on high time aircraft.7. Reschedule D.LEVEL.INSPECTION if step 6 is true.8. Determine aircraft that will replace ten high time aircraft

after they retire.9. If modification pending:

a. Call INSTALL.MODIFICATION.b. Reschedule D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.

1.c. Return.10l. If defect found, schedule REPAIR.

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ROUTINE EXAMINE

DESCRIPTION - Th!s routine performs the numerical comparison whichdetermines whether a defect is detected at each level of inspection.

"* This reutine receives constants from calling routines which determinethe probability of defect detection. The calculation of the probabilityof corrosion detection and the probability of crack detection that isexponential is done by routine PODD. For crack lengths that are not onthe exponential curve the probability of detection is determined inroutine EXAMINE for all inspection levels. Internal defects can only bedetected by internal inspection. Cracks that originate internally andbecome external can be detected by external inspection, but use only theexternal length of the crack. If a defect is detected, a repair isscheduled if the inspection level is A, B, or C. This routine can becalled from events A.LEVEL.INSPECTION, B.LEVEL.INSPECTION, C.LEVEL.INSPECTION, and D.LEVEL.INSPECTION.

Local Variables

AREA - This real variable is the calculated area of the corrosionUeFect.

CCLI - This real variable is the first critical crack length.II,

CCL2 - This real variable is the second critical crack length.

CCL3 - This real variable is the third critical crack length.

CL. - This real variable is the calculated length of the fatigue crack.

FOUND - This real variable is set equal to two whenever corrosion isdetected and to one whenever a crack is detected.

Ml, M2, M3, M4 - T'hese real variables are the individual element crackgrowth rates.

N - This integer variable identifies the inspection level and is passed'Fy the calling event.

* 4PL - This real variable is the probability of defect detection.

TAC - This real variable is the simulation time of corrosion initiation.

TAl - This real variable is the simulation time of the first crackinitiation.

TA2- This real variable is the simulation time of the second crack-nTtiation.

XA, XL, YA, ZA, ZL - These real variables are the probability of defectdetection constants for the exponential curve and are passed by thecalling routines.

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Z - This alpha variable is the level of inspection being performed.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. If corrosion exists, and inspection is internal, or corrosionis external:a. Calculate corrosion area.b. Call PODD to determine probability of detection.c. Draw random number and compare to probability of

detection. If random number less than or equal toprobability of detection, then corrosion is found.

2. If first crack exists, and inspection is internal or crackis external:a. Calculate crack length.b. If crack originated internally and inspection is external,subtract internal portion of crack from crack length.c. Determine probability of detection for crack, if crack

length is on non-exponential part of detection curve.

Probability of crack detection is dependent oninspection level and crack length.

d. If crack length on exponential part of detection curve, 1call PODD for probability of detection.

e. Draw random number and compare to probability ofdetection. If random number less than or equal toprobability of detection, the first crack is found.

f. If crack found and crack originated internally andexternal inspection, add internal portion of crack backto length for -'ecording of total crack length.

3. If second crack exists, and inspection is internal or crackis external (Same as steps 2A - 2F).

4. If defect found, schedule REPAIR if inspection level A, B, orC.

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ROUTINE PODO

DESCRIPTION - This routine computes the probability of detection forcorrosion and for cracks that are on the exponential portion of thecrack detection curve. This probability is returned to the callingroutine. PODD is called from routine EXAMINE and event IMMEDIATE..FLEET.INSPECTION.

Local Variables

L - This real variable is the size of the defect under consideration.

RL- This real variable is the probability of detection of the defect.

X - This real variable is the maximum probability of detection at a giveninspection level.

Y - This real variable is an empirically determined equation constantfor each level of inspection.

Z - This real variable is the minimum defect size detectable at a givenTnspection level.

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I p

ROUTINE CANCEL.SCHEDULED.INSPECTIONS

DESCRIPTION - rhis routine cancels all sched-uled inspections below theD-le~el on a given aircraft. Whenever a defect is detected and repaired,it is assumed that all other defects existing on that particular elementare also repaired. This routine is called at this time to cancel allsubsequent inspections. Also, if an element fails or an aircraft withexisting defects is retired, this routine is called to cancel allscheduled inspections. This routine can be called from events FAILURE,RETIRE.FROM.SERVICE, and REPAIR.

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EVENT REACH.FAIL.SAFE,L6T

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the time when the residual strengthof the element has been reduced to the fail-safe strength. The time andaircraft identification numbers are saved as output. The calculations

I' of the strength reduction is based on the sum of the two crack lengths,if the second crack is present In the element. This event can bescheduled in events 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION and 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION.

Local Variables

IDRFS - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraftb•eng processed.

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EVENT FAILURE

DESCRIPTION - This event represents structural failure. When this eventoccurs, the aircraft is removed from the active fleet. If this aircraftwas one of the ten high-time aircraft being monitored for the purpose ofincreasing inspection intervals, it is replaced by the next high-timeaircraft in active service. Any remaining scheduled events are cancelledand their event routines destroyed. The events INCREASE.INSPECTION.FREQUENCY and routine COMP.RISK is called. This event can be scheduledin events 1.STRENGTH.REDUCTION and 2.STRENGTH.REDUCTION.

Local Variables

HOLD This integer variable serves as an intermediate storage for aircraftT•'entification when replacing one of the ten high-time aircrafts.

IDFA - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraftund-er consideration.

S- This real variable is the residual strength at failure.

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II

EVENT RETIRE.FROM.SERVICE

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the retirement of an aircraft fromactive service. If a crack exists the routine COMP.RISK is called. Theaircraft being retired is removed from the set ACTIVE.FLEET and filed inF ~ ~the set FLEET.RETIRED. All remaining scheduled events for this aircraft iJare cancelled and the event notices destroyed. This event is scheduledin the event ENTER.SERVICE.

Local Variables

IDRET - This integer variable is the identification number of theaircFaft being retired from service.

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SEVENT REPAIR I

DESCRIPTION - This event represents the structural repair of an element.V t e-vets FAILURE and REACHFAIL.SAFE.LGT are scheduled, they arecancelled. It is assumed that all existing defects are repaired andthat new times to defect occurrences are determined in the same manneras when the aircraft entered service. The size and number of allexisting cracks are compared with the inspection interval decreasecriteria.

The inspection interval decrease criteria differentiates between largeand small cracks. Large crack criteria is a crack greater than thefail-safe length or if the sum of the crack lengths plus crack growthrate times inspection interval is greater than (SU-I.2*(DILL+l)-l)*FSAF.LGT/(SU-SF). The inspection interval is the current D-level intervalif the crack is found in an external inspection. Otherwise, theinspection interval is the current D-level interval times the currentSAMPLING. If a large crack is found, an IMMEDIATE.FLEET.INSPECTIONand INCREASE.INSPECTION.FREQUENCY is scheduled.

If the special fleet inspection detects a crack, the inspection intervalcan be reduced again if the crack detected during the specialinspection meets the criteria just discussed. Small cracks are thosenot determined by the criteria to be large. If the sum of the cracksfound in the entire fleet times the fail-safe crack length is greaterthan one-fifth of the fleet size, the inspection interval is reduced.

If a modification is pending on the aircraft being repaired, themodification is installed at this time. A decision on modification, dueto the current defect, is scheduled. The routine COMP.RISK is called.This event can be scheduled in routine EXAMINE and events D.LEVEL.INSPECTION and IMMEDIATE.FLEET.iNSPECTION.

Local Variables

AAFL - This real variable is the actual average fatigue life of the element.

CCLI, CCL2, CCL3 - These real variables are the critical crack lengths.

CL - This real variable is the crack length.

FIRST.LIFE - This real variable is the time in flight hours to firstcrack initiation.

HOURS.TO. CORROSION - This real variable is the time in flight hours tocorrosion initiatTon.

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IDREP - This integer variable is the aircraft identification number.

MAX.CRK - This real variable is the sum of the crack lengths in theelement. {

POT.CRK - This real vwriable is the sum of the maximum crack length andtFe-Teength that the crack wil'l gain in the next D-level inspectioninterval.

RST - This real variable is the remaining service time of the aircraft.

SDL - This real variable is 1.2* DLL - 1.

SECOND.LIFE - This real variable is the time in flight hours to thesecond crack initiation.

STR.RED - This real variable is the element strength reduction becauseof a17 existing cracks.

TAC - This real variable is simulation time to corrosion initiation.

TAI, TA2 - These real variables are simulation time to the first andsecond crack initiation.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. Cancel REACH.FAIL.SAFE.LGT and FAILURE, if scheduled.2. Cancel CORROSION if corrosion exists.3. Call PREDICT.CORROSION.4. Schedule CORROSION if it occurs within remaining

service life.5. Calculate first and second crack lengths.6. Calculate fleet strength reduction and potential

crack growth.7. If crack large, schedule an IMMEDIATE.FLEET.INSPECTION and

an INCREASE.INSPECTION.FREQUENCY.8. If crack small and fleet strength reduction criteria met,

schedule an INCREASE. INSPECTION. FREQUENCY.9.. Install modification if pending, call INSTALL.MODIFICATION.

10. For, fatigue test failure modification cancel T.INSPECTION.INCREASE if scheduled.

11. If crack exists, call COMP.RISK.12. Schedule DECISION.ON.MOD.13. Cancel and reschedule fatigue crack initiation.14. If inspection scheduled, call CANCEL.SCHEDULED.INSPECTIONS.

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EVENT T. INSPECTION. INCREASE

DESCRIPTION - This represents an inspection interval decrease for aparticular aircraft pending a structural modification because of afatigue test failure. The D-interval is reduced by the input quantityT.FREQ.CHG. The D-level inspection is rescheduled for aircraft withmodification pending. This event is scheduled in event T.IMPLEMENT.MOD.

Local Variables

IDTI - This integer variable is the identification number of the aircraftunder consideration.

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EVENT INCREASE. INSPECTION.FREQUENCY

DESCRIPTION -This event represents a fleet wide decrease in the D-levelTnspecton-interval and a change In SAMPLING. The D-level inspectioninterval is reduced by the input quantity S.FREQ.CHG.SAMPLING is setequal to one, if the crack is detected in a D-level internal inspection.

F For SAMPLING equal to one, every aircraft Is inspected internally at theD-level. If the crack is not found in an internal D-level inspectionSAMPLING is changed by dividing its current value by S.FREQ.CHG. The D-level inspection interval for the entire fleet is then rescheduled.This event can be scheduled in events REPAIR and IMMEDIATE.FLEET. INSPECTION.

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EVENT IMMEDIATE.FLEET.INSPECTION

DESCRIPTION - This event represents an immediate fleet-wide inspectioncaused by finding a large crack. Existing crack lengths and corrosionareas are calculated along with the associated probabilities of detec-tion. As in the scheduled inspections, these probabilities are compared

with a random number to determine whether or not the defect is detected.If any cracks are found and the inspection intervals had not previouslybeen reduced an IMCREASE. INSPECTION.FREQUENCY is scheduled. If anydefects are found a REPAIR is scheduled. These defects will not causeany additional fleet-wide inspections. This event Is scheduled in eventREPAIR.

Local Variables

AREA - This real variable is the area of an existing corrosion defect.

CCLU, CCL2, CCL3 - These real variables are the critical crack lengths.

CK.FIND - This real variable is set equal to one if a crack is found inthe special inspection.

CL - This real variable is the length of an existing crack.

FOI•ND - This real variable indicates if a defect is found and the typeof-d-efect.

Ml, M2, M3, M4 - These real variables are the four crack growth rates.

PL - This real variable is the probability of detection of an existinge-fect.

TAC - This real variable is the time of initiation of an existingcorrosion defect.

TAl, TA2 - These real variables are the times to initiation of the firstand second cracks.

MAJOR LOGIC STEPS

1. If corrosion exists:a. Calculate area.b. Determine probability of detection, call PODD.c. Compare with random number to determine if detected.

2. If first crack exists:a. Calculate length.b. Determine probability of detection, call PODD if

on exponential part of detection curve.c. Compare with random number to determine if detected.

3. If second crack exists:(Same as 2A - 2C).

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4. If high time aircraft have defects, record time.5. If defects found, schedule REPAIR.6. If crack found and inspection Interval not previously

reduced, schedule an INCREASE. INSPECTION. FREQUENCY.

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EVENT DECISION.ON.MOD

This event makes the decision on whether or not to develop a structuralmodification because of service experience. The decision to develop amodification is made by comparing the cost per flight hours of themodification with the repair cost per flight hours plus the increasedinspection cost per flight hours. The modification cost per flighthours is found by dividing the total fleet modification cost by theremaining service life of the fleet. The repair cost per flight hoursis found by dividing the total fleet repair costs since the last modi-fication by the fleet flight time since the last modification. Theincreased inspection cost per flight hour is found by dividing theprojected increased inspection costs by the remaining service life ofthe fleet. SAMPLING is included in the Increased inspection costscalculation since cracks found in internal D-level inspections setSAMPLING equal to one, while SAMPLING is changed by S.FREQ.CHG if thecrack is not found at the internal D-level insnection. If a decision ismade to modify, the event IMPLEMENT.MODIFICATIuN is scheduled. Thisevent is scheduled in the event REPAIR.

LOCAL VARIABLES

ACCUMULATED.HRS - This real variable is the total fleet time since the

last modification.

ICPH- This real variable is the increased inspection cost per flighthour.

hCPoHu- This real variable is the modification cost per flight hour.

MD.COST - This real variable is the cost of installing a modification ona single aircraft.

MRFH - This real variable is the service time remaining on a particulara-cWrraft after its modification.

NFTS - This real variable is the total production time of all aircraftentering service after the second production rate goes into effect.

NPDL - This real variable is the number of aircraft which have enteredservice.

POST.MOD.HRS - This real variable is the total fleet service timerEmaining after the modification.

RCPH - This real variable is the repair cost per flight hour.

TOOLING - This real variable is the tooling cost in the development of a

modi'fication.

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!..:i, EVENT IMPLEMENT.MODIFICATION

,: DESCRIPTION - •his event represents the development of a modificationSbecause of service experience. If the modification is to be fatigue

tested, the actual average fatigue life is set equal to the originalpredicted life of the element design. Otherwise, the actual averagefatigue life is determined by calling routine REAL.LIFE. The modi-fication will be installed on each aircraft at the next D-level inspec-tion or defect repair. The D-level inspection interval and D-levelinternal sampling are set to their values prior to the interval reduc-tion. This event can be scheduled in event DECISION.ON.MOD.

Local Variables

NSIG - This real variable is the standard deviation of the ratio distribu-Spassed to routine REAL.LIFE.

NMU - This real variable is the mean of the ratio distribution passed to•tine REAL.LIFE.

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ROUTINE DISPLAY.OUTPUT

DESCRIPTION - This routine prints the output for each element. Thisoutput is suppressed if the long list option is in effect. This routineis called from the MAIN program.

Local Variables

All the local variables in this routine are used to temporarily storeoutput values.

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ROUTINE SUMMARY

DESCRIPTION - This routine prints the summary output for each elementtype. This output is suppressed if the long list option Is in effect.This routine is called from the MAIN program.

Local Variables

All the local variables in this routine are used to temporarily storeoutput values.

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ROUTINE SUMMARY

DESCRIPTION - This routine prints the summary output for each elementtype. This output is suppressed if the long list option is in effect.This routine is called from the MAIN program.

Local Variables

All the local variables in this routine are used to temporarily storeoutput values.

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APPENDIX B

MODIFIED PROGRAM SOURCE LISTING

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