Report No. 3487-BAR Economic Memorandum on...

Report No. 3487-BAR

Economic Memorandum on Barbados

June 10, 1981

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsoniy in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bar!k authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit:Until November 1973 Eastern Caribbean Dollar (EC$)Since December 1973 : Barbados Dollar (BDS$)

December 1971

US$1.00 = EC$1.975EC$1.00 = US$0.506

Since July 1975

US$1.00 = BDS$2.00BDS$1.00 - US$0.50

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the findings of an IBRDeconomic mission to Barbados in March/April 1980, composedof Carlos G. Muniz (Economist) and Dolores Velasco (ResearchAssistant). The report also includes the findings of anIBRD economic mission that visited Barbados in October 1980.The October 1980 mission was composed of Arturo Meyer(Economist); Carlos G. Muniz (Economist); Dolores Velasco(Research Assistant); Peretz Ram (Agricultural Economist);Parvis Maleki (FAO - Agronomist); Marcel Massid (FAO - Agri-cultural Credit Specialist); and Wallace Pryke (Consultant -Energy Conservation Specialist).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceor their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

BARBADOS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pae jNo.

MAP

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................... i vii

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND ...................................

II. DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES, ISSUES AND POLICIES ........... 8

III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND FINANCING...,..... 20

IV. GROWTH AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROSPECTS .............. 25

ANNEX I: RECENT FISCAL MEASURES .................... 31

ANNEX II: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST ... ,,.,. 33

STATISTICAL APPENDIX ................................. 94

IBRD 11044C \ 80= o 70¢ MAY 1974

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BARBADOS - t PoWnt

AGRICULTURAL LAND USE PLANArable land suitoble for mechanical cultivation * Sugar factories

'C 0 ;XArable land unsuitobte for mechanicol cultivotion Beaches1- - --i Posture tond with limited irrigation Irrigation boundories[ Z Market gardening with limited irrigation Major roads

Gullies and steep lond suitoble for forest, fruit, Parish bourdoriescitrus and bonanos, windbreak trees. Main built-up areos

A Zones capoble of approximately equol sugar --- Internotionol boundariesyields (not defined) a 1 2 3 4 5

I I I I I I

MILES

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COUNTRY DATA - BARB'ADOS

AR,LA 2 PopinATION DENSITY431 km 0.253 million (mid-1979) 585 per kt2

Rate of Growth.: 0.6% (from 1970 to 1979) 958 per bm2 of arable land

POP1ULATION '?HARA(11RISTICS (1979) HEALTH (1977)Crude Birth Rate (poer 1,000) 17.0 Population per physician 1,459Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 8.7 Population per hospital bed 113Tvfant MortalyLy (per 1,000 live births) 28.0

isCO:{? DISrRIBUTION (1970) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND (MNERSHIP (1970)X of national income, highest quintile 44.0 % owned by top 107. of owners 77.0

lowest quintile 18.6 7 owned by smallest 107 of owners 0.5

A0CESS TOSAFE WATER (1977) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1980)Z of population - urban 100.0 % of population - urban 96.0

- rural 100.0 - rural 90.0

NUTRITION EDUCATION (1970)Calorie intake as X of requirements 129 Adult literacy rate % 99.0Per capita protein intake 82.8 Prizary school enrollment % 112.0

1/GNP PER CAPITA in 1979 US $ 2,400

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCr IN 1979 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (j. constan! Erices)

US $ Mln. 7. 1976-78 1979

GNP at Market Pr; es 652.3 100.0 4.2 8.1Gross Domestic investment 151.1 23.1 4.4 10.001oSS National Saving 125.9 19.3Current Account Balance -25.2 3.8Exports of Coods, NFS 434.2 66.6 12.5 13.6Imports of Goods, NFS 480.0 73.6 5.0 9.0

OU1PUT, IABOR FORCF ANDPRODUCTIV:TY IN 1980

Value Added Employment V. A. Per WorkeruS $ Mln. 7 Thousands X US $%

Agriculture 72.0 10.0 9.3 9.3 7742 108.1Industry 138.0 19.2 23.3 23.2 5923 82.7Services 508.4 70.8 67.7 67.5 7509 104.8Uynallocated.--

Total/Average 718.4 100.0 100.3 100.0 7162 lOO.O

GOVERNMENT FINANCEGeneral GoNvernment Central Government

H~S$ Mm.) 7. of GDP (BDS$ Mni.) % of GLP1980/81 1980/81 1980/81

Currernt Receipts 474.3 29.4 428.2 26.6Cuirrent Expenditure 394.1 24.4 380.6 23.6Currcnt Surplus 80.2 5.0 47.6 3.0Capital Expenditures 140.5 8.7 138.3 8.6External Assistance (net) 66.0 4.1 66.0 4.1

1/ The rer Capita GNP estimate is at 1979 market prices, calculated by the same conversiontechnique as the 1980 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table areat the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered.

not availabletiot applicable

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COUNTRY DATA - BARBADOS

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1975 1976 1977 1978, 1979 1980(- flhion outstandirn end periodT

Money and Quasi Money 331.1 366.5 416.9 476.6 596.7 701.2

Balk Credit to Public Sector (Net) 14.7 45.5 93.5 58.0 73.0 57.3

Beank Credit to Private Sector 285.0 323.2 352.7 397.5 495.3 593.0

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as X of GDP 42.5 43.3 43.9 44.2 45.6 43.5

General F-;ice Index (1963 - 100) 120.3 126.3 136.8 149.9 169.6 194.1

Annual per_entaga changes in:

General Pri.c Index 20.3 5.0 8.3 9.6 13.1 14.4

Bank credit to Public Sector (Net) 85.0 209.5 105.5 -61.2 25.9 -27.4

Bank credit to Private Sector 10.3 13.4 9.1 12.7 24.6 19.7

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1975-80)8ALANCE OF PAYMENTS US$ Mln %

1978 1979 1980 Sugar 33.6 25.1(Millions US $) -Molasses 4.4 3.3

Other Primary 6.2 4.6Rum 2.2 1.7

ExDorts of Goods, NFS 346.3 434.2 561.7 Chemicals 5.3 4.0

Imports of Goods, NFS 372.0 480.0 598.3 Clothing 19.2 14.4

Resout-ce Gap (deficit - -) -z-77 -47-A _T Electrical Components 15.5 11.6

Interest on Public Debt -3.2 -5.0 -5.9 All other commodities 47.2 35.3

Other Factor Payments (net) 4.8 3.6 2.4 Total 133.6 100.0

Current Transfers (net) 16.6 22.0 22.0

Balance on Current Account -7.5 -25.2 -18.1 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1979

-Net Public Disbursements 16.6 7.6 29.3 Mln

(Gross Disbursements) (20.9) (12.3) (35.3)

(Amortization) (-4.3) (-4.7) (-6.0) Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 69.2

Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Other Capital 20.7 26.8 10.8 Total outstanding & Disbursed ...

Change in Reserves b/ -29.8 -9.2 -22.0 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1979 a/

Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 2.1

Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Total outstanding & Disbursed ...

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING (Dec. 31, 1979)(Million US $)

December - 1971 IBRD IDA

US $ 1.00 EC$ 1.9751.00 US $0.506 Outstanding & Disbursed _

Undisbursed 17.0 -

Since - July 1975 outstanding incl. Undisbursed 17.0

US $ 1.00 = BDS$ 2.00BDS$ 1.00 US $ 0.50

a/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

b/ Minus equals increase.

not available

not applicable

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Background

i. Barbados, the most easterly of the Caribbean islands, is one of themore developed countries in the Commonwealth Caribbean. Within the Common-wealth Caribbean, its per capita income in 1979 (US$2400) was only surpassed byoil-rich Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas.

ii. Barbados has a long history of constitutional government, and eco-nomic development has been achieved with social and political stability.Social and political stability, and well conceived and implemented govern-mental policies have fostered an excellent investment climate. Barbados'natural resources are fairly limited, but its human resources are well de-veloped. Barbados' population is highly motivated and well educated. Thecountry also has a well developed infrastructure.

iii. The mid-1950s marked an important milestone in Barbados' economicdevelopment. After three centuries of exclusive dependence on sugar, theeconomy began a process of economic diversification and structural change.This process has been mainly characterized by: (a) the emergence of manufac-turing and tourism as important economic sectors; and (b) the emergence ofgovernment as an important economic force, both in itself, and through theprovision of fiscal incentives and economic infrastructure to support privateinvestment.

iv. From the mid-1950s through the 1960s, real GDP growth is estimatedto have been 5% per year. Tourism and manufacturing were the leading growthsectors. Sugar production remained high during most of this period, but begana steady decline after 1967. The decline in sugar production, which lastedthrough the mid-1970s, was due to a decrease in yields and cane area. Yieldsdeclined mainly because of: a) extended periods of poor rainfall; and b)increasing labor shortages, which led to the practice of harvesting burntcane. Labor shortages occurred in spite of relatively high real wages andhigh unemployment because of social attitudes and because of the hardship andtedium of cane cutting. The harvesting of burnt cane reduced yields becauseburning affects soil moisture. Cane area declined because of reduced yields,increasing costs, labor shortages, and a strong demand for land for tourismand urban development. Since 1976, sugar production has shown an increasingtrend, in relation to 1975, because, on the average, cane burning has de-creased and weather conditions have been more favorable. Nevertheless, av-erage production remains much below the average levels obtained during the1950s and 1960s.

v. Economic growth was lower in the early 1970s. Tourism and manu-facturing expanded, but investment and construction declined. Adverse ex-ternal developments affected the performance of manufacturing (1974) and tour-ism (1975), and, as a result, economic activity decreased in 1974, and almoststagnated in 1975.

vi. Economic performance since 1976 has been good. The partial eco-nomic recovery of the OECD countries, and increased levels of private invest-ment in tourism and manufacturing contributed, during 1976-1979, to annualrates of growth of about 6%. This rapid rate of growth reduced the unemploy-ment rate from an estimated 25% in 1975 to about 13% in 1979. Given theopenness of the Barbadian economy, inflation during this period generally

followed international trends. Because of a sharp drop in sugar prices,public finances and the balance of payments weakened in 1976. They have beenstrengthened since. The strengthening of public finances has been mainly dueto discretionary increases in consumption taxes, and to a policy of restrict-ing the growth of current expenditures; the strengthening of the balance ofpayments to a strong export performance, and to demand management measures(1977-78) that have kept import growth below export growth. The strengtheningof the balance of payments has been achieved in spite of a deterioration inthe terms of trade.

vii. Barbados experienced during 1980, its fifth consecutive year ofrapid economic expansion. Because of good rainfall, sugar production during1980 increased substantially. Manufacturing and construction also exhibitedstrong growth. Thus, although tourists' arrivals stagnated, real GDP growthis estimated at 5%. Domestic prices rose at a faster rate than in 1979. Sinceimport prices rose at a lower rate than in 1979, the acceleration of domesticprices must be attributed to a lag effect and to internal factors. Unemploy-ment decreased marginally.

viii. The financial performance of the public sector was not quite asstrong as in 1979. The central government continued its policy of shiftingthe tax burden from direct to indirect taxes. Because of economic growth, andof the broadening of the consumption tax, current revenues increased at afaster rate than GDP. In accordance with its policy of adjusting publicsector wages every two years, the central government granted civil servants a30% nominal wage increase. The growth of other current expenditures wascontained, however, and current expenditures remained constant in relation toGDP. Consequently, the savings of the central government increased to 4.7% ofGDP as compared with 4.3% in 1979. The relative decline in total publicsector savings was, therefore, due to a less satisfactory performance of therest of the public sector.

ix. As the implementation of the four-year (FY79/80-FY82/83) publicsector investment program gained momentum, capital expenditures and netlending increased, during FY80/81, to an estimated BD$149.6 million or 9.3%of GDP. Increased capital expenditures and reduced savings led to anestimated overall deficit of BD$63.1 million or 3.9% of GDP. Net externalfinancing was sufficient to finance this large deficit, and to allow for asmall reduction in domestic financing. Gross project financing and grantsamounted to BD$22.0 million; CDF-type financing--including the first trancheof the Venezuelan oil facility--to BD$16.2 million; financing from financialinstitutions in Trinidad-Tobago to BD$40.0 million; and amortization to 12.2million.

x. The current account deficit of the balance of payments decreased toabout 2% of GDP. International inflation, increased levels of domestic publicand private investment, a strong demand for consumer goods, and an increasedoil bill, led to a large increase in imports. Export performance, however,outpaced import growth. Sugar earnings almost doubled-surpassing the 1975level--and manufacturing and tourism's earnings also increased significantly--the latter because of inflation. Net public disbursements were, in compa-rison with previous years, relatively large. In contrast, net private capitalinflows were relatively low, probably as a consequence of high interest ratesabroad, and of increased interest rate differentials between financialmarkets abroad and Barbados. Total net capital inflows were sufficient tofinance the current account deficit and to provide for an increase in inter-national reserves of US$22 million. Gross official reserves at year-end wereequivalent to 2.2 months of imports; given the openness of the economy, thislevel is relatively low.

- iii -

Development Objectives, Issues and Policies

xi. Despite its achievements, Barbados faces difficult developmentproblems. Its resource base is narrow. Its economy is highly open and stillhighly dependent on sugar and tourism for most of its foreign exchange earn-ings. Domestic production of petroleum covers only about 20% of fuel con-sumption. Agriculture has experienced, over the last two decades, a seculardecline. The small size of its population limits the possibilities forinternally led growth. The country's small size and high population-densitysuggest a limit, over the longer term, to the sustained growth of tourism.Unemployment is still high, while shortages of skilled labor prevail in somesectors of the economy, and agricultural labor is difficult to obtain.

xii. The Government's development objectives for the coming years are,therefore, to: (a) sustain rapid economic growth and reduce unemployment,mainly by promoting a sustained expansion of tourism and manufacturing, andincreased sugar production; (b) achieve a higher degree of economic and exportdiversification by promoting manufacturing and non-sugar agricultural ex-ports; (c) achieve a higher degree of self-sufficiency by promoting energyconservation, the development of traditional and non-traditional sources ofenergy, increased non-sugar agricultural production, and the use of mineralresources; and (d) increase the opportunity of the population to satisfy itsbasic needs, mainly by improving health and education services, and by in-creasing access to low cost housing. As in the recent past, the governmentintends to carry out its development objectives in a framework of financialstability. Also, as in the past, the government's development strategy is torely on private sector investment to provide the main impetus to economicgrowth. Accordingly, the aim of public sector capital expenditures is mainlyto provide supporting infrastructure and incentives to the private sector, aswell as basic social services.

xiii. Overall, the government's development objectives are sound andrealistic. They are consistent with Barbados' resource potential, and alsowith past economic experience. Their achievement, however, will requireclose attention to, and, resolution of the issues, constraints, and policieswhich are discussed below.

xiv. Once economic growth resumes in the OECD countries, the prospectsfor the continued expansion of tourism are good. Since Barbados is likely toface more intense competition from other Caribbean countries, this outcomewould require that price competitiveness be maintained, and that social atti-tudes continue to be favorable towards tourism. Since the winter of 1980, andthrough the winter of 1981, hotel rates have increased at an annual rateexceeding 20%. The government and representatives of the private sector areaware that this trend should not continue and intend to use their leadershipto this effect. The government also intends to maintain a favorable socialenvironment and to promote more value added per visitor.

xv. Manufacturing exports have increased rapidly in the last few years.The government continues its promotion activities and is also increasingfactory space. Furthermore, the government has recently established anExport Promotion Corporation to provide technical and marketing assistance todomestic exporters. Prospective investors continue to show strong interestin Barbados. Therefore, the prospects for the continued expansion of produc-tion and exports are good. As in tourism, however, successful export expan-sion will require that price competitiveness be maintained. Nominal wageincreases in manufacturing averaged about 17% annually during 1980-1981.

- iv -

There is concern, but not consensus, that such wage increases exceeded produc-tivity gains. Greater wage restraint may be needed for the maintenance ofcompetitiveness.

xvi. Sugar production during the second half of the 1970s averaged107,000 tons. The Government's policy is to raise sugar production to150,000 tons and there is reason to believe that, through improved yields,average production could be substantially increased. To achieve a sustainedincrease in sugar production, it would be necessary not only to reduce furtherthe practice of cane burning, but also to speed up mechanization in order toovercome labor shortages. In addition, to increase yields and to ensure thatthe different factors of production are properly adapted to mechanical har-vesting, it would be necessary to: (a) intensify agronomic research toestablish cane varieties and farm practices better suited to mechanical har-vesting; (b) better adapt farm management and labor to mechanical harvesting;and (c) intensify technological research to improve on the locally developedmechanical harvester. Also, to maintain technical efficiency, and avoidbottlenecks, it would be necessary to continue the process of modernizing thesugar factories. The Government is aware of these needs, and has begun totake action in some of these areas. For example, it is helping small farmersto obtain and improve farm machinery and farm machinery sources; it is pro-viding credit facilities for the modernization of the sugar factories; and itintends to establish a research fund. This combination of recommendationsamounts to a substantial task that can only be achieved over the medium termand will require the combined efforts of the private sector and thegovernment, as well as external technical and financial assistance.

xvii. The government has also given priority to increased production ofvegetables. Barbados offers good conditions for growing vegetables duringmost of the year, and the availability of water supply has been recentlyestablished. Therefore, the prospects for self-sufficiency and for exportsare good. For these prospects to materialize, however, it would be necessaryto strengthen the Ministry of Agriculture and the marketing system.

xviii. Many important activities are taking place in the traditional ener-gy sector. The Barbados Light and Power Company (BLPC) has initiated a majorexpansion project which should ensure an adequate supply of electric power.Under governmental licensing, a subsidiary of Mobil Corporation is carryingout deep (below 6,500 feet) oil drilling activities, and is also undertakingan island-wide seismic survey. External technical assistance is being pro-vided to the government to monitor and interpret the results of these activi-ties, but more assistance may be needed.

xvix. The government and the private sector have also taken measures toincrease the use of existing fuel resources and to develop alternative sourcesof energy. For example, some of the oil-associated natural gas, that waspreviously vented, is now used to supply the BLPC power grid. A test of thefeasibility of supplying excess bagasse-generated power to the national gridwas recently carried out with success. Solar water heaters have beeninstalled and there is scope for further uses. The government is consideringthe use of wind and wave energy. Technical assistance is being requested tostudy their feasibility.

xx. The Government and the private sector are interested in implement-ing an effective energy conservation program. Barbados has a good start inthis area since prices of petroleum products broadly reflect economic values.The government has obtained technical assistance from external sources, and amodest start has been made in areas such as energy accounting, and energyaudits. Also, preliminary steps have been taken to improve the bus fleet, andthere are plans to reduce traffic congestion. Minor fiscal incentives already

- v -

exist, and the BLPC has started a motivation campaign. These efforts shouldbe intensified, and further technical assistance requested as appropriate.It would also be necessary to improve the institutional organization and toestablish advisory services to industry, commerce and domestic consumers.Once the results of the energy audits are available, it may be desirable toestablish long-term credit facilities to induce retrofitting.

xxi. Barbados has relied on the private sector to provide the main im-petus to economic growth. This strategy has proved very successfu-l. Thegovernment intends to continue this strategy with the increasing partici-pation of Barbadian residents. The government has recently taken measures tofoster domestic private savings and investment. Previous Bank reports havepointed out that because of inflation and the corresponding nominal salaryincreases, marginal tax rates were relatively high at low real income levels.The reports also pointed out the possible negative effects of such high rateson private savings, and on the supply of professional and managerial labor.In FY1980/81, the government reduced marginal tax rates, and in FY81/82 itincreased personal allowances.

xxii. In the last two years, financial savings have increased at a lowerrate than GDP. This less than optimal performance of financial savings may berelated to increased interest rate differentials between financial marketsabroad and Barbados. This factor may have also contributed to the low levelsof net external private capital inflows that have been estimated for 1980.The government increased interest rates during 1980 and is presently review-ing its interest rate policies. This matter should be kept under constantreview. The goal of increasing Barbadian participation in the economy wouldrequire an increasing share of domestic savings in total investments. Thismay require, among others, further modifications in interest rate policy.

xxiii. Barbados has traditionally given high priority to investment inhuman capital. This has been a key factor in attaining rapid economic growth.Nevertheless, shortages of skilled and managerial labor persists, and unem-ployment among unskilled youth is very high. The government, with externalassistance, has recently stepped up its training programs. It has also begunto improve the quality and effectiveness of general education. These in-creased activities are essential if economic growth is to continue at highrates.

Public Sector Investment and Financing

xxiv. As part of their development objectives and strategy, the authori-ties formulated in FY79-80 a four-year, BD$620.0 million public sector in-vestment and financing program. In this program, the directly productivesectors and economic infrastructure account for about 52% of capital expendi-tures; housing and social services for about 38%; and public buildings andother works for the remainder.

xxv. While carrying out the program, the authorities have identified newinvestment activities for the coming years. They have also updated theirestimates of ongoing projects to account for changes in project cost, timingand scope. On these bases, the mission has estimated public sector capitalexpenditures for the next five years at about BD$1,020.0 million or 8.5% ofestimated GDP. Both, the relative size, and the sectoral composition of theestimated five-year program, are similar to those of the original four-yearprogram. Both are also consistent with the government's development object-ives and strategy, and with reasonable estimates of public savings and ex-ternal assistance.

- vi -

xxvi. As indicated in previous Bank reports, if the public sector invest-ment program is to be successfully undertaken, constraints to all stages ofproject identification, preparation, and implementation need to be reduced.The most important constraint refers to the country's short supply of skilledlabor, middle management, and project managers. This constraint has alreadyaffected somewhat the execution of externally financed projects. As indi-cated above, the government is acting to reduce this constraint. The govern-ment is also seeking technical assistance to further improve its planning andexecution capacity.

xxvii. In recent years, public sector savings have financed a significantpart (67%) of public investment. Since Barbados' private-sector-oriented dev-elopment model is not compatible with large amounts of domestic borrowing bythe public sector, and since external capital inflows can only cover a reason-able part of the program, the savings performance of the past few years shouldbe continued. The contribution of public savings to the program has beentargeted in this report at about 65%, requiring average public sector savingsof the order of 5.5% of GDP. This target should not prove unduly difficult toachieve but would require careful management of the finances of the centralgovernment and improving the finances of the public enterprises.

xxviii. The government's efforts to achieve reasonable levels of publicsector savings should be supported by adequate amounts of external projectfinancing. Also, moderate amounts of CDF-type financing would be needed to:a) ensure that domestic borrowing does not impair on the availability ofcredit to the private sector; and b) maintain prudent levels of foreignexchange reserves.

Growth and Balance of Payment Prospects

xxvix. Economic activity is likely to slow down substantially during 1981.Because of increased cane burning, unseasonal rainfall, and a late harvestingstart, sugar production is likely to decline by about 18%. Tourist arrivalsare likely to stagnate again. Manufacturing is the only major sector which isexpected to continue exhibiting fairly rapid growth. Real GDP growth for 1981is estimated at only 1.5%.

xxx. Because of low economic growth and of further personal income taxconcessions, public sector savings are likely to decrease in relation to GDP.Public sector capital expenditures should remain high because major projectsare ongoing. Consequently, the overall deficit of the public sector is likelyto increase to about BD$86 million or 4.7% of GDP as compared with 3.9% of GDPin 1980.

xxxi. Since sugar exports will decline, and tourist arrivals stagnate,real export growth would be minimal. Real import growth would be high, mainlybecause of sustained high levels of investment. The current account deficitis thus likely to increase to about 7.5% of GDP as compared with 2.2% in 1980.

xxxii. Despite short-term problems, Barbados medium-term prospects con-tinue to be good. Given a continuation of present policies and strategy,relatively high growth rates can be achieved during 1982-1985 while maintain-ing financial stability. Manufacturing could increase by about 5% per year.Once economic growth resumes in the OECD countries, tourist arrivals shouldincrease by about 6%, which is the estimated average for the Caribbean. Inthe past, tourism in Barbados has exceeded the Caribbean's growth rate, but in

- vii -

the coming years Barbados is likely to face more intense competition. Aver-age sugar production has been estimated at 120,000 tons, about the averageobtained in the three best recent years. Annual average GDP growth could beof the order of 4%.

xxxiii. Export growth has been estimated at 5.5%. Tourism and industrialexports would provide the main stimuli. Import growth has been estimated at4%. Thus, the current account deficit would be reduced from 7.5% of GDP in1981 to an average of 4.3% of GDP in 1982-1985.

xxxiv. The import and current account estimates for 1982-1985 assume that:(a) public sector savings would increase to about 5.5% of GDP; (b) privatesector financial assets would increase to about 44% of GDP as compared with43% of GDP in 1981; (c) net domestic credit expansion would be broadly inline with anticipated nominal GDP growth - about 14%; (d) net non-CDF-typeofficial capital inflows -including guaranteed debt - would amount to someBD$296.0 million; and (e) private capital inflows would amount to aboutBD$220.0 million. The government's needs for external project financing havebeen estimated at BD$315 million. Commitments on ongoing projects amount toBD$122 million. The remainder BD$193 million would have to be obtained fromnew commitments.

xxxv. Because economic and financial conditions are likely to be diffi-cult during 1981, CDF-type financing needs for FY1981-1982 have been esti-mated at BD$41 million. Of this amount, Bd$6.0 million would be disbursedfrom existing commitments, and Bds$15.0 million from the Venezuelan andTrinidad oil facilities. Bds$20.0 million would have to be obtained from newcommitments.

xxxvi. Since economic and financial condition are anticipated to improveafter 1981, it is likely that only moderate amounts of CDF-type financingwould be needed during FY82/83 -FY85-86. Total CDF-type financing for thislatter period has been estimated at Bds$ 50.0 million. Of this amount aboutBDs$4.5 million would be disbursed from present commitments, and aboutBds$19.0 million from the Venezuelan and Trinidad Oil Facilities. The remain-der Bds$26.5 million would have to come from new commitments. These estimatesfor FY 82/83 - 85/86 are only indicative, and CDF-type financing needs maywell turn out to be larger, if economic developments don't turn out to be asanticipated.

xxxvii. Barbados is vulnerable to external developments, and the scenarioestimated in this report is by no means the only one possible. As recommendedin previous Bank reports, it is essential to monitor closely economic develop-ments, and to provide for contingency planning. This planning should alwaysinclude a proper foreign exchange reserve cushion. It could also include aminimum level of public sector investment, with additional tranches beingimplemented as external and domestic developments, including the capacity ofthe construction sector, indicate.

xxxviii. Because of the country's developmental needs, Barbados' externalpublic debt--including guaranteed debt--is estimated to increase from about17.5% of exports in 1980, to about 30% of exports in 1985. Given anticipatedexport growth, and given that most of the new debt would be contracted onconcessional terms, the debt service ratio would continue to be low. In viewof Barbados' past and prospective good economic management, the countryshould be considered creditworthy for loans on conventional terms.

BARBADOS

I. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

General

1. Barbados, the most easterly of the Caribbean islands, is oneof the most densely populated countries in the world. Its total area of166 square miles, and population of 253,000, give it a density of 1524 persquare mile. Population growth has traditionally been low and is currentlybelow 1%. Barbados has become, over the last two decades or so, one ofthe more developed countries in the Commonwealth Caribbean. Within theCommonwealth Caribbean, its per capita income in 1979 (US$2,400) wassurpassed only by oil-rich Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas. 1/

2. Economic development has been achieved with social and politicalstability. Barbados' income distribution is relatively equitable, and healthand education facilities relatively good. A shortage of adequate housing,however, affects the lower income groups. Barbados has a long history ofconstitutional government. The country attained self-government in 1961, andbecame independent in 1966. Social and political stability, and well conceivedand implemented governmental policies, have fostered an excellent investmentclimate. Barbados' population is highly motivated and well educated, and itseconomic infrastructure well developed.

3. Barbados' natural resources are limited. Soil, topography, andrainfall have contributed to the traditional emphasis placed on sugar canewithin the agricultural sector. No metallic mineral deposits are known, butpockets of petroleum and natural gas now supply a modest fraction of consump-tion. In the last couple of decades, the country's most valuable naturalresources have been its beautiful beaches and mild weather, which presentlyattract almost 400,000 tourists annually.

Major Economic Developments

4. The mid-1950s marked an important milestone in Barbados' economicdevelopment. After three centuries of exclusive dependence on sugar, theeconomy began at that time a process of economic diversification and struc-tural change. This process has been mainly characterized by: (a) the emer-gence of manufacturing--initially inward looking but increasingly export-oriented--and tourism as important economic sectors; and (i) the emergence ofgovernment as an important economic force, both in itself, and through theprovision of fiscal incentives and economic infrastructure to support privateinvestment.

1/ World Bank Atlas methodology.

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5. Substantial rates of economic growth have been characteristicsince the mid-1950s. From the mid-1950s, through the 1960s, real GDP growthis estimated to have averaged 5% per year. Tourism and manufacturing werethe leading growth sectors. Sugar production remained high during most ofthis period but began a steady decline after 1967. 1/ Most of this periodwas characterized by large amounts of private investment and external privatecapital inflows; by favorable external demand; and by stable import prices.

6. Economic growth was lower in the early 1970s. Tourism and manufac-turing expanded, but sugar continued its decline; investment and constructionalso declined. Adverse external developments affected the performance ofmanufacturing (1974) and tourism (1975), and, as a result, economic activitydecreased in 1974, and almost stagnated in 1975.

7. Economic performance since 1976 has been good. The partial economicrecovery of the OECD countries, increased levels of private investment intourism and manufacturing, and a partially recovered sugar production, contri-buted, during 1976-79, to annual rates of growth of about 6%. This rapid rateof growth reduced the unemployment rate from an estimated 25% in 1975 to about13% in 1979. Given the openness of the Barbadian economy, inflation duringthis period generally followed international trends.

8. Because of a sharp reduction in sugar prices, which affectedreceipts from a special sugar levy, public finances were relatively weakduring 1976. They have been strengthened since. The strengthening ofpublic finances has been mainly due to discretionary increases in consumptiontaxes, and to a policy of restricting the growth of current government expen-ditures. Public sector savings during 1976-79 averaged 4.6t of estimated GDP.Public sector investment averaged 7.6% of estimated GDP.

9. The balance of payments has also been strengthened since 1976.In 1976, a sharp drop in sugar prices led to a high (10% of GDP) currentaccount deficit. Since then, because of a strong export performance, and ofdemand management measures (1977-78), that have kept import growth belowexport growth, 2/ the current account deficit has decreased to about 4% of GDPin 1979. The strengthening of the balance of payments has been achieved inspite of a deterioration in the terms of trade.

10. Relatively large amounts of external private capital inflows,and moderate amounts of public external borrowing, have enabled Barbadosto finance its current account deficits, and to provide for moderate increasesin international reserves. Gross official reserves were equivalent, at theend of 1979, to only 2.2 months of retained merchandise imports. Given theopenness of the Barbadian economy, this level is relatively low.. 3/

1/ The reasons for the decline in sugar production are discussed in Chapter II.

2/ Real export growth during 1976-79 averaged 12.8%; real import growth 5.8%.

3/ At the end of 1975 and 1978, gross official reserves were equivalent to2.5 months of retained merchandise imports.

Table 1: Composition of GDP 1/

1970 1975 1979

Total 10,0.0 100.0 100.0

Agriculture 14.2 10.0 9.4

(sugar) (10.4) (6.4) (3.5)

Manufacturing 7.9 10.0 10.8

Tourism 8.6 11.6 15.4

Other 69.3 68.4 64.4

1/ GDP at factor cost. Constant, 1976 prices.

Economic Developments During 1980

11. Barbados experienced during 1980, its fifth consecutive year ofrapid economic expansion. The performance of the balance of payments improved.Public finances, however, weakened somewhat, and the rate of inflation increasedmoderately.

12. Because of good rainfall sugar production increased substantially.It reached 135,000 tons: the highest level since 1971. Manufacturing exhibiteda strong performance. The construction sector also appears to have expandedin spite of a shortage of skilled labor. Tourist arrivals stagnated, butbecause of a larger proportion of winter arrivals, which average higher expendi-ture per visitor, value added in the sector increased slightly. Real GDPgrowth for 1980 is estimated at about 5%; nominal GDP growth at about 23%. 1/

13. Since March 1980, the government has been computing a new ConsumerPrice Index (CPI). Prices rose, on the basis of the new index, at an annualaverage of 14.4% 1/ as compared with 13.1% in 1979. Since import prices rosein 1980 at a lower rate than in 1979, the acceleration of prices in Barbadosmust be attributed to a lag effect and to internal factors. Among the latter,the most important are: (a) high levels of internal demand; (b) increasedconsumption taxes; (c) bottlenecks in the construction sector; and (d) rela-tively high wage increases.

14. Employment figures for 1980 are not fully comparable withthose of 1979 because the employment surveys were carried out in different

1/ The implicit GDP deflator (17.5%) is higher than the CPI, because theimplicit GDP deflators for sugar, tourism, government services, andtransportation, whose total share of GDP exceeds 35%, are very high.

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time periods. Partial information, however, shows that unemployment decreasedmarginally to 12.6%. Most of the unemployment seems to be concentrated amongfemales and unskilled youth. Nominal wages increased by an average of 24%,with wage increases ranging fron an average of 20% in the hotel sector, to anaverage of 35% in the construction sector. Most of these increases reflecttwo-year wage awards.

15. Since 1976, the central government's tax policy has been to shiftthe tax burden from direct to indirect taxes. In FY1980/81, the governmentwent a step further in this direction by increasing personal income taxcredits again, and by reducing marginal tax rates for taxable income belowBds 40,000. To compensate for the revenue loss, and to encourage privatesavings, it also extended the coverage of the consumption tax, and increasedother indirect taxes and fees. On a net basis, these fiscal measures, andeconomic growth, led to a real rate of increase in current revenues 1/ thatexceeded that of GDP growth.

16. In accordance with its policy of adjusting public sector wagesevery two years, the central government granted to civil servants a 30%nominal wage increase. The growth of other current expenditures was contained,however, and current expenditures remained constant in relation to GDP.Consequently, the savings of the central government increased to 4.7% ofGDP as compared with 4.3% in 1979.

17. The financial performance of the public sector as a whole, however,was not as strong as in 1979. A less satisfactory performance of the restof the general government--mainly social security--and larger losses incurredby the non-financial public enterprises, outweighted the improved performanceof the central government. Consequently, total public sector savings declinedto 5.4% of GDP, as compared with 5.9% in 1979.

18. As the implementation of the four-year (FY79/80-FY82/83) publicsector investment program gained momentum, capital expenditures and netlending increased, in 1980, to an estimated Bds$149.6 million or 9.3% of GDP.Increased capital expenditures and reduced savings led to an estimated overalldeficit of Bds$63.1 million or 3.9% of GDP, as compared with Bds$18.6 millionor 1.5% of GDP in FY1979/80. Net external financing was sufficient to financethis large deficit, and to allow for a small reduction in domestic financing.Gross project financing and grants amounted to Bds$22.0 million; CDF-type 2/

1/ Current revenues and expenditures are calculated net of receipts andtransfers within the public sector.

2/ CDF-type financing includes: (a) foreign exchange financing for balanceof payments and/or budgetary support which is not earmarked for specificdevelopment projects; and (b) foreign exchange financing of the localcost component of projects. CDF-type financing differs from foreignexchange financing obtained from commercial banks and other financialinstitutions because it is contracted on concessional terms.

financing--including the first tranche of the Venezuelan oil facility 1/--toBds$16.2 million; financing from financial institutions in Trinidad-Tobago toBds$40.0 million; and amortization to 12.2 million.

19. Private sector holdings of financial assets increased at a lowerrate than nominal GDP. This was due to the sluggish growth of time deposits.This, in turn, was probably related to increased interest rate differentialsbetween financial markets abroad and Barbados. 2/ Because of selective creditcontrols, introduced by the central bank to restrain consumer spending, creditto the private sector also grew at a lower rate than GDP. Credit to thepublic sector decreased.

20. Export performance was good. Increased volume and prices of sugarled to a doubling of sugar earnings, which reached US$60.6 million, surpassingthe 1975 level. Manufactured exports also increased substantially (28%) inspite of the international economic climate. This may reflect: (a) the smallshare of Barbados' exports in OECD imports; (b) the subsidiary relations ofBarbados firms with OECD firms; and (c) the high demand for electronic compo-nents which have a large share in Barbados exports. Increased hotel rates anddomestic prices led to a 21% increase in gross tourist receipts which reachedUS$250 million. Total exports of goods and nonfactor services increasedby 29.4% in nominal terms (7.1% in real terms), reaching US$562 million.

21. International inflation, and increased levels of domestic publicand private investment, led to a large increase (29%) in capital goods imports.Consumer goods imports also grew rapidly (22%), although their growth sloweddown in the last quarter of.the year due to the Central Bank's selectivecredit control measures. The fuel import bill increased by US$10.0 3/ millionor some 1.2% of GDP. Imports of non-fuel intermediate goods increased by only12%. Total imports of goods and nonfactor services increased by 24.6% innominal terms (5.9% in real terms), reaching US$598 million.

22. The current account deficit is estimated to have decreased inboth absolute and relative terms. It is estimated at about US$18 millionor 2.2% of GDP, as compared with US$25 million or 3.9% of GDP in 1979.

1/ Barbados' oil imports come from Venezuela and Trinidad-Tobago. Accord-ingly, it qualifies for financial assistance from the oil facilitiesrecently established by these two countries. The Venezuelan oil facilityis already being used, and the Trinidad-Tobago oil facility is alsoexpected to provide financial assistance to Barbados soon. Barbados alsoqualifies for assistance from the Mexican oil facility. No decision,however, has been taken yet on the use of this facility, because of thedifferent technical characteristics of Mexican oil. Barbados' externalliabilities due to the use of the oil facilities are considered, inthis report, as liabilities of the Central government and not of theCentral Bank.

2/ The Central Bank sets the minimum interest rate that can be paid tosavers, but it also fixes the average lending rate. This latter policy,in effect, sets a limit to the interest rate paid to savers.

3/ Fuel imports grew by 6.5% in real terms, and by 35.6% in nominal terms.

23. Net public sector capital inflows are estimated at some US$29million, of which US$20 million represents financing raised from financialinstitutions in Trinidad and Tobago. Net private capital inflows, whichaveraged about US$18 million annually during 1976-79, are estimated to havebeen only US$5 million during 1980. Since there are indications that longterm foreign private investment 1/ remained strong, the drop in privatecapital inflows should be attributed to short-term private capital flows. Itwould appear that short-term capital inflows were negative in 1980 as comparedwith an estimated positive inflow of US$20 million in 1979. This turn-aroundcould be related to high interest rates abroad, and to increased interest ratedifferentials between financial centers abroad and Barbados. 2/

24. The banking system increased its medium and long term foreignliabilities by about US$6 million. Net international reserves increasedby US$22 million. In relative terms, gross official reserves remainedat the equivalent of 2.2 months of retained merchandise imports. Barbados'external public debt is estimated at US$98 million or 12% of GDP. At about2.5% of export earnings, debt service continues to be low.

1/ Refers to both direct and financial investment.

2/ Since private capital inflows are estimated as a residual, an alterna-tive explanation could be that imports are under-recorded. This, how-ever, does not seem to be the case.

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Table 2: Selected Economic Indicators, 1976-80

a/ Average Average1976 1977 1978 1979 198- 1976-79 1976-80

Real GDP Growth (%) 6.5 3.8 4.9 8.0 4.9 5.8 5.6Growth of Tourism (%) 2.8 19.5 16.3 16.4 1.0 13.8 11.0Growth of Manufacturing(%) 17.0 3.2 9.1 1.8 6.0 7.6 7.3Growth of Construction (%) 13.2 -13.7 7.2 13.9 7.0 4.6 5.0Growth of Sugar (M) 5.2 16.6 -15.9 12.7 18.8 3.9 6.7Unemployment Rate (M) 15.5 15.7 13.5 12.8 12.6 - -

Consumption/GDP f/ 94.0 88.4 81.2 83.9 80.9 86.2 84.7Investment/GDP f/ 19.8 20.4 23.6 23.1 23.6 22.0 22.4Export Growth (T.) 5.2 16.4 16.0 13.6 7.1 12.8 11.5Import Growth (M) 3.3 5.0 6.4 9.0 5.9 5.8 6.0Terms of Trade 100.0 99.0 97.2 90.7 93.1Resource Gap/GDP 13.8 8.8 4.8 7.0 4.5 8.2 7.2Current Account/GDPb, 10.2 5.7 1.4 3.9 2.2 4.9 4.2Inflation Rate (7) / 5.0 8.3 9.5 13.1 14.4 - -Import Prices (%)- 4.6 7.9 10.8 19.8 17.3Wage Increases (%) - 12.6 15.2 13.9 14.3 23.9 - -Public Sector Savings/GDP 1.8 3.2 6.4 5.9 5.4 4.6 4.8of which CentralGovernment (1.3) (1.7) (5.1) (4.3) (4.7) (3.3) (3.8)

Public Sector Investment/CDP 7.4 9.2 6.7 7.4 9.3 7.6 8.1

External Financing/GDP &/ 1.4 2.9 3.0 9.9 4.1 2.0 2.6Central GovernmentRevenues/GDP 24.0 24.9 27.5 26.0 26.5 25.7 26.0of which:

Direct Taxation (12.3) (12.3) (14.1) (12.2) (11.5) (12.8) (12.4)Indirect Taxation (10.4) (11.0) (11.5) (12.1) (12.6) (11.3) (11.7)

Central GovernmentCurrent Expenditures/GDP 22.7 23.2 22.4 21.7 21.8 22.4 22.2

a/ = estimated.h/ Averages for period. 1980 figure is not fully comparable because weights have

been changed.c/ Mission estimates. Weighted average of import prices. Weights were allocated

according to geographic distribution of imports.d/ Wage increases usually extend over a two-year period.e/ Central Government.f/ Nominal Ratios.

II. Development Objectives, Issues, and Policies

Background

25. Barbados has experienced, in the last few years, rapid economicgrowth. As a result, per capita income is relatively high and employ-ment has substantially increased. This rapid growth has been achieved withfinancial stability. Public finances have been well managed. External debtratios are low, and international reserves are at prudent, although not high,levels. In addition, over the last two decades or so, Barbados has developeda good economic infrastructure. Also, education and health facilities arerelatively good, and the distribution of income is relatively equitable. Thecountry has a long history of constitutional goverment and political stability,and the investment climate is excellent. Barbados thus begins the 1980'swith a good record of economic and social performance.

26 These achievements should not, however, detract from the difficultdevelopment problems facing the country. Barbados resource base is narrow.Its economy is highly open and, as is to be expected, is still highly dependenton sugar and tourism for most of its foreign exchange earnings. Domesticproduction of petroleum covers only about 20% of fuel consumption. Agriculturehas experienced, over the last two decades, a secular decline. 1/ The smallsize of its population limits the possibilities for internally led growth.The country's small size and high population density suggest a limit, over thelonger term, to the rapid growth of tourism. Unemployment is still high,while shortages of skilled labor prevail in some sectors of the economy andagricultural labor is difficult to obtain.

Development Objectives and Strategy

27. The government's development objectives for the coming years, asoutlined in the 1979-83 Development Plan and in other governmental statementsare, therefore, to: a) sustain rapid economic growth and reduce unemployment,mainly by promoting a sustained expansion of tourism and manufacturing, andincreased sugar production; b) achieve a higher degree of economic and exportdiversification by promoting manufacturing and non-sugar agricultural exports;c) achieve a higher degree of self-sufficiency by promoting energy conservation,the development of traditional and non-traditional sources of energy, increasednon-sugar agricultural production, and the use of mineral resources; and d)increase the opportunity of the population to satisfy its basic needs, mainlyby improving health and education services, and by increasing access to lowcost housing. As in the recent past, the government intends to carry out itsdevelopment objectives in a framework of financial stability. Also, as inthe past, the government's development strategy is to rely on private sectorinvestment (with Barbadians gradually increasing their share of total invest-ment) to provide the main impetus to economic growth. Accordingly, the aim of

1/ The average sugar production obtained during the second half of the 1970sis lower than the one obtained during the 1950s.

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public sector capital expenditures is mainly to provide supporting infrastruc-ture and incentives to the private sector, as well as basic social services.

Issues and Policies

28. Overall, the government's development objectives are sound andrealistic. They are consistent with Barbados' resource potential, and alsowith past economic experience. Their achievement, however, would requireclose attention, and, in certain instances, resolution to the issues, con-straints, and policies which are discussed below either in a sectorial, or ina macroeconomic context.

Tourism

29. Tourist's arrivals increased significantly during 1977-79. At thesame time, occupancy rates improved, the average length or stay increased andthe geographical distribution of visitors is now more diversified. Althoughtotal tourist arrivals have recently stagnated, visitors from the UK andCaricom have continued to increase. The government's and the private sector'spromotional efforts are properly focussed. Also, flight availability, whichhas created problems in some markets, is likely to improve because of presentnegotiations. Thus, assuming capacity keeps pace with demand, once economicgrowth resumes in the O.E.C.D. countries tourist arrivals should increase byabout 6% annually.

30. Since Barbados is likely to face more intense competition from otherCaribbean countries, this outcome would require that price competitiveness bemaintained, and that social attitudes continue to be favorable towards tourism.The issue of competitiveness is particularly relevant because since the winterof 1980, and through the winter of 1981, hotel rates have increased at anannual rate exceeding 20%. 1/ The government and representatives of theprivate sector are aware that this trend should not continue, and intend touse their leadership to this effect. The government intends to maintain afavorable social environment by intensifying its policy of explaining toBarbadians the economic benefits of tourism, and by promoting a less markedseasonality of arrivals.

31. The government also intends to increase further the contributionof tourism to the economy by increasing value added per visitor. To achievethis, the government plans to encourage the construction of large hotels,which create more employment per bed-night, and the upgrading of presentfacilities. Furthermore, promotional efforts are focussing on the middle andupper segments of the market which contribute more to value added. If success-ful, these policies would also compensate, somewhat, for the slowdown in the

1/ Wage increases and increased energy prices are usually given as thereasons for increased hotel rates.

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growth of tourism which is to be expected, over the longer term, because ofthe island's small size and high population density.

Manufacturing

32. Manufacturing production, and particularly manufactured exports, haveincreased rapidly in the last few years. The government's industrial incentivesare generally well conceived and administered; its promotional efforts havebeen successful; and its provision of factory space has proved to be a keyfactor in attracting industrial ventures. Labor relations are good, and theinvestment climate is excellent. The sector is dominated by foreign-ownedenterprises, but recently Barbadians seem more interested in investing inindustrial ventures.

33. The government continues its promotion activities and is alsoincreasing factory space. It is also strengthening the Barbados IndustrialDevelopment Corporation (in charge of promotion and of the factory spaceprogram) and the Barbados Development Bank. Furthermore, the governmenthas recently established an Export Promotion Corporation to provide technicaland marketing assistance to domestic exporters. Prospective investors continueto show strong interest in Barbados. So far, probably because of the smallshare of Barbados' exports, economic conditions in the North American markethave not affected export performance. Therefore, the prospects for thecontinued expansion of production and exports are good. Given past andprospective investments, manufacturing production could increase by about 5%annually, and manufacturing exports by about 10-12% annually.

34. As in tourism, however, this outcome would require that price com-petitiveness be maintained. Nominal wage increases in manufacturing averagedabout 17% annually during 1980-1981. 1/ There is concern, but not consensus,that such wage increases exceeded productivity gains. Although wages aresettled by collective bargaining, the government, by explaining the need forwage restraint, could contribute to the maintenance of price competitiveness.The government should also monitor the availability of air cargo space out ofthe island which, although now improved, has, in the recent past, presentedsome problems to major exporting firms.

Agriculture

35. After the prosperity of the 1950s, which lasted through the 1960s,cane area and yields, and consequently sugar production, declined steadilythrough the mid-1970s. Since then, average yields have been sustained, andcane area has stabilized at around 16,000 ha. The decline in yields has beendue to: (a) extended periods of poor rainfall; and (b) increasing laborshortages which have led to the practice of harvesting burnt cane, as compared

1/ During 1980, wage agreements in manufacturing, mostly extending over atwo-year period, averaged 33.8%.

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with harvesting green cane. 1/ Declining yields, increasing costs, laborshortages, and a strong demand for land for tourism and housing purposes,led to the decline in cane area. 2/

Table 3: Selected Sugar Indicators

Average Average Average1950-67 1970-74 1975-79

Area harvested 19.3 18.6 15.9(t00O ha)

Sugar produced 175.4 127.2 107.4('000 tons)

Sugar tons 9.1 6.8 6.7per ha

36. Sugar production during the second half of the 1970s averaged107,000 tons, with a peak of 120,000 tons in 1977 and a low of 99,600 in 1975.The government's policy is to raise sugar production to 150,000 tons mainlythrough increased yields, and there is reason to believe that average produc-tion could be substantially increased. First, the real price of sugar islikely to increase during the 1980s. Second, some of the lands subject tolow-rainfall have been taken out of production. 3/ Third, the practice ofcane-burning has been outlawed and there is increasing recognition of itsnegative effects. (Recent experience however is not encouraging since the1981 crop was seriously affected by burning.) Fourth, in response to thelabor shortages, Barbados has introduced, with success, the mechanization ofsugar harvesting. 4/ Presently, about 15% of the area is mechanically har-vested.

1/ The harvesting of burnt cane is popular with labor because it reduces thehardships of cane cutting. Mechanical harvesters also work faster inburnt cane. The burning of cane, however, reduces actual and futureyields. This is so, because it affects soil moisture by destroying thetrash blanket. The burning of cane also affects cane quality andfactory efficiency.

2/ The strong demand for land for tourism and housing purposes also led,in certain cases, to the subdivision of estate land into small (2-4acres) plots. This also affected yields but to a lesser extent thanthe factors pointed out above.

3/ Also, based on a reading of historical rainfall cycles, it would appearthat rainfall has been particularly low in the last 10-15 years. Thissuggests that weather conditions might improve in the near future.(Source: The Barbados Sugar Industry: Problems and Perspectives.This report was commissioned by the government, and was carried outby McGregor; Baxter; and Hagelberg.)

4/ A locally made mechanical harvester has also been developed with success.This harvester is better adapted to local conditions.

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37. To achieve a sustained increase in sugar production, however, itwould be necessary to reduce further the practice of cane burning, and tospeed up the process of mechanization. 1/ Further mechanization would, inturn, require the establishment of proper credit facilities for the acquisi-tion and renewal of farmers' equipment, and improved farm machinery services,particularly to small farmers. In addition, to increase productivity, and toensure that the different factors of production are properly adapted tomechanical harvesting, it would be necessary to: (a) intensify agronomicresearch to establish cane varieties and farm practices better suited tomechanical harvesting; (b) better adapt farm management and labor to mechan-ical harvesting; and (c) intensify technological research to improve on thelocally developed mechanical harvester. 2/ Also, to maintain technicalefficiency, and avoid bottlenecks, it would be necessary to continue theprocess of modernizing the sugar factories. The government is aware of theseneeds and has begun to take action in some of these areas. For example,it is helping small farmers to obtain and improve farm machinery and farmmachinery services; it is providing credit facilities for the modernizationof the sugar factories; and it intends to establish a research and developmentfund.

38. This combination of reforms amounts to a substantial task that canonly be achieved over the medium term, and that will require the combinedefforts of the private sector and the government, as well as external technicaland financial assistance. The benefits, however, would also be substantial.For example, at average estimated 1981-85 prices, an average production of,150,000 tons as compared with one of 107,000, would yield US$22.0 millionin additional foreign exchange (gross) per year.

39. The government has also given priority to increased productionof vegetables, root crops and grains. Root crops offer some possibilityfor exports, but at present their return seems to be relatively low. Cornis the largest single item in the import list of farm products, but muchresearch remains to be done to establish its production viability. Therefore,the remainder of this review of the agricultural sector will focus on vegeta-bles, although the issues raised can be applied, as appropriate, to other crops.

40. Available data on vegetable production and consumption are sketchy.Nevertheless, it is generally accepted that total production increased fromthe 1960s through the mid 1970s, and then declined. The situation for individualvegetables, however, varies widely. Meanwhile, increased consumption has ledto increased, although minor (US$3.0 million), imports. Imports are linked incertain instances to seasonal shortages. The uneven performance of vegetableshas been due in part to some of the problems that affected sugar such as laborshortages, and land diversion, but also to lack of proper institutional andmarketing support.

1/ Further mechanization is not likely to displace labor. Rather, it is asurvival response to the declining trend in labor supply, whose reasonsgo beyond relative wages. The most important reasons seem to be socialattitudes, and the hardship and tedium of cane cutting.

2/ Action in all these areas is needed, although to a lesser degree, justto maintain the average production level of the 1970s.

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41. Barbados offers good conditions for growing vegetables during mostof the year, and the availability of water supply has been recently established.Therefore, the prospects for self-sufficiency and, more important, for exportsare good. For these prospects to materialize, however, action must be takenin a number of areas and governmental policies must be reviewed as experiencedictates. The government has recently taken initiatives in a number of areas.For example, it has introduced cash rebates for the purchase of agriculturalmachinery; it has established a tax on idle land; and it has started twoagricultural projects with substantial land reform and irrigation components.Much remains to be done, however, in the areas of institutional support,marketing, and land use.

42. To achieve the government's objectives, it would be necessary toimprove the effectiveness of the Ministry of Agriculture. Extension servicesshould give a higher priority to non-sugar irrigated crops, and extensionmethods and techniques should improve in areas such as demonstration plots,publications and others. The research program should be better defined, andmore applied oriented. Better support must be given to farmers in areas suchas design, construction, procurement, operation and maintenance of irrigationequipment. These activities would require increased qualified staff, betterinternal organization, and better coordination with other agricultural devel-opmental institutions. They would also require external technical and finan-cial assistance. The government is aware of these needs, and has initiatedappropriate actions.

43. The lack of an adequate and suitable marketing system has beenoften identified as one of the main factors inhibiting the development ofnon-sugar agriculture. Most of the marketing (70%) is done by vendorsor "hawkers." The "hawker" system has performed a useful and necessaryfunction, but it lacks a grading system, a price and quantity informationsystem, contractual arrangements, and storage facilities. As a result, ithas led to high levels of waste and risk. Waste, in turn, has led to lowprices to producers and high prices to consumers. Risk, and the lack ofstorage facilities, have discouraged the production of large quantities ofperishable goods. The absence of proper information, and of storage facilities,have also led to frequent seasonal shortages and surpluses.

44. It is necessary, therefore, to review and improve the infrastructureand organization of the marketing system. A proper information system mustbe developed, and marketing and storage facilities built. The BarbadosMarketing Corporation (BMC), a statutory body, is constructing new marketingand storage facilities. Also, the government intends to review the presentmarketing arrangements and to improve BMC's effectiveness. While reviewingthe present marketing arrangements, the government may wish to review the roleit wishes to play in an improved marketing system.

45. The government could also further review its land-use policy. Thisshould include definition and zoning of agricultural land. Also, as the mainexisting constraints to non-sugar agricultural development are reduced, the

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agricultural credit system must be reviewed to ensure that the availability ofcredit is opportune and adequate. 1/

46. The government is also encouraging the development of the fishingindustry since domestic production covers only about 50% of consumption. WithCanadian assistance, a study on the industry potential has been completed,and a considerable number of projects in this area are being implemented orconsidered.

Energy

47. Petroleum supplies about 90% of primary energy, with the balancebeing made up by natural gas, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and bagasse.Domestic crude oil, natural gas and bagasse supply some 25% of presentenergy supply. Proven reserves of hydrocarbons are relatively small. Thoseof crude oil are estimated at 4 million barrels, of which about a third may berecoverable; natural gas is estimated at 10,000 m.c.f. Domestic production ofcrude amounts to some 320,000 barrels. Apparent petroleum consumption hasincreased, during the last five years, at a lower rate than GDP (25% as comparedwith 31%). This is mainly due to adequate pricing, and to the government'spolicy of subsidizing public transportation, and of restricting private motorcar imports, especially large vehicles. Domestic production of petroleumstarted in 1973 and has tripled since 1975. Imports have barely increased(3%) since 1975. In 1980, petroleum imports amounted to 75% of apparentpetroleum consumption, as compared with 91% in 1975. This has reduced theadverse impact on the economy of high oil prices. Imports of crude fromVenezuela amount to some 730,000 barrels per year, and of reformate 2/ fromTrinidad to about 230,000. Petroleum imports reached US$31.3 million in 1980or 6.2% of domestic exports and 3.9% of estimated GDP.

48. Many important activities are taking place in the traditional energysector. The Barbados Light and Power Company (BLPC), with some assistancefrom the government in the form of a debt guarantee, has initiated a majorexpansion project which should ensure, in the coming years, an adequate supplyof power. Under governmental licensing, a subsidiary of Mobil Corporation iscarrying out deep (below 6.500 feet) oil drilling activities in the Woodburnearea which aim at finding large - by Barbados standards - reserves of oil.This company is also undertaking an island-wide seismic survey. No informationis available yet on the results of these exploration and seismic activities.External technical assistance is being provided to the government to monitorand interpret the result of these activities, but more assistance may beneeded. Also, a National Petroleum Corporation has been recently establishedto formulate, coordinate and implement the government's policies in the energysector.

49. The returns of the deep-drilling and seismic activities, whilepotentially large, are of a long-term nature. Meanwhile, given Barbados'need to save foreign exchange, every effort must be made to ensure thatshallow-drilling, which has been the traditional source of Barbados' domesticproduction, is continued.

1/ Although the agricultural credit system needs some improvement, presentlyit is not considered a major constraint.

2/ Reformate is a semi-processed crude oil additive for gasoline production.

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50. In addition to efforts to increase the domestic oil supply, thegovernment has taken measures to increase the use of existing fuel resources.For example, some of the oil-associated natural gas, that was previouslyvented, is now used to supply the BLP power grid. Also, the distributionsystem of the Natural Gas Corporation has been enlarged.

51. There are opportunities for increased utilization and developmentof alternative sources of energy. In the solar energy area, some one hundredsolar water heaters have been installed, mainly in hotels and private residences.The government provides fiscal incentives for solar installations, but sincethere is scope for further uses--air conditioning for example--it would bedesirable to ensure long-term credit facilities for major projects. The sugarfactories rely exclusively on bagasse for fuel, but excess bagasse is eitherwasted or disposed of. A test to establish the feasibility of supplyingexcess sugar-generated power to the national grid was recently carried outwith success. Soon, the sugar industry will supply power to the nationalgrid. Other potential uses of surplus bagasse that have been studied by theprivate sector are feedstock, paper and fibreboard. The government is alsoconsidering the use of alternative sources of energy such as wind and waveenergy. Technical assistance is being requested to study their feasibility.

52. Energy conservation offers the possibility of high returns in arelatively short time period. Barbados has a good start in this area.Prices of petroleum products broadly reflect economic values. For example,gasoline prices are broadly in line with European prices, and exceed thosein the USA. Electricity tariffs are also fairly adequate, and a study oftheir structure will be undertaken later in the year. The only exception toreasonable pricing is natural gas. In the past, to reduce venting, it wasnecessary to carry out a marketing operation with pricing below economicvalue, and with a tariff structure that encouraged consumption. As venting isreduced, however, mainly because of the use of gas by the BLPC, it would beproper to review gas pricing.

53. Good pricing is essential to induce energy conservation. Never-theless, because energy users need full information on conservation oppor-tunities and returns, because price-responses sometimes lag, and becauseprivate and social returns may differ, a successful conservation programrequires a set of complementary attitudes, measures and activities. Theseinclude, among others: (a) a proper institutional organization; (b) a properinformation system; (c) advise to consumers; and (d) an efficient transport-ation system. In certain instances, fiscal incentives and long-term creditfacilities might also be required.

54. The government and the private sector are interested in implementingan effective energy conservation program. The government has obtained technicalassistance from external sources, and a modest start has been made in areassuch as energy accounting, and energy audits. Also, preliminary steps havebeen taken to improve the bus fleet, and there are plans to reduce trafficcongestion. Minor fiscal incentives already exist. In addition, the BLP hasstarted a motivation campaign. These efforts should be intensified, andfurther technical assistance requested as appropriate. At the same time, itwould be necessary to improve the institutional organization by upgrading the

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Energy Planning Unit of the Ministry of Trade, and by establishing a nationaladvisory council with private sector participation. Also, action could betaken to establish advisory services to industry, commerce and domesticconsumers. Once the results of the energy audits are available, long-termcredit facilities might be needed to induce retrofitting, replacement ofinefficient factory boilers and air conditioning systems, and, later on, newprocesses together with pilot or demonstration projects. The building codeshould be revised and standards could be established for major appliances.

55. Some of these recommendations are not costly, and are withinthe technical reach of the government. Others will require external financialand technical assistance. The benefits of an effective conservation program,however, could be substantial. Preliminary and partial surveys carried out inBarbados, and the experience obtained from conservation programs in developedcountries, suggest that savings of up to 20% can be obtained after 4-5 years ofimplementing an effective program. If we assume for Barbados savings ofonly 15%, this would represent, at 1980 prices and consumption levels, annualsavings (gross) of US$4.7 million. At 1985 estimated prices and consumptionlevels, it would represent annual savings (gross) of about US$10.0 million.Required investment is estimated at much lower levels.

Private Sector Investment and Savings

56. In the past, Barbados has relied on the private sector to providethe main impetus to economic growth. This strategy has proved very successful.The government intends to continue this strategy and would also seek anincreasing participation of Barbadians residents. The benefits of increasedparticipation by Barbadians are widely recognized and welcomed by foreigninvestors.

57. Past and prospective investors highly value the country's politicaland social stability and have broad confidence in the governmental policiesthat have been followed since independence. During 1981-82 new investmentdecisions by non-residents may slow down in tourism and manufacturing becauseof the international economic climate and high interest rates abroad. This,slowdown of investment should be, however, short-lived, and the prospects forcontinued high levels of private investment are good.

58. The government has recently been taken measures to foster domesticprivate savings and investment. Previous Bank reports have pointed out thatbecause of inflation and the corresponding nominal salary increases, marginaltax rates were relatively high at low real income levels. The Reports alsopointed out the possible negative effects of such high rates on privatesavings, and on the supply of professional and managerial labor. Since 1976,the government has been introducing allowances and tax credits mainly toprotect lower income groups. In FY1980/81, it increased tax credits andmodified tax rates and taxable income bands. 1/ To compensate for the revenueloss, and to ensure that a reasonable part of the lowered personal-income taxburden was saved, consumption taxes were increased. As a result of these

1/ In the FY81/82 budget, the government also increased personal allowances.

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changes, the personal income tax burden is estimated to have decreased to 5.9%of GDP in 1980/81 as compared with 6.5% in 1979/80. Consumption taxes in turnare estimated to have increased to 3.1% of GDP as compared with 1.8% in 1979/80.The new and old tax rates are presented in Table 4. Other positive measuresfor private savings consist of fiscal and credit incentives for the purchaseof National Development Bonds; tax concessions for the purchase of new sharesin public companies and, the expected establishment of a Stock Exchange.

Table 4. Personal Income Tax Rates

Old Rate Structure New Rate StructureTaxable Income $ Marginal Ratre % Taxable Income $ Marginal Rate %

Up to 3,000 10 Up to 5,000 106,000 20 " " 10,000 208,000 30 " " 15,000 3010,000 35 " " 20,000 4012,000 40 " " 30,000 5016,000 50 " " 40,000 6030,000 60 Over 40,000 70

Over 30,000 70

59. Financial savings (savings and time deposits) increased during1976-1978 at about the same rate than GDP (see Table 5). Given that Barbadoshas political and social stability, and that rapid GDP growth rates wereobtained in that period, one would have expected a more dynamic performance.Furthermore, in the last two years, financial savings have increased at alower rate than GDP, and time deposits, have also increased, during thewhole 1976-1980 period, at a lower rate than GDP. This less than optimalperformance of financial savings may be related, particularly in the last twoyears, to negative real interest rates in Barbados, and to higher nominalinterest rates abroad. These factors might have also contributed to thelow levels of net external private capital inflows that have been estimatedfor 1980.

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Table 5: Private Sector's Holding of SelectedFinancial Assets: Ratios to GDP

January1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Total 42.5 43.3 43.9 44.2 45.6 43.5 -Currency and DemandDeposits 12.3 12.0 12.9 13.0 14.7 13.8 -

Savings and Time Deposits 30.2 31.2 31.0 31.2 30.9 29.7 -(Savings Deposits) (17.4) (19.4) (20.1) (20.1) (20.2) (20.1) -(Time Deposits) (12.8) (11.8) (10.9) (11.1) (10.7' (9.6) -

Memo Items

US Treasury Bill Rate % a/ 5.8 5.0 5.3 7.32 10.0 11.6 14.7Barbados' Rate on 12-Month Time Deposit % b/ 7.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 5.5 6.5 7.8

Differential(US-Barbados) % -1.2 - 0.3 1.2 4.5 5.1 6.9

a/ Discount on new issues of 3-month bills. Annual Average - Source: IMF.

b/ Maximum rate paid during December - Source: Central Bank of Barbados.

The Government increased interest rates during 1980 and is presentlyreviewing its interest rate policies. This matter should be kept underconstant review. The goal of increasing Barbadian participation in theeconomy would require an increasing share of domestic savings in total invest-ment. This may require, among others, further modifications in interest ratepolicy. On the credit side, it would be appropriate to review, in the comingyears, the operations of the financial system to ensure that they are attunedto changing economic and developmental conditions.

Labor Training and Productivity

60. Barbados has traditionally given high priority to investment inhuman capital. As a result, its labor force is well-educated and easilytrainable. This has been a key factor in attaining rapid economic growth.Nevertheless, shortages of skilled and managerial labor persists, and unem-ployment among unskilled youth is very high. The government, with externalassistance, has recently stepped up its direct training programs, and itssupport to the Barbados Institute of Management and Productivity. It has alsobegun to improve the quality and effectiveness of general education. Theseincreased activities are essential if economic growth is to continue at highrates. Since they are recent, however, their impact can not be determinedyet. One area that deserves closer attention, is education in the agriculturalsector. The efforts of the government to improve the institutional supportfor agriculture should be complemented by longer-term efforts to attract youngpeople into agriculture.

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Information

61. In recent years, the economy of Barbados has become more complex.

The quality of statistical and economic information, has improved, but hasnot kept pace with economic development. Economic decision making in thecoming years will require timely and comprehensive data. Industry and tourismshould be the priority areas for improvement in this respect.

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III. Public Sector Investment and Financing

62. As part of their development objectives and strategy, the authoritiesformulated in FY1979/80, a four-year (BDS$620.0 million) public sector invest-ment and financing program. In this program, the directly productive sectorsand economic infrastructure accounted for about 52% of capital expenditures;housing and social services for about 38%; and the remainder was allocated topublic buildings and other works.

63 While carrying out the program, the authorities have identified newinvestment activities for the coming years. They have also updated theirestimates of ongoing projects to account for changes in project cost, timingand scope. On these bases, the mission has estimated public sector capitalexpenditures for the next five years at about BDS$1,020.0 million or 8.5% ofestimated GDP. Both, the relative size, and the sectoral composition of theestimated five-year program, are similar to those of the original FY1979/80-FY1982/83 program. Both are also consistent with the Government's developmentobjectives and strategy, and with reasonable estimates of public sectorsavings, and external assistance.

64. Fxternally financed projects are estimated at about BDS$460.0million or 45% of the program. Of this amount, BDS$195.0 million correspondsto ongoing projects; BDS$160.0 million to new projects already identified bythe authorities; and the remainder BDS$105.0 million to projects to be identi-fied in the coming years for implementation at the end of the program period.About 80% of the externally financed projects correspond to the directlyproductive sectors and to economic infrastructure. The local counterpart tothe externally financed projects is estimated at about 35%.

65 In the agricultural sector, the investment program includes projectsto improve support facilities such as research, marketing and credit, andprojects to increase vegetable self-sufficiency and sugar production. Thetwo vegetable projects included in the program, namely, Integrated RuralDevelopment and Spring Hall Land Lease, have substantial irrigation and landreform components. on the basis of the experience obtained in these projects,and as the institutional infrastructure is strengthened, it may be possible toidentify export-oriented vegetable projects for implementation towards the endof the program period. To support the fishing industry, the program includesexternally financed projects to improve port, storage and marketing facilities,and to increase the fishing fleet.

66. In the industrial sector, the main focus of the program is on theconstruction of factory space and export promotion. In tourism, the programincludes the Heywood Holiday Village Project which was formulated to increasecapacity, but mainly to increase the participation of Barbadians in theindustry. It also includes a coastal conservation project. In the energysector, the program provides for the construction of an LPG extraction plant,and for improving the gas transmission and distribution systems. If presentefforts to find additional oil and gas reserves are successful, there could bescope for the inclusion of other energy projects for implementation towardsthe end of the program period. There could also be possibility for energyconservation projects, and for projects to tap alternative sources of energy.

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67. In the transportation sector, the program includes projects to

support tourism, agriculture and industry, and projects to rehabilitate roads,increase the bus fleet, and diminish traffic congestion. Some of theseprojects would also contribute to energy conservation.

68. Several externally financed social infrastructure projects arepresently being carried out. In the health sector they include the BridgetownSewerage Project, and community health clinics. In the education sector thiyinclude the expansion of the Polytechnic Institute and the rehabilitation ofprimary and secondary schools. A basic needs employment-oriented project willalso start soon. In the future, the Government intends to finance most ofits social Projects from domestic sources, but would seek external assistancefor housing, student loan funds, and a sewage reuse pilot project.

69. As part of its policy to promote the use of mineral resources andincreased self-suffiency, the Barbadian Government has concluded arrangementswith the government of Trinidad and Tobago for the establishment of a cementplant in Barbados. A private company is being established to carry out thisproject. The cost of the project - including working capital and interestduring construction - is estimated at US$94.0 million (1984 prices). Supplierscredits (Austria) would provide US$35.0 million; eurocurrency loans US$10.0million. Other loans and equity (US$30.0 million) would cover the remainder.The plant is expected to have its own power generating capacity. Barbados'share in the project will be 51% and, accordingly, it will guarantee 51% ofdebt. Only the equity contribution has been included in the investmentprogram presented in this report. The rest has been considered privateinvestment. The plant is expected to begin operations in 1985. Total produc-tion would be 300,000 tons per year. Barbados imports of cement in 1985 areestimated at some 120,000 tons. An Austrian firm has undertaken to export tothe Caribbean the excess production. This project was not included in theoriginal FY1979/80 - 1982/83 program, and the Bank has not yet analyzed itsrentability. Given its large size, and the large amounts of external debtthat are involved, the government should closely monitor its implementationat all stages. Another important project being partially guaranteed by thegovernment is the Barbados Light and Power (BLD) power expansion project whichis essential for future economic development. This project also includescomponents to improve the transmission and distribution systems; to developinstitutional capacity for long-term plannings; and to promote energy con-servation.

70. As indicated in previous Bank Reports, if the public sector invest-ment program is to be sucessfully undertaken, constraints to all stages ofproject identification, preparation, and implementation need to be reduced.The most important constraint refers to the country's short supply of skilledlabor, middle management, and project managers. This shortage has alreadyaffected somewhat the execution of externally financed projects. As indicatedelsewhere in this report, the government is acting to reduce this constraint.Another area for continued improvement lies in project planning, implementa-tion and supervision. In addition to past and ongoing efforts in this area,the government is seeking technical assistance to further improve its planningand execution capacity.

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71. In recent years, public sector savings have financed a significantpart (67%) of public investment. Since Barbados' private-sector-orienteddevelopment model is not compatible with large amounts of domestic borrowingby the public sector, and since external capital inflows can only cover areasonable part of the program, the savings performance of the past few yearsshould be continued. The contribution of public savings to the program hasbeen targeted in this report at about 65%. This would require average publicsector savings of the order of 5.5% of GDP, somewhat above the 5% average ofFY1975/76-79/80, but slightly below the 5.8% average of FY 1978/79 - FY1980/81.

72. The sluggish economic growth anticipated for 1981, and some of thepolicies introduced in the FY 1981/82 Budget, are likely to reduce publicsector savings to about 4.5% of GDP during FY 1981/82. Thus, to achievethe fiscal targets included in this report, which also reflect the government'sown policies, an improved fiscal performance - over FY 1981/82 - would berequired in the coming years. This task should not prove unduly difficult,but would require careful management of the finances of the central government,and improving the finances of the public enterprises.

73. In the past, the Central govenment has been the main contributorto public sector savings. The rest of the general government - mainly socialsecurity - has made a modest contribution, and the non-financial publicenterprises have incurred losses below 1% of GDP. In the coming years, thecontribution of the rest of the general government could diminish slightly, associal security outlays rise. Hence, most of the increased savings effortwould have to come from the central government, and from a reduction in thedeficit of the non-financial public enterprises.

74. Since the recurrent costs of social projects, and the need forinstitutional strengthening, would create some demands on the government'sbudget, current outlays have been projected to grow broadly in line withnominal GDP growth. This would restrict the savings effort to increasedcurrent revenues, and better administration in the non-financial publicenterprises. Among the non-financial public enterprises, Waterworks and theTransport Board have traditionally incurred the largest deficits; followed bythe National Housing Corporation and the Barbados Industrial DevelopmentCorporation.

75. Table 6 presents historical savings ratios, and offers two alterna-tives for reaching the savings target. At one extreme, current revenues wouldhave to rise only slightly, but the deficit of the non-financial publicenterprises would have to be eliminated (A). At the other, current revenueswould have to rise above historical levels (B). Since the government's taxratio is already high, and further significant increases would be difficult toachieve because of the objective of reducing personal income taxation, itseems than an intermediate outcome would be required. The fiscal projectionsincorporated in this report assume an intermediate outcome.

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Table 6: Barbados - Consolidated I/ Public Sector Savings(Ratios to GDP)

Average In Absolute TermsFY75/76- Est. Projected Projected FY81/82-85/8679/80 FY80/81 FY81/82 FY81/82-85/86 (Bds$ million)

Public Sector 5.0 5.4 4.3 3.5 5.5 667.2 667.2

Central Government 3.4 4.7 3.5 4.0 5.0 487.7 609.7

Current Revenue (25.5) (26.5) (25.4) (26.0) (27.0) (3,170.3) (3,292.2)Current Expenditure (22.1) (21.8) (21.9) (22.0) (22.0) (2,682.6) (2,682.6)

Rest of General Government 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 179.5 179.5

Non-Financial PublicEnterprises -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 - -1.0 - -122.0

1/ Net of transfers within the public sector.

76. The government's efforts to achieve reasonable levels of publicsector savings should be supported by adequate amounts of external projectfinancing. Also, moderate amounts of CDF-type financing would be needed to:a) ensure that domestic borrowing does not impair on the availability ofcredit to the private sector; and b) maintain prudent levels of foreignexchange reserves. The estimates for external project and CDF-type assistanceare discussed in the next chapter.

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Table 7: Barbados Publig Sector Investment and FinancingFY 1981/82 - FY 1985/86

(BDs$ Million)

1981182 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total

Public Sector Capital Expenditures 164.3 179.0 192.6 219.4 264.0 1019.3and Net Lending

Central Government 150.0 170.0 183.0 208.0 251.0 962.0

Rest of Public Sector 14.3 9.0 9.6 11.4 13.0 57.3

Financing

Public Sector Savings a/ 78.6 105.2 132.5 164.5 186.4 667.2

Centril Government 64.7 84.2 108.4 137.1 155.3 549.7

Rest of General Government 31.8 33.7 38.5 41.1 46.6 191.7

Public Sector Enterprise -17.9 -12.7 -14.4 -13.7 -15.5 -74.2

Net External Borrowing 83.3 91.8 S1-4 4S 71.8 343.7

Gross Disbursement 97.0 103.8 67.0 62.0 90.0 419%8

Project related b/ 42.0 66.0 55.0 62.0 90.0 315.0CDF-type 41.0 37.8 12.0 - - 90.8

Other c/ 14.0 - - - - 14.0

Amortization -13.7 -12.0 -15.6 -16.6 -18.2 -76.1

Net Domestic Borrowing 2.4 -18.0 8.7 9.5 5.8 8.4

MesDrandum Items

As 1 of GDP

Public Sector Investment 9.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.4

Public Sector Savings 4.3 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 5.5

Net External Borrowing 4.5 4.3 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.8


As 2 of Capital Expenditure




a/ Consolidatedb/ Includes Grants.c/ Financial institutions and suppliers credits.

Source: Ministry of Finance and Mission estimates.

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IV. GROWTH AND BALANCE OF PAYMENT PROSPECTS

SHORT-TERM (1981)

77. Economic activity is likely to slow down substantially during 1981.As a result of increased cane-burning, unseasonal rainfall, and a late harvestingstart, sugar production is likely to decline by about 18%. Tourist arrivalsare likely to stagnate again, with a decrease in traditional visitors made upby visitors coming for sporting and cultural activities like Carifesta. Theconstruction sector, which is close to full capacity because of skilled laborshortages, in unlikely to exhibit strong growth. Manufacturing is the onlymajor sector which is expected to continue exhibiting fairly rapid growth.Given this scenario, real GDP growth is estimated at only 1.5%, with nominalGDP growth at about 13.5%.

78. The finances of the public sector are likely to deteriorate somewhat.As a result of low economic activity, of further personal income tax concessions 1/without any significant increase in other sources of revenue, and of necessarycredit restraints to consumption, public sector revenue and savings are likelyto drop by about 1% of GDP. 2/ Since major projects are ongoing, public sectorcapital expenditures should remain high - at about 9% of GDP. Hence, theoverall deficit of the public sector is estimated to increase to about 4.7% ofGDP as compared with an estimated 3.9% for FY 1980/81.

79. The financing of this deficit, amounting to some Bds $86.0 million wouldpresent some problems if adequate amounts of external assistance are not obtained.Gross external project financing and grants are estimated at Bds$ 42.0 million;suppliers credits, and loans from financial institutions at Bds$ 14.0 million;amortization at Bds$ 13.7 million; and, consequently, net external financingat Bds$ 42.3 million. This leaves a financing gap of Bds$ 43.7 million. Thefinancing requirements of the private sector, and the need to keep foreignexchange reserves at prudent levels, indicate that the banking system would beable to provide only about Bds$ 3.0 million in domestic financing. Thus,CDF-type financing needs have been estimated at about Bds$ 41.0 million. Ofthis amount, Bds$ 6.0 million would be disbursed from existing commitments,and Bds$ 15.0 million from the Venezuelan and Trinidad oil facilities. Bds$20.0 million would have to be obtained from new commitments.

80. Since sugar exports would decline, and tourist arrivals stagnate,real export growth would be minimal (1.4%). Inflation, however, would lead to anominal increase of about 12% in foreign exchange receipts. Real importgrowth would be high (9.5%) but mainly because of sustained high levels ofinvestment, and because of the start of the large power and cement projects.Nominal import growth is estimated at about 20%.

81. The current account deficit is thus likely to increase significantlyto about 7.5% of GDP as compared with 2.2% in 1980. Adjusted for the largecapital imports linked to the power and cement projects, the current accountwould have increased to only 4.7% of GDP. This estimate of the current

1/ The FY 1981/82 budget introduced further personal income tax concessions.

2/ The ratio of current expenditures to GDP is estimated to remain constant.

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account assumes non-CDF capital inflows - including guaranteed debt - ofabout Bds$ 54.0 million, and private capital inflows -- mostly linked to thepower and cement projects -- of about Bds$ 54.0 million. It also assumes thatthe authorities would provide for a net domestic credit expansion broadly inline with nominal GDP growth. Provided that Barbados is successful in obtainingthe CDF-type financing indicated above, international reserves could increaseby some US$8.0 million, which is the amount needed to keep gross officialforeign exchange reserves at a minimum of 2.0 months of retained merchandiseimports.

MEDIUM-TERM (1982-,85)

82. Despite short-term problems, Barbados medium-term prospectscontinue to be good. Given a continuation of present policies and strategy,relatively high growth rates can be achieved while maintaining financialstability.

83. Given past and prospective investment, manufacturing could increaseby about 5% per year. 1/ Once economic growth resumes in the OECD countries,tourist arrivals should increase by about 6% which is the estimated averagefor the Caribbean. In the past, tourism in Barbados has exceeded the Caribbean'sgrowth rate, but in the coming years Barbados is likely to face more intensecompetition. Given current seasonal occupancy rates, present and prospectivecapacity seems to be adequate up to 1983: new investment may be required toaccommodate visitors beyond 1983. Average sugar production has been estimatedat 120.000 tons. This is about the average obtained in the three best recentyears.

84. Given the projected performance of major sectors, annual average GDPgrowth could be of the order of 4%. Since growth would be led by tourismand industry, the share of these two sectors in GDP should increase. Theshare of non-sugar agriculture would increase slightly and the share of sugarwould decrease. These projections assume that the most of the government'sobjectives with respect to sugar production and non-sugar agriculture wouldbe achieved during the second-half of the 1980's. This estimated GDP growthwould require average investment of about 23% GDP. Public sector investmenthas been targeted at 8.2% of GDP. Domestic Savings at 18% of GDP; and consump-tion at 82.5% of GDP. Table 10 presents a summary of main economic indicatorsfor 1982-1985 and compares them with past performance.

85. Export growth has been estimated at 5.5%. Tourism and industrialexports would provide the main stimuli. Import growth has been estimated at4.1%. Thus, the current account deficit would be reduced from 7.5% of GDP in1981 to 4.3% of GDP in 1982-85. Excluding the capital imports due to thelarge power and cement projects, which will be carried out throughout most of1982-85, the current account deficit would be of the order of 2.5% of GDPduring 1982-85 as compared with 4.7% of GDP in 1981.

I/ Growth rates for GDP, tourism, manufacturing, exports, and imports arepresented in real terms.

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86. The import and current account estimates for 1982-85 assume that:(a) public sector savings would increase to about 5.5% of GDP; (b) privatesector financial assets would increase to about 44% of GDP as compared with43% of GDP in 1981; (c) net domestic credit expansion would be broadly in linewith anticipated nominal GDP growth - about 14%; (d) net non-CDF-type officialcapital inflows - including guaranteed debt - would amount to some Bds$ 296.0million; and (e) private capital inflows - mainly because of the power andcement project - would amount to about Bds$ 220.0 million. On a fiscal yearbasis, the public sector would require for the whole FY 82/83-FY 85/86 perioda total of Bds$ 273 million in gross project financing and grants. Commitmentsfor ongoing projects amount to Bds$ 195.0 million. The following tablesummarizes the non-CDF type external assistance needs of the public sector.

Table 8: Barbados - Project Financing Needs (Bds$ million)

Sub-total Sub-total TotalFY 81/82 FY 82/83 - FY 85/86 81/82 - 85/86

Project Assistance Needed (gross) 42.0 273.0 315.0

Disbursements from ExistingCommitments 42.0 80.0 122.0

Disbursements from NewCommitments - 193.0 193.0of which projects already identified (-) (122.0) (122.0)

87. Given the underlying assumptions with respect to growth and exportperformance, if public finances perform as anticipated, and if monetary andcredit policies develop as anticipated, only moderate amounts of CDF-typefinancing would be needed during FY 1982/83-FY 1985/86 to ensure an adequatesupply of credit to the private sector, and prudent levels of foreign exchangereserves. 1/ The mission has estimated CDF-type financing needs for thisperiod at about Bds$ 50.0 million. Of this amount about Bds$ 4.5 millionwould be disbursed from present commitments and Bds$ 19.0 million from theVenezuelan and Trinidad Oil Facilities. The remainder Bds$ 26.5 million wouldhave to come from new commitments. The estimates of CDF-type financing needsfor FY 82/83-FY 85/86 are only indicative. If economic conditions don't turnout to be as anticipated, the needs might well be larger. The following tablesummarizes CDF-type financing needs.

1/ Gross official foreign exchange reserves for 1982-85, have been targeted inthis report at a minimum of 2.2 months of retained merchandise imports.

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Table 9: Barbados - CDF-Type Financing Needs (Bds$ million)

Sub-total Sub-total TotalFY 81/82 FY 82/83 - FY 85/86 81/82 - 85/86

Total Disbursements Needed 41.0 50.0 91.0

from Existing Commitments 6.0 3.0 9.0

from Oil Facilities 15.0 19.0 34.0

from New Commitments 20.0 28.0 48.0

88. Barbados is vulnerable to external developments, and the scenarioestimated in this report is by no means the only one possible. As recommended inprevious Bank reports, it is essential to monitor closely economic developments,and to provide for contingency planning. This planning should always includea proper foreign exchange reserve cushion. It could also include a minimumlevel of public sector investment, with additional tranches being implementedas external and domestic developments, including the capacity of the constructionsector, indicate.

89. Because of the country's developmental needs, Barbados' externalpublic debt -- including guaranteed debt -- is estimated to increase fromabout 17.5% of exports in 1980, to about 30% of exports in 1985. Givenanticipated export growth, and given that most of the new debt would becontracted on concessional terms, the debt service ratio would continueto be low. In view of past and prospective good economic management, thecountry should be considered creditworthy for loans on conventional terms.

- 29 -

Tablel0.: SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 1981-85

Projected ProjectedProjected Average Average

1976-80 1981 1981-85 1982-85

Real GDP Growth (%) 5.6 1.5 3.5 4.0

Growth of Tourism (%) 11.0 - 4.8 6.0

Growth of Manufacturing (%) 7.3 5.0 5.0 5.0

Growth of Sugar Production (Z) 6.7 -18.5 -2.3 2.51/Consumption/GDP.= 84.7 84.0 82.4 82.1

Investment/GDPl/ 22.4 25.3 23.4 23.1

Export Growth (%) 11.5 1.4 4.4 5.5

Import Growth t%) 6.0 9.5 5.2 4.1

Resource Gap/GDP 7.2 9.3 5.8 5.2

Current Account/GDP 4.2 7.5 4.7 4.3

Public Sector Savings/GDP-/ 4.8 4.3 5.5 5,7

Public Sector Investment/GDP,/ 8.1 9.0 8.4 8.2

Central Government External Financing/GDP 2.0 4.0 2.8 2.6

Gross Official Reserves/ 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3Months of Retained Mechandise Imports

Private Sector Financial Assets/GDP 44.1 43.0 43.7 43.8

1/ Nominal ratios.

Source: Mission estimates.

-30-

Table 11: PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1980-85

(US$ million)

Actual Estimated Projected1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 434.2 561.7 631.0 718.0 823.0 942.0 1076.0

Goods 155.9 227.7 250.0 275.0 310.0 350.0 397.0

Domestic 120.3 168.6 180.0 205.0 240.0 280.0 327.0

Sugar-Molasses 32.5 60.6 48.0 47.0 52.0 58.0 63.0Other 83.8 108.0 132.0 158.0 188.0 222.0 264.0Balance of PayDent AdjustmentLl 4.0 - - - -

Re-Exports 35.6 59.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0

Non-Factor Services 278.3 334.0 381.0 443.0 513.0 592.0 679.0

Travel (gross) 208.0 251.0 285.0 334.0 389.0 452.0 522.0Other 70.3 83.0 96.0 109.0 124.0 140.0 157.0

Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 480.0 598.3 716.2 810.3 904.6 990.7 1124.1

Goods 407.0-/ 508.3-/ 611.2 689.3 766.6 832.7 945.1

Retained Imports 371.421 449.22' 541.2 619.3 696.6 762.7 875.1

Re-Exports 35.6 59.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0


Resource Balance -45.8 -36.6 -85.2 -92.3 -81.6 -48.7 -48.1

Net Factor Services - 1.4 - 3.5 - 5.5 -10.6 -13.0 -15.2 -15.9

Current Transfers 22.0 22.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 28.0.

Current Account Deficit -25.2 -18.1 -68.7 -78.9 -68.6 -37.9 -36.0

Net Public Disbursements 7.6 29.3 46.3 66.6 49.9 28.9 32.1


Gross Disbursements 9.6 31.9 41.9 50.3 37.9 31.6 41.5

Project-related - 6.9 17.4 31.3 28.9 30.1 41.5

CDF-type 0.8 5.0 19.5 19.0 9.0 1.5 -Oil facilities - 8.5 8.0 2.5 -Othei 0.8 0.8 11.0 11.0 6.5 1.5 _

Other / - 20.0 5.0 - - - -

Grants .5 .7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Amortization - 4.7 - 6.0 - 6.1 - 5.3 - 7.7 - 8.2 - 9.0

Government Guaranteed (Net) 2.2 2.7 9.5 20.6 18.7 4.5 - 1.4

of which: Power Expansion - - 3.3 8.0 6.2 - - 1.6Cement Plant - - 3.0 11.0 10.5 2.5 - 1.8

Private Capital 25.2 4.8 27.2 36.0 30.8 25.5 16.7

Power Expansion - - 15.2 10.0 - .7 8.0 3.4Cement Plant - - 7.0 16.0 16.5 2.5 - 1.7Other 25.2 4.8 5.0 10.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

Commercial Bank (Medium & Long Term) 1.4 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Central Bank (Medium & Long Term) 0.2 0.2 - 0.8 - 3.0 - -

Net International Reserves - 9.2 -22.0 - 8.0 -24.7 -16.1 -20.5 -16.8

j Sugar Valuation Adjustment

/ Loans from financial institutions and Suppliers Credits3/ Differs from custom figures because of adjustment made to retained fuels imports.

Sources Cantral Bank, Barbados Statistical Office, Mission Estimates (1981-1985)

- 31 -

ANNEX IPage 1 of 2

MAJOR RECENT FISCAL MEASURES

1979/80 Budget

1. Reduction of corporation tax to 20% on profits derived from housingconstruction.

2. Tax rebate for land developers.3. Increase in income tax credits and allowances.4. Introduction of separate assessment of married persons incomes.5. Elimination of 5%, 15% and 25% income tax rates.6. Introduction of sliding scale for land taxation.7. Abolition of betterment levy.8. Reduction of consumption tax on cement and bitters.9. Increase in consumption tax on liquor, beer, and other beverages.10. Waiver of import duties and consumption tax on certain raw materials

used in the manufacture of fiberglass boats.11. Restructuring of license fees on bicycles, carts and animals.12. Adjustment of rate on highway tax on trucks.13. Increase of 3 cents/liter and 2 cents/liter, respectively, on

the tax on gasoline and diesel.14. Motor vehicle tax on motor cars of c.i.f. value exceeding

US$10,500 to be raised from 30% to 55%.15. Removal of duties and taxes on diesel-powered vehicles imported for

replacement of taxis 10 years and older.16. Increase of water rates.17. Abolition of charge for school meals.18. Increase in Old Age Pensions.19. Increase in bus fares.

1980/81 Budget

1. Increased coverage of consumption tax and the adoption of a standardrate of 5%, except in special cases where higher rates are levied.

2. Increased fees for entertainment and motor vehicles.3. Increased tax on gasoline and diesel fuel.4. Increased water rates.5. Increased company registration fees.6. Imposition of 8% surcharge on proceeds from rental of self-drive cars.7. Imposition of throughput charge on fuel of BDS$0.02/liter on Avgas

and BDS$0.08/liter on Jet Al.8. Increased airport fees.9. Increase in property transfer tax paid by non-nationals.

10. Imposition of charges on idle agricultural land.11. Institution of cash rebates by Government at rates of 10%, 15%, and 18%

for the purchase of agricultural machinery.12. Institution of government guaratee scheme for mortgage loans to

owners of chattel houses.13. Grant of 4% of improved value of houses for maintenance repairs and

certain imprbvements

- 32 -

ANNEX IPage 2 of 2

14. Increase in tax credit from $100 to $300 for persons with gross incomesof $6,000 or less, and grant of tax credit of $100 to persons withincomes between $6,000 and $8,000.

15. Downward adjustment of income tax rates and revision of taxable incomebrackets.

16. Institution of special allowance of persons over 65 who are not coveredby pensions.

17. Introduction of straightline depreciation for companies instead ofreducing balances.

18. Increase in level at which gross incomes of corporate employees may becharged as taxable expenses from $50,000 to $72,000.

19. Imposition of withholding tax of 25% in total earnings of foreignentertainers.

1981/82 Budget

1. Increases in fees charged in the Supreme and Magistrates' Courts.2. Increases in fees for Trade Marks, Patents and Companies Registration

by 25%. Also, fees for registration of Business Names have beenincreased.

3. Property Transfer Tax payable by vendors who are citizens and permanentresidents increased from 2-1/2% to 3% and that payable by otherpersons from 2-1/2% to 8%. Purchasers' tax increased from 15% to 17%.

4. Old Age Pensions (non-contributory) increased to $28 per week andcontributory National Insurance Pension to $33. All other NationalInsurance benefits, except in cases of injury, increased by 10%.Maternity benefits increased by 40%.

5. Training Fund contribution of 0.25% introduced.6. Unemployment Insurance Scheme introduced. Merged with the Severance

Fund. Contributions of 2% to be shared equally by employers andemployees.

7. Annual claim for savings with Credit Union permitted for Income taxpurposes after the initial 2 years.

8. Check-off system introduced to permit purchase of Barbados DevelopmentBank Bonds by public servants on an installment basis.

9. Income Tax deduction allowed for new shares purchased in public companies.10. Reform in Motor Tractor Cultivation Scheme and tillage subsidies.11. Rebate of Land Tax of $150 per hectare to small holders with not less

than .75 hectare who produce evidence to the Commissioner of Valuationsthat the gross value of crops or livestock produced exceeded $1,000per hectare in the preceding financial year.

12. Abolition of Death Duties.13. Increases in Income Tax Allowances. Allowance for single person is

now $2,400 and that for a married person is $4,500. Tax creditsof $360, $240, and $120 have been granted.

14. Increases in grants to approved secondary schools. Value of bursariesalso increased.

15. Increased pensions for retired Sugar Workers who received paymentsfrom the Sugar Workers' Provident Fund.

- 33 -

ANNEX II

BARBADOS

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

1. This report contains a list of major ongoing projects, a list ofprojects for which external finance will be sought during the period 1981-85,and individual project descriptions. The two lists contain the name of theproject, the expected lender(s), if any, the total cost, the externalfinancing required, and the status of readiness of the project. The indi-vidual descriptions contain additional information which would be of interestto potential donors or lenders, including technical assistance requirements.

2. Data for these project lists, which will be presented at theCaribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development scheduled forJune 23, 1981, were provided by the Barbados Government. The projectlist reflects the development strategy of the Government of Barbados, asoutlined in the Economic Memoranda dated May 7, 1979, and May 30, 1980,and in the present one.

- 34 -

Table I: BARBADOS - MAJOR PROJECTS WITH FINANCING

(in millions of 1JS$)

Interest Amorti- Grace Counter- LocalTotal External Rate zation Period part Financing

Projects Cost Financing Source (2) (years) (years) Amount (Z)

Agriculture 18.2 11.1 7.1Agronomic Research Laboratory 2.5 1.5 EDF 1.00 40 10 1.0 40Distin's Fisheries Development 2.8 1.5 EDF Grant - - 1.3 46Integrated Rural Development 6.7 4.1 IDB 2.00 27 8 2.6 39Spring Hall Land Lease 1.2 0.9 CDB 4.00 15 5 0.3 21Expansion of BMC 4.0 2.1 CDB 4.00 15 5 1.9 48Agricultural Credit 1.0 1.0 CDB 4.00 15 5 - -

Industry 26.7 15.9 10.8Cane Separation II 1.0 1.0 CIDA Grant - - - -Industrial Development & Export Promotion 21.9 10.0 IBRD 8.25 15 3 9.5 43

2.4 CDB 8.50 15 5Industrial Estates 3.8 2.0 CDB 8.50 15 3 1.3 34

0.5 CDB 4.00 15 5

Tourism 17.2 13.0 4.2Heywood Holiday Village Project 17.2 8.0 IBRD 7.00 15 3 4.2 24

5.0 CDB 8.00 15 3

Transportation 9.7 5.5 4.2Spring Garden/SJPP Road 8.1 4.4 IDB 7.9 20 4 3.7 46Spring Garden/SJPP Road Study 1.6 1.1 IDB Grant - - 0.5 31

Education 26.0 17.9 8.1S.J. Prescod Polytechnic Institute 11.5 7.9 IDB 2.00 20 7.5 3.6 31Rehabilitation of Primary & SecondaryEducation System 14.5 10.0 IBRD 8.00 15 3 4.5 32

Health 24.8 16.9 7.9Bridgetown Sewerage Project 19.8 13.4 IDB 2.00 27 8 - 6.4 32Community Health Clinics 5.0 3.5 IDB Grant - - 1.5 30

Water 10.4 6.5 3.9Water Development Project 10.4 6.5 CIDA 3.00 30 7 3.9 38

Other 2.0 2.0 -BHN Employment Sector Project 2.0 2.0 USAID 4.00 10 9 - -

TOTAL 135.0 88.8 46.2

- 35 -

Table 11: BARBADOS - MAJOR PROJECTS FOR WRICS FINANCING IS REQUESTED. 1981/82-1985/86

(Io rillioso of US$)

8xternal LocalTotal Fioancing Possible Countorpart ContributionCost Reqoired Soourc A-ount T Statst of Project

Agriculture 26.60 18.45 8.15Sugar Rehahilitation 6.00 4.00 Unknown 2.00 33 Thn prafoo-ibility study haa hono completed.Developrent of FPlherieo 10.00 7.70 CIDA, IDB 2.90 27 IDS cill bh approached for tho rea.el de-elopnent part.Fish Tertinal at Sprightntows 2.50 1.75 EDF 0.75 30 A detailed foa.ibility study and design h.o to bh daon.Fishiog Harbor at Bridgeto.n 7.50 5.00 IDB 2.50 33- Feasibility stody hot bhon completed in narly 1981.

Tra-nport aod Roads 49.10 31.00 18.10Coastal Cosneonution 11.00 6.60 IDB 4.40 40 sDr has appo d the t-ehoial st efr t diagc,.tic

suecy and prefinastiblity studiosRunt Count toad 20.00 12.00 Uksiosa 8.00 40 Prefeaa. bility stady in being den.Accent Rgod - Phase 11 12.00 8.00 IDB 4.00 33 The feasibility study vill start early in the fiscal year.Road Rehabilitation 2.50 2.50 Trinidad-Tobago - - Reqsest for the Tiniodad-Tobago Goernroot to finance the

projert has hone submitted.

Inp-ovoment of Poblic Tra.nport System 3.60 1.90 Vene.e-la/Kleniro 1.70 47 Financing being arranged.

Ed-ucaton 2.00 1.30 0.70Student Loa Fond 1 2.00 1.30 Ifa 0.70 35 Loan .eqoest sill he coot ic early 1981.

Energy 3.70 2.60 1.10LPG Extraction Plant 2.40 1.30 Unknown 1.10 46 Feasibility study ha- been completed.GSo Tran-sision & Dintribhtion System 1.30 1.30 IDB - - Feasibility study is 1till in progress.

Hou.ing 6.00 3.70 2.30Lee Cost hosaing Pragrau 6.00 3.70 CDB 2.30 38 Prfteauibllity study will be andertaken i 1981.

Port 2.00 2.00Contai-er Cra.n Acquisition 2.00 2.00 Cossn-rcial - - Updated costiog has bhro done by conultants.

eailth 1.00 0.60 0.40Bridgeonon Snenrage Esu.e Pilot Scheme 1.00 0.60 Unknown 0.40 40 A feenibility study isoneded.

TOTAL 90.40 59.65 30.75

- 36 -

BARBADOS

1981/82-1985/86 Project List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Sugar Rehabilitation and Mechanization

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture and ConsumerAffairs/Barbados National Bank

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$4.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known.

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION:

a. Description: Rehabilitation of sugar factories and mechanizationof harvesting through credit and technical support.

b. Justification: To increase agriculture production and export earnings.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by TotalLocal External

Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 2.0 - 2.0 33Foreign Costs - 4.0 4.0 66

Total Costs - Amount 2.0 4.0 6.0- % 33 66 99

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD:

Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 2.0 -External Sources _ 0.4 0.8 0.8 2.0 4.0 _

Total - 0.6 1.2 1.2 3.0 6.0

- 37 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study complete.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate) Not known

Amortization Period:

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during periodDebt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: Yes

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: None

- 38 -

BARBADOS



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Development of Fisheries

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture



V. LENDING AGENCY: Possibly CIDA and IDB


a. Description: The project would promote the development of off-shore, deepsea and inland fishing through the pur-chase of fishing vessels, the construction of shore-based storage and marketing facilities, and training.

b. Justification: The project would increase production of fish bothfor domestic consumption and for export.


Financed by TotalLocal ExternalSources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1.5 - 1.5 14

Foreign Costs 1.4 7.7 9.1 86



Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 2.9 -External Sources - 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 5.9 1.8

Total - 1.0 1.8 3.0 3.0 8.8 1.8

- 39 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: IDB will be approached for the vessel develop-ment portion.


Interest Rate: )Not known.Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1982 1983 1984 1985

Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: .12 .21 .21 .21


A. Project Preparation: None

B. Feasibility Studies: Sector development plan

C. Project Implementation: Gear technologist and fisheries economistrequired.

- 40 -

BARBADOS



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Fish Terminal - Speightstown

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture



V. LENDING AGENCY: EEC-EDF


a. Description: Construction of a fishing port with storage facilitiesat Speighstown.

b. Justification: Promotion of fishing industry and development ofnorthwestern region.



Local Costs 0.75 0.25 1.0 40Foreign Costs - 1.50 1.5 60



Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - 0.1 0.2 0.45 - 0.75 -External Sources - 0.4 0.4 0.95 - 1.75 -

Total - 0.5 2.6 1.4 - 2.50 -

- 41 -

BARBADOS

1981/82-1985/86 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Tourist

II. PROJECT TITLE: Establishment of National Parks

III. LENDING AGENCY: France has agreed to fund.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works.

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To conduct a feasibility study on the development of certain identi-fied areas for the establishment of national parks on the North Easterncoast of the islands, with a view to ensuring that environmental qualityof the area in light of increasing pressures for various forms of inap-propriate development is retained. The development of a park would alsoprovide a point of interest for tourists.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services: EngineerPark and Resource Planning SpecialistBeach and Coastal Conservation ExportResource Geographer

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 72

VIII. STATUS: In the discussion stage.

- 42 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A detailed feasibility study and design haveto be done.


Interest Rate: )Amortization Period: N




A. Project Preparation: Prefeasibility study

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes - design of terminal


- 43 -

BARBADOS



I. NAME OF PROJECT: Fishing Harbor at Bridgetown

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Barbados Port Authority



V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB


a. Description: Improved facilities for berthing of fishing vesselswhich now berth at Careenage. Also, haul and repairfacilities in Bridgetown area to replace existingfacilities.

b. Justification: Promotion of fishing industry.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND-FINANCING:



Foreign Costs - 5.0 5.0 67



Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 2.5 -External Sources _ 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.0 5.0 -

Total - 0.6 2.4 3.0 1.5 7.5 -

- 44 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Feasibility study was compledted in early 1981.




Operating and Maintenance Costs: Not knownDebt Obligations: Not known




C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified

- 45 -

BARBADOS


Industry(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Small business loan

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: BDB





a. Description: BDB will provide loans to small businesses. Softterms (2% interest and 40 year repayment period) willenable local enterpreneurs to make innovativeinvestments.

b. Justification: To provide capital for small business.



Local CostsForeign Costs - 0.5 0.5 100

Total Costs - Amount - 0.5 0.5- % - 100 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - - - - - - -

External Sources 0.25 0.25 0.5

Total 0.25 0.25 0.5

- 46 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Loan request has been submitted.


Interest Rate: 2%Amortization Period: 40 years


Operating and Maintenance Costs: NoneDebt Obligations: Not known


A. Project Preparation ))

B. Feasibility Studies ) None)

C. Project Implementation )

- 47 -

BARBADOS


Tourism(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Coastal Conservation

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands

111. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$11.0


V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.


a. Description: Project provides for the study of a serious coastalerosion problem which has resulted in the washingaway of beaches and significant land erosion aroundthe island. It also includes pre-feasibilitystudies for the south and west coasts.

b. Justification: Preservation of beaches and prevention of possiblebeach erosion.






Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - 0.15 0.15 0.6 0.6 1.5 2.9External Sources - 0.35 0.35 0.9 0.9 2.5 4.1

Total - 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 4.0 7.0

- 48 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The IDB has approved the technical assistancefor the diagnostic survey and pre-feasibility studies.


Interest Rate: )Not knownAmortization Period: N





B. Feasibility Studies: Yes (for detailed engineering studyand design)


- 49 -

BARBADOS


Transportation and Communications(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: East Coast Road

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works



V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known


a. Description: Construction and improvement of six to eight milesof road in the northeastern part of the country.

b. Justification: The road would provide access to agricutural areasand open up the region for possible industrial andtourism development.







Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - 1.8 2.8 3.4 - 8.0 -

External Sources - 2.7 4.2 5.1 - 12.0 -

Total - 4.5 7.0 8.5 - 20.0 -

- 50 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study is being done.Feasibility study is needed.


Interest Rate: )NoneAmortization Period: N




A. Project Preparation )

B. Feasibility Studies ) None


- 51 -

BARBADOS


Transportation(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Access Road Phase II




V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.


a. Description: Construction of a by-pass around Bridgetown fromSt. Barnabas to Warrens.

b. Justification: To provide access between the Bridgetown harbor,the airport and a number of industrial estates.It will also ease congestion on existing highways.






Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 4.0 -External Sources - 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.7 8.0 -

Total - 2.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 12.0 -

- 52 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Technical assistance has been approved by IDB.Feasibility study and design will commence soon.


Interest Rate: Not knownAmortization Period: )


Operating and Maintenance Costs: )N dui iodDebt Obligations: N





- 53 -

BARBADOS


Transportation(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Road Rehabilitation




V. LENDING AGENCY: Trinidad Government had been approached.


a. Description: To upgrade roads throughout Barbados.

b. Justification: To make infrastructure improvements necessary forcontinued economic growth.



Local Costs - - 5.0 -


Total Costs - Amount - 2.5 2.5- % - 100 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - - - - - - -

External Sources 0.14 0.55 0.83 0.98 - 2.5

Total 0.14 0.55 0.83 0.98 - 2.5

- 54 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Request for the Trinidad Government to financethe project has been submitted.


Interest Rate: Not knownAmortization Period: Not known


Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period above existing require-ments.

Debt Obligations: Not known



B. Feasibility Studies ) None required


- 55 -

BARBADOS


Transportation and Communications(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Improvement of the Public Transport System




V. LENDING AGENCY: Possibly Venezuela or Mexico


a. Description: To purchase 50 new buses. The chassis will beimported and the body will be fabricated locally.

b. Justification: To improve and provide an adequate public trans-portation system to the entire island.




Total Costs - Amount 1.7 1.9 3.6- Z 47 53 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source 1.0 0.7 - - - 1.7 -External Sources - 0.8 1.1 - - 1.9 -

Total 1.0 1.5 1.1 - - 3.6 -

- 56 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Financing being arranged.


Interest Rate )) Not known

Amortization Period: )


Operating and Maintenance Costs: YesDebt Obligations:


A. Project Preparation:

B. Feasibility Studies:

C. Project Implementation:

- 57 -

BARBADOS


Energy(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: LPG Extraction Plant

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Natural Gas Corporation



V. LENDING AGENCY: Unknown


a. Description: Construction of an LPG extraction plant to extractpropane, butane and a condensate.

b. Justification: To supply gas of a consistent quality to consumersand to utilize the rich ends from the gas produced.






Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source - 1.1 - - - 1.1 -External Sources - 1.3 - - - 1.3 -

Total - 2.4 - - - 2.4 -

- 58 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Feasibility study has been completed.Execution of the project depends on the availability of gas reserves.


Interest Rate: Not known

Amortization Period: )


Operating and Maintenance Costs: Yes; US$81,000Debt Obligations: US$1.3


A. Project Preparation: None

B. Feasibility Studies: Done


- 59 -

BARBADOS


Energy(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Gas Transmission and Distribution System

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Natural Gas Corporation



V. LENDING AGENCY: Possibly IDB


a. Description: To upgrade and expand the transmission system andtie in the distribution system of natural gas tosupply commercial, industrial and domestic consumers.

b. Justification: To make provision for anticipated increase inproduction and to extend the system to connectadditional consumers.



Local CostsForeign Costs 1.3 1.3 100

Total Costs - Amount 1.3 1.3

- % 100 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - - - - - - -

External Sources 0.32 0.25 0.07 0.324 0.336 1.30 -

Total 0.32 0.25 0.07 0.324 0.336 1.30 -

- 60 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Feasibility study is still in progress.Execution of this project depends on the availability of gas reserves.




Operating and Maintenance Costs: YesDebt Obligations:


A. Project Preparation:


C. Project Implementation:

- 61 -

BARBADOS


Education(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Student Loan Fund II

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education





a. Description: Replenishment of revolving student loan fund. Thefund provides soft loans to students to enable themto continue their studies outside Barbados in priorityfields.

b. Justification: To increase the technical capability of the Barbadianpeople.







Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Source 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 - 0.7 -External Sources 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 - 1.3 -

Total 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 - 2.0

- 62 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Loan request in early 1981. The first studentfund loan serves as a model.


Interest Rate: Not knownAmortization Period: Not known




A. Project Preparation )

B. Feasibility Studies ) None)


- 63 -

BARBADOS


Housing(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Low-cost Housing Program

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands



V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB has been approached.


a. Description: Development of housing program for low-income familiesin both urban and rural areas of Barbados. Projectwould include provision of basic infrastructure tohouses in the areas next to the airport and BridgetownHarbor, contingent to regions earmarked for industrialdevelopment.

b. Justification: To support future industrial and agricultural develop-ment and to improve the living standard of Barbadiancitizens.



Local Costs 2.3 0.1 2.4 40Foreign Costs - 3.6 3.6 60

Total Costs - Amount 2.3 3.7 6.0-% 38 42 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.8 -

External Sources - 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.7

Total - 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.5 4.5

- 64 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study will be undertaken in1981, which should culminate in a project proposal by the end of theyear.







B. Feasibility Studies ) During all stages of project)


- 65 -

BARBADOS


Water Supply and Sewerage(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Bridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme




V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known.


a. Description: Construction of a small-scale pilot project to testvarious methods of land disposal for the effluentfrom the activated sludge treatment plant currentlybeing built. A 200,000 gallon/day test facilitywould consist of five acres of crop irrigation andtwo acres of infiltration basins with appropriatemonitoring and observation wells.

b. Justification: Would provide water for irrigation purposes.



Local Costs 0.4 - 0.4 40Foreign Costs, - 0.6 0.6 60



Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - 0.2 0.2 - - 0.4 -

External Sources _ 0.3 0.3 - - 0.6

Total - 0.5 0.5 1.0

- 66 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project concept identified. A feasibility studyis needed.



XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1984

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 0.1



A. Project Preparation: No


C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified

- 67 -

BARBADOS


Port(US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Container Crane Acquisition

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Barbados Port Authority



V. LENDING AGENCY: Supplier's Credit

VI. DESCRIPTION AND JUSTIFICATION: Acquisition of a mobile crane whichwould help in the development ofBarbados as a major distribution centerfor the surrounding islands.



Local CostsForeign Costs - 2.0 2.0 100

Total Costs - Amount - 2.0 2.0

- % - 100 100


Post1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total 1985/86

Local Sources - - - - - -

External Sources 2.0 - - - - 2.0

Total 2.0 - - - - 2.0

- 68 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Updated costing has been done by consultants.



XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 53.5 56 58 59


XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None

- 69 -

BARBADOS: Technical Assistance Requirements

The following projects require technical assistance for preparationof project documentation and/or feasibility studies:

Sugar Rehabilitation and MechanizationDevelopment of FisheriesFish Terminal - SpeightstownFishing Harbor at BridgetownFood ProcessingCoastal ConservationAccess Road IILow-cost Housing ProgramBridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme

The following nonproject-specific technical assistance schemes arealso required:

Sweet Potato and Cassava Research and DevelopmentFruit Orchard ManagementIrrigation DevelopmentDairy Operations ImprovementHatching EggsPig Breeding UnitAnimal Feed StudiesEstablishment of National ParksRe-equipment of School Meals ProgramNational Health and Drug ServicesLand RegistryCentral Bank - Systems AnalystTax AdministrationIndustrial Planning and ImplementationConsumer Policy FormationHydrographic SurveyNational Housing Corporation ManagementWave Power StudyWind PowerInstitutional Strengthening of the Ministry of Communicationsand Works

- 70 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Sweet Potato and Cassava Research and Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture


1. Selection and growing of sweet potato and cassava culture on which atertiary processing industy can be based.

2. Establish techniques for processing selected culture of sweet potatoand cassava.


Export Services: Rootcrop agronomistFood technologist

Equipment: 1 seven stage extender1 dehydrated flaking processDeep fat frying equipment


- 71 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Fruit Orchard Management

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC



To increase fruit tree yields and improve consistency of fruitquality through introduction of improved agronomic techniques.


Export Services: HorticulturistPomologist


VIII. STATUS: Approved; waiting for funds.

- 72 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Irrigation Development


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture/Ministry ofCommunications and Works


Investigation of soil-water-plant and climate relationships, par-ticularly those most relevant under Barbados conditions which affectchoice, design and operation of irrigation systems, with specialemphasis on small scale family owned operations and establishment ofthe economic viability of new irrigation technique. A component forthe provision of various levels of training to provide skilled manpowerto effect an expansion of irrigation over the next 20 years is included.


Export Services: Irrigation Engineer

Equipment


VIII. STATUS: Still in the profile stage.

- 73 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Dairy Operations Improvement

III. LENDING AGENCY: Denmark has been approached



Improvement in the present system of milk production and collection,with particular attention to small farmers, establishment of a system ofregistration of dairy animals and institution of a system of milk testingand recording.


Milking machines

Lab-quality control technician


VIII. STATUS: No positive response has been obtained yet.

- 74 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Hatching Eggs

III. LENDING AGENCY: Government of Denmark has been approached.



Increase in production of eggs for hatching purposes in order toreduce the need for import.


Poultry breeding expert

Equipment for poultry breeding



- 75 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Pig Breeding Unit

III. LENDING AGENCY: Government of Denmark has been approached.



To improve and upgrade selection of appropriate breeds of pigs forthe production of ham and bacon.


Expert services: animal husbandry specialist



- 76 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Animal Feed Studies

III. LENDING AGENCY: Unkown

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture andConsumer Affairs


To advise the Government with respect to new grasses for pasturegraze, sugar cane by-products, and rum refinery products. To providefeasibility and to design incentives for private investment in follow-ing processing plants; feather, poultry offal, poultry manure, torulayeast, and soybean meal.


Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 1,250

- 77 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Tourist

II. PROJECT TITLE: Establishment of National Parks

III. LENDING AGENCY: France has agreed to fund.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works.


To conduct a feasibility study on the development of certain identi-fied areas for the establishment of national parks on the North Easterncoast of the islands, with a view to ensuring that environmental qualityof the area in light of increasing pressures for various forms of inap-propriate development is retained. The development of a park would alsoprovide a point of interest for tourists.


Expert services: EngineerPark and Resource Planning SpecialistBeach and Coastal Conservation ExportResource Geographer


VIII. STATUS: In the discussion stage.

- 78 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Education

II. PROJECT TITLE: Re-equipment of School Meals Program

III. LENDING AGENCY: The World Food Program has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education


Provision of equipment for school meals program, which raises healthstands of children and enables them to maximize their educational oppor-tunities.


Equipment, vehicles

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 1,425

VIII. STATUS: No response has been obtained yet.

- 79 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Health

II. PROJECT TITLE: National Health and Drug Services

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC

VI. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Health

IV. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Formulation of national health services and provision for bulkimportation of drugs.

V. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services, including Financial Analyst


- 80 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Land Registry

III. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA has agreed to fund

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Not known


Preparation of large-scale topomaps at suitable scales for theentire island.


Expert services in aerial photography and mapping


VIII. STATUS: The project is scheduled to start in mid-1981.

- 81 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Tax Administration

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC has agreed to fund

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Finance


To have tax regime organized to guarantee the Government maximumrevenue.


Tax collection expert


VIII. STATUS: Not implemented yet due to shortages in funds on the partof CFTC.

- 82 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Industrial Planning and Implementation

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC has agreed to fund

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry Development Corporation


To improve industrial planning, assist in introducing new productlines, assist in development of new small-scale industries.


Industrial Engineer

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'QOO): 54

VIII. STATUS: Not implemented yet due to shortages in funds on the partof CFTC.

- 83 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Consumer Policy Formation

III. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA has agreed to provide services.



To provide a modern and comprehensive body of consumer policies,thereby providing maximum consumer protection.


Expert services


VIII. STATUS: The expert was expected in early 1981.

- 84 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Hydrographic Survey

III. LENDING AGENCY: United Kingdom

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands


To establish boundaries of 200 mile economic zone. Project includeson-the-job training to establish local capability.


Scholarship for local surveyor to study in BritainExpert servicesEquipment


VIII. STATUS: Phase I has been completed by UK. The equipment has not yetbeen received.

- 85 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: National Housing Corporation Management


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: National Housing Corporation


To improve of the National Housing Corporation and to supervisethe corporation's housing estates.


Expert services: Chief Estate OfficerNational Housing Advisor


VIII. STATUS: Phase 1 (reorganization of NHC) has been completed.

- 86 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Tax Administration

III. LENDING AGENCY: Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Finance and Planning


To have tax regime organized to guarantee the governmentmaximum revenue.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: Tax expert


- 87 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Building Materials Research and Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: United Nations Development Programme is assistingwith project formulation and will be approached for funding.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing, Lands and theEnvironment


Testing of indigeneous building materials and development of ahousing code.


Two experts: (1) on building codes and regulations(1) on building materials research


- 88 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Hotel Reclassification

III. LENDING AGENCY: Overseas Development Administration (Britain)

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade, Tourism and Industry


To undertake a complete reclassification of all hotels inBarbados.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: One hotel consultant


- 89 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Establishment of Securities Exchange

III. LENDING AGENCY: Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Central Bank of Barbados


To obtain management specialists to assist in the establishmentand operation of Barbados Securities Exchange Company Limited whichhas recently been set up.


Two experts to function as Manager and Consultant respectively.


- 90 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Technology and Methods of Fighting Sugarcane Fires

III. LENDING AGENCY: Australian Government has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of the Attorney General/Fire Service Department


To investigate possible use of chemicals for the control ofsugarcane fires.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: One Consultant


- 91 -

BARBADOS



II. PROJECT TITLE: Institutional Strengthening of the Ministry ofCommunications and Works

III. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works


The project consists of an examination of the current organiza-tional, institutional and financial characteristics of the Ministryand the preparation of an organizational plan to improve the manage-ment and supervision at several levels, as well as a review andupdating of the Ministry's current procedures and operation in thefield. This project aims at providing a greater degree of efficiencyand higher level of productivity within the Ministry.


Expert Services: Organization and management expert, traffic engineer,civil engineer (systems), civil engineer (mechanicaland application), financial/accounting expert,personnel/training specialist and equipment mainte-nance specialist.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'OOO): 307.5

- 92 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Energy

II. PROJECT TITLE: Wave Power Study - Pre-feasibility


IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism


a. Description:

(i) Instrumental wave data collection and analysis;

(ii) Computation of temporal variations in wave power;

(iii) Geological, bathymetric and topographical surveys ofcoral reef formations;

(iv) Analysis of the ecological and environmental impact ofa wave energy generation system; and

(v) Initial designs of optimal wave wall, general electrialsystems.

b. Objectives:

(i) To determine whether an economic wave energy levelexists off the east coast of Barbados;

(ii) To determine a suitable generation system, and itsoptimum location.


(i) Equipment - Rotary coring rig and recording equipment

(ii) Experts - Coastal engineer


- 93 -

BARBADOS


I. SECTOR: Energy

II. PROJECT TITLE: Wind Power

III. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism


a. Description: The project consists of developing information andexperience in the operation of wind turbines forthe generation of electricity, under the conditionsprevailing in Barbados, in order to be prepared forthe installation of full scale (1 to 20 MW) windgenerating plants during the period 1985-1990.

b. Objective: To provide an alternative source of energy thatwill reduce dependence on imported oil.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS: One consultant


VIII. STATUS: A request has been made to IDA for non-reimbursabletechnical assistance.

- 94 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table

I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

1.1 Population Trends, 1970-791.2 Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment, 1976-80

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin, 1975-802.2 Growth Rates of Real GDP, 1975-802.3 Uses of Resources, 1975-802.4 Projected Uses of Resources, 1981-85

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1975-803.2 Merchandise Exports (f.o.b.) by Major Commodities, 1971-803.3 Merchandise Imports (c.i.f.) by End Use Category, 1970-803.4 Direction of Trade, 1971-803.5 Merchandise Exports (f.o.b.) to CARICOM and Other Commonwealth

Caribbean Countries, 1971-803.6 Merchandise Imports (c.i.f.) from CARICOM and Other Commonwealth

Caribbean Countries, 1971-803.7 Projected Balance of Payments, 1981-853.8 Projections of Domestic Exports, 1981-853.9 Projections of Retained Imports, 1981-85

IV. EXTERNAL DEBT

4.1 Outstanding Amounts of External Debt, and Projections of ServicePayments, Commitments and Disbursements on Outstanding Amounts

V. PUBLIC FINANCES

5.1 Central Government Revenues, 1975/76-1981/825.2 Central Government Current Expenditures by Economic Classifications,

1975/76-1981/825.3 Central Government Capital Expenditures by Economic Classifications,

1975/76-1981/82

- 95 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

Table

V. PUBLIC FINANCES (Continued)

5.4 Central Government Finances, 1975/76-1981/825.5 Central Government Transfers, 1975/76-1981/825.6 Consolidated Public Sector Finances, 1975/76-1981/825.7 Public Sector Investment Program, Externally Financed

Projects, 1981/82-1985/865.8 Public Sector Investment and Financing, 1981/82-1985/86

VI. BANKING SYSTEM

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1975-806.2 Summary Accounts of the Monetary Authorities, 1975-806.3 Summary Accounts of the Commercial Banks, 1975-806.4 Detailed Accounts of the Trust Companies, 1975-806.5 Distribution of Commercial Bank Lending to Private Sector,

1970-806.6 Commercial Banks Selected Interest Rates, 1968-Jan. 19816.7 Projected Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1981-85

VII. PRICES AND WAGES

7.1 Retail Price Index, 1968-79, and Jan.-May, 19807.1.1 Retail Price Index, January 1979 to December 19807.2 Percentage Wage Increases, 1976-80

VIII. SELECTED SECTORAL STATISTICS

8.1 Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities, 1971-808.2 Sugar Statistics, 1971-808.3 Production of Selected Manufactured Goods, 1974-808.4 Telephone Services, 1971-808.5 Water Services, 1971-808.6 Construction Data, 1971-798.7 Tourist Arrivals, 1970-80

- 96 -

Table 1.1: BARBADOS-POPULATION TRENDS, 1970-79

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

(In thousands)

Population (beginning of period) 240.1 240.6 242.0 243.9 245.1 246.3 248.8 251.1 253.3 253.1Natural Increase 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1Births (4.9) (5.2 (5.3) (5.1) 4.8) (4.7) (4.6) (4.3) (4.3) (4.3)Deaths (-2.1) (-2.1) (-2.0) (-2.3) (-2.1) (-2.1) (-2.3) (-2.2) (-2.3) (-2.2)

Net migration -2.3 -1.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -0.1 - -0.1 -2.2 -0.9

Population (end of period) 240.6 242.0 243.9 245.1 246.3 248.8 251.1 253.3 253.1 254.3

(As per cent of population at the beginning of the year)

Rate of natural increase 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8Birth rate (2.1) (2.2) (2.2) (2.1) (2.0) (1.9) (1.8) (1.7) (1.7) (1.7)Death rate (-0.9) (-0.9) (-0.8) (-0.9) (-0.9) (-0.8) (-0.9) (-0.8) (-0.9) (-0.9)

Rate of net migration -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 - - -0.9 -0.3

Rate of population increase(end of year) 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1 0.5

Source: Barbados Statistical Service

- 97 -

Table 1.2: BARBADOS - LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT, 1976-80 a!

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

('000 Persons)

Adult Population 166.8 167.7 168.3 171.0 174.2Male (77.1) (77.3) (75.5) (77.4) (80.0)Female (89.7) (90.4) (92.8) (93.6) (94.1)

Labor force 104.1 104.6 102.6 109.0 114.8Male (58.1) (58.6) (56.1) (58.5) (62.1)Female (46.0) (46.0) (46.5) (50.5) (52.7)

Total employed 87.9 88.2 88.8 95.0 100.3Male (51.2) (52.4) (50.3) (53.4) (56.4)Female (36.7) (35.8) (38.5) (41.6) (43.9)

Total unemployed 16.2 16.4 13.8 14.0 14.5Male (6.9) (6.2) (5.8) (5.1) (5.7)Female (9.3) (10.2) (8.0) (8.9) (8.8)

(As % of Adult Population)

Labor Force 62.4 62.4 60.9 63.7 65.9Male (34.8) (35.0) (33.3) (34.2) (35.6)Female (27.6) (27.4) (27.6) (29.5) (30.3)

(As % of Labor Force)

Unemployed 15.5 15.7 13.5 12.8 12.6Male (6.6) (5.9) (5.7) (4.7) (5.0)Female (8.9) (9.8) (7.8) (8.1) (7.6)

a/ Estimates based on the preliminary results of the 1980 Population Census.

Source: Barbados Statistical Service

- 98 -

Table 2.1: BARBADOS - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1975-80

(million of BDS$ of 1976)

Estimated1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Sugar Agriculture 45.7 48.1 56.1 47.2 53.2 63.2

Other Agriculture 25.9 28.7 22.5 31.0 31.5 26.4

Mining & Quarrying 1.5 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.5

Manufacturing 72.5 84.5 87.5 95.5 97.2 103.1

Electricity, Gas &'Water 10.5 11.2 12.8 14.8 16.4 17.5

Construction 49.1 55.6 48.0 51.5 58.7 62.8

Wholesale & Retail Trade 161.7 165.2 168.4 175.0 192.8 211.7

Tourism 83.3 85.6 102.3 119.0 138.6 140.0

Transportation, Storage 54.6 55.9 57.3 58.7 60.8 62.6& Communications

Business and General Services 133.3 142.9 146.4 148.5 152.2 154.6

Government Services 80.4 85.2 91.6 89.9 96.8 99.6

GDP (factor cost) 718.5 765.5 794.9 833.9 901.1 945.0

Source: Barbados Statistical Services, Central Bank, Mission estimates

- 99 -

Table 2.2: BARBADOS - GROWTH RATES OF REAL GDP, 1975-80

(Percent)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Sugar Agriculture -11.1 5.3 16.6 -15.9 12.7 18.8

Other Agriculture 13.1 10.8 -21.6 37.8 1.6 -16.2

Mining & Quarrying 7.1 53.3 -13.0 40.0 3.6 20.7

Manufacturing 10.5 16.6 3.6 9.1 1.8 6.1

Electricity, Gas & Water 5.0 6.7 14.3 15.6 10.8 6.7

Construction -16.4 13.2 -13.7 7.3 14.0 7.0

Wholesale & Retail Trade 1.1 2.2 1.9 3.9 10.2 9.8

Tourism -3.8 2.8 19.5 16.3 16.5 1.0

Transportation, Storageand Communications -0.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 3.6 3.0

Business & General Services 0.6 7.2 2.4 1.4 2.5 1.6

Government Services 14.5 6.0 7.5 -1.9 7.7 2.9

GDP at factor cost 0.6 6.5 3.8 4.9 8.1 4.9

Source: Table 2.1

- 100 -

Table 2.3: BARBADOS - USES OF RESOURCES, 1975-80(in millions of 1976 BD$)

Estimated1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

GDP at Factor Cost 718.5 765.5 794.9 833.9 901.1 945.0

Net Indirect Taxes 109.3 80.0 88.7 96.4 110.1 115.4

GDP at Market Prices 827.8 845.5 883.6 930.3 1011.2 1060.4

Imports of Goods & Non-Factor Services 546.2 564.4 592.8 630.6 687.6 728.4

Exports of Goods & Non-Factor Services 425.2 447.4 520.8 604.0 686.0 734.8

Resource Gap 121.0 117.0 72.0 26.6 1.6 -6.4

Total Resources 948.8 962.5 955.6 956.9 1012.8 1054.0

Fixed Investment 165.0 167.0 164.0 187.5 206.3 231.4

Public 40.7 49.2 57.6 50.8 58.1 79.5

Private a/ 124.3 117.8 106.4 136.7 148.2 151.9

Consumption 783.8 795.5 791.6 769.4 806.5 822.6

Public 100.7 113.7 122.9 120.8 128.5 133.5

Private b/ 683.1 681.8 668.7 648.6 678.0 689.1

a/ Includes changes in stocks

b/ Estimated as a residual

Source: Barbados statitical office, Mission estimates.

- 101 -

Table 2.4: BARBADOS - PROJECTED USES OF RESOURCES, 1981-85(in millions of 1976 BD$)

Estimated1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

GDP at Factor Cost 945.0 954.7 991.9 1029.4 1068.1 1109.3

Net Indirect Taxes 115.4 121.2 126.8 134.1 142.0 148.3

GDP at Market Prices 1060.4 1075.9 1118.7 1163.5 1210.1 1257.6

Imports of Goods andNon Factor services 728.4 798.0 836.2 866.6 884.4 938.0

Exports of Goods andNon Factor services 734.8 744.8 787.6 827.2 872.4 921.4

Resource Gap -6.4 53.2 48.6 39.4 12.0 16.6

Total Resources 1054.0 1129.1 1167.3 1202.9 1222.1 1274.2

Fixed Investment 231.4 257.8 275.2 276.2 268.3 276.3

Public 79.5 77.8 75.2 79.2 83.3 91.3

Private 151.9 180.0 200.0 197.0 185.0 185.0

Consumption 822.6 871.3 892.1 926.7 953.8 997.9

Public 133.5 135.6 139.4 145.1 151.0 157.2

Private 1/ 689.1 735.7 752.7 781.6 802.8 840.7

1/ Estimated as a residual

Source: Mission estimates.

- 102 -

Table 3.1: BARBADOS - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1975-80

(US$ million)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980E_

Exports of Goods and N.F.S. 223.4 223.7 277.2 346.3 434.2 561.7

Goods 109.9 91.7 109.0 131.5 155.9 227.7

Sugar and Molasses (53.4) (28.1) (28.2) (26.9) (32.5) (60.6)Other Domestic a/ (35.7) (40.7) (47.3) (66.3) (83.8) (108.0)Balance of Payments Adjustment- (0.9) (2.9) (7.0) (6.6) (4.0) -Re-exports (19.9) (20.0) (26.5) (31.2) (35.6) (59.1)

Non-Factor Services 113.5 132.0 168.2 214.8 278.3 334.0

Travel (gross) (88.8) (101.3) (130.5) (162.2) (208.0) (251.0)Other (24.7) (30.7) (37.7) (52.6) (70.3) (83.0)

Imports of Goods and N.F.S. 260.2 282.2 319.0 372.0 480.0 598.3

Goods 218.7 239.6 272.5 314.2 407.0 508.3

Retained (198.8) (219.6) (246.0) (282.5) (371.4) A 449.2)I!For Re-export (19.9) (20.0) (26.5) (31.7) (35.6) (59.1)

Non-Factor Services 41.5 42.6 46.5 57.8 73.0 90.0

Resources Balance -36.8 -58.5 -41.8 -25.7 -45.8 -36.6

Net Factor Services -1.3 2.5 -1.6 1.6 -1.4 -3.5

Interest on M.L.T. Public Debt (-2.4) (-2.0) (-2.0) (-3.2) (-5.0) (-5.9)Other Factor Services (net) (1.1) (4.5) (0.4) (4.8) (3.6) (2.4)

Current Transfers 7.2 12.8 16.1 16.6 22.0 22.0

Current Account Balance -30.9 -43.2 -27.3 -7.5 -25.2 -18.1

Net Public Disbursements-/ -0.1 6.0 9.8 16.6 7.6 29.3

Central Government -0.1 4.2 9.3 15.0 5.4 26.6

Gross Disbursements 1.6 6.0 15.9 18.6 9.6 31.9Project-related (1.6) (6.0) (15.9) (8.4) (8.8) (6.9)CDF-typq (-) (-) (-) (0.2) (0.8) (5.0)Other c/ (-) (-) (-) (10.0) (-) (20.0)Grants (-) (-) (0.3) (017) (0.5) (0.7)Amortization -1.7 -1.8 -6.9 -4.3 -4.7 -6.0

Government Guaranteed (net) - 1.8 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.7

Private Capital (net)d/ 46.6 18.9 12.0 15.6 25.2 4.8

Banking System -0.1 1.0 11.9 5.1 1.6 6.0

Net International Reserves -15.5 17.3 -6.4 -29.8 -9.2 -22.0

Memoranda Items

Net International Reserves-e 35.5 18.2 24.6 54.4 63.6 85.6(in months) f/

Gross Official Reserves 2.4 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.2

a/ Sugar Valuation Adjustment and other Balance of Payments Adjustments.

b/ Excludes Central Bank.

c/ Represents balance of payments support loans obtained from private financial institutions.

d/ Includes errors and omissions.

!/ Banking System (December)

f/ Number of months of retained merchandise imports (at rate recorded during the preceding 12 months)represented by the level of gross official reserves.

.&/ Differs from custom figures because of adjustment made to retained fuels imports.

Source: Barbados Statistical Office, Central Bank, Ministry of Finance, and Mission Estimate.

- 103 -

Table 3.2: BARBADOS - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FOB) BY MAJOR COMMODITIES, 1971-80

(BDS$ million)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979P 1980P

A. Total Domestic Exports 53.2 63.1 83.7 122.9 176.8 133.4 151.1 186.4 232.7 337.3

Primary Products 33.3 34.0 40.9 71.4 115.4 63.4 67.4 66.4 78.1 139.3Sugar 26.4 27.1 30.1 52.2 95.1 46.9 50.6 47.0 58.0 105.1Molasses 3.6 3.3 4.1 10.5 11.8 9.3 5.8 6.7 6.9 11.9Other 3.3 3.6 6.7 8.7 8.5 7.2 11.0 12.7 13.2 22.3

Manufactured Products 19.9 29.1 42.8 51.5 61.4 70.0 83.7 120.0 154.6 198.0Rum 4.1 4.6 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.4 5.7 6.0 2.6 3.5Clothing 4.2 5.4 10.3 18.5 26.8 30.5 37.2 40.6 45.9 49.3Chemicals 2.5 3.3 4.3 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 9.3 15.2 21.7ElectricAl Components 3.8 4.2 6.4 8.8 9.5 13.8 18.3 37.9 45.1 61.1Others 5.3 11.6 17.1 14.3 15.3 15.4 16.9 26.2 45.8 62.4

B. Re-exports 27.2 21.4 20.0 49.4 39.7 40.1 53.0 63.7 71.2 118.1

Petroleum and aaPetroleum Products 14.4 11.0 9.0 34.6 27.1 21.5 35.9a/ 38.7a/ 2 6 . 7 t' 54.7

Other 12.8 10.4 11.0 14.8 12.6 18.6 17.1 25.0 44.5 63.4

C. Total Adjusted Exports 80.4 84.5 103.7 172.3 216.5 173.6 204.1 250.1 303.9 455.4

a/ Differ from official figures because of a timing adjustment of Bds$11.l million of stores and

bunkers re-exported in 1977, but reported in 1978.b/ Estimated.p = provisional

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Reports; Statistical Service.

- 104 -

Table 3.3: BARBADOS - MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) BY END USE CATEGORY, 1970-80

(in millions of B$)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 :979 19804'

Consumer Goods 102.4 106.3 124.9 139.9 162.1 166.2 189.5 212.3 243.3 299.9 365.7Non-Durables 67.4 72.2 87.2 102.3 127.2 132.4 144.3 161.1 188.3 223.3 261.2Food and beverage (49.0) (52.5) (62.4) (76.2) (94.1) (94.1) (99.2) (104.8) (124.9) (140.3) (168.2)Others (18.4) (19.7) (24.8) (26.1) (33.1) (38.3) (45.1) (56.3) (63.4) (83.0) (93.0Durables 21.6 20.2 22.0 20.0 14.3 14.8 23.4 25.5 24.7 36.7 46.8Motor cars (9.8) (9.6) (11.1) (8.7) (4.2) (4.8) (10.9) (10.9) (8.6) (14.2) (20.1Others (11.8) (10.6) (10.9) (11.3) (10.1) (10.0) (12.5) (14.6) (16.1) (22.5) (26.3)Other Manufacturedconsumer goods 13.4 13.9 15.7 17.6 20.6 19.0 21.8 25.7 30.3 39.9 57.7

Intermediate Goods 65.5 70.6 78.2 100.1 158.7 163.2 171.3 197.8 216.6 310.2 383.2Fuels 13.0 15.9 15.8 21.8 66.4 73.5 61.7 72 .3 72.9 119.0 162.1Chemicals 8.2 8.6 10.9 14.3 19.0 18.0 22.1 24.5 29.8 41.6 52.5Textiles 13.4 12.8 15.1 20.2 19.2 19.8 25.2 26.2 27.3 38.1 40.0Feeds, fats and crudematerials 9.5 10.7 11.6 15.7 18.1 18.3 19.3 22.4 22.4 27.4 27.1Other manufactured inter-mediate goods 21.2 22.6 24.8 28.1 36.0 33.3 43.0 52.4 64.2 84.1 101.5

Capital Goods 59.9 60.0 59.4 78.6 83.9 92.8 96.8 116.8 148.5 223.8 283.4Machinery 39.2 40.2 37.3 50.9 50.1 69.3 63.0 80.6 106.9 167.2 200.7Construction materials 20.7 19.8 22.1 27.7 33.8 23.5 33.8 36.2 41.6 56_6 82.7

Unclassified Goods 7.2 6.8 7.9 10.0 13.6 15.0 16.5 18.2 19.8 14.5 15.9

To_ , Merchandise Imports(CIE) 235.0 243.7 270.4 328.6 418.3 437.2 474.1 545.1 628.2 84B.4 1048.2

Memorandum Item:

Consumer Goods: Food - SITC 0, 1 (excluding 08)Other Non-durables = 511C 54, 55, 83, 84 and 85Durables = SITC 732.1, 629.11, 629.13, 629.145, 629.15,

719.120, 719.121, 719.122, 719.123, 724.1,724.2, 725, 732.9, 733, 821, 891, and 8(residuals)

Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods:Fuels and Lubricants - SITC 3Chemicals SITC 5 (residual)Textiles = SITC 65Fats and Crude materials = SITC 08, 2(residual) and 4Others = SITC 6 (residual)

Capital Goods: Building Materials - SITC 24, 631, 632, 641.6, 661-2, 67,691, 812.1, 812.2, 812.3

Machinery and Transport Equipment = SITC 7 (residual)

Others: SITC 9

a/ Provisional

Source: Central Bank, Barbados Statistical Service and Barbados Overseas TradeAnnuals

- 105 -

Table 3.4: BARBADOS - DIRECTION OF TRADE, 1971-80

(BDS$ million)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 cl

Imports (c.i.f.) 243.7 270.4 328.6 418.3 437.2 474.1 545.1 632.7 850.7 1049.1

EEC a/ 97.7 102.4 113.2 124.1 128.8 123.8 141.8 167.8 203.5 213.2

(United Kingdom) ( 73.2) ( 72.6) ( 80.8) ( 85.7) ( 94.9) ( 88.5) (103.0) (115.6) (138.3) (157.3)

US 44.4 51.9 69.6 81.1 83.2 108.9 133.2 175.4 268.8 356.8

CARICOM 30.1 36.7 43.0 73.0 71.9 82.2 88.7 92.0 136.8 189.5

Canada 25.0 27.1 37.3 38.0 38.1 40.7 38.9 46.2 64.3 76.8

Other 46.6 52.3 65.5 102.1 115.3 118.5 142.5 151.3 177.3 212.8

Exports (f.o.b.) a/ 80.3 84.5 103.7 175.0 217.9 172.5 193.0 261.1 303.8 455.4

EEC b/ 28.4 29.6 35.9 28.8 64.1 31.8 39.0 37.2 60.9 64.0

(United Kingdom) ( 28.0) ( 29.0) ( 34.5) ( 27.2) ( 58.7) ( 15.6) ( 15.7) (32.4) ( 38.6) ( 29.9)

US 8.6 10.6 17.2 47.3 65.7 52.8 61.6 65.6 110.9 165.1

CARICOM 19.5 23.9 29.0 38.8 40.4 45.8 46.7 64.2 76.2 126.7

Canada 4.0 4.9 5.8 9.8 12.8 12.2 10.7 12.1 16.0 18.3

Other 19.8 15.5 15.8 50.3 34.9 29.9 35.0 82.0 39.9 81.3

a/ Includes re-exports.

b/ Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, France, Germany FR, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and UK.

c/ Provisional

Sources: Overseas Trade Reports; Barbados Statistical-Service.

- 106 -

Table 3.5: BARBADOS-MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FOB) TO CARICOM AND OTHER CONMONWEALTH

CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1971-80

(BDS$ '000)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Guyana 1,225 1,732 2,618 3,570 3,432 5,056 3,490 3,082 3,086 2,215

Trinidad and Tobago 4,580 6,590 8,042 10,009 12,206 17,949 21,108 31,276 37,281 52,414

Jamaica 1,064 2,274 4,142 7,094 8,567 7,236 4,694 7,540 5,245 13,644

Dominica 1,424 1,373 1,413 1,552 1,683 1,606 1,821 2,893 4,657 6,273

Grenada 1,770 1,935 1,920 2,186 2,310 2,318 3,039 3,992 4,861 5,452

St. Vincent (includingGrenadines) 2,000 2,008 2,279 4,307 3,112 2,903 3,052 3,817 6,494 9,501

St. Lucia 3,263 3,340 3,920 4,592 3,927 4,593 5,191 5,929 8,223 12,313

Montserrat 444 418 440 616 555 646 478 710 738 1,064

Antigua 1,909 2,086 2,035 2,404 2,221 1,801 2,228 2,772 3,703 20,607

St. Kitts-Nevis,Anguilla 1,099 1,432 1,414 1,448 1,629 1,679 1,551 2,173 2,293 3,189

Belize 1 3 10 22 4 8 42 38 114 70

Other a/ 693 730 777 971 804 760 752 1,696 1,829 1,955

TOTAL CARICOM 19,472 23,921 29,011 38,771 40,448 46,555 47,446 65,918 7669 126,742

a/ Bahamas, Bermuda and British Virgin Islands.

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados Statistical Service.

- 107 -

Table 3.6: BARBADOS-MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) FROM CARICOM AND OTHER COMMONWEALTH

CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1971-80

tBDSS '000)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Guyana 4,963 5,893 5,702 8,110 10,115 9,709 10,430 9,255 8,602 8,846

Trinidad and Tobago 18,418 22,515 26,179 49,549 44,537 53,065 54,379 56,633 89,845 146,516

Jamaica 4,153 5,704 7,335 10,490 11,514 13,771 15,890 14,994 25,415 21,185

Dominica 499 493 366 416 912 1,062 1,319 1,714 969 1,443

Grenada 25 51 218 87 123 66 66 288 591 627

St. Vincent (includingGrenadines) 1,089 938 1,144 1,011 1,036 748 937 2,362 3,216 2,61n

St. Lucia 195 523 1,021 1,820 2,345 2,880 4,456 4,947 3,656 3,898

Montserrat 9 14 40 34 18 12 14 29 20 59

Ancigua 103 172 184 209 224 515 517 1,199 1,641 2,157

St. Kitts-Nevis, Ang'uilla 3 6 25 25 45 220 259 241 679 606

Belize 546 191 649 541 760 106 480 332 2,123 1,594

Other a/ 67 161 106 725 282 48 63 45 34 103

TOTAL CARICOM 30,071 36,661 42,969 73,018 71,909 82,202 88,810 92039 136,757 189,541

a/ Bahamas, Bermuda and British Virgin Islands.

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados Statistical Service.

- 108 -

Table 3.7: BARBADOS - PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1981-85

(IJS$ million)

Actual Estimated Projected1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 434.2 561.7 631.0 718.0 823.0 942.0 1076.0

Goods 155.9 227.7 250.0 275.0 310.0 350.0 397.0

Domestic 120.3 168.6 180.0 205.0 240.0 280.0 327.0

Sugar-Molasses 32.5 60.6 48.0 47.0 52.0 58.0 63.0Other 83.8 108.0 132.0 158.0 188.0 222.0 264.0Balance of Payment Adjustment1L 4.0 - - - - - -

Re-Exports 35.6 59.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0


Travel (gross) 208.0 251.0 285.0 334.0 389.0 452.0 522.0Other 70.3 83.0 96.0 109.0 124.0 140.0 157.0

Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 480.0 598.3 716.2 810.3 904.6 990.7 1124.1

Goods 407.0- 508.3- 611.2 689.3 766.6 832.7 945.1

Retained Imports 371.4- 449.2- 541.2 619.3 696.6 762.7 875.1

Re-Exports 35.6 59.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0


Resource Balance -45.8 -36.6 -85.2 -92.3 -81.6 -48.7 -48.1

Net Factor Services - 1.4 - 3.5 - 5.5 -10.6 -13.0 -15.2 -15.9

Current Transfers 22.0 22.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 26.0 28.0

Current Account Deficit -25.2 -18.1 -68.7 -78.9 -68.6 -37.9 -36.0

Net Public Disbursements 7. 6 29.3 46.3 66.6 49.9 28.9 32.1


Gross Disbursements 9.6 31.9 41.9 50.3 37.9 31.6 41.5

Project-related - 6.9 17.4 31.3 28.9 30.1 L1.5

CDF-type 0.8 5.0 19.5 19.0 9.0 1.5 _Oil facilities - - 8.5 8.0 2.5 - _Othe 1 , 0.8 0.8 11.0 11.0 6.5 1.5 -

Other -} - 20.0 5.0 - - - -

Grants 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1O0 1.0 1.0

Amortization - 4.7 - 6.0 - 6.1 - 5.3 - 7.7 - 8.2 - 9.0

Government Guaranteed (Net) 2.2 2.7 9.5 20.6 18.7 4.5 - 1.4

of which: Power Expansion - 3.3 8.0 6.2 - - 1.6Cement Plant - - 3.0 11.0 10.5 2.5 - 1.8

Private Capital 25.2 4.8 27.2 36.0 30.8 25.5 16.7

Power Expansion - - 15.2 10.0 - .7 8.0 3.4Cement Plant - - 7.0 16.0 16.5 2.5 - 1.7Other 25.2 4.8 5.0 10.0 15.0 15.0 15.0

Commercial Bank (Medium & Long Term) 1.4 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Central Bank (Medium & Long Term) 0.2 0.2 - 0.8 - 3.0 - - -

Net International Reserves - 9.2 -22.0 8.0 -24.7 -16.1 -20.5 -16.8

4 Sugar Valuation Adjustment

2/ Loans from financial institutions and Suppliers Credits

3/ Differs from custum figures because of adjustment made to retained fuels imports.

Source: Central *ank, Barbeabs Statistical Office, Misaion Estimates (1981-1985)

- 109 -

Table 3.8: BARBADOS - PROJECTION OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS, 1981-85

(US$ million)

Estimated Projected1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Current

Sugar and Molasses 34.7-/ 60.6 48.0 47.0 52.0 58.0 63.0

Other Domestic Exports 85.6 108.0 132.0 158.0 188.0 222.0 264.0

Total Merchandise 120.3 168.6 180.0 205.0 240.0 280.0 327.0

Tourism 208.0 251.0 285.0 334.0 389.0 452.0 522.0

Other Non-Factor Services 70.3 83.0 96.0 109.0 124.0 140.0 157.0

Total Non-Factor Services 278.3 334.0 381.0 443.0 513.0 592.0 679.0

Total 398.6 502.6 561.0 648.0 753.0 872.0 1006.0

Price Indices (1976 = 100)

Sugar and Molasses 106.3 153.4 153.4 135.9 151.0 166.1 182.7



Tourism 126.8 148.8 171.1 189.1 208.0 227.7 248.3



Total 125.8 150.0 166.5 179.3 196.2 213.3 231.2

Constant (1976 Prices)

Sugar and Molasses 32.6 39.5 31.3 34.6 34.4 34.9 34.5



Tourism 164.0 168.7 166.6 176.6 187.0 198.5 210.2



Total 316.8 335.1 336.9 361.3 383.7 408.7 435.1

a/ Includes sugar valuation adjustment.

Source: Mission Estimates.

- 110 -

Table 3.9: BARBADOS - PROJECTIONS OF RETAINED IMPORTS, 1981-85(US$ Million)

Estimated Projected1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Current Prices

Fuels 27.8 37.7 45.5 51.8 58.6 68.4 79.5Other Retained

Imports 343.6 411.5 495.7 567.5 638.0 694.3 795.6

TotalMerchandise 371.4 449.2 541.2 619.3 696.6 762.7 875.1

Non-FactorServices 73.0 90.0 105.0 121.0 138.0 158.0 179.0

Total Goodsand N.F.S. 444.4 539.2 646.2 740.3 834.6 920.7 1054.1

Price Indices (1976 = 100)

Fuels 182.1 231.4 273.0 305.7 339.2 376.5 417.9Other RetainedImports 139.6 160.9 175.3 190.1 205.5 220.9 236.3


Non-factorServices 129.6 150.5 164.0 177.9 192.2 206.6 221.1


Constant 1976 Prices

Fuels 15.3 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.2 19.1Other RetainedImports 246.1 255.8 282.8 298.5 310.5 314.3 336.7


Non-FactorServices 56.3 59.8 64.0 68.0 71.8 76.7 81.0


Source: Mission Estimates.

- 111 -

Page 1 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND fOUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDrNG INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1980DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TOTAL

YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ------ : LATIONS MENT *: : : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 7,789 12,106 33,303 21,126 3,213 338 3,551 - 961974 25,757 42,292 1,057 2,465 1,215 2,554 3.769 - 1231975 27,037 42,257 15,028 1,562 1,681 2,380 4,061 87 -5801976 26,714 54,937 11.000 7,197 1,831 1,950 3,781 - -6481977 31,822 63,458 28,224 24,795 7,061 1,960 9,021 105 -1,6871978 48,715 82,829 28,939 19,741 4.399 3,161 7,560 659 -6311979, 63,752 106,079 25,255 11.835 6,831 4,994 11,825 76 6471980 69,241 125,074

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 69.241 125,074 38,991 16,001 8,283 5,857 14,140 - 31981 76,958 155,785 - 18,378 9,319 5,916 15,235 - -1982 86.013 146,466 - 17,597 8,920 5,980 14,900 - -11983 94,690 137,545 - 14,743 8,949 5.919 14,868 - 21984 100,489 128,598 - 12,784 9,349 5,744 15,093 - -1985 103,923 119,249 - 8,709 9,011 5,526 14,537 - 11986 103,621 110.239 - 3,822 8,276 5,269 13,545 - 41987 99,171 101,967 - 2,052 8,440 4,882 13,322 - I1988 92,786 93,528 - 743 8,937 4,407 13,344 - 11989 84,592 84,592 - - 8,759 3,878 12.637 - -2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

- 112 -

Page 2 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LDANS

TOTALYEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *

: : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 1,202 4,519 10,558 1,181 - - - - 461974 2,388 15,123 - 2,067 - 64 64 - 711975 4,437 15,194 4,720 591 - 73 73 - -3741976 4,920 19,540 - 3,523 - 131 131 - -3861977 8,398 19,154 tO,000 11,920 167 423 590 - -1,4851978 19,446 27,502 1,632 5,159 207 731 938 11 -1,2481979 23,477 27,668 3,825 3,575 2,202 801 3,003 26 4041980 25,098 29,669

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 25,098 29,669 2.230 2,932 2,442 1,130 3,572 - 21981 25,588 29,459 - 2,447 3,628 1,182 4,810 - -11982 24,405 25,830 - 1,217 4,285 1,136 5,421 - -1983 21,335 21,545 - 191 1.508 946 2.454 - 11984 20,019 20,038 - 19 1,508 864 2,372 - -1985 18,530 18,530 - - 1,508 775 2,283 - -1986 17,022 17,022 - - 1,391 687 2,078 - 11987 15,632 15,632 - - 1,391 605 1,996 - -11988 14,240 14,240 - - 1,391 526 1,917 - -1989 12,849 12,849 - - 1,231 445 1,676 - -

T THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

- 113 -

Page 3 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 3i. 1979

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1. 1900 - DEC. 31, 1980DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANSTOTAL

YEAR OEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGESBEGINNING OF PERIOD

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _--- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---- - - -- --- - --------__ _ _-__ _ __-__ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: ) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 - 1,000 2,800 - - - -1974 - 3,800 - 361 41 41 - _1975 361 3,800 9,750 55 - 89 89 87 -

1976 416 13,463 9,500 2,178 28 160 188 - 111977 2,566 22,946 12,524 6,892 58 341 399 105 3041978 9,770 35,611 17,307 4.377 65 818 883 643 5761979 14,657 52.786 21,430 8,253 58 1,131 1,189 50 2021980 23,048 74,310

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * ^ * *

1980 23,048 74,310 35,217 12,705 244 1,680 1,924 - I1981 35,508 109,284 - 15,317 603 2,430 3.033 - I1982 50,221 108,682 - 15.916 1,504 3,188 4,692 -1983 64.636 107178 - 14,480 4,200 3,784 7,984 - 11984 74.919 102.979 - 12,734 5,210 4.180 9.390 - -11985 82,442 97,768 - 8,709 6,141 4,431 10,572 - 11986 85,010 91.628 - 3,822 6,432 4,398 10,830 - 31987 82,403 85,199 - 2,052 6,596 4,158 10,754 - 21988 77,863 78,605 - 743 7,217 3,821 11,038 - -

1989 71,388 71,388 - - 7,316 3,412 10,728 - -2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONEYEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTSFROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.

- 114 -

Page 4 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMITMEMTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROUECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED dAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1980DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR BONDS


BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADUUST-ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT

: : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 6,587 6,587 - - 3,201 336 3,537 - 991974 3,485 3,485 - - - 228 228 - 381975 3,523 3,523 . - - - 232 232 - 701976 3,593 3,593 - - - 234 234 --

1977 3,593 3,593 - - 2,976 143 3,119 - -6171978 - - _- - -_1979 - - - - - - _ _1980 - -

* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * *


- 115 -

Page 5 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

TOTALYEAR DEBT DUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES

: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS .---------------------- ----------- : LATIONS MENT '

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 - - 19.018 19,018 - - - - -11974 19,017 19,017 - - 1,049 2,102 3,151 -

1975 17,969 17,969 - - 1,464 1,881 3,345 - -

1976 16,505 16,505 1,500 1,000 1,464 1,324 2,788 - -1977 16,041 16,541 5,700 5,983 3,481 1,008 4,489 -1978 18,543 18,760 10,000 10.205 3,723 1,567 5,290 5 -

1979 25.025 25,032 - 7 4,262 3,039 7,301 - -

1980 20.770 20,770

l * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 20,770 20,770 1,544 364 5,339 3,028 8,367 - -1981 15,795 16,975 - 614 5,021 2,300 7,321 - _1982 11,387 11,954 - 464 3,131 1,656 4,787 - -11983 8,719 8,822 - 72 3,241 1,189 4,430 - -

1984 5,551 5,581 - 31 2,631 700 3,331 -1985 2,951 2,951 - - 1,362 320 1,682 - -1986 1,589 1,589 - - 453 184 637 - -1987 1,136 1,136 - - 453 119 572 - -1988 683 683 - - 329 60 389 - 11989 355 355 - - 212 21 233 - -


- 116 -

Page 6 of 6

Table 4.1: BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979


(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS


BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------: LATIONS MENT *

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1973 - - 927 927 12 2 14 - -481974 867 867 1,057 37 166 119 285 - 131975 747 1,771 558 916 217 105 322 - -2761976 1,280 1,836 - 496 339 101 440 - -2731977 1.224 1,224 - - 379 45 424 - 1111978 956 956 - - 404 45 449 - 411979 593 593 - - 309 23 332 - 411980 325 325

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEO * * ' * * *

1980 325 325 - - 258 19 277 --

1981 67 67 - - 67 4 71 - -


- 117 -

Table 5.1: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, 1975/76 - 81/82

(Bd$ million)

Prelimi- Bugt Revisednary Budget Estimate

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

Taxes on Net Income and Profits 82.1 93.2 105.6 132.4 138.4 159.8 183.1 174.1

Companies 30.3 28.0 34.6 44.2 47.4 60.0 69.0 69.0Individuals 44.4 59.1 66.0 82.2 85.6 95.0 107.0 98.0Others 7.4 6.1 5.0 6.0 5.4 4.8 7.1 7.1

Employment Levy - - - 6.1 4.1 4.2 - -

Taxes on Prpperty 8.7 11.3 11.5 13.0 17.8 21.6 19.6 18.0

Land Tax 5.7 7.3 7.2 8.0 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0Estate and Succession Duties 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 -Property Transfer Tax and Others 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.9 4.1 7.3 5.3 6.0

Tax on Domestic Goods and Services 41.1 43.7 54.2 66.6 79.8 108.2 129.4 125.4

Retail Sales Tax 5.7 3.4 - - - - - -Consumption Tax 9.6 12.0 17.2 19.6 23.6 50.0 62.5 58.5Excise Duties 4.1 5.0 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.9Taxes on Motor Spirits and Diesel Oil 10.7 11.2 12.7 15.2 17.8 19.1 20.7 20.7Motor Vehicle Duty 1.1 2.5 2.5 3.4 4.7 0.8 - -Hotel and Restaurant Tax 3.8 4.2 7.2 10.3 13.4 15.0 18.5 18.5Motor Vehicle Licenses 2.1 2.2 2.9 4.2 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.0Business and Professional Licenses 1.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2Hotel Tax 0.6 - - - - - - -Other 2.2 2.4 5.5 6.6 8.9 10.7 14.6 14.6

Taxes on International Trade 45.6 42.7 48.1 54.9 74.4 89.8 96.5 100.0

Import Duties 31.2 42.7 48.1 54.9 74.4 89.8 96.5 100.0Export Levies 14.4 - - - - - - _

Other Taxes (Stamp) 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.0 3.9 5.0 4.7 6.0

Total Tax Revenue 178.4 192.1 221.6 276.0 318.4 388.6 433.3 423.5

Property Income 5.8 3.7 4.5 6.8 9.1 14.0 11.7 16.6

Rents, Royalties, Dividends 1.4 0.7 2.2 3.8 3.8 5.2 3.2 ...Interest 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.5 ...Central Bank and Exchange Profits 3.0 1.6 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.5 5.0 ...

Administrative Fees, Fines and Others 7.4 8.7 11.0 14.3 14.9 25.6 19.8 25.0

Total Non-Tax Revenue 14.1 12.8 16.2 21.1 24.0 39.6 32.1 41.6

Total Current Revenue 191.6 204.5 237.1 297.1 342.4 428.2 464.8 465.1

... not availableSources: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Accountant General and mission estimates.

- 118 -

Table 5.2: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES BYECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1975/76 - 1981/82

(BDS$ million)

Prelimi- Revisednary Budget Estimate

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

Goods and Services 99.4 119.4 135.1 148.1 169.2 222.7 250.5 243.1

Wages and salaries 68.2 30.9 101.1 112.3 126.7 171.2 180.6 180.6Other 31.2 28.5 34.0 35.8 42.5 51.5 69.9 62.5

Interest 13.5 14.2 18.4 22.7 28.4 31.0 39.0 39.0

Domestic 11.4 11.7 15.4 17.2 18.5 21.0 23.8 23.8External 2.1 2.5 3.0 5.6 9.9 10.0 15.2 15.2

Operating Deficit of DepartmentalEnterprise (Printing Department) 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4

Other Domestic Transfers 52.3 68.7 75.7 82.3 102.7 122.5 135.3 142.7

National insurance contributions 1.0 0.9 1.9 3.4 3.3 5.8 4.9 4.9Non-financial public enterprises 5.6 12.3 10.6 11.5 16.2 23.5 24.3 24.3PensionB 8.5 11.2 12.9 14.7 16.7 20.5 16.0 23.4Non-profit institutions 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.6Other transfers to individuals 11.7 14.9 19.1 19.9 24.3 25.1 27.5 27.5Other public institutions 24.9 28.4 30.0 31.5 40.6 45.6 60.0 60.0

Regional and International Organizations 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.9 3.9

TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURES 168.2 205.4 232.3 255.9 304.2 380.6 430.1 430.1

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Planning Accountant General and Mission Estimates.

- 119 -

Table 5.3: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURESBY ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1975/76 - 81/82

(BDS$ million)

Prelim- Revisedinary Budget Estimate

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

Economic Classification

Acquisition of Assets 0.9 1.2 2.8 2.7 - 5.0 3.2 3.2

Capital Formation 19.0 38.0 37.8 27.4 50.7 97.0 137.6 88.3

Transfers 23.2 18.3 29.6 34.7 36.1 33.1 44.7 43.2

Non-financial public enterprises (17.8) (16.7) (26.3) (30.6) (31.8) (28.1) (37.6) (36.1)Public Financial Institutions l .2) (1.4) (2.5) (2.2) (1.6) (1.0) (2.2) (2.2)Abroad ( ( (1.3) (1.2) (1.8) (3.2) (3.2)Other Public Institutions (0.2) (0.2) (0.8) (0.6) (1.5) (2.2) (1.7) (1.7)

Net Lending 2.0 3.3 15.7 7.6 0.4 3.2 15.3 15.3

Equity Contributions (4.3) (2.4) (12.6) (5.2) (0.2) (1.6) (15.3) (15.3)Loans and Advances (Net) (-2.3) (0.9) (3.1) (2.4) (0.2) (1.6) (-) (-)

Total Capital Expenditures andNet Lending 45.1 60.8 85.9 72.4 87.2 138.3 200.8 150.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Accountant General and Mission Estimates.

- 120 -

Table 5.4: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1975/76 - 1981/82

(BDS$ million)

Prelim- Revisedinary Budget Estimate

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

Current Revenues 191.6 204.5 237.3 297.1 342.4 428.2 464.8 465.1

Current Expenditures 168.2 205.4 232.3 255.9 304.2 380.6 430.1 430.1

Current Surplus/Deficit (-) 23.4 -0.9 5.0 41.2 38.2 47.6 34.7 35.0

Capital Expenditures & Net Lending 45.1 60.8 85.9 72.4 87.2 138.3 200.8 150.0

Overall Surplus/Deficit (-) -21.7 -61.7 -80.9 -31,2 -49.0 -90.7 -166.1 -115.0

Financing 21.7 61.7 80.9 31.2 49.0 90.7 166.1 115.0

Gross External Borrowing 3.6 14.0 34.1 36.4 21.1 76.4 89.7Trinidad-Tobago (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (40.0) (-)CIDA (1.1) (6.0) (6.9) (8.4) (2.9) (0.3) (4.0) ( )UK (-H- -- (1.9) (1.9)(-()IBRD ( H (3.6) (20.4)()CDB (- ) (0.8) (2.1) (1.4) (3.6) (7.3) (16.3) ( )IDB (0.4) (4.3) (13.3) (6.6) (11.2) (11.6) (17.6) ( )Commercial Banks (-) (2.0) (12.0) (20.0) (-) (-) (12.3) (.)OPEC (H (H ~ ~ (1-5) (3.0) (1.5)()Other (2.1) (0.9) (-) (-) (-) ( R.7) (17.6) (.,

Less Amortization (-1,7) (-2.1) (-6.9) (-7.9) (-9.0) (-12.2) (-13.7) ( )Grants (-) (-) (0.8) (1.8) (0.8) (1.8) (3.8) (.)

Net External Borrowing 1.9 11.9 28.0 30.3 12.9 66.0 79.8 83.3

Net Banking System 21.1 41.4 28.5 -9.2 35.1 ... ... ...Central Bank (-12.0) (13.6) (7.3) (-14.6) (27.9) (.) ( ) (.)Commercial Banks (33.1) (27.8) (21.2) (5.4) (7.2) (.) (- ) (.)

Other -1.3 8.4 24.4 10.1 1.0 ..Trust Companies (Net) (-0.1) (-) (0.2) (-0.3) (0.2) C.) ( ) (.)Special Funds (0.7) (-1.0) (-0.7) (-0.4) (-0.4) (.) (.) C.)National Insurance Fund (-0.5) (10.9) (9.9) (3.2) (2.3) ( ) ( ) ( )Insurance Companies (-0.3) (-0.2) (3.8) (0.i9) (0.7) (.) ( ) ( )Other (Residual) (-1.1) (-1.3) (11.2) (6.7) (-1.8) (.) ( ) (.)

Net Domestic Financing 19.8 49.8 52.9 (-) 36.1 24.7 86.3 31.7

... Figures not available.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Planning, Accountant General and Mission Estimates.

- 121 -

Table 5.5: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS, 1975/76 - 1981/82

(BDS$ million)

Prelim- Revisedinary Budget Estimates

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

Current Transfers 55.3 71.8 78.8 85.1 106.6 126.9 140.6 148.0

Non-financial public enterprises 5.6 12.3 10.6 11.5 16.2 23.5 24.3 24.3

National Housing Corporation 1.9 2.6 1.7 2.6 3.3 3#9 4.9 4.9Waterworks 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.2 8.6 5.5 5.5Post Office 0.2 0.8 - - - - 0.7 0.7Barbados Industrial Development

Corporation 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.0Transport Board - 3.7 4.6 4.5 7.6 8.0 10.0 10.0Barbados Marketing Corporation - 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2

Operating deficit of departmental 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4enterprise (Printing Office)

Other public institutions 24.9 28.5 30.0 31.5 40.6 45.6 60.0 60.0

Barbados Defense Force 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.1 4.5 7.0 7.0Schools, colleges and univer- 12.8 14.7 14.9 15.1 21.4 21.4 25.7 25.7

sitiesTourism Promotion 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 5.2 6.3 7.6 7.6Sanitation services 4.9 4.5 5.0 5.2 6.0 7.0 9.2 9.2Parks and beaches 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 4.1 4.1Export promotion 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5Caves authority - - - - - - 0.2 0.2Welfare agencies - 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.2 5.5 5.5Other 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

National Insurance Board 1.0 0.9 1.9 3.4 3.3 5.8 4.9 4.9

Non-profit insitutions 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.6

Pensions 8.5 11.2 12.9 14.7 16.7 20.5 16.0 23.4

Other transfers to individuals 11.7 14.9 19.1 19.9 24.3 25.1 27.5 27.5

Welfare grants 9.9 13.1 17.1 16.4 20.3 20.9 22.1 22.1Scholarships and bursaries 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 3.4 3.4School bus fares 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9Other - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Contribution to regional and 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.9 3.9international organizations

Capital Transfers 23.2 18.3 29.6 34.7 36.1 33.1 44.7 43.2

Non-financial public enterprises 17.8 16.7 26.3 30.6 31.8 28.1 37.6 36.1

National Housing Corporation 4.0 4.3 3.7 4.3 7.3 8.0 6.0 ...Barbados Agricultural Development

Corporation 0.7 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.2 1. 1Y 4.7A/Civil Aviation 4.2 3.2 9.3 11.5 10.2 1.3 3.1 ...Waterworks 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.8 ...Post Office 0.2 0.3 - 0.2 2.0 4.0 4.5 ...Barbados Industrial Development

Corporation 1.3 1.9 3.6 4.1 5.7 6.4 8.6 ...Transport Board 0.9 2.2 4.5 1.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 ...Barbados Marketing Corp. 3.9 1.1 1.5 2.4 0.4 0.2 2.2-/ ...

Other institutions 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.7

Caves Authority - - 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.4Parks and Beaches 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3

Public financial institutions 5.24a 1.4a/ 2.52A 2.2 1.6 1.0 2.2 2.2

Transfers abroad _ - - 1.3 1.2 1.8 3.2 3.2

... not availablea/ Includes transfers abroad.b/ Includes expenditure on the Integrated Rural Development and Spring Hall land Lease Scheme.c/ Includes expenditure on Relocation and Expansion of BNC.Sources: Ministry of Vinance and Planning and Mission Estimates.

- 122 -

Page 1 of 4Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING 1975/76 - 1981/82

(in =illiona of BD$)

Prelieiearv Budget Revised Est.1975/76 1976177 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECtOR

Corrent revenue 229.8 230.4 265.1 330.9 384.2 473.5 518.9 520.0Current eapenditure 173.6 215.5 234.6 261.4 307.2 387.0 442.7 441.4

(o.w. NFPE's deficits) (2.8) (19.0) (4.6) (7.3) (7.5) (16.4) (17.9) (17.9)

Current surplus/deficit 56.2 14.9 30.5 69.5 77.0 86.5 76.2 78.6Capital revanue - - - 0.4 0.7 - -Capital expenditure + net lending 48.5 63.0 87.9 72.7 96.3 149.6 228.5 164.3

Overall surplus/deficit (-) 7.7 -48.1 -57.4 -2.8 -18.6 -63.1 -152.3 -85.7

Financing (net) -7.7 48.1 57.4 2.8 18.6 63.1 152.3 85.7External 1.9 11.9 28.0 30.3 12.9 66.0 79.8 83.3Domestic -9.6 36.2 29.4 -27.5 5.7 -2.9 72.5 2.4

I. General Govern=ent

Current revenue 230.9 231.4 266.3 331.8 385.8 474.3 519.8 520.9Frox NFPEs (1.1) (1.0) (1.2) (0.9) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9)

Correct enpenditure 175.6 218.8 240.6 265.6 315.9 394.1 449.1 447.8To pnu-financial public enterprises (5.6) (12.3) (10.6) (11.5) (16.2) (23.5) (24.3) (24.3)

Current surplus/deficit (-) 55.3 12.6 25.7 66.2 69.9 80.2 70.7 73.1

Capital expenditure & net lending 49.3 63.4 89.9 73.0 89.3 140.5 202.7 151.9To NFPEs (20.0) (17.2) (26.3) (29.8) (31.0) (28.1) (37.6) (37.6)

Overall surplus/deficit 6-) 4.0 -50.8 -62.3 -6.8 -19.4 60.3 -132.0 -78.8

Financing (net -6.0 50.8 62.3 6.8 19.4 60.3 132.0 78.8External 1.9 11.9 zro 30.3 129 66.0 79.8 48.3Doues tic -7.9 38.9 34.3 -23.5 6.5 -5.7 52.2 30.5

IA. Central Govern=ent

Current revenue 191.6 204.5 237.3 297.1 342.4 428.2 464.8 465.1Pro= NFPEs (1.1) (1.0) (1.2) (0.9) (1.6) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)

Current expenditure 168.2 205.4 232.3 255.9 304.2 380.6 430.1 430.1To NFPEs (5.6) (12.3) (10.6) (11.5) (16.2) (23.5) (24.3) (2463)To other general g-vernaent (1.0) (0.9) (1.9) (3.4) (3.3) (5.8) (4.9) (6.1)

Current surplog/deficit (-) 23.4 -0.9 5.0 41.2 38.2 47.6 34.7 35.0

Capital expenditure & net lending 45.1 60.8 85.9 72.4 87.2 138.3 200.8 150.0To NFPEs (17.8) (16.7) (26.3) (30.6) (31.8) (28.1) (37.6) (37.6)

Overall surplus/deficit (-) -21.7 -61.7 -80.9 -31.2 -49.0 290.7 166,1 115.0

Pinancing (net) 21.7 61.7 80.9 31.2 49.0 90.7 166.1 115.0External 1.9 11.9 28.0 30.3 12.9 79.8 83.3Doxestic 19.8 49.8 52.9 0.9 36.1 24.7 86.3 31.7

I8. Other Govern=ent

Current revenue 40.3 27.8 30.9 38.1 46.7 51.9 59.9 61.9Fran Central goveraxent (1.0) (0.9) (1.9) (3.4) (3.3) (5.8) (4.9) (6.1)

Current zp-nditure 8.4 14.3 10.2 13.1 15.0 19.3 23.9 23.9

Current surplus/deficit (-) 31.9 13.5 20.7 25.0 31.7 32.6 36.0 38.0

Capital expenditure & net lending 4.2 2,6 4.0 0.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9To Central govern=ent (-) (-) (1.9) (-) (-) (-) (_)To NFPEs (2.2) (0.5) (-) (-0.8) (-0.8) () (-)

Overall s-rplus/deficit (-) 27.7 10.9 16.7 24.4 29.6 30.4 34.1 36.1

Doxestic financing -27.7 -10.9 -16.7 -24.4 -29.6 -30.4 -34.1 -36.1

- 123 -

Table 5,6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING, 1975/76 - 1981/82 Page 2 of 4(in millions of BD$)

Preliminary Budget Revined Est.1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

IC. National Insurance Fund 1/

Current revenue 19.9 21.8 24.7 32.3 40.4 45.5 54.1 56.1Contribotions (14.2) (15.9) (18.3) (25.5) (31.3) (34.0) (40.5) (42.5)Interest and others (5.7) (5.9) (6.4) (6.8) (9.1) (11.5) (13.6) (12.6)

Current expenditore 5.8 7.3 8.7 11.0 13.3 17.2 22.0 22;0Benefits (5.0) (6.3) (7.4) (9.6) (11.5) (14.8) (19.0) (19.0)Adwiinitration (0.8) (1.0) (1.3) (1.4) (1.8) (2.4) (3.0) (3.0)

Current surplus/deficit ( 14.1 14.5 16.0 21.3 27.1 28.3 32.1 34.1

Capital expenditure - 0.1 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1

Overall -nrplus/deficit (-) 14.1 14.4 16.0 21.3 27.1 28.2 32.0 34.0

Net financing -14.1 -14.4 -16.0 -21.3 -27.1 -28.2 -32.0 -34.0Central government -0.5 -7.8 -15.4 -3.2 0.1 -0.5Debentures (-3.6) (-2.4) (-5.0) (-) < ) (-27.3) (..) (. .)Treasury bills (3.1) (-5.2) (-10.4) (-3.2) (0.1) (26.8) (*..)

Development Bank .2.1 -0.8 -0.2 -1,8 - -12.7 .. . .Other governments -0.4 -1.8 -1.8 ... ...Coseerciel banks (fixed deposits) -11.8 -6.2 -0.9 -15.6 -0.1 -6.3Barbados Light and Pover - - - -1.5 -1.5 -6.9 , ...Others 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.8 -23.8 - ... ...

ID. Sugar Industry Prire Stabilization Fund 6/

Current revenue 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8loter.at raceived (0.8) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6)

Other (0.3) (0.3) (0.5) (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2)Currant expenditure - 3.5 - 0.3 0.1 0.3 -

Overall surplus/deficit (-5 1.1 -2.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8

Domestic financing -1.1 2.7 -1.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8

IE. Sugar Industry Labor Welfare Fund 1/

Current revenue 1.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1Currant expenditure 1.1 0.7 - - - - -

Overall -urplus/dafirit (-5 0.1 - 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1

Domestic financing -0.1 - -1.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1

IF. Sug-r Workers' Provident Fund 3/

Current revenue 1.5 1.5 1.6 1,5 1.4 1.6 1.5torrent expenditure 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4

Overall surplus/deficit (-) - - 0.2 01 0.1 0.2 0.1

Domestic financing - - -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1

IG. Sugar Industry Capital and Rehabilitation Pond 6/

Current revenue 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1Current expenditure - - - _ - - -

Current sorplus/deficit 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1

Capital expenditure (transfers) 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1

Overall surplus/deficit (-) 0.2 -0.2 - -

Domestic financing -0.2 0.2 - - _ _ _

IE. Su,gr LevY FPnd 1/

Current revenue 14.8 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7

Net lending 3.2 1.1 2.6 -0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7To Central government - - (1.9) - - - -To NFPRs (2.2) (0.5) - (-0.8) (-0.8) - _

Overall surplus/deficit 11.6 5.4 -2.0 1.3 0.1 - -

Domestic financing -11.6 -0.4 2.0 -1.3 -0.1

II. Other Special FPnds 1/

Current revenue 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6Current -ependitures - 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5

overall surplun/deficit (-) 0.6 -1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Domeatic financing -0.6 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

- 124 -

Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING, 1975/76 - 1981/82 Pge 3 f 4(in millions of BD$)

Preliminary Budget Revised Est.1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

II. Consolidated Ron-financial Public Enterprises

Current revenoe 47.1 52.8 62.3 70.2 94.5 119.4 134.2 134.2From Central government (5.6) (12.3) (10.6) (11.5) (16.2) (23.5) (24.3) (24.3)

Current empenditure 46.2 50.5 57.5 66.9 87.4 113.1 128.7 128.7To Central government (1.1) (1.0) (1.2) (0.9) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9)

Current -prplus/definit (-) 0.9 2.3 4.8 3.3 7.1 6.3 5.5 5.5

Capital revenue 20.0 17.2 26.3 30.2 31.7 28.1 37.6 37.6From Central government (20.0) (17.2) (26.3) (29.8) (31.0) (28.1) (37.6) (37.6)

Capital expenditare 19.2 16.8 26.2 29.5 38.0 37.2 63.4 50.0

Overall -urplus/definit 1.7 2.7 4.9 4.0 0.8 -2.8 -20.3 -6.9

Domestic financinR -1.7 -2.7 -4.9 -4.0 -0.8 2.8 25.53 6.9

IIA. National flossing Corporation 1/

C-rrent revenue 3.3 4.2 3.5 4.5 5.1 5.8 7.2From Central govertrnent (1.9) (2.6) (1.7) (2.6) (3.3) (3.9) (4.9)

Current expendit-re 2.0 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.8 7.2

Curreot surplus/daficit (-) 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 - -

Capitao revenue 4.0 4.3 3.7 4,3 7.3 8.0 6.0

From Central govarnnent (4.0) (4.3) (3.7) (4.3) (7.3) (8.0) (6.0)

Capital expenditure 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.3 7.3 8.0 6.0

Overall surplus/deficit (-) 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 -

Dotnentl financing -0.9 -1.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 - -

IIB. Barbados Agricultural Development Corporation 2/

Current reven1e 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.8 3.0 4.4 4.2Current empenditure 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.2

Current surplus/deficit (-) -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 -0.6 -0.1

Capital revenue 0.7 0.5 0.5 3.8 0.2 1.1 4.7From Central goverment (0.7) (0.5) (0.5) (3.8) (0.2) (1.1) (4.7)

Capital e-pe-diture - 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.7

Overall surplna/deficit C-) -0.4 -1.1 -1.5 2.2 -0.6 -0.1

.. --.tic financing 8.. . .... .... .0.4 1.1 1.5 -2.2 8.6 0.1

IIC. Port Authority 3/ 4/

Cnrret revenue 5.0 6.0 7.7 5.6 17.8 22.2 24.5Cnrrent eapenditure 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.3 14.2 19.2 22.8

Tlterant to Central government (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9)

Current aurplun/daficit (-) 1.9 2.2 3.9 2.3 3.6 3.0 1.7


Overall s-rplns/deficit (-) 1.2 1.5 3.2 2.0 2.3 -0.7 -11.2

Domestic financing -1.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.0 -2.3 0.7 11.2

IID. Civil Aviation Department 1/

Current revenue 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.7 5.7 8.5 9.4Current expenditure 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.9 6.3 8.0

Current surplus/deficit 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.4

Capital revenue 4.2 3.2 9.3 11.5 10.2 1.3 3.1From Central government (4.2) (3.2) (9.3) (11.5) (10.2) (1.3) (3.1)

Capital expendit-re 5.1 3.6 10.0 12.4 11.0 3.5 4.5

Overall surplun/deficit (-) _ -_ - -

Domestic financing _ _ _ _ _

IIE. Water-korbe Department 1/

Current revenue 7.2 8.1 8.9 10.2 10.9 17.1 18.4From Central government (2.5) (3.2) (2.7) (2.7) (3.2) (8.6) (5.5)

Current empendit-re 7.2 8.1 8.9 10.2 10.9 17.1 18.4

Current surplus/deficit - - _ - - - -

Capital revenue 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.8

From Central government (2.6) (3.2) (3.2) (3.1) (4.0) (4.2) (4.8)Capital empenditure 2.6 3,2 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.8

Overall sur- lus/deficit (-7 _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Domestic financing _ _

IIF. Post Office 1/

Current revenue 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.7 6.3 7.8From Central g-ovtrnent (0.2) (0.8) (-) (-) (-) (-) (0.7)

Current expenditnee 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.1 7.8

To Central government (-) (-7 (0.2) (-) (-) (-) (-)

Current surplus/deficit (-) - - 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2

Capital revenue 0.2 0.3 - 0.2 2.0 4.0 4.5From Central government (0.2) (0.3) - (0.2) (2.0) (4.0) (4.5)


Overall surplun/deficit (--

Domestic financiug

- 125 -

Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR FIIANCING, 1975/76 - 1981/82(in millions of BD$) Page 4 of 4

preliminary Budget Revised Est.

1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1981/82

IIG. Barbados Industrial Development Corporatios 1/

Current revenu.e 1.3 1.7 1L7 1.7 2.2 3.1 4.4Frn Ccentral government (1.0) (1.3) (1.2) (1.2) (1.7) (2.5) (3.0)

Current expenditure 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.4 4.4

Current surplus/deficit (-) 0.3 0.1 - -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -

Capital revenue 1.3 1.9 3.6 4.5 6.4 6.4 8.6

Fron Central government (1.3) (1.9) (3.6) (4.1) (5.7) (6.4) (8.6)Capital expenditure 1.6 1.9 3.1 4.6 5.1 6.7 10.8

Overall surplus/deficit (-) - 0,1 0.5 -0.4 0.9 -0.6 -2.2

Donestic financing - -0.1 -0.5 0-4 -0.9 0.6 2.2

IIH. TransPort Board 1/

Cnrrent revenue 5.7 10.4 14.0 17.9 22.1 24.0 30.6From Central government (-) (3.7) (4.6) (4.5) (7.6) (8.0) (10.0)

Current empenditure 6.6 8.8 12.4 17.4 20.3 24.0 30.6

Current surplnn/deficit -) -0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.8 - -

Capital revenue 0.9 2.2 4.5 1.2 2.0 2.9 3.7From Central government (0.9) (2.2) (4.5) (1.2) (2.0) (2.9) (3.7)

Current expenditore 1.6 2.2 4.2 1.2 2.5 4.1 8.8

Overall surplus deficit (-) 1.6 1.6 1.9 0.5 1.3 -1.2 -5.1

Domestic financing 1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -0.5 -1.3 1.2 5.1

II I. Barbados Marketing Corporation 1/ 5/

Current revenue 11.3 8.0 9.5 11.7 14.0 19.5 16.6From Central government (-) (0.7) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.2)

Current eapenditore 12.9 9.9 10.5 11.9 13.9 19.3 16.4

Current surplus/deficit (-) -1.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

Capital revenue 3.9 1.1 1.5 2.4 0.4 0.2 2.2

From Centrul government (3.9) (1.1) (1.5) (2.4) (0.4) (0.2) (2.2)Capital expenditure 2.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.5 2.2

Overall surplus/deficit (-) 0.2 -0.9 0.4 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2

Domestic financing -0.2 0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.2

IIJ, Natural Gas Corporation 1/


Current surplus/deficit (-) - 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8

Capital expenditore 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 3.2 1.0 3.2

Overall surplus/deficit -0.5 0.1 0.1 -1.2 -2.8 -0.9 -1.4

Domestic financing 0.5 0.1 -0.1 1.2 2.8 0.9 1.4

IIK. Caribbean Broadcasting Cororation


Current surplus/deficit (-) 0.1 0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4

Capital expenditure 0.4 - 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.0

Overall surplus/deficit (-) -0.3 - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 -0.6

Domestic financing 0.3 - -(.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.8 0.6

1/ Year ending March 31.2/ Year ending June 30.3/ Year ending December 31.4/ Until 1977/78 the financial year ended March 31; 1978/79 accounts wore for a nine-month period, April - December.5/ Until 1975/76 the financial year ended July 31; hence 1976/77 accounts ver- for an eight-mneth period, August - March.6/ Year ending July 31.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Planning, National Insurance Board, IMF, accounts of public enterprises and mission estimates.

- 126 Page 1 of 2

Table 5.7: BARBADOS - P7BLIC SECTOR INVESYTENT PROGRAMi, EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS, 1981/82-1985/86

(in millions of BD$)

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1981/82-1985/86Eaternal Total E.teeral Total Erteroal Total Eatareal Total Rotetn-1 Total External Total

1. PROJECTS WITH FINANCING

Central Cov-rnoeot 36.00 53.13 23.58 35.22 10.82 14.51 6.91 9.48 _ - 77.31 112.32

Aericolture 3.11 5.48 0.86 1.50 0.30 0.52 - - - - 1.27 7.50Agronotic Research Laboratory 0.86 1.50 0.86 1.50 0.30 0.52 - - - - 2.02 3.52Dittin FiPh-rle Deevelop-rt 1.81 3.15 -- - 1.81 3.10Agrieulturtl Ploning &g DeelOp-ant

for Food Pr-duction 0.05 0.20 - - - - - - - - 0.05 0.20Anil Nutrition 0.10 0.20 - - - - -_ - - 0.10 0.20Aniaa1 & Hae Health Project 0.29 0.48 -0 .29 0.40

Industry 0.03 0.03 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 - 1.97 1.97Coax Separarion II 0.03 0.05 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 -- 1.97 1.97

Tourism 8.40 11.80 6.90 10.18 5.28 7.86 3.7H 6.18 24.36 35.96Reywnod Holiday Village Project 8.40 11.80 6.90 10.18 5.28 7.80 3.78 6.18 - - 24 36 35.96

Reede 2.14 2.48 3.16 3.80 3.17 3.82 2.13 2.30 - - 10.60 12.40Spring Gtrde=/SJPP Reed 2.12 2.30 2.13 2.30 2.12 2.30 2.13 2.30 - - 8.50 9.20Spring Garden Read (T.A.) 0.12 0.18 1.03 1.50 1.05 1.52 - - 2.10 3.20

Education 13.07 19.38 7.15 11.93 - - - - 20.22 31.31S0J. Pressed Polytechoic In-titote 5.80 7.26 - - - - - - - 5.80 7.26RehAbilitati-n of Primary eod

Se-ood-ry Educanioc 8ystea 7.27 12.12 7.15 11.93 - - - - - - 14.42 24.05

Energy 0.20 0.20 - - - - 0.20 0.20Petroleum cod En-rgy Study 0.20 0.20 - - - - - - - 0.20 0.70

Health 8.05 12.76 3.54 5.84 0.10 0.40 - _ 11.69 19.00Bridgeto-n Se-erage Pro-je- 7.45 10.66 3.04 4.34 - - - 10.49 15.00Comau=ity Heelth Clinics 0.60 2.10 0.50 1.50 0.10 0.40 - - - - 1.20 4.00

Oth-rs 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - 4.00 4.00BHN Employgent Sector Project 1.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - 4.00 4.00

Ret of Phblic Sector 12.81 22.61 15.24 26.73 11.59 21.27 5.18 10.84 - 44.82 81.45

Agric-ltoe- 3.85 5.70 6.27 9.87 2.01 3.09 1.64 2.53 - _ 5.75 21.19Ineagrated Ree1 Derolopent 1.76 2.70 2.79 4.28 2.01 3.09 1.64 2.53 - - .25 02.60Spring Relld L-d Lease 0.90 1.00 0.45 0.80 - - - - - - 1.35 1.80Elp.t.ion of BMC 1.17 2.00 3.03 4.79 - - - _ - - 4.20 6.79

I=duitry 6.18 12.11 5.30 10.60 6.00 12.12 2.52 4.68 - - 20.00 30.51ledustirl Detelop-ent end Etpoet 019.0 38510

Protlotio (IDC, BDB) 5.18 10.78 5.30 10.60 6.00 12.12 2.52 4.68 - - 1.00 1.33Industrial Esttte 1.00 1.33 - - - - - -

Water 2.80 4.80 3.67 6.26 3.58 6.06 1.02 3.63 - - 11.07 20.75Water Developta2t Pr-jec- 2.80 4.80 3.67 6.26 3.58 6.06 1.02 3.63 - - 11.07 20.75

ProJects Gusra=taed bY the Goveremant 10.66 11.06 21.06 21.46 17.50 17.50 6.10 6.10 - - 55.32 56.12

Agriculture 1/ 0.01 0.81 0.01 0.81 - - - - 1.62 1.62Agricnlt-rel Credit (DB)0- 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 - - - - - - 1.62 1.62

Powr 1/ 6.60 6.60 16.00 16.00 13.00 13.00 2.60 2.60 - - 38.20 38.20Pover Espa=-ion- 6.60 6.60 16.00 16.00 13.00 13.00 2.60 2.60 - - 38.20 35.20

Oth.r. 3.25 3.65 4.25 4.65 4.50 4.50 3.50 3.50 - - 15.50 16.30Olohel Laces to 818- 2.00 2.00 5.50 3.50 4.50 4.50 3.50 3.50 - - 14.00 14.00Etrgency Credit Progr-e (BDB) 0.75 1.15 0.75 1.15 - - - - 1.50 2.30

SI. PRDJECTE P00 WHIRCH F12ANCltG IE REQURETEQ

Central Go-ernot 0.88 1.28 14.20 21.70 23.56 36.06 29.26 45.56 18.00 26.00 85.90 130.60

Agric=lture - - 3.60 5.40 7.80 12.00 11.10 17.20 10.80 15.00 33.30 49.60Sugar Rehehilitation 4 Hech-ins-ti-e - - 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.40 1.60 2.40 4.00 6.O0 0.00 12 00Develepsiet of Pieheries- 1.20 2.00 2.20 5.60 3.60 6.00 4.80 6.00 11.80 17.60Pish Terminal Speight-to-n - - 0.80 100 0.80 1.20 1.90 2.8O - - 5.50 5.00Fishing R-rbhr at Brighatoan - - 0.80 1.20 3.20 4.80 4.00 6.00 2.00 3.00 10.00 15.00

Reads 0.20 0.28 9.80 15.10 14.76 22.66 17.96 27.96 7.20 11.00 50.00 77.00Coe-es Coeservtien - - 0.70 1.00 0.70 1.00 1.00 5.00 1.80 -)T- 5.00 85 - B.00test Coast Reed - - 5.40 9.00 8.40 14.00 10.20 17.00 - - 24.00 40.00dtceta Reod Phase R I - - 2.60 4.00 4.00 6.00 4.00 6.00 5.40 8.00 16.00 24.00Read Rehbilitetion 0.28 0.28 1.10 1.10 1.66 1.66 1.96 1.96 - - 5.00 5.00

Ed-oatiin 0.60 1.00 0.86 1.20 1.O 1.40 0.20 0.40 - - 2.60 4.00Otadact Loaa Fund 00 0.60 1.00 0.80 1.20 1.00 1.40 0.20 0.40 - -_ .60 0.0o0

Rest of the Public Sector 6.24 7.64 6.50 9.50 2.54 4.14 3.65 5.65 2.67 3.67 11.60 30.60

Tra-Prort 1.60 3.00 2.20 2.20 - - - - -_ - 3.80 5.20ISprovemant of the Phblic Tranaport 3.80 5.27

Syetes 1.60 3.00 2.20 2.20 - - -

Oner-, 0.64 0.64 3.10 5.30 0.14 0.14 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 5.20 7.40LPG E.ereclion Plant - - 2.60 4.80 - - - - - - 2.60 4.80Gas T-ats-lssi-n sd Distribhtion

Sy.tem 0.64 0.64 0.50 0.50 0.14 0.14 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 2.60 2.60

HousinR - - 0.60 1.00 1.80 3.00 3.00 5.00 2.00 3.00 7.40 12.00Low Coat REouing Progrem - - 0.60 1.00 1.80 3.00 3.00 5.00 2.00 3.00 7.40 12.00

Health - - 0.60 1.00 0.60 1.00 - - - - 1.20 2.00Brldgeto-n Se-age Reuse Pilot Scheme - - 0.60 1.00 0.60 1.30 - - - - 1.20 2.00

Port 4.00 4.00 - - - - - 4.00 4.00Coetai-er Orn.e Aoqeinotio 4.00 4.00 - - - - - - - - 4.00 4.00

Pro-ects Gurteered by the Governeent

LndutrYy 8.10 8.10 27.50 27.50 19.40 19.48 - - - - 55.00 55.00Small BWoiee.7 L.e (BDB)- - - 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 - - 55.00 55.00Cement Pla=t- 8.10 8.10 27.00 27.00 18.90 18.90

1/ lIcludes only the portio= g.raeteed by the g- -ternent.

S-orces: Ministry of Ploncieg and elusIon eatimatee.

- 127 - Page 2 f 2

Table 5.7: BARBADOS - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS, 1981/82-1985/86

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1981/82-1985/86External Total External Total External Total Eaternal Total External Total External Total

(US'000)III. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

Agriculture 349 639 784 610 500 2882Sweet Potato & Cassava Research

and Development 244 244 244 - - 732Fruit Orchard Management - - - 180 - 180Irrigation Development - 130 130 130 - 390Dairy Operations Improvement 25 25 - - - 50Hatching Eggs - - 20 - - 20Pig Breeding Unit - - 10 - - 10Planning Assistance/or

Agricoltural Projects 80 90 80 - - 250Animal Feed Studies - 150 300 300 500 1250

Tourism 72 - 72Establishrent of National Park 72 - - - 72

Education - 712 712 1424Re-equipment of School Meals

Program - 712 712 - - 1424

Health - 60 329 389National Health & Drug Services - 60 329 - _ 389

Administration 201 326 296 377 349 1549Land Registry 0 5100Central Bank Systems Analyst 60 60 - - - 120Tax Administration 41 40 - - - 81Industrial Planning & Implementation 25 26 -- -- - 51Consumer Policy Formation 25 50 79 - - 154Hydrographic Survey - 100 100 - _ 200H'ousing Addinistration - _ - 160 - 160Building Materials Research and

Development - - 87 87 87 261Hotel Reclassification - - - - 54 54Establishment of Securities

Exchange - - - 30 - 36Technology & Methods of Fighting

Sugarca-e Fires - - 30 - - 30Institutional Strengthening -

Ministry of Works - - - 100 208 308

Energy - 200 200 490 390 1280Wave Power Study - 100 100 200 100 500Wind Power - 100 100 290 290 780

Total Technical As.i.tanc. 622 1937 2321 1477 1239 7596

(in nillions of BD$)

IV. SUMMARY (excluding Projects guaranteed by the Government)

Projects with Financing 48.81 75.74 38.82 61.95 22.41 35.78 12.09 20.32 - - 122.13 193.79Projects for which Financing

is Bequired 7.12 8.92 20.70 31.20 26.10 40.20 32.91 51.21 20.67 29.67 107.50 161.20Technical Assistance 1.24 1.24 3.87 3.87 4.64 4.64 2.95 2.95 2.48 2.48 15.18 15.18

TOTAL 57.17 85.90 63.39 97.02 53.15 80.62 47.95 74.48 23.15 32.15 244.81 370.17

Sources: Ministry of Planning and mission estimates.

- 128 -

Table 5 .8: BARBADOS-PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND FINANCINGFY1981/82 - FY1985/86

(BDs$ Million)

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 Total

Public Sector Capital Expenditures 164.3 179.0 192.6 219.4 264.0 1019.3and Net Lending


Rest of Public Sector 14.3 9.0 9.6 11.4 13.0 57.3

Financing

Public Sector Savings a! 78.6 105.2 132.5 164.5 186.4 667.2


Rest of General Government 31.8 33.7 38.5 41.1 46.6 191.7

Public Sector Enterprise -17.9 -12.7 -14.4 -13.7 -15.5 -74.2

Net External Borrowing 83.3 91.8 51.4 5.4L 71.8 343.7

Gross Disbursement 97.0 103.8 67.0 62.0 90.0 419.8

Project related 42.0 66.0 55.0 62.0 90.0 315.0CDF-type 41.0 37.8 12.0 - - 90.8

Other c/ 14.0 - - - - 14.0

Amortization -13.7 -12.0 -15.6 -16.6 -18.2 -76.1


Memorandum Items

As % of GDP

Public Sector Investment 9.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.4


Net External Borrowing 4.5 4.3 2.1 i.6 2.3 2.8


As % of Capital Expenditure




a/ Consolidatedb/ Includes Grants.c/ Financial institutions and suppliers credits.

Source: Ministry of Finance and Mission estimates.

- 129 -

Table 6.1: BARBADOS - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1975-80

(in millions of Barbados dollars)

December 311975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Net international reserves 71.2 36.6 49.3 108.8 127.2 171.1

Net overseas operations -23.3 -21.9 -19.7 -23.3 -27.8 -39.4

Net domestic assets 318.3 394.2 456.0 472.2 592.1 666.1Net claims on public sector 14.7 45.5 93.5 58.0 73.0 57.3

Net Central Government a/ b/ (82.1) (120.9) (169.5) (157.3) (196.5) (203.0)Net other general government (-31.8) (-29.6) (-27.3) (-32.1) (-33.1) (-27.7)Net decentralized agencies (-2.5) (-4.3) (-9.5) (-10.8) (-14.2) (-15.6)Net Social Security Fund (-33.1) (-41.5) (-39.2) (-56.4) (-76.2) (-92.9)

Official capital and surplus -19.3 -20.4 -25.9 -19.3 -20.0 -20.0Credit to unconsolidated banking

system 12.9 20.1 18.2 30.6 24.4 32.2Credit to rest of financial

system 3.3 4.6 2.9 4.9 10.9 8.0Credit to private sector 285.0 323.2 352.7 397.5 495.3 593.0Non- mnetary international

organizations -0.1 -1.2 -2.6 -0.9 -0.7 -2.6Net unclassified assets 9.4 7.9 -3.5 -8.7 -15.2 -29.3Net interbank float 12.4 14.5 20.7 10.1 24.4 27.5

Counterpart unrequited foreignexchange 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 10.4 14.8

Medium- and long-term foreignliabilities b/ 4.6 7.5 33.6 40.6 34.9 30.9

Liabilities to unconsolidatedbanking system 4.0 6.5 0.5 4.3 11.2 6.2

Liabilities to rest of financialsystem 16.0 18.6 22.2 24.3 29.0 32.1

Liabilities to private sector 335.6 369.6 422.9 482.5 606.0 713.8Currency outside banks 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2 72.0 98.1Demand deposits 55.6 55.9 68.8 78.8 120.9 123.9Quasi-liquid liabilities 235.5 264.3 294.7 336.6 403.8 479.2Private and capital surplus 4.5 3.1 6.0 5.9 9.3 12.6

a! Includes counterpart deposits of the Government's foreign assets.b/ Loans in foreign currency to the Government by the First National Bank of Chicago, whose branch

office in Barbados closed in 1978, are treated as foreign borrowing throughout.

Sources: Central Bank of Barbados, IMF.

- 130 -

Table 6.2: BARBADOS - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE MONETARY AUTHORITIES, 1975-80


December 311975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Net International reserves 81.0 56.7 58.7 103.2 118.4 158.2Assets 81.0 56.7 74.6 120.2 135.6 164,0Liabilities - - -15.9 -17.0 -17.2 -5.8

Net domestic assets 3.4 25.3 57.8 31.1 52.7 29.8Net claims on public sector -7.6 3.4 49.5 17.2 47.9 35.7

Net Central Government 12.0 23.9 68.5 40.4 75.3 70.8Assets (28.0) (38.0) (79.6) (53.1) (89.9) (87.4)Liabilities (-16.0) (-14.1) (-11.1) (-12.7) (-14.6) (-16.6)

Net other general government -17.3 -18.5 -15.4 -20.4 -24.1 -30.3Net other decentralized agencies -1.7 -1.2 -3.0 -1.6 -1.7 -2.8Net Social Security Fund -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0

Official capital and surplus -8.7 -9.2 -10.2 -11.3 -12.0 -12.0Credit to commercial banks 0.3 3.0 4.5 - 1.2 1.2Credit to rest of banking system 12.9 20.1 14.1 24.0 14.4 23.8Non-Monetary international

organizations -0.1 -1.2 -2.6 -0.9 -0.7 -2.6Net unclassified assets 6.6 9.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 -16.3

Counterpart unrequited foreignexchange 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 10.4 14.8

Medium- and long-term foreignliabilities - - 20.0 20.0 16.0 12.0

Liabilities to commercial banks 37.6 28.6 35.0 42.5 64.6 59.6

Liabilities to rest of bankingsystem 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.6 8.1 3.5

Liabilities to private sector 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2 72.0 98.1Currency in circulation 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2 72.0 98.1

Sources: Central of Barbados, IMF.

- 131 -

Table 6.3: BARBADOS - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKS, 1975-80


December 311975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Net international reserves -9.8 -20.1 -9.4 5.6 8.8 12,9Assets 25.0 20.2 26.8 27.7 44.0 47.9Liabilities -34.8 -40.3 -36.2 -22.1 -35.2 -35.0

Net overseas operations -23.3 -21.9 -19.7 -23.3 -27.8 -39.4Assets 7.6 8.8 8.6 3.8 4.7 5.1Liabilities -30.9 -30.7 -28.3 -27.1 -32.5 -44.5

Monetary reserves and currencyholdings 37.9 28.1 36.4 44.2 62.9 62.9

Net domestic assets 301.6 352.5 377.5 411.5 517.4 584.1Net claims on public sector 21.8 41.2 43.6 44.4 46.9 38.0Net Central Government 69.6 96.1 100.6 116.3 120.7 131.7

Assets (72.9) (100.7) (104.9) (123.9) (130.5) (142.8)

Liabilities (-3.3) (-4.6) (-4.3) (-7.6) (-9.8) (-11.1)Net other general government -14.5 -11.1 -11.9 -11.7 -9.0 -6.9Net other decentralized

agencies -0.8 -3.1 -6.5 -9.2 -12.5 -12.8Net Social Security funds -32.5 -40.7 -38.6 -51.0 -52.3 -74.0

Official capital and surplus -10.6 -11.2 -15.7 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0Credit to rest of banking

system 0.1 0.5 4.9 8.3 10.9 10.0Credit to rest of financial

system 3.3 4.6 2.9 4.9 10.9 8.0Credit to private sector 271.8 302.9 326.8 362.6 443.9 521.4Net unclassified assets 3.1 -0.5 -4.3 -9.1 -14.8 -9.5Net interbank float 12.1 15.0 19.3 8.4 26.1 24.2

Medium- and long-term foreignliabilities a/ 3.9 6.8 12.5 19.3 17.1 17.1

Liabilities to monetaryauthorities 0.3 3.0 4.5 - 1.2 1.2

Liabilities to rest of bankingsystem 11.1 11.2 2.8 10.1 18.5 8.1

Liabilities to rest of financialsystem 16.0 18.6 22.2 24.3 29.0 32.1

Liabilities to private sector 275.1 299.0 342.8 384.3 494.0 562.0Demand deposits 55.6 55.9 68.8 78.8 120.9 123.9Time, savings, and foreign

currency deposits 215.7 240.7 268.7 300.3 364.5 426.2Private capital and surplus 3.8 2.4 5.3 5.2 8.6 11.9

a/ Loans in foreign currency to the Government by the First National Bank of Chicago, whose branch office inBarbados closed in 1978, are treated as foreign borrowing throughout.


- 132 -

Table 6.4: BARBADOS - DETAILED ACCOUNTS OF THE TRUST COMPANIES, 1975-80


December 311975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Monetary reserve and currency holdings 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.6 8.1 3.5

Net domestic assets 20.5 25.1 26.9 35.4 34.6 53.6Net claims on public sector 0.5 0.9 0.4 -3.6 -21.8 -16.4Net Central Government (0.5) (0.9) (0.4) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5)Net Social Security funds (-) (-) (_) (-4.2) (-22.3) (-16.9)

Credit to commercial banks 7.1 4.7 2.3 5.8 7.3 1.9Credit to private sector 13.2 20.3 25.9 34.9 51.4 71.6Mortgage loans (private) (10.2) (16.1) (20.5) (27.3) (40.8) (57.9)Mortgage loans (other) (0.8) (0.2) (1.2) (2.6) (4.3) (4.7)Mortgage loans (industrial andcommercial) (1.8) (3.9) (4.0) (4.9) (5.9) (8.1)

Other loans (0.4) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) (0.9)Net unclassified assets -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7 -2.3 -3.5

Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.8

Liabilities to conmercial banks 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 0.9 1.6

Liabilities to private sector 20.5 24.3 26.7 37.0 40.0 53.7Time deposits 19.8 23.6 26.0 36.3 39.3 53.0Private capital and surplus 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7


- 133 -

Table 6.5: BARBADOS - DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING TO PRIVATE SECTOR, 1970-80

(Z)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Personal 19.2 19.2 24.0 22.2 24.6 26.5 27.9 26.8 28.5 28.6 25.1

Distribution 17.3 20.1 22.8 22.3 21.4 18.3 16.4 18.4 18.3 14.8 16.3

Manufacturing 7.4 8.4 7.7 8.6 10.4 10.1 7.9 9.0 10.3 13.7 17.6

Construction 9.6 10.4 11.8 13.7 13.7 11.9 11.2 11.0 9.6 9.7 7.3

Tourism 13.5 12.6 10.6 11.4 10.6 12.5 13.2 12.8 12.5 10.3 11.6

Agriculture 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.0 4.6 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7

Fisheries 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 3.4 3.8 3.7 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1

Mining and Quarrying 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.3

Public Utilities 9.8 6.6 4.7 5.8 3.1 4.5 6.2 5.9 4.9 7.1 5.7

Transportation 2.3 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4

Financial Institutions 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.0

Entertainment and Catering 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.6

Professional and OtherServices 12.5) 12.1) 7.1) 2-6 3-6 3-4 3.2 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.3

Miscellaneous ) 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.6 2.6 2.8 3.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Central Bank of Barbados.

- 134 -

Table 6.6 BARBADOS-COMMERCIAL BANKS SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1968-JAN. 1981

(Percentage Per Annum)

Period PrimeEnded Savings 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Lending

Dec. 1968 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 8.0Dec. 1969 4.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 8.5Dec. 1970 4.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 8.5Dec. 1971 4.5 6.25 6.5 6.5 8.5Dec. 1972 3.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 8.0Dec. 1973 3.5 - 6.0 7.0 - 10.0 7.0 - 10.0 7.0 - 10.0 10.0 - 11.0Dec. 1974 4.5 - 8.0 7.5 - 10.0 7.5 - 10.0 7.5 - 10.0 10.0 - 12.0Dec. 1975 3.0 - 7.0 3.5 - 6.5 4.5 - 6.5 5.0 - 7.0 9.0 - 10.0Dec. 1976 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.25 - 5.0 7.5 - 8.5Dec. 1977 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75 - 5.0 7.5 - 8.0Dec. 1978 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 3.75 - 6.0 8.0 - 8.5Dec. 1979 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75 - 5.5 8.0 - 8.5Dec. 1980 5.0 - 5.25 5.0 - 5.5 5.25 - 6.0 5.5 - 6.5 9.0 - 9.5

1981Jan. 7.0 - 7.25 7.0 - 7.25 7.0 - 7.5 7.0 - 7.75 9.0 - 11.0

Sources: East Caribbean Currency Authority; Central Bank of Barbados.

- 135 -

Table 6.7: BARBADOS - PROJECTED SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM

(BDS$ million)

Projected1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Net International Reserves 127.2 171.1 187.1 236.6 268.8 309.9 343.5

Net Domestic Assets 563.3 652.2 735.4 824.9 940.4 1074.2 1217.0

Credit to the Public Sector (net) 73.0 57.3 59.4 46.4 48.4 57.6 64.3

Credit to the Private Sector 495.3 593.0 674.0 774.5 886.0 1008.6 1142.7

Credit to the Rest of -4.9 1.9 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0Financial System (net)

Liabilities to the Private Sector 606.0 713.8 802.0 934.0 1068.7 1230.6 1394.0

Money and Quasi-money 596.7 701.2 787.0 916.0 1047.7 1206.6 1367.0

Other 9.3 12.6 15.0 18.0 21.0 24.0 27.0

Counterpart Unrequitted Foreign 10.4 14.8 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2Exchange

Medium- and Long-term Foreign-/ 62.7 70.3 72.3 74.3 82.3 90.3 98.3Liabilities

Other Liabilities-/ 11.5 24.4 29.0 34.0 39.0 44.0 49.0

a/ Includes net overseas operations.

b/ Includes, on a net basis, official capital and surplus, liabilities to non-monetary internationalorganizations, interbank float, and other domestic liabilities.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados, IMF, Mission Estimates (1981-85)

- 136 -

Table 7.1: BARBADOS-RETAIL PRICE INDEX, 1968-79, AND JAN.-MAY, 1980

(October 1965 - 100)

Household Education,Food and Operations and Yedical and Trans- Recreation and All

Period Beverages Housing Furnishing Clothing Personal Care portation Miscellaneous Items

Weights 58.7% 9.1% 8.9% 6.9% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 100%

1968 114.1 121.2 110.1 103.2 112.8 105.3 119.9 113.41969 119.8 145.8 112.2 111.8 115.8 105.7 130.1 119.41970 127.6 147.6 119.0 118.6 131.7 122.1 142.9 128.71971 147.6 153.8 129.6 130.7 155.6 125.9 150.7 144.71972 161.1 156.6 134.2 138.5 158.3 138.3 151.6 154.81973 189.7 186.7 153.6 157.6 171.1 158.7 182.0 180.91974 273.8 246.7 239.9 196.0 202.0 187.4 219.7 251.31975 335.0 269.0 274.0 252.5 237.4 222.3 259.9 302.31976 349.2 285.1 279.5 276.0 246.9 241.9 287.6 317.41977 379.0 321.3 287.0 292.1 285.1 237.2 327.1 343.91978 417.2 346.3 309.0 301.2 322.1 272.1 353.6 376.71979 463.3 398.2 418.6 335.9 364.6 310.4 374.8 426.11979

January 442.7 363.8 341.9 300.1 345.9 283.7 366.3 393.6February 445.3 368.7 372.5 298.3 345.5 283.9 366.5 403.1March 452.0 371.8 372.9 303.5 349.4 283.9 368.7 408.1April 450.6 378.5 376.1 305.4 351.7 284.3 368.7 408.4May 439.9 381.6 401.2 314.4 359.8 298.7 377.0 407.0June 443.1 381.7 408.3 312.1 363.8 298.7 377.0 409.5July 461.8 397.1 413.2 318.1 365.4 298.8 377.0 422.8August 471.9 407.7 417.7 346.0 371.2 326.7 378.7 434.0September 481.9 429.5 472.8 345.9 373.1 330.4 377.0 447.0October 483.6 429.5 472.3 380.0 377.0 339.4 377.0 451.0November 488.0 432.4 480.8 404.0 383.2 345.9 382.0 457.5December 499.3 436.5 493.8 403.4 389.8 350.7 382.0 465.91980

January 515.3 452.1 496.6 411.0 391.8 350.0 387.1 478.3

February 510.9 457.7 506.1 420.7 392.1 350.2 407.1 478.5March 520.9 468.1 511.9 429.5 403.2 350.2 409.1 487.1April 524.8 471.2 513.4 443.0 407.7 357.3 409.3 491.4may 529.6 472.8 549.7 438.0 415.2 387.8 416.8 499.7

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

- 137 -

Table 7.1.1: BARIIADOS - RETAIL PKICE INDEX. JANUARY 1979 TO DECEMBER 1980

March 1980 - 100

Alcoholic Fuel Household Clothing Education,Food 8everages Housing and Operations and Medical and Trans- Rqcreatien and All

and Tobacco Light and Suoplies Footwear Peronsal Care portation Miscellaneous It..sWleights 43.2% 8.4% 73.1Z 6.2% 9.6% 5.1X 6.0% 4.6% 3.8% 100.0%

1979 January ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 84.8February ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 85.7

March ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 86.8April ... ... ... ..... ... ... ... ... 86.8Kay...... ... ... ... ... ... ... 86. 5June ... ............. ... ... 87.1July.... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 89.9August ... ... ... ... ......... ... 92.3September ... ... ......... ... ... ... 95.0October 96.7 95.8 99.1 87.4 99.9 84.6 98.2 90.0 98.1 95.9November 97.3 95.8 99.1 87.4 99.3 89.4 98.3 93.6 98.1 96.5December 98.4 96.3 97.9 93.7 98.5 97.7 99.2 94.2 98.3 97.9

1980 January 98.2 99.3 97.9 93.7 98.8 98.1 100.2 99.9 98.3 98.5February 99.0 99.3 97.9 95.2 99.3 98,5 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.3March 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0April 101.3 102.6 100.1 97.8 100.0 100.6 101.4 102.5 100.0 100.9May 101.7 103.7 100.1 99.4 100.3 99.6 102.5 102.5 100.2 101.3June 104.1 106.8 100.8 99.3 102.6 107.7 103.0 102.7 100.2 103.4July 105.6 107.8 100.8 99.4 103.3 105.7 103.4 102.6 100.2 104.1August 105.1 109.4 101.1 103.4 103.7 107.4 104.0 104.7 100.5 104.5September 105.4 110.2 101.2 103.4 105.8 107.9 104.2 105.1 105.2 105.2October 106.9 112.1 101.2 103.4 106.5 112.9 105.0 105.3 105.2 106.4November 108.0 114.5 101.2 107.7 107.8 113.3 105.6 105.3 107.3 107.6December 110.6 112.9 122.1 107.7 108.2 115.8 106.4 105.4 107.3 111.6

Source: garbados Statistical Service

- 138 -

Table 7.2: BARBADOS - PERCENTAGE WAGE INCREASES, 1976-80

Section 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Manufacturing 8.6 11.2 17.5 24.0 33.8

Retail Trade 0.0 35.3 - 22.0 31.0

Wholesale Trade 27.0 6.0 16.0 22.0 30.8

Transportation 5.2 9.4 0.2 25.0 -

Construction 31.0 10.0 16.0 - 34.7

Hotel Trade 5.2 33.9 25.0 21.5 20.1

Agriculture 0.0 4.2 21.2 - 28.1

Government 23.5 11.5 15.0 - 30.4

Average 12.6 15.2 13.9 14.3 23.9

Source: Labor Department

- 139 T

Table 8.1: BARBADOS - PRODUCTION OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 1971-80

UnitsCommodities (000) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Export AgricultureSugar Cane (a) Tons. 1,233 1,060 1,089 956 845 918 1,045 895 1,052 1205.0Onions (b) KG. 907 1,134 816 823 863 680 674 743 545 640.9Peanuts (c) Kg. 53 168 168 156 156 - 37 51 ...

Cotton (d) Kg. 5 23 51 69 161 88 26 15 17 21.8

Domestic Food CropsYams Kg. 14,352 12,045 7,768 5,103 6,610 5,702 4,995 8,528 8,315 7,817.0Sweet Potatoes Kg. 6,762 7,645 4,178 3,261 2,917 2,874 1,074 4,990 6,604 4,138.9Beets Kg. 136 544 816 617 830 247 382 384 228 356.4Pumpkins Kg. 301 606 606 301 252 227 67 283 135 -Carrots Kg. 697 987 1,393 1,205 950 1,125 497 1,814 557 2,394.5String Beans Kg. 67 94 135 259 162 522 179 181 290 520.9Tomatoes Kg. 365 391 493 437 444 449 122 728 1,456 1,636.4Cucumbers Kg. 587 882 602 1,056 1,508 744 590 1,755 968 -Cabbage Kg. 408 609 793 782 718 617 260 816 742 1,716.9

Livestock ProductsPigs (c) Kg. 1,721 1,726 1,460 941 654 1,277 454 1,336 693 920.7Cows & Calves (c) Kg. 571 447 454 373 180 181 180 249 194 410.3Goats & Sheep (c) Kg. 143 114 116 113 35 70 34 21 40 62.3Poultry (c) Kg. 737 1,497 2,371 2,508 2,897 3,138 3,719 4,274 4,928 5,247.6Eggs (c) Kg. 846 855 862 907 1,662 1,681 1,701 1,814 1,722 1,040.0Milk (e) Kg. 1,892 2,061 2,174 2,366 2,298 2,541 2,641 2,933 3,192 5,500.0

Sources: (a) Ministry of Agriculture; Sugar Producers' Association.(b) Ministry of Agriculture; Barbados Agricultural Society.(c) Ministry of Agriculture; Central Bank Estimates (Dead weight for pigs,cows,calves,goats,sheep & poultry).(d) Agricultural Development Corporation.(e) Annual Reports, Barbados Dairy Industries Ltd.

- 140 -

Table 8.2: BARBADOS - SUGAR STATISTICS, 1971-80

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980-/

Area of Canes Reaped ('000 Hectares) 19.7 17.8 18.7 16.8 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.1Tons of Canes Milled ('000) 1233.0 1060.0 1040.0 956.0 845.0 919.0 1045.0 895.0 1052.0 1205.0Cane Yield (Tons Cane/Hectare Reaped) 62.6 59.7 53.2 57.0 52.5 57.8 66.3 56.4 66.3 74.9Rainfall (Inches) 49.5 50.7 48.2 45.0 64.2 54.6 45.4 54.5Sugar Production ('000 Tons) 137.2 112.8 117.9 110.7 98.6 103.6 120.0 101.0 114.0 135.0Sugar Yield (Tons Cane/Tons Sugar) 9.0 9.4 9.2 8.6 8.6 10.0 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.0Number of Factories in Operation 13 12 12 10 8 8 8 9 8 8

Exports ('000 Tons) 116.1 92.8 109.5 88.7 71.8 8.27 JL4 4 77.8 83.0 109.0

- to EEC 116.1 92.8 109.5 50.6 48.3 50.6 62.5 59.8 ... ...- to US - - - 28.0 21.8 30.4 37.0 16.5 ... ...- to Others 10.1 1.7 1.7 - 1.5

a/ Preliminary

Sources: Barbados Sugar Producers Association and Annual Overseas Trade Yearbooks.

- 141 -

Table 8.3: BARBADOS - PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURED GOODS, 1974-80

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Food products and beverages(in thousand units)

Lard (pounds) . 2,686 2,468 2,621 2,733 3,264 2,775 3,204.Margarine (pounds) 3,684 3,858 3,810 4,333 5,205 4,574 4,933Biscuits (pounds) 7,966 8,311 8,741 8,475 8,213 8,188 8,664Macaroni (pounds) 2,072 1,963 2,323 2,267 2,619 3,224 3,931Animal feeds (pounds) 46,168 62,697 76,295 84,524 78,004 87,240 87,581Milk products (pounds)- 9,949 19,774 22,125 21,337 21,461 21,703 21,964Rum (gallons) 1,739 1,790 1,916 2,344 2,350 1,640 2,237Beer (gallons) 1,366 1,300 1,324 1,608 1,990 1,623 1,887Malt beverages (gallons) 856 614 596 693 953 641 726Carbonated beverages (gallons) 3,670 3,656 3,752 4,009 4,347 4,381 4,161Cigarettes (pounds) 349 456 416 418 505 507 494

Chemicals, metal and electricalproducts (in thousand units)

Oxygen (cubic feet) 2,635 2,919 2,938 3,107 3,299 3,391 4,009Acetylene (cubic feet) 576 592 646 745 766 782 958Carbon dioxide (pounds) 648 701 657 676 850 758 890Paints (gallons) 176 215 265 272 303 331 415Nails (pounds) 528 389 143 201 328 375 283Barbed wire (pounds) 279 193 158 131 140 136 179Storage batteries (number) ... ... 12,561 11,343 13,856 15,675 20,861

Petroleum products (in thousandgallons 42,452 44,359 45,041 48,998 49,856 54,543 56,910

Gasoline 12,494 12,800 13,070 13,763 13,978 14,626 14,554Diesel 15,059 17,956 14,998 8,946 10,600 11,301 13,117Gas oil 986 1,395 894 704 714 642 320Fuel oil 10,298 8,063 11,728 21,739 20,852 24,183 25,466Kerosene 2,604 2,855 2,966 2,594 2,514 2,490 2,033Asphalt 1,011 1,290 1,385 1,252 1,198 1,302 1,420

Electricity (million kwh) 196 207 214 246 269 296 310

Natural gas (million cubic feet) 68 75 149 166 339 412 469

Crude oil (thousand barrels) 59 123 145 124 274 284 239

/a Fresh milk equivalent.

... Not available.


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Table 8.4: BARBADOS - TELEPHONE SERVICES, 1971-80

1973 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Telephones(aumbers) 32,810 36,358 38,863 39,761 41,535 44,049 47,419 50,384 54,071 59,002

Investment(5DS$ '000) 4,200 6,500 9,237 6,068 5,455 5,260 3,114 5,738 10,800 16,400

Source: Barbados Telephone Company; Barbados Statistical Service.

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Table 8.5: BARBADOS - WATER SERVICES, 1971-80

1973 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Water Consumed (millionliters) 30,660 32.610 32.287 31,999 31,914 36,806 34,845 38,741 38,764 40,107

Metered Services 6,792 7,473 7,427 8,084 9,338 11,546 7,742 12,815 7,751 8,240Domestic and Stand-post Wastage 23,868 25,137 24,860 23,915 22,576 25,260 27,103 26,926 31,013 31,867

Water Sales (BDS$'000) 1,216 1,285 1.308 1,349 1441 3,288 3,682 4,536 5,297 ..

Fixed Rates 564 575 564 593 588 2,193 2,361 2,533 2,989 ...Metered Supply 673 685 717 722 806 1,005 1,200 1,821 2,199Meter Rent 24 25 27 34 46 90 120 182 109 ,

Investment (BDS$'000) 2,037 1,976 1,970 1,937 2,422 3,543 3,055 3,298 4,000 4.200

Source: Water Works Department; Barbados Statistical Service.

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Table 8.6: BARBADOS-CONSTRUCTION DATAt 1971-79

(BDS$ million)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Imports of Building Materials

Lumber 6.0 5.4 7.7 8.8 6.6 10.2 11.5 12.4 14.6

Steel a/ 4.4 5.2 5.3 8.9 5.6 8.1 9.6 9.8 15.0

Aluminum a/ 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.7

Other 11.8 13.2 14.4 18.2 24.5 20.0 22.5 16.3 21.4

TOTAL 23.4 25.7 27.7 36.3 38.0 39.6 44.3 39.5 52.7

a/ Steel and aluminum only include the structural parts of these metals.

Lumber = SITC 243Steel - SITC 673, 678 and 691.1Aluminum - SITC 691.2Other = 631-32, 661-64 (excluding 691.1 and 691.2), 694

698 and 812

Source: Overseas Trade Yearbooks

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Table 8.7: BARBADOS - TOURIST ARRIVALS, 1970-80

Cruise-Ship Stay-over Ave.Length Hotel BedPeriod Arrivals Visitors of Stay(days) Occup.%

1970 79,635 156,417 5.3 45.91971 79,159 189,075 6.4 48.01972 100,086 210,349 6.4 48.31973 116,342 222,080 6.8 52.51974 119,524 230,718 9.1 55.61975 98,546 221,486 8.6 40.91976 95,901 224,314 8.5 44.71977 103,077 269,274 9.0 54.11978 125,988 316,883 9.1 59.31979 110,073 370,900 9.9 69.01980 156,461 369,915 9.9 68.9 p

p - provisional


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