Report #1 - Oil and Gas FINAL

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    Oil & Gas Overview

    Queen’s Capital

    Evan Burns, Senior Analyst

    Kelvin Li, Analyst

    Hans Shen, Junior Analyst

    Stephen Peng, Junior Analyst

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    Queen’s Capital

    Our mission here at Queen’s Capital is to increase the value of our porolio of securies by

    outperforming various indexes on a risk-adjusted basis; to help students develop praccal investment

    skills and test them in the markets; and to create superior access to career opportunies in the

    investment and nancial industry.

    Queen’s Capital achieves this by giving bi-weekly educaonal presentaons, reports on industry news,

    and by managing a porolio of equies with investor capital. Queen’s Capital currently manages

    an $80,000 diversied porolio of American and Canadian equies focusing on several investment

    strategies including fundamental, technical and value invesng.

    Queen’s Capital creates iniaves to bring in speakers from an array of rms to educate students

    about the Capital Markets and invesng. We regularly send out emails with opportunies that are nototherwise adversed on campus. These career-related acvies in coordinaon with one another give

    Investment Club members a denite advantage in the investment management career search.

    At Investment Club meengs, you will begin to see familiar faces – these are the people who share your

    interest and passion in invesng. We coordinate regular mixers to help in geng to know one another.

    Eventually, you will noce that many of these faces will become friendships, which we aspire to have

    you carry on with you past your me here at Queen’s University.

     Jehan Ghandhy Jehan GhandhyCo-Chair, Queen’s Capital

    Mark BalovnevMark Balovnev

    Co-Chair, Queen’s Capital

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    02 05 13Message from

    the execuve

    Recent

    industry

    trends

    Oil and gas

    fundamentals

    04Industry

    overview

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    Oil and gas companies are comprised of three segments: upstream, midstream and downstream. In reality,

    most large oil companies are known as "integrated" because their operaons combines all three stages of

    operaons, which take place aer the producon phase through to the point of sale. Large integrated compa-

    nies include Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, etc.

    Upstream IndustryCompanies in the upstream industry involves the exploraon and producon of crude oil and natural gas. Up-

    stream rms taking the rst steps to rst locate, test and drill for oil and gas. Later, once reserves are proven,

    upstream rms will extract any oil and gas from the reserve. The upstream is somemes known as the explo-

    raon and producon (E&P) sector. Because Alberta accounts for more than 80 per cent of Canada’s oil and

    gas producon, many upstream businesses are based in Alberta and most have their head oces in Calgary.

    Midstream Industry

    The midstream industry processes, stores, markets and transports commodies such as crude oil, natural

    gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs, mainly ethane, propane and butane) and sulphur. Midstream acvies are

    commonly included as part of downstream operaons for much of the oil and gas industry. The midstream

    and downstream acvies take place aer the inial producon phase and through to the point of sale. The

    midstream provides the vital link between the far-ung petroleum producing areas and the populaon cen -

    tres where most consumers are located. In Canada, transmission pipeline companies are a major part of the

    midstream petroleum industry. Most of these companies are also based in Calgary, although their acvies

    extend across the country, into the United States and somemes abroad.

    Downstream Industry

    The downstream industry takes place aer the producon phase, through to the point of sale. Downstream

    operaons can include rening crude oil and distribung the by-products down to the retail level. By-prod-

    ucts can include gasoline, natural gas liquids, diesel and a variety of other energy sources. Includes oil

    reneries, petrochemical plants, petroleum products distributors, retail outlets and natural gas distribuon

    companies. Although many downstream companies are headquartered in Calgary, the largest centres of

    acvity are near Sarnia, Ontario, and Edmonton, Alberta. The downstream industry touches every province

    and territory-wherever consumers are located-and provides thousands of products such as gasoline, diesel,

     jet fuel, heang oil, asphalt, lubricants, synthec rubber, plascs, ferlizers, anfreeze, pescides, pharma-

    ceucals, natural gas and propane.

    Integrated Industry

    A business enty that engages in the exploraon, producon, renement and distribuon of oil and gas.

    Given the high entry costs relang to many oil and gas industry operaons, many of the world's largest oil

    and gas companies, like Chevron Corporaon and Exxon Mobile, are integrated. Typically, integrated compa -

    nies divide their various operaons into categories: upstream, which includes all exploraon and producon

    endeavors, and downstream, which is conned to renement and markeng acvies. Because integrated oil

    and gas companies are involved in so many facets of the fossil fuel industry, oen their business boom lines

    can be counterintuive. For example, during mes of rising crude prices, an integrated oil and gas company

    may actually have lower prot margins than a non-integrated rival as a result of having greater downstream

    than upstream capability, or vice-versa.

    INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

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    The upstream stage of oil and gas industry involves the exploraon and producon (E&P)

    of resources. The upstream sector includes the searching for potenal underground or

    underwater crude oil and natural gas elds, drilling of exploratory wells, and subsequently

    drilling and operang the wells that recover and bring the crude oil and/or raw natural gas

    to the surface.

    Rising Cost and Project Delays Reduced Demand for EU Oil Shares

    The price of European stocks and stocks with exposure to Russia have underperformed the

    Stoxx600. This reects the increased amount of me spent by rms looking for potenal

    reserves, and thus increasing cost and cung into rm prots. The increased amount of

    delays was due to a growing share of developments in regions that were dicult to explore,

    such as in oshore deep water. However, shares in integrated oil companies outperformed

    E&P companies aer management raised dividends.

    U.K. Shale and Iran Are Important Year-End Themes for Europe Oil

      • IGAS, Total May Seek to Expand in U.K. Shale at Licensing Round

    U.K. is granng onshore share licensing, hoping to spur a widespread exploraon eort

    hoping to accelerate the iniaon of shale and gas producon in Britain to rival increased

    producons from the U.S. Companies interested include GDF, Suez, Total, IGas Energy, and

    Cuadrilla Resources.

    • Total May be First to Resume in Iran If Sancons Lied

    On the other hand, Iran has opened up itself to internaonal oil companies and

    developments in BP’s reorganizaon of U.S. shale operaons. E.U. sancons against Iran

    may be lied within months as talks on nuclear curbs on the country are under way. Total

    may be the rst to enter and resume its construcon of a 2 billion cubic feet per day

    Liqueed Natural Gas export facility. The facility will be fed from the world’s largest natural

    gas eld, South Pars, jointly owned by Iran and Qatar. Long term themes include Europe’squest to reduce reliance on Russian gas and rms cung investment budgets.

    Russia-Ukraine Row Shows Europe Needs to Diversify Energy Supply

      • EU Sancons on Russia Set to Transform Energy Supply

    Cing recent conicts in Eastern Europe, Eastern European countries are looking to diversify

    sources and to increase storage capacity. However, this has been delayed due to a lack of

    funds. EU looks to diversify energy supplies via new pipelines, increased liqueed natural

    gas imports, a higher share of renewables and greater indigenous producon via shale gas.

    UPSTREAMRECENT TRENDS

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    Education, Network, DevelopmentHowever, EU sancons on Russia may hurt EU companies’ prospects of exploing Russia’s resources. Hampering Russia’s oil and gas

    producon may also raise oil prices and force the EU to diversify its sources of supply at a higher cost.

    Bull Case: Sancons to Cap Russia E&P Access Boost Oil Price

      1. Barring Russian companies from access to the latest U.S. and EU E&P technology may reduce Russian oil exports and raise prices.

    Especially hurul to older oil elds in Russia.

      2. Forecasts reveal that addions to LNG fell by 34% due to many planned liquefacon plants never open because of their

    complexity and expense. Hopefully, the reduced supply with underpin the LNG price.

    Bear Case: High Execuon Risk Ensures LNG Supply Remains Tight

      1. Sancons against Russia risk restricng western companies’ access to the latest oil-eld service technologies and other E&P

    projects being pursued.

      2. The discovery of new European natural gas resources creates a bearish scenario for liqueed natural gas imports, while also

    represenng a threat to the commercial viability of planned and exisng EU re-gasicaon terminals.

    Libya Return, Strong Dollar Ease EU Oil Price Woes

    EU oil companies are cushioned from the recent oil price decline due to most of their revenues being in dollars while a large part of

    costs are billed in local currencies. In addion, the return of Libyan oil is helping the region’s oil majors in terms of more output and

    lower feedstock supply costs from reneries.

    OMV Producon Rebounds, Augurs Well for Libya Oil Producers

    OMV (an integrated internaonal O&G company) recorded a rebound in O&G output in 3rd Quarter partly due to resumed oil

    producon in Libya. OMV’S competors also beneted from Libya.

    Weakening Euro Eases 3Q Price Slump Scare for EU Oil Companies

    The euro’s 7.5% depreciaon vs the dollar during 3Q means Brent crude’s drop will have less of an impact on Total, Eni, Repsol, OMV

    and other oil companies reporng in the currency. While the Brent price fell more than 16% in dollar terms, the decline was only 9.4%

    in euro terms.

    Russian Balc, Black-Sea Crude Loading Extends Decline in 3Q 

    Loading schedules for two major Russian ports accelerated their decline in July and August, despite having started to drop two years

    ago.

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    MIDSTREAM

    Overview

    Midstream O&G describes one of the three major stagesof oil and gas industry operations. Midstream activities

    include the processing, storing, transporting and market-

    ing of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids.

    Midstream activities are commonly included as part of

    downstream operations for much of the oil and gas indus-

    try. The midstream and downstream activities take place

    after the initial production phase and through to the point

    of sale.

    The midstream industry processes, stores, markets and

    transports commodities such as crude oil, natural gas,

    natural gas liquids (NGLs, mainly ethane, propane andbutane) and sulphur. The midstream provides the vital link

    between often remote petroleum producing areas and the

    population centres where most consumers are located.

    In Canada, transmission pipeline companies are a major

    part of the midstream petroleum industry. Most of these

    companies are also based in Calgary, although their activ-

    ities extend across the country, into the United States and

    sometimes abroad.

    Recent High Profile Transactions

      1. Kinder Morgan Consolidation

    Kinder Morgan plans to combine its disparate partnerships

    into a single company that will enable the biggest pipeline

    operator in North America to continue growing.

    The deal, for $44 billion in cash and stock and the assump-

    tion of $27 billion in debt, will be the biggest energy

    industry merger since Exxon bought Mobil in 1999, accord-

    ing to Bloomberg. Houston-based Kinder Morgan operates

    the largest pipeline and storage network in the U.S., with

    80,000 miles of pipelines and 180 storage facilities.

    The deal underscores the massive demand for oil and

    gas infrastructure, especially in the northeastern U.S.

    Producers have tapped huge new oil and natural gas

    reserves in shale plays, yet they need pipelines that can

    transport surging oil and gas production from shale plays

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    to refineries. Kinder, which has in the past favored acquisitions over new construction, will have more

    flexibility with its simplified corporate structure.

    Kinder Morgan employs a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) Corporate structure, which allows the

    firm to pay taxes as it makes distributions to its unit holders, rather than paying taxes from its profit

    In order to be legally classified as an MLP, the partnership must derive ~90% of its cash flows from

    real estate, natural resources and commodities.

    Kinder Morgan Inc. Corporate Structure: El Paso Pipeline Partners, Kinder Morgan Management

    Kinder Morgan Energy Partners

      2. Western Sanctions on Russian Pipelines

    In response to hostilities occurring along the Russian-Ukrainian Border, economic sanctions imposed

    by the United States and its Allies have limited Russian oil pipelines ability to operate in the regions

    surrounding Russia’s western border. In response, Russian pipeline operators including, Gazprom and

    Transneft, have pushed to secure new business with their eastern neighbors, namely China.

    Reuters recently reported that Western sanct ions are expected to delay Transneft’s Zapolyarye-Purpe

    and Kuyumba-Taishet pipelines by two to three years. Further, Gazprom’s Nord Stream pipeline plan

    which was being developed to deliver Russian gas to Britain, has been scrapped due to worseningrelations between the two governments.

    These sanctions, combined with suppressed oil prices are pushing Russia towards its second recession

    in five years. A recent statement by the Bank of Russia in Moscow further hinted at this possibility

    Over the past three months, the Ruble has plunged 21% against a composite of its peers.

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    DOWNSTREAM

    The downstream poron of oil and gas involves rening petroleum crude oil and the processing and purifying of

    natural gas. The products derived from oil and natural gas must also be marketed and it is the downstream poron’s

    responsibility to do so. Examples of products generated from reneries include gasoline or petrol, kerosene, jet fuel,

    diesel oil, heang oil, fuel oils, lubricants, waxes, asphalt, natural gas, and liqueed petroleum. Hundreds of other

    petrochemicals may also be formed.

    Dividend and Buybacks Strengthen Support for Rener Equies

    There is a common presence of free cash ow amongst rener companies. This can be capitalized and used to in-

    crease or sustain dividend yields or potenally for purchasing share buybacks. This will strengthen support of rener

    equies in the market. The increased volality of the Brent Crude bench has caused shares to be aected. This isfurther enhanced by an increasing uncertainty of regulatory issues within the industry. Rener operaons have been

    given stability due to increasing export opportunies. Potenal markets in Europe and Lan America support this.

    1st Quarter Leaders in Rening Industry

    North American Mining and its markeng peer group is up 0.4% ytd. Reneries have been underperforming as

    energy peers have been up 15% ytd. The group’s total returns has been overall at as Brent to World Texas Inter-

    mediate dierenals have come closer. The two reneries that stood out since rst quarter earnings are PBF Energy

    and Northern Tier. The only companies gaining posive returns of 1.74% and 1.16% respecvely. All companies have

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    outperformed the S&P within the last 3 months.

    EV/EBITDA of Rener Equies Below Average Signaling Value

    EV/EBITDA is commonly the mulple used to value rener equies. BI U.S. rening peer group’s 2014 EV/EBITDA mulple is

    trading at 5.6x. This is below the average and is rebounding from a low of 4.9x aer crude dierenals began to improve. This

    is signaling value in reneries. The S&P Energy Sector Index is trading 6.5x above its historical trading range at a 16% premium

    to reneries. The potenal for future oil exports outside of the United States has caused excitement over rener equies to

    lower due to the potenal of less future domesc producon.

    Export Opportunies and Flexible Transportaon Opons are Posive Outlooks for Reneries

    Growth in exports for gasoline and dislled products is causing reneries to have a strengthened demand. This is further in-

    creased by the revival of domesc oil producon and its increased demand. Emerging construcon of rail allows companies to

    take advantage of greater exibility. This leads to a potenal decrease in transportaon costs that can inevitably increase the

    boom-line of North American rener equies.

    Crude Export Bans Could be lied

    In the United States it is illegal

    to export crude oil, but the ght

    shale oil being produced domes-

    cally does not match the capacity

    of the reneries. US reneries

    are beer suited to process

    heavy crude. This light oil is not

    connected by infrastructure to

    reneries that can process this

    crude. Therefore there is a strong

    consideraon to overturn the ban

    on exports to deal with this prob-lem. The increased internaonal

    trade of crude from liing this

    ban will allow reneries to have

    greater capacity allocate their

    acvity therefore resulng in more

    gasoline producon.

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    INTEGRATED

    Canadian Integrated Oil Companies Outperform U.S. Peers, S&P 500

    Canadian integrated oil companies have outperformed U.S. peers, along with the broader North American equity market year to date. Im-

    perial, Suncor, and Cenovus led the returns, propelled by improved Canadian crude oil prices. Chevron (posive 1%) and Exxon (negave 3%)

    have both underperformed the peer group and the broader S&P 500 (7.5%) in 2014.

    ONGC, Sinopec Shares Outperform Indexes on Deregulaon Opmism

    Opmism that India and China will deregulate natural gas prices has bolstered share prices of ONGC, Sinopec and PetroChina. The three com-

    panies have outperformed local benchmarks by at least 10% in the rst ve months of 2014. China may also ease investment rules regarding

    working capital requirements, freeing up more lucrave projects for oil companies.

    Rising Cost, Project Delays Reduced Appete for EU Oil Shares

    European stocks as well as companies with exposure to Russia underperformed the overall market this year, reecng increased delays in

    the development of oilrigs. Delays in development in these regions are the result of technical challenges and costs associated with oshore

    deep-water extracon. Shares in integrated oil companies performed beer than E&P companies because of these dicules along withmanagement meeng shareholder demands to raise dividend yield.

    Supply Growth, Cuts Form Integrated Oil Bull & Bear: Outlook

    The BI Outlook outlines major themes and trends shaping the global integrated oil industry. The Bull Case reects reduced supply, due to

    limited spare oil producon capacity in the Middle East. The Bear Case counters that fuel consumpon may be restrained in 2014, due toweaker-than-expected global economic growth. Furthermore, the connued resumpon of capacity in countries such as Iran and Iraq may

    depress crude oil prices.

    OPEC Outages Prop Up Oil Price, Mask Subdued Demand: Bear Case

    OPEC is faced with supply disrupons, totaling 2.6 million barrels a day, stemming from security challenges, regional hoslies, and geopo-

    lical instability. These disrupons have supported modest declines in oil prices and masked greater surpluses. If these hoslies subside,

    addional capacity may drive oil prices even lower and allow for OPEC to beer curtail its volume to drive prices to its own content.

    Integrated Oil & Gas Companies

    Integrated Oil & Gas Companies engage in all four funcons of oil & gas business operaons: extracon, producon, renement, and distribuon.

    Due to huge capital requirements necessary to sustain mulple business parts, and dicules involved in vercal chain management, integrated

    O&G companies happen to be the largest companies in the business. Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell plc, and BP plc are the world’s largest inte-

    grated O&G companies by barrels of producon per day (b/d) while Suncor Energy is Canada’s largest integrated O&G company.

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    2014 Q3, Q4 Brent and Crude Oil Dip

    West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, is trading down

    more than 19% this year while the European benchmark – Brent

    Crude – is down nearly 24%. This vercal decline amid an already

    volale market is an unexpected economic smulus for consum-

    ers, but the eect is far from posive for the integrated oil and gas

    companies. ConocoPhillips, the third largest integrated O&G company

    in the U.S., became the rst supermajor to announce plans of scaling

    back drilling.

    The price drop of oil can be aributed to the resurgence of the U.S.dollar, slower economic growth in emerging countries, and decreased

    global regulaon on oil produciton. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest

    producer of oil – a capacity greater than 11.6 million bbl/d of total

    petroleum, announced that it had no plans on slowing down produc-

    on to sustain price levels.

    Furthermore, the U.S. is imporng 35% less crude due to domesc

    hydrolic fracturing capabilies, a move which lowers global demand,

    and consequently, price.

    Pruning Assets and Capex Reducons may Increase Earnings

    In response to falling brent and crude oil prices, North American

    Integrated O&G companies such as Exxon Mobil have looked at re-

    ducons in capital expenditure to improve earnings and increase free

    cash ow. Integrated companies can increase protability by pruning

    assets that have shown weak performance relave to extracon

    costs; and instead, focus on maximizing renary margins as raw ma-

    terial costs are at a mul-year low. Companies such as Shell have also

    sold subsidiary units to smaller, more specialized peers and private

    equity funds to raise capital for dividends and share repurchases.

    Integrated Oil & Gas Companies

    Integrated Oil & Gas Companies engage in all four funcons of oil

    & gas business operaons: extracon, producon, renement, and

    distribuon. Due to huge capital requirements necessary to sustain

    mulple business parts, and dicules involved in vercal chain

    management, integrated O&G companies happen to be the largest

    companies in the business. Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell plc, and

    BP plc are the world’s largest integrated O&G companies by barrels

    of producon per day (b/d) while Suncor Energy is Canada’s largest

    integrated O&G company.

    2014 Q3, Q4 Brent and Crude Oil Dip

    West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, is trading down

    more than 19% this year while the European benchmark – Brent

    Crude – is down nearly 24%. This vercal decline amid an already

    volale market is an unexpected economic smulus for consum-

    ers, but the eect is far from posive for the integrated oil and gas

    companies. ConocoPhillips, the third largest integrated O&G company

    in the U.S., became the rst supermajor to announce plans of scaling

    back drilling. The price drop of oil can be aributed to the resurgence

    of the U.S. dollar, slower economic growth in emerging countries,

    and decreased global regulaon on oil produciton. Saudi Arabia, the

    world’s largest producer of oil – a capacity greater than 11.6 million

    bbl/d of total petroleum, announced that it had no plans on slowing

    down producon to sustain price levels. Furthermore, the U.S. is

    imporng 35% less crude due to domesc hydrolic fracturing capabili-

    es, a move which lowers global demand, and consequenally price.

    Pruning Assets and Capex Reducons May Increase Earnings

    In response to falling brent and crude oil prices, North American

    Integrated O&G companies such as Exxon Mobil have looked at re-

    ducons in capital expenditure to improve earnings and increase free

    cash ow. Integrated companies can increase protability by pruning

    assets that have shown weak performance relave to extracon

    costs; and instead, focus on maximizing renary margins as raw ma-

    terial costs are at a mul-year low. Companies such as Shell have also

    sold subsidiary units to smaller, more specialized peers and private

    equity funds to raise capital for dividends and share repurchases.

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    FUNDAMENTALSVALUATION METHODOLOGIES

    INDUSTRY SPECIFIC MULTIPLES

    EV/EBITDAXEBITDAX, not EBITDA: The “X” stands for Exploraon Expense, and we add back it to EBITDA when

    working with E&P companies because of the issue with successful eorts vs. full cost accounng

    above: we’re normalizing the metric.

    Enterprise Value/Daily Producon: EV/BOE/D

    Also referred to as price per owing barrel, this is a key metric used by many oil and gas analysts.

    This takes the enterprise value (market cap + debt – cash) and divides it by barrels of oil equivalent

    per day (BOE/D). All oil and gas companies report producon in BOE. If the mulple is high com-

    pared to the rm’s peers, it is trading at a premium, and if the mulple is low amongst its peers it is

    trading at a discount.

    Enterprise Value/Proven + Probable Reserves: EV/2P

    This easily calculated metric, which requires no esmates or assumpons, helps analysts understandhow well resources will support the company’s operaons. Generally the EV/2P rao should not be

    used in isolaon, as not all reserves are the same. However, this mulple can sll be an important

    metric to use to evaluate the valuaon of acquiring properes when lile is known about the cash

    ow. Reserves can be proven, probable or possible reserves.

    Price to Cash Flow: P/CF

    Oil and gas analysts will oen use the price-to-cash-ow per share mulple. A few advantages of the

    price–to-cash-ow mulple is that in contrast to earnings, book value and the P/E rao, cash ow is

    harder to manipulate. Earnings can always be tweaked by aggressive accounng, and book value is

    calculated using subjecve depreciaon methods. One disadvantage is that while easily calculated,

    it can be a lile misleading if there is a case of above average or below average nancial leverage.

    Enterprise Value/Debt-Adjusted Cash Flow: EV/DACF

    The capital structure of oil and gas rms can be dramacally dierent. Firms with higher levels of

    debt, or more leverage, will show a beer P/CF rao, which is why the EV/DACF mulple is pre-

    ferred.

    DCPU: Distributed Cash Per Unit

    Useful in measuring stakeholder value created

     

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    Assume that the company adds nothing to its reserves and that it produces 100% of its reserves

    unl it runs out of natural resources completely.

    1. Set Up Columns to Track Each Commodity, Revenue, Expenses, and Cash Flows.

    You want to track the beginning and ending reserves each year, the annual producon volume,

    and the average price for each commodity; typically you use the same low/mid/high price cases

    that you used in the company’s operang model.

    2. Assume Producon Decline Rates and Calculate Revenue Unl the Reserves Run Out

    Depending on the company’s previous history, you might assume a decline rate of 5-10% per year

     – potenally more or less depending on how mature it is.

    In each year, you assume that you produce either the producon volume of that year or the

    remaining reserves – whichever number is lower.

    Then, you’d mulply the producon volume mes the average price each year for all commodi-es to get the revenue by year.

    3. Project (Some) Expenses

    You focus on Producon and Development expenses here, both of which may be linked to the

    company’s producon in the rst place.

    You don’t assume anything for Exploraon since you’re pretending that the company nds noth-

    ing and dwindles to $0 in the future, and you leave out items like corporate overhead and SG&A

    because we’re valuing the company on an asset-level.

    4. Calculate and Discount Aer-Tax Cash Flows

    Subtract the expenses from the revenue each year and then mulply by (1 – Tax Rate) to calculate

    the aer-tax cash ows.

    Then, you add up and discount everything based on the standard 10% discount rate used in theOil & Gas industry (no WACC or Cost of Equity here).

    5. Add in Other Assets and Business Segments

    For example, if the company has undeveloped land or if it has midstream or downstream opera-

    ons, you might esmate the value of those based on an EBITDA mulple (or $ per acre for land)

    and add them in.

    You add all those up to arrive at Enterprise Value, then back into Equity Value the normal way,

    and calculate the company’s Implied Share Price by dividing by the diluted shares outstanding.

    So that’s a Net Asset Value model in a nutshell. It is widely used in oil, gas, mining, and other

    commodity-based sectors, and it oen produces more accurate results than the standard DCF

    analysis.

    Sum of the PartsFor cases where the company is highly diversied – think Exxon Mobil – you need to value its

    upstream, midstream, downstream, and other segments separately and add up the values at the

    end.

    So you might, for example, use tradional mulples like EBITDA for the midstream and down-

    stream segments, and then use Proved Reserves or Producon mulples for the upstream seg-

    ment and add them together to arrive at the nal value.

    Or you might use NAV for upstream and a DCF for other segments and add those up. ReportReferences

    Bloomberg,Investopedia,Wikipedia,IBISWorld,CapitalIQ,ThomsonOne,YahooFinance

    THE NAV MODEL

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    ANALYST TEAM

    www.queenscapital.ca

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