Replacing Military Personnel in Some Support Positions ......Scenarios for Civilians Replacing...
Transcript of Replacing Military Personnel in Some Support Positions ......Scenarios for Civilians Replacing...
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Congressional Budget Office
91st Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International
Portland, Oregon
July 3, 2016
Adebayo AdedejiPrincipal Analyst, National Security Division
Replacing Military Personnel in Some Support Positions With Federal Civilians
This presentation contains data from and includes other information published in CBO’s Replacing Military Personnel in Support Positions With Civilian Employees, www.cbo.gov/publication/51012.
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1CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
The Potential to Expand the Role of the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s)
Civilian Employees
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2CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Transferring to civilians certain jobs currently held by military personnel could reduce costs and increase DoD’s focus on warfighting.
Doing so would not lead DoD into uncharted waters because it has previous experience with such transfers.
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3CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
For this analysis, CBO used DoD’s Inherently Governmental and Commercial Activities (IGCA) database for 2012 to identify the number and types of positions that it might make sense to transfer.
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4CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
CBO also estimated possible cost savings for DoD and the federal government if DoD reduced military end strength by the number of such positions transferred.
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5CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Military Positions in the Services and Defensewide Organizations, by Function, 2012Percent
Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps DefensewideOrganizations
0
25
50
75
100
Commercialand Open toContractors
Commercialbut Not Opento Contractors
InherentlyGovernmental
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6CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Two main job categories exist in the IGCA database:
• Inherently governmental jobs, which only government employees (military or civilian) can perform; those account for 62 percent of all jobs in the database.
• Commercial jobs that use skills or provide services available in the private sector; those account for 38 percent of all jobs in the database.
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7CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Military and Civilian Positions in the DoD, by Function, 2012
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8CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
For many reasons, the services place military personnel in commercial jobs, which they implement in different ways. Those reasons include:
• Meeting readiness objectives
• Achieving workforce management goals
• Complying with laws, executive orders, treaties, or international agreements
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9CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Military Positions in Commercial Functions Not Open to Contractors, by Reason, 2012Thousands
Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Needed forWorkforceManagementObjectives
Needed forReadiness
Required by Law,Executive Order,
Treaty, orInternationalAgreement
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10CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Estimating the Number of Positions That Could be Transferred to Civilians
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11CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Accepting the existing classification of positions as inherently governmental or commercial, CBO’s analysis instead addresses how to achieve less a costly blend of military personnel and civilians.
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12CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
To answer that question, the analysis focuses on occupations in nondeployableunits in which the services use different mixes of military personnel and civilians.
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13CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
CBO estimates that, if all services use the same mix of the service branch with the smallest percentage of military personnel, about 80,000 active‐duty positions could be available for transfer.
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14CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
CBO considered three options for transferring 80,000 positions to civilian employees:
• One civilian replaces one service member (1:1 ratio)
• Four civilians replace every five service members (1:1.25 ratio)
• Two civilians replace every three service members (1:1.5 ratio)
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15CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Scenarios for Civilians Replacing 80,000 Military Personnel
ExistingCommercial PositionsTransferable to Civilians
Replacement Ratio (Civilian:Military)Service 1:1 1:1.25 1:1.5Army 14.0 14.0 11.2 9.3 Navy 36.0 36.0 28.8 24.0 Air Force 24.0 24.0 19.2 16.0 Marine Corps 6.0 6.0 4.8 4.0
Total 80.0 80.0 64.0 53.3
Thousands of Positions
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16CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Estimating the Cost Savings From Transferring the Positions to Civilians
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17CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
The cost analysis compares all current and future costs of hiring a service member to those of hiring a civilian.
Because some of those costs are borne by agencies other than DoD, CBO calculates the cost to the federal government, including revenue effects.
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18CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
The ratio at which civilians replace military personnel is a key factor determining total cost savings.
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19CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Average Annualized Cost, by Department, of Employing a Service Member and a Federal Civilian in Comparable Occupations
2014 Dollars
Department and Cost Category Military CivilianMilitary–Civilian
DifferenceDepartment of Defense 103,400 106,100 ‐2,700Department of Veterans Affairs 34,000 n.a. 34,000Department of the Treasury 5,000 n.a. 5,000Office of Personnel Management n.a. 4,000 ‐4,000Department of Education 300 * 300
Total Federal Government Spending 142,700 110,100 32,600
Tax Revenues From Basic Pay and Special, Incentive, and Other Pay ‐7,500 ‐14,100 6,600
Net Cost to the Federal Government 135,200 96,000 39,200
n.a. = not applicable; * = less than $100.
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20CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Estimated Long‐Run Annualized Savings From Transferring80,000 Military Support Positions to Civilians
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21CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Other Considerations
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22CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Civilians have advantages beyond lower costs, such as greater stability or familiarity with technological advances for which military personnel would require additional training.
However, there are disadvantages to shedding military positions.
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23CONGRESS IONAL BUDGET OFFICE
Achieving the cost savings depends on cutting military end strength—an action that would reduce DoD’s ability to surge troops in a protracted conflict.
Also, reducing commercial positions could have adverse effects on the services’ workforce management goals or unique needs.