Renovation Tracks for Europe up to 2050

Renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050 Ecofys webinar

Thomas Boermans 05/02/2014

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Why renovation is so important

> Major saving potentials (CO2, energy) > Reduce dependencies from (fossil) energy sources and avoid fuel poverty > Possibility to improve comfort and quality of life > Job creation, green growth, technology development > Basically only one chance to do it right until 2050 (renovation cycles of 30-

40 years)

05/02/2014 Thomas Boermans 2

2010 2050 2020 2030 2040

Renovation cycle

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Why renovation is so difficult

> Obstacles for the building owner:

- Significant upfront investment

- Changing the look of the building

- Will the quality be all right?

- Investor-user conflict

> Challenges at country/market level:

- Many stakeholders with different views and positions: policy level,

owners/investors, tenants, building companies, producers, architects,

engineers, associations etc.


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Long term target for the building sector at EU level


> In its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive

low carbon economy in 2050”, the European

Commission established a long-term

objective of decreasing the CO2-emission

levels for the building sector by 88%-91% in

2050 (compared to 1990 levels).

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Policies at EU level – the EPBD


> Requirements regarding ambition levels

within the Energy Performance of

Buildings Directive:

– cost optimal performance

requirements

(new buildings and renovation)

– Nearly zero-energy buildings

(all new buildings from 2021 on)

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EPBD - timeline new buildings


Cost optimal requirements nearly zero-energy ???

2010 2021 20XX

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EPBD - timeline retrofit


Cost optimal requirements nearly zero-energy? ???

2010 20XX 20YY

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Policies at EU level – Energy Efficiency Directive


> Requirements related to renovation

within the Energy Efficiency

Directive:

– MSs to develop renovation

roadmaps

– Renovation of central

government buildings (3% p.a.)

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Introduction to study (Ecofys for EURIMA, 2013)


The goal of reducing carbon emissions by 90% is clear but how to get there? Which measures? How to combine? How fast do we need to implement? What would be the outcomes of different options in terms of energy and CO2 savings, financial impacts and employment effects?

Within the study, three renovation scenarios were developed, characterized by two important parameters: • speed of renovation (= renovation rate) and • the ambition level regarding energy efficiency

improvement and use of renewable energy

2050 horizon selected to reveal long term consequences of choices to be made.

http://www.eurima.org/resource-centre http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/

http://www.eurima.org/resource-centre

http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/

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The methodology BEAM² - Ecofys` bottom up model for the building sector


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The assessed scenarios

> Track 1: Shallow renovation, low contribution from renewable energy Fast renovation (renovation rate 3%) & average energy efficiency ambition level (~ 32 % reduction in energy use for space heating by 2050 compared to 2010), taking into account market failures (e.g. failure to treat the building envelope as a whole), low use of renewable energy.

> Track 2: Shallow renovation, and high use of renewable energy

Renovation rate 2.3% & average energy efficiency ambition level, taking into account market failures (~ 58 % reduction in energy use for space heating); limited focus on energy efficiency of the building envelope; advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and heat recovery ventilation).

> Track 3: Deep renovation and high use of renewable energy

Renovation rate 2.3%, high level of energy efficiency improvement (~80% reduction in energy use for space heating) high focus on energy efficiency of the building envelope; advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and heat recovery ventilation).


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Model inputs – building stock data


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Model inputs – important parameters


Differentiated by region (for details, see study report): > CO2-emission factors > Investment costs > Energy prices

Energy prices: > The energy prices for gas and electricity are derived from Eurostat data for

household consumption. The prices for oil, pellets, heat pump electricity, district heat and biomass are related to these Eurostat prices.

> The energy price rate increases (in real terms, excluding inflation) are chosen at 2.0% for electricity and 2.8% for all other fuels. In the period 2032-2050 (after 30 years of applying such real price increase), constant prices are assumed, which we believe puts estimates on energy costs savings on the save side.

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Results - CO2-emissions (space heating and domestic hot water)


> Shallow renovation: missing target > High efficiency focus + renewable energy and shallow renovation + RE: achieving target

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Results – final energy (space heating, without new buildings)


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Results – total costs (investment costs + energy costs)


>Shallow renovation: missing target, financially not significantly more attractive >High efficiency focus + RE: achieving target at similar total costs >shallow renovation + RE: slightly higher costs

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Overview of results

Scenario Retrofit rate

C02-Emissions for space heating and domestic hot water EU27 by 2050

Final Energy use for space heating EU27 by 2050 (without new buildings)

Related reduction in final energy use by 2050 compared to 2010

Total Costs (investment costs and energy costs for space heating and domestic hot water, discounted costs for period 2012-2050)

[%] [Mt] [TWh] [%] [trillion EURO]

Track 1 3.0% 498 1,987 32% 8.2

Track 2 2.3% 103 1,228 58% 8.8

Track 3 2.3% 93 613 80% 8.5


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Conclusions I

> Can the 88%-91% CO2-emission savings target be achieved until 2050?

> Yes, track 2 and 3 arrive at approximately a 90% emissions savings, while Scenario 1 clearly misses this target.


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Conclusions II

> Would 80% final energy savings be a suitable target? > Yes, this is the right ambition level, with some considerations. > A substantial reduction of final energy consumption supports the

achievement of the CO2 savings target. The 80% final energy savings target (suggested by Parliament’s report on the EED) seems suitable, if it relates to energy used for space heating. The deep renovation track delivers such savings. When looking at the sum of space heating and domestic hot water, the deep renovation track delivers -75% savings.


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Conclusions III

> Can “deep renovation” be a suitable way to achieve EU targets? > Yes. The combination of extensive energy efficiency measures and high use of

renewable energy seems preferable to achieve, CO2 targets and energy savings. > Track 1 (shallow renovation) misses the environmental target (CO2-emission)

and falls short on energy savings while not providing substantial economic advantage compared to the deep renovation track.

> Track 2 (Shallow renovation and high use of renewable energy) meets the CO2-target, but shows significant less energy savings while resulting in slightly higher costs compared to the deep renovation track.

> The deep renovation track also offers the largest job creation potential of the three scenarios.


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Outlook – how to achieve deep renovation of the stock?

Possible parts of a solution: > At building level

– improve energy performance of the building whenever maintenance/repair is due anyway

– measures need to be „2050 proof“, especially on the building envelope (> 30 years lifetime)

– avoid lock-in-effects if e.g. lifetimes of components cause the renovation action to stretch

> Government – set requirements

(esp. component level) – support via capacity building,

information, financing, incentives – check compliance


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Thank you for your attention!

Ecofys Germany GmbH Thomas Boermans Unit Manager Buildings Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany T: +49 (0)221 27070-151 E: [email protected] I: www.ecofys.com


Renovation Tracks for Europe up to 2050

Technology

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