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May 2017
Renewables Influence on the Generation
Mix and Gas Demand in Western
Australia
Authors: A. Niklaus, L. Dowling. Acknowledgements: C. Wilson, J. Tan, K. Farnsworth, P. Malhi, R. Petchey.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This insights paper explores how increased renewable generation affects the generation mix and, in turn, domestic gas
demand in Western Australia (WA). The impact of new renewable generation on gas generation is the key focus of this
paper because gas is affected to a greater extent by new low marginal cost generation such as wind and solar than the
other dominant form of thermal generation, coal. Gas generation generally has a higher short run marginal cost than
coal, so is not dispatched as readily when lower-cost options are available.
The paper explores changes to the generation mix and gas demand through two approaches, Firstly, by examining the
broad range of variables that affect the market share of the various forms of generation in the South West
Interconnected System (SWIS), since this ultimately affects gas demand. Secondly, a top-down analysis is presented.
This analysis quantifies how increased renewable generation in the SWIS has influenced gas demand historically by
estimating the average change to gas generation (in MWh) as additional renewable generation capacity (in MW) has
been installed. This average change is used to evaluate the effect on gas generation of future levels of renewable
generation up to a hypothetical SWIS-specific Large Scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) of 23.5%1. From this,
efficiencies are applied to the estimated reduction in gas-fired generation to calculate an estimated reduction in gas
demand.
The effect of coal generation on gas generation is considered in parallel, as the commissioning of the Bluewaters
power station and the recommissioning of Muja AB have also influenced the generation mix over the analysis period.
However, as no new coal-fired power stations are anticipated in the SWIS, potential future effects of coal generation on
gas generation are not evaluated.
The paper is split into several sections. The intent of these sections and key points are detailed in Table 1:
Table 1: Insights Paper intent and key messages
Section Title Section Intent Key Points
The Current
Status of
Generation
in the SWIS
Provides a high level overview of the
current generation mix in the SWIS and the
Wholesale Energy Market (WEM). This is
intended to provide readers with an
understanding of how generation is
dispatched in the SWIS and hence how
changes to the generation mix influence
which facilities are dispatched.
The WEM normally governs how each facility is
dispatched, so the generation mix in the SWIS is
primarily based on economic dispatch (lowest-cost
generators are dispatched first). However, on
occasion higher-cost facilities may be dispatched
ahead of lower-cost ones for system security reasons.
Analysis
Assumptions
Identifies the variables that influence the
analysis in this paper and therefore gas-
fired generation in the SWIS. This is
intended to give the reader a high-level
understanding of how the SWIS and the
WEM interact.
In addition, this section identifies the
assumptions related to these variables that
are used in the analysis section.
Because the WEM and the SWIS are complex and
interrelated systems, there are many factors that
influence any analysis of how changes to the
generation mix, such as more renewables, affect gas
generation and therefore gas demand. These include
renewable generation location, geographical
distribution, facility operating costs and technical
capabilities, potential changes to the WEM,
government policy, and emerging technologies such
as battery storage.
This makes building a bottom-up model to forecast
how the changing generation mix affects gas
generation challenging, as a number of assumptions
would need to be made. Instead, a top-down analysis
based on historical effects has been completed.
1 The SWIS-specific LRET is defined as 23.5% of total SWIS generation (MWh) sourced from renewables, minus specific industry exemptions for emissions intensive
trade exposed industries connected to the SWIS
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Section Title Section Intent Key Points
Analysis of
the Effect of
the LRET on
Gas Demand
in the SWIS
Outlines the methodology and results of
the three areas of analysis that cover this
paper, the calculation of a hypothetical
SWIS-specific LRET, analysis of the
historical effect of new coal and renewable
generation facilities on gas generation, and
extrapolation of this historical effect to
estimate the future effect of new
renewables on gas generation. The
hypothetical SWIS-specific LRET is used
as an upper limit to this extrapolation.
To achieve the 2020 LRET target of 23.5%
renewables generation within the SWIS,
approximately 3,770 GWh p.a. of generation from
renewable sources is required. Based on the average
2016 capacity factor of renewables in the SWIS
(36.5%), this would require an additional 703 MW of
renewable nameplate capacity. However, since this is
a federal target, the SWIS-specific value is an
estimate only. There is no obligation for WA to install
any set level of renewable generation within any
timeframe. However, it is expected that the federal
LRET will continue to drive investment in renewables
in WA.
The analysis of historical data focused on the change
to the generation mix between 2011 and 2013 as this
period saw significant growth in renewable capacity in
the SWIS. This analysis indicated that for every 1 MW
of new renewable nameplate capacity installed, a
reduction of 2.76 GWh p.a. of gas generation can be
expected. Higher demand growth over the analysis
period may have reduced the apparent effect of
renewables on gas generation to some extent,
leading to a lower net effect seen in the analysis. The
commissioning of Bluewaters and Muja AB over the
analysis period may have had the opposite effect,
increasing the net effect indicated by the analysis.
However, these effects have not been removed from
the values presented in this paper as it is not
practicable to do so.
Using the 2.76 GWh p.a. reduction, the change in gas
generation and therefore gas demand can be
estimated for various levels of renewable penetration.
For the hypothetical SWIS-specific LRET this equates
to a reduction in gas generation of 2,768.5 GWh p.a.,
equivalent to a reduction in gas demand of between
62.1 and 71.9 TJ per day2 using gas generation
efficiencies published in the 2016 WA GSOO.
Extrapolation past the hypothetical SWIS-specific
LRET was not attempted due to the greater
uncertainty around analysis assumptions at higher
levels of renewable generation.
2 Gas demand reductions are calculated using gas generation efficiencies published in the GSOO for baseload and mid-merit gas generation facilities.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
1. INTRODUCTION
This insights paper investigates how gas demand may be affected by changes to the generation mix in the South West
Interconnected System (SWIS). Particular attention is paid to the effect of renewable generation on gas demand as this
is anticipated to be a growing source of generation in the future.
1.1 Purpose
Federal government policy and a continuing reduction in solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation capital costs are
leading to increased renewable generation in the SWIS. This influences how traditional thermal generators are
dispatched and will therefore influence the volume of domestic gas required for generation in the SWIS. Generation
within the SWIS makes up approximately one-fifth of total gas demand in WA, so increased renewable generation may
have a measurable effect on gas demand, with this effect being dependant on a number of variables.
This paper aims to provide a better understanding of these variables and quantify how increasing renewable
generation in the SWIS could affect gas demand in WA.
1.2 Scope
This paper focuses on the effect that increasing renewable generation has on the generation mix in the SWIS and, in
turn, how this may influence gas demand up to a hypothetical SWIS Large Scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET).
This is subject to many variables, and to provide an understanding of how these may influence the generation mix,
these are also discussed as part of this paper.
An analysis of how new renewable generation capacity has influenced the generation mix historically is presented. This
analysis is then extrapolated to investigate how an increased level of large scale renewable generation (up to the LRET
of 23.5%) may affect the generation mix and hence gas demand from generators in the SWIS.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
2. CURRENT STATUS OF GENERATION IN THE SWIS
2.1 The SWIS, WEM, Dispatch and Current Generation Mix
The Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) operates in the South Western Interconnected System (SWIS), which covers
the majority of the Western Australian population, is made up of around 7,400 km of transmission lines, and services an
area of over 260,000 square km. The SWIS is characterised by a strong summer peak driven primarily by weather. Unlike
the East Coast, the SWIS is isolated from other networks and is therefore required to be self-sufficient.
The SWIS has 5.7 GW of installed nameplate capacity. Figure 1 shows the fuel mix used for generation in the SWIS in
2016.
Figure 1: Percentage generation by fuel type
2.1.1 The Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM)
The WEM is comprised of:
A real-time dispatch market.
A gross pool market where Market Generators must make all their certified capacity available to the market.
Net settlement, which takes into consideration the net contract positions between Market Participants, and only
settles for amounts that are not covered by Bilateral Contracts or day-ahead trades in the Short Term Energy
Market.
Load Following Ancillary Services (LFAS) which account for the difference between scheduled energy, actual
load, and intermittent generation.
Other Ancillary Services, such as System Restart and Spinning Reserve.
8%
41%50%
1%
Percentage Generation by Fuel Type in 2016
wind gas coal other
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Generation facilities in the WEM are generally dispatched based on economic merit, where facilities that bid into the
market at the lowest price are given priority over higher bidders. However, on occasion higher-cost facilities may be
dispatched ahead of lower-cost ones for system security reasons.
2.1.2 The Reserve Capacity Mechanism
In addition to the WEM, a Reserve Capacity Mechanism (RCM) is operated in the SWIS that ensures sufficient capacity
is available during periods of peak demand to meet reliability targets set for the SWIS. Capacity can be provided by
traditional scheduled generators, non-scheduled generators such as wind and solar, and Demand Side Programs (DSPs)
that can curtail load when required.
The RCM is intended to support the recovery of long-term capital costs associated with installing new capacity. As a
result, maximum price caps in the WEM are much lower than in the NEM ($240/MWh or $413/MWh3 in the WEM vs.
$14,000/MWh in the NEM), since peaking generators can recover capital costs through the RCM rather than through
high peak pricing.
For a detailed overview of the WEM and the RCM refer to the Wholesale Electricity Market Design Summary4.
3 $240 price cap for non-liquid fuelled FY2016/17 (updated yearly), $413 for liquid-fuelled May 2017 (updated monthly). 4 Available from: https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/PDF/wem-design-summary-v1-4-24-october-2012.pdf
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
3. ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS
This section identifies the variables that influence the generation mix in the SWIS and, therefore, gas-fired generation
and gas demand. A commentary around how each variable affects the generation mix is provided. This is intended to
give the reader a high-level understanding of how changes to the variables may affect the generation mix. In addition,
this section identifies the assumptions related to these variables that are used in the analysis section.
3.1 Renewable Generation Mix Different mixes of large scale PV, wind, biomass, landfill gas, and rooftop PV will affect the overall generation mix
differently as their times corresponding to maximum output will differ. A high concentration of one type of renewable
generation relative to others can result in large fluctuations of renewable generation output. Higher levels of LFAS
(normally provided by gas-fired facilities) and dispatch of gas-fired facilities capable of responding to these fluctuations
outside of economic merit order may be required at times to manage this.
The analysis presented in Section 4.3 is an extrapolation of existing data. As such, the large scale renewable
generation mix5 assumed is as per the existing mix in the SWIS. The system load considered in this analysis is drawn
from projections given in the base case of the 2015 deferred WEM ESOO6. This considers rooftop PV growth in terms
of both total sent out generation required and peak load.
3.2 Energy Storage Both large and small scale storage can have positive effects on system security by proving a buffer to steep ramp rates
that may be associated with high levels of renewable generation, and smooth out system peaks. This can reduce the
need for gas-fired peaking and load following generation.
At present the WEM Rules are not designed to consider storage for ancillary services. Due to this and the lack of
certainty associated with any uptake of utility scale storage, its potential effects on gas-fired generation are not
considered in this paper’s analysis.
3.3 Wind Generation Location
The location of wind generation is a significant factor in how much of a contribution it makes to meeting peak demand.
Wind farms near the coast generally have a higher capacity factor during the afternoon when demand is high, whereas
wind farms located inland have a higher capacity factor overnight when demand is low.
This influences the generation mix as where wind contributes significantly to peak demand, it can offset generation
from gas-fired peaking plants. Conversely, where wind’s output is highest during times of low demand, such as
overnight, gas-fired and coal-fired baseload generation may be forced to either curtail generation or accept negative
prices in the energy market to avoid shutting down. Additional fast response gas facilities may need to be dispatched
as a result to manage variability in generation output during these times.
The analysis in Section 4.3 assumes that the influence that geographic location of wind generation has on the
generation mix remains constant.
3.4 Geographical Spread
The spread of wind and solar generation across a network has an effect on how steeply total renewable generation
output ramps up and down. A large concentration of generation in one area will be influenced by changes in weather
conditions at the same time, resulting in steep ramps in generation. By contrast, a spread-out collection of generation
resources will maintain a smoother generation output.
Consequently, the relative geographical spread of renewable generators can have an effect on the amount of LFAS
(typically provided by gas-fired generators) that needs to be maintained to smooth out this varying output.
5 For the purposes of this report, renewable generation mix is defined as the ratio of the various forms of renewable generation relative to each other. 6 The WEM ESOO is published yearly and provides forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand. Refer to: https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Wholesale-
Electricity-Market-WEM/Planning-and-forecasting/WEM-Electricity-Statement-of-Opportunities
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
The analysis in this paper assumes that the influence that geographic spread of renewable generation has on the
generation mix remains constant.
3.5 Electricity Market Review Outcomes Reforms to the energy and ancillary service markets are being considered as part of the WA government’s Electricity
Market Review. In July 2016, the Public Utilities Office (PUO) released a final report7 on the high-level design of the
reforms.
The outcomes of these reforms may influence the future generation mix in the SWIS. However, because the reforms
are ongoing they have not been considered in the analysis.
3.6 Government Policy
Assumption
Of the federal mechanisms, targets and schemes outlined in this section, the LRET is specifically considered in the
analysis presented in this paper. The reason for focusing on the LRET is because while other schemes support lower
emitting generation, efficiency improvements, and small scale behind-the-meter generation, the LRET is set specifically
to achieve a greater level of renewables in the electricity sector.
Discussion
The Federal Government has committed to a 26% to 28% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions by
2030 relative to 2005 levels. A number of schemes and mechanisms have been put in place to support this, most
notably the LRET and the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES). The LRET is an Australian-wide target
aiming to achieve 33,000 GWh of sent out generation from renewable sources by 2020 (expected to be 23.5% of total
2020 demand). The effect of the LRET in the SWIS is the focus of the analysis in this report and is discussed in detail
in Section 4.1.
The SRES provides an incentive to consumers to install small generation units (classified as no more than 100 kW of
solar PV, 10 kW of wind or 6.4 kW of hydro generation)8. This scheme has supported the significant growth in rooftop
PV in the SWIS and is expected to continue to do so.
In 2014 an Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) was implemented with an associated Safeguard Mechanism in 2016.9
This fund pays businesses to reduce their carbon emissions in a variety of ways including energy efficiency
improvements in transport and electricity use, so is expected to play a part in reducing electricity demand. However, as
of November 2016, energy efficiency was only a small percentage (2.5%) of the fund’s contracted emissions, with
initiatives to minimise vegetation clearing and planting making up the bulk of the fund10.
The Safeguard Mechanism11 associated with the ERF is a cap and trade mechanism that sets an emissions baseline
for large emitters (over 100,000 t CO2-e), based on their highest level of reported emissions between 2009/10 and
2013/14 for existing facilities. For new facilities, emissions will be capped according to best practice guidelines.
The mechanism also applies to electricity networks (the SWIS and NWIS (North West Interconnected System) in WA),
but unlike other industries the cap covers the sector as a whole rather individual facilities. The cap is set at 198 (Mt
CO2-e). If this is exceeded, caps will be introduced for individual facilities, who would then be required to purchase
carbon credits to make up for any emissions in excess of their baseline values. Emissions for the electricity sector for
the latest reporting period (2015-16) were 178 MT CO2-e. This represents a small increase of 0.9% on the previous
reporting period.12
7 Available at: http://www.finance.wa.gov.au/cms/Public_Utilities_Office/Electricity_Market_Review/Wholesale_Electricity_Market_Improvements.aspx#emop. 8 Refer to the Clean Energy Regulator website for further information: http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/About-the-Renewable-Energy-Target/How-the-
scheme-works/Small-scale-Renewable-Energy-Scheme 9 https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund 10 https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/publications/what-it-means-for-you 11 For more information refer to: http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/about/safeguard-mechanism 12 The 0.9 % increase was predominantly due to an increase in coal-fired generation. For further information refer to the Clean Energy Regulator website:
http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/NGER/National%20greenhouse%20and%20energy%20reporting%20data/Data-highlights/2015-16-published-data-highlights
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
To finance new renewable generation and support the development of new technology, there are several other
initiatives in place, including the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), the Australian Renewable Energy Agency
(ARENA), and the Clean Energy Innovation Fund (CEIF).
3.7 The Removal of Synergy Capacity On 5 May 2017, Synergy announced the retirement of some generation capacity by 1 October 2018.The retirements
affect the following facilities:
Muja AB units 1 to 4 (240MW)
Mungarra gas turbine units 1, 2 and 3 (113MW)
West Kalgoorlie gas turbine units 2 and 3 (62MW)
Kwinana gas turbine unit 1 (21MW)
Due to the recent timing of this announcement, the removal of Synergy capacity has not been considered in this
paper’s analysis.
3.8 Operating Costs and Performance Specifications of Existing Thermal Generators
As the analysis in this paper is based on an extrapolation of existing data, generator performance, operating costs and
how these influence Market Generators’ participation in the WEM are assumed to be constant. The influence of the
cost of fuel is assumed to be constant across the analysis horizon. Fuel costs are discussed further in Section 4.2.1.
Start-up costs are higher for baseload facilities, such as coal-fired and combined cycle gas turbines, than for open
cycle gas turbines. The time required to synchronise with the network is also generally greater. Because of this, at
times of low demand and high renewable generation, baseload gas and coal facilities may be forced to either shut
down or accept negative prices to ensure they remain online. Where gas-fired baseload facilities choose to shut down
or operate at a reduced output, this will influence gas demand as baseload gas generation consumes a larger
proportion of gas than peaking or mid-merit generation.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
4. ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF THE LRET ON GAS
DEMAND IN THE SWIS
4.1 The Large Scale Renewable Energy Target The LRET was introduced in 2001 and revised in 2015 to 33,000 GWh per annum of renewable generation by 2020,
anticipated to be 23.5% of total sent out electricity generation in 2020.
The LRET is funded by requiring Liable Entities13 to surrender large scale generation certificates (LGC) to the Clean
Energy Regulator (CER). LGCs are purchased from approved renewable generators, with one MWh of renewable
generation equal to one LGC.
Liable Entities pass the cost of LCGs on to electricity consumers. Emissions Intensive Trade Exposed (EITE) industries
are provided with exemption certificates that can be traded with liable entities to offset the additional cost imposed by
the LRET scheme.
4.1.1 Required Renewable Generation to Achieve the LRET in the SWIS
To provide an understanding of the amount of renewable generation required in the SWIS to meet the 2020 federal
LRET, an estimate of the SWIS contribution (the hypothetical SWIS-specific LRET) has been calculated.
Methodology
To calculate the hypothetical SWIS LRET, an estimate of generation in 2020 and expected LRET Exemption
Certificates awarded to industries connected to the SWIS were calculated.
Because the LRET is a national scheme, these exemptions are estimates only. As such the hypothetical SWIS LRET is
an approximation. The process for obtaining this (in terms of GWh) is detailed below. It should be noted that there is no
obligation to meet this target and the incoming WA Labour Government has ruled out a state based LRET14. However,
it does provide a useful baseline to understand WA’s contribution to the federal target.
The methodology for estimating the hypothetical SWIS-specific LRET is as follows:
1. The amount of sent out generation in 2020 was estimated using known generation data between 1 October
2015 and 1 October 2016 factored up by a growth rate of 0.9% per annum15 to 2020.
2. This was multiplied by the LRET percentage (23.5%) to give a SWIS LRET without taking exemptions into
account.
3. The MWh value of exemption certificates issued to industries in the SWIS was estimated using industry and
company specific data provided on the Clean Energy Regulator’s website16 17.
4. Weightings were applied to the exemptions based on an estimate of the percentage of industry share in the
SWIS relative to Australia18.
5. Exemptions were then summed and as exemption certificates are based on 2016 data, the growth rate of 0.9%
p.a. was applied to achieve a 2020 estimate.
6. The WA specific exemption data calculated in steps 3 through 5 was subtracted from the value calculated in
step 2 to give the hypothetical SWIS LRET.
13 Liable Entities are defined as the first receivers of electricity in a network with an install capacity of over 100MW 14 https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/wa-labor-walks-away-from-national-green-energy-target-ng-b88393984z 15 As forecast in the 2015 Deferred WEM ESOO 16http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Pages/Scheme%20participants%20and%20industry/Industry%20assistance/Industry%20assistance%20published%20information/2015-exemptions-for-emissions-intensive-trade-exposed-activities.aspx 17 http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Scheme-participants-and-industry/Industry-assistance/Industry-assistance-published-information/Emissions-intensive-trade-exposed-activity-summaries 18 Where production data was available, this weighting was based on the ratio of production relative to the SWIS, where this was not available a weighting of 7.4% was
applied (the percentage of SWIS electricity generation relative to Australia)
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Results and Discussion
This analysis indicates that the total renewable sent out generation in the SWIS required to meet the 2020 LRET is
3,773 GWh. For comparison, sent out renewable generation in the SWIS for the 2015-16 capacity year was 1,587
GWh. 3,773 GWh equates to a total nameplate capacity of approximately 1.2 GW, or 0.7 GW more large scale
renewable capacity than what is currently installed, assuming a capacity factor of 35.5%19.
4.2 Analysis of the Historical Effect of New Renewable Generation Facilities
This section provides an analysis of how new renewable capacity has influenced gas-fired generation in the SWIS
historically. The results of this analysis are used in Section 4.3 as the basis for estimating the effect of new renewable
capacity in the future.
4.2.1 Methodology
To complete this analysis, a table of renewable facility nameplate capacities and commissioning dates was developed;
refer to Appendix A. This table was distilled down into four time periods, as shown in Table 2, to provide an insight into
the period where the majority of current renewable capacity was installed in the SWIS, between March 2011 and
October 2013. In that period an additional 299 MW of renewable capacity was installed.
Table 2: Renewable installation by time period
In the three years directly before and after this (start 2008 – end 2010, and start 2014 – end 2016) there was very little
new renewable capacity installed. This allowed the historical values for gas generation before and after this large
addition of renewable capacity to be compared to gauge the effect this additional renewable capacity had on gas-fired
generation.
To make the comparison, average monthly gas generation values for the periods looking back three years (2008
through to 2010) and looking forward three years (2014 through to 2016) were calculated. Averages across the three
year periods were used to minimise the influence of year-on-year weather fluctuations on the analysis. Table 3 displays
these averages and gives an indication of the change in gas generation between the two periods.
211 MW of renewable capacity was installed prior to 2008. However, analysis of its effect was not included because of
limited data availability and a different dispatch methodology post market start (the WEM commenced operation in
2006).
Table 3: Three-Yearly Averaged Monthly Gas Generation
Figure 2 displays yearly averaged monthly generation to give an indication of the change in gas and renewable (solar,
wind and biomass) generation over the analysis period. A clear decrease at an increasing rate can be observed in gas
generation over the period 2010-13 and, conversely, a sharp increase in renewable generation.
19 35.5% is the average capacity factor for all large scale renewables in the SWIS in 2016.
Facility Installation Time Period New Renewable Nameplate Capacity Installed (MW)
2003 – 2007 Inclusive 211
2008 – 2010 Inclusive 1.6
2011 – 2013 Inclusive 299
2014 – 2016 Inclusive 2.6
Time Period Three-Yearly Averaged Monthly Gas Generation
(GWh)
2008 – 2010 Inclusive 719.03
2014 – 2016 Inclusive 650.19
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Figure 2: Historical Monthly Gas and Renewable Generation, Averaged Yearly across 2008 - 2016
In addition to renewable generation, this change in gas generation may have been influenced by changes in gas price,
growth in electricity consumption and the commissioning of two coal-fired power stations over the analysis period.
The Bluewaters power station was commissioned in 2009, Muja B was recommissioned in 2013 and Muja A in 2014.
The influence of the commissioning of Bluewaters likely contributed to the decrease in gas generation prior to 2010
seen in Figure 2. The influence of Muja AB is less clear, most likely because Muja AB operates less often, so has a
smaller impact on the generation mix.
Figure 3 below illustrates the dispatch quantities by month of gas, coal and renewable generation in greater detail, plotting
the change in generation levels of these over time. This shows a trend towards increasing renewable and coal-fired
generation and decreasing gas-fired generation. The trendline of gas and coal indicate that coal is increasing 60% faster
than gas generation is decreasing over the same time period. The sum of the slope of gas and renewable almost perfectly
cancels each other out, which could suggest that greater renewable generation is having a larger effect on gas demand
than competition between gas-fired and coal-fired baseload generation. However it is more likely that both new renewable
and coal-fired generation have had an impact on gas generation.
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Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Figure 3: Levels of Gas, Coal and Renewables over time
Between 2008 and 2016 electricity consumption has grown by approximately 1.5% per annum. This corresponds to an
increase in monthly generation from 2008 to 2016 of approximately 180 GWh. This growth may have reduced the impact
of new coal and renewable generation on gas generation over the analysis period. Future growth in consumption is
expected to be slower, approximately 0.9% per annum20.
This higher demand growth over the analysis period may have reduced the apparent effect of renewables on gas
generation to some extent, leading to a lower net effect being seen in the analysis. The commissioning of Bluewaters
and Muja AB over the analysis period may have had the opposite effect, increasing the net effect indicated by the
analysis. However, these effects have not been removed from the values presented in this paper as it is not practicable
to accurately do so. Instead, this analysis assumes that the counter effects of load growth and new coal-fired generators
on the analysis cancel out.
To consider the influence of gas price over the analysis period the maximum non-liquid bid price for the STEM21 is
used as a proxy for gas price, as individual gas contracts by facility are not available. The maximum non-liquid bid price
is based on Market Generators’ estimated short run marginal cost of operation (closely tied to fuel price).
Figure 4 plots the maximum STEM price between 2008 and 2016. The most relevant years are 2008 to 2010 and 2014
to 2016 as these are the two three-year periods that the analysis uses to calculate a percentage change to gas
generation based on renewables nameplate capacity increases.
20 Refer to Appendix G of the 2015 Deferred WEM ESOO 21 For more information on the maximum STEM price refer to: https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Wholesale-Electricity-Market-WEM/Data/Price-limits
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7
201
3-1
0
201
4-0
1
201
4-0
4
201
4-0
7
201
4-1
0
201
5-0
1
201
5-0
4
201
5-0
7
201
5-1
0
201
6-0
1
201
6-0
4
201
6-0
7
201
6-1
0
201
7-0
1
GW
h P
er
Month
Aggregate Monthly Dispatch
Coal Renewable (Solar, Wind, Biomass) Gas
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Figure 4: Maximum STEM Price based on AEMO’s estimate of the SRMC of the highest-cost generating works
in the SWIS fuelled by gas by Financial Year 2008 – 2016
As the averaged prices are relatively consistent between the two periods ($299 for the 2008 to 2010 period and $274
for the 2014 to 2016 period) changes to gas prices are assumed to have a relatively small influence on the change to
gas generation. As a majority of gas contracts span longer terms than one year, actual price variation for gas supplied
to gas generators is most likely less than the variation suggested by Figure 4.
4.2.2 Results and Discussion
Figure 3 illustrates that the increased level of renewables coincides with reduced gas generation rather than coal. This
is expected because gas generation usually has a higher cost per MWh than coal. Although the variability of
renewables can lead to greater use of open cycle gas turbines to respond quickly to load variations, this accounts for
only a small amount of total gas generation. Base load gas generation facilities make up the bulk of dispatched gas
fired generation, and these are generally priced out of the economic dispatch model by renewable generation before
coal-fired generation.
The reduction in monthly average gas generation seen between the two three-year periods defined in Table 3 of
section 4.2.1 is 68.85 GWh per month (826.2 GWh p.a.).
Dividing this value by the increase in renewable nameplate capacity between the two three-year periods (299 MW)
gives a historical gas generation reduction of 2.76 GWh p.a. for every MW of new renewable nameplate capacity
installed.
The historical effect of renewable and coal generation on gas generation is further illustrated in Figure 5. This show the
percentage change in the generation fuel mix between 2010 and 2016.
$286
$276
$336
$314
$323
$305
$330
$253
$240
$230
$250
$270
$290
$310
$330
$350
FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Maximum STEM Price
Decrease in oil price and
repeal of carbon price.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
Figure 5: Dispatch by fuel type 2010 vs. 2016
4.3 Potential Future Effect of Renewables Penetration on Gas Demand
4.3.1 Methodology
The analysis in this paper adopts a top-down approach when projecting the potential effects of increased renewable
generation on gas demand in the SWIS. It is expected that the level of large scale renewables, particularly wind and
solar, will continue to increase in the future. To gain an understanding of how this may affect gas-fired generation and
gas consumption, the historical reduction calculated in section 4.2.2, 2.76 GWh p.a. of gas generation per MW (0.001
GW) of new renewable capacity installed, is used. Applying this to various levels of renewable generation, up to the
nameplate capacity required to reach the hypothetical LRET for the SWIS, provides an estimate of how future
increases in renewable generation will affect gas consumption in the SWIS.
The assumptions around gas price, new coal-fired generation, and load growth on the analysis in this section are
consistent with those outlined in section 4.2.1.
4.3.2 Analysis Results
Table 4 provides estimated average monthly reductions in gas generation for various increases in renewable capacity22
up to a level consistent with the hypothetical SWIS LRET.
Table 4: Forecast reduction in gas-fired generation for various levels of installed renewable nameplate
capacity in the SWIS
Total renewable nameplate capacity installed in the SWIS (GW)
0.712 0.812 0.912 1.012 1.112 1.214
Post 2010 new renewable nameplate capacity installed (GW)
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.002
Reduction in gas generation from 2008-2010 monthly average (GWh)
115.1 138.2 161.2 184.2 207.2 230.7
To convert the reduction in gas generation values outlined in Table 4 to reductions in gas demand, an average
efficiency needs to be applied. The efficiency values applied in the 2016 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) are
outlined in Table 5. The average efficiency for generation offset by renewable generation will most likely lie somewhere
22 This reduction is calculated by multiplying the post 2010 new renewable nameplate capacity values by the historical reduction value (2.76 GWh p.a. per MW of new
renewable capacity) then dividing by 12.
4%
48%
48%
0.3%
Percentage Generation by Fuel Type in 2010
wind gas coal other
8%
41%50%
1%
Percentage Generation by Fuel Type in 2016
wind gas coal other
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
between the mid-merit and baseload values, since peaking gas turbines only operate occasionally. Therefore, their
effect on overall gas demand is much smaller than mid-merit and baseload facilities.
Table 5: Assumed gas generator efficiencies
Generation Type Efficiency
Baseload Gas-Fired Generation 44.0%
Mid-merit Gas-Fired Generation 38.0%
Applying these efficiencies to the values in Table 3 for reduction in gas generation suggests that at the hypothetical
SWIS LRET renewable generation level, a reduction in gas consumption of between 62.1 TJ and 71.9 TJ per day could
be expected23.
23 Reductions in gas consumption are calculated by converting the monthly reduction in gas generation value (230.7 GWh) to a daily value, multiplying this by the GWh to
TJ conversion factor (3.6), and then dividing by the efficiency values in Table 5.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
5. IN SUMMARY
The incentives from the Commonwealth Government and a reduction of capital costs for renewable energy creates
financial incentives for increased levels of renewable generation in the SWIS. Increased renewable generation has an
effect on how thermal generators are traditionally being dispatched and influences the volume of domestic gas
consumed by gas-fired generators in the SWIS.
The LRET is the key incentive that is driving investment in renewable generation. This was introduced in 2001 and
revised in 2015 to 33,000 GWh per annum of renewable generation by 2020, anticipated to be 23.5% of total sent out
electricity generation in 2020.
To gain an understanding of the contribution the SWIS is making towards this target, and to analyse the LRET’s
potential effect on gas demand in the SWIS, a hypothetical SWIS LRET was calculated along with an investigation of
the historical effect of new renewable capacity on the generation mix. Using these, projections were made to estimate
the future effect of new renewable facilities on gas generation and gas demand in the SWIS. The results of this
analysis are detailed below:
The total renewable generation in the SWIS required to meet the 2020 LRET is approximately 3,773 GWh per
annum.
This is more than double the current sent out renewable generation in the SWIS (2015-16) and is equivalent to
a total nameplate capacity of approximately 1.21 GW of large scale renewable generation, 0.7 GW more than
what is currently installed.
Analysis of the historical effect of new renewable capacity on gas generation indicates a reduction in gas
generation of approximately 2.76 GWh per annum for every new MW of renewable capacity installed.
Projecting this forward to the hypothetical SWIS LRET gives a reduction in gas generation of 2,768.4 GWh per
annum.
This suggests that if the level of additional renewable nameplate capacity required to meet the 2020 LRET (0.7
GW) was installed tomorrow, a reduction in gas demand relative to current levels of between 62.1 and 71.9 TJ
per day24 could be expected.
These results are subject to the assumption that a number of variables remain constant. These are fully defined in
Section 3 of this paper. The top-down nature of this analysis means that the impact of some variables is not fully
explored. These include the influence of new coal-fired generation over the analysis period and changes to average
yearly load growth. These influences are discussed in Section 4.2.1
The analysis in this paper suggests that in the SWIS under the current market structure, gas-fired generation is
affected to a greater extent by increasing levels of renewable generation than the other dominant form of thermal
generation, coal.
24 Gas demand reductions calculated using gas generation efficiencies published in the GSOO for baseload and mid-merit gas generation facilities.
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
6. GLOSSARY
Terms used within this paper are defined below. For a full list of defined terms used in the WEM refer to Chapter 11 of
the WEM Rules25
Ancillary Service: A service that is required to maintain Power System Security and Power System Reliability,
facilitate orderly trading in electricity and ensure that electricity supplies are of acceptable quality.
Bilateral Contract: A contract formed between any two persons (excluding System Management) for the sale
of electricity by one of those persons to the other.
Capacity Factor: The percentage actual generation relative to the maximum theoretically possible based a
facility’s nameplate capacity (eg: a capacity factor of 100% for a facility with a nameplate capacity of 100 MW
would be 100 MW x 8,760 hours = 876,000 MWh per year)
Demand Side Programme: Means a Facility registered in accordance with the WEM Rules.
Generation: The electrical energy produced by a facility (in MWh). This is typically used in this paper when
quantifying the percentage share of a type of generation in the SWIS.
Generation Mix: the proportion of generation associated with the particular generation types (wind, coal, gas,
etc.)
Load Following Service or LFAS: Load Following Service is the service of frequently adjusting:
o the output of one or more Scheduled Generators; or
o the output of one or more Non-Scheduled Generators, within a Trading Interval so as to match total
system generation to total system load in real time in order to correct any SWIS frequency variations.
Market Generator: A Rule Participant registered as a Market Generator.
Market Participant: A Rule Participant that is a Market Generator or a Market Customer.
Nameplate Capacity: The maximum theoretical output of a facility (in GW or MW).
Ramp Rate Limit: Means the Market Participant’s best estimate, in MW per minute, on a linear basis, of a
Facility’s physical ability to increase or decrease its output from the commencement of a Trading Interval, and
includes a DSP Ramp Rate Limit.
Short Term Energy Market (STEM): A forward market operated under the WEM Rule in which Market
Participants can purchase electricity from, or sell electricity to, AEMO.
South West Interconnected System (SWIS): The electricity network extending between Kalbarri, Kalgoorlie
and Albany that serves the majority of Western Australia’s population.
Wholesale Electricity Market: The West Australian electricity market, established under section 122 of the
Electricity Industry Act.
25 https://www.erawa.com.au/rule-change-panel/rules
Renewables Influence on the Generation Mix and Gas Demand in Western Australia
7. APPENDIX A
Table 6: Renewable installation by facility, type, and time period
Participant Facility Registration Year-Month
Type Nameplate Capacity MW
Alinta ALINTA_WWF
Facilities installed between 2003 and 2007
Wind
89.1
EDWF Manager Pty Ltd EDWFMAN_WF1 80
Landfill Gas and Power Pty Ltd
RED_HILL
Biogas
3.8
TAMALA_PARK 4.8
Perth Energy Pty Ltd
ATLAS 1.1
ROCKINGHAM 4
SOUTH_CARDUP 3.4
Waste Gas Resources Pty Ltd HENDERSON_RENEWABLE_IG1 3
Synergy ALBANY_WF1
Wind
21.6
KALBARRI_WF1 2008-08 1.6
Mt.Barker Power Company Pty Ltd
SKYFRM_MTBARKER_WF1 2011-03 2.4
Collgar Wind Farm INVESTEC_COLLGAR_WF1 2011-05 206
Synergy GRASMERE_WF1 2012-03 13.8
Greenough River GREENOUGH_RIVER_PV1 2012-08 Solar 10
Denmark Community Wind Farm
DCWL_DENMARK_WF1 2013-03 Wind
1.44
Mumbida Wind Farm MWF_MUMBIDA_WF1 55
Blair Fox Pty Ltd BLAIRFOX_KARAKIN_WF1 2013-06 5
BLAIRFOX_WESTHILLS_WF3 2013-10 5
CleanTech Energy BIOGAS01 2015-09 Biogas 2
Synergy BREMER_BAY_WF1 2015-11 Wind 0.6