RENEWABLES ADDITIONS REQUIRED TO MEET GOVERNMENT...Netherlands Japan Spain Taiwan Nigeria Mexico...

2 Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment, 2020

RENEWABLES ADDITIONS REQUIRED TO MEET GOVERNMENT

TARGETS, WITH DEADLINES 2020-2030 (GW)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre, BloombergNEF

Solar PV, 460

Onshore wind, 143

Offshore wind, 80

Biomass & waste, 35 Geothermal, 2

721GW



TARGETS, WITH DEADLINES 2020-2030, BY COUNTRY (GW)


124.1

83.4

81.9

59.9

32.1

30.6

26.5

22.8

22.6

22.4

21.5

15.7

13.6

12.4

11.5

9.8

9.6

9.4

8.2

8.2

India

Germany

China

Saudi Arabia

U.K.

South Korea

U.A.E.

Italy

South Africa

France

Algeria

Netherlands

Japan

Spain

Taiwan

Nigeria

Mexico

Belgium

Brazil

Turkey

Solar PV

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Biomass & waste

Geothermal

Note: For targets based on electricity consumption or generation, the equivalent volume of

capacity was devised, based on BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2019



TARGETS, WITH DEADLINES 2020-2030, BY COUNTRY (GW)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre, BloombergNEFNote: Data up to end-January 2020

12

222

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

May-1

8

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar-

19

May-1

9

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20


PROJECTED ELECTRICITY SHORTFALL FOR THE RE100 (TWH)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-

UNEP Centre, BloombergNEF

Note: Certificate purchases are assumed to step down 10% each year. Onsite generation and contracted wind and

solar purchases remain flat through 2030. Electricity demand and renewable electricity demand don’t intersect in

2030, as some companies have targets extending out past 2030

6

18

2635

52

7088

106

126

145

166

188

210

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

TWh

Wind (contracted) Solar (contracted) Certificate purchases

Onsite generation Renewable shortfall Total electricity demand


CAPACITY ADDITIONS TO 2030 REQUIRED FOR TARGETS,

VERSUS REQUIRED FOR 2 DEGREES (GW)


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Government and corporate targets Required for 2 degrees

Renewables excluding hydro Hydro


NUMBER OF GOVERNMENTS THAT HAVE PLANS TO PHASE OUT

COMBUSTION-ENGINE VEHICLE SALES


2

69

13

8

12

22

26

30

8

14

28

35

43

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

National Municipal or regional


SHARE OF ENERGY FROM RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND

COOLING IN THE EU27 (%)

Source: Eurostat

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INVESTMENT,

2004 TO 2019 ($BN)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre, BloombergNEFNote: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

40.1

60.4

88.2

120.2

155.7146.5

213.0

264.7

239.9

211.7

265.1

300.3

280.0

315.1

280.2 282.2

51% 46% 36% 29% -6% 45% 24% -9% -12% 25% 13% -7% 13% -11% 1%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Asset finance Small distributed capacity


GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES CAPACITY BY SECTOR

IN 2019, AND GROWTH ON 2018 ($BN)


Close to zero in 2018

-43%

-56%

9%

-3%

-3%

6%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.7

9.7

131.1

138.2

Marine

Biofuels

Geothermal

Small hydro

Biomass & waste

Solar

Wind

Growth:


INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY

BY REGION, 2019 ($BN)


China 83.4

United States 55.5

Europe 54.6

Other APAC 45.1

Other EMEA 15.2

Other AMER 12.6

India 9.3 Brazil 6.5


INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES CAPACITY BY TOP 30

COUNTRY/MARKET IN 2019, GROWTH ON 2018 ($BN)



RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INVESTMENT

IN EUROPE, U.S. AND CHINA, 2004 TO 2019


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$bn

China Europe United States


INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES CAPACITY,

DEVELOPED VS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 2004-2019 ($BN)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre,

BloombergNEFNote: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Developed volumes are

based on OECD countries excluding Mexico, Chile, and Turkey.

32

43

64

85

104

94

145

187

144

119

142134 135

119127 130

817

24

35

52 53

68

78

95 92

123

166

145

196

153 152

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Developed Developing (China and India) Developing (other)


GLOBAL CAPACITY IN RENEWABLE POWER, 2004-2019 (GW)


BloombergNEFNote: "Other renewables" does not include large hydro-electric projects of more than 50MW

227 245281

311354

414481

564

658

749

854

982

1,120

1,279

1,443

1,627

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Solar Wind Biomass & waste Other renewables


RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPAICTY INVESTMENT IN $BN VS GW

CAPACITY ADDED, 2005-2019


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GW$bn

Capacity investment GW added


LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY, BY MAIN RENEWABLE

TECHNOLOGY, 2009 TO 2019 ($/MWH)

Source: UNEP, Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre, BloombergNEFNote: PV is crystalline silicon with no tracking.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Onshore wind Offshore wind PV

$/MWh


RENEWABLE GENERATION AND CAPACITY AS A

SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER, 2007-2019 (%)


BloombergNEFNote: Renewables figure excludes large hydro. Capacity and generation based on BloombergNEF totals.

19.5%

27.3%

41.7%

31.6%

39.8%

48.6%

37.9%41.0%

51.2% 50.8%

63.7%

67.6%

77.6%

7.5% 8.2% 9.2% 10.2% 11.4% 12.4% 13.5% 14.7% 16.2% 17.6%19.4%

21.0%22.8%

5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 7.9% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7% 10.6% 11.6% 12.4%

13.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Renewable capacitychange as a % of globalcapacity change (net)

Renewable power as a %of global power capacity

Renewable power as a %of global power generation


NET POWER GENERATING CAPACITY ADDED IN 2019

BY MAIN TECHNOLOGY (GW)


BloombergNEFNote: The chart does not show the negative figure from net closure of oil-fired capacity in 2018

Coal, 18GW

Gas, 30GW

Large hydro, 15GW

Other renewables, 5GW

Solar, 118GW

Wind, 61GW


RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INVESTMENT

OVER THE DECADE, 2010-2019 ($BN)


Solar 1,369Wind 1,067

Biomass & waste123

Small hydro 45Biofuels 28

Geothermal 20

Total $2.7 trillion


RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INVESTMENT FROM

2010 TO 2019, TOP 20 COUNTRIES/MARKETS ($BN)


818.0

392.3

210.9

183.4

126.5

90.0

82.9

60.6

49.9

47.6

37.2

33.5

31.5

24.8

22.3

22.1

21.1

20.1

18.0

15.3

719.4

China

United States

Japan

Germany

United Kingdom

India

Italy

Brazil

France

Australia

Spain

Canada

Netherlands

Mexico

Belgium

Sweden

Turkey

South Africa

Chile

Korea (Republic)

Europe

Frankfurt School – UNEP Collaborating Centre

Frankfurt School of Finance & Management

Adickesallee 32-34

60322 Frankfurt am Main

http://fs-unep-centre.org

www.frankfurt-school.de

E-Mail: [email protected]

Phone: +49 (0)69 154008-647

Fax: +49 (0)69 154008-464

Supported by the Federal Republic of Germany

RENEWABLES ADDITIONS REQUIRED TO MEET GOVERNMENT...Netherlands Japan Spain Taiwan Nigeria Mexico...

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