RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY- … m speaker 10...RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY-UTILITY...
Transcript of RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY- … m speaker 10...RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY-UTILITY...
RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY-UTILITY PERSPECTIVE:
What Looks Promising?Energy in California Law Conference
S b 22 2008September 22, 2008Michael DeAngelis, SMUD
WHAT LOOKS PROMISING?
• Supply Constrained ANY RENEWABLE!• Supply Constrained– ANY RENEWABLE!• Lowest Economic Cost Today• Greatest Cost Reduction Potential• Most Proven- Reliable, Durable, Predictable
L t E i t l C t• Lowest Environmental Cost• Reliable Electricity System Supply• Largest Resource for Future +Transmission
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
ECONOMIC COST ($/MWh)
Source: RETI Phase 1A Report, Black & Veatch, 3/08
LOWEST COST
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
COST REDUCTION: TECH DEVELOPMENT CONTINUUM
RD&D (PV, Sol. Thermal, Ocean)
Market Development:Wind, PV, Biomass,Geothermal, Solar Th.
COST REDUCTION/ MATURE
• Innovation Production Economies Learning• Innovation, Production Economies, Learning Curve, Scale-up
• Developing Technologies: PV, Solar Thermal, Biomass Gasification & Fuels, Ocean
• Most Mature (Reliable & Durable) Technologies: Small Hydro DC Biomass HT Geothermal WindSmall Hydro, DC Biomass, HT Geothermal, Wind
• Resource Expansion: LT Geothermal, LS Wind, Offshore Wind
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
ENVIRONMENTAL COST
ENVIRONMENTAL - AIR
LOCAL AIR QUALITY
GHG EMISSIONSQ
BIOMASS Major 0/MinorSM. HYDRO 0 0GEOTHERMAL 0/Minor 0/MinorWIND 0 0SOL THERMAL 0/Minor 0/MinorPV – CENTRAL 0 0PV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN 0 0
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
ENVIRONMENTAL - LANDLAND/HABITAT SPECIES OTHER
BIOMASS Minor Minor Vis/WasteSM. HYDRO Minor Minor Visual ImGEOTHER Minor Minor Visual ImWIND Minor Major/
MinorVisual Im
SOL THERM Major Minor Visual ImSOL THERM Major Minor Visual ImPV – CENTR Major Minor Visual ImPV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN ?/Minor Minor Visual Im
ENVIRONMENTAL - WATER
WATER USE WATER EMISSBIOMASS MAJOR/Minor MINORBIOMASS MAJOR/Minor MINORSM. HYDRO 0 0GEOTHER MAJOR/MINOR MINORWIND 0 0SOL THERM MAJOR/MINOR MINORPV – CENTR 0 0PV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN 0 0
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
SYSTEM RELIABILITY
• SMUD Peak Load (MW): 3400 (Summer); 1600• SMUD Peak Load (MW): 3400 (Summer); 1600 (Winter)
• Typical MW Summer Load:1200 (am) 3000 (pm) • Baseload: Geothermal, Biomass, LFG• Peaking & Dispatchable: Hydro, Solar Thermal• Intermittent (Variable): Small Hydro, Wind, Solar
& PV
SMUD DAILY SYSTEM LOAD& SOLANO WIND PRODUCTION
1600
1700
1800
70
80
90
h/Da
y)
Correlation = 59.2%
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
SMU
D Lo
ad (M
W)
10
20
30
40
50
60
Win
d Pr
oduc
tion
(MW
9001 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
Day of the Year
0
Daily Ave 2002-03 Load Daily Wind Production (MWh/Day)
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
SMUD HOURLY SYSTEM LOAD (Hot Summer Day) & SOLANO WIND PRODUCTION
2500
3000
7.5
9.0
)
Correlation = -39.6%
500
1000
1500
2000
Sys
tem
Loa
d (M
W)
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
Win
d P
rodu
ctio
n (M
W)
01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour
0.0
7/22/03 System Load Ave. Jun-Aug 2003 Wind Production
SMUD's RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX 2007
TOTAL BIOMASSTOTAL BIOMASS45%
TOTAL WIND27%
TOTAL GEOTHERMAL22%
TOTAL SMALL HYDRO6%
TOTAL PV< 1%
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
California WindResources MapSource: CEC PIER
GeothermalPotential
Greater Reno < 650 MWGreater Reno < 650 MWGeysters Area < 550 MWDixie Corridor < 500 MWMedicine Lake < 200 MWSurprise Valley < 40 MW
Source: GeothermEX StudyFunded by CEC PIER
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
BIOMASSRESOURCES IN WESTERN STATESSource: NRELSource: NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-560-39181
SMALL HYDROPOTENTIAL IN WESTERN STATES
S U S DOE Id h N ti lSource: U.S. DOE Idaho NationalLaboratory (INL) mapped by Black & Veatch in RETI 1A DraftReport, 3/08
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
Note: CEC Study Estimates 17,000 GW Solar PV Potential in Calif.
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA
LARGEST RESOURCE• RETI Assessments: AZ, Baja, BC, CA, NV, OR,
WA.• Biomass: 68,000 GWh• Small Hydro: 2,600 GWh• Wind: 240,000 GWh• Geothermal: 35,300 GWh• Solar PV: 41,000,000 GWh + Distributed =
Little Need for TransmissionLittle Need for Transmission• Solar Thermal: 2,400,000 GWh• Wave & Marine Current: 92,500 GWH
Source: RETI Phase 1A Report, CEC, 2008
WHAT LOOKS PROMISING?
• Caution: Site Specific Most Important for Cost & Environmental Impact
• Lowest Cost & Most Mature: Wind, Small Hydro, Geothermal, LFG, Biomass
• Wind & Solar PV Poses Largest Challenge for System Reliability
• Least Environmental Impact + Little Transmission N d PV R ftNeed = PV on Rooftops
• Resources Availability: Near-Term = Wind, Biomass, Geothermal; Long Term = Solar
Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA