Renewable Energy Workshop: Breaking the Ground – Challenges and Trends for Resource Assessment and...

©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

DISPUT E S & INVESTI GATI O N S • ECONOMI C S • F INAN CI A L ADVISO RY • MANAGEM E N T CONSULT I NG

May 5, 2014

B r e a k i n g N e w G r o u n d Challenges and Trends for Resource Assessment and Site Selection

AWEA WINDPOWER 2014 Mark Bielecki | Managing Consultant, Energy Practice Las Vegas, NV

1 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc. 1 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy.

Agenda

• Setting the Stage

• Development Challenges

• Trends in Site Selection

• Developments in Resource Assessment Methods

– Met Towers

– Remote Sensing

– Modeling: Meso/Microscale Coupling

• Market Opportunity

2 ©2014 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

Setting the Stage

Hot Topics in Site Selection

• DOE Wind Vision and solar energy goals

• NREL Renewable Electricity Futures

Study

• NREL renewable integration studies

• State RPS goals

• Grid operators with high penetration

(ERCOT, MISO, etc.)

High Penetration Scenarios

• Sites closer to load,

favorable resource, etc.

• Demand for forecasting

Complex Terrain

• Wind: sites with lower

resource are being

developed

• Transmission access,

load proximity, etc.

• Development/land

costs

Site Selection Trends

• Booming growth

• Trends toward larger capacity projects

• Environmental impact

• Operational flexibility, ramp events,

storage

Solar

• IEC Class III

• Taller hub heights

(DOE tower initiative)

• Larger rotor

diameters

Turbine Trends

• Load proximity +

high capacity factor

• Logistical and economic challenges

Offshore


• Variable generation is no longer “noise” on the system

• Geographic distribution of renewable generators within the grid impacts the ability to absorb variable generation

• A site with a great resource isn’t always a site worth building (congested transmission, curtailment risk, environmental impacts, etc.)

• A comprehensive site assessment campaign should consider resource, access to existing transmission, proximity to load, development costs, etc.

• Changing grid landscape: future operating schemes, storage, PEVs, EE/DSM

An Exercise in Optimization

Development Challenges

Optimal

Site

Economics

Development cost, LCOE,

PTC / ITC

Lifecycle

Demand, storage,

congestion


View from 10,000 Feet

Development Challenges

Existing wind and solar projects (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Transmission congestion

• Type I – “large quantities of renewables could be developed economically using existing technology…. if transmission were available to serve them”

• Type II – “area with renewable resource potential that is not yet technologically mature but shows significant promise”

(Source: U.S. Department of Energy)


• Chasing the best site vs. making the case for an available site

• Recent U.S. wind development has expanded in areas with lower wind resource

• Average hub height and rotor diameter has continued to increase

Stakeholder Perspective

Trends in Site Selection

(Source: 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report)


Technologies

Resource Assessment Methods

(Source: University of Massachusetts Amherst – Wind Energy Center, Navigant Research)

(Source: University of Texas)

Met Towers

(Source: NREL)

• Tangible, trusted, simple, cheap ($30K-$40K for lower heights)

• Typically required to validate remote sensing

• Cost and scaling issues for taller towers, FAA restrictions

• Permanent fixed towers for use in forecasting and operation optimization during life of project

Remote Sensing (SODAR & LIDAR)

• High-level starting point for site selection

• Mesoscale models coupled with CFD microgrids for complex terrain or micro-siting of turbines at a given site

• Site assessment if met tower and remote sensing data not available

• Regional wind integration studies, offshore

• DOE FOA for forecasting in complex terrain

• Able to capture entire profile of rotor swept area

• Mobile deployment across site

• Upstream forecasting during plant operation

• IEC power performance verification for turbines

• Subject to uncertainty in areas of complex flow

Modeling


• Demand for met towers will likely decrease with growth of remote sensing, although the two will remain complementary

• Several key market participants have expanded offerings to include a suite of resource assessment hardware and sensors

Market Opportunity in Resource Assessment

Market Opportunity

• IEC requirements to use remote sensing for power curve verification

• Forecasting requirements for grid operators (CAISO, ERCOT, etc.)

• Upstream forecasting for ramp events

• Operational assessment for refinancing or selling existing projects

• Offshore

Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020

(Source: Navigant Research)

(Source: Ecofys Consulting)

Combined Met Tower and Remote Sensing Device Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020

Reliability of remote sensing

Key C O N T A C T S



Key C O N T A C T S



Key C O N T A C T S



Key C O N T A C T S


Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute or copy. 8

Mark Bielecki | Managing Consultant

[email protected]

303.728.2524 direct

Renewable Energy Workshop: Breaking the Ground – Challenges and Trends for Resource Assessment and...

Environment

Transcript of Renewable Energy Workshop: Breaking the Ground – Challenges and Trends for Resource Assessment and...