Renewable Energy:Transatlantic Cooperation

3rd Transatlantic Market Conference: Growth & SecurityMay 13-14, 2007 Washington, DC

Michael Eckhart, PresidentAmerican Council On Renewable Energy

www.acore.org

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Topics

1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets

• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel

4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today

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ACORE Membership Categories

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Policy Conference

“Phase II of Renewable Energy in America”November 30, 2006

Cannon Caucus Room, Washington, DC

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Joint Outlook on RE in AmericaTo be released May 1, 2007

Technically Feasibly Renewable Electricityby 2025:

Wind Power 248 GWSolar Energy and Power 164 GWWater Power 23 GWGeothermal Energy and Power 100 GWBiomass energy, fuels and Power 100 GWTotal Renewable Electricity 635 GW

PLUS 30% of motor fuels from renewable fuels by 2030.

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Finance

Renewable Energy Finance Forum–Wall StreetProduced with Euromoney at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York

June 20-21, 2007

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Trade Show for Industry and Markets

“POWER-GEN Renewable Energy & Fuels”Held in Las Vegas - Produced with Pennwell

March 6-8, 2007

Opening Session

Exhibit Hall

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Great Wall Renewable Energy ForumOctober 23-26, 2006

Beijing, China

Organized by Jodie Roussell, ACORE Associate Director

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US Government to Host World MeetingWashington International Renewable Energy

Conference 20081. Bonn Renewables 2004 3. WIREC 2008

Three parts:• Global inter-governmental meeting:• Official side events• Trade ShowImpacts:• 5,000+ participants• New opportunity for US leadership• Advance global cooperation

2. Beijing 2005

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Topics

1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets

• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel

4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today

Technology Solutions

Maturing of Renewable Energy Technologies – A Pipeline

Solar PV

Hydro

WindBiomass

Biodiesel

CellulosicEthanol

Solar ThermalMSW/Landfill Gas

Geothermal

Ocean/Wave

Corn Ethanol

Source: Goldman Sachs

FUELS

ELECTRICITY

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Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cost of energy in constant 2005$1

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. November 2005.

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The Challenge of Putting RE into Use- Regional Resources, Economics, and Politics -

SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER

GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS

Resource Potential

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Topics

1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets

• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel

4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today

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Wholesale Power Generation

US Wind Power

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sources: AWEA (actual) and ACORE (forecast)

US Wind Power Installations(MW/Year)

11,900 MW Installed Base end 2006

Market Drivers: . Production Tax Credit. Renewable Portfolio Standards. Transmission

350,000 MW within 20-30 years

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Other Wholesale Power GenerationGeothermal, Hydropower, and

Solar Thermal-Electric

Geothermal Power:3,000 MW in development100,000 MW mid-term future

Hydropower:23,000 MW incremental hydro90,000 MW total “water power”

Biomass Power:Industrial CHP: 57 GWWholesale power: 37 GWSolid Waste: 10 GW

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Other Wholesale Power Generation

Concentrating Solar Power

Solar Dish-Sterling:850 MW Contracts

500 MW Letter of Intent

Solar Trough:64 MW Newly Completed1,000+ MW Proposed

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Distributed Generation

Global Solar PV Market

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1990 1995 2000 2005

GridOff-Grid

Sources: PV News and ACORE

Global Solar PV Production(MW/Year)

Annual Installations in 2005:

Germany: 750 MW/Year

Japan: 350 MW/Year

California 100 MW/Year

Key Issues:• Silicon shortage to 2008• Technology Race is on• US = 5% -10% of market

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Ethanol109 Plants + 78 projects in Construction in 19 States

Adding 6 BGY Capacity in the Next 18-24 Months

EthanolMillion Gallons / Year

• Booming expansion 2003-2008• MTBE replacement done• Demand for ethanol? E85?• Flex fuel vehicles?• President says 35 BGY by 2017• Upside: 60 – 100 BGY by 2030

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 2000 2010

2007 Outlook

2005 RFS

Actual

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US Biodiesel DemandVolumetric ‘Blender’ Tax Credit

Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Tax CreditAlternative Fuel Refueling Infrastructure Tax Credit

Biodiesel TaxIncentives

Source: Scott Hughes & J. Alan Weber

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Revolutionary Opportunity is at our Doorstep

Biofuels + Hybrid Engines50 – 100 mpg of fuel by Hybrid Vehicles

300–600 mpg of gasoline when running E8510x to 20x improvement

2003 Toyota Prius47 mpg

2006 Toyota Prius51 mpg

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Topics

1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets

• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel

4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today

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Wind Turbine Industry2005 Global Market Shares

1. Vestas Denmark 34%2. Gamesa Spain 18%3. Enercon Germany 15%4. GE Wind USA 11%5. Siemens Germany 6%6. Suzlon India 4%7. REpower Germany 3%8. Mitsubishi Japan 2%9. Ecotècnia Germany 2%10. Nordex Germany 2%

All Others 3%Total 100%

Goldwind, China

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Solar PV Industry2005 Global Market Shares – Production of PV Cells

1. Sharp Solar 428 MW2. Q-Cells 160 MW3. Kyocera 142 MW4. Sanyo 125 MW5. Mitsubishi 100 MW6. Schott Solar 95 MW7. BP Solar 90 MW8. Suntech 80 MW9. Motech 60 MW10. SolarWorld (Shell) 59 MW

All Others 388 MWWorld Total 1,727 MW

Solar PV Company,China

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Public Market Investment by Country2006

$3m (0/0/1)

$13m (1/0/0)

$51m (0/2/3)

$107m (1/0/0)

$175m (1/0/0)

$205m (7/4/0)

$238m (3/8/2)

$250m (0/2/0)

$281m (3/3/1)

$302m (1/0/0)

$332m (1/0/0)

$512m (1/0/0)

$635m (2/0/1)

$1160m (1/0/0) $3084m (10/10/18)

$3652m (5/4/5)Germany

United States

Norway

France

Bermuda

Philippines

Italy

China

Denmark

United Kingdom

Australia

Brazil

Austria

Canada

Thailand

Switzerland

IPO Secondary Convertible and other

Popular Motivation

Solar Insolation in Germany and the US

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US Government to Host World MeetingWashington International Renewable Energy

Conference 2008

Bonn Renewables 2004 WIREC 2008

International Collaboration on Policy

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Topics

1. ACORE2. Market drivers3. Status of Key RE Markets

• Windpower and other RE Power Generation• Solar PV• Ethanol and Biodiesel

4. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation5. The panel today

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Working Group 1:Solar, Wind, Biomass, Hydrogen

• Victor AbateVice President, Renewables, GE EnergySchenectady, New York

• Prof. Dr. N. El BassamDirector, International Research Center for Renewable Energy (IFEED), Lehrte, Germany

• Christoph HussHead, Dept. for Science and Traffic Policy, BMW AG, Munich, Germany

• Brendan KennedyGeneral manager – Defense, MAN Ferrostaal, Inc., New York, New York

• Dr. Ludolf PlassSenior Vice President Sales technology, Lurgi AG, Frankfurt/Main, Germany

Thank Yoube a member

www.acore.orgwww.acore.orgMichael Eckhart

American Council On Renewable Energymeckhart@acore.org