Renewable Energy Resources - Universitetet i Bergen · 2018. 2. 21. · Renewable Energy Resources...
Transcript of Renewable Energy Resources - Universitetet i Bergen · 2018. 2. 21. · Renewable Energy Resources...
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Renewable Energy
Resources
Finn Gunnar Nielsen
Professor
Geophysical Institute
SDG Conference 2018 UiB, 8-9 February
Knowledge for our common future
Sustainable energy for all - SDG7 - leave no one behind
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Outline
• The need for energy
• Primary energy versus energy services
• Key new renewables: Wind and solar
• Resources available
• Storage
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 2
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The world needs more energy!
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50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Petroleum and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Renewable
energy FGN
3
World primary
energy
consumption by
energy source
quadrillion Btu
Outlook
True?
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Petroleum and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
About 78 % of present primary energy comes from fossil fuels.
History Outlook “Reference case”
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017, Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
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The concern: Greenhouse gas emissions
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 4 Global Greenhouse gas emissions by sector (2012). Source: World Resource Institute, 2015
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Drivers in CO2 emissions
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017, Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
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0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
1990 2015 20400
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1990 2015 2040
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1990 2015 2040
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1990 2015 2040
Populationmillion people
Per capita gross
domestic productthousand dollars
Carbon intensitymetric tons CO2 per billion Btu
Energy intensitythousand Btu per dollar
Non-OECD
OECD
22 * * *em people
people
COGDP EnergyCO N
N GDP Energy
More renewables and higher efficiency
Renewable
energy FGN
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Forecast by DNV-GL (2017)
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 6
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Affordable and clean energy…
Important to several SDGs
• Improve availability
• Increase efficiency
• More renewables
• Improve standard of
living without increased
use of energy
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 7
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More energy to improve standard of
living?
• UN Human development index
(HDI) combines
– Life expectancy at birth
– Education level
– Economy
• GDP per capita in
purchasing power parity
(PPP)
Renewable
energy FGN
PAGE 8
True?
Jessica G.Lambert et al. Energy, EROI and quality of
life. Energy Policy 64(2014)153–167
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 9
100
35
65
31 28
CoalPrimary
ElectricitySecondary
ElectricityConsumed
Light LightUseful service
4
32
1
Losses: Heat Transmission Heat Idle etc
From coal to light - incandescent light bulb
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From renewables to light - incandescent light bulb
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 10
35 31 28
ElectricityHydro / Wind / Solar
ElectricityConsumed
Light LightUseful service
4
32
1
Losses: Transmission Heat Idle etc
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 11
ElectricityHydro / Wind / Solar
ElectricityConsumed
Light LightUseful service
1
32
1
Losses: Transmission Heat Idle etc
67
3
From renewables to light - LED light bulb
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Energy services versus primary energy
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 12
100
Coal
Incandescent light
35
Renewables
Incandescent lightRenewables
LED light7
Same service!
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Example: Private cars in Norway
• Transport work (service): ~6TWh/year
Renewable
energy FGN
PAGE 13
Transport work (6)
Heat loss in engine (24)Crude oil
(36)
refining & distribution(6)
Transport work (6)
Heat losses (1)
Transmission losses (1)
Hydro /Sun / Wind
(8)
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Renewables and electrification
Wind and Solar in front
SIDE 14Renewable
energy FGN
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A silent revolution?
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 15Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017
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Renewables are competing with fossil
fuels in power generation wrt costs
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 16
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 17
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 18
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 19
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The potential exceeds the demands.
Renewable
energy FGN
20Source: IPCC SRREN, 2011
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Renewables: The intermittency challenge
FGN SIDE 21
Source: Denholm et al. Overgeneration from Solar Energy in
California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart National Renewable
Energy Laboratory, 2015
Power needed
except from solar
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Storage technologies and applications
Renewable
energy FGN
22 Source: NREL, 2016: Energy Storage. Possibilities for Expanding Electric Grid Flexibility
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Some additional renewable energy resources
• 23 F.G. Nielsen, Marine Renewable Energy
Source: Gretar Ívarsson,Chief Joseph Dam
Hydropower Biofuel Geothermal
Waves Ocean thermal gradientTidal Salinity gradients
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Conclusions
• The world needs more energy services – not primary energy
• Renewables, electrification and improved efficiency may reduce the total primary energy need, despite increased population and higher standard of living.
• Wind and solar are vast resources and complementary.
• Wind and solar can compete with fossil based power generation.
• Geothermal, tidal etc are site specific resources.
• Waves, salinity and ocean thermal gradient are not mature technologies.
• Energy storage is a key to increased penetration of renewables.
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 24
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Statements by Karl Eirik Schøtt-Pedersen,
“Norsk Olje og gass”, 29.01.18
1. Norway’s export of gas to EU corresponds to 10
times the Norwegian el-energy production
2. We need 150 000 wind turbines to replace the
energy in this gas
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 26
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Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 27
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Statement 1.
• Gas export 2016: 115*109 Sm3/year (Norsk Petroleum)
• Gross energy content: 39.3 MJ/ Sm3 or 10.9 kWh/Sm3
• 115*109 Sm3 corresponds to 1254 TWh
• Norwegian el. Energy pr year about 140 TWh
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 28
I.e. Statement 1 approx. correct – but misleading?
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Use of gas versus electricity
• Gas for generating el. power (efficiency maximum 50 - 60%)
– I.e. 1kWh electrical energy per 2kWh gas energy.
• Gas for house heating (efficiency approx. 80%?)
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 29
• Renewables* for el. power (efficiency 100%)
• Renewables* for house heating (efficiency approx. 300%?)
– I.e. 3kWh heat per 1kWh electricity
*) Hydro, wind, solar PV
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«Primary energy factor» 2.5
• I.e. need 502TWh el. energy to replace 1254TWh gas.
• Wind energy: Capacity factor 0.4 – Need 143 GW installedpower.
• Next generation wind turbines: 10MW , i.e. need 14 300 units.
• I.e. statement 2 is very misleading!
• 143 GW unrealistic?
• Present rate in EU: 15 GW/year
• Present rate in China: 25 – 30 GW/year
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 30
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Conclusions
• Statements are not necessarily wrong, but
misleading
• Even if energy is conserved it has various quality (2.
law of thermodynamics)
• Renewables deliver high quality energy
Renewable
energy FGN
SIDE 31
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