RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE SUGARCANE · Fibre (bagasse) Left in fields Steam Electricity...
Transcript of RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE SUGARCANE · Fibre (bagasse) Left in fields Steam Electricity...
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4oC+: A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN THE
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE
SUGARCANESUGARCANE
Rasack NayamuthHead, Plant Physiology Department, MSIRI
Scientific and Technical Coordinator, SNC Mauritius
4 degrees and beyondInternational Climate Conference
28-30 September 2009, Oxford, UK
Location of Mauritius
MAURITIUS
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Total Area 186 500 ha
Sugarcane 68 500 ha
Sugarcane in Mauritius
Contribution to GDP
Employment
Energy production
Land conservation
Contribution to GDP 2007
Total 2.2%
Agriculture 46%
Land Occupancy in Mauritius
Abandoned cane fields
3%
Sugar cane 38%
Roads
Built-up areas 25%
Other agriculture
5%
Forest & grazing lands
25%
Water bodies2%
2%
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Electricity generation mix - 2007
CEB Hydro4%
CEB Thermal40%
IPP Bagasse16%
IPP Coal40%
CEB Kerosene0.1%
Electricity from Sugarcane in Mauritius
350 30
150
200
250
300
GW
H
10
15
20
25
mes
tic C
onsu
mpt
ion
Electricity exported
0
50
100
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
5
% o
f Dom
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GHG Avoided by Sugarcane Biomass
600000
700000Heavy oil Coal
eq)
200000
300000
400000
500000
GH
G E
mis
sion
(t C
O2-
e
0
100000
200000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
G
Impact Climate variability on Cane Productivity
90TCH
60
70
80
40
50
1997 1998 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1999 1994 2002
NORMAL YEARS DROUGHT CYCLONIC
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y = 0 013x + 1 208
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2.1.1 Regression of average yearly maximum temperatureIsland
(oC)
y = 0.013x + 1.208R2 = 0.200
27
28
25
26
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Increase 0.13 oC / 10 yr
22
2.2.1 Regression of average yearly minimum tempIsland
(oC)
y = 0.026x - 31.085R2 = 0.482
20
21
18
19
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Increase 0.26 oC / 10 yr
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4000
1.1 Regression of annual rainfall over the island
(mm)
y = -5.17x + 12178R2 0 1
2000
3000
R2 = 0.1
0
1000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Decrease 52 mm / 10 yr
Period 1961 - 1990 Period 1971 - 2000
MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL (mm/yr)
600 - 800
801 - 1000
1001 - 1500
1501 - 2500
2501 30002501 - 3000
3001 - 4000
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Annual rainfall at Pamplemousses
YEAR1
61 - 702015
71 - 801337
81 - 901324
91 - 00868
2345678
1708132114631662123818011532
1982127710491285158013641307
22331061989
175312022322988
10851298829
14971095117612398
910
MEAN
153215281601
1587
130718992407
1549
9881334816
1402
1239711
1237
1103
9
10
T.CycloneLinear (T.Cyclone)
Increase of intense tropical cyclone
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Num
ber o
f tro
pica
l Cyc
lone
( y )5 per. Mov. Avg. (T.Cyclone)
0
1
2
1975
-76
1977
-78
1979
-80
1981
-82
1983
-84
1985
-86
1987
-88
1989
-90
1991
-92
1993
-94
1995
-96
1997
-98
1999
-00
2001
-02
2003
-04
2005
-06
2007
-08
Cyclone Season
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SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGES FOR MAURITIUS
Precipitationratio (mm)
TemperatureIncrease (°C)
Solar Radiationratio (W m-2)
Doublimg of CO2 level (760 ppm)
ratio (mm)Increase ( C) ratio (W m )
1.021.193.59GISS
1.061.032.68GFDL
1.000.872.12UKMO
0 981 092 42CCCM 0.981.092.42CCCM
• Incremental scenariosArbitrary changes of +2 and 4°C with +/- 10 and 20% rainfall
Validation of APSIM-Sugarcane Model Biomass accumulation
80 80 M 13/56R 570
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bio
mas
s D
W (t
ha-1
)
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bio
mas
s D
W (t
ha-1
)
0
10
20
0
10
20B
PC 1RPC 1R
ObservedSimulated
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Impacts on sugarcane productionGCMs scenarios
( /t )Cane yield WUE
(mm/t crop)t/ha
70.8
55.7
52.3
55 4
Baseline
CCCM
GFDL
GISS
-21
-26
-22
10.5
14.2
15.3
15 3
% Change
41.2
55.4GISS
UKMO -42
-22
17.2
15.3
Singh and Maayar – Trinidad -18 to - 42 %
Impacts on sugarcane productionIncremental scenarios
Cane yield WUE(mm/t crop)t/ha
53.6+20% RR & + 4oC -24 16.0
% Change
47.3+10% RR & + 4oC -33 12.8
40 60% RR & + 4oC 43 14 1
70.8Baseline 10.5
33.7-10% RR & + 4oC -52 15.2
27.2-20% RR & + 4oC -62 17.2
40.60% RR & + 4 C -43 14.1
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Recent Climate Change Projections
• MAGICC-SCENGEN v5.3 (9 best GCMs)
2020
Time
2030
Precipitation
-5.41
-7.02
Change (%)Temperature Change (oC)
0.37
0.56
Mean
0.43
0.64
Min
0.59
0.87
MaxHorizon
205020802100
-11.09
-20.41
-22.44
1.15
2.06
2.89
1.00
1.78
2.50
1.57
2.80
3.95
Adaptation options evaluated
Irrigationg
Alternate varieties
Alternative harvest dates
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IRRIGATION IMPACT
(mm/t crop)t/haCane yield WUE
112
117
132
120
Baseline
CCCM
GFDL
GISS
7.8
8.7
8.4
9.3
121UKMO 8.4
115 9.7Incremental, +4oC
Fresh water abstractions by source
ReservoirsGround water
Reservoirs23%
18%
Rivers & streams
59%
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Water utilisation
Domestic Industrial &
Tourism32%
Industrial private boreholesAgriculture boreholes
1%Agriculture
67%
About 40% used for Hydropower
Impact on GHG emissions
ScenarioBagasse production
GHG * emissions
Best case
Worst case
Scenario production emissions
-270 655 t 129 599 t CO2-eq
-813 813 t 388 797 t CO2-eq2 q
* Emissions resulting from coal burning
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Stalk
JuiceRaw and
special sugars
Possibilities for enhancing mitigation potential of sugarcane in Mauritius
Stalk
Cane topsleaves trash
Fibre (bagasse)
Left in fields
SteamElectricity
Molasses
Filter cake & furnace ash
75% Exported
To fields
MAURITIUSProject area
Pamplemousses
La Nicoliere001000
Rainfed cane
Irrigated cane
ROUGH ESTIMATES OF ADAPTATION COSTS USD - 2009 PRICES
Midlands Dam
La Nicoliere
3500
1500
20002500
3000
10
Project area
Isohyet
Surface water storage
Additional water 423 Mm3
USD 730M
Irrigation network
TOTAL ESTIMATES
% GDP
USD 270M
USD 1 billion
13% GDP GROWTH 5%
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Conclusions
Sugarcane industry highly vulnerable to CCAdaptation impossible because of
Increased water demandHigh costs of irrigation networkHigh costs of water storageLess water from reduced rainfall
4oC beyond adaptation limit
4oC = GHG emissions = Further GLOBAL WARMING
4oC = Reduced production
Global impacts of +4 degrees
MAURITIUS
Source : http://www.sugarcanecrops.com
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The National Meteorological Services forproviding the long-term met data for the study
• Environmental Change Institute for their supportto attend and present this work