Religion, Biology, Politics, and Economics: The Struggle of Reason with Emotion
description
Transcript of Religion, Biology, Politics, and Economics: The Struggle of Reason with Emotion
1
Religion, Biology, Politics, and Economics:
The Struggle of Reason with Emotion
copies of this presentation can be found atwww.business.duq.edu/faculty/davies
2
Trade and Per-Capita Income
Conventional wisdom
Trade leads to a shift in wealth from workers and consumers to multinational corporations, and from developing nations to developed nations.
3
R2 = 0.56
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000
Per-capita Income (US$)
Per
-cap
ita
Tra
de
(US
$)
Source: International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, December 2001
Greater per-capita trade is associated with greater per-capita income.
4
Distribution of Income
Conventional wisdom
Trade results in a concentration of income so that the few benefit dispro-portionately to the many.
5
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0
Gini Coefficient (0 = equitable, 100 = inequitable)
Per
-cap
ita
Tra
de
(US
$)
Source: International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, December 2001, and Measuring Income Inequality: A New Database, Deininger, Klaus, and Lyn Squire, World Bank, 2002
Greater per-capita trade is associated with more equitable income distributions.
6
Gender Equality and Child Labor
Conventional wisdom
Trade results in the exploitation of women and children.
7
R2 = 0.80
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
Gender Related Development Index (0 = low gender adjusted HDI, 1 = high gender adjusted HDI)
Pe
r-c
ap
ita
Tra
de
(U
S$
, lo
ga
rith
mic
sc
ale
)
Source: International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, December 2001, and Human Development Report, United Nations Development Programme, 2002
GDI measures quality of life (longevity, education, literacy, income) for women relative to men.
Greater per-capita trade is associated with greater gender equality.
8
Source: International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, December 2001, and World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2002
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Children 10 to 14 in the Labor Force (as % of age group)
Per
-cap
ita
Trad
e (U
S$,
lo
gar
ith
mic
sca
le)
Even among middle-lower and lower income countries, greater per-capita trade is associated with reduced child labor.
9
Trade and Unemployment in the U.S.
Conventional wisdom
Trade destroys American jobs.
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis
January 1975 to June 2006
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
Trade (imports plus exports) as % of GDP
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
Greater trade is associated with reduced unemployment.
11
Trade and Unemployment in the U.S.
Conventional wisdom
Trade erodes Americans incomes.
12
January 1975 to June 2006
$12.00
$12.50
$13.00
$13.50
$14.00
$14.50
$15.00
12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
Trade (imports plus exports) as % of GDP
Av
era
ge
Re
al H
ou
rly
Ea
rnin
gs
(2
00
0$
)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis
Greater trade is associated with increased real wages.
13
Global Warming
Conventional wisdom
Global temperatures are rising at an alarming rate.
14
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
1880-2003
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
18
80
18
85
18
90
18
95
19
00
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Te
mp
era
ture
De
via
tio
n (
de
gre
es
C a
bo
ve
/be
low
th
e a
ve
rag
e
for
19
79
th
rou
gh
19
85
)
Over the period 1880-2003, global temperatures have risen, on average, by 1.1 degrees Celsius.
15
Source: CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Compared to the past 400,000 years, the current rise in global temperatures is neither extreme nor unexpected.
16
CO2 Levels Cause Global Warming
Conventional wisdom
Global warming is due to man-made CO2 levels.
17
1880 - 1985
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Man-Made CO2 Emissions (Tg)
Te
mp
era
ture
De
via
tio
n (
de
gre
es
C
ab
ov
e/b
elo
w t
he
av
era
ge
fo
r 1
97
9 t
hro
ug
h
19
85
)
Source: www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/co2table.html
18
Income Inequality
Conventional wisdom
The rich are getting richer while the poor get poorer.
19
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
< $
15,0
00
$15,0
00 -
$25,0
00
$25,0
00 -
$35,0
00
$35,0
00 -
$50,0
00
$50,0
00 -
$75,0
00
$75,0
00 -
$100,0
00
> $
100,0
00
% o
f H
ou
seh
old
s
1980
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006, Table 673.
Income Distribution for 1980 (in 2003$)
20
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
< $
15,0
00
$15,0
00 -
$25,0
00
$25,0
00 -
$35,0
00
$35,0
00 -
$50,0
00
$50,0
00 -
$75,0
00
$75,0
00 -
$100,0
00
> $
100,0
00
% o
f H
ou
seh
old
s
1980 2003
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006, Table 673.
Income Distribution for 2003 (in 2003$)
21
U.S. Manufacturing
Conventional wisdom
The U.S. manufacturing sector is in decline.
22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Em
plo
ym
en
t as %
of
Civ
ilia
n L
ab
or
Fo
rce
Manufacturing, Mining, and Natural Resources Services Government
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (via www.economy.com)
Since 1948, employment in Services industries has grown by 50% while employment in Manufacturing industries has declined by 50%.
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Ind
ust
rial
Pro
du
cti
on
(20
02=
100
)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (via www.economy.com)
While the number of American jobs in manufacturing has been declining, American production of industrial goods has been rising. This implies that American manufacturing is becoming more efficient as it produces ever more output using less labor.
24
Minimum Wage
Conventional wisdom
Increases in the minimum wage help the poor.
25
Less than HS Education (1984-2004)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44
Min Wage as Fraction of Avg Hourly Wage
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Increases in the minimum wage are associated with increases in unemployment among the lesser educated.
26
College Education (1984-2004)
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.4 0.42 0.44
Min Wage as Fraction of Avg Hourly Wage
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Increases in the minimum wage are not associated with increases in unemployment among the better educated.
27
Price of Gasoline
Conventional wisdom
The price of gas is rising.
28
Average Retail Price per Gallon of Gasoline
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.501967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003 (Table 725), 1996 (Table 759) 1995 (Table 775).
The price of gas rose more than seven-fold from 1967 through 2005.
29
Per-Capita Disposable Income
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (via www.economy.com).
Per-capita disposable income has risen more than ten-fold from 1967 through 2005.
30
Cost of 1 Gallon of Gas as a % of Disposable Income
0.000%
0.002%
0.004%
0.006%
0.008%
0.010%
0.012%
0.014%
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (via www.economy.com).
For gas today to be as expensive as it was in 1967, gas would have to cost more than $3.25 per gallon.
For gas today to be as expensive as it was in 1981, gas would have to cost $4.00 per gallon.
31
Social Security
Conventional wisdom
People need Social Security to insure they can survive retirement.
32
($30,000)
($20,000)
($10,000)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100
Compiled from data published in 2003 Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and provided by the Social Security Administration
Expected annual Social Security tax payments
Expected annual Social Security benefits
Expected tax payments and benefits reflect the likelihoods of employment and mortality.
33
($30,000)
$20,000
$70,000
$120,000
$170,000
$220,000
$270,000
$320,000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77
Compiled from data published in 2003 Statistical Abstract of the United States, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and provided by the Social Security Administration
Expected annual Social Security tax payments
Expected annual benefits from privatized accountThis chart assumes that 100% of the
worker’s current Social Security taxes are diverted to a private investment account.
34
Religion, Biology, Politics, and Economics:
The Struggle of Reason with Emotion
copies of this presentation can be found atwww.business.duq.edu/faculty/davies