Relationship Between Economic Activity and SOx Emissions: 1950-2000

Version 5 April 22, 2002

Class Project

Me 449 Sustainable Air Quality

Y. Kuwabara, S. Lahr, B. Ponczak, M Roberts, A. Shaw

Instructor: R. Husar

Washington University

School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Economic Activity-Emission Relationship

Develop a relationship between the pollutant emission rate SOx and the activities in Industrial, Transport, Residential and Commercial economic sectors.

SOx = f ( IA, TA, RA, CA)

Industrial, IA

Transport, TA

Residential,TA

Commmerc.,CA

Ind. Energy

Tr. Energy

Res.Energy

Com. Energy

Coal

Oil

Gas

Electricity

Air Pollution

SOx

NOx

HC

PM

Activity Consumption Production Emission

Metals

ZOther

Ind. Goods

Nuclear

Land Poll.

Water Poll.

Ind. Activity, IA

Transp. Activity,TA

Resid. Activity,RA

Comm. Activity,CA

Industr. Energy, IE

Transp. Energy, TE

Resid.Energy, RE

Commerc. Energy, CE

ActivityGoods Consumption

Material Goods Consumption, MG = aim x IA

Ind. Other GoodsCons., XG = aix x IA

Ind. Energy Consumption, IE = aii x IA

Transp. Energy Consumption, TE = att x TA

Resid. Energy Consumption, RE = arr x RA

Commercial Energy Cons., CE = acc x CA

Total Goods & Energy Consumption = MG + IE + TE + RE + CE

Total Goods & Energy Consumption = aim x IA + aii x IA + att x TA + arr x RA + acc x CA

aim =Material Goods/Industrial Activity

ate =Transport Energy/Transport Activity

are = Residential Energy/Residential Activity

ace = Residential Energy / Residential Activity

Material Goods, MG

aie =Industrial Energy/Industrial Activity

Other Goods, XGaix =Other X Goods/Industrial Activity

Coal Cons. CC

Oil Cons, OC

Gas Cons, GC

Metals Cons, MC

bic =(ICC+ILC)/IE

bmm = MC /MG

Metals Cons., MC = bmm x MG = = aim x bmm IA

Coal Cons, CC = bic x IE + btc x TE + brc x RE + bcc x CE

= aii x bic x IA + att x btc x TA + arr x brc x RA + acc x bcc x CA

Oil Cons, CC =

Gas Cons, CC =

Industr. Energy, IE

Transp. Energy, TE

Resid.Energy, RE

Commerc. Energy, CE

Goods Consumption

Material Goods, MGMaterial Consumption

btc =(TCC+TLC)/TE

brc =(RCC+RLC)/RE

bcc =(CCC+CLC)/CE

Other Goods, XG

XChemical Cons XC

bmx = XG /XC

Electricity distribution Matrix

The coefficients ILS etc. represent electric energy consumed by a given sector by a fuel

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear & Other

Industrial ILC ILO ILG ILN

Transport TLC TLO TLG TLN

Resident RLC RLO RLG RLN

Commerc. CLC CLO CLG CLG

Ind. Electr. by Coal, ILCTrasp. Electr. by Coal, TLCResid. Electr. by Coal, RLCComm. Electr.by Coal, CLC

Coal Cons. CC

Oil Cons, OC

Gas Cons, GC

Metals Cons, MC

Material Consumption

Air Pollution

SOx, SE

NOx, NE

HC, HE

PM, PE

Emission

Nuclear, U

Land Poll., L

Water Poll., W

cms = S/MC

ccs = S/CC

cos = S/OC

cgs = S/GC

Emission relationship to material(metal) and fuel consumption:

SOx Emission, SE = cms x MC + cxs x XC + ccs x CC + cos x OC + cgs x GC

Chemical Cons, XCcxs = S/XC

Emission relationship to goods and energy demand:

SOx Emission, SE = cms x bmm x MG + cxs x bmx x XG + Metals & XOther

ccs x (bic x IE + btc x TE + brc x RE + bcc x CE) + Coal

cos x (bio x IE + bto x TE + bro x RE + bco x CE) + Oil

cgs x (big x IE + btg x TE + brg x RE + bcg x CE) Gas

Emission relationship to economic activities:

SOx Emission, SE =

= cms x bmm x aim x IA + cxs x bmx x aim x IA +

ccs x (bic x aii x IA + btc x att x TA + brc x arr x RA + bcc x acc x CA) +

cos x (bio x aii x IA + bto x att x TA + bro x arr x RA + bco x acc x CA) +

cgs x (big x aii x IA + btg x att x TA + brg x arr x RA + bcg x acc x CA)

Gross Domestic Product, (1996B$)

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

9,000.00

10,000.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

GDP, 1996$ (B$) US Population, (MM)

GDP/Person, (1000$)

Manufacturing GDP (1996B$)

0.00

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

7,000.00

8,000.00

9,000.00

10,000.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

GDP, 1996$ (B$)

Manufactuing GDP (1996M$)

Industrial Energy by Fuel

Since 1970, electricity has become the largest energy source for the industry

Industrial Energy Consumption - Separate Electr

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

IE Coal IE Gas IE OilIE Other (Elec) IE (Bbtu)

Industrial Energy Consumption incl. Electr

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

IE + EL CoalTotal

IE Oil Total

IE Gas Total

IE Other Elec IE Sum

‘Green’ – non fossil fuel electricity is becoming a significant energy source

Industrial Energy and Sox Emiss

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

IE (Bbtu) IE SOx(1000 Short Tons)

Metals Production and Emission Metals Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

MT Ferrous/1000

MT Cooper

Metals Sox Emiss

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

MT Sox Copper MT Sox Ferrous

Commercial Residential Sector Indices

• The residential and Commercial sector have grown parallel since 1950

Comm Durable Goods Sales

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

sales of consumer durable goods (1996M$)

sales of consumer durable goods/Person(1996M$)CE(Bbtu)

Commercial and Residential Energy Use

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

RE(Bbtu) CE(Bbtu)

Commercial Residential Sector

• The person/housing declined but the energy/housing peaked around 1970

Energy/Housing and Occupancy

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

RE(Bbtu)/HousingUnit Person/Housing Units (MM)

Resid. Housing Units and Energy Use

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

RE(Bbtu)

Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)

• The residential units and the energy use has grown have grown parallel since 1950

Commercial Residential Energy Consumption

• Since the 1960s, electricity has become the main energy source

Commercial & Residential Energy Consumption - Separate Electr

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Oil CE+RE Other

CE+RE(Bbtu)

Commercial & Residential Energy Consumption incl. Electr

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000B

Btu

CE+RE Coal Tot

CE+RE Oil Tot

CE+RE Gas Tot CE+RE Other Elec

CE+RE Sum

• Currently, ‘dirty’ coal and ‘clean’ gas supply the CR energy

Commercial Residential Sox Emissions

• Since the 1960s, direct Sox emissions from the CR sector has been minimal

Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal

CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Oil

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Total

Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal

CE+RE Oil Total

CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Total CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Total• Virtually all the CR Sox emissions are contributed indirectly through the use of electricity

Commercial Residential Sox Emission Factors

Commercial & Residential Emission Factors- Separate Electr

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal

CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Oil

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Sox Sum

Commercial & Residential Emission Factors incl. Electr

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal Total CE+RE Oil Total CE+RE Gas Total

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Sox Sum

Comm. Res. Sox Emission Factors/Person

• Considering only the direct emissions, the em. factors have declined dramatically

ComRes SOx/Energy, Sox/Housing

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

(CE+RE + EL Sox Emission)/Person

(CE+RE +EL Sox Emission)/Btu(CE+RE + EL Sox Emission)/Housing

ComRes SOx/Energy, Sox/Housing

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Btu

(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Housing(CE+RE Sox Emission)/Person

• Including the indirect EL emissions, the em. factors have declined slightly

CR Causality: Population - Housing - Sox Emissions

• In the 1950-1970, the increase of Sox was driven by the population increase

• The Sox decline since 1960 was caused by a reduction of emission factors

Commercial & Residential SOx Emission - Separate Electr

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal

CE+RE Oil Total

CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Total CE+RE Gas

CE+RE Total

Resid. Housing Units and Energy Use

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

RE(Bbtu)

Number of Occupied Housing Units (MM)

Population

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

US Population, (MM)

Energy/Housing and Occupancy

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

RE(Bbtu)/HousingUnit Person/Housing Units (MM)

Commercial & Residential Emission Factors incl. Electr

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

BB

tu

CE+RE Coal Total CE+RE Oil Total CE+RE Gas Total

CE+RE Other

CE+RE Sox Sum