Relationship between Coup and Economics in Thailand

Hosei University Fujita’s Team

×

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Logic flow

1. 2. Previous Study Definition of the coup

-1. Coups of 1971, 1991 and 2006 -2. Si x Hypotheses in Roger Vrooman’s article

3. Analysis -1. Coup Analysis on 1970s -2. Coup Analysis on 1991 -3. Coups Form Changing from 1970s to 1991

4. Conclusion

Reference

IntroductionPrevious Study

Six HypothesesAnalysis

Conclusion

Introduction

After Siamese Revolution of 1932,Coup has occurred by military

In previous studies…

Coup

Politics Military

Surface!!

We found “Change rate amount of rice” was decreased!!

Figure1. Change rate amount of rice

1 9 5 91 9 6 0

1 9 6 11 9 6 2

1 9 6 31 9 6 4

1 9 6 51 9 6 6

1 9 6 71 9 6 8

1 9 6 91 9 7 0

1 9 7 11 9 7 2

1 9 7 31 9 7 4

1 9 7 51 9 7 6

1 9 7 71 9 7 8

1 9 7 91 9 8 0

1 9 8 11 9 8 2

1 9 8 3

1 9 8 4 / 8 5

1 9 8 5 / 8 6

1 9 8 6 /8 7

1 9 8 7 / 8 8

1 9 8 8 / 8 9

1 9 8 9 / 9 0

1 9 9 0 / 9 1

1 9 9 1 / 9 2

1 9 9 2 / 9 3

1 9 9 3 / 9 4

1 9 9 4 / 9 5

1 9 9 5 / 9 61 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8 / 9 9

1 9 9 9 / 0 0

2 0 0 0 / 0 1

2 0 0 1 / 0 22 0 0 2

2 0 0 3 / 0 4

2 0 0 4 / 0 5

2 0 0 5 / 0 6

2 0 0 6 / 0 72 0 0 7

2 0 0 82 0 0 9

2 0 1 02 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

-30.0000

-20.0000

-10.0000

0.0000

10.0000

20.0000

30.0000

40.0000

50.0000

60.0000

Whole Kingdomreference:author making byStatistical year book

％

Table 1 List of political changes (coup) in ThailandOct. 14, 1973 brought: 1.King supporting structure

2.Radical democratization structure 　　　 　　 (ex. Freedom of speech)Oct. 6, 1976 Anti-revolution by conservative brought: 1. Tanin government shift the suppression of free speech　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 2. Military carry out a coup

/Many students become “Forest”(communist armed struggle)Oct, 1977 　 brought: 1. Recovery of free speech which will get called in “half democracy”Feb. 23, 1991 　　　　　　　　　　　　　 brought: Efficient politics under the Anand government (Technocrat)Jan. 24, 2006 1. Stock gains of Thaksin is picked up in the media (He sell the stock to the Temaseku of Singapore at 73.3 billion baht)

Sept. 19, 2006 　　　　　　　　　 occurs while Prime Minister Thaksin visited to the United States As a result: 1. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is ousted, and enters the exile 2. Former army commander Surayud is appointed prime minister

Jan. 26, 2010 60% of Thaksin family’s assets (about 46.4 billion baht) forfeited as an illicit enrichment at the Thailand Supreme Court ruling

May. 19, 2010 Such a red shirt executive Nattawut profess a dissolution of meeting under the forced elimination by the security authorities.Arson and looting happened around the regions by the group which did not accept dissolution

July. 4, 2010 Yingluck (Thaksin’ sister) government established by general election.May. 20, 2014 Military issued a martial law and declared a coup on May 22. Source ： Yamamoto(2011), Nihon Keizai Shimbun

Table 1. List of Political Changes (coup) in ThailandStudent revolution

A coup by Kriengsak

A coup by Suchinda

Military coup

Coup

Rice Economics

?

40% of working population engages agriculture

2-1 About coups 1971 coup

• Government abused power

Michael L Mezey (1973)

• Threat of communism

Morrison (1972)

１９９１ coup

2006 coup

• the frustration of military against parliamentary democracy

Ferrara (2011)

• the confrontation between inside of military

Ockey (2007)

• gap of income, education, consciousness and culture effect

Albritton and Bureekul(2007)

• Corruption of government

Banbongkarn(1992)

Six hypotheses which account for coup in terms of and 　　 factors

Political Factors

① Political participation

② Foreign influence

③ Electoral process

Economic Factors

④ GDP performance

⑤ Income inequality performance

⑥Export-based product performance

political economic

Section 2. Six hypotheses by Roger Vrooman (2007)

Three economic factors didn’t impact on two coups

in 1991 and 2006

Hypothesis(4)

GDP Performance

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20130

50

100

150

200

250

Source: World Bank data

Asian currency crisis

Figure 2. GDP in Thailand from 1965 to 2013 (Constant 2005 US$, Billion)

Hypothesis(5)

Income Inequality Performance

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

Figure 3. Gini’s co efficient in Thailand from 1988 to 2010

Source: World Bank data

%

Hypothesis(6)

Export-based product performance

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Source: World Bank data

Figure 4. Export value in Thailand from 1980 to 2013 (2000=100)

Source: World Bank data

1980

1981

19821983

198419

85198

61987

1988

19891990

19911992

1993

19941995

199619

971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

2009

20102011

20122013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Figure 5. Export value in Thailand from 1980 to 2013 (2000=100)

Three economic factors didn’t influence 1991 and 2006 coup

Chapter 3 – Coups Analysis

1970s coup1991 coupCoup form changes from 1970s to 1991

or

Coup

RiceEconomy

Relate or notRelate or not

‣ 3-1. Coup Analysis on 1970s

1971 Coup

1973 Student revolution

1976 Reactionary Coup

1977 Coup

⋆1971 coup analysis

(year)

Price rate(%)

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

-25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%Figure6: Change rate of export rice price/1t

Source: Statistical year book in Thailand

Atrocious crime increased

Bankruptcies of textileIncreasing in unemployment

Regressive policy Rubber price downlike Ban of the purchasing on rice

Though the export rice price fell, the domestic price of rice rather rose

Increase in consumer prices4

Thammast University investigation

Proportion of food cost in factory worker family was

….. about 50%

10% of broken rice: 127 baht→154.3 baht / 100kg

21% increase

Growth rate slowed

Increase of consumer price

Regressive policyDetermined force

100% rice 5% rice 10% rice 15% rice 20% rice 25% rice AI broken rice1972J une 1,737 1,737 1,579 1,551 1,532 1,515 1,351J uly 1,799 1,637 1,601 1,571 1,555 1,538 1,411

August 2,218 2,055 2,002 1,976 1,975 1,939 1,629September 2,209 2,035 1,969 1,934 1,907 1,884 1,641

October 2,325 2,176 2,115 2,084 2,061 2,042 1,726November 2,524 2,340 2,235 2,201 2,173 2,144 1,848December 2,674 2,471 2,346 2,312 2,279 2,254 2,036

1973年J anuary 2,504 2,360 2,233 2,194 2,163 2,137 1,848

February 2,783 2,603 2,458 2,410 2,377 2,343 1,837March 2,831 2,699 2,368 2,314 2,280 2,247 1,742April 2,892 2,761 2,551 2,392 2,358 2,325 1,896May 3,151 2,988 2,874 2,651 2,459 2,445 1,942J une 3,380 3,224 2,873 2,873 2,657 2,607 1,945J uly 3,292 3,142 2,992 2,758 2,525 2,492 1,792

Transitiontion of rice price about whole sell ton/baht（ ）

　　　 1972, June: 1737 baht/1t　　　 1973, June: 3380 baht/1ta 　　　 →　 Government ban on rice export

Rice price in 1973 was impacted by the poor crop in prior year

Table2:

⋆ 1973 students revolution

Double price

Source: Year book of Asian affair (1974)

Figure7: Consumer price index rate of urban area in ThailandSource: Year book of Asian affair (1974)

 

Food

All item

Garment

(month)

1973a

Poor crop of rice↓

Rice Price rose

Other goods price indexes rose

Consumer price index

↓

Student revolution occurs

↓

‣What did policy adopted in Tanin government?‣What was the economic situation at that time?

Look on!!

⋆1977 coup Kriansak Chomanan policy statement ‣ To escape from the political and economic crisis

Table3

Anti-communistic policy under Tanin government

1Suspension of publication on journalBuilt an institution of censorship

2Intensive penalty against communist Ex) Arresting people if she have communistic book published before June 6, 1976

3 Enough the anti-communistic education fit in Korean model

4Village scoutEducation of anti-communistic farmer (by adding care)

5Downright military cleanup operationAt that time: Doing curfew, Imposing an economic blockadeSource: The Developing Economies year book (1978)

Enforced anti-communism

Two important policies1. Educate the anti-communistic organization in

village

2. Downright military cleanup operation by blocking a border

While Tanin government was carrying out the anti-communist policy, he was a very incompetent to economic policy……For example

GDP growth rate 8,2 ％→ 6,2 ％Consumer Price Index 4.1 ％→ 7.6 ％ Unemployment Rate rises 5%

Agricultural production -1%

Production volume of grain -2.8%

Thanin government

Strong anti-communist policy

Sacrifice economic growth

1977 Coup

Domestic frustration and economic crisis

‣3-2.1991 coup analysis Focus on Asian trend data base and Statistics

Figure 8. Growth rate of real GDP in Thailand (2005 US $ basis)

Source: the author from world bank data

The real GDP growth rate from 1988 through 1991 shows the high growth rate of more than 9% of things that the tendency to some falls is seen

Cause

we look at changes in the various indicators coming related to life, such as the consumer price index...

Source: author based Institute of Developing Economies Asia trend database Source: author based Institute of Developing Economies Asia trend database

‣3-3.What happened in 1970s and 1991 years?？1970s 1990economic factor economic factor○ ×

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19950

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Figure12 Per-capita GDP in Thaico

nsta

nt 2

005　

US$

Source: World bank data1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Figure13 Per-capita GDP growth rate

Source: World bank data より筆者作成

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19950

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Figure14 GDP growth in Thai [1978-1995]m

illio

n us

$

Source: world bank data

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000160000

Figure14 GDP growth in Thai [1978-1995]

mill

ion

us$

Source: world bank data

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%

Figure13 　 Per-capita GDP growth rate

Source: World bank data より筆者作成19

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

950

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Figure12 Per-capita GDP in Thaico

nsta

nt 2

005　

US$

Source: World bank data より筆者作成

Change in the growth rate in 1986 as a boundary was observed.

19781979

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

Figure13 Each Industry Ratio of GDP

industry Logarithmic (industry) agriculture Logarithmic (agriculture) service Logarithmic (service)

年

%

Source World bank dataSource: World bank data

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

20000000000

40000000000

60000000000

80000000000

100000000000

120000000000

Figure14: GDP process by Industry

industry agriculture service

US＄

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19910

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Figure17 trend of Direct Investment(1million bath)

direct investment

Source: yearbook of Asia affairs

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19920

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Figure16 main exports goods of exports value(1million bath)

米 ゴム タピオカ 砂糖 エビ 集積回路 繊維製品Source: yearbook of Asia affairs

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Figure15 percentage of food export (% of merchandise exports)

％

source: world bank data 

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19910

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Figure17 trend of Direct Investment(1million bath)

direct investment

Source: yearbook of Asia affairs

1986 1987

Application to the investment committee of Thailand for Investment

431 1057→

JAPAN 　202TAIWAN 　178

Major countries

1976 1981 1986 1988 1990 1992 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Figure19 Average monthly income per family 　 base period of1976

Whole KingdomCentralNortheasternNorthernSourthern

source: statistical yearbook thailand

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19910

100

200

300

400

500

600

Figure20 Transition of the number of strikesTh

e nu

mbe

r of s

trike

s

source: ILOstat

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19910

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Figure21 Transition of the number of strikesTh

e nu

mbe

r of s

trike

s

Figure21: Source:ILOstat

1970s

economic crisis

1991

Chapter4. ConclusionThe cause of coup in 1970s was an Economic Crisis

Worsening index of Economics overall (price , unemployment)

Relationship of Rice and Coup?

The relationship domestic and international price of rice and the coup

Production volume of rice and the coup does not matter×

Coup

The economic factors were missing in the 1970's and 1991 is but as mentioned above…the essence of the coup occurred is a confrontation between the government and the military.

1970s Coup Economic crisisIt has been resolved by the large influx of foreign capital

1991 Coup Conflict of Government and Militaryover corruption

Cause

the Plaza Accord

In other words

The essence of the coup is between the government and the military

1970s

1991

Economics Crisis

CorruptionFrom 1970s to 1991, relationship of Government and Military is not changed

Economics improves for the better by Plaza Accord

The dissatisfaction of people is broken off, became indifference about politics

Only conflict between Government and Military have been close-up

Referencesアジア経済研究所『アジア動向年報』 1970 年版 (1970)-1992 年版 (1992) 　アジア経済研究所 下條芳明 (2013) 「タイ憲法政治の特色と国王概念 : 比較文明的な視点を交えて」『九州産業大学商学会』 玉田芳史・船津鶴代 (2008) 「タイ政治・行政の変革 1991 － 2006 」『アジア経済研究所』 山本博史 (2011) 「タイ―民主主義の行方」『経済貿易研究』 37 号、 3 月、 133-148 Astri Suhrke and Charles E. Morrison(1972)”Thailand―Yet Another Coup”, The world Today., Vol. 28, No. 3 (Mar., 1972), pp. 117-123 , Royal Institute of International Affairs Federico Ferrara (2011)” Thailand: minimally stable, minimally democratic”, International Political Science Review / Revue internationale de science politique, Vol. 32, Sage Publications, Ltd. James Ockey (2007)” Thailand's 'Professional Soldiers' and Coup-making:The Coup of 2006, Crossroads: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007), pp. 95-127, Northern Illinois University Center for Southeast Asian Studies Michael L. Mezey (1973), “The 1971 Coup in Thailand: Understanding Why the Legislature Fails”, Asian Survey, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Mar., 1973), pp. 306-317, University of California Press Stable  National Statistical Office, “statistical year book thailand” No. 24 ([1963])-no. 49 (2002); 2003 (2003)-2006 (2006) 2007(2007)2009(2009)-2013(2013), National Statistical Office Robert B. Albritton and Thawilwadee Bureekul(2007)” Public Opinion and Political Power: Sources of Support for the Coup in Thailand”, Crossroads: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007), pp. 20-49, Northern Illinois University Center for Southeast Asian Studies Roger Vrooman (2007)” THE ROLE OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN THAILAND’S LAST TWO COUPS D’ ETAT”, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Suchit Bunbongkarn(1992)” Thailand in 1991: Coping with Military Guardianship”, Asian Survey, Vol. 32, No. 2, A Survey of Asia in 1991: Part II (Feb., 1992), pp. 131-139 , University of California Press International Labour Organization, ”ILOSTAT”,http://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/oracle/webcenter/portalapp/pagehierarchy/Page131.jspx?_afrLoop=95798875069981&clean=true#%40%3F_afrLoop%3D95798875069981%26clean%3Dtrue%26_adf.ctrl-state%3Dqf50b3s64_9, （ accessed 2015-08-06 ） world bank, “world bank data”, http://data.worldbank.org/, （ accessed 2015-08-06 ） アジア経済研究所「アジア動向データベース」http://d-arch.ide.go.jp/infolib/meta/MetDefault.exe?DEF_XSL=FullSearch&GRP_ID=G0000001&DB_ID=G0000001ASIADB&IS_TYPE=meta&IS_STYLE=default　(最終アクセス日2015年8月6日 )