G R O W T H

a r i s ing t ide

INFRASTRUCTURE

QUAL ITY OF L IFE

ENVIRONMENT

C O L L A P S E

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GOVERNANCE

QUAL ITY OF L IFE

ENVIRONMENT

four v i s ions of energy futuresC O N S T R A I N T

shar ing the load

ECONOMY

QUAL ITY OF L IFE

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

a new dawn

GOVERNANCE

ECONOMICS

QUAL ITY OF L IFE

six act ion domainscritical components of a successful energy future

R E S O U R C E SI N F R A S T R U C T U R E

G O V E R N A N C EE C O N O M YQ U A L I T Y O F L I F EE N V I R O N M E N T

shut downThe technological breakthrough never came, conservation failed,

and reactive government policy was too little too late. Alternative

energies could not scale fast enough through market forces. The

world struggled to salvage the once robust and reliable energy

infrastructure. Energy prices have become exorbitant and getting

fuel to vital machines is a constant battle. out of this almost total

energy collapse, however, a new energy future is emerging. The u.S.,

having let its energy infrastructure crumble, is now a leapfrog nation,

and distributed, renewable energy systems are being developed.

Local microgrids hold great promise to take hold in the emerging

regenerative economy.

a new dawnThere was never any energy shortage on Earth, only a shortage

in the amount of energy humans were able to harness and put to work. Tapping into this abundance of energy is leading the world

toward a total transformation of human society and marks a cosmic civilizational shift. Led by technological advances in solar power,

including widespread success of the artificial leaf, the improvement in solar efficiency and costs, and the deployment of space-based

solar arrays, humans have begun to use that giant nuclear reactor, the Sun, more effectively and efficiently than ever before. If the pace of

technological advancement continues, some think we will reach the 174 petawatt mark by 2033, just eight years from now.

shar ing the loadIn 2025, oil spills, nuclear meltdowns, obscene profits for fuel producers, and accelerating climate disruptions have finally catalyzed the political will for more direct and heavy-handed government control over every aspect of the energy industry. The u.S. government did not wait for renewables to catch up and replace fossil fuels and nuclear power. Instead, it implemented a series of mandatory efficiency and conservation efforts to strictly regulate demand, and sustainably generate supplies. utilities were highly regulated, as were private homes. While energy is not the ubiquitous resource it once was, if managed properly, there is enough for everyone to meet their needs, without destroying the environment or leading to energy wars.

a r i s ing t ideAbundant and reliable energy are necessary to maintain economic

and social stability. By 2025, both public and private sector strategies

have created massive resource investment and incentive structures to

encourage more rapid growth in the energy sector. Energy producers

using fossil fuels, nuclear, wind, solar, and other renewables have all

seen significant return on their investments. unprecedented energy

innovation in both production and distribution infrastructures, as well

as services and applications associated with the smart grid, have

produced record profits and job growth. Carbon emissions and climate

change have not slowed, but climate disruptions have led to innovative

adaptations, including some small-scale geoengineering projects

yielding locally positive results.

c o n s t R a i n t

G R o W t H c o l l a p s e

t R a n s f o R M at i o n

›› Regional, not national, resilience

›› Struggles over energy mandates

›› Personhood rights for Earth

›› New resources = new power brokers

›› Locally owned energy

›› Rise of disaster economics

›› Renewables reach the tipping point

›› Extended producer responsibility: cradle-to- cradle

›› Motivating high-tech workers with a new mission

›› Peak energy use at the global level

›› Religious organizations take on power

›› Personal data systems become more vulnerable

›› Persuasive technology drives behavior change

›› Purchasing access, not ownership

›› New energy retail

›› Garbage in, energy out

›› Wind, water, and solar for the win

›› Recycling heat

›› Costly nukes

›› Solar Moore’s Law

›› Smart buildings

›› Energy islanding

›› Plugged-in mobility

›› Apps for energy

›› Energy data in the cloud

›› Energy conscious food

›› Growing scrutiny of water for energy production

›› Temperatures on the rise

›› Energy locavores

›› Geo-engineering the climate

FORECASTS

FORECASTS

FORECASTS

FORECASTS

FORECASTS

FORECASTS e c o n o M y

How will we innovate strong jobs, services, and

products based on the energy economy?

Q U a l i t y o f l i f e

How will we build a new relationship to energy to

support better lifestyles?

R e s o U R c e s

How will we redefine fuels and waste?

i n f R a s t R U c t U R e

How will we interact with new fixed,

mobile, and virtual infrastructures?

e n v i R o n M e n t

How will we reinvent our responses to accelerating

environmental volatility?

G o v e R n a n c e

How will we re-allocate control over energy in a world

of new power politics?

Steps in identifying and calculating GHG emmisions

Identify sources

Select calculation approach

Collect data and choose emission factors

Apply calculation tools

Roll-up data to corporate level

Growth of full-cost MetricsRobust accounting systems such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol are enabling companies to develop comprehensive and reliable inventories of their GHG emissions.

Agile Energy ProductsFenix International’s ReadySet is a safe,

rechargeable battery system for charging small devices

when the grid is down or nonexistent.

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PlugShareThis mobile app provides information on charging stations for electric vehicles, and indicates homes and businesses that volunteer to share outlets for recharging.

Distribution Wind RoseNew professions and tools, such as graphs to plot the distribution of wind resources, are helping reframe land use at the local level.

Mitsubishi Energy BeamMitsubishi Electric Corp. and

IHI Corporation have partnered in a 2 trillion yen ($21 billion)

Japanese project to beam solar energy to earth within the

next three decades.

vanishing WorldsThis documentary tells the

story of three families in Alaska, India, and China,

whose lives are already being affected by changing

climates.

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BloomEnergy’s fuel Cell ServersBloomEnergy’s fuel cell “servers,” deployed in 2010 for customers including Google, eBay, and Walmart, are an early signal of reemerging commercial interest in fuel cell technologies.

Rethinking WasteEnerkem will operate a plant

slated to open in 2012 for industrial scale production of

biofuels from municipal waste.

Energy Soft LandingsBloomington, Indiana has joined the Transition Towns movement, creating an “energy descent action plan” for a postpeak world.

New Legal CategoriesNations like Bolivia are part of a burgeoning movement

to declare “personhood” for planet Earth, granting it the rights of any human citizen.

vatican Highlights GHGThe Pontifical Academy of Sciences is one of a growing number of religious authorities bringing issues of climate change and environmental futures to worshippers around the world.

MeterReadMobile apps make behavior change easier. You can set up multiple meters to track

your home, solar panels, or car, or to make personal projections of future usage

patterns.

HOW TO USE THIS MAPexplore the present, envision the future

ENGAGE the Action Domains

EXPLORE the Alternative Future Scenarios

SCAN the Signals

Acknowledgements

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

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