Regretful Signings?

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REGRETFUL SIGNINGS? BY: KEVIN PHIL LIPS NONPARAMETRI CS HARTLAUB

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Regretful Signings?. By: Kevin Phillips Nonparametrics Hartlaub. Erick Dampier. The Burning Questions. Do players decline in production after signing a new contract? Does signing with a new team alter production? 2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012 (after lockout) 2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Regretful Signings?

Page 1: Regretful Signings?

REGRETFUL S

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B Y: K

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ERIC

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Do players decline in production after signing a new contract?

Does signing with a new team alter production?

2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012 (after lockout)

2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013

Look at Statistics of all players signing a new contract between the two seasons

THE BURNING QUESTIONS

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2-Sample T-Test

Minutes per Game (MPG)

Assists per Game (APG)

Rebounds per Game (RPG)

Points per Game (PPG)

Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

Krustkal-Wallis Test

Minutes per Game (MPG)

Assists per Game (APG)

Rebounds per Game (RPG)

Points per Game (PPG)

Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

IS RE-SIGNING A FACTOR?

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YesNo

15

10

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Re-sign?

MP

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-Old

Boxplot of MPG New-Old

YesNo

3

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-2

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Re-sign?

AP

G N

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Boxplot of APG New-Old

YesNo

5.0

2.5

0.0

-2.5

-5.0

-7.5

Re-sign?

RP

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ew

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Boxplot of RPG New-Old

YesNo

5.0

2.5

0.0

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-7.5

Re-sign?

PPG N

ew

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Boxplot of PPG New-Old

YesNo

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PER

New

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Boxplot of PER New-Old

Box Plots (2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012)

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YesNo

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MP

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Boxplot of MPG New-Old

YesNo

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AP

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Boxplot of APG New-Old

YesNo

7.5

5.0

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0.0

-2.5

-5.0

Re-Sign

RP

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Boxplot of RPG New-Old

YesNo

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PPG N

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Boxplot of PPG New-Old

YesNo

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PER

New

-Old

Boxplot of PER New-Old

Box Plots (2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013)

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Minutes per Game (MPG): T=-2.55, P-Value=0.012*

Assists per Game (APG) :T=-1.20, P-Value=0.234

Rebounds per Game (RPG): T=-2.75, P-Value=0.007*

Points per Game (PPG): T=-2.83, P-Value=0.006*

Player Efficiency Rating (PER): T=-0.82, P-Value=0.416

RESULTS 2010-2011

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RESULTS 2011-2012 VS. 2012-2013

MPG: T=-0.30, P-Value=0.767

APG: T=-1.29, P-Value=0.199

RPG: T=1.05, P-Value=0.296

PPG: T=0.78. P-Value=0.438

PER: T=1.65, P-Value=0.102

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20100-10-20

99.9

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80706050403020

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Data

Perc

ent -0.6364 5.646 107 0.229 0.805

-0.08785 0.7907 107 3.119 <0.005

-0.1654 1.436 107 1.455 <0.005-0.5364 2.765 107 0.376 0.407-0.5963 3.819 107 0.934 0.017

Mean StDev N AD P

MPG New-OldAPG New-OldRPG New-OldPPG New-OldPER New-Old

Variable

Probability Plot of MPG New-Old, APG New-Old, RPG New-Old, ...Normal - 95% CI

2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012

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50403020100-10-20-30

99.9

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Data

Perc

ent -1.428 6.410 105 0.371 0.417

-0.1848 1.065 105 3.240 <0.005-0.2981 1.428 105 1.385 <0.005-0.6933 3.098 105 0.266 0.684-0.2895 7.043 105 5.895 <0.005

Mean StDev N AD P

MPG New-OldAPG New-OldRPG New-OldPPG New-OldPER New-Old

Variable

Probability Plot of MPG New-Old, APG New-Old, RPG New-Old, ...Normal - 95% CI

2011-2012 vs. 2012-2013

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KRUSKAL-WALLIS TEST RESULTS

2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2

MPG: K=4.70, P-Value=0.030*

APG: K=3.88, P-Value=0.049*

RPG: K=5.38, P-Value=0.020*

PPG: K=6.24, P-Value=0.012*

PER: K=0.27, P-Value=0.602

2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3

MPG: K=0.19, p-Value=0.662

APG: K=0.96, p-Value=0.327

RPG: K=0.69, p-Value=0.406

PPG: K=0.35, p-Value=0.552

PER: K=2.43, p-Value=0.119

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SIGN-TEST RESULTS

2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2

MPG: θ=-1.200, p-Value=0.2460

APG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.1258

RPG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.4260

PPG: θ=-0.6000, p-Value=0.0650

PER: θ=-0.7000, p-Value=0.1451

2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3

MPG: θ=-2.300, p-Value=0.0510

APG: θ=-0.1000, p-Value=0.1980

RPG: θ=-0.2000, p-Value=0.0228*

PPG: θ=-0.8000, p-Value=0.0761

PER: θ=-0.5000, p-Value=0.1184

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CONCLUSIONS

2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 1 V S . 2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2

Re-signing was a factor for every statistics except for PER

Not enough evidence for any statistic to say that there was a significant difference in production after signing a new contract

2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 2 V S . 2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3

There wasn’t sufficient evidence to conclude that there was a significant difference because of re-signing or not.

Only RPG had enough sufficient evidence to conclude that there was a significant difference in production after signing a new contract