Regional Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets for Automobiles and Light Trucks Pursuant to Senate Bill 375

California Air Resources Board

September 23, 2010

22

TodayToday’’s Proposed Actions Proposed Action

�� Consider greenhouse gas emission Consider greenhouse gas emission

reduction targets for passenger vehicles reduction targets for passenger vehicles

for 18 regions in Californiafor 18 regions in California

�� Promote better transportation and land Promote better transportation and land

use planninguse planning

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SB 375 Promotes a More IntegratedSB 375 Promotes a More Integrated

Regional Planning ProcessRegional Planning Process

�� More planning on a regional scaleMore planning on a regional scale

�� A common vision for the future A common vision for the future

�� Aligns programs for actionAligns programs for action

44

Public Health Benefits of Public Health Benefits of

Better PlanningBetter Planning

�� Reduced air pollutionReduced air pollution

�� Improved community design Improved community design �� More More walkablewalkable neighborhoodsneighborhoods

�� More green spaceMore green space

�� Less traffic Less traffic

�� Enhanced quality of lifeEnhanced quality of life

55

CaliforniaCalifornia’’s Sustainable Communities and s Sustainable Communities and

Climate Protection Act of 2008 (SB 375)Climate Protection Act of 2008 (SB 375)

�� Regions design Sustainable Communities Regions design Sustainable Communities

Strategies as part of the planning processStrategies as part of the planning process

�� To help guide regional efforts, ARB sets To help guide regional efforts, ARB sets

targetstargets

�� Targets are not regulatoryTargets are not regulatory

�� Targets will be revised over time Targets will be revised over time

66

Metropolitan Planning OrganizationsMetropolitan Planning Organizations

Percent of Statewide Population and

Passenger Vehicle GHG Emissions

10%

5%

2%

83%

4 largest MPOs 8 SJV MPOs

6 other MPOs Non-MPOs

77

Builds on Current Sustainable Builds on Current Sustainable

Planning EffortsPlanning Efforts

�� Most MPO regions participate in blueprint Most MPO regions participate in blueprint

growth scenario planning growth scenario planning

�� Many cities are updating General Plans Many cities are updating General Plans

and developing Climate Action Plans for and developing Climate Action Plans for

sustainability sustainability

�� Travel trends already show improvementTravel trends already show improvement

�� Local efforts will become the building Local efforts will become the building

blocks of SCS developmentblocks of SCS development

88

Regional Transportation PlansRegional Transportation Plans

�� 11--2 year planning process2 year planning process

�� State and federal laws establish the process State and federal laws establish the process

and contentand content

�� Plans includePlans include�� Policy ElementPolicy Element

�� Sustainable Communities Strategy Sustainable Communities Strategy

�� Action ElementAction Element

�� Financial ElementFinancial Element

�� Must be updated every 4 to 5 yearsMust be updated every 4 to 5 years

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SCS Development and APS if SCS Development and APS if

NeededNeeded

�� Regions develop plans to meet targetsRegions develop plans to meet targets

�� Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS)

added to Regional Transportation Planadded to Regional Transportation Plan

�� Alternative Planning Strategy (APS) Alternative Planning Strategy (APS)

required if SCS doesnrequired if SCS doesn’’t meet targett meet target

�� APS must identify impediments to APS must identify impediments to

achieving the target within the SCSachieving the target within the SCS

�� SBSB 375 creates incentives to implement 375 creates incentives to implement

either the SCS/APSeither the SCS/APS

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Air Resources Board RoleAir Resources Board Role

�� Set regional greenhouse gas emissions Set regional greenhouse gas emissions

reduction targets for passenger vehicles reduction targets for passenger vehicles

�� Review regional methods for quantifying Review regional methods for quantifying

greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases

�� Review regional plans developed to meet Review regional plans developed to meet

targetstargets

�� Update targetsUpdate targets

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Development of Proposed TargetsDevelopment of Proposed Targets

�� Regional Targets Advisory CommitteeRegional Targets Advisory Committee

�� % reduction in GHG/capita from 2005 levels % reduction in GHG/capita from 2005 levels

�� Collaborative approach with MPOsCollaborative approach with MPOs

�� Funding and other resources and incentives Funding and other resources and incentives

�� MPO roleMPO role

�� Provide target recommendationsProvide target recommendations

�� Exchange data with ARBExchange data with ARB

�� Public engagementPublic engagement

1212

How Regional Targets WorkHow Regional Targets Work

17.9

19.0

20.2

21.3

22.4

23.5

2005 2020 2035

CO

2/c

ap

ita

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

% R

ed

uct

ion

in

CO

2/c

ap

ita

fro

m 2

00

5

1313

Emission Impacts of Proposed Emission Impacts of Proposed

TargetsTargetsCurrent plans

Proposed

targets

Vehicles, Fuels,

and SB375

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2005 2020 2035

An

nu

al C

O2

Em

issi

on

s (M

MT

CO

2/y

r)

MPO Scenario Analyses MPO Scenario Analyses

and Recommendationsand Recommendations

1515

MPO Target Setting ScenariosMPO Target Setting Scenarios

�� Informative, but not the SCSInformative, but not the SCS

�� Best available reference for target settingBest available reference for target setting

�� Examples of strategies evaluated:Examples of strategies evaluated:

�� Increased compact developmentIncreased compact development

�� Expansion of transit networkExpansion of transit network

�� JobsJobs--housing balancehousing balance

�� PricingPricing

�� Include some common assumptionsInclude some common assumptions

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Overview of ARB Staff ProposalOverview of ARB Staff Proposal

�� Four Large MPOsFour Large MPOs

�� Reflect analyses completed by MPO technical Reflect analyses completed by MPO technical

staff and recommendations of their Boardsstaff and recommendations of their Boards

�� SanSan Joaquin Valley MPOs (incl. Kern Co.)Joaquin Valley MPOs (incl. Kern Co.)

�� Establish placeholder targets now and Establish placeholder targets now and

recalibrate in 2012 if neededrecalibrate in 2012 if needed

�� Remaining Six MPOsRemaining Six MPOs

�� Reflect current plan projections and Reflect current plan projections and

recommendations of their Boardsrecommendations of their Boards

1717

San Diego Region San Diego Region -- SANDAGSANDAG

�� Scenarios include increased compact Scenarios include increased compact

growth, new demand and system growth, new demand and system

efficiency measures, enhanced alternative efficiency measures, enhanced alternative

mode options mode options

�� SANDAG Board approved on July 23SANDAG Board approved on July 23

�� 7 percent reduction for 2020 7 percent reduction for 2020

�� 13 percent reduction for 203513 percent reduction for 2035

1818

Sacramento Region Sacramento Region -- SACOGSACOG

�� Scenarios include increased compact Scenarios include increased compact

growth, enhancements to transit, system growth, enhancements to transit, system

and demand management compared to and demand management compared to

current plan current plan

�� SACOG Board approved on August 19SACOG Board approved on August 19

�� 7 percent reduction for 2020 7 percent reduction for 2020

�� 16 percent reduction for 203516 percent reduction for 2035

1919

Bay Area Region Bay Area Region -- MTCMTC

�� Scenarios include more focused growth and Scenarios include more focused growth and

greater reliance on road pricing compared greater reliance on road pricing compared

to current planto current plan

�� MTC Board approved on July 28MTC Board approved on July 28

�� 7 percent reduction for 2020 7 percent reduction for 2020

�� 15 percent reduction for 203515 percent reduction for 2035

2020

SanSan JoaquinJoaquin Valley MPOs Valley MPOs (incl. Kern Co.)(incl. Kern Co.)

�� Expected improvements in available data Expected improvements in available data and modeling capability; pending policy and modeling capability; pending policy decisionsdecisions

�� SJVAPCD Board recommended on Sept. 16SJVAPCD Board recommended on Sept. 16

�� 2 percent reduction for 20202 percent reduction for 2020

�� 5 percent reduction for 20355 percent reduction for 2035

�� Directors of all eight MPOs support Air Directors of all eight MPOs support Air District recommendationDistrict recommendation

2121

Southern California Region Southern California Region -- SCAGSCAG

�� Scenarios include focused growth near Scenarios include focused growth near

transit investments, and new transit investments, and new

transportation system efficiencies transportation system efficiencies

�� SCAG Board approved on Sept. 2SCAG Board approved on Sept. 2

�� 6 percent reduction for 2020 6 percent reduction for 2020

�� 8 percent reduction for 20358 percent reduction for 2035

�� SCAG Board open to more aggressive SCAG Board open to more aggressive

targets if ARB accepts recommendations targets if ARB accepts recommendations

Implementation IssuesImplementation Issues

2323

Funding IssuesFunding Issues

�� Transportation Transportation

�� Local planning and redevelopmentLocal planning and redevelopment

�� Sustainable planning demonstration Sustainable planning demonstration

projects, recognition and awards programsprojects, recognition and awards programs

2424

Tool ImprovementTool Improvement

�� Tools that help regional and local agencies Tools that help regional and local agencies

assess impacts of land use and assess impacts of land use and

transportation policy decisions community transportation policy decisions community

livability of their communities must be livability of their communities must be

improved improved

�� Update travel models and forecasting toolsUpdate travel models and forecasting tools

�� Improve dataImprove data

�� Find appropriate performance indicatorsFind appropriate performance indicators

2525

Implementation TimelineImplementation Timeline

ARB sets targetsARB sets targets TodayToday

MPO model and data updatesMPO model and data updates onon--goinggoing

MPO MPO SCSsSCSs under SB 375under SB 375 20112011--20142014

ARB informational updateARB informational update 2012 2012

ARB target revisionsARB target revisions 20142014