REGIONAL FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES: QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VOLUMES Bill Anderson...
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REGIONAL FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES: QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VOLUMES Bill Anderson ([email protected]) Ontario Research Chair in Cross-Border Transportation Policy, University of Windsor, www.uwindsor.ca/crossborder/ Transportation Border Working Group Dearborn, MI, April 24, 2013
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Transcript of REGIONAL FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES: QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VOLUMES Bill Anderson...
REGIONAL FREIGHT PERSPECTIVES:QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF VOLUMES
Bill Anderson ([email protected])Ontario Research Chair in Cross-Border Transportation Policy, University of Windsor, www.uwindsor.ca/crossborder/
Transportation Border Working Group
Dearborn, MI, April 24, 2013
Background
Ontario has a trade dependent economy 80% of trade with the US US trade greater than interprovincial
trade 75% by truck 90% of trucks at four crossings
Google: The Border and the Ontario Economy
Highway distance (km) from Toronto
Buffal
oSy
racu
seDet
roit
Clev
elan
dPi
ttsb
urgh
Mon
trea
lAt
lant
aW
inni
peg
New
Orlea
ns
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Traffic projections for new bridge (million vehicles per year)
year
Wilbur Smith(MDOT)
Halcrow(Amb. Bridge)
cars trucks cars trucks
2015 2.92 1.89
2016 3.07 2.74
2025 4.42 3.92 2.46 2.16
2035 6.00 4.87 2.47 2.35
Some key question on the future of freight volumes
Will the downward trend in non-oil Canada-US trade continue?
Will the average value of truckloads increase?
Will cross-border automotive supply chains expand or contract?
Will global trade across Ontario-US borders increase?
Canadian exports to the US: Total and Oil and Gas
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Oil and Gas All others
Value per truckload
If value per increases, truck movements won’t keep pace with trade trends
Limited evidence of increase Factors
Industry mix Value of goods within industries (shift to
high value goods with global competition)
Cross-border automotive supply chains
Automotive industry is in a post-recession growth cycle
Canada’s share of North American automotive investment is down (Globe and Mail, April 12)
“New domestics” more likely to source locally than across the border.
Global trade
Almost 30% of Canada’s marine/rail imports destined to US
Asia-Pacific Gateway project Expansion potential in Halifax and
Montreal Halifax can handle large draft Potential for intermodal expansion in
Detroit
