Regional Food Security and Nutrition Working Group

Ebola Outbreak: Food Security Update

FAO - WFP

27 novembre 2014

Geographical distribution of new cases and total cases in Guinea, Liberia, Mali and Sierra Leone (WHO, Ebola response road map,26 November 2014)

15 935 reported cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), with 5689 reported deaths.

600 cases were reported in the three most-affected countries in the past week.

Case incidence is stable in Guinea, stable or declining in Liberia, but may still be increasing in Sierra Leone.

Disease Impact on Agriculture - Simulation (DIAS) Model 1/ Summary Results

• Preliminary results to be revised with additional information

• Short term impact on production of staple food crops at national level: a. Rice -in the order of -5% in Guinea, -10% Sierra Leone and -15% in

Liberia. (compared to last year)b. Results seem consistent because in Liberia incidence was later but

steeper, affecting rice growing (lab and other inputs) and harvesting period; In Guinea - cases remained low through growing and harvesting period.

c. Impact on cassava production is estimated to be much lower ranging from 1% to 5% in the same order as rice, for 3 countries. Mainly due to very low use of other labour-associated material inputs.

d. Maize, in Guinea is also estimated to decline by about 5%. e. The relatively low level of impact at the national level masks the sub-

national production and food security impacts. For example, impact on county rice production is estimated as high as -9% in Nzerekore in Guinea, -24% in Lofa and Margibi in Liberia and -20% in Kailahun in Sierra Leone.

• It should be noted that these results reflect comparison of with-Ebola and without-Ebola situation. The Ebola impact results are useful as they show the extent of potential losses of agricultural production due to the crisis and can serve as a guide for the type of and the areas for response interventions.

1/ Based on the simulation model developed by Dr. Kisan Gunjal, FAO International Consultant

%

Reduction from

2013/14 production

('000 t)

Rice

Guinea -4% -58

Liberia -16% -28

Sierra Leone -9% -66 Cassava

Guinea -1%

Liberia -6%

Sierra Leone -4% Maize

Guinea -4% -26

1/ Based on average of stable and WFP's high cases projections scenario.

Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone: Food insecurity remains high in spite of the harvest

Special mVAM Regional Bulletin #1: November 2014

• Despite the start of the main harvest, little-to-no effect on indicators in high EVD-affected zones of all countries has been observed, including Forest Guinea (Guinea), Lofa County (Liberia) and Kailahun District (Sierra Leone), where people are continuing to implement severe coping strategies.

• The geography of food insecurity is shifting as the epidemic spreads. For instance, decreased wages and terms of trade are observed in the newly cordoned-off Northern Province in Sierra Leone, where many new EVD cases have been registered since September.

• In Liberia and Sierra Leone, food security impacts appear less severe in urban areas than in rural ones.

• While imported rice prices are generally stable, the price of local rice has dropped noticeably in production areas of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as new supplies are brought to market.

• The EVD outbreak may be disrupting wage labour markets in newly-affected areas of Sierra Leone. Wage rates remain low in Lofa.

Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone: coping strategies

•Guinea: Coping highest in Nzerekore and Conakry;

•Liberia: rCSI remains stable at high levels in Lofa County;

•Sierra Leone: Improvement in rCSI with risk in newly-cordoned EVD areas

Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone: markets

• Markets: prices for local rice fall as the harvest begins;

• Wage rates remain sensitive to the incidence of EVD;

• Wage-to-rice terms of trade remain low in Lofa County and in Forest Guinea. They have declined in newly EVD-affected areas of Sierra Leone

To download mVAM data on the ebola-affected countries, please visit: http://vam.wfp.org/sites/mvam_monitoring/index.html

Key events

• PREGEC, Dakar, 18-20 November- Joint presentation on the Food security and Nutrition situation (CILSS, FAO, FEWS NET, UNICEF, WFP) ;• RPCA, Brussels, 18 December:

• Joint presentation on the Food Security and Nutrition situation (updated analysis) - CILSS, FAO, FEWS NET, UNICEF, WFP ;

• Joint presentation on the Food Security and Nutrition response- FAO, UNICEF, WFP

• Joint market analysis missions with a focus on the western basin, February 2015? (CILSS, FAO, FEWS NET, WFP and goverments)

• “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis on Ebola affected countries prior to next PREGEC cycle- March 2015? (to be confirmed)